Gale Warning 246, NWS Anchorage, AK

449 
FZAK61 PAFC 311153
OFFAER

OFFSHORE WATERS FORECAST
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ANCHORAGE AK
353 AM AKDT THU MAR 31 2016

OFFSHORE WATERS FORECAST FOR THE GULF OF ALASKA WEST OF 144W

WIND FORECASTS REFLECT THE PREDOMINANT SPEED AND DIRECTION
EXPECTED. SEA FORECASTS REPRESENT AN AVERAGE OF THE HIGHEST
ONE-THIRD OF THE COMBINED WIND WAVE AND SWELL HEIGHT.

PKZ399-010130-
353 AM AKDT THU MAR 31 2016
.SYNOPSIS FOR THE WESTERN GULF OF ALASKA...
A FRONT ENTERS THE SOUTHWESTERN GULF TONIGHT...AND MOVES ALONG THE
WEST COAST THROUGH FRI...THEN DISSIPATES FRI NIGHT.

$$

PKZ351-010130-
GULF OF ALASKA OFFSHORE NORTH OF 57N AND WEST OF 144W-
353 AM AKDT THU MAR 31 2016

.TODAY...E WIND 25 KT. SEAS 12 FT. PATCHY FOG MAINLY IN THE
MORNING.
.TONIGHT...SE WIND 25 KT. SEAS 11 FT.
.FRI...S WIND 15 TO 30 KT. SEAS 8 TO 12 FT.
.FRI NIGHT...S WIND 15 TO 25 KT. SEAS 8 TO 12 FT.
.SAT THROUGH MON...SE WIND 10 TO 25 KT. SEAS 7 TO 12 FT.

$$

PKZ352-010130-
GULF OF ALASKA OFFSHORE SOUTH OF 57N NORTH OF 55N AND WEST OF
144W-
353 AM AKDT THU MAR 31 2016

...GALE WARNING TONIGHT AND FRIDAY...

.TODAY...SE WIND 25 KT. SEAS 13 FT.
.TONIGHT...SE WIND 25 KT BECOMING S 20 TO 35 KT AFTER
MIDNIGHT...STRONGEST W OF 150W. SEAS 9 TO 13 FT.
.FRI...S WIND 20 TO 35 KT...STRONGEST IN THE MORNING W OF 150W.
SEAS 9 TO 15 FT.
.FRI NIGHT...S WIND 15 TO 25 KT. SEAS 8 TO 13 FT.
.SAT THROUGH MON...SE WIND 10 TO 25 KT. SEAS 7 TO 12 FT.

$$

684 
FZAK61 PAFC 312301
OFFAER

OFFSHORE WATERS FORECAST
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ANCHORAGE AK
301 PM AKDT THU MAR 31 2016

OFFSHORE WATERS FORECAST FOR THE GULF OF ALASKA WEST OF 144W

WIND FORECASTS REFLECT THE PREDOMINANT SPEED AND DIRECTION
EXPECTED. SEA FORECASTS REPRESENT AN AVERAGE OF THE HIGHEST
ONE-THIRD OF THE COMBINED WIND WAVE AND SWELL HEIGHT.

PKZ399-011345-
301 PM AKDT THU MAR 31 2016
.SYNOPSIS FOR THE WESTERN GULF OF ALASKA...
A FRONT ALONG THE SOUTHWESTERN GULF MOVES TO THE NORTHERN GULF
FRI MORNING AND SLOWLY PUSHES INLAND BY SAT MORNING. ANOTHER WEAK
FRONT MOVES INTO THE WESTERN GULF SAT NIGHT.

$$

PKZ351-011345-
GULF OF ALASKA OFFSHORE NORTH OF 57N AND WEST OF 144W-
301 PM AKDT THU MAR 31 2016

.TONIGHT...SE WIND 15 TO 25 KT. SEAS 11 FT.
.FRI...S WIND 15 TO 30 KT. SEAS 8 TO 12 FT.
.FRI NIGHT...S WIND 15 TO 25 KT. SEAS 8 TO 12 FT.
.SAT...S WIND 15 KT. SEAS 8 FT.
.SAT NIGHT...E WIND 10 TO 25 KT. SEAS 7 FT.
.SUN THROUGH TUE...S WIND 10 TO 25 KT. SEAS 8 TO 13 FT.

$$

PKZ352-011345-
GULF OF ALASKA OFFSHORE SOUTH OF 57N NORTH OF 55N AND WEST OF
144W-
301 PM AKDT THU MAR 31 2016

...GALE WARNING TONIGHT...

.TONIGHT...S WIND 20 TO 35 KT. SEAS 10 TO 15 FT.
.FRI...S WIND 20 TO 30 KT. SEAS 9 TO 15 FT.
.FRI NIGHT...S WIND 15 TO 25 KT. SEAS 8 TO 12 FT.
.SAT...SE WIND 10 TO 20 KT. SEAS 8 FT.
.SAT NIGHT...E WIND 15 TO 25 KT. SEAS 8 FT.
.SUN THROUGH TUE...S WIND 10 TO 25 KT. SEAS 9 TO 14 FT.

$$

983 
FZAK61 PAFC 011144
OFFAER

OFFSHORE WATERS FORECAST
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ANCHORAGE AK
344 AM AKDT FRI APR 1 2016

OFFSHORE WATERS FORECAST FOR THE GULF OF ALASKA WEST OF 144W

WIND FORECASTS REFLECT THE PREDOMINANT SPEED AND DIRECTION
EXPECTED. SEA FORECASTS REPRESENT AN AVERAGE OF THE HIGHEST
ONE-THIRD OF THE COMBINED WIND WAVE AND SWELL HEIGHT.

PKZ399-020130-
344 AM AKDT FRI APR 1 2016
.SYNOPSIS FOR THE WESTERN GULF OF ALASKA...
A FRONT MOVES SLOWLY ACROSS THE GULF OF ALASKA AND NORTH GULF
COAST THROUGH SUN MORNING.

$$

PKZ351-020130-
GULF OF ALASKA OFFSHORE NORTH OF 57N AND WEST OF 144W-
344 AM AKDT FRI APR 1 2016

.TODAY...SW WIND 15 TO 25 KT. SEAS 8 TO 12 FT.
.TONIGHT...SW WIND 10 TO 25 KT. SEAS 8 TO 12 FT.
.SAT...S WIND 15 KT. SEAS 8 FT.
.SAT NIGHT...SE WIND 15 KT. SEAS 7 FT.
.SUN THROUGH MON...SE WIND 10 TO 25 KT. SEAS 6 TO 10 FT.
.TUE...S WIND 25 KT. SEAS 9 TO 14 FT.

$$

PKZ352-020130-
GULF OF ALASKA OFFSHORE SOUTH OF 57N NORTH OF 55N AND WEST OF
144W-
344 AM AKDT FRI APR 1 2016

.TODAY...S WIND 15 TO 30 KT...STRONGEST IN THE MORNING W OF 150W.
SEAS 9 TO 15 FT.
.TONIGHT...S WIND 10 TO 20 KT. SEAS 8 TO 12 FT.
.SAT...SE WIND 10 TO 25 KT. SEAS 8 FT.
.SAT NIGHT...E WIND 20 KT. SEAS 7 FT.
.SUN THROUGH TUE...S WIND 10 TO 25 KT. SEAS 9 TO 14 FT.

$$

SOUTHCENTRAL AND SOUTHWEST ALASKA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ANCHORAGE AK
500 AM AKDT WED MAR 30 2016

.ANALYSIS AND UPPER LEVELS...
THE MOST PROMINENT FEATURE ON THE WATER VAPOR SATELLITE THIS
MORNING IS THE VERY LARGE BLOCKING RIDGE OVER THE NORTHEASTERN
PACIFIC. IT'S PARTNER IN CRIME...A STACKED CLOSED LOW OVER THE
NORTHCENTRAL PACIFIC. A 100 KT JET IS SQUEEZED BETWEEN THE TWO
SYSTEMS...POINTING TOWARD THE ALASKA PENINSULA THEN CURVING AROUND
THE RIDGE OVER ALASKA INTO THE YUKON. THIS ORIENTATION OF THE
WINDS ALOFT ARE PUSHING A PREVIOUSLY STATIONARY FRONTAL BOUNDARY
OVER SOUTHWESTERN AND SOUTHCENTRAL ALASKA. THERE IS PLENTY OF WARM
AIR BEHIND THE FRONT WHERE PRECIPITATION TYPE IS RAIN NEARLY
EVERYWHERE...EXCEPT FOR THE TIP OF THE ALASKA PENINSULA WHERE COLD
AIR HAS YET TO BE DISPLACED BY THE FRONT. THE FLOW REMAINS VERY
MOIST...EVEN WITH STRONG CROSS BARRIER FLOW...RAIN IS HAVING NO
PROBLEM MAKING IT TO THE SURFACE.

&&

.MODEL DISCUSSION...
GUIDANCE IS IN GREAT SYNOPTIC AGREEMENT WITH THE MAJOR FEATURES.
HOWEVER...OBSERVATION OVERNIGHT INDICATES THAT THEY ARE PLAYING
CATCH UP TO THE REAL WORLD. THE FRONTAL PROGRESSION IS ON AVERAGE
2 HOURS FASTER AROUND MOST OF THE AREA...AND AS MUCH AS 6 HOURS
FASTER FOR SOME FEATURES ALOFT...SUCH AS THE DRY SLOT OVER THE
ALASKA PENINSULA. THE ONE KEY MESOSCALE FEATURES GUIDANCE IS
MISSING IS HOW THE NORTHERLY FLOW IS HOLDING COLD AIR AT THE
SURFACE OUT AHEAD OF THE POTENT FRONT. OTHERWISE...THE PROGRESSION
OF THE FRONT REMAINS WELL AGREED UPON. BOTH DOMAINS USED THE NAM.

&&

.SHORT TERM FORECAST SOUTHCENTRAL ALASKA (DAYS 1 AND 2)...

A POTENT FRONTAL SYSTEM WILL PUSH ACROSS SOUTHCENTRAL ALASKA TODAY
AND BRING WIDESPREAD RAINFALL TO THE REGION. SHARP RIDGING WILL
RAPIDLY BUILD FROM SOUTHEAST ALASKA ALONG THE NORTHERN GULF COAST
WHICH WILL HELP BRING AN ABRUPT END TO PRECIPITATION ACROSS MUCH
OF SOUTHCENTRAL ALASKA COME THIS EVENING. STRONG PRESSURE RISES
BEHIND THE AFOREMENTIONED FRONT WILL RAPIDLY INCREASE GAP WINDS
FOLLOWING THE FRONTAL PASSAGE TODAY. THE MAIN LOCATIONS THAT WILL
FEEL THESE STRONG GAP WINDS WILL BE TURNAGAIN ARM AND PORTAGE
VALLEY. WINDS IN THESE LOCATIONS WILL LIKELY GUST IN THE 50 TO 60
MPH RANGE AND A FEW GUSTS TO 40 MPH COULD BE SEEN THROUGH THE KNIK
RIVER VALLEY. WENT AHEAD AND LOWERED POPS THROUGH PORTIONS OF THE
COPPER RIVER BASIN TO ZERO AS STRONG DOWNSLOPING WINDS DEVELOP AS
THE FRONT LIFTS THROUGH THIS MORNING. THESE DOWNSLOPING WINDS WILL
ALLOW TEMPERATURES TO WARM QUICKLY INTO THE LOWER 50S IN THE
COPPER RIVER BASIN TODAY.

SPEAKING OF WARMER TEMPERATURES...WELL ABOVE SEASONAL AVERAGE
VALUES WILL BE SEEN OVER THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF THE WEEK AS THE
RIDGE OVER THE SOUTHEAST MAINLAND BUILDS OVER SOUTHCENTRAL ALASKA
AND ADVECTS VERY WARM AIR OVER THE REGION. ALL GUIDANCE IS CURRENTLY
IN GOOD AGREEMENT THAT 850 MB TEMPERATURES WILL WARM TO +5 DEGREES
CELSIUS OVER ANCHORAGE THURSDAY AFTERNOON WHICH WOULD CORRELATE
WITH SFC TEMPERATURES IN THE LOW TO MID 50S (WHICH WOULD BE A
RECORD FOR MARCH 31ST). OTHER LOCATIONS WILL CONTINUE TO SEE
TEMPERATURES 10 TO 15 DEGREES ABOVE NORMAL BEFORE THE RIDGE GETS
SHUNTED EASTWARD ON FRIDAY AND TEMPERATURES BEGIN TO MODERATE
CLOSER TO SEASONAL AVERAGES.

&&

.SHORT TERM FORECAST SOUTHWEST ALASKA (DAYS 1 AND 2)...
THE WARM AND WET PATTERN WILL CONTINUE OVER SOUTHWEST ALASKA AS A
WARM FRONT PUSHES INTO THE REGION TODAY THROUGH THURSDAY
AFTERNOON. SNOW WILL GRADUALLY CHANGE TO RAIN FROM SOUTH TO NORTH
TODAY OVER THE BRISTOL BAY REGION AND THE KUSKOKWIM VALLEY EAST OF
SLEETMUTE. OVER THE KUSKOKWIM DELTA AND THE KUSKOKWIM VALLEY FROM
SLEETMUTE WEST...COLD AIR WILL HOLD ON A BIT LONGER...PRODUCING
STEADY MODERATE SNOW OVER THE WITH THE HIGHEST TOTALS WEST OF
SLEETMUTE WITH ADVISORY AMOUNTS EXPECTED. AS THE WARM AIR
CONTINUES TO TRAVERSE NORTHWARD THIS EVENING...AN OVERRUNNING
SITUATION IS EXPECTED TO DEVELOP FROM ANIAK WESTWARD TO BETHEL
WITH SURFACE TEMPERATURES REMAINING BELOW FREEZING...THUS THE
ISSUANCE OF THE FREEZING RAIN ADVISORY. AT THIS TIME...ONLY LIGHT
ICE ACCUMULATIONS ARE EXPECTED HOWEVER IF QPF AMOUNTS ARE HIGHER
THAN EXPECTED ICE ACCUMULATIONS CERTAINLY MAY BE HIGHER. BY MID-
DAY THURSDAY...ENOUGH WARM AIR IS EXPECTED TO MOVE INTO THE
KUSKOKWIM DELTA TO CHANGE THE PRECIPITATION TYPE OVER TO ALL RAIN
FROM BETHEL EAST WITH SNOW REMAINING NORTH AND WEST OF BETHEL.

&&

.SHORT TERM FORECAST BERING SEA/ALEUTIANS (DAYS 1 AND 2)...
NORTH TO NORTHEAST FLOW IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE OVER MOST OF THE
BERING SEA THROUGH THE SHORT TERM AS THE LARGE RIDGE REMAINS
FIRMLY IN PLACE OVER THE NORTHEASTERN PACIFIC. A WARM FRONT MOVING
INTO THE REGION ALONG THE SOUTHWEST ALASKA COAST IS WILL CONTINUE
TO BRING PRECIPITATION TO THE ALASKA PENINSULA TODAY AND TO THE
PRIBILOF ISLANDS STARTING TONIGHT. AS WINDS ALONG THIS FRONT
INCREASE TO GALE FORCE...AREAS OF BLOWING SNOW ARE EXPECTED TO
DEVELOP OVER THE PRIBILOF ISLANDS LATER THIS EVENING...ALTHOUGH
WIDESPREAD IMPACTS ARE NOT EXPECTED WITH RELATIVELY LITTLE SNOW
ALREADY ON THE GROUND AND LOW QPF AMOUNTS EXPECTED. WINDS ARE
EXPECTED TO DECREASE OVER THE REGION THURSDAY AS THE GRADIENT
WEAKENS.

&&

.LONG TERM FORECAST (DAYS 3 THROUGH 7)...
THE WET PATTERN WILL RETURN TO SOUTHCENTRAL THURSDAY NIGHT AFTER
A BRIEF PERIOD OF DRIER WEATHER AS A FRONT PUSHES THROUGH THE GULF
AND THE WEAKENING UPPER LEVEL RIDGE IS DISPLACED NORTH AND
EASTWARD. THIS WILL ALLOW ONSHORE FLOW TO BECOME RE-ESTABLISHED
AND SUPPORT ENHANCED PRECIPITATION ALONG THE GULF COAST AND MORE
SPORADIC ACTIVITY INLAND DUE TO DOWNSLOPE FLOW IN THE LEE OF THE
COASTAL MOUNTAIN RANGES. THIS SHIFT IN THE PATTERN WILL ALSO BRING
A COOLING TREND STARTING THIS WEEKEND AS COLDER AIR FILTERS INTO
THE REGION FROM THE SOUTHWEST AHEAD OF A BROAD UPPER TROUGH OVER
THE EASTERN BERING. DESPITE THE COOLING TREND...TEMPERATURES ARE
STILL EXPECTED TO REMAIN ABOVE SEASONAL NORMAL VALUES THROUGH
EARLY NEXT WEEK ACROSS MUCH OF THE SOUTHERN MAINLAND. THE BERING
SEA AND AREAS ALONG THE SOUTHWEST COAST WILL ALSO REMAIN IN A
FAIRLY WET PATTERN INTO THE EARLY PART OF NEXT WEEK BENEATH THE
PERSISTENT UPPER TROUGH.

&&

.AFC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
PUBLIC...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY 152 155.
MARINE...GALE 165 170 172 173 174 175 176 179 180 181 185.
         HEAVY FREEZING SPRAY 179 180.

&&

SYNOPSIS AND MODEL DISCUSSION...MTL
SOUTHCENTRAL ALASKA...MMC
SOUTHWEST ALASKA/BERING SEA/ALEUTIANS...RLF
LONG TERM...CB