Gale Warning 273, NWS Anchorage, AK

839 
FZAK52 PAFC 160213 AAA
CWFALU

COASTAL WATERS FORECAST...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ANCHORAGE AK
613 PM AKDT TUE MAR 15 2016

UPDATED ZONES 170 171 172

COASTAL WATERS FORECAST FOR SOUTHWEST ALASKA+BRISTOL BAY+THE
ALASKA PENINSULA WATERS AND THE ALEUTIAN ISLANDS UP TO 100 NM OUT.

WIND FORECASTS REFLECT THE PREDOMINANT SPEED AND DIRECTION
EXPECTED. SEA FORECASTS REPRESENT AN AVERAGE OF THE HIGHEST
ONE-THIRD OF THE COMBINED WIND WAVE AND SWELL HEIGHT.

PKZ199-161515-
613 PM AKDT TUE MAR 15 2016
.SYNOPSIS FOR SOUTHWEST ALASKA+BRISTOL BAY+THE ALASKA
PENINSULA WATERS AND THE ALEUTIAN ISLANDS...
HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE BERING SEA AND ALEUTIAN ISLANDS YIELDS TO A
952 MB LOW 750 NM WEST OF ATTU TONIGHT. THIS LOW THEN MOVES TO
220 NM WEST OF ATTU AS A 972 MB LOW WED AFTERNOON BEFORE SHIFTING
TO 510 NM NORTHWEST OF ATTU AT 987 MB BY THU AFTERNOON. THE
ASSOCIATED FRONT MOVES OVER THE ALEUTIANS THROUGH THU AFTERNOON.

$$

PKZ150-161515-
SOUTH OF THE AK PENINSULA SITKINAK TO CASTLE CAPE-
613 PM AKDT TUE MAR 15 2016

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY WEDNESDAY NIGHT...

.TONIGHT...W WIND 20 KT. SEAS 6 FT. 
.WED...NW WIND 15 KT. SEAS 6 FT. 
.WED NIGHT...NE WIND 25 KT. SEAS 7 FT. SNOW AND RAIN. 
.THU...NE WIND 40 KT. SEAS 14 FT. 
.THU NIGHT...NE WIND 35 KT. SEAS 14 FT. 
.FRI...NE WIND 30 KT. SEAS 15 FT. 
.SAT...NE WIND 25 KT. SEAS 12 FT. 
.SUN...NE WIND 20 KT. SEAS 8 FT.

$$

PKZ155-161515-
SOUTH OF THE AK PENINSULA CASTLE CAPE TO CAPE SARICHEF-
613 PM AKDT TUE MAR 15 2016

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY WEDNESDAY NIGHT...

.TONIGHT...NW WIND 15 KT. SEAS 6 FT. 
.WED...N WIND 15 KT. SEAS 5 FT. 
.WED NIGHT...NE WIND 15 KT INCREASING TO 25 KT AFTER MIDNIGHT.
SEAS 7 FT. 
.THU...NE WIND 40 KT. SEAS 14 FT. 
.THU NIGHT...NE WIND 35 KT. SEAS 15 FT. 
.FRI...NE WIND 30 KT. SEAS 15 FT. 
.SAT THROUGH SUN...N WIND 25 KT. SEAS 11 FT.

$$

PKZ160-161515-
BRISTOL BAY-
613 PM AKDT TUE MAR 15 2016

...HEAVY FREEZING SPRAY WARNING TONIGHT AND WEDNESDAY NIGHT...
...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY WEDNESDAY NIGHT...

.TONIGHT...NE WIND INCREASING TO 20 KT. SEAS BUILDING TO 4 FT.
HEAVY FREEZING SPRAY. 
.WED...NE WIND 15 KT. SEAS 3 FT. FREEZING SPRAY. 
.WED NIGHT...NE WIND 15 KT INCREASING TO 25 KT AFTER MIDNIGHT.
SEAS 5 FT. HEAVY FREEZING SPRAY. 
.THU THROUGH FRI...NE WIND 30 KT. SEAS 6 FT. 
.SAT THROUGH SUN...N WIND 25 KT. SEAS 6 FT.

$$

PKZ165-161515-
PORT HEIDEN TO CAPE SARICHEF-
613 PM AKDT TUE MAR 15 2016

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY WEDNESDAY NIGHT...

.TONIGHT...N WIND INCREASING TO 20 KT. SEAS BUILDING TO 6 FT.
FREEZING SPRAY. 
.WED...NE WIND 20 KT. SEAS 6 FT.  
.WED NIGHT...NE WIND 15 KT INCREASING TO 25 KT AFTER MIDNIGHT.
SEAS 6 FT. FREEZING SPRAY. 
.THU AND THU NIGHT...NE WIND 30 KT. SEAS 9 FT. 
.FRI THROUGH SAT...NE WIND 25 KT. SEAS 9 FT. 
.SUN...N WIND 30 KT. SEAS 8 FT.

$$

PKZ170-161515-
CAPE SARICHEF TO NIKOLSKI BERING SIDE-
613 PM AKDT TUE MAR 15 2016

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY TONIGHT...

.TONIGHT...N WIND 25 KT DIMINISHING TO 15 KT TOWARD MORNING. 
GUSTS TO 35 KT THROUGH EARLY EVENING. SEAS 10 FT. 
.WED...NE WIND 15 KT. SEAS 6 FT. 
.WED NIGHT...E WIND 20 KT. SEAS 5 FT. 
.THU...NE WIND 25 KT. SEAS 6 FT. 
.THU NIGHT...NE WIND 25 KT. SEAS 10 FT. 
.FRI...NE WIND 20 KT. SEAS 10 FT. 
.SAT...NE WIND 25 KT. SEAS 8 FT. 
.SUN...N WIND 30 KT. SEAS 8 FT.

$$

PKZ171-161515-
UNALASKA BAY-
613 PM AKDT TUE MAR 15 2016

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY TONIGHT...

.TONIGHT...N WIND 25 KT DIMINISHING TO NE 15 KT AFTER MIDNIGHT.
GUSTS TO 35 KT THROUGH EARLY EVENING. SEAS 8 FT SUBSIDING TO 5
FT AFTER MIDNIGHT. SNOW SHOWERS.
.WED...NE WIND 10 KT. SEAS 3 FT. 
.WED NIGHT...VARIABLE WIND LESS THAN 10 KT BECOMING E 10 KT AFTER
MIDNIGHT. SEAS 2 FT. 
.THU AND THU NIGHT...NE WIND 20 KT. SEAS 6 FT. 
.FRI THROUGH SAT...N WIND 15 KT. SEAS 5 FT. 
.SUN...N WIND 20 KT. SEAS 6 FT.

$$

PKZ172-161515-
CAPE SARICHEF TO NIKOLSKI PACIFIC SIDE-
613 PM AKDT TUE MAR 15 2016

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY TONIGHT...

.TONIGHT...N WIND 25 KT. GUSTS TO 35 KT DURING THE EVENING. 
SEAS 6 FT.
.WED...NE WIND 15 KT. SEAS 4 FT. 
.WED NIGHT...E WIND 15 KT. SEAS 3 FT. 
.THU...NE WIND 25 KT. SEAS 8 FT. 
.THU NIGHT...N WIND 25 KT. SEAS 14 FT. 
.FRI THROUGH SAT...N WIND 20 KT. SEAS 14 FT. 
.SUN...N WIND 30 KT. SEAS 10 FT.

$$

PKZ173-161515-
NIKOLSKI TO SEGUAM ISLAND BERING SIDE-
613 PM AKDT TUE MAR 15 2016

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY TONIGHT...

.TONIGHT...N WIND 25 KT DIMINISHING TO 10 KT AFTER MIDNIGHT. 
SEAS 11 FT. 
.WED...SE WIND 10 KT INCREASING TO 20 KT IN THE AFTERNOON.  SEAS
7 FT. 
.WED NIGHT AND THU...SE WIND 20 KT. SEAS 7 FT. 
.THU NIGHT...E WIND 15 KT. SEAS 8 FT. 
.FRI...E WIND 20 KT. SEAS 8 FT. 
.SAT...N WIND 25 KT. SEAS 9 FT. 
.SUN...N WIND 30 KT. SEAS 9 FT.

$$

PKZ174-161515-
NIKOLSKI TO SEGUAM ISLAND PACIFIC SIDE-
613 PM AKDT TUE MAR 15 2016

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY TONIGHT AND WEDNESDAY NIGHT...

.TONIGHT...N WIND 30 KT DIMINISHING TO 20 KT AFTER MIDNIGHT. 
SEAS 12 FT. 
.WED...VARIABLE WIND 10 KT BECOMING SE 20 KT IN THE AFTERNOON.
SEAS 6 FT. 
.WED NIGHT...SE WIND 25 KT. SEAS 7 FT. 
.THU...SE WIND 20 KT. SEAS 12 FT. 
.THU NIGHT...N WIND 15 KT. SEAS 16 FT. 
.FRI...N WIND 15 KT. SEAS 14 FT. 
.SAT...N WIND 25 KT. SEAS 11 FT. 
.SUN...N WIND 30 KT. SEAS 10 FT.

$$

PKZ175-161515-
SEGUAM ISLAND TO ADAK BERING SIDE-
613 PM AKDT TUE MAR 15 2016

...GALE WARNING WEDNESDAY AND WEDNESDAY NIGHT...

.TONIGHT...N WIND 20 KT BECOMING SE 15 KT AFTER MIDNIGHT.  SEAS
8 FT. 
.WED...SE WIND 25 KT INCREASING TO 40 KT IN THE AFTERNOON.  SEAS
9 FT. 
.WED NIGHT...SE WIND 35 KT. SEAS 10 FT. SNOW AND RAIN. 
.THU AND THU NIGHT...SE WIND 20 KT. SEAS 9 FT. 
.FRI...E WIND 25 KT. SEAS 7 FT. 
.SAT...N WIND 20 KT. SEAS 8 FT. 
.SUN...N WIND 25 KT. SEAS 9 FT.

$$

PKZ176-161515-
SEGUAM ISLAND TO ADAK PACIFIC SIDE-
613 PM AKDT TUE MAR 15 2016

...GALE WARNING WEDNESDAY AND WEDNESDAY NIGHT...

.TONIGHT...N WIND 25 KT BECOMING E 15 KT AFTER MIDNIGHT.  SEAS
8 FT. 
.WED...SE WIND 25 KT INCREASING TO 40 KT IN THE AFTERNOON.  SEAS
5 FT BUILDING TO 11 FT IN THE AFTERNOON. 
.WED NIGHT...SE WIND 35 KT. SEAS 16 FT. SNOW AND RAIN. 
.THU...SW WIND 20 KT. SEAS 19 FT. 
.THU NIGHT...S WIND 20 KT. SEAS 18 FT. 
.FRI...W WIND 20 KT. SEAS 13 FT. 
.SAT THROUGH SUN...N WIND 25 KT. SEAS 10 FT.

$$

PKZ177-161515-
ADAK TO KISKA-
613 PM AKDT TUE MAR 15 2016

...STORM WARNING WEDNESDAY...

.TONIGHT...SE WIND 15 KT INCREASING TO 40 KT AFTER MIDNIGHT. 
SEAS 9 FT. 
.WED...SE WIND 50 KT DIMINISHING TO 40 KT IN THE LATE AFTERNOON.
SEAS 12 FT BUILDING TO 20 FT IN THE AFTERNOON. SNOW AND RAIN. 
.WED NIGHT...SE WIND 35 KT BECOMING SW 25 KT DURING THE EVENING.
SEAS 18 FT. RAIN AND SNOW. 
.THU...SW WIND 20 KT. SEAS 24 FT. 
.THU NIGHT...S WIND 20 KT. SEAS 18 FT. 
.FRI...W WIND 20 KT. SEAS 12 FT. 
.SAT...NW WIND 20 KT. SEAS 11 FT. 
.SUN...N WIND 20 KT. SEAS 7 FT.

$$

PKZ178-161515-
KISKA TO ATTU-
613 PM AKDT TUE MAR 15 2016

...STORM WARNING THROUGH WEDNESDAY...

.TONIGHT...SE WIND 35 KT INCREASING TO 55 KT AFTER MIDNIGHT.
BERING SIDE...SEAS 10 FT BUILDING TO 18 FT. PACIFIC SIDE...SEAS
15 FT BUILDING TO 26 FT. SNOW AND RAIN. 
.WED...SE WIND 50 KT BECOMING S 35 KT BY AFTERNOON. SEAS 25 FT.
RAIN AND SNOW. 
.WED NIGHT...S WIND 40 KT. SEAS 27 FT BERING SIDE...33 FT 
PACIFIC SIDE. RAIN AND SNOW SHOWERS. 
.THU...SW WIND 30 KT. SEAS 28 FT. 
.THU NIGHT...SW WIND 20 KT. SEAS 16 FT. 
.FRI...W WIND 20 KT. SEAS 12 FT. 
.SAT...NW WIND 20 KT. SEAS 10 FT. 
.SUN...E WIND 20 KT. SEAS 8 FT.

$$

PKZ179-161515-
PRIBILOF ISLANDS NEAR SHORE WATERS-
613 PM AKDT TUE MAR 15 2016

...HEAVY FREEZING SPRAY WARNING TONIGHT...

.TONIGHT...N WIND 20 KT. SEAS 7 FT. HEAVY FREEZING SPRAY. 
.WED...NE WIND 15 KT. SEAS 5 FT. FREEZING SPRAY. 
.WED NIGHT...E WIND 20 KT. SEAS 5 FT. 
.THU AND THU NIGHT...E WIND 20 KT. SEAS 8 FT. 
.FRI THROUGH SUN...N WIND 25 KT. SEAS 9 FT.

$$

PKZ180-161515-
KUSKOKWIM DELTA AND ETOLIN STRAIT-
613 PM AKDT TUE MAR 15 2016

...HEAVY FREEZING SPRAY WARNING THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT...
...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY TONIGHT...

.TONIGHT...N WIND 30 KT. SEAS IN ICE FREE WATERS 6 FT. HEAVY
FREEZING SPRAY. 
.WED AND WED NIGHT...N WIND 20 KT. SEAS IN ICE FREE WATERS 4 FT.
HEAVY FREEZING SPRAY. 
.THU AND THU NIGHT...NE WIND 25 KT. SEAS IN ICE FREE WATERS 6 FT.
.FRI...NE WIND 25 KT. SEAS IN ICE FREE WATERS 6 FT. 
.SAT...NE WIND 30 KT. SEAS IN ICE FREE WATERS 6 FT. 
.SUN...N WIND 25 KT. SEAS IN ICE FREE WATERS 6 FT.

$$

PKZ181-161515-
NORTH AND WEST OF NUNIVAK ISLAND-
613 PM AKDT TUE MAR 15 2016

.TONIGHT...N WIND 20 KT.  
.WED...N WIND 15 KT. 
.WED NIGHT THROUGH THU NIGHT...NE WIND 20 KT. 
.FRI THROUGH SUN...N WIND 25 KT.

$$

PKZ185-161515-
SAINT MATTHEW ISLAND WATERS-
613 PM AKDT TUE MAR 15 2016

...GALE WARNING WEDNESDAY NIGHT...
...HEAVY FREEZING SPRAY WARNING THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT...

.TONIGHT...N WIND 20 KT. SEAS IN ICE FREE WATERS 3 FT.  HEAVY
FREEZING SPRAY. 
.WED...NE WIND 15 KT E OF SAINT MATTHEW ISLAND...E 30 KT  W OF
SAINT MATTHEW ISLAND. SEAS IN ICE FREE WATERS 5 FT.  HEAVY
FREEZING SPRAY. 
.WED NIGHT...E WIND 20 KT E OF SAINT MATTHEW ISLAND...E 35 KT  W
OF SAINT MATTHEW ISLAND. SEAS IN ICE FREE WATERS 10 FT.  HEAVY
FREEZING SPRAY. 
.THU AND THU NIGHT...E WIND 30 KT. SEAS IN ICE FREE WATERS 15 FT.
.FRI THROUGH SAT...NE WIND 30 KT. SEAS IN ICE FREE WATERS 11 FT. 
.SUN...N WIND 25 KT. SEAS IN ICE FREE WATERS 7 FT.

$$

412 
FZAK52 PAFC 161138
CWFALU

COASTAL WATERS FORECAST
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ANCHORAGE ALASKA
338 AM AKDT WED MAR 16 2016

COASTAL WATERS FORECAST FOR SOUTHWEST ALASKA+BRISTOL BAY+THE
ALASKA PENINSULA WATERS AND THE ALEUTIAN ISLANDS UP TO 100 NM OUT.

WIND FORECASTS REFLECT THE PREDOMINANT SPEED AND DIRECTION
EXPECTED. SEA FORECASTS REPRESENT AN AVERAGE OF THE HIGHEST
ONE-THIRD OF THE COMBINED WIND WAVE AND SWELL HEIGHT.

PKZ199-170015-
338 AM AKDT WED MAR 16 2016
.SYNOPSIS FOR SOUTHWEST ALASKA+BRISTOL BAY+THE ALASKA
PENINSULA WATERS AND THE ALEUTIAN ISLANDS...
A 958 MB LOW 500 NM SOUTHWEST OF SHEMYA MOVES TO 200 NM NORTHWEST
OF SHEMYA AT 980 MB TONIGHT THEN EXITS TO THE NORTHWEST THU
NIGHT. AN ASSOCIATED STRONG WEATHER FRONT OVER THE WESTERN
ALEUTIANS WEAKENS TONIGHT OVER THE CENTRAL BERING SEA. A 1007 MB
LOW FORMS 210 NM SOUTHWEST OF ADAK THU NIGHT. A WEATHER FRONT
ASSOCIATED WITH A NORTH PACIFIC LOW MOVES OVER THE ALASKA
PENINSULA THU NIGHT.

$$

PKZ150-170015-
SOUTH OF THE AK PENINSULA SITKINAK TO CASTLE CAPE-
338 AM AKDT WED MAR 16 2016

...GALE WARNING THURSDAY...

.TODAY...W WIND 15 KT BECOMING N 10 KT IN THE AFTERNOON.
SEAS 5 FT.
.TONIGHT...NE WIND 15 KT INCREASING TO 25 KT AFTER MIDNIGHT.
SEAS 5 FT.
.THU...NE WIND 30 KT IN THE MORNING INCREASING TO 40 KT.
SEAS 15 FT. RAIN AND SNOW.
.THU NIGHT...NE WIND 35 KT. SEAS 15 FT.
.FRI...NE WIND 35 KT. SEAS 15 FT.
.SAT...NE WIND 25 KT. SEAS 12 FT.
.SUN...NE WIND 20 KT. SEAS 8 FT.

$$

PKZ155-170015-
SOUTH OF THE AK PENINSULA CASTLE CAPE TO CAPE SARICHEF-
338 AM AKDT WED MAR 16 2016

...GALE WARNING THURSDAY...

.TODAY...VARIABLE WIND 10 KT. SEAS 5 FT.
.TONIGHT...NE WIND 15 KT INCREASING TO 25 KT AFTER MIDNIGHT.
SEAS 6 FT.
.THU...NE WIND 30 KT INCREASING TO 40 KT IN THE AFTERNOON.
SEAS 10 FT BUILDING TO 17 FT IN THE AFTERNOON. RAIN.
.THU NIGHT...NE WIND 40 KT. SEAS 17 FT.
.FRI...NE WIND 35 KT. SEAS 16 FT.
.SAT THROUGH SUN...N WIND 25 KT. SEAS 11 FT.

$$

PKZ160-170015-
BRISTOL BAY-
338 AM AKDT WED MAR 16 2016

...HEAVY FREEZING SPRAY WARNING THROUGH THURSDAY...
...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY TONIGHT AND THURSDAY...

.TODAY...NE WIND 15 KT. SEAS 3 FT. HEAVY FREEZING SPRAY.
.TONIGHT...NE WIND 15 KT INCREASING TO 25 KT AFTER MIDNIGHT.
SEAS 4 FT. HEAVY FREEZING SPRAY.
.THU...NE WIND 30 KT. SEAS 6 FT. HEAVY FREEZING SPRAY.
.THU NIGHT...NE WIND 30 KT. SEAS 7 FT.
.FRI...NE WIND 30 KT. SEAS 7 FT.
.SAT THROUGH SUN...N WIND 25 KT. SEAS 6 FT.

$$

PKZ165-170015-
PORT HEIDEN TO CAPE SARICHEF-
338 AM AKDT WED MAR 16 2016

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY TONIGHT AND THURSDAY...

.TODAY...N WIND 15 KT BECOMING E IN THE AFTERNOON. SEAS 6 FT.
.TONIGHT...E WIND 15 KT INCREASING TO 25 KT AFTER MIDNIGHT.
SEAS 5 FT. FREEZING SPRAY FROM PORT MOLLER E.
.THU...NE WIND 30 KT. SEAS 9 FT. FREEZING SPRAY FROM PORT MOLLER E.
.THU NIGHT...NE WIND 30 KT. SEAS 11 FT.
.FRI...NE WIND 30 KT. SEAS 10 FT.
.SAT...NE WIND 25 KT. SEAS 8 FT.
.SUN...N WIND 30 KT. SEAS 8 FT.

$$

PKZ170-170015-
CAPE SARICHEF TO NIKOLSKI BERING SIDE-
338 AM AKDT WED MAR 16 2016

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY THURSDAY...

.TODAY...NE WIND 15 KT. SEAS 7 FT.
.TONIGHT...E WIND 20 KT. SEAS 5 FT.
.THU...NE WIND 25 KT. SEAS 7 FT.
.THU NIGHT...NE WIND 30 KT. SEAS 11 FT.
.FRI THROUGH SAT...NE WIND 25 KT. SEAS 10 FT.
.SUN...N WIND 30 KT. SEAS 8 FT.

$$

PKZ171-170015-
UNALASKA BAY-
338 AM AKDT WED MAR 16 2016

.TODAY...NE WIND 15 KT DIMINISHING TO 10 KT IN THE AFTERNOON.
GUSTS TO 25 KT IN THE MORNING. SEAS 5 FT SUBSIDING TO 3 FT IN
THE AFTERNOON.
.TONIGHT...E WIND 10 KT INCREASING TO 15 KT AFTER MIDNIGHT.
SEAS 2 FT.
.THU...NE WIND 10 KT IN THE MORNING INCREASING TO 20 KT.
SEAS 3 FT BUILDING TO 5 FT IN THE AFTERNOON.
.THU NIGHT...NE WIND 20 KT. SEAS 7 FT.
.FRI THROUGH SAT...N WIND 15 KT. SEAS 5 FT.
.SUN...N WIND 20 KT. SEAS 6 FT.

$$

PKZ172-170015-
CAPE SARICHEF TO NIKOLSKI PACIFIC SIDE-
338 AM AKDT WED MAR 16 2016

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY THURSDAY...

.TODAY...NE WIND 20 KT. SEAS 4 FT.
.TONIGHT...E WIND 15 KT. SEAS 3 FT.
.THU...NE WIND 15 KT INCREASING TO 25 KT IN THE AFTERNOON.
SEAS 4 FT BUILDING TO 8 FT IN THE AFTERNOON.
.THU NIGHT...N WIND 30 KT. SEAS 16 FT.
.FRI...N WIND 25 KT. SEAS 16 FT.
.SAT...N WIND 20 KT. SEAS 12 FT.
.SUN...N WIND 30 KT. SEAS 10 FT.

$$

PKZ173-170015-
NIKOLSKI TO SEGUAM ISLAND BERING SIDE-
338 AM AKDT WED MAR 16 2016

.TODAY...SE WIND 10 KT INCREASING TO 20 KT IN THE AFTERNOON.
SEAS 6 FT.
.TONIGHT...SE WIND 20 KT. SEAS 5 FT.
.THU...SE WIND 20 KT. SEAS 7 FT.
.THU NIGHT...NE WIND 15 KT. SEAS 8 FT.
.FRI...E WIND 20 KT. SEAS 8 FT.
.SAT...N WIND 25 KT. SEAS 9 FT.
.SUN...N WIND 30 KT. SEAS 9 FT.

$$

PKZ174-170015-
NIKOLSKI TO SEGUAM ISLAND PACIFIC SIDE-
338 AM AKDT WED MAR 16 2016

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY THURSDAY...

.TODAY...VARIABLE WIND 10 KT BECOMING SE 20 KT IN THE AFTERNOON.
SEAS 6 FT.
.TONIGHT...SE WIND 20 KT. SEAS 7 FT.
.THU...SE WIND 20 KT. SEAS 11 FT.
.THU NIGHT...NE WIND 20 KT. SEAS 16 FT.
.FRI...W WIND 20 KT. SEAS 15 FT.
.SAT...N WIND 25 KT. SEAS 11 FT.
.SUN...N WIND 30 KT. SEAS 10 FT.

$$

PKZ175-170015-
SEGUAM ISLAND TO ADAK BERING SIDE-
338 AM AKDT WED MAR 16 2016

...GALE WARNING THROUGH TONIGHT...

.TODAY...SE WIND 25 KT INCREASING TO 35 KT IN THE AFTERNOON.
SEAS 9 FT.
.TONIGHT...SE WIND 35 KT DIMINISHING TO 25 KT AFTER MIDNIGHT.
SEAS 10 FT. SNOW AND RAIN.
.THU...S WIND 25 KT BECOMING VARIABLE 15 KT IN THE AFTERNOON.
SEAS 9 FT. RAIN AND SNOW.
.THU NIGHT...SE WIND 15 KT. SEAS 9 FT.
.FRI...E WIND 30 KT. SEAS 8 FT.
.SAT...N WIND 20 KT. SEAS 8 FT.
.SUN...N WIND 25 KT. SEAS 9 FT.

$$

PKZ176-170015-
SEGUAM ISLAND TO ADAK PACIFIC SIDE-
338 AM AKDT WED MAR 16 2016

...GALE WARNING THROUGH TONIGHT...

.TODAY...SE WIND 25 KT INCREASING TO 35 KT IN THE AFTERNOON.
SEAS 5 FT BUILDING TO 11 FT IN THE AFTERNOON.
.TONIGHT...SE WIND 35 KT DIMINISHING TO 25 KT AFTER MIDNIGHT.
SEAS 16 FT. SNOW AND RAIN.
.THU...SW WIND 20 KT. SEAS 14 FT BUILDING TO 20 FT IN THE
AFTERNOON. RAIN AND SNOW.
.THU NIGHT...S WIND 20 KT. SEAS 19 FT.
.FRI...SW WIND 40 KT. SEAS 17 FT.
.SAT THROUGH SUN...N WIND 25 KT. SEAS 10 FT.

$$

PKZ177-170015-
ADAK TO KISKA-
338 AM AKDT WED MAR 16 2016

...GALE WARNING THROUGH TONIGHT...

.TODAY...SE WIND INCREASING TO 45 KT. SEAS 19 FT. SNOW AND RAIN.
.TONIGHT...SE WIND 35 KT BECOMING SW 20 KT AFTER MIDNIGHT. SEAS
16 FT BERING SIDE...23 FT PACIFIC SIDE. RAIN AND SNOW.
.THU...SW WIND 20 KT. SEAS 16 FT BERING SIDE... 25 FT PACIFIC SIDE.
.THU NIGHT...SE WIND 25 KT. SEAS 18 FT.
.FRI...NW WIND 45 KT. SEAS 16 FT.
.SAT...NW WIND 20 KT. SEAS 11 FT.
.SUN...N WIND 20 KT. SEAS 7 FT.

$$

PKZ178-170015-
KISKA TO ATTU-
338 AM AKDT WED MAR 16 2016

...STORM WARNING TODAY...

.TODAY...SE WIND 50 KT BECOMING S 40 KT IN THE AFTERNOON.
SEAS 24 FT. RAIN AND SNOW.
.TONIGHT...S WIND 40 KT DIMINISHING TO 30 KT AFTER MIDNIGHT.
SEAS 26 FT BERING SIDE...32 FT PACIFIC SIDE. SNOW AND RAIN
SHOWERS.
.THU...SW WIND 30 KT DIMINISHING TO 20 KT IN THE AFTERNOON.
SEAS 28 FT SUBSIDING TO 22 FT IN THE AFTERNOON. SNOW SHOWERS.
.THU NIGHT...S WIND 20 KT. SEAS 17 FT.
.FRI...W WIND 20 KT. SEAS 12 FT.
.SAT...NW WIND 20 KT. SEAS 10 FT.
.SUN...E WIND 20 KT. SEAS 8 FT.

$$

PKZ179-170015-
PRIBILOF ISLANDS NEAR SHORE WATERS-
338 AM AKDT WED MAR 16 2016

.TODAY...NE WIND 15 KT. SEAS 5 FT. FREEZING SPRAY.
.TONIGHT...E WIND 20 KT. SEAS 5 FT. FREEZING SPRAY.
.THU...E WIND 20 KT. SEAS 7 FT.
.THU NIGHT...NE WIND 20 KT. SEAS 10 FT.
.FRI THROUGH SUN...N WIND 25 KT. SEAS 9 FT.

$$

PKZ180-170015-
KUSKOKWIM DELTA AND ETOLIN STRAIT-
338 AM AKDT WED MAR 16 2016

...HEAVY FREEZING SPRAY WARNING THROUGH THURSDAY...
...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY THURSDAY...

.TODAY...N WIND 20 KT. SEAS IN ICE FREE WATERS 4 FT.
HEAVY FREEZING SPRAY FROM CAPE NEWENHAM N.
.TONIGHT...NE WIND 20 KT. SEAS IN ICE FREE WATERS 3 FT.
HEAVY FREEZING SPRAY N OF CAPE NEWENHAM.
.THU...NE WIND 25 KT. SEAS IN ICE FREE WATERS 5 FT.
HEAVY FREEZING SPRAY N OF CAPE NEWENHAM.
.THU NIGHT...NE WIND 30 KT. SEAS IN ICE FREE WATERS 6 FT.
.FRI THROUGH SAT...NE WIND 30 KT. SEAS IN ICE FREE WATERS 7 FT.
.SUN...N WIND 25 KT. SEAS IN ICE FREE WATERS 6 FT.

$$

PKZ181-170015-
NORTH AND WEST OF NUNIVAK ISLAND-
338 AM AKDT WED MAR 16 2016

.TODAY...VARIABLE WIND 10 KT.
.TONIGHT...NE WIND 20 KT.
.THU...NE WIND 20 KT.
.THU NIGHT...NE WIND 25 KT.
.FRI THROUGH SUN...N WIND 25 KT.

$$

PKZ185-170015-
SAINT MATTHEW ISLAND WATERS-
338 AM AKDT WED MAR 16 2016

...HEAVY FREEZING SPRAY WARNING TODAY...
...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY THROUGH THURSDAY...

.TODAY...E WIND 15 KT E OF SAINT MATTHEW ISLAND...E 30 KT W OF
SAINT MATTHEW ISLAND. SEAS IN ICE FREE WATERS 5 FT. HEAVY
FREEZING SPRAY.
.TONIGHT...E WIND 20 KT E OF SAINT MATTHEW ISLAND...E 30 KT W OF
SAINT MATTHEW ISLAND. SEAS IN ICE FREE WATERS 6 FT BUILDING TO 10
FT AFTER MIDNIGHT. FREEZING SPRAY.
.THU...E WIND 20 KT E OF SAINT MATTHEW ISLAND...E 30 KT W OF SAINT
MATTHEW ISLAND. SEAS IN ICE FREE WATERS 14 FT. FREEZING SPRAY.
.THU NIGHT...E WIND 30 KT. SEAS IN ICE FREE WATERS 14 FT.
.FRI...NE WIND 25 KT. SEAS IN ICE FREE WATERS 12 FT.
.SAT...NE WIND 30 KT. SEAS IN ICE FREE WATERS 9 FT.
.SUN...N WIND 25 KT. SEAS IN ICE FREE WATERS 7 FT.

$$

SOUTHCENTRAL AND SOUTHWEST ALASKA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ANCHORAGE AK
517 AM AKDT TUE MAR 15 2016

.ANALYSIS AND UPPER LEVELS...
THE FAIRLY QUITE PATTERN THAT MUCH OF THE STATE HAS BEEN ENJOYING
IS STARTING TO CHANGE. EVIDENCE OF THIS CAN BE SEEN ON SATELLITE
THIS MORNING. A FAIRLY IMPRESSIVE UPPER LEVEL LOW IS DROPPING FROM
THE BROOKS RANGE AND STARTING TO IMPINGE ON THE ALASKA RANGE. OVER
THE NORTHERN GULF AND NEAR THE COAST...MOISTURE IS STARTING TO
CONSOLIDATE AND INSTABILITY CAN BE SEEN WITH THE SHOWERS SAMPLED
BY THE MIDDLETON RADAR. MEANWHILE...OVER THE EASTERN ALEUTIANS
AND THE ALASKA PENINSULA...SEVERAL WEAK LOWS CONTINUE TO FILL
ALONG A DECAYING THERMAL BOUNDARY. FURTHER WEST...ONE OF THE
STRONGER LOWS THAT WE HAVE SEEN IN THE PAST SEVERAL WEEKS IS
APPROACHING THE WESTERN ALEUTIANS. MODELS PROG THE CURRENT CENTRAL
PRESSURE IN THE UPPER 960MB-RANGE. WITH THE AID OF A 150KT JET AT
300MB...THE LOW WILL CONTINUE TO DEEPEN INTO THE 950S. A SNAPSHOT
OF THE JET SHOWS IT DRIVING FROM THE SOUTH AND INTO THE WESTERN
BERING...IT THEN TURNS QUICKLY BACK TO A NORTHERLY DIRECTION
DIVING BACK INTO THE NORTH PACIFIC. FROM THERE IT RESUMES THE
FAMILIAR ZONAL POSITION SOUTH OF THE GULF OF AK THAT IT HAS
OCCUPIED FOR MUCH OF THIS WINTER.

&&

.MODEL DISCUSSION...
THE POTENTIAL FOR SNOW ACROSS SOUTH CENTRAL TONIGHT CONTINUES TO
BE THE MOST NOTABLE MODEL DISCREPANCY. WE HAVE BEEN WATCHING THIS
EVENT TAKE SHAPE OVER THE PAST FEW DAYS...BUT EVEN ONLY 24 HOURS
OUT...FINER-SCALE FEATURES ARE YET TO BE RESOLVED. ALL OF THE
MODELS SHOW THE SYNOPTIC-SCALE TROUGH DROPPING ACROSS THE ALASKA
RANGE AND INTO THE SUSITNA VALLEY. THEY ALL ALSO DEPICT A CLOSED
LOW DEVELOPING SOMEWHERE OVER THE NORTHERN COOK INLET. BUT WHERE
THIS LOW SETS UP WILL BE CRITICAL TO WHERE THE BEST CONVERGENCE
WILL BE. THE OTHER ELEMENT AT PLAY IN THIS WILL BE INSTABILITY.
MODELS ALL SHOW A RELATIVELY MOIST AND SOMEWHAT UNSTABLE AIRMASS
CREEPING OVER THE CHUGACH MOUNTAINS AND RIDING UP AND OVER THE
COLDER AIR DIGGING IN FROM THE NORTHWEST. SO WHILE IT IS LIKELY
THERE WILL BE A BANDED ELEMENT TO THE PRECIPITATION TONIGHT INTO
EARLY WED...IT REMAINS TO BE SEEN EXACTLY WHERE THE HEAVIEST BANDS
WILL SET UP. THAT SAID...THE HIGHER RESOLUTION MODELS WERE RELIED
UPON IN MAKING THIS FORECAST.

OUT WEST...THE NAM WAS UTILIZED FOR THE FIRST 18 HOURS OF THE
FORECAST. AFTER THAT...A BLEND OF THE ECMWF AND THE GFS WERE USED
TO HANDLE THE STORM-FORCE FRONT ENCROACHING UPON THE WESTERN
BERING.

&&

.SHORT TERM FORECAST SOUTHCENTRAL ALASKA (DAYS 1 AND 2)...
THE PRIMARY FORECAST CHALLENGE THROUGH WED WILL BE THE INTENSITY
AND PLACEMENT OF ACCUMULATING SNOW FROM THE ANCHORAGE BOWL TO THE
MATANUSKA AND SUSITNA VALLEYS. THE MAIN FORCING IS COMING FROM A
UPPER LOW DIGGING SOUTH INTO WESTERN ALASKA. AS THIS UPPER CENTER
DOES SO IT WILL SET UP BROAD SOUTHERLY FLOW ACROSS SOUTHCENTRAL.
IT APPEARS AT THIS TIME THAT THE MAIN FOCUS OF SNOW WILL BE OVER
THE SUSITNA VALLEY AND ALONG THE TALKEETNA MOUNTAINS PRIMARY DUE
TO WEAK ISENTROPIC LIFT AND OROGRAPHIC ENHANCEMENT. MODEL QPF
(PRECIPITATION) GUIDANCE SEEMS A LITTLE LOW...BUT FEEL A MORE
AGGRESSIVE SNOW FORECAST IS WARRANTED THIS ISSUANCE...THOUGH WILL
KEEP SNOW TOTALS BELOW ADVISORY LEVELS FOR THIS PACKAGE ISSUANCE.
MODEL GUIDANCE DIFFERS CONSIDERABLY WITH THE RELATIVE PLACEMENT OF
SNOW ACROSS THE ANCHORAGE BOWL AND MATANUSKA VALLEY TONIGHT AND
WED. THAT SAID...WILL GO A LITTLE CONSERVATIVE FOR SNOW AMOUNTS
DUE TO MODEL UNCERTAINTY...BUT WILL INCREASE SNOW PROBABILITIES AS
A 500 MB JET MOVES OVER THE REGION AND PROVIDES FAVORABLE LIFT
LATE TONIGHT AND WED. UPPER SUPPORT WEAKENS WED NIGHT...SO SHOULD
SEE DECREASING CHANCES OF ACCUMULATING SNOW.

.SHORT TERM FORECAST SOUTHWEST ALASKA (DAYS 1 AND 2)...
THE SOUTHWEST MAINLAND LOOKS TO REMAIN FAIRLY DRY THROUGH THE
NEXT SEVERAL DAYS WITH THE EXCEPTION OF SOME SCATTERED SNOW
SHOWERS ALONG AND NEAR THE AHKLUN MOUNTAINS. SOME WEAK LIFT AHEAD
OF AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH WILL INTERACT WITH SOME WEAK INSTABILITY
AND MID-LEVEL MOISTURE WHICH WILL HELP PRODUCE THE AFOREMENTIONED
SHOWERS. SOME OF THESE SHOWERS COULD DEVELOP AWAY FROM THE
MOUNTAINS WITH SOME FAVORABLE LAPSE RATES ASSOCIATED WITH A MUCH
COLDER AIR MASS DROPPING DOWN FROM THE ARCTIC. SPEAKING OF THIS
COLDER AIR MASS...AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH WILL CONTINUE TO DIG SOUTH
ACROSS SOUTHWEST ALASKA AND WILL BE SLOW TO EXIT THE REGION.
COLDER AND DRIER AIR WILL BE ADVECTED SOUTH RESULTING IN CLEARING
SKIES AS WELL AS MUCH COLDER TEMPERATURES. FOR THE FIRST TIME IN
QUITE A WHILE...MOST (IF NOT ALL) OF SOUTHWEST ALASKA WILL SEE
BOTH HIGH AND LOW TEMPERATURES BELOW NORMAL. THESE DRY AND COOL
CONDITIONS LOOK TO PERSIST THROUGH MUCH OF THE WEEK.

&&

.SHORT TERM FORECAST BERING SEA/ALEUTIANS (DAYS 1 AND 2)...
A BROAD UPPER LEVEL TROUGH CONTINUES TO BRING SNOW SHOWERS TO THE
PRIBILOF ISLANDS AND EASTERN ALEUTIANS THIS MORNING. THIS TROUGH
WILL AMPLIFY THROUGHOUT THE DAY AS HIGH PRESSURE BEGINS TO QUICKLY
BUILD OVER THE WESTERN BERING SEA. AS THE TROUGH AMPLIFIES...THE
BULK OF THE UPPER LEVEL ENERGY WILL PUSH SOUTH INTO THE NORTH
PACIFIC WHICH WILL ALLOW SNOW SHOWERS TO TAPER OFF FROM NORTH TO
SOUTH DURING THE DAY TODAY. A STORM FORCE FRONT WILL ENTER THE
WESTERN BERING SEA THIS AFTERNOON THAT WILL BE ASSOCIATED WITH A
STRENGTHENING LOW MOVING NEAR KAMCHATKA. THE FRONT LOOKS TO
QUICKLY ELONGATE ON WEDNESDAY AS IT CLASHES WITH THE BUILDING
RIDGE OVER THE CENTRAL BERING SEA. THIS WILL KEEP THE STRONGEST
WINDS CONFINED TO THE WESTERN BERING SEA AND AS THE FRONT MOVES
AWAY FROM THE PARENT LOW...A DECREASE IN WIND INTENSITY WILL ALSO
BE OBSERVED.

&&

.LONG TERM FORECAST (DAYS 3 THROUGH 7)...
AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH WILL CONTINUE TO SWING THROUGH THE
SOUTHCENTRAL ALASKA REGION BEFORE LIFTING NORTHWARD TOWARDS THE
BROOKS RANGE BY FRIDAY. THE BULK OF THE REMAINING PRECIPITATION
WILL BE CONFINED TO THE EASTERN PRINCE WILLIAM SOUND AND THE
COPPER RIVER BASIN AS THE WAVE MOVES THROUGH THE EASTERN GULF.
MODELS HAVE NOW STARTED TO COME INTO BETTER AGREEMENT ON HOW THE
PATTERN WILL EVOLVE TOWARDS THE WEEKEND...AS THE DEPARTING TROUGH
IS REINFORCED BY SHORTWAVE ENERGY DROPPING OUT OF THE ARCTIC AND
THEN RETROGRADES BACK OVER THE CENTRAL MAINLAND AS A DEEP CLOSED
UPPER LOW. THIS SCENARIO WOULD BRING GENERALLY COOL AND DRY
CONDITIONS TO THE SOUTHERN MAINLAND THROUGH THE WEEKEND...WITH THE
CHANCE FOR A FEW SHOWERS PERSISTING ACROSS SOUTHCENTRAL AK IN THE
PRESENCE OF DEEP CYCLONIC FLOW.

OUT WEST...THE STRONG FRONT POISED TO ENTER THE WESTERN ALEUTIANS
TUESDAY NIGHT WILL BE IMPEDED IN ITS EASTWARD PROGRESS BY AN UPPER
LEVEL HIGH AMPLITUDE RIDGING DEVELOPING OVER THE EASTERN HALF OF
BERING AS THE MAINLAND TROUGH LIFTS TO THE NORTH DURING THE MIDDLE
OF THE WEEK. THIS WILL YIELD GENERALLY BENIGN CONDITIONS ACROSS
THE BERING FOR THE END OF THE WEEK AS THE FRONT DISSIPATES...WITH
THE BEST CHANCE FOR PRECIPITATION SHIFTING TO THE ALASKA PENINSULA
AND THE EASTERN ALEUTIANS ON THE PERIPHERY OF A DEEP NORTH PACIFIC
SYSTEM WELL TO THE SOUTH.

&&

.AFC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
PUBLIC...NONE.
MARINE...STORM WARNING...178.
         GALE WARNING...173 174 175 176 177.
         HEAVY FREEZING SPRAY WARNING...160 179 180 181 185.

&&

SYNOPSIS AND MODEL DISCUSSION...MO
SOUTHCENTRAL ALASKA...BC
SOUTHWEST ALASKA/BERING SEA/ALEUTIANS...MC
LONG TERM...CB