Gale Warning 211, NWS Anchorage, AK

544 
FZAK62 PAFC 011247
OFFALU

OFFSHORE WATERS FORECAST
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ANCHORAGE AK
347 AM AKST TUE MAR 1 2016

OFFSHORE WATERS FORECAST FOR THE BERING SEA

WIND FORECASTS REFLECT THE PREDOMINANT SPEED AND DIRECTION
EXPECTED. SEA FORECASTS REPRESENT AN AVERAGE OF THE HIGHEST
ONE-THIRD OF THE COMBINED WIND WAVE AND SWELL HEIGHT.

PKZ499-020415-
347 AM AKST TUE MAR 1 2016
.SYNOPSIS FOR CENTRAL BERING SEA...

A 974 MB LOW NEAR 54N 170W WILL MOVE TO NEAR 54N 177W AT 983 MB
WED MORNING AND THEN DISSIPATE OVER THE WESTERN ALEUTIANS WED
NIGHT.

$$

PKZ411-020415-
BERING SEA OFFSHORE WEST OF 180 AND EAST OF THE INTERNATIONAL
DATELINE-
347 AM AKST TUE MAR 1 2016

...GALE WARNING TONIGHT AND WEDNESDAY...

.TODAY...NE WIND 20 TO 30 KT. SEAS 11 FT.
.TONIGHT...NE WIND 20 TO 35 KT. SEAS 9 TO 15 FT.
.WED...NE WIND 20 TO 35 KT. SEAS 12 TO 16 FT. SNOW AND RAIN
SHOWERS.
.WED NIGHT...E WIND 20 TO 35 KT. SEAS 10 TO 16 FT.
.THU THROUGH SAT...NE WIND 20 TO 30 KT. SEAS 9 TO 14 FT.

$$

PKZ412-020415-
BERING SEA OFFSHORE 171W TO 180 AND NORTH OF 56N-
347 AM AKST TUE MAR 1 2016

...GALE WARNING TODAY...

.TODAY...NE WIND 25 TO 35 KT. SEAS 10 TO 15 FT.
.TONIGHT...NE WIND 30 KT. SEAS 10 TO 16 FT.
.WED...E WIND 30 KT. SEAS 10 TO 15 FT. SNOW AND RAIN SHOWERS.
.WED NIGHT...E WIND 20 TO 30 KT. SEAS 8 TO 13 FT.
.THU THROUGH SAT...N WIND 20 TO 35 KT. SEAS 8 TO 11 FT.

$$

PKZ413-020415-
BERING SEA OFFSHORE 171W TO 180 AND SOUTH OF 56N-
347 AM AKST TUE MAR 1 2016

...GALE WARNING TODAY...

.TODAY...NE WIND 20 TO 35 KT. SEAS 11 TO 16 FT. RAIN AND SNOW
SHOWERS.
.TONIGHT...NE WIND 15 TO 30 KT. SEAS 10 TO 14 FT. SNOW AND RAIN
SHOWERS.
.WED...SE WIND 15 TO 30 KT. SEAS 8 TO 13 FT. RAIN AND SNOW
SHOWERS.
.WED NIGHT...E WIND 25 KT. SEAS 7 TO 11 FT.
.THU THROUGH SAT...N WIND 30 KT. SEAS 7 TO 11 FT.

$$

PKZ414-020415-
BERING SEA OFFSHORE EAST OF 171W-
347 AM AKST TUE MAR 1 2016

...GALE WARNING TODAY...

.TODAY...E WIND 25 TO 35 KT. SEAS 9 TO 15 FT.
.TONIGHT...SE WIND 30 KT. SEAS 8 TO 12 FT.
.WED...SE WIND 20 TO 30 KT. SEAS 7 TO 12 FT.
.WED NIGHT...E WIND 15 TO 25 KT. SEAS 5 TO 9 FT.
.THU THROUGH SAT...N WIND 20 TO 30 KT. SEAS 5 TO 10 FT.

$$

246 
FZAK62 PAFC 020004
OFFALU

OFFSHORE WATERS FORECAST
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ANCHORAGE AK
304 PM AKST TUE MAR 1 2016

OFFSHORE WATERS FORECAST FOR THE BERING SEA

WIND FORECASTS REFLECT THE PREDOMINANT SPEED AND DIRECTION
EXPECTED. SEA FORECASTS REPRESENT AN AVERAGE OF THE HIGHEST
ONE-THIRD OF THE COMBINED WIND WAVE AND SWELL HEIGHT.

PKZ499-021430-
304 PM AKST TUE MAR 1 2016
.SYNOPSIS FOR CENTRAL BERING SEA...
A 980 MB LOW NEAR 53N 173W WILL MOVE TO NEAR 53N 177W AT 983 MB
WED MORNING AND THEN DISSIPATE OVER THE WESTERN ALEUTIANS LATE WED
NIGHT.

$$

PKZ411-021430-
BERING SEA OFFSHORE WEST OF 180 AND EAST OF THE INTERNATIONAL
DATELINE-
304 PM AKST TUE MAR 1 2016

.TONIGHT...NE WIND 20 TO 30 KT. SEAS 8 TO 13 FT.
.WED...NE WIND 15 TO 30 KT. SEAS 10 TO 14 FT. SNOW SHOWERS AND
RAIN SHOWERS.
.WED NIGHT...E WIND 15 TO 30 KT. SEAS 9 TO 14 FT. RAIN AND SNOW.
.THU...E WIND 15 TO 25 KT. SEAS 10 TO 13 FT.
.THU NIGHT...NE WIND 20 TO 30 KT. SEAS 8 TO 11 FT.
.FRI THROUGH SUN...N WIND 20 TO 30 KT. SEAS 8 TO 13 FT.

$$

PKZ412-021430-
BERING SEA OFFSHORE 171W TO 180 AND NORTH OF 56N-
304 PM AKST TUE MAR 1 2016

.TONIGHT...NE WIND 20 TO 30 KT. SEAS 8 TO 12 FT.
.WED...E WIND 20 TO 30 KT. SEAS 8 TO 12 FT. RAIN SHOWERS AND SNOW
SHOWERS.
.WED NIGHT...E WIND 15 TO 25 KT. SEAS 7 TO 11 FT. RAIN AND SNOW.
.THU...E WIND 15 TO 25 KT. SEAS 7 TO 10 FT.
.THU NIGHT...E WIND 30 KT. SEAS 8 TO 11 FT.
.FRI THROUGH SUN...N WIND 25 TO 35 KT. SEAS 9 TO 13 FT.

$$

PKZ413-021430-
BERING SEA OFFSHORE 171W TO 180 AND SOUTH OF 56N-
304 PM AKST TUE MAR 1 2016

.TONIGHT...NE WIND 15 TO 30 KT. SEAS 9 TO 12 FT. RAIN SHOWERS AND
SNOW SHOWERS.
.WED...SE WIND 15 TO 30 KT. SEAS 8 TO 11 FT. RAIN SHOWERS AND SNOW
SHOWERS.
.WED NIGHT...SE WIND 15 TO 25 KT. SEAS 6 TO 10 FT. RAIN AND SNOW.
.THU...E WIND 15 TO 25 KT. SEAS 6 TO 10 FT.
.THU NIGHT...E WIND 25 KT. SEAS 9 FT.
.FRI THROUGH SUN...N WIND 20 TO 30 KT. SEAS 8 TO 12 FT.

$$

PKZ414-021430-
BERING SEA OFFSHORE EAST OF 171W-
304 PM AKST TUE MAR 1 2016

.TONIGHT...SE WIND 20 TO 30 KT. SEAS 7 TO 10 FT.
.WED...SE WIND 20 TO 30 KT. SEAS 6 TO 10 FT.
.WED NIGHT...E WIND 20 KT. SEAS 7 FT.
.THU...E WIND 20 KT. SEAS 5 FT.
.THU NIGHT...NE WIND 25 KT. SEAS 5 TO 8 FT.
.FRI THROUGH SUN...N WIND 30 KT. SEAS 7 TO 11 FT.

$$

SOUTHCENTRAL AND SOUTHWEST ALASKA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ANCHORAGE AK
526 AM AKST MON FEB 29 2016

.ANALYSIS AND UPPER LEVELS...
A BROAD AREA OF LOW PRESSURE SITS JUST SOUTH OF THE EASTERN
ALEUTIANS WITH MULTIPLE EMBEDDED LOWS. THE MAIN ONE IS SOUTH OF
THE ALASKA PENINSULA AND HEADING TO THE NORTHWEST BRINGING WARM
AIR TO THE PENINSULA. RIDGING REMAINS TO THE EAST KEEPING
SOUTHEASTERLY FLOW OVER THE GULF AND SOUTHERN ALASKA. WHILE THE
FRONT THAT WAS IMPACTING THE NORTH GULF COAST HAS DISSIPATED THERE
ARE LINGERING SHOWERS ALONG THE COASTLINE.

&&

.MODEL DISCUSSION...
THE MODELS ARE IN OVERALL GOOD AGREEMENT WITH THE MAJOR FEATURES.
THERE ARE SOME DISCREPANCIES WITH WEAKER LOWS MOVING THROUGH THE
AREA BUT THIS SHOULD PLAY A MINIMAL ROLE IN TERMS OF IMPACTS. THE
ONLY EXCEPTION IS A TRIPLE POINT LOW MOVING INTO THE GULF THIS
AFTERNOON. THE EC HAS THE STRONGEST LOW WHICH WOULD HAVE THE
STRONGEST WINDS WHILE THE NAM AND GFS ARE MUCH WEAKER. THE UPPER
LEVELS DO NOT SUPPORT A STRONGER LOW SO THE NAM WAS CHOSEN FOR A
WEAKER SOLUTION.

&&

.SHORT TERM FORECAST SOUTHCENTRAL ALASKA (DAYS 1 AND 2)...

SATELLITE IMAGERY THIS MORNING INDICATES A FRONT SOUTH OF KODIAK
ISLAND THAT STRETCHES WESTWARD TO A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM THAT IS
SPINNING SOUTH OF UNALASKA ISLAND. SATELLITE IMAGERY ALSO
INDICATES A WEAK TRIPLE POINT LOW DEVELOPING ALONG THE SOUTHERN
PERIPHERY OF THE FRONT...WELL INTO THE PACIFIC. WHILE THERE IS
SOME DISAGREEMENT ON THE MANIFESTATION OF THIS TRIPLE POINT AS IT
PROGRESSES TOWARDS KODIAK ISLAND THIS EVENING...IT WILL LIKELY
PRODUCE STORM FORCE WINDS IN THE WATERS AROUND KODIAK
ISLAND...WITH SOME GUSTY WINDS LIKELY IN KODIAK CITY AS WELL.
HOWEVER...AS THIS FRONT IS NOT TAPPING INTO A VERY RICH MOISTURE
SUPPLY...NO HEAVY RAIN IS ANTICIPATED...WITH JUST MODERATE
RAINFALL.

IN CONTRAST...RELATIVELY QUIET WEATHER IS ANTICIPATED ACROSS
SOUTHCENTRAL OVER THE NEXT FEW DAYS...AS THE FRONT REMAINS WELL TO
THE SOUTH. AN UPPER LEVEL RIDGE WILL BUILD EASTWARD ACROSS
MAINLAND ALASKA THROUGH TUESDAY...LIMITING MOST PRECIPITATION IN THE
REGION TO ISOLATED SHOWERS ALONG THE MOUNTAINS. AS CLEAR SKIES
BUILD IN...COOLER TEMPERATURES AND PATCHY FOG ARE POSSIBLE ACROSS
LOCAL VALLEYS BY TUESDAY NIGHT.

&&

.SHORT TERM FORECAST SOUTHWEST ALASKA (DAYS 1 AND 2)...
SOUTHWEST ALASKA WILL GENERALLY STAY IN A BREEZY AND DRY PATTERN
THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT AS A LOW MOVES ALONG THE ALASKA PENINSULA
THIS MORNING HEADS WESTWARD. THE FRONT ASSOCIATED WITH THIS LOW
WILL MOVE ALONG THE ALASKA PENINSULA TODAY AND STALL AS THE LOW
MOVES WESTWARD...PRODUCING SHOWERS MAINLY ALONG THE ALEUTIAN RANGE
AND THE ALASKA PENINSULA TONIGHT. EARLY TUESDAY MORNING...A SECOND
SHORTWAVE MOVING AROUND THE LOW WILL HELP TO KICK OFF SHOWERS...MAINLY
OVER BRISTOL BAY TUESDAY MORNING THEN THE KUSKOKWIM DELTA TUESDAY
EVENING. WITH THE STRONG CROSS MOUNTAIN FLOW...EXPECT
PRECIPITATION AMOUNTS TO BE LIGHT.

WINDS WILL BE THE STRONGEST THIS AFTERNOON THROUGH THE OVERNIGHT
HOURS AS THE LOW IS THE STRONGEST WHILE CROSSING THE AKPEN. WINDS
WILL DIMINISH TUESDAY MORNING AS THE LOW WEAKENS AND MOVES
WESTWARD.

&&

.SHORT TERM FORECAST BERING SEA/ALEUTIANS (DAYS 1 AND 2)...
WINDS WILL RAPIDLY INCREASE TO GALE AND NEAR STORM FORCE OVER THE
EASTERN PORTION OF THE AREA THIS MORNING AS THE 963MB LOW MOVES
TO NEAR UNIMAK PASS TODAY. WINDS WILL BEING TO LAY DOWN LATE THIS
AFTERNOON SOUTH OF THE ALASKA PENINSULA AND GRADUALLY FALL BELOW
GALE FORCE FOR THE AREA BY EARLY TUESDAY MORNING. AS THE LOW
CONTINUES ITS PARADE WESTWARD ALONG THE ALEUTIAN CHAIN...WINDS
WILL INCREASE AGAIN TO GALE FORCE IN THE CENTRAL BERING AND
ALEUTIANS TOMORROW EVENING.

WIDESPREAD PRECIPITATION IS EXPECTED WITH THIS LOW AS THE FRONT
PULLS ACROSS THE ALASKA PENINSULA TODAY AND THEN ELONGATES OVER
THE EASTERN BERING THROUGH TUESDAY MORNING. RAIN AND SNOW WILL BE
WIDESPREAD ALONG THE ALASKA PENINSULA AND EASTERN ALEUTIANS TODAY
BEFORE TAPERING OFF TONIGHT. BY TUESDAY MORNING...MOST OF THE
PRECIPITATION WILL BE CENTERED AROUND THE LOW OVER THE CENTRAL
ALEUTIANS AND THE PRIBILOF ISLANDS.

&&

.LONG TERM FORECAST (DAYS 3 THROUGH 7)...
THERE WILL BE A SLIGHT PATTERN CHANGE FEATURED DURING THIS TIME.
THE NORTH AMERICAN RIDGE WILL SURGE BACK FROM NORTHWEST CANADA
TOWARD SOUTH CENTRAL AK DURING THE MIDDLE OF THE WEEK. THIS WILL
MAKE WED AND THU SOME OF THE CLEAREST DAYS WE HAVE HAD FOR A WHILE
FROM THE COPPER RIVER BASIN THROUGH SOUTHERN KENAI. WHILE THIS
RIDGE WILL BRING SUNNY SKIES TO THE AREA...TEMPERATURES WILL ONLY
BE SLIGHTLY ABOVE NORMAL AS DEEP SOUTHERLY FLOW AND DOWNSLOPING
MOVES AWAY FROM THE SOUTH MAINLAND. MEANWHILE...OVER THE NORTH
PACIFIC AND THE CENTRAL ALEUTIANS...ONE DECAYING LOW NEAR DUTCH
HARBOR WILL BE REPLACED BY ANOTHER MOVING UP FROM THE NORTH
PACIFIC. THIS WILL ALLOW FRONTS TO ONCE AGAIN RETURN TO THE GULF
COAST BY FRIDAY...WITH POSSIBLE TRIPLE POINT LOWS FORMING ON THESE
FRONTS. NONE OF THESE FEATURES APPEAR TO BE OVERLY STRONG AND WILL
LIKELY ONLY BRING PRECIPITATION TO COASTAL LOCALES. HOWEVER...WITH
HIGH PRESSURE INLAND...THESE SYSTEMS SHOULD SERVE TO INCREASE THE
OFFSHORE GRADIENT. THIS WILL KEEP OUTFLOW WINDS THROUGH FAVORED
AREAS BLOWING TOWARD THE END OF THE WEEK. THEY COULD ALSO BRING
BOUTS OF STRONGER GALE TO POSSIBLY EVEN STORM FORCE WINDS INTO THE
BARRIER JET REGION AS WELL.

OUT WEST...WE WILL CONTINUE TO CYCLE THROUGH LOWS SWINGING UP FROM
THE GULF AND INTO THE CENTRAL ALEUTIANS. GALE-FORCE WINDS WILL
BE POSSIBLE...MAINLY ON THE SOUTH SIDE OF THE ALEUTIANS...AS EACH
FRONT PASSES. AS WE MOVE TOWARD THE WEEKEND...HIGH PRESSURE
BUILDING OVER EASTERN RUSSIA WILL SQUEEZE THE GRADIENT OVER MUCH
OF THE BERING. THIS WILL BRING GALE-FORCE NORTHEAST FLOW TO THE
AREA.

&&

.AFC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
PUBLIC...NONE.
MARINE...STORM 131 138
         GALE 119 120 130 132 136 137 139 150 155 160 165 170
              172 179 180 185.

&&

SYNOPSIS AND MODEL DISCUSSION...DK
SOUTHCENTRAL ALASKA...EN
SOUTHWEST ALASKA/BERING SEA/ALEUTIANS...RF
LONG TERM...MO/DEK