Gale Warning 330, NWS Anchorage, AK

486 
FZAK52 PAFC 041130
CWFALU

COASTAL WATERS FORECAST
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ANCHORAGE ALASKA
330 AM AKDT MON APR 4 2016

COASTAL WATERS FORECAST FOR SOUTHWEST ALASKA+BRISTOL BAY+THE
ALASKA PENINSULA WATERS AND THE ALEUTIAN ISLANDS UP TO 100 NM OUT.

WIND FORECASTS REFLECT THE PREDOMINANT SPEED AND DIRECTION
EXPECTED. SEA FORECASTS REPRESENT AN AVERAGE OF THE HIGHEST
ONE-THIRD OF THE COMBINED WIND WAVE AND SWELL HEIGHT.

PKZ199-050045-
330 AM AKDT MON APR 4 2016
.SYNOPSIS FOR SOUTHWEST ALASKA+BRISTOL BAY+THE ALASKA
PENINSULA WATERS AND THE ALEUTIAN ISLANDS...
A 978 MB LOW 250 NM SOUTHEAST OF DUTCH HARBOR MOVES TO 110 NM
SOUTHEAST OF CHIGNIK AT 998 MB WED MORNING. THE ASSOCIATED FRONT
PUSHES INTO THE GULF OF ALASKA BY WED MORNING. HIGH PRESSURE
WEAKENS OVER THE ALEUTIANS BY WED MORNING. A NORTH PACIFIC LOW
MOVES TO 400 NM SOUTHWEST OF ATTU AT 982 MB TUE MORNING THEN
SHIFTS TO 50 NM NORTH OF KISKA ISLAND AT 980 MB BY WED MORNING.
THE FRONT PUSHES INTO THE CENTRAL ALEUTIANS BY WED MORNING.

$$

PKZ150-050045-
SOUTH OF THE AK PENINSULA SITKINAK TO CASTLE CAPE-
330 AM AKDT MON APR 4 2016

...GALE WARNING TODAY...

.TODAY...E WIND 35 KT DIMINISHING TO 25 KT IN THE AFTERNOON. SEAS
15 FT. RAIN.
.TONIGHT...SE WIND 20 KT. SEAS 12 FT. RAIN.
.TUE...SE WIND 15 KT. SEAS 12 FT. RAIN.
.TUE NIGHT...SE WIND 15 KT. SEAS 9 FT.
.WED...S WIND 20 KT. SEAS 8 FT.
.THU...S WIND 30 KT. SEAS 10 FT.
.FRI...SE WIND 30 KT. SEAS 16 FT.

$$

PKZ155-050045-
SOUTH OF THE AK PENINSULA CASTLE CAPE TO CAPE SARICHEF-
330 AM AKDT MON APR 4 2016

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY THROUGH TUESDAY...

.TODAY...E WIND 30 KT DIMINISHING TO 20 KT IN THE AFTERNOON. SEAS
14 FT. RAIN.
.TONIGHT...E WIND 15 KT. SEAS 11 FT. RAIN.
.TUE...VARIABLE WIND 10 KT. SEAS 9 FT. RAIN.
.TUE NIGHT...NW WIND 15 KT. SEAS 7 FT.
.WED...SW WIND 20 KT. SEAS 7 FT.
.THU THROUGH FRI...SE WIND 30 KT. SEAS 13 FT.

$$

PKZ160-050045-
BRISTOL BAY-
330 AM AKDT MON APR 4 2016

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY THROUGH TONIGHT...

.TODAY...E WIND 30 KT. SEAS 6 FT.
.TONIGHT...NE WIND 30 KT. SEAS 5 FT.
.TUE...NE WIND 20 KT. SEAS 3 FT.
.TUE NIGHT...E WIND 10 KT. SEAS 1 FOOT.
.WED...E WIND 15 KT. SEAS 2 FT.
.THU...SE WIND 25 KT. SEAS 6 FT.
.FRI...SE WIND 30 KT. SEAS 7 FT.

$$

PKZ165-050045-
PORT HEIDEN TO CAPE SARICHEF-
330 AM AKDT MON APR 4 2016

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY THROUGH TONIGHT...

.TODAY...E WIND 30 KT. SEAS 9 FT. RAIN.
.TONIGHT...NE WIND 25 KT. SEAS 9 FT. RAIN.
.TUE...N WIND 20 KT EXCEPT VARIABLE 10 KT FROM PORT MOLLER E. SEAS
6 FT.
.TUE NIGHT...N WIND 15 KT. SEAS 4 FT.
.WED...SE WIND 15 KT. SEAS 4 FT.
.THU...SE WIND 25 KT. SEAS 10 FT.
.FRI...SE WIND 30 KT. SEAS 8 FT.

$$

PKZ170-050045-
CAPE SARICHEF TO NIKOLSKI BERING SIDE-
330 AM AKDT MON APR 4 2016

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY THROUGH TUESDAY...

.TODAY...N WIND 30 KT. SEAS 11 FT. RAIN.
.TONIGHT...N WIND 30 KT. SEAS 12 FT. RAIN AND SNOW SHOWERS.
.TUE...NW WIND 30 KT. SEAS 11 FT. RAIN.
.TUE NIGHT...NW WIND 20 KT. SEAS 8 FT.
.WED...S WIND 20 KT. SEAS 7 FT.
.THU...SE WIND 25 KT. SEAS 13 FT.
.FRI...SE WIND 20 KT. SEAS 6 FT.

$$

PKZ171-050045-
UNALASKA BAY-
330 AM AKDT MON APR 4 2016

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY TUESDAY...

.TODAY...NE WIND 15 KT. SEAS 5 FT. RAIN.
.TONIGHT...NW WIND 20 KT. SEAS 7 FT. RAIN.
.TUE...NW WIND 25 KT. SEAS 9 FT. RAIN.
.TUE NIGHT...NW WIND 15 KT. SEAS 5 FT.
.WED THROUGH THU...SE WIND 15 KT. SEAS 2 FT.
.FRI...S WIND 10 KT. SEAS 2 FT.

$$

PKZ172-050045-
CAPE SARICHEF TO NIKOLSKI PACIFIC SIDE-
330 AM AKDT MON APR 4 2016

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY THROUGH TUESDAY...

.TODAY...N WIND 25 KT. SEAS 11 FT. RAIN.
.TONIGHT...N WIND 30 KT. SEAS 10 FT. RAIN.
.TUE...NW WIND 30 KT. SEAS 9 FT. RAIN.
.TUE NIGHT...W WIND 20 KT. SEAS 8 FT.
.WED...SW WIND 25 KT. SEAS 12 FT.
.THU...SE WIND 25 KT. SEAS 15 FT.
.FRI...S WIND 25 KT. SEAS 11 FT.

$$

PKZ173-050045-
NIKOLSKI TO SEGUAM ISLAND BERING SIDE-
330 AM AKDT MON APR 4 2016

...GALE WARNING THROUGH TONIGHT...

.TODAY...N WIND 35 KT. SEAS 14 FT. RAIN SHOWERS.
.TONIGHT...NW WIND 35 KT. SEAS 14 FT. SNOW AND RAIN SHOWERS.
.TUE...NW WIND 30 KT. SEAS 12 FT.
.TUE NIGHT...S WIND 25 KT. SEAS 8 FT.
.WED...S WIND 25 KT. SEAS 13 FT.
.THU...E WIND 20 KT. SEAS 13 FT.
.FRI...NW WIND 25 KT. SEAS 10 FT.

$$

PKZ174-050045-
NIKOLSKI TO SEGUAM ISLAND PACIFIC SIDE-
330 AM AKDT MON APR 4 2016

...GALE WARNING THROUGH TONIGHT...

.TODAY...N WIND 35 KT. SEAS 14 FT. RAIN.
.TONIGHT...NW WIND 35 KT. SEAS 14 FT. SNOW AND RAIN SHOWERS.
.TUE...NW WIND 30 KT. SEAS 12 FT.
.TUE NIGHT...SW WIND 30 KT. SEAS 7 FT.
.WED...SW WIND 30 KT. SEAS 16 FT.
.THU...SE WIND 25 KT. SEAS 17 FT.
.FRI...W WIND 25 KT. SEAS 16 FT.

$$

PKZ175-050045-
SEGUAM ISLAND TO ADAK BERING SIDE-
330 AM AKDT MON APR 4 2016

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY THROUGH TUESDAY...

.TODAY...N WIND 30 KT. SEAS 12 FT.
.TONIGHT...NW WIND 30 KT. SEAS 11 FT.
.TUE...NW WIND 25 KT. SEAS 9 FT.
.TUE NIGHT...SE WIND 30 KT. SEAS 8 FT.
.WED...SW WIND 30 KT. SEAS 16 FT.
.THU...NE WIND 25 KT. SEAS 12 FT.
.FRI...NW WIND 25 KT. SEAS 9 FT.

$$

PKZ176-050045-
SEGUAM ISLAND TO ADAK PACIFIC SIDE-
330 AM AKDT MON APR 4 2016

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY THROUGH TUESDAY...

.TODAY...NW WIND 30 KT. SEAS 10 FT.
.TONIGHT...NW WIND 30 KT. SEAS 9 FT.
.TUE...W WIND 25 KT. SEAS 8 FT.
.TUE NIGHT...S WIND 30 KT. SEAS 11 FT.
.WED...W WIND 35 KT. SEAS 20 FT.
.THU...N WIND 20 KT. SEAS 14 FT.
.FRI...W WIND 25 KT. SEAS 12 FT.

$$

PKZ177-050045-
ADAK TO KISKA-
330 AM AKDT MON APR 4 2016

...GALE WARNING TUESDAY...

.TODAY...N WIND 25 KT. SEAS 9 FT.
.TONIGHT...NW WIND 20 KT BECOMING VARIABLE 10 KT AFTER MIDNIGHT.
SEAS 7 FT.
.TUE...S WIND 25 KT BECOMING SE 35 KT IN THE AFTERNOON. SEAS 9 FT.
RAIN WITH SNOW.
.TUE NIGHT...S WIND 40 KT. SEAS 19 FT.
.WED...W WIND 40 KT. SEAS 23 FT.
.THU...N WIND 25 KT. SEAS 15 FT.
.FRI...NW WIND 25 KT. SEAS 11 FT.

$$

PKZ178-050045-
KISKA TO ATTU-
330 AM AKDT MON APR 4 2016

...GALE WARNING TUESDAY...

.TODAY...NW WIND 15 KT BECOMING SW IN THE AFTERNOON. SEAS 6 FT.
.TONIGHT...SE WIND 30 KT. SEAS 7 FT. RAIN AND SNOW SHOWERS.
.TUE...SE WIND 35 KT. SEAS 9 FT BUILDING TO 14 FT IN THE
AFTERNOON. RAIN.
.TUE NIGHT...W WIND 45 KT. SEAS 24 FT.
.WED...NW WIND 40 KT. SEAS 23 FT.
.THU...N WIND 25 KT. SEAS 15 FT.
.FRI...NE WIND 20 KT. SEAS 10 FT.

$$

PKZ179-050045-
PRIBILOF ISLANDS NEAR SHORE WATERS-
330 AM AKDT MON APR 4 2016

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY THROUGH TUESDAY...

.TODAY...N WIND 30 KT. SEAS 9 FT. SNOW AND RAIN.
.TONIGHT...N WIND 25 KT. SEAS 8 FT. SNOW SHOWERS AND RAIN SHOWERS.
.TUE...N WIND 20 KT. SEAS 8 FT.
.TUE NIGHT...N WIND 15 KT. SEAS 5 FT.
.WED...E WIND 15 KT. SEAS 6 FT.
.THU...E WIND 15 KT. SEAS 12 FT.
.FRI...E WIND 20 KT. SEAS 7 FT.

$$

PKZ180-050045-
KUSKOKWIM DELTA AND ETOLIN STRAIT-
330 AM AKDT MON APR 4 2016

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY THROUGH TONIGHT...

.TODAY...E WIND 30 KT EXCEPT 20 KT N OF CAPE NEWENHAM. SEAS IN
ICE FREE WATERS 9 FT.
.TONIGHT...NE WIND 30 KT. SEAS IN ICE FREE WATERS 7 FT.
.TUE...NE WIND 20 KT. SEAS IN ICE FREE WATERS 5 FT.
.TUE NIGHT...N WIND 10 KT. SEAS IN ICE FREE WATERS 2 FT.
.WED...E WIND 15 KT. SEAS IN ICE FREE WATERS 2 FT.
.THU...E WIND 25 KT. SEAS IN ICE FREE WATERS 8 FT.
.FRI...E WIND 30 KT. SEAS IN ICE FREE WATERS 8 FT.

$$

PKZ181-050045-
NORTH AND WEST OF NUNIVAK ISLAND-
330 AM AKDT MON APR 4 2016

.TODAY...NE WIND 15 KT. SNOW AND RAIN.
.TONIGHT...NE WIND 15 KT.
.TUE...N WIND 15 KT.
.TUE NIGHT...N WIND 15 KT.
.WED THROUGH THU...E WIND 15 KT.
.FRI...E WIND 25 KT.

$$

PKZ185-050045-
SAINT MATTHEW ISLAND WATERS-
330 AM AKDT MON APR 4 2016

.TODAY...N WIND 20 KT. SNOW.
.TONIGHT...N WIND 20 KT.
.TUE...N WIND 15 KT.
.TUE NIGHT...NE WIND 20 KT.
.WED THROUGH FRI...NE WIND 25 KT.

$$

SOUTHCENTRAL AND SOUTHWEST ALASKA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ANCHORAGE AK
438 AM AKDT SUN APR 3 2016

.ANALYSIS AND UPPER LEVELS...
THE SAME GENERAL SYNOPTIC PATTERN REMAINS IN PLACE OVER ALASKA AND
THE NORTH PACIFIC WITH A EASTWARD MOVING RIDGE OVER THE WESTERN
NORTH AMERICAN COAST...A BROAD AND DEEPENING TROUGH OVER THE NORTH
PACIFIC...AND A BUILDING RIDGE OVER THE EASTERN RUSSIAN COAST.
WITHIN THE BROAD TROUGH...A SHORTWAVE TROUGH IS CENTERED OVER THE
NORTHEASTERN PACIFIC/GULF OF ALASKA AND IS ROTATING NORTHEASTWARD AS
THE RIDGE MOVES EAST. A 999 MB LOW WITH ITS ASSOCIATED OCCLUDED
FRONT IS LOCATED NEAR THE BASE OF THIS TROUGH AND IS MOVING
NORTHWARD INTO THE SOUTHEASTERN GULF OF ALASKA.
WEAKER SHORTWAVES ARE MOVING THROUGH THE NORTHWARD PORTION OF
THIS TROUGH...BRINGING PRECIPITATION TO KODIAK AND SOUTHWEST
ALASKA.

FURTHER WEST...THE LONGWAVE TROUGH IS STARTING TO DEEPEN AS THE
RUSSIAN RIDGE BUILDS POLEWARD. WITHIN THE EAST SIDE OF THIS TROUGH
IS A CLOSED 519 DM LOW NEAR 47N 173W WITH A STILL INTENSIFYING
981 MB SURFACE LOW SLIGHTLY DISPLACED FROM THE UPPER LOW. THE
AMPLIFICATION OF THE TROUGH IS FINALLY PULLING THE POLAR JET WHICH
HAS BEEN GENERALLY AROUND 35-40N NORTHWARD...PUTTING THE SURFACE LOW
IN THE LEFT EXIT REGION OF AN APPROXIMATELY 160KT JET.
THE BUILDING RIDGE TO THE WEST IS KEEPING MOST OF THE BERING SEA
IN A NORTH TO NORTHEASTERLY FLOW.

FINALLY...IN BETWEEN THE TWO TROUGHS...A WEAKENING VERTICALLY
STACKED LOW NEAR DUTCH HARBOR IS SLOWLY BEING ABSORBED INTO THE
LARGER LOW TO THE SOUTHWEST.

&&

.MODEL DISCUSSION...
IN THE SHORT TERM...THERE ARE FEW SIGNIFICANT DIFFERENCES BETWEEN
THE GLOBAL MODELS WITH THE EVOLUTION OF THE MAJOR SYNOPTIC
FEATURES. IN THE SHORT TERM...THE NAM WAS AGAIN PREFERRED FOR
THIS PACKAGE FOR THE HIGHER RESOLUTION.

MODELS ON DAY 3 BEGIN TO DIVERGE SOMEWHAT WITH THE MOVEMENT AND
DEPTH OF A LOW OVER THE WESTERN ALEUTIANS...WITH THE AMERICAN
MODELS BEING SLIGHTLY SLOWER AND FURTHER WEST THAN THE GEM-NH AND
THE EC. FOR DAY 3...THE FORECAST IS MOSTLY THE NAM WITH A BLEND OF
THE EC OVER THE WESTERN BERING.

&&

.SHORT TERM FORECAST SOUTHCENTRAL ALASKA (DAYS 1 AND 2...SUN AND MON)...

A MID-LEVEL RIDGE AXIS THIS MORNING IS LOCATED FROM NEAR
MIDDLETON ISLAND EXTENDING WEST-NORTHWEST TO NEAR SLEETMUTE. NORTH
OF THIS LINE...AN OVERCAST MID-LEVEL DECK IS STILL EVIDENT ON
SATELLITE. A WEAK UPPER DISTURBANCE CONTINUES TO MOVE NORTH
THROUGH THE SUSITNA VALLEY BRINGING SPOTTY RAIN AND SNOW SHOWERS.
THESE WILL END QUICKLY THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF THE MORNING
HOURS...WITH PARTIAL CLEARING AS THE MID-LEVEL RIDGE AXIS MOVES
THROUGH.

THE RIDGE AXIS MOVES TO THE ALASKA RANGE AND POINTS NORTH BY THIS
EVENING...ALLOWING FOR A RETURN OF CLOUDS ESPECIALLY TOWARD THE
COOK INLET REGION...WHICH WILL LIE BETWEEN THE TROUGH TO THE WEST
AND THE RIDGE TO THE NORTH AND EAST. TOWARD KODIAK ISLAND...THIS
WILL MEAN CONTINUED OVERCAST CONDITIONS AND AT LEAST A CHANCE OF
RAIN CONTINUING THROUGH TONIGHT.

BY LATE MONDAY INTO MONDAY NIGHT...A WARM FRONT WILL ORGANIZE AND
MOVE NORTH TOWARD THE GULF COAST. AS IT APPROACHES A BARRIER JET
WILL ORGANIZE WITH THE POTENTIAL FOR NEAR-GALES ALONG THE
IMMEDIATE NORTH GULF COAST EXTENDING SOUTH AND WEST THROUGH THE
BARREN ISLANDS AND SHELIKOF STRAIT. WIDESPREAD RAIN SHOULD BE
EXPECTED ALONG THE COAST...WITH THE POTENTIAL FOR A MIX OR
CHANGEOVER TO SNOW TOWARD THOMPSON PASS MONDAY NIGHT.

&&

.SHORT TERM FORECAST SOUTHWEST ALASKA (DAYS 1 AND 2)...

A WEAK TROUGH WITHIN THE 850 MB TO 500 MB LAYER WILL LIFT ACROSS THE
SOUTHWEST MAINLAND TODAY AND BRING YET ANOTHER ROUND OF
PRECIPITATION TO THE REGION. RAINFALL HAS ALREADY STARTED TO DEVELOP
WITHIN THE BRISTOL BAY ZONE EARLY THIS MORNING AND SHOULD CONTINUE
TO SPREAD NORTHWARD THROUGHOUT THE MORNING. THE LOWER KUSKOKWIM
VALLEY AND KUSKOKWIM DELTA WILL LIKELY SEE SOME SNOW THROUGH THE
FIRST HALF OF THE MORNING BEFORE QUICKLY CHANGING TO RAIN AS
TEMPERATURES WARM. A FRONT ATTACHED TO A LOW MOVING SOUTH OF THE
EASTERN ALEUTIANS WILL DRIVE A FRONT TOWARD THE ALASKA PENINSULA BY
EARLY MONDAY MORNING BUT WILL STRUGGLE TO MOVE INLAND AS THE PARENT
LOW WEAKENS AND STALLS SOUTH OF COLD BAY. THIS WILL LIMIT HOW MUCH
PRECIPITATION WILL BE SEEN ACROSS THE SOUTHWEST MAINLAND. AT THIS
TIME...IT LOOKS LIKE THE BULK OF THE PRECIPITATION WILL BE CONFINED
TO UPSLOPE LOCATIONS OF THE ALEUTIAN RANGE THROUGH MONDAY BEFORE A
FEW SHOWERS BEGIN TO MOVE INLAND ON TUESDAY. BASED ON FORECAST HIGH
TEMPERATURES FOR TODAY...IT LOOKS LIKE BOTH KING SALMON AND BETHEL
WILL ONCE AGAIN APPROACH RECORD HIGH TEMPERATURES.
THIS ABNORMALLY WARM PERIOD OF WEATHER STILL SHOWS NO SIGN OF
CHANGING.

&&

.SHORT TERM FORECAST BERING SEA/ALEUTIANS (DAYS 1 AND 2)...

NORTHEASTERLY WINDS WILL PREVAIL ACROSS MUCH OF THE BERING SEA
THROUGH MONDAY BEFORE A FRONT ASSOCIATED WITH A LOW ORIGINATING
OFF THE COAST OF CHINA ENTERS THE FAR WESTERN BERING SEA. BEFORE
THAT...A LOW CURRENTLY SOUTH OF ATKA WILL MOVE SOUTH OF UNALASKA
MONDAY MORNING AND PUSH A FRONT THROUGH THE SOUTHEASTERN BERING
SEA. THIS SHOULD BRING A BRIEF PERIOD OF GALE FORCE WINDS TO
SEVERAL MARINE ZONES ALONG THE ALEUTIAN ISLANDS AS WELL AS SOME
PRETTY DECENT RAINFALL STARTING LATE TONIGHT AND CONTINUING
THROUGH EARLY TUESDAY MORNING. MUCH OF THE ALEUTIANS WILL CONTINUE
TO SEE TEMPERATURES A GOOD BIT ABOVE NORMAL. THE PRIBILOF ISLANDS
WILL  CONTINUE TO FEEL THE EFFECT OF A COLDER AIR MASS THAT
CONTINUES TO DROP SOUTH FROM SIBERIA.

&&

.LONG TERM FORECAST (DAYS 3 THROUGH 7)...
THE PATTERN OF TROUGHING OVER THE BERING AND RIDGING OVER THE
EASTERN PART OF THE STATE LOOKS TO CONTINUE THROUGH NEXT WEEK.
THIS WILL KEEP WARM SOUTHERLY FLOW MOVING IN OVER THE SOUTHERN
MAINLAND WITH COLD NORTHERLY FLOW OVER THE WESTERN ALEUTIANS. IN
THIS SETUP THE MAJORITY OF THE PRECIPITATION WILL BE ALONG THE
NORTH GULF COAST...WEST COAST AND ALEUTIANS AS LOWS MOVE THROUGH
THE BROAD TROUGH. THE MODELS ARE IN GOOD AGREEMENT WITH THE MAJOR
PATTERN BUT STRUGGLE WITH THE EXACT PLACEMENT AND TIMING OF LOWS
EMBEDDED IN THE TROUGH.

&&

.AFC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
PUBLIC...NONE.
MARINE...GALE 138 150 155 173 174
         HEAVY FREEZING SPRAY 411 412

&&

SYNOPSIS AND MODEL DISCUSSION...RLF
SOUTHCENTRAL ALASKA...CC
SOUTHWEST ALASKA/BERING SEA/ALEUTIANS...MC
LONG TERM...DEK