Gale Warning 385, NWS Anchorage, AK

778 
FZAK62 PAFC 082311
OFFALU

OFFSHORE WATERS FORECAST
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ANCHORAGE AK
311 PM AKDT SUN MAY 8 2016

OFFSHORE WATERS FORECAST FOR THE BERING SEA

WIND FORECASTS REFLECT THE PREDOMINANT SPEED AND DIRECTION
EXPECTED. SEA FORECASTS REPRESENT AN AVERAGE OF THE HIGHEST
ONE-THIRD OF THE COMBINED WIND WAVE AND SWELL HEIGHT.

PKZ499-091445-
311 PM AKDT SUN MAY 8 2016
.SYNOPSIS FOR CENTRAL BERING SEA...
A 984 MB LOW NEAR 51N 165E MOVES TO 58N 179E AT 996 MB TUE
AFTERNOON. THE ASSOCIATED FRONT OVER THE WESTERN AND CENTRAL
ALEUTIANS WILL APPROACH THE COAST OF MAINLAND ALASKA BY MON
EVENING.

$$

PKZ411-091445-
BERING SEA OFFSHORE WEST OF 180 AND EAST OF THE INTERNATIONAL
DATELINE-
311 PM AKDT SUN MAY 8 2016

.TONIGHT...SE WIND 15 TO 30 KT. SEAS 5 TO 10 FT. RAIN.
.MON...S WIND 15 TO 25 KT. SEAS 7 TO 10 FT. RAIN SHOWERS.
.MON NIGHT...S WIND 10 TO 15 KT. SEAS 8 FT.
.TUE...NW WIND UP TO 20 KT. SEAS 6 TO 9 FT.
.TUE NIGHT...NW WIND UP TO 20 KT. SEAS 6 TO 9 FT.
.WED...NW WIND 10 TO 20 KT. SEAS 4 TO 7 FT.
.THU...N WIND 15 KT. SEAS 5 FT.
.FRI...NE WIND 10 TO 20 KT. SEAS 3 TO 7 FT.

$$

PKZ412-091445-
BERING SEA OFFSHORE 171W TO 180 AND NORTH OF 56N-
311 PM AKDT SUN MAY 8 2016

.TONIGHT...S WIND 15 TO 25 KT. SEAS 7 FT. DENSE FOG. VSBY 1 NM OR
LESS E OF 175W.
.MON...S WIND 15 TO 30 KT. SEAS 7 TO 10 FT. DENSE FOG. RAIN. VSBY
1 NM OR LESS E OF 175W IN THE MORNING.
.MON NIGHT...S WIND 10 TO 20 KT. SEAS 8 FT. RAIN SHOWERS.
.TUE...S WIND UP TO 20 KT. SEAS 8 FT.
.TUE NIGHT...S WIND UP TO 15 KT. SEAS 8 FT.
.WED...SW WIND UP TO 15 KT. SEAS 4 TO 8 FT.
.THU THROUGH FRI...NE WIND UP TO 20 KT. SEAS 4 TO 7 FT.

$$

PKZ413-091445-
BERING SEA OFFSHORE 171W TO 180 AND SOUTH OF 56N-
311 PM AKDT SUN MAY 8 2016

.TONIGHT...S WIND 15 TO 30 KT. SEAS 6 TO 9 FT.
.MON...S WIND 20 TO 30 KT. SEAS 9 FT. RAIN SHOWERS.
.MON NIGHT...S WIND 15 TO 25 KT. SEAS 9 FT. RAIN SHOWERS.
.TUE...SW WIND 10 TO 20 KT. SEAS 8 FT.
.TUE NIGHT...SW WIND 10 TO 20 KT. SEAS 7 FT.
.WED...W WIND UP TO 15 KT. SEAS 5 TO 8 FT.
.THU THROUGH FRI...NE WIND UP TO 20 KT. SEAS 6 FT.

$$

PKZ414-091445-
BERING SEA OFFSHORE EAST OF 171W-
311 PM AKDT SUN MAY 8 2016

.TONIGHT...S WIND 15 TO 25 KT. SEAS 6 FT. DENSE FOG. VSBY 1 NM OR
LESS NEAR THE PRIBILOF ISLANDS.
.MON...S WIND 20 TO 30 KT. SEAS 6 TO 11 FT. DENSE FOG. RAIN. VSBY
1 NM OR LESS NEAR THE PRIBILOF ISLANDS.
.MON NIGHT...S WIND 20 TO 30 KT. SEAS 8 TO 11 FT. RAIN.
.TUE...S WIND 15 TO 25 KT. SEAS 7 TO 10 FT.
.TUE NIGHT...S WIND 20 KT. SEAS 7 FT.
.WED...S WIND UP TO 20 KT. SEAS 4 TO 7 FT.
.THU...E WIND UP TO 15 KT. SEAS 5 FT.
.FRI...NE WIND 20 KT. SEAS 5 FT.

$$

SOUTHCENTRAL AND SOUTHWEST ALASKA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ANCHORAGE AK
430 PM AKDT SAT MAY 7 2016

.ANALYSIS AND UPPER LEVELS...
WEAK RIDGING TRANSVERSING ACROSS THE GULF AND SOUTHCENTRAL IS
MAXIMIZING SUNSHINE THIS AFTERNOON AS SUBSIDENCE DRIES THE AIR
MASS ACROSS THE REGION. THE UPPER LOW THAT BROUGHT RAIN ACTIVITY
ACROSS THE SOUTH ON FRIDAY IS NOW MOVING INLAND ACROSS THE
SOUTHEAST WITH SOME INFLUENCE ACROSS THE EASTERN COPPER RIVER AS
IT PULLS MID LEVEL CLOUDS TOWARD THE NORTHEAST GULF ON THE
BACKSIDE OF THE SYSTEM. A BROAD UPPER LEVEL TROUGH ENCOMPASSES
THE BERING WITH A SHARP AXIS MOVING ACROSS THE CENTRAL ALEUTIANS.
A FRONT MOVED INTO THE EASTERN BERING THIS MORNING AND IS SLOWING
AS THE SURFACE LOW IS TAKING A NORTHWARD TURN ON ITS APPROACH NEAR
THE PRIBILOF ISLANDS.

&&

.MODEL DISCUSSION...

MODELS CONTINUE IN GOOD AGREEMENT ON THE 12Z RUN WITH THE SYNOPTIC
FEATURES THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT. THE INHERITED FORECAST WAS UPDATED
PRIMARILY WITH THE NAM WITH A BLEND OF OPERATIONAL MODELS ACROSS
THE SOUTHWEST AND BERING.

&&

.SHORT TERM FORECAST SOUTHCENTRAL ALASKA (DAYS 1 AND 2)...
HIGH PRESSURE OVER INLAND SOUTHCENTRAL WILL KEEP MOSTLY CLEAR
CONDITIONS AND MILD TEMPERATURES AROUND THROUGH THIS EVENING.
HIGH CLOUDS WILL MOVE IN FROM THE SOUTHWEST BY SUNDAY MORNING WITH
THE NEXT SYSTEM APPROACHING IN SOUTH TO SOUTHWEST FLOW. RAIN WILL
LIKELY DEVELOP BY LATE SUNDAY MORNING ACROSS THE SOUTHERN AND
EASTERN KENAI PENINSULA AND MUCH OF KODIAK ISLAND...THEN
OVERSPREADING MUCH OF SOUTHCENTRAL SUNDAY EVENING INTO MONDAY
AFTERNOON. THIS WILL BRING THE BEST CHANCE AT WETTING RAIN TO MOST
LOCATIONS UNOBSTRUCTED FROM THE SOUTHWEST FLOW INTO SOUTHCENTRAL
ALASKA. THIS IS GOOD NEWS FOR THE WESTERN KENAI PENINSULA NORTH
THROUGH THE ANCHORAGE AND MATANUSKA VALLEY WHERE CONDITIONS HAVE
MOSTLY BEEN DRY SINCE MID-TO-LATE MARCH.

&&

.SHORT TERM FORECAST SOUTHWEST ALASKA (DAYS 1 AND 2)...
A FRONT IN THE EASTERN BERING WILL MOVE ON SHORE LATER THIS
EVENING BRINGING WIDESPREAD RAIN AND SHOWERS ACROSS THE AREA. AS
THE FRONT PUSHES INLAND...WIDESPREAD SHOWERS WILL CONTINUE WITH
SOUTHEASTERLY FLOW AS A WEAK SHORTWAVE MOVES THROUGH THE REGION.
A SECOND FRONT WILL QUICKLY BEGIN TO ENTER THE AREA AS IT MOVES
EAST ACROSS THE BERING WITH MORE RAIN EXPECTED OVER THE SOUTHWEST
MAINLAND BY MONDAY EVENING.

AREAS OF COASTAL FOG...MAINLY ALONG THE WESTERN CAPES AND THE
KUSKOKWIM COAST...CAN BE EXPECTED THROUGH THE WEEKEND AS ONSHORE
FLOW CONTINUES.

&&

.SHORT TERM FORECAST BERING SEA/ALEUTIANS (DAYS 1 AND 2)...
THROUGH MONDAY...A SERIES OF FRONTS WILL PUSH THROUGH THE BERING
SEA BRINGING WIDESPREAD PRECIPITATION AND AREAS OF FOG TO THE
REGION. WINDS WILL REMAIN GUSTY ALONG THE ALASKA PENINSULA THIS
EVENING AS THE FIRST FRONT PUSHED EASTWARD AND INTO THE SOUTHWEST
MAINLAND BEFORE DYING DOWN BY MIDNIGHT. THE SECOND FRONT IS ASSOCIATED
WITH THE 983 MB LOW AS IT MOVES INTO THE WESTERN BERING...AND WILL
GENERALLY KEEP WINDS NEAR GALE-FORCE OVER THE AREA UNTIL THE
FRONT PUSHES INTO THE EASTERN ALEUTIANS ON MONDAY WHEN LOW-END
GALES WILL DEVELOP...MAINLY ALONG GAP AREAS IN THE EASTERN
ALEUTIANS AND THE WESTERN ALASKA PENINSULA.

&&

.LONG TERM FORECAST (DAYS 3 THROUGH 7)...
DRIER AND WARMER CONDITIONS IN STORE FOR SOUTHCENTRAL ALASKA
BEGINNING TUESDAY MORNING. MONDAY EVENING WILL START OFF CLOUDY
AS A SYSTEM OVER THE COPPER RIVER BASIN/NORTHERN GULF EXITS TO THE
EAST. LINGERING EVENING MOUNTAIN SHOWERS, MAINLY FROM THE
TALKEETNAS EASTWARD WILL BE THE MAIN SENSIBLE WEATHER. EXPECT
DRIER BUT STILL CLOUDY CONDITIONS WITH THE MOST CLOUD COVERAGE
OVER THE COOK INLET REGION. OUT INTO THE EXTENDED FORECAST
(WEDNESDAY AND BEYOND) EXPECT CLEARING SKIES, DRY, AND MUCH
WARMER THAN AVERAGE CONDITIONS.

THE PATTERN BEGINS TO GET STAGNANT AS THE SHORTWAVE EXITS LATE
MONDAY. A MATURE AND STACKED COLD-CORE BERING SEA SYSTEM WILL
COMBINE WITH A CUT-OFF LOW IN THE NORTH PACIFIC TO PUMP UP AN
UPPER LEVEL RIDGE. THIS HIGH LOOKS TO CLOSE OFF ITSELF IN THE
NORTHEAST GULF/CANADIAN YUKON THE NET EFFECT WILL RETURN MUCH
WARMER AND WELL ABOVE AVERAGE CONDITIONS. HOWEVER...THE SOUTHWEST
MAINLAND AND COOK INLET REGION WILL REMAIN IN THE SOUTHERLY FLOW
ALOFT WHICH WILL BRING A MOISTURE STREAM OVERHEAD, BUT MOST OF THE
RAIN WILL STAY OVER THE SOUTHWEST. THE CLOSED HIGH LOOKS TO
ESTABLISH CRUSHING HOT DOMINANCE (BY ALASKA STANDARDS) OVER THE
MAINLAND TOWARD THE END OF NEXT WEEK BUT CONFIDENCE IS LOWER ON
THE DETAILS OF THE PATTERN AT THIS POINT.

&&

.AFC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
PUBLIC...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

SYNOPSIS AND MODEL DISCUSSION...KH
SOUTHCENTRAL ALASKA...TP
SOUTHWEST ALASKA/BERING SEA/ALEUTIANS...RF/LIW
LONG TERM...ML