Gale Warning 314, NWS Anchorage, AK

516 
FZAK62 PAFC 151149
OFFALU

OFFSHORE WATERS FORECAST
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ANCHORAGE AK
349 AM AKDT FRI APR 15 2016

OFFSHORE WATERS FORECAST FOR THE BERING SEA

WIND FORECASTS REFLECT THE PREDOMINANT SPEED AND DIRECTION
EXPECTED. SEA FORECASTS REPRESENT AN AVERAGE OF THE HIGHEST
ONE-THIRD OF THE COMBINED WIND WAVE AND SWELL HEIGHT.

PKZ499-160215-
349 AM AKDT FRI APR 15 2016
.SYNOPSIS FOR CENTRAL BERING SEA...

A 992 MB LOW AT 52N 157W WILL WEAKEN TO 1001 MB AS IT EXITS TO THE
NORTH PACIFIC TONIGHT. A 971 MB LOW SOUTHWEST OF THE KAMCHATKA
PENINSULA WILL MOVE TO 52N 171E AT 977 MB BY SAT NIGHT. THE
ASSOCIATED FRONT WILL TRACK FROM THE WESTERN BERING TONIGHT TO
THE CENTRAL BERING BY SAT NIGHT.

$$

PKZ411-160215-
BERING SEA OFFSHORE WEST OF 180 AND EAST OF THE INTERNATIONAL
DATELINE-
349 AM AKDT FRI APR 15 2016

...STORM WARNING SATURDAY...

.TODAY...NW WIND 10 KT BECOMING SE 10 TO 25 KT IN THE AFTERNOON.
SEAS 4 FT.
.TONIGHT...SE WIND 15 TO 30 KT INCREASING TO 30 TO 45 KT AFTER
MIDNIGHT. SEAS 5 TO 10 FT. RAIN AND SNOW.
.SAT...SE WIND 35 TO 50 KT. SEAS 10 TO 18 FT. RAIN AND SNOW.
.SAT NIGHT...SE WIND 25 TO 40 KT. SEAS 12 TO 19 FT.
.SUN THROUGH TUE...NE WIND 20 TO 35 KT. SEAS 9 TO 17 FT.

$$

PKZ412-160215-
BERING SEA OFFSHORE 171W TO 180 AND NORTH OF 56N-
349 AM AKDT FRI APR 15 2016

...GALE WARNING SATURDAY...

.TODAY...NW WIND 10 TO 25 KT. SEAS 3 TO 7 FT. FREEZING SPRAY N OF
57N.
.TONIGHT...NW WIND 10 TO 20 KT. SEAS 4 FT.
.SAT...SE WIND 10 TO 25 KT INCREASING TO 20 TO 35 KT IN THE
AFTERNOON. SEAS 3 TO 8 FT.
.SAT NIGHT...E WIND 25 TO 40 KT. SEAS 7 TO 12 FT.
.SUN...E WIND 25 TO 40 KT. SEAS 8 TO 16 FT.
.MON THROUGH TUE...E WIND 15 TO 30 KT. SEAS 8 TO 13 FT.

$$

PKZ413-160215-
BERING SEA OFFSHORE 171W TO 180 AND SOUTH OF 56N-
349 AM AKDT FRI APR 15 2016

...GALE WARNING SATURDAY...

.TODAY...NW WIND 10 TO 25 KT. SEAS 5 TO 9 FT.
.TONIGHT...NW WIND UP TO 20 KT BECOMING SE 10 TO 25 KT AFTER
MIDNIGHT. SEAS 4 TO 7 FT.
.SAT...SE WIND 25 TO 40 KT. SEAS 6 TO 11 FT. RAIN AND SNOW.
.SAT NIGHT...SE WIND 25 TO 40 KT. SEAS 9 TO 14 FT.
.SUN...S WIND 15 TO 30 KT. SEAS 8 TO 13 FT.
.MON THROUGH TUE...E WIND 10 TO 20 KT. SEAS 6 TO 11 FT.

$$

PKZ414-160215-
BERING SEA OFFSHORE EAST OF 171W-
349 AM AKDT FRI APR 15 2016

.TODAY...NW WIND 20 TO 30 KT. SEAS 5 TO 9 FT.
.TONIGHT...NW WIND 15 TO 25 KT. SEAS 4 TO 8 FT.
.SAT...N WIND 10 TO 20 KT. SEAS 3 TO 6 FT. FREEZING SPRAY NEAR THE
ICE EDGE.
.SAT NIGHT...E WIND 15 TO 30 KT. SEAS 3 TO 7 FT.
.SUN THROUGH TUE...E WIND 15 TO 30 KT. SEAS 5 TO 10 FT.

$$

SOUTHCENTRAL AND SOUTHWEST ALASKA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ANCHORAGE AK
520 AM AKDT THU APR 14 2016

.ANALYSIS AND UPPER LEVELS...
AN UPPER LEVEL LOW CONTINUES TO WEAKEN OVER THE CENTRAL GULF OF
ALASKA...WITH AN UPPER LEVEL RIDGE STRETCHING FROM THE EASTERN
INTERIOR ALONG THE ALCAN BORDER AND DOWN TO SOUTHEAST ALASKA.
BETWEEN THESE TWO FEATURES...AN EXPANSIVE AREA OF MID- AND HIGH-
LEVEL CLOUDS PREDOMINATES OVER SOUTHCENTRAL ALASKA...WITH
SCATTERED SHOWERS PERSISTING ALONG THE NORTHERN GULF COAST AND
AROUND THE COOK INLET REGION.

OUT WEST...WEAK UPPER LEVEL RIDGING BEGINS TO BUILD OVER THE
WESTERN ALEUTIANS BETWEEN AN EXPANSIVE UPPER LOW JUST SOUTH OF
DUTCH HARBOR AND AN UPPER LOW OVER NORTHEASTERN RUSSIA...WITH
ANOTHER WEAK UPPER LOW FORMING OVER THE BERING STRAIT. AT THE
SURFACE...A WEAKENING FRONT ASSOCIATED WITH THE VERTICALLY STACKED
LOW SOUTH OF DUTCH HARBOR HAS PUSHED EASTWARD OVER THE EASTERN
ALEUTIANS AND ALASKA PENINSULA...KEEPING A MIX OF RAIN AND SNOW
OVER THE AREA.

&&

.MODEL DISCUSSION...
THE MODELS REMAIN LOCKED IN ON THE OVERALL SYNOPTIC PATTERN IN
THE SHORT TERM AS THE LARGE NORTH PACIFIC LOW SKIRTS THE ALEUTIAN
CHAIN AND TRACKS EASTWARD SOUTH OF KODIAK ISLAND FRIDAY...THEN
INTO THE NORTHEAST PACIFIC BY SUNDAY. MODELS REMAIN IN FAIR
AGREEMENT WITH RIDGING BUILDING BACK OVER THE SOUTHCENTRAL
INTERIOR AND NORTHERN GULF COAST OVER THE WEEKEND. MODELS ARE
ALSO KEYING IN ON A SOLID GALE-FORCE FRONT ENTERING THE WESTERN
ALEUTIANS/BERING FRIDAY AFTERNOON. THE MODELS THEN SHOW THIS
SYSTEM SPREADING EASTWARD OVER THE CENTRAL ALEUTIANS/BERING BY
SATURDAY...AND INTO THE EASTERN ALEUTIANS/BERING BY SUNDAY.

&&

.SHORT TERM FORECAST SOUTHCENTRAL ALASKA (DAYS 1 AND 2)...
A WEAK UPPER LEVEL WAVE IS SUPPORTING SCATTERED SHOWERS ACROSS
PRINCE WILLIAM SOUND THIS MORNING. THIS WAVE WILL SUPPORT SHOWERS
ACROSS THE KENAI PENINSULA AND ANCHORAGE BOWL. AS THERE IS LITTLE
AVAILABLE MOISTURE OR SURFACE FORCING...SHOWERS WILL REMAIN
RELATIVELY LIGHT AND SCATTERED. SKIES SHOULD BECOME MORE SUNNY BY
THIS AFTERNOON AS THIS WAVE PUSHES WESTWARD AND SUBSIDENCE BRIEFLY
OCCURS...BEFORE ANOTHER WEAK WAVE MOVES THROUGH OVERNIGHT. RAIN
WILL BECOME MORE STEADY BY FRIDAY ALONG THE GULF COAST AS A WEAK
FRONT PUSHES NORTHWARDS. FLOW IS EXPECTED TO REMAIN CROSS BARRIER
WITH THIS SYSTEM...AND DOWNSLOPING SHOULD LIMIT RAINFALL ACROSS
THE ANCHORAGE BOWL...WEST KENAI PENINSULA AND MATANUSKA VALLEY.
&&

.SHORT TERM FORECAST SOUTHWEST ALASKA (DAYS 1 AND 2)...
CLOUD COVER WILL CONTINUE TO INCREASE OVER THE SOUTHWEST MAINLAND
TODAY AS AN APPROACHING FRONT STALLS NEAR THE ALASKA PENINSULA
AND A WEAK UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE MOVES OVERHEAD FROM THE EAST.
THIS FEATURE WILL ALSO SUPPORT A FEW SHOWERS ACROSS THE BRISTOL
BAY REGION THROUGH TONIGHT BEFORE NORTHERLY FLOW USHERS IN A
PERIOD OF DRIER CONDITIONS FOR THE REST OF THE WEEK AS THE LOW
SOUTH OF THE ALEUTIANS MOVES OFF TO THE EAST. DAYTIME HIGH
TEMPERATURES WILL REMAIN WELL ABOVE NORMAL THROUGH THE END OF THE
WORK WEEK WITH CONTINUED LIGHT OFFSHORE FLOW.

&&

.SHORT TERM FORECAST BERING SEA/ALEUTIANS (DAYS 1 AND 2)...
THE WEAKENING FRONT DRAPED ACROSS THE ALASKA PENINSULA WILL
CONTINUE TO BRING STEADY RAIN TO THE SOUTHEAST BERING TODAY...WITH
PRECIPITATION TAPERING OFF TO SHOWERS THIS EVENING AND GRADUALLY
DIMINISHING IN COVERAGE THROUGH FRIDAY AS THE ASSOCIATED LOW
CENTER MOVES OFF TO THE EAST. ANOTHER FRONT WILL ENTER THE WESTERN
ALEUTIANS FRIDAY EVENING ACCOMPANIED BY GALE FORCE WINDS AND
ANOTHER ROUND OF RAIN AND SNOW SPREADING FROM SHEMYA TO ADAK BY
SATURDAY MORNING.

&&

.LONG TERM FORECAST (DAYS 3 THROUGH 7)...

A TROUGH CENTERED OVER THE NORTH PACIFIC AND EXTENDING INTO THE
GULF OF ALASKA AND RIDGING OVER THE BERING SEA WILL BE THE MAIN
FEATURES OF INTEREST BEGINNING THE EXTENDED PERIOD ON FRIDAY
AFTERNOON. WEAK WAVES EMBEDDED WITHIN THE FLOW WILL HELP TO SPREAD
MOISTURE...CLOUDS...AND SHOWERS ACROSS THE GULF AND INTO INLAND
LOCATIONS...ALTHOUGH THOSE WILL MOSTLY BE OVER THE MOUNTAINS.
OTHERWISE...WITH A PRESSURE GRADIENT REMAINING CROSS
BARRIER...TEMPERATURES WILL REMAIN WELL ABOVE AVERAGE FOR MOST
INLAND LOCATIONS AS BREAKUP SEASON BEGINS. A STRONG GALE FORCE
FRONT ASSOCIATED WITH ANOTHER LARGE WESTERN BERING LOW WILL MOVE
INTO THE BERING SEA AND TRACK EAST...WITH MORE SOUTHEASTERLY FLOW
ALOFT REDEVELOPING OVER SOUTHERN ALASKA SOMETIME MIDWEEK THROUGH
LATE NEXT WEEK.

&&

.AFC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
PUBLIC...NONE.
MARINE...GALES...174 176.

&&

SYNOPSIS AND MODEL DISCUSSION...PEPE
SOUTHCENTRAL ALASKA...ELN
SOUTHWEST ALASKA/BERING SEA/ALEUTIANS...CB
LONG TERM...JA