Gale Warning 425, NWS Anchorage, AK

207 
FZAK51 PAFC 312338
CWFAER

COASTAL WATERS FORECAST
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ANCHORAGE ALASKA
338 PM AKDT TUE MAY 31 2016

COASTAL WATERS FORECAST FOR THE NORTHERN GULF OF ALASKA COAST
UP TO 100 NM OUT INCLUDING KODIAK ISLAND AND COOK INLET.

WIND FORECASTS REFLECT THE PREDOMINANT SPEED AND DIRECTION
EXPECTED. SEA FORECASTS REPRESENT AN AVERAGE OF THE HIGHEST
ONE-THIRD OF THE COMBINED WIND WAVE AND SWELL HEIGHT.

PKZ197-011300-
338 PM AKDT TUE MAY 31 2016
.SYNOPSIS FOR THE NORTH GULF COAST+KODIAK ISLAND WATERS+
COOK INLET...
A FRONT OVER THE SOUTHERN GULF REMAINS NEARLY STATIONARY AS IT
WEAKENS THROUGH THU AFTERNOON.

$$

PKZ119-011300-
CAPE SUCKLING TO CAPE CLEARE-
338 PM AKDT TUE MAY 31 2016

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY THROUGH WEDNESDAY...

.TONIGHT...E WIND 25 KT. SEAS 11 FT.
.WED...NE WIND 20 KT. SEAS 8 FT.
.WED NIGHT...E WIND 20 KT. SEAS 7 FT.
.THU...E WIND 15 KT. SEAS 7 FT.
.THU NIGHT...E WIND 20 KT. SEAS 7 FT.
.FRI THROUGH SAT...SE WIND 20 KT. SEAS 8 FT.
.SUN...SE WIND 15 KT. SEAS 7 FT.

$$

PKZ120-011300-
CAPE CLEARE TO GORE POINT-
338 PM AKDT TUE MAY 31 2016

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY THROUGH WEDNESDAY...

.TONIGHT...NE WIND 30 KT. SEAS 11 FT.
.WED...NE WIND 20 KT. SEAS 9 FT.
.WED NIGHT...NE WIND 15 KT. SEAS 7 FT.
.THU...E WIND 15 KT. SEAS 6 FT.
.THU NIGHT...E WIND 20 KT. SEAS 7 FT.
.FRI THROUGH SAT...E WIND 20 KT. SEAS 7 FT.
.SUN...E WIND 15 KT. SEAS 7 FT.

$$

PKZ121-011300-
RESURRECTION BAY-
338 PM AKDT TUE MAY 31 2016

.TONIGHT...S WIND 10 KT BECOMING N AFTER MIDNIGHT. SEAS 2 FT.
.WED...N WIND 10 KT BECOMING S IN THE AFTERNOON. SEAS 2 FT. 
.WED NIGHT...S WIND 10 KT BECOMING N AFTER MIDNIGHT. SEAS 2 FT.
.THU...VARIABLE WIND 10 KT. SEAS 2 FT.
.THU NIGHT...N WIND 10 KT. SEAS 2 FT.
.FRI...VARIABLE WIND LESS THAN 10 KT. SEAS 2 FT.
.SAT...VARIABLE WIND 10 KT. SEAS 2 FT.
.SUN...VARIABLE WIND 15 KT. SEAS 2 FT.

$$

PKZ125-011300-
PRINCE WILLIAM SOUND-
338 PM AKDT TUE MAY 31 2016

.TONIGHT...N WIND 10 KT IN THE EVENING BECOMING VARIABLE 
LESS THAN 10 KT. SEAS 2 FT.
.WED...VARIABLE WIND LESS THAN 10 KT. SEAS 2 FT.
.WED NIGHT...VARIABLE WIND LESS THAN 10 KT BECOMING E 10 KT 
AFTER MIDNIGHT. SEAS 2 FT.
.THU AND THU NIGHT...E WIND 10 KT. SEAS 2 FT.
.FRI THROUGH SUN...SE WIND 10 KT. SEAS 2 FT.

$$

PKZ126-011300-
PORT VALDEZ-
338 PM AKDT TUE MAY 31 2016

.TONIGHT...W WIND 10 KT IN THE EVENING BECOMING VARIABLE 
LESS THAN 10 KT. SEAS 2 FT.
.WED...VARIABLE WIND LESS THAN 10 KT BECOMING W 15 KT 
IN THE AFTERNOON. SEAS 3 FT.
.WED NIGHT...W WIND 15 KT IN THE EVENING BECOMING VARIABLE 
LESS THAN 10 KT. SEAS 3 FT.
.THU...SW WIND 10 KT. SEAS 2 FT.
.THU NIGHT...VARIABLE WIND LESS THAN 10 KT. SEAS 2 FT.
.FRI THROUGH SAT...E WIND 10 KT. SEAS 2 FT.
.SUN...VARIABLE WIND LESS THAN 10 KT. SEAS 2 FT.

$$

PKZ127-011300-
VALDEZ NARROWS-
338 PM AKDT TUE MAY 31 2016

.TONIGHT...SW WIND 10 KT BECOMING NE AFTER MIDNIGHT. SEAS 2 FT.
.WED...NE WIND 10 KT BECOMING SW 15 KT IN THE AFTERNOON. SEAS 3 FT.
.WED NIGHT...SW WIND 15 KT BECOMING NE 10 KT AFTER MIDNIGHT. 
SEAS 3 FT.
.THU...VARIABLE WIND 10 KT. SEAS 2 FT.
.THU NIGHT...N WIND 10 KT. SEAS 2 FT.
.FRI...SW WIND 10 KT. SEAS 2 FT.
.SAT THROUGH SUN...VARIABLE WIND 10 KT. SEAS 2 FT.

$$

PKZ128-011300-
VALDEZ ARM-
338 PM AKDT TUE MAY 31 2016

.TONIGHT...VARIABLE WIND LESS THAN 10 KT. SEAS 2 FT.
.WED...VARIABLE WIND LESS THAN 10 KT BECOMING SW 10 KT 
IN THE AFTERNOON. SEAS 2 FT.
.WED NIGHT...SW WIND 10 KT IN THE EVENING BECOMING 
VARIABLE LESS THAN 10 KT. SEAS 2 FT.
.THU...VARIABLE WIND 10 KT. SEAS 2 FT.
.THU NIGHT THROUGH SUN...VARIABLE WIND LESS THAN 10 KT. 
SEAS 2 FT.

$$

PKZ129-011300-
PASSAGE CANAL-
338 PM AKDT TUE MAY 31 2016

.TONIGHT...VARIABLE WIND LESS THAN 10 KT. SEAS 2 FT.
.WED...VARIABLE WIND LESS THAN 10 KT. SEAS 2 FT.
.WED NIGHT...E WIND 10 KT. SEAS 2 FT.
.THU...E WIND 15 KT. SEAS 2 FT.
.THU NIGHT...E WIND 10 KT. SEAS 2 FT.
.FRI...VARIABLE WIND LESS THAN 10 KT. SEAS 2 FT.
.SAT THROUGH SUN...E WIND 10 KT. SEAS 2 FT.

$$

PKZ130-011300-
WEST OF BARREN ISLANDS INCLUDING KAMISHAK BAY-
338 PM AKDT TUE MAY 31 2016

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY TONIGHT...

.TONIGHT...NE WIND 30 KT. SEAS 10 FT.
.WED...NE WIND 20 KT. SEAS 5 FT.
.WED NIGHT...VARIABLE WIND 10 KT. SEAS 3 FT.
.THU...VARIABLE WIND 10 KT. SEAS 3 FT.
.THU NIGHT...E WIND 15 KT. SEAS 4 FT.
.FRI THROUGH SUN...E WIND 15 KT. SEAS 4 FT.

$$

PKZ131-011300-
BARREN ISLANDS EAST-
338 PM AKDT TUE MAY 31 2016

...GALE WARNING TONIGHT...

.TONIGHT...E WIND 35 KT DIMINISHING TO 25 KT AFTER MIDNIGHT. 
SEAS 12 FT. RAIN.
.WED...NE WIND 25 KT. SEAS 10 FT.
.WED NIGHT...NE WIND 15 KT. SEAS 7 FT.
.THU...E WIND 15 KT. SEAS 6 FT.
.THU NIGHT...E WIND 20 KT. SEAS 6 FT.
.FRI THROUGH SUN...SE WIND 20 KT. SEAS 7 FT.

$$

PKZ132-011300-
MARMOT ISLAND TO SITKINAK-
338 PM AKDT TUE MAY 31 2016

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT...

.TONIGHT...E WIND 25 KT. SEAS 10 FT. RAIN.
.WED...E WIND 20 KT. SEAS 9 FT. RAIN SHOWERS.
.WED NIGHT...NE WIND 15 KT. SEAS 8 FT.
.THU AND THU NIGHT...E WIND 15 KT. SEAS 6 FT.
.FRI THROUGH SAT...SE WIND 15 KT. SEAS 7 FT.
.SUN...SE WIND 20 KT. SEAS 7 FT.

$$

PKZ136-011300-
CHINIAK BAY-
338 PM AKDT TUE MAY 31 2016

.TONIGHT...NE WIND 20 KT. SEAS 6 FT. RAIN.
.WED...NE WIND 20 KT. SEAS 5 FT. RAIN SHOWERS.
.WED NIGHT...NE WIND 10 KT. SEAS 3 FT.
.THU...NE WIND 15 KT. SEAS 3 FT.
.THU NIGHT...NE WIND 10 KT. SEAS 3 FT.
.FRI THROUGH SUN...SE WIND 10 KT. SEAS 3 FT.

$$

PKZ137-011300-
MARMOT BAY-
338 PM AKDT TUE MAY 31 2016

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY TONIGHT...

.TONIGHT...NE WIND 25 KT. SEAS 9 FT. RAIN.
.WED...NE WIND 20 KT. SEAS 7 FT SUBSIDING TO 4 FT 
IN THE AFTERNOON. RAIN SHOWERS.
.WED NIGHT...NE WIND 10 KT. SEAS 3 FT.
.THU AND THU NIGHT...NE WIND 10 KT. SEAS 3 FT.
.FRI...E WIND 10 KT. SEAS 3 FT.
.SAT THROUGH SUN...SE WIND 15 KT. SEAS 4 FT.

$$

PKZ138-011300-
SHELIKOF STRAIT-
338 PM AKDT TUE MAY 31 2016

...GALE WARNING TONIGHT...

.TONIGHT...NE WIND 35 KT DIMINISHING TO 25 KT AFTER MIDNIGHT. 
SEAS 10 FT. RAIN.
.WED...NE WIND 25 KT. SEAS 7 FT. RAIN SHOWERS.
.WED NIGHT...NE WIND 20 KT. SEAS 5 FT.
.THU AND THU NIGHT...NE WIND 15 KT. SEAS 5 FT.
.FRI THROUGH SAT...E WIND 15 KT. SEAS 4 FT.
.SUN...E WIND 20 KT. SEAS 5 FT.

$$

PKZ139-011300-
COOK INLET KALGIN ISLAND TO POINT BEDE-
338 PM AKDT TUE MAY 31 2016

.TONIGHT...NE WIND 20 KT DIMINISHING TO 10 KT AFTER MIDNIGHT.
SEAS 4 FT SUBSIDING.
.WED...N WIND 10 KT BECOMING W IN THE AFTERNOON. SEAS 2 FT.
.WED NIGHT...SW WIND 20 KT. SEAS 4 FT.
.THU AND THU NIGHT...SE WIND 10 KT. SEAS 3 FT.
.FRI THROUGH SUN...SE WIND 10 KT. SEAS 3 FT.

$$

PKZ140-011300-
COOK INLET NORTH OF KALGIN ISLAND-
338 PM AKDT TUE MAY 31 2016

.TONIGHT...NE WIND 10 KT. SEAS 2 FT.
.WED...VARIABLE WIND LESS THAN 10 KT. SEAS 1 FOOT.
.WED NIGHT...S WIND 15 KT. SEAS 3 FT.
.THU AND THU NIGHT...S WIND 10 KT. SEAS 2 FT.
.FRI THROUGH SAT...SE WIND 10 KT. SEAS 2 FT.
.SUN...VARIABLE WIND LESS THAN 10 KT. SEAS 2 FT.

$$

PKZ141-011300-
KACHEMAK BAY-
338 PM AKDT TUE MAY 31 2016

.TONIGHT...E WIND 20 KT BECOMING NE 10 KT AFTER MIDNIGHT. 
SEAS 3 FT SUBSIDING.
.WED...VARIABLE WIND LESS THAN 10 KT BECOMING W 10 KT 
IN THE AFTERNOON. SEAS BUILDING TO 3 FT.
.WED NIGHT...SW WIND 10 KT IN THE EVENING BECOMING VARIABLE 
LESS THAN 10 KT. SEAS 3 FT SUBSIDING.
.THU AND THU NIGHT...VARIABLE WIND LESS THAN 10 KT. SEAS 2 FT.
.FRI THROUGH SUN...SE WIND 10 KT. SEAS 2 FT.

$$

216 
FZAK51 PAFC 011142
CWFAER

COASTAL WATERS FORECAST
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ANCHORAGE ALASKA
342 AM AKDT WED JUN 1 2016

COASTAL WATERS FORECAST FOR THE NORTHERN GULF OF ALASKA COAST
UP TO 100 NM OUT INCLUDING KODIAK ISLAND AND COOK INLET.

WIND FORECASTS REFLECT THE PREDOMINANT SPEED AND DIRECTION
EXPECTED. SEA FORECASTS REPRESENT AN AVERAGE OF THE HIGHEST
ONE-THIRD OF THE COMBINED WIND WAVE AND SWELL HEIGHT.

PKZ197-020030-
342 AM AKDT WED JUN 1 2016
.SYNOPSIS FOR THE NORTH GULF COAST+KODIAK ISLAND WATERS+
COOK INLET...

A FRONT OVER THE SOUTHERN GULF REMAINS NEARLY STATIONARY AS IT
WEAKENS THROUGH THU NIGHT.

$$

PKZ119-020030-
CAPE SUCKLING TO CAPE CLEARE-
342 AM AKDT WED JUN 1 2016

.TODAY...E WIND 20 KT. SEAS 7 FT.
.TONIGHT...E WIND 20 KT. SEAS 6 FT.
.THU...E WIND 15 KT. SEAS 6 FT.
.THU NIGHT...E WIND 20 KT. SEAS 7 FT.
.FRI THROUGH SAT...SE WIND 20 KT. SEAS 8 FT.
.SUN...SE WIND 15 KT. SEAS 7 FT.

$$

PKZ120-020030-
CAPE CLEARE TO GORE POINT-
342 AM AKDT WED JUN 1 2016

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY TODAY...

.TODAY...NE WIND 25 KT. SEAS 8 FT.
.TONIGHT...NE WIND 15 KT. SEAS 7 FT.
.THU...E WIND 15 KT. SEAS 6 FT.
.THU NIGHT...E WIND 15 KT. SEAS 6 FT.
.FRI THROUGH SAT...E WIND 20 KT. SEAS 7 FT.
.SUN...E WIND 15 KT. SEAS 7 FT.

$$

PKZ121-020030-
RESURRECTION BAY-
342 AM AKDT WED JUN 1 2016

.TODAY...N WIND 10 KT BECOMING S IN THE AFTERNOON. SEAS 2 FT.
HIGHER SEAS S OF CAINES HEAD.
.TONIGHT...S WIND 10 KT BECOMING N AFTER MIDNIGHT. SEAS 2 FT.
.THU...N WIND 10 KT BECOMING S IN THE AFTERNOON. SEAS 2 FT.
.THU NIGHT...N WIND 10 KT. SEAS 2 FT.
.FRI...VARIABLE WIND LESS THAN 10 KT. SEAS 2 FT.
.SAT THROUGH SUN...S WIND 10 KT. SEAS 2 FT.

$$

PKZ125-020030-
PRINCE WILLIAM SOUND-
342 AM AKDT WED JUN 1 2016

.TODAY...VARIABLE WIND LESS THAN 10 KT BECOMING SW 10 KT IN THE
AFTERNOON. SEAS 2 FT.
.TONIGHT...VARIABLE WIND LESS THAN 10 KT BECOMING E 10 KT AFTER
MIDNIGHT. SEAS 2 FT.
.THU...E WIND 10 KT. SEAS 2 FT.
.THU NIGHT...E WIND 10 KT. SEAS 2 FT.
.FRI THROUGH SUN...SE WIND 10 KT. SEAS 2 FT.

$$

PKZ126-020030-
PORT VALDEZ-
342 AM AKDT WED JUN 1 2016

.TODAY...VARIABLE WIND LESS THAN 10 KT BECOMING W 15 KT IN THE
AFTERNOON. SEAS 3 FT.
.TONIGHT...W WIND 15 KT IN THE EVENING BECOMING VARIABLE LESS THAN
10 KT. SEAS 3 FT.
.THU...VARIABLE WIND LESS THAN 10 KT BECOMING W 15 KT IN THE
AFTERNOON. SEAS 3 FT.
.THU NIGHT...W WIND 15 KT. SEAS 3 FT.
.FRI THROUGH SAT...E WIND 10 KT. SEAS 2 FT.
.SUN...VARIABLE WIND LESS THAN 10 KT. SEAS 2 FT.

$$

PKZ127-020030-
VALDEZ NARROWS-
342 AM AKDT WED JUN 1 2016

.TODAY...NE WIND 10 KT BECOMING SW 15 KT IN THE AFTERNOON. SEAS
3 FT.
.TONIGHT...SW WIND 15 KT BECOMING NE 10 KT AFTER MIDNIGHT. SEAS
3 FT.
.THU...NE WIND 10 KT BECOMING SW 15 KT IN THE AFTERNOON. SEAS 3
FT.
.THU NIGHT...NE WIND 10 KT. SEAS 2 FT.
.FRI...SW WIND 10 KT. SEAS 2 FT.
.SAT...VARIABLE WIND LESS THAN 10 KT. SEAS 2 FT.
.SUN...VARIABLE WIND LESS THAN 10 KT. SEAS 2 FT.

$$

PKZ128-020030-
VALDEZ ARM-
342 AM AKDT WED JUN 1 2016

.TODAY...VARIABLE WIND LESS THAN 10 KT BECOMING SW 10 KT IN THE
AFTERNOON. SEAS 2 FT.
.TONIGHT...SW WIND 10 KT IN THE EVENING BECOMING VARIABLE LESS
THAN 10 KT. SEAS 2 FT.
.THU...VARIABLE WIND LESS THAN 10 KT BECOMING SW 10 KT IN THE
AFTERNOON. SEAS 2 FT.
.THU NIGHT...VARIABLE WIND 10 KT. SEAS 2 FT.
.FRI THROUGH SUN...VARIABLE WIND LESS THAN 10 KT. SEAS 2 FT.

$$

PKZ129-020030-
PASSAGE CANAL-
342 AM AKDT WED JUN 1 2016

.TODAY...VARIABLE WIND LESS THAN 10 KT. SEAS 2 FT.
.TONIGHT...VARIABLE WIND LESS THAN 10 KT. SEAS 2 FT.
.THU...VARIABLE WIND LESS THAN 10 KT. SEAS 2 FT.
.THU NIGHT...VARIABLE WIND LESS THAN 10 KT. SEAS 2 FT.
.FRI...VARIABLE WIND LESS THAN 10 KT. SEAS 2 FT.
.SAT THROUGH SUN...E WIND 10 KT. SEAS 2 FT.

$$

PKZ130-020030-
WEST OF BARREN ISLANDS INCLUDING KAMISHAK BAY-
342 AM AKDT WED JUN 1 2016

.TODAY...SE WIND 20 KT DIMINISHING TO 10 KT IN THE AFTERNOON.
SEAS 5 FT.
.TONIGHT...VARIABLE WIND 10 KT. SEAS 3 FT.
.THU...SE WIND 15 KT. SEAS 3 FT.
.THU NIGHT...SE WIND 15 KT. SEAS 3 FT.
.FRI THROUGH SUN...E WIND 15 KT. SEAS 4 FT.

$$

PKZ131-020030-
BARREN ISLANDS EAST-
342 AM AKDT WED JUN 1 2016

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY TODAY...

.TODAY...E WIND 25 KT. SEAS 9 FT.
.TONIGHT...NE WIND 15 KT. SEAS 7 FT.
.THU...NE WIND 20 KT. SEAS 6 FT.
.THU NIGHT...E WIND 15 KT. SEAS 6 FT.
.FRI THROUGH SUN...SE WIND 20 KT. SEAS 7 FT.

$$

PKZ132-020030-
MARMOT ISLAND TO SITKINAK-
342 AM AKDT WED JUN 1 2016

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY TODAY...

.TODAY...E WIND 20 KT. SEAS 8 FT. RAIN.
.TONIGHT...NE WIND 15 KT. SEAS 7 FT.
.THU...NE WIND 15 KT. SEAS 6 FT.
.THU NIGHT...VARIABLE WIND 10 KT. SEAS 6 FT.
.FRI THROUGH SAT...SE WIND 15 KT. SEAS 7 FT.
.SUN...SE WIND 20 KT. SEAS 7 FT.

$$

PKZ136-020030-
CHINIAK BAY-
342 AM AKDT WED JUN 1 2016

.TODAY...E WIND 20 KT. SEAS 6 FT. RAIN.
.TONIGHT...NE WIND 15 KT DIMINISHING TO 10 KT AFTER MIDNIGHT. SEAS
3 FT. RAIN SHOWERS.
.THU...NE WIND 15 KT DIMINISHING TO 10 KT IN THE AFTERNOON. SEAS
3 FT. RAIN SHOWERS.
.THU NIGHT...NE WIND 10 KT. SEAS 3 FT.
.FRI THROUGH SUN...SE WIND 10 KT. SEAS 3 FT.

$$

PKZ137-020030-
MARMOT BAY-
342 AM AKDT WED JUN 1 2016

.TODAY...E WIND 20 KT. SEAS 6 FT. RAIN.
.TONIGHT...NE WIND 15 KT DIMINISHING TO 10 KT AFTER MIDNIGHT. SEAS
4 FT. RAIN SHOWERS.
.THU...NE WIND 10 KT BECOMING E 15 KT IN THE AFTERNOON. SEAS 3 FT.
RAIN SHOWERS.
.THU NIGHT...E WIND 10 KT. SEAS 3 FT.
.FRI...E WIND 10 KT. SEAS 3 FT.
.SAT THROUGH SUN...SE WIND 15 KT. SEAS 4 FT.

$$

PKZ138-020030-
SHELIKOF STRAIT-
342 AM AKDT WED JUN 1 2016

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY THROUGH TONIGHT...

.TODAY...NE WIND 25 KT. SEAS 7 FT. RAIN SHOWERS.
.TONIGHT...NE WIND 25 KT DIMINISHING TO 15 KT AFTER MIDNIGHT. SEAS
5 FT.
.THU...NE WIND 20 KT. SEAS 5 FT.
.THU NIGHT...NE WIND 15 KT. SEAS 3 FT.
.FRI THROUGH SAT...E WIND 15 KT. SEAS 3 FT.
.SUN...E WIND 20 KT. SEAS 4 FT.

$$

PKZ139-020030-
COOK INLET KALGIN ISLAND TO POINT BEDE-
342 AM AKDT WED JUN 1 2016

.TODAY...NE WIND 10 KT BECOMING SW IN THE AFTERNOON. SEAS 2 FT.
.TONIGHT...SW WIND 20 KT. SEAS 5 FT.
.THU...SW WIND 10 KT. SEAS 2 FT.
.THU NIGHT...S WIND 15 KT. SEAS 3 FT.
.FRI THROUGH SUN...SE WIND 10 KT. SEAS 2 FT.

$$

PKZ140-020030-
COOK INLET NORTH OF KALGIN ISLAND-
342 AM AKDT WED JUN 1 2016

.TODAY...VARIABLE WIND LESS THAN 10 KT. SEAS 2 FT.
.TONIGHT...S WIND 20 KT. SEAS 4 FT.
.THU...SE WIND 10 KT. SEAS 2 FT.
.THU NIGHT...S WIND 10 KT. SEAS 2 FT.
.FRI THROUGH SAT...SE WIND 10 KT. SEAS 2 FT.
.SUN...VARIABLE WIND LESS THAN 10 KT. SEAS 2 FT.

$$

PKZ141-020030-
KACHEMAK BAY-
342 AM AKDT WED JUN 1 2016

.TODAY...VARIABLE WIND LESS THAN 10 KT BECOMING SW 10 KT IN THE
AFTERNOON. SEAS 2 FT.
.TONIGHT...SW WIND 10 KT IN THE EVENING BECOMING VARIABLE LESS
THAN 10 KT. SEAS 2 FT.
.THU...VARIABLE WIND LESS THAN 10 KT BECOMING SW 10 KT IN THE
AFTERNOON. SEAS 2 FT.
.THU NIGHT...SW WIND 10 KT. SEAS 2 FT.
.FRI THROUGH SUN...SE WIND 10 KT. SEAS 2 FT.

$$

Southcentral and Southwest Alaska Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Anchorage AK
437 PM AKDT MON MAY 30 2016

.ANALYSIS AND UPPER LEVELS...
Near the southern mainland, two closed lows are visible in Water
Vapor satellite imagery. One is spinning along the southern gulf
and a second better organized system is over the Central Aleutians.
The Gulf low is moving an axis across the Western Alaska Range
with a line of rain stretched across eastern Bristol Bay to the
Kuskokwim Mountains. Both upper lows are nearly stationary and
pin-wheeling energy around their cores.

&&

.MODEL DISCUSSION...
Models are generally in good agreement with the transitioning pattern
into Wednesday. Not many changes were needed with the afternoon
package; the main adjustments were made for winds along the front
associated with the Aleutian storm system and to refine
precipitation and thunderstorm coverage.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
Diurnal convection will produce wet thunderstorms this evening as
low to mid level moisture increases along southeasterly flow. On
Tuesday, subsistence brings drier air down to the surface across
interior early in the day with the trend pushing south through
the afternoon. At the same time, an upper shortwave begins to lift
from the southern coastal areas. Thunderstorms are expected to be
wet, but if the air mass dries sooner than expected dry thunderstorms
could be possible across higher terrain surrounding the Kuskokwim
Valley.

&&

.SHORT TERM FORECAST SOUTHCENTRAL ALASKA (Days 1 and 2)...
Quieter weather is in store for the mainland with continued above
normal temperatures through midweek. Some lingering showers and
thunderstorms over the western Susitna Valley early this evening
should give way to clearing skies overnight. Tuesday will be
warmer and drier with Kodiak Island being the exception where a
front will bring steady wetting rain. Wednesday will continue the
warmer and drier trend with the chance for thunderstorm, mainly
along the Alaska Range, Talkeetna Mountains, and Copper River Basin.

The upper level disturbance that brought thunder to the area last
night is pushing into the southwest today. Lingering instability
and disturbances in the flow are helping showers early this
evening, however, the atmosphere is stabilizing quickly as upper
level heights build and subsidence increases. The next chance for
showers or thunderstorms comes on Wednesday as instability
increases and ridging aloft weakens.

&&

.SHORT TERM FORECAST SOUTHWEST ALASKA (Days 1 and 2)...
The easterly wave moving over the area will bring showers and
thunderstorms through late this evening. The majority of the
thunderstorms should continue over the Kuskokwim Valley, Delta and
the higher elevations of northern Bristol Bay where the strongest
instability exists. On Tuesday, a frontal system currently moving
through the Aleutians will bring gusty winds to the Southwest
coast along with a chance of showers and thunderstorms primarily
for the Kuskokwim Delta and northern Bristol Bay, though a few
strikes over the Kuskokwim Valley can't be ruled out. Showers and
Thunderstorms will then remain in the forecast into Wednesday as
a cold upper level trough dives southward from the interior,
especially for the Kuskokwim Valley and Alaska Range.

&&

.SHORT TERM FORECAST BERING SEA/ALEUTIANS (Days 1 and 2)...
The low moving through the eastern Aleutians will spread Gale
force winds and rain into the eastern Bering and Pribilofs for
Tuesday before dissipating on Tuesday evening. This low will
however become nearly stationary as it dissipates near Dutch
Harbor, leaving widespread Small Craft winds and a chance of
rain for much of the area through mid-week.

&&

.LONG TERM FORECAST (Days 3 through 7)...
Models are in agreement that Wed night into Thu a front will dive
south to the Alaska range where it slowly dissipates through Fri.
This front will be associated with showers and some thunderstorms
west and south of the Alaska Range Wed and Thu afternoons and
evenings. Otherwise showers can be expected over the rest of
mainland AK through this period. Persistent north flow across the
Bering will also bring some showers through Thu night. The day 3
forecast utilized the 12z NAM for continuity with the short term.

Beginning Thu evening the EC and Canadian hemispheric models dissipate
the front along the AK and Aleutian Ranges. A North Pacific low
begins to weaken as it approaches the Akpen. This feature
continues weakening into a separate low in the northern gulf,
which rapidly dissipates, and another near Cold Bay Sat morning.
The Cold Bay low weakens and is then reabsorbed by a third low
that remains south of the Eastern Aleutians beginning on Sunday.

This pattern will keep showers over mainland AK through the
weekend, with fairly dry conditions across the Aleutians and
Bering. When the low redevelops south of the chain on Sun, the
chance of precipitation will increase across the islands. The
forecast utilized the ensemble approach of WPC guidance which
also included the EC and Canadian models.

&&

.AFC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
PUBLIC...None.
MARINE...Gale Warning 138 150 155 165 170 172 179 180.
FIRE WEATHER...None.

&&

SYNOPSIS AND MODEL DISCUSSION...KH
SOUTHCENTRAL ALASKA...MTL
SOUTHWEST ALASKA/BERING SEA/ALEUTIANS...DEK
LONG TERM...DS