Gale Warning 401, NWS Anchorage, AK

579 
FZAK52 PAFC 062323
CWFALU

COASTAL WATERS FORECAST
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ANCHORAGE ALASKA
323 PM AKDT FRI MAY 6 2016

COASTAL WATERS FORECAST FOR SOUTHWEST ALASKA+BRISTOL BAY+THE
ALASKA PENINSULA WATERS AND THE ALEUTIAN ISLANDS UP TO 100 NM OUT.

WIND FORECASTS REFLECT THE PREDOMINANT SPEED AND DIRECTION
EXPECTED. SEA FORECASTS REPRESENT AN AVERAGE OF THE HIGHEST
ONE-THIRD OF THE COMBINED WIND WAVE AND SWELL HEIGHT.

PKZ199-071245-
323 PM AKDT FRI MAY 6 2016
.SYNOPSIS FOR SOUTHWEST ALASKA+BRISTOL BAY+THE ALASKA
PENINSULA WATERS AND THE ALEUTIAN ISLANDS...

A 986 MB LOW 410 NM NORTHWEST OF SHEMYA MOVES TO 300 NM NORTHEAST
OF SHEMYA SUN AFTERNOON AT 996 MB...THEN DRIFTS TO 380 NM NORTH OF
SHEMYA AT 990 MB SUN AFTERNOON. A FRONT ENTERS THE WESTERN
ALEUTIANS SUN AFTERNOON.

$$

PKZ150-071245-
SOUTH OF THE AK PENINSULA SITKINAK TO CASTLE CAPE-
323 PM AKDT FRI MAY 6 2016

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY TONIGHT AND SATURDAY NIGHT...

.TONIGHT...W WIND 20 KT. SEAS 8 FT.
.SAT...SW WIND 20 KT. SEAS 7 FT.
.SAT NIGHT...S WIND 25 KT. SEAS 8 FT.
.SUN...S WIND 25 KT. SEAS 9 FT.
.SUN NIGHT...S WIND 20 KT. SEAS 9 FT.
.MON THROUGH WED...S WIND 25 KT. SEAS 9 FT.

$$

PKZ155-071245-
SOUTH OF THE AK PENINSULA CASTLE CAPE TO CAPE SARICHEF-
323 PM AKDT FRI MAY 6 2016

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT...

.TONIGHT...W WIND 25 KT. SEAS 8 FT.
.SAT...SW WIND 25 KT. SEAS 10 FT.
.SAT NIGHT...S WIND 25 KT. SEAS 11 FT. RAIN SHOWERS.
.SUN...S WIND 25 KT. SEAS 10 FT.
.SUN NIGHT...S WIND 20 KT. SEAS 9 FT.
.MON THROUGH TUE...S WIND 25 KT. SEAS 11 FT.
.WED...S WIND 20 KT. SEAS 11 FT.

$$

PKZ160-071245-
BRISTOL BAY-
323 PM AKDT FRI MAY 6 2016

.TONIGHT...W WIND 20 KT. SEAS 5 FT. PATCHY FOG.
.SAT...SW WIND 15 KT. SEAS 5 FT. PATCHY FOG.
.SAT NIGHT...SE WIND 20 KT. SEAS 4 FT. PATCHY FOG. RAIN.
.SUN AND SUN NIGHT...SE WIND 15 KT. SEAS 4 FT.
.MON THROUGH TUE...SE WIND 25 KT. SEAS 6 FT.
.WED...SE WIND 20 KT. SEAS 6 FT.

$$

PKZ165-071245-
PORT HEIDEN TO CAPE SARICHEF-
323 PM AKDT FRI MAY 6 2016

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY THROUGH SATURDAY...

.TONIGHT...W WIND 15 KT BECOMING SW 25 KT AFTER MIDNIGHT. FROM
PORT MOLLER E...W WIND 20 KT. SEAS 6 FT.
.SAT...S WIND 25 KT. SEAS 7 FT. RAIN.
.SAT NIGHT...S WIND 20 KT. SEAS 7 FT. RAIN SHOWERS.
.SUN...S WIND 20 KT. SEAS 6 FT.
.SUN NIGHT...S WIND 15 KT. SEAS 4 FT.
.MON...S WIND 30 KT. SEAS 8 FT.
.TUE...S WIND 25 KT. SEAS 7 FT.
.WED...S WIND 20 KT. SEAS 7 FT.

$$

PKZ170-071245-
CAPE SARICHEF TO NIKOLSKI BERING SIDE-
323 PM AKDT FRI MAY 6 2016

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT...

.TONIGHT...S WIND INCREASING TO 25 KT. SEAS 8 FT. RAIN.
.SAT...S WIND 25 KT. SEAS 8 FT. RAIN.
.SAT NIGHT...S WIND 20 KT. SEAS 8 FT.
.SUN...SW WIND 15 KT. SEAS 5 FT.
.SUN NIGHT...SW WIND 25 KT. SEAS 5 FT.
.MON...S WIND 25 KT. SEAS 8 FT.
.TUE...S WIND 30 KT. SEAS 9 FT.
.WED...S WIND 20 KT. SEAS 8 FT.

$$

PKZ171-071245-
UNALASKA BAY-
323 PM AKDT FRI MAY 6 2016

.TONIGHT...S WIND 10 KT INCREASING TO 20 KT BY LATE EVENING. SEAS
2 FT. RAIN.
.SAT...S WIND 15 KT. SEAS 2 FT. RAIN.
.SAT NIGHT...S WIND 10 KT. SEAS 2 FT. RAIN SHOWERS.
.SUN AND SUN NIGHT...SW WIND 10 KT. SEAS 2 FT.
.MON THROUGH TUE...S WIND 20 KT. SEAS 3 FT.
.WED...S WIND 15 KT. SEAS 2 FT.

$$

PKZ172-071245-
CAPE SARICHEF TO NIKOLSKI PACIFIC SIDE-
323 PM AKDT FRI MAY 6 2016

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT...

.TONIGHT...SW WIND 30 KT. SEAS 10 FT. RAIN.
.SAT...S WIND 30 KT. SEAS 12 FT. RAIN.
.SAT NIGHT...S WIND 25 KT. SEAS 11 FT. RAIN SHOWERS.
.SUN...SW WIND 15 KT. SEAS 10 FT.
.SUN NIGHT...SW WIND 20 KT. SEAS 9 FT.
.MON...S WIND 25 KT. SEAS 10 FT.
.TUE...SW WIND 30 KT. SEAS 13 FT.
.WED...SW WIND 25 KT. SEAS 13 FT.

$$

PKZ173-071245-
NIKOLSKI TO SEGUAM ISLAND BERING SIDE-
323 PM AKDT FRI MAY 6 2016

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY THROUGH SATURDAY...

.TONIGHT...SW WIND 30 KT. SEAS 9 FT. RAIN.
.SAT...S WIND 20 KT. SEAS 9 FT.
.SAT NIGHT...W WIND 20 KT. SEAS 7 FT.
.SUN...W WIND 15 KT. SEAS 6 FT.
.SUN NIGHT...S WIND 25 KT. SEAS 8 FT.
.MON THROUGH TUE...SW WIND 30 KT. SEAS 9 FT.
.WED...SW WIND 20 KT. SEAS 8 FT.

$$

PKZ174-071245-
NIKOLSKI TO SEGUAM ISLAND PACIFIC SIDE-
323 PM AKDT FRI MAY 6 2016

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT...

.TONIGHT...SW WIND 30 KT. SEAS 13 FT. RAIN.
.SAT...SW WIND 25 KT. SEAS 12 FT. RAIN SHOWERS.
.SAT NIGHT...SW WIND 15 KT. SEAS 10 FT.
.SUN...W WIND 15 KT. SEAS 9 FT.
.SUN NIGHT...S WIND 25 KT. SEAS 10 FT.
.MON THROUGH TUE...SW WIND 30 KT. SEAS 13 FT.
.WED...SW WIND 25 KT. SEAS 13 FT.

$$

PKZ175-071245-
SEGUAM ISLAND TO ADAK BERING SIDE-
323 PM AKDT FRI MAY 6 2016

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY TONIGHT...

.TONIGHT...SW WIND 25 KT. SEAS 9 FT. RAIN SHOWERS.
.SAT...W WIND 20 KT. SEAS 7 FT.
.SAT NIGHT...W WIND 20 KT. SEAS 6 FT.
.SUN...SW WIND 20 KT. SEAS 7 FT.
.SUN NIGHT...S WIND 30 KT. SEAS 8 FT.
.MON THROUGH TUE...SW WIND 25 KT. SEAS 8 FT.
.WED...W WIND 20 KT. SEAS 7 FT.

$$

PKZ176-071245-
SEGUAM ISLAND TO ADAK PACIFIC SIDE-
323 PM AKDT FRI MAY 6 2016

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT...

.TONIGHT...SW WIND 30 KT. SEAS 13 FT. RAIN SHOWERS.
.SAT...SW WIND 20 KT. SEAS 12 FT. RAIN SHOWERS.
.SAT NIGHT...W WIND 20 KT. SEAS 10 FT.
.SUN...SW WIND 20 KT. SEAS 10 FT.
.SUN NIGHT...S WIND 25 KT. SEAS 10 FT.
.MON THROUGH TUE...SW WIND 30 KT. SEAS 15 FT.
.WED...W WIND 25 KT. SEAS 13 FT.

$$

PKZ177-071245-
ADAK TO KISKA-
323 PM AKDT FRI MAY 6 2016

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT...

.TONIGHT...SW WIND 20 KT. SEAS 12 FT. RAIN SHOWERS.
.SAT...W WIND 25 KT. SEAS 11 FT.
.SAT NIGHT...W WIND 25 KT. SEAS 11 FT.
.SUN...S WIND 30 KT. SEAS 10 FT.
.SUN NIGHT...SW WIND 25 KT. SEAS 11 FT.
.MON THROUGH TUE...W WIND 30 KT. SEAS 15 FT.
.WED...W WIND 25 KT. SEAS 10 FT.

$$

PKZ178-071245-
KISKA TO ATTU-
323 PM AKDT FRI MAY 6 2016

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT...

.TONIGHT...W WIND 20 KT. SEAS 11 FT.
.SAT...W WIND 30 KT. SEAS 12 FT.
.SAT NIGHT...W WIND 25 KT. SEAS 12 FT.
.SUN...SE WIND 30 KT. SEAS 10 FT.
.SUN NIGHT...SW WIND 30 KT. SEAS 12 FT.
.MON...W WIND 25 KT. SEAS 13 FT.
.TUE...W WIND 30 KT. SEAS 13 FT.
.WED...NW WIND 25 KT. SEAS 9 FT.

$$

PKZ179-071245-
PRIBILOF ISLANDS NEAR SHORE WATERS-
323 PM AKDT FRI MAY 6 2016

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY TONIGHT...

.TONIGHT...SE WIND INCREASING TO 25 KT. SEAS 7 FT. RAIN.
.SAT...S WIND 15 KT. SEAS 7 FT. RAIN.
.SAT NIGHT...S WIND 10 KT. SEAS 7 FT.
.SUN...VARIABLE WIND 10 KT. SEAS 6 FT.
.SUN NIGHT...SW WIND 20 KT. SEAS 6 FT.
.MON...S WIND 25 KT. SEAS 9 FT.
.TUE...S WIND 20 KT. SEAS 8 FT.
.WED...S WIND 15 KT. SEAS 7 FT.

$$

PKZ180-071245-
KUSKOKWIM DELTA AND ETOLIN STRAIT-
323 PM AKDT FRI MAY 6 2016

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY SATURDAY...

.TONIGHT...W WIND 20 KT. SEAS 5 FT. PATCHY FOG.
.SAT...SE WIND 25 KT. SEAS 5 FT. AREAS OF FOG. RAIN.
.SAT NIGHT...SE WIND 20 KT. SEAS 5 FT. PATCHY FOG. RAIN SHOWERS.
.SUN AND SUN NIGHT...SE WIND 20 KT. SEAS 5 FT.
.MON THROUGH TUE...SE WIND 25 KT. SEAS 8 FT.
.WED...SE WIND 20 KT. SEAS 7 FT.

$$

PKZ181-071245-
NORTH AND WEST OF NUNIVAK ISLAND-
323 PM AKDT FRI MAY 6 2016

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY SATURDAY...

.TONIGHT...NW WIND 15 KT. SEAS 2 FT. PATCHY FOG.
.SAT...SE WIND 25 KT. SEAS 4 FT. PATCHY FOG. RAIN.
.SAT NIGHT...SE WIND 20 KT. SEAS 4 FT. PATCHY FOG. RAIN.
.SUN...SE WIND 15 KT. SEAS 3 FT.
.SUN NIGHT...SE WIND 20 KT. SEAS 4 FT.
.MON...SE WIND 25 KT. SEAS 5 FT.
.TUE THROUGH WED...SE WIND 20 KT. SEAS 4 FT.

$$

PKZ185-071245-
SAINT MATTHEW ISLAND WATERS-
323 PM AKDT FRI MAY 6 2016

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY TONIGHT...

.TONIGHT...SE WIND 25 KT. SEAS IN ICE FREE WATERS 4 FT. PATCHY
FOG. RAIN AND SNOW.
.SAT...E WIND 20 KT. SEAS IN ICE FREE WATERS 4 FT. RAIN.
.SAT NIGHT...E WIND 20 KT. SEAS IN ICE FREE WATERS 3 FT.
.SUN AND SUN NIGHT...SE WIND 15 KT. SEAS IN ICE FREE WATERS 3 FT.
.MON...SE WIND 25 KT. SEAS IN ICE FREE WATERS 4 FT.
.TUE...SE WIND 20 KT. SEAS IN ICE FREE WATERS 3 FT.
.WED...E WIND 15 KT. SEAS IN ICE FREE WATERS 3 FT.

$$

SOUTHCENTRAL AND SOUTHWEST ALASKA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ANCHORAGE AK
422 PM AKDT THU MAY 5 2016

.ANALYSIS AND UPPER LEVELS...
THE MAIN FEATURE EVIDENT ON SATELLITE THIS AFTERNOON IS A MATURE
LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM BOTH ALOFT AND AT THE SURFACE. A PLUME OF
MOISTURE IS APPROACHING SOUTHCENTRAL ALASKA IN THE SOUTHERLY FLOW
ALOFT BUT IT APPEARS AS IF THE JET STREAM IS LEAVING THE SYSTEM
AND POINTING MORE TOWARD THE NORTHERN PANHANDLE MEANING THE
SYSTEM HAS ENTERED A WEAKENING PHASE. SATELLITE BASED OBSERVATIONS
OF PRECIPITABLE WATER INDICATE THE SAME IN THAT THE PLUME WILL GET
CUT OFF AS THE JET SLIDES EAST. THE GALE FORCE FRONTAL BOUNDARY
ASSOCIATED WITH THIS SYSTEM IS STRETCHING PAST KODIAK ISLAND AND
CURVING ALONG THE NORTH GULF COAST. LATE THIS MORNING THE
MIDDLETON ISLAND RADAR IS INDICATING A CHANGEOVER FROM CONVECTIVE
SHOWERY PRECIPITATION TO MORE STEADY STRATIFORM RAIN AS THE FRONT
APPROACHES.

THE UPPER SYSTEM IS CLOSED OFF TO THE SOUTHWEST OF KODIAK ISLAND
AND VERTICALLY STACKED. IT IS SHUNTING THE UPPER LEVEL RIDGE PAST
THE PANHANDLE THOUGH THERE IS LOCALIZED RIDGING BUILDING OVER
SOUTHCENTRAL WITH THE WARM ADVECTION. THE STACKED SYSTEM IS
POSITIVELY TILTED AS A BIGGER RIDGE BUILDS OVER THE BERING SEA IN
RESPONSE TO A DEEPENING KAMCHATKA LOW. THE SHORT TERM FORECAST
WILL REVOLVE AROUND THE DECAY OF THE UPPER LOW AND THE INCOMING
FRONT OUT WEST.

&&

.MODEL DISCUSSION...
BOTH IN THE UPPER LEVELS AND AT THE SURFACE, MODELS ARE IN GREAT
AGREEMENT WITH THE DEVOLUTION OF THE CURRENT SYSTEM AS IT SLIDES
INTO THE NORTHEASTERN GULF. BOTH DOMAINS PREFERRED THE HIGHER
RESOLUTION NAM WITH ALL ELSE BEING EQUAL.

&&

.SHORT TERM FORECAST SOUTHCENTRAL ALASKA (DAYS 1 AND 2)...

THE FRONT IN THE NORTHERN GULF WILL BRING GUSTY WINDS AND RAIN
ACROSS THE COASTAL AREAS THROUGH LATE EVENING. GUSTY WINDS THAT
DEVELOPED ACROSS CHANNELED TERRAIN ACROSS SOUTHCENTRAL WILL RELAX
AS THE PRESSURE GRADIENT WEAKENS LATE THIS EVENING WHEN THE FRONT
PUSHES INLAND. A STRONG SHORT WAVE ROTATES NORTH FROM THE LOW
NEARING KODIAK AND WILL SPREAD RAIN INLAND OVERNIGHT BRINGING
LIGHT ACCUMULATIONS TO MUCH OF THE AREA. SHOWERS WILL CONTINUE IN
THE FORECAST THROUGH THE BEGINNING OF THE WEEKEND AS THE UPPER LOW
SLOWLY TRACKS ACROSS THE SOUTHERN GULF. DRIER CONDITIONS SET UP SATURDAY
NIGHT AS WEAK SURFACE RIDGING BUILDS INTO GULF.

&&

.SHORT TERM FORECAST SOUTHWEST ALASKA (DAYS 1 AND 2)...
AHEAD OF THE MAIN FRONT A SHORTWAVE IS PUSHING THROUGH SOUTHWEST
ALASKA AND WILL MOVE OVER THE KUSKOKWIM DELTA THIS AFTERNOON. THIS
MAY HELP TO INITIATE THUNDERSTORMS WEST OF BETHEL BUT WITH WEAK
INDICES DEVELOPMENT WILL BE LIMITED. BEHIND THE SHORTWAVE...RAIN
WILL COME IN FROM THE SOUTH AS THE MAIN FRONT MOVES IN. THAT FRONT
WILL DISSIPATE LATER ON FRIDAY BUT A NEW FRONT FROM THE WEST WILL
THEN MOVE OVER THE AREA SATURDAY AFTERNOON BRINGING BACK MORE
RAIN.

&&

.SHORT TERM FORECAST BERING SEA/ALEUTIANS (DAYS 1 AND 2)...
RIDGING IS OVER THE CENTRAL ALEUTIANS AND TRACKING EAST WITH A
FRONT RIGHT BEHIND IT OVER THE WESTERN ALEUTIANS. THIS NEW SYSTEM
IS WARM AND BRINGING UP RAIN WITH IT. THE FRONT FOR THIS SYSTEM
WILL MAKE IT TO THE EASTERN ALEUTIANS LATE ON FRIDAY AND THEN TO
THE ALASKA PENINSULA SATURDAY MORNING. BEHIND THE FRONT RAIN
SHOWERS WILL PERSIST UNTIL ANOTHER RIDGE MOVES IN OVER THE WESTERN
ALEUTIANS LATER ON SATURDAY.

&&

.LONG TERM FORECAST (DAYS 3 THROUGH 7)...
BEGINNING THE EXTENDED PERIOD ON SATURDAY NIGHT...HIGH PRESSURE
WILL BUILD OVER THE SOUTHERN MAINLAND AND BRING CLEARING SKIES AND
WARMER WEATHER TO MUCH OF THE MAINLAND THROUGH SUNDAY MORNING. A
LONGWAVE TROUGH OVER THE CENTRAL BERING WILL BEGIN TO PUSH INTO
THE SOUTHERN MAINLAND SUNDAY AFTERNOON...EVENTUALLY SHIFTING THE
UPPER LEVEL RIDGE AXIS FURTHER EASTWARD AND BRINGING AN END TO
SUNNIER AND PLEASANT WEATHER FOR SOUTHERN ALASKA. ANOTHER UPPER
LEVEL TROUGH WILL BEGIN TO FORM OFF THE EASTERN COAST OF THE
KAMCHATKA PENINSULA...THEN PROGRESS EASTWARD OVER THE WESTERN AND
CENTRAL BERING/ALEUTIANS DURING THE BEGINNING OF NEXT WEEK. THIS
PATTERN OF SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW AT 500 HPA WILL BRING MORE CLOUDS
AND RAIN CHANCES TO MOST OF SOUTHERN ALASKA...AS IT PUSHES FURTHER
EASTWARD THROUGHOUT NEXT WEEK. TEMPERATURES ARE ALSO EXPECTED TO
REMAIN CLOSER TO CLIMATOLOGICAL NORMALS...AS THIS PATTERN CHANGES
AFTER WEEKS OF WELL ABOVE AVERAGE TEMPERATURES.

MODELS AGREEMENT ON THE OVERALL SYNOPTIC PATTERN HAS IMPROVED
THROUGH MUCH OF THE MID-TERM AND LONG-TERM...WITH ONLY MINOR
DIFFERENCES REGARDING SOME OF THE FINER DETAILS FOR NEXT WEEK.
THE VARIOUS MEMBERS OF THE GLOBAL ENSEMBLES AND DETERMINISTIC
MODELS CONTINUE TO HANDLE THE RIDGING OVER THE GULF AND SOUTHERN
ALASKA WELL...AS WELL AS THE UPPER TROUGH AND DECAYING LOW/FRONT
OVER THE BERING THROUGH THE WEEKEND. THEY DO HOWEVER STRUGGLE
SLIGHTLY WITH THE TIMING OF THE FRONT PUSHING EASTWARD...AND HOW
FAR EASTWARD THE PRECIPITATION ASSOCIATED WITH THIS SYSTEM MAKES
IT INTO THE SOUTHERN MAINLAND AND GULF. THE MODELS ALSO CONTINUE
TO STRUGGLE WITH THE TRACK AND TIMING OF THE NEXT LOW AND
ASSOCIATED FRONT PUSHING THROUGH THE BERING DURING THE MIDDLE OF
NEXT WEEK. CURRENTLY THE EC BECOMES A SLIGHT OUTLIER STALLING THE
SURFACE LOW OVER THE WESTERN BERING...AS THE GFS AND CANADIAN
MODELS ARE SHOWING A SLIGHTLY QUICKER AND EASTERLY SOLUTION TO
THESE FEATURES.

&&

.AFC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
PUBLIC...NONE.
MARINE...GALE WARNING...119 120 130 138 139 155 172 177 178.

&&

SYNOPSIS AND MODEL DISCUSSION...ML
SOUTHCENTRAL ALASKA...KH
SOUTHWEST ALASKA/BERING SEA/ALEUTIANS...DK
LONG TERM...PEPE