Gale Warning 304, NWS Anchorage, AK

849 
FZAK62 PAFC 061128
OFFALU

OFFSHORE WATERS FORECAST
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ANCHORAGE AK
328 AM AKDT WED APR 6 2016

OFFSHORE WATERS FORECAST FOR THE BERING SEA

WIND FORECASTS REFLECT THE PREDOMINANT SPEED AND DIRECTION
EXPECTED. SEA FORECASTS REPRESENT AN AVERAGE OF THE HIGHEST
ONE-THIRD OF THE COMBINED WIND WAVE AND SWELL HEIGHT.

PKZ499-070215-
328 AM AKDT WED APR 6 2016
.SYNOPSIS FOR CENTRAL BERING SEA...
A 983 MB LOW AT 56N 175E MOVES TO 54N 164E AND WEAKENS TO 1004 MB
FRI MORNING. A NORTH PACIFIC LOW MOVES TO 47N 177W AT 977 MB THU
MORNING. THE ASSOCIATED FRONT ROTATES SOUTH OF THE ALASKA PENINSULA
FRI MORNING.

$$

PKZ411-070215-
BERING SEA OFFSHORE WEST OF 180 AND EAST OF THE INTERNATIONAL
DATELINE-
328 AM AKDT WED APR 6 2016

...GALE WARNING TODAY...

.TODAY...E WIND 25 TO 35 KT. S OF 56N...SW WIND 20 TO 35 KT. SEAS
12 TO 18 FT. SNOW AND RAIN SHOWERS.
.TONIGHT...S WIND 10 TO 25 KT. SEAS 10 TO 14 FT.
.THU...S WIND UP TO 15 KT BECOMING VARIABLE IN THE AFTERNOON.
SEAS 6 TO 9 FT.
.THU NIGHT...N WIND UP TO 20 KT. SEAS 6 FT.
.FRI THROUGH SUN...N WIND 10 TO 25 KT. SEAS 6 TO 11 FT.

$$

PKZ412-070215-
BERING SEA OFFSHORE 171W TO 180 AND NORTH OF 56N-
328 AM AKDT WED APR 6 2016

.TODAY...SE WIND 15 TO 30 KT. SEAS 4 TO 9 FT. SNOW. FREEZING
SPRAY IN THE MORNING N OF 57N.
.TONIGHT...E WIND 15 TO 25 KT. S OF 57N...SW WIND 10 TO 25 KT.
SEAS 6 TO 11 FT. SNOW.
.THU...NE WIND 10 TO 15 KT. SEAS 9 FT.
.THU NIGHT...NE WIND 10 TO 20 KT. SEAS 7 FT.
.FRI THROUGH SAT...NE WIND 20 TO 35 KT. SEAS 6 TO 11 FT.
.SUN...NE WIND UP TO 20 KT. SEAS 3 TO 7 FT.

$$

PKZ413-070215-
BERING SEA OFFSHORE 171W TO 180 AND SOUTH OF 56N-
328 AM AKDT WED APR 6 2016

...GALE WARNING TODAY...

.TODAY...SE WIND 20 TO 35 KT BECOMING SW WIND 15 TO 25 KT IN THE
MORNING. SEAS 8 TO 13 FT. SNOW AND RAIN SHOWERS.
.TONIGHT...SW WIND 10 TO 20 KT. SEAS 9 TO 14 FT.
.THU...NE WIND 10 TO 20 KT. SEAS 9 FT.
.THU NIGHT...NE WIND 10 TO 25 KT. SEAS 7 FT.
.FRI THROUGH SAT...NE WIND 15 TO 30 KT. SEAS 7 TO 12 FT.
.SUN...NW WIND UP TO 15 KT. SEAS 3 TO 8 FT.

$$

PKZ414-070215-
BERING SEA OFFSHORE EAST OF 171W-
328 AM AKDT WED APR 6 2016

.TODAY...SE WIND 10 TO 20 KT. SEAS 3 FT. RAIN.
.TONIGHT...SE WIND 10 TO 15 KT EXCEPT W WIND 10 TO 15 KT S OF
THE PRIBILOFS. SEAS 3 TO 7 FT. RAIN.
.THU...E WIND 10 TO 15 KT. SEAS 3 TO 8 FT.
.THU NIGHT...E WIND 10 TO 25 KT. SEAS 6 FT.
.FRI...E WIND 20 TO 35 KT. SEAS 7 TO 12 FT.
.SAT THROUGH SUN...SE WIND UP TO 20 KT. SEAS 3 TO 7 FT.

$$

111 
FZAK62 PAFC 062307
OFFALU

OFFSHORE WATERS FORECAST
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ANCHORAGE AK
307 PM AKDT WED APR 6 2016

OFFSHORE WATERS FORECAST FOR THE BERING SEA

WIND FORECASTS REFLECT THE PREDOMINANT SPEED AND DIRECTION
EXPECTED. SEA FORECASTS REPRESENT AN AVERAGE OF THE HIGHEST
ONE-THIRD OF THE COMBINED WIND WAVE AND SWELL HEIGHT.

PKZ499-071330-
307 PM AKDT WED APR 6 2016
.SYNOPSIS FOR CENTRAL BERING SEA...
A FRONT OVER THE CENTRAL BERING REMAINS NEARLY STATIONARY AND
DISSIPATES BY THU AFTERNOON. ANOTHER STRONG FRONT APPROACHES THE
CENTRAL ALEUTIANS THU AFTERNOON. A 982 MB LOW NEAR 52N 169W
DEVELOPS ALONG THAT FRONT EARLY FRI MORNING...THEN THE LOW MOVES
TO 53N 169W AT 983 MB FRI AFTERNOON.

$$

PKZ411-071330-
BERING SEA OFFSHORE WEST OF 180 AND EAST OF THE INTERNATIONAL
DATELINE-
307 PM AKDT WED APR 6 2016

.TONIGHT...S WIND 10 TO 25 KT. SEAS 11 TO 15 FT.
.THU...S WIND UP TO 15 KT BECOMING E IN THE AFTERNOON. 
SEAS 6 TO 9 FT.
.THU NIGHT...N WIND 10 TO 20 KT. SEAS 6 FT.
.FRI...N WIND UP TO 20 KT. SEAS 6 FT.
.FRI NIGHT...N WIND 10 TO 25 KT. SEAS 5 TO 8 FT.
.SAT THROUGH MON...NW WIND 15 TO 30 KT. SEAS 8 TO 13 FT.

$$

PKZ412-071330-
BERING SEA OFFSHORE 171W TO 180 AND NORTH OF 56N-
307 PM AKDT WED APR 6 2016

.TONIGHT...E WIND 15 TO 25 KT. S OF 57N...SW WIND 10 TO 25 KT.
SEAS 6 TO 11 FT. SNOW.
.THU...NE WIND 10 TO 15 KT. SEAS 7 TO 10 FT.
.THU NIGHT...NE WIND 20 KT. SEAS 7 FT.
.FRI...NE WIND 15 TO 30 KT. SEAS 5 TO 8 FT.
.FRI NIGHT...NE WIND 25 TO 35 KT. SEAS 6 TO 11 FT.
.SAT THROUGH SUN...NE WIND 15 TO 30 KT. SEAS 4 TO 9 FT.
.MON...N WIND 10 TO 20 KT. SEAS 3 TO 8 FT.

$$

PKZ413-071330-
BERING SEA OFFSHORE 171W TO 180 AND SOUTH OF 56N-
307 PM AKDT WED APR 6 2016

.TONIGHT...W WIND 20 KT BECOMING SW UP TO 15 KT AFTER MIDNIGHT.
SEAS 9 TO 14 FT.
.THU...N WIND 10 TO 15 KT. SEAS 8 FT.
.THU NIGHT...NE WIND 10 TO 25 KT. SEAS 7 FT.
.FRI...N WIND 20 TO 30 KT. SEAS 6 TO 10 FT.
.FRI NIGHT...N WIND 20 TO 30 KT. SEAS 8 TO 12 FT.
.SAT THROUGH MON...W WIND 15 TO 30 KT. SEAS 7 TO 12 FT.

$$

PKZ414-071330-
BERING SEA OFFSHORE EAST OF 171W-
307 PM AKDT WED APR 6 2016

.TONIGHT...SE WIND 10 TO 15 KT. SEAS 3 TO 7 FT. RAIN.
.THU...E WIND 10 TO 15 KT. SEAS 3 TO 8 FT.
.THU NIGHT...E WIND 10 TO 25 KT. SEAS 6 FT.
.FRI...NE WIND 20 TO 35 KT. SEAS 5 TO 10 FT.
.FRI NIGHT...E WIND 15 TO 30 KT. SEAS 6 TO 11 FT.
.SAT THROUGH SUN...SE WIND 15 TO 30 KT. SEAS 5 TO 10 FT.
.MON...N WIND 10 TO 20 KT. SEAS 3 TO 8 FT.

$$

SOUTHCENTRAL AND SOUTHWEST ALASKA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ANCHORAGE AK
453 AM AKDT TUE APR 5 2016

.ANALYSIS AND UPPER LEVELS...
THE SYNOPTIC SCALE PATTERN CONTINUES TO EVOLVE OVER ALASKA AND THE
NORTH PACIFIC WITH A HIGH AMPLITUDE TROUGH ALONG 165W EXTENDING
SOUTHWARD TO ABOUT 30N AND A PAIR OF WEAK RIDGES ON EITHER SIDE OF
THE TROUGH. EMBEDDED IN THIS DEEP TROUGH IS A BROAD CLOSED LOW
SOUTH OF THE ALASKA PENINSULA WITH SEVERAL SHORTWAVES ROTATING
AROUND THE PARENT LOW. THE POLAR JET IS EXTENDING POLEWARD ALONG
THIS TROUGH WITH A JET MAX OF ABOUT 140KT NEAR THE BASE OF THE
TROUGH. TO THE EAST...A RIDGE IS REBUILDING OVER THE NORTHEASTERN
PACIFIC. OUT WEST...A SHORTWAVE RIDGE HAS ITS AXIS ALONG 170E THIS
MORNING AND IS MOVING EASTWARD. FINALLY...A BROAD AND EXPANDING
TROUGH IS IN PLACE OVER NORTHEASTERN RUSSIA.

FOR SOUTHCENTRAL/SOUTHWEST ALASKA...THE MAIN WEATHER FEATURE THIS
MORNING IS THE CLOSED LOW SOUTH OF THE ALASKA PENINSULA. A BROAD
985MB LOW IS ROUGHLY CENTERED UNDER THE LOW WITH THE ASSOCIATED
OCCLUDED FRONT MOVING INTO THE NORTHERN GULF COAST THIS MORNING.
MULTIPLE WEAK SURFACE TROUGHS ARE ROTATING AROUND THE LOW. A
DEFORMATION ZONE ALONG 170W IS BRINGING SNOW TO THE PRIBILOF
ISLANDS.

OUT WEST...A 982 MB LOW ABOUT 600NM SOUTHWEST OF SHEMYA IS
RAPIDLY DEVELOPING THIS MORNING. THIS LOW IS DEVELOPING ALONG THE
EASTERN SIDE OF THE BROAD TROUGH OVER NORTHEAST RUSSIA IN THE LEFT
EXIT REGION OF A 130KT JET.

&&

.MODEL DISCUSSION...
MODELS ARE IN REASONABLE AGREEMENT THROUGH THE SHORT TERM. MOST
DIFFERENCES IN THE MODELS DEAL WITH HOW THE LOW SOUTHWEST OF
SHEMYA EVOLVES WEDNESDAY MORNING...BUT OVERALL AGREE ON THE SYSTEM
BECOMING A BROAD EAST-WEST LOW BEFORE DISSIPATING BY THURSDAY
MORNING. MODELS ARE IN GOOD AGREEMENT AT THE END OF THE SHORT TERM
WITH THE RAPID DEVELOPMENT OF ANOTHER NORTH PACIFIC LOW THAT WILL
BE ABOUT 350 NM SOUTH OF ADAK ON THURSDAY MORNING. AS THIS SYSTEM
EVOLVES INTO THE DAY 3 TIME FRAME...MODELS BEGIN TO DIVERGE SOME
WITH THE NAM BEING THE SLOWEST TO ROTATE THE ASSOCIATED FRONT
NORTHWARD INTO THE ALASKA PENINSULA.

THROUGH DAY 2...THE FORECAST PACKAGE USED THE NAM AS PRIMARY
GUIDANCE WITH A TREND TOWARD THE GFS BY THE END OF DAY 3.

&&

.SHORT TERM FORECAST SOUTHCENTRAL ALASKA (DAYS 1 AND 2...THROUGH WED NIGHT)...
A WEATHER FRONT ALONG THE NORTH GULF COAST LIFTS NORTH TODAY.
PRECIPITATION WITH THIS FEATURE WILL MAINLY IMPACT THE COASTAL
LOCALS WITH INLAND AREAS SEEING LESSER AMOUNTS DUE TO DOWNSLOPE
(CROSS BARRIER FLOW). GALES THIS MORNING ACROSS MARINE AREAS WILL
WEAKEN WITH PRESSURE GRADIENTS AND ALLOW FOR SOME LIGHT SEABREEZE
CONDITIONS IN SELECT COASTAL MARINE AREAS. STRONG PRESSURE RISES
ON THE BACKSIDE OF THE FRONT WILL GIVE RISE TO BRISK SOUTH TO
SOUTHEAST WINDS ACROSS THE COPPER RIVER BASIN AND OUT OF THE KNIK
RIVER VALLEY. OTHER GAP WINDS ARE LIKELY ACROSS TURNAGAIN ARM
WITH A GOOD CHANCE OF WINDS BENDING INTO SOUTH AND WEST ANCHORAGE
THIS AFTERNOON. LOCAL GAP FLOWS WILL WEAKEN OVERNIGHT...THEN HAVE
A BRIEF RESURGENCE WED.

COLDER AIR ALOFT SPREADING NORTH ACROSS THE GULF WITH THE UPPER
TROUGH TONIGHT AND WED WILL BRING MORE UNSTABLE CONDITIONS WITH
SHOWERS BECOMING THE DOMINATE PRECIPITATION FORM. ISOLATED
THUNDERSTORMS ARE ALSO POSSIBLE TONIGHT AND WED ACROSS THE GULF.
CURRENT THINKING IS THAT THUNDERSTORMS WILL FORM OVER THE
RELATIVELY WARM GULF WATERS. TOUGH SOME COASTAL AREAS COULD SEE
ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS MOVE ON SHORE OVER DEVELOP IN UPSLOPE AREAS
WITH THE STEERING FLOW FROM THE SOUTH.

&&

.SHORT TERM FORECAST SOUTHWEST ALASKA (DAYS 1 AND 2)...
THE WEATHER FOR THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS REVOLVES AROUND A STUBBORN
UPPER LEVEL CIRCULATION CURRENTLY SOUTH OF THE ALASKA PENINSULA.
THIS IS A MATURE SYSTEM WITH VERY LITTLE PUNCH LEFT TO
IT...HOWEVER THERE IS STILL PLENTIFUL MOISTURE AND DECENT COLD AIR
ALOFT TO FUEL SHOWERS...ALONG WITH SOME TRANSIENT DISTURBANCES
MOVING AROUND THE UPPER LOW. STANDING SHOWERS ARE LINGERING AROUND
BRISTOL BAY EARLY THIS MORNING MOUNTAIN WAVE FORCING STAYS IN
PLACE...BUT SHOULD DISSIPATE BY AFTERNOON. SOME SHOWERS ARE STILL
POSSIBLE IN THE AREA AS DISTURBANCES TRAVERSE THE AREA THROUGH
TONIGHT. ON WEDNESDAY THE COLD POOL ALOFT AND UPPER LOW ITSELF
ROTATES OVER THE MAINLAND BRINGING A ROUND OF DIURNAL SHOWERS. THE
SYSTEM WILL LINGER AND WEAKEN OVER THE MAINLAND THROUGH THURSDAY
WHICH WILL KEEP MOSTLY CLOUDY SKY AND SHOWERS IN THE
FORECAST...MAINLY FOR THE BRISTOL BAY AREA. TEMPERATURES WILL
CONTINUE TO RUN WELL ABOVE NORMAL WHILE WINDS WILL REMAIN
GENERALLY LIGHT.

&&

.SHORT TERM FORECAST BERING SEA/ALEUTIANS (DAYS 1 AND 2)...
THE BEST FORCING AND WHAT IS LEFT OF A "FRONT" WILL BE OVER THE
UNALASKA ISLAND AREA WHERE STEADY RAIN WILL PERSIST TODAY. RAIN
WILL END TODAY AND BECOME MORE SPOTTY AS THE SYSTEM MOVES TOWARD
THE EAST. THE NEXT FRONT IS MOVING INTO THE WESTERN ALEUTIANS THIS
MORNING. THE GALE FORCE FRONT WILL BE MOSTLY RAIN THOUGH IT COULD
START AS SNOW ON THE LEADING EDGE. THE FRONT WILL SLOWLY MOVE TO
THE EASTERN ALEUTIANS ON WEDNESDAY WHILE WEAKENING. THE SYSTEM AS
A WHOLE DECAYS OVER THE BERING THROUGH THURSDAY.

&&

.LONG TERM FORECAST (DAYS 3 THROUGH 7)...
A BROAD AREA OF LOW PRESSURE WILL REMAIN OVER THE BERING THROUGH
MUCH OF NEXT WEEK. MULTIPLE LOWS WILL MOVE THROUGH THE BROAD AREA
PRIMARILY TRACKING WEST TO EAST ALONG THE ALEUTIANS AND INTO THE
GULF. THIS WILL KEEP MOST OF THE PRECIPITATION ALONG THE ALEUTIANS
AND COAST LINES. HOWEVER...AS THE FRONTS ASSOCIATED WITH THESE
LOWS MOVE INLAND WINDS WILL PICK UP AND PRECIPITATION WILL PUSH
FURTHER INLAND. AT THIS TIME GUIDANCE IS HAVING DIFFICULTY WITH
THE TIMING OF THESE SYSTEMS SO ENSEMBLE MEANS WERE USED.

&&

.AFC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
PUBLIC...NONE.
MARINE...GALE 175 176 177 178 411

&&

SYNOPSIS AND MODEL DISCUSSION...RLF
SOUTHCENTRAL ALASKA...BC
SOUTHWEST ALASKA/BERING SEA/ALEUTIANS...ML
LONG TERM...DK