Gale Warning 177, NWS Anchorage, AK

913 
FZAK51 PAFC 201237
CWFAER

COASTAL WATERS FORECAST
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ANCHORAGE ALASKA
337 AM AKST SAT FEB 20 2016

COASTAL WATERS FORECAST FOR THE NORTHERN GULF OF ALASKA COAST
UP TO 100 NM OUT INCLUDING KODIAK ISLAND AND COOK INLET.

WIND FORECASTS REFLECT THE PREDOMINANT SPEED AND DIRECTION
EXPECTED. SEA FORECASTS REPRESENT AN AVERAGE OF THE HIGHEST
ONE-THIRD OF THE COMBINED WIND WAVE AND SWELL HEIGHT.

PKZ197-210145-
337 AM AKST SAT FEB 20 2016
.SYNOPSIS FOR THE NORTH GULF COAST+KODIAK ISLAND WATERS+
COOK INLET...
A 968 MB LOW 200 NM SOUTH OF CHIRIKOF ISLAND MOVES TO NEAR
PERRYVILLE AT 972 MB LATE TONIGHT...THEN DRIFTS INTO THE BERING.
AN ASSOCIATED FRONT OVER THE SOUTHERN GULF MOVES TO THE NORTHERN
GULF THIS AFTERNOON...THEN STALLS ALONG THE NORTH GULF COAST. A
988 MB LOW 225 NM SOUTHWEST OF SITKA LATE TONIGHT MOVES TO NEAR
MOOSE PASS MIDDAY SUN...THEN MOVES INTO ALASKA.

$$

PKZ119-210145-
CAPE SUCKLING TO CAPE CLEARE-
337 AM AKST SAT FEB 20 2016

...STORM WARNING THROUGH SUNDAY...

.TODAY...E WIND 30 KT INCREASING TO 55 KT IN THE AFTERNOON. SEAS
8 FT BUILDING TO 19 FT IN THE AFTERNOON. RAIN.
.TONIGHT...SE WIND 40 KT BECOMING NE 25 KT AFTER MIDNIGHT. NEAR
THE COAST...SE WIND 50 KT. SEAS 25 FT. RAIN.
.SUN...E WIND 50 KT BECOMING S 30 KT IN THE AFTERNOON. SEAS 30
FT. RAIN SHOWERS.
.SUN NIGHT...SE WIND 25 KT. SEAS 19 FT.
.MON...SE WIND 25 KT. SEAS 13 FT.
.TUE...E WIND 45 KT. SEAS 29 FT.
.WED...SE WIND 35 KT. SEAS 23 FT.

$$

PKZ120-210145-
CAPE CLEARE TO GORE POINT-
337 AM AKST SAT FEB 20 2016

...STORM WARNING TODAY...

.TODAY...E WIND 35 KT INCREASING TO 55 KT IN THE AFTERNOON. 
SEAS 12 FT BUILDING TO 19 FT IN THE AFTERNOON. RAIN.
.TONIGHT...SE WIND 35 KT IN THE EVENING BECOMING VARIABLE 10 KT.
SEAS 22 FT. RAIN.
.SUN...NW WIND 15 KT BECOMING S 25 KT IN THE AFTERNOON. SEAS 19
FT. RAIN AND SNOW SHOWERS.
.SUN NIGHT...S WIND 30 KT. SEAS 19 FT.
.MON...SE WIND 30 KT. SEAS 15 FT.
.TUE...E WIND 45 KT. SEAS 30 FT.
.WED...E WIND 35 KT. SEAS 23 FT.

$$

PKZ121-210145-
RESURRECTION BAY-
337 AM AKST SAT FEB 20 2016

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY TODAY...

.TODAY...N WIND 10 KT INCREASING TO 25 KT IN THE AFTERNOON. SEAS
2 FT BUILDING TO 5 FT IN THE AFTERNOON...HIGHER WINDS AND SEAS S
OF CAINES HEAD. SNOW AND RAIN.
.TONIGHT...S WIND 20 KT BECOMING VARIABLE WIND 10 KT AFTER
MIDNIGHT. SEAS 4 FT. HIGHER SEAS S OF CAINES HEAD. SNOW AND RAIN.
.SUN...N WIND 10 KT BECOMING S 15 KT IN THE AFTERNOON. SEAS 3 FT.
HIGHER SEAS S OF CAINES HEAD. SNOW AND RAIN.
.SUN NIGHT...S WIND 15 KT. SEAS 3 FT.
.MON...S WIND 15 KT. SEAS 3 FT.
.TUE...N WIND 25 KT. SEAS 5 FT.
.WED...N WIND 20 KT. SEAS 4 FT.

$$

PKZ125-210145-
PRINCE WILLIAM SOUND-
337 AM AKST SAT FEB 20 2016

...GALE WARNING THROUGH SUNDAY...

.TODAY...E WIND 20 KT INCREASING TO 35 KT IN THE AFTERNOON. GUSTS
TO 50 KT NEAR HINCHINBROOK ENTRANCE THIS AFTERNOON. SEAS 4 FT
BUILDING TO 9 FT IN THE AFTERNOON. RAIN AND SNOW.
.TONIGHT...E WIND 40 KT. GUSTS TO 50 KT NEAR HINCHINBROOK
ENTRANCE. SEAS 10 FT. RAIN.
.SUN...E WIND 40 KT BECOMING SE 25 KT IN THE AFTERNOON. SEAS 10
FT SUBSIDING TO 6 FT. RAIN.
.SUN NIGHT...SE WIND 20 KT. SEAS 4 FT.
.MON...SE WIND 20 KT. SEAS 3 FT.
.TUE THROUGH WED...E WIND 25 KT. SEAS 6 FT.

$$

PKZ126-210145-
PORT VALDEZ-
337 AM AKST SAT FEB 20 2016

.TODAY...NE WIND 15 KT. SEAS 3 FT. SNOW AND RAIN.
.TONIGHT...NE WIND 15 KT. SEAS 3 FT. SNOW. 
.SUN...NE WIND 15 KT BECOMING E 10 KT IN THE AFTERNOON. SEAS 3 FT.
SNOW AND RAIN.
.SUN NIGHT...E WIND 10 KT. SEAS 2 FT.
.MON THROUGH TUE...NE WIND 10 KT. SEAS 2 FT.
.WED...NE WIND 15 KT. SEAS 3 FT.

$$

PKZ127-210145-
VALDEZ NARROWS-
337 AM AKST SAT FEB 20 2016

...GALE WARNING THROUGH TONIGHT...

.TODAY...NE WIND 35 KT DIMINISHING TO 30 KT THIS MORNING. SEAS 4
FT. FREEZING SPRAY THIS MORNING. SNOW SHOWERS.
.TONIGHT...NE WIND 35 KT. SEAS 4 FT. SNOW.
.SUN...N WIND 30 KT. SEAS 4 FT. SNOW AND RAIN.
.SUN NIGHT...NE WIND 25 KT. SEAS 3 FT.
.MON...NE WIND 25 KT. SEAS 3 FT.
.TUE...NE WIND 20 KT. SEAS 3 FT.
.WED...NE WIND 25 KT. SEAS 3 FT.

$$

PKZ128-210145-
VALDEZ ARM-
337 AM AKST SAT FEB 20 2016

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY THROUGH SUNDAY...

.TODAY...NE WIND 25 KT. SEAS 5 FT. SNOW AND RAIN.
.TONIGHT...NE WIND 30 KT. SEAS 6 FT. RAIN AND SNOW.
.SUN...NE WIND 30 KT. SEAS 6 FT. RAIN AND SNOW.
.SUN NIGHT...NE WIND 20 KT. SEAS 4 FT.
.MON THROUGH WED...NE WIND 15 KT. SEAS 3 FT.

$$

PKZ129-210145-
PASSAGE CANAL-
337 AM AKST SAT FEB 20 2016

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY THROUGH SUNDAY...

.TODAY...WIND BECOMING E 15 KT THIS MORNING...THEN INCREASING TO
25 KT LATE THIS AFTERNOON. SEAS BUILDING TO 4 FT. SNOW AND RAIN.
.TONIGHT...E WIND 30 KT. SEAS 5 FT. RAIN AND SNOW.
.SUN...E WIND 30 KT. SEAS 5 FT. RAIN AND SNOW.
.SUN NIGHT...E WIND 15 KT. SEAS 2 FT.
.MON...E WIND 15 KT. SEAS 2 FT.
.TUE...E WIND 20 KT. SEAS 3 FT.
.WED...E WIND 25 KT. SEAS 4 FT.

$$

PKZ130-210145-
WEST OF BARREN ISLANDS INCLUDING KAMISHAK BAY-
337 AM AKST SAT FEB 20 2016

...STORM WARNING TODAY...

.TODAY...NE WIND 40 KT BECOMING NE 55 KT IN THE AFTERNOON. SEAS
17 FT. RAIN AND SNOW.
.TONIGHT...NE WIND 40 KT BECOMING SE 25 KT AFTER MIDNIGHT. SEAS
17 FT SUBSIDING TO 9 FT AFTER MIDNIGHT. RAIN AND SNOW.
.SUN...E WIND 20 KT. SEAS 6 FT. RAIN AND SNOW.
.SUN NIGHT...SE WIND 30 KT. SEAS 10 FT.
.MON...SE WIND 30 KT. SEAS 11 FT.
.TUE...E WIND 45 KT. SEAS 19 FT.
.WED...E WIND 30 KT. SEAS 13 FT.

$$

PKZ131-210145-
BARREN ISLANDS EAST-
337 AM AKST SAT FEB 20 2016

...STORM WARNING TODAY...

.TODAY...E WIND 40 KT INCREASING TO 55 KT IN THE AFTERNOON. SEAS
18 FT. RAIN.
.TONIGHT...SE WIND 40 KT DIMINISHING TO 20 KT AFTER MIDNIGHT. SEAS
15 FT. RAIN.
.SUN...S WIND 15 KT INCREASING TO 25 KT IN THE AFTERNOON. SEAS 13
FT BUILDING TO 18 FT IN THE AFTERNOON. RAIN AND SNOW.
.SUN NIGHT...S WIND 30 KT. SEAS 17 FT.
.MON...SE WIND 35 KT. SEAS 16 FT.
.TUE...E WIND 45 KT. SEAS 30 FT.
.WED...SE WIND 35 KT. SEAS 22 FT.

$$

PKZ132-210145-
MARMOT ISLAND TO SITKINAK-
337 AM AKST SAT FEB 20 2016

...GALE WARNING THROUGH TONIGHT...

.TODAY...SE WIND 40 KT. SEAS 14 FT. RAIN.
.TONIGHT...SE WIND 45 KT EXCEPT SE 30 KT N OF DANGEROUS CAPE. SEAS
18 FT.
.SUN...SE WIND 30 KT. SEAS 16 FT. RAIN.
.SUN NIGHT...S WIND 30 KT. SEAS 16 FT.
.MON...SE WIND 45 KT. SEAS 17 FT.
.TUE...E WIND 50 KT. SEAS 27 FT.
.WED...SE WIND 30 KT. SEAS 21 FT.

$$

PKZ136-210145-
CHINIAK BAY-
337 AM AKST SAT FEB 20 2016

...GALE WARNING TODAY...

.TODAY...E WIND 40 KT BECOMING SE 30 KT IN THE AFTERNOON. SEAS
11 FT. RAIN.
.TONIGHT...SE WIND 25 KT. SEAS 9 FT. RAIN AND SNOW SHOWERS.
.SUN...SE WIND 20 KT. SEAS 7 FT. RAIN AND SNOW SHOWERS
.SUN NIGHT...S WIND 25 KT. SEAS 7 FT.
.MON...SE WIND 30 KT. SEAS 8 FT.
.TUE...E WIND 40 KT. SEAS 17 FT.
.WED...SE WIND 25 KT. SEAS 10 FT.

$$

PKZ137-210145-
MARMOT BAY-
337 AM AKST SAT FEB 20 2016

...GALE WARNING TODAY...

.TODAY...E WIND 35 KT. SEAS 13 FT. RAIN.
.TONIGHT...SE WIND 25 KT. SEAS 9 FT. SNOW AND RAIN.
.SUN...SE WIND 20 KT. SEAS 7 FT.
.SUN NIGHT...S WIND 25 KT. SEAS 8 FT.
.MON...SE WIND 30 KT. SEAS 10 FT.
.TUE...E WIND 45 KT. SEAS 18 FT.
.WED...SE WIND 25 KT. SEAS 11 FT.

$$

PKZ138-210145-
SHELIKOF STRAIT-
337 AM AKST SAT FEB 20 2016

...STORM WARNING TODAY...

.TODAY...NE WIND 40 KT INCREASING TO 50 KT IN THE AFTERNOON. SEAS
18 FT. RAIN AND SNOW.
.TONIGHT...NE WIND 35 KT. SEAS 18 FT. SNOW AND RAIN.
.SUN...E WIND 30 KT BECOMING SE 20 KT IN THE AFTERNOON. SEAS 12 FT
SUBSIDING TO 4 FT IN THE AFTERNOON. RAIN AND SNOW.
.SUN NIGHT...SE WIND 25 KT. SEAS 6 FT.
.MON...SE WIND 30 KT. SEAS 10 FT.
.TUE...E WIND 45 KT. SEAS 17 FT.
.WED...E WIND 30 KT. SEAS 9 FT.

$$

PKZ139-210145-
COOK INLET KALGIN ISLAND TO POINT BEDE-
337 AM AKST SAT FEB 20 2016

...GALE WARNING TODAY...

.TODAY...NE WIND 30 KT INCREASING TO 45 KT IN THE AFTERNOON. SEAS
8 FT BUILDING TO 12 FT. SNOW AND RAIN. 
.TONIGHT...NE WIND 30 KT DIMINISHING TO 20 KT AFTER MIDNIGHT. SEAS
12 FT SUBSIDING TO 7 FT AFTER MIDNIGHT. SNOW AND RAIN. 
.SUN...NE WIND 20 KT BECOMING S IN THE AFTERNOON. SEAS 5 FT. SNOW
AND RAIN.
.SUN NIGHT...SE WIND 30 KT. SEAS 7 FT.
.MON...SE WIND 25 KT. SEAS 8 FT.
.TUE...NE WIND 40 KT. SEAS 11 FT.
.WED...NE WIND 30 KT. SEAS 9 FT.

$$

PKZ140-210145-
COOK INLET NORTH OF KALGIN ISLAND-
337 AM AKST SAT FEB 20 2016

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY THROUGH TONIGHT...

.TODAY...N WIND 30 KT. SEAS IN ICE FREE WATERS 4 FT. FREEZING
SPRAY. 
.TONIGHT...NE WIND 30 KT BECOMING N 20 KT AFTER MIDNIGHT. SEAS IN
ICE FREE WATERS 4 FT. SNOW. FREEZING SPRAY.
.SUN...N WIND 15 KT BECOMING SW IN THE AFTERNOON. SEAS IN ICE FREE
WATERS 3 FT. SNOW.
.SUN NIGHT...E WIND 15 KT. SEAS IN ICE FREE WATERS 3 FT.
.MON...E WIND 15 KT. SEAS IN ICE FREE WATERS 3 FT.
.TUE...N WIND 25 KT. SEAS IN ICE FREE WATERS 6 FT.
.WED...N WIND 20 KT. SEAS IN ICE FREE WATERS 6 FT.

$$

PKZ141-210145-
KACHEMAK BAY-
337 AM AKST SAT FEB 20 2016

...GALE WARNING TODAY...

.TODAY...NE WIND 15 KT INCREASING TO 35 KT IN THE AFTERNOON. SEAS
3 FT BUILDING TO 6 FT IN THE AFTERNOON. RAIN AND SNOW.
.TONIGHT...SE WIND 25 KT BECOMING E 10 KT AFTER MIDNIGHT. SEAS 5 FT
SUBSIDING TO 2 FT AFTER MIDNIGHT. SNOW WITH RAIN.
.SUN...NE WIND 10 KT. SEAS 2 FT. SNOW AND RAIN.
.SUN NIGHT...SE WIND 25 KT. SEAS 3 FT.
.MON...SE WIND 20 KT. SEAS 3 FT.
.TUE...NE WIND 35 KT. SEAS 7 FT.
.WED...E WIND 25 KT. SEAS 4 FT.

$$

038 
FZAK51 PAFC 210016
CWFAER

COASTAL WATERS FORECAST
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ANCHORAGE ALASKA
316 PM AKST SAT FEB 20 2016

COASTAL WATERS FORECAST FOR THE NORTHERN GULF OF ALASKA COAST
UP TO 100 NM OUT INCLUDING KODIAK ISLAND AND COOK INLET.

WIND FORECASTS REFLECT THE PREDOMINANT SPEED AND DIRECTION
EXPECTED. SEA FORECASTS REPRESENT AN AVERAGE OF THE HIGHEST
ONE-THIRD OF THE COMBINED WIND WAVE AND SWELL HEIGHT.

PKZ197-211300-
316 PM AKST SAT FEB 20 2016
.SYNOPSIS FOR THE NORTH GULF COAST+KODIAK ISLAND WATERS+
COOK INLET...
A 968 MB LOW 180 NM SOUTHEAST OF SITKINAK MOVES INTO BRISTOL BAY AT
980 MB SUN AFTERNOON...THEN DRIFTS INTO THE BERING. AN ASSOCIATED
FRONT OVER THE CENTRAL GULF MOVES TO THE NORTHERN GULF
TONIGHT...THEN STALLS ALONG THE NORTH GULF COAST. A 988 MB LOW 220
NM SOUTHEAST OF MIDDLETON ISLAND EARLY SUN MOVES MOVES INLAND NEAR
KALGIN ISLAND SUN AFTERNOON.

$$

PKZ119-211300-
CAPE SUCKLING TO CAPE CLEARE-
316 PM AKST SAT FEB 20 2016

...STORM WARNING THROUGH SUNDAY...

.TONIGHT...SE WIND 50 KT BECOMING S 30 KT AFTER MIDNIGHT. NEAR THE
COAST...E WIND 60 KT. SEAS 23 FT. RAIN.
.SUN...SE WIND 50 KT WITH GUSTS TO 65 KT BECOMING S 30 KT IN THE
AFTERNOON. SEAS 29 FT. RAIN.
.SUN NIGHT...S WIND 25 KT. SEAS 18 FT. RAIN.
.MON...S WIND 20 KT. SEAS 13 FT.
.MON NIGHT...SE WIND 35 KT. SEAS 10 FT.
.TUE...E WIND 50 KT. SEAS 29 FT.
.WED...SE WIND 40 KT. SEAS 24 FT.
.THU...SE WIND 30 KT. SEAS 18 FT.

$$

PKZ120-211300-
CAPE CLEARE TO GORE POINT-
316 PM AKST SAT FEB 20 2016

...GALE WARNING TONIGHT...

.TONIGHT...SE WIND 45 KT IN THE EVENING BECOMING VARIABLE 10 KT.
SEAS 18 FT SUBSIDING TO 13 FT AFTER MIDNIGHT. RAIN.
.SUN...VARIABLE WIND 10 KT BECOMING S 25 KT IN THE AFTERNOON. SEAS
18 FT. RAIN.
.SUN NIGHT...SE WIND 30 KT. SEAS 18 FT. RAIN.
.MON...S WIND 25 KT. SEAS 15 FT.
.MON NIGHT...SE WIND 40 KT. SEAS 11 FT.
.TUE...E WIND 50 KT. SEAS 29 FT.
.WED...SE WIND 35 KT. SEAS 24 FT.
.THU...E WIND 30 KT. SEAS 17 FT.

$$

PKZ121-211300-
RESURRECTION BAY-
316 PM AKST SAT FEB 20 2016

.TONIGHT...N WIND 10 KT WITH GUSTS TO 25 KT. SEAS 2 FT. HIGHER
WINDS AND SEAS S OF CAINES HEAD. RAIN AND SNOW.
.SUN...VARIABLE WIND LESS THAN 10 KT BECOMING S 15 KT IN THE
AFTERNOON. SEAS 3 FT. HIGHER SEAS S OF CAINES HEAD. RAIN AND SNOW.
.SUN NIGHT...S WIND 15 KT. SEAS 3 FT. HIGHER SEAS S OF CAINES
HEAD. SNOW AND RAIN.
.MON...S WIND 15 KT. SEAS 3 FT.
.MON NIGHT...N WIND 15 KT. SEAS 3 FT.
.TUE THROUGH WED...N WIND 30 KT. SEAS 6 FT.
.THU...N WIND 25 KT. SEAS 5 FT.

$$

PKZ125-211300-
PRINCE WILLIAM SOUND-
316 PM AKST SAT FEB 20 2016

...STORM WARNING THROUGH SUNDAY...

.TONIGHT...E WIND 35 KT INCREASING TO 50 KT WITH GUSTS TO 60 KTS BY
MIDNIGHT. SEAS 5 BUILDING TO 12 FT BY MIDNIGHT. RAIN.
.SUN...E WIND 50 WITH GUSTS TO 60 KT KT DIMINISHING TO 30 KT BY
LATE AFTERNOON. SEAS 13 FT SUBSIDING TO 6 FT BY LATE AFTERNOON.
RAIN.
.SUN NIGHT...SE WIND 15 KT INCREASING TO 25 KT AFTER MIDNIGHT.
SEAS 6 FT. RAIN.
.MON AND MON NIGHT...E WIND 20 KT. SEAS 4 FT.
.TUE...E WIND 25 KT. SEAS 6 FT.
.WED...E WIND 30 KT. SEAS 6 FT.
.THU...E WIND 20 KT. SEAS 4 FT.

$$

PKZ126-211300-
PORT VALDEZ-
316 PM AKST SAT FEB 20 2016

.TONIGHT...W WIND 10 KT. SEAS 2 FT. SNOW AND RAIN.
.SUN...W WIND 15 KT. SEAS 3 FT. RAIN AND SNOW.
.SUN NIGHT...E WIND 15 KT. SEAS 3 FT. SNOW.
.MON AND MON NIGHT...E WIND 10 KT. SEAS 2 FT.
.TUE THROUGH THU...NE WIND 10 KT. SEAS 2 FT.

$$

PKZ127-211300-
VALDEZ NARROWS-
316 PM AKST SAT FEB 20 2016

...GALE WARNING THROUGH SUNDAY...

.TONIGHT...NE WIND 35 KT. SEAS 4 FT. RAIN AND SNOW.
.SUN...NE WIND 40 KT DIMINISHING TO 30 KT IN THE AFTERNOON. SEAS
4 FT. RAIN AND SNOW.
.SUN NIGHT...SW WIND 10 KT. SEAS 2 FT. SNOW AND RAIN.
.MON...NE WIND 20 KT. SEAS 3 FT.
.MON NIGHT...NE WIND 15 KT. SEAS 3 FT.
.TUE...NE WIND 25 KT. SEAS 3 FT.
.WED...NE WIND 15 KT. SEAS 3 FT.
.THU...NE WIND 10 KT. SEAS 2 FT.

$$

PKZ128-211300-
VALDEZ ARM-
316 PM AKST SAT FEB 20 2016

...GALE WARNING SUNDAY...

.TONIGHT...E WIND 30 KT. SEAS 7 FT. RAIN.
.SUN...E WIND 35 KT. GUSTS TO 45 KT IN THE MORNING. SEAS 7 FT.
RAIN.
.SUN NIGHT...SE WIND 20 KT. SEAS 4 FT. RAIN AND SNOW.
.MON...NE WIND 15 KT. SEAS 3 FT.
.MON NIGHT...NE WIND 10 KT. SEAS 2 FT.
.TUE THROUGH THU...NE WIND 15 KT. SEAS 3 FT.

$$

PKZ129-211300-
PASSAGE CANAL-
316 PM AKST SAT FEB 20 2016

...GALE WARNING THROUGH SUNDAY...

.TONIGHT...E WIND 25 KT INCREASING TO 40 KT BEFORE MIDNIGHT. SEAS
4 FT INCREASING TO 6 FT BEFORE MIDNIGHT. RAIN AND SNOW.
.SUN...E WIND 40 KT DIMINISHING TO 30 KT IN THE LATE AFTERNOON.
GUSTS TO 55 KT IN THE MORNING. SEAS 6 FT. RAIN AND SNOW.
.SUN NIGHT...E WIND 15 KT. SEAS 2 FT. RAIN AND SNOW.
.MON...E WIND 15 KT. SEAS 2 FT.
.MON NIGHT...E WIND 10 KT. SEAS 2 FT.
.TUE...E WIND 25 KT. SEAS 4 FT.
.WED...E WIND 30 KT. SEAS 4 FT.
.THU...E WIND 25 KT. SEAS 4 FT.

$$

PKZ130-211300-
WEST OF BARREN ISLANDS INCLUDING KAMISHAK BAY-
316 PM AKST SAT FEB 20 2016

...GALE WARNING TONIGHT...

.TONIGHT...E WIND 45 KT WITH GUSTS TO 55 KT BECOMING SE 20 KT
AFTER MIDNIGHT. SEAS 20 FT SUBSIDING TO 6 FT AFTER MIDNIGHT. RAIN
AND SNOW.
.SUN...E WIND 25 KT. SEAS 7 FT. RAIN AND SNOW.
.SUN NIGHT...SE WIND 30 KT. SEAS 8 FT. RAIN.
.MON...S WIND 25 KT. SEAS 9 FT.
.MON NIGHT...SE WIND 40 KT. SEAS 16 FT.
.TUE...E WIND 50 KT. SEAS 24 FT.
.WED THROUGH THU...E WIND 30 KT. SEAS 9 FT.

$$

PKZ131-211300-
BARREN ISLANDS EAST-
316 PM AKST SAT FEB 20 2016

...STORM WARNING TONIGHT...

.TONIGHT...SE WIND 40 KT DIMINISHING TO 20 KT AFTER MIDNIGHT.
NEAR KENNEDY ENTRANCE...NE WIND 50 KT BECOMING SE 20 KT AFTER
MIDNIGHT. SEAS 13 FT.
.SUN...SE WIND 20 KT BECOMING S 30 KT IN THE AFTERNOON. SEAS 17
FT. RAIN.
.SUN NIGHT...S WIND 30 KT. SEAS 18 FT. RAIN.
.MON...S WIND 30 KT. SEAS 15 FT.
.MON NIGHT...SE WIND 45 KT. SEAS 11 FT.
.TUE...E WIND 50 KT. SEAS 27 FT.
.WED...SE WIND 40 KT. SEAS 24 FT.
.THU...E WIND 30 KT. SEAS 16 FT.

$$

PKZ132-211300-
MARMOT ISLAND TO SITKINAK-
316 PM AKST SAT FEB 20 2016

...GALE WARNING TONIGHT AND SUNDAY NIGHT...

.TONIGHT...SE WIND 40 KT...EXCEPT 25 KT N OF DANGEROUS CAPE. SEAS
19 FT EXCEPT 12 FT N OF DANGEROUS CAPE.
.SUN...SE WIND 30 KT. SEAS 17 FT. RAIN.
.SUN NIGHT...SW WIND 35 KT. SEAS 16 FT. RAIN.
.MON...S WIND 30 KT. SEAS 15 FT.
.MON NIGHT...E WIND 50 KT. SEAS 15 FT.
.TUE...E WIND 50 KT. SEAS 26 FT.
.WED...SE WIND 35 KT. SEAS 22 FT.
.THU...SE WIND 30 KT. SEAS 15 FT.

$$

PKZ136-211300-
CHINIAK BAY-
316 PM AKST SAT FEB 20 2016

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY THROUGH SUNDAY...

.TONIGHT...SE WIND 25 KT. SEAS 7 FT.
.SUN...SE WIND 25 KT. SEAS 9 FT. RAIN.
.SUN NIGHT...S WIND 20 KT. SEAS 7 FT.
.MON...S WIND 25 KT. SEAS 6 FT.
.MON NIGHT...SE WIND 40 KT. SEAS 9 FT.
.TUE...E WIND 45 KT. SEAS 14 FT.
.WED...SE WIND 30 KT. SEAS 12 FT.
.THU...E WIND 20 KT. SEAS 7 FT.

$$

PKZ137-211300-
MARMOT BAY-
316 PM AKST SAT FEB 20 2016

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY THROUGH SUNDAY...

.TONIGHT...SE WIND 25 KT. SEAS 7 FT.
.SUN...SE WIND 25 KT. SEAS 8 FT.
.SUN NIGHT...S WIND 20 KT. SEAS 7 FT.
.MON...S WIND 25 KT. SEAS 7 FT.
.MON NIGHT...SE WIND 40 KT. SEAS 12 FT.
.TUE...E WIND 45 KT. SEAS 16 FT.
.WED...SE WIND 30 KT. SEAS 12 FT.
.THU...E WIND 25 KT. SEAS 9 FT.

$$

PKZ138-211300-
SHELIKOF STRAIT-
316 PM AKST SAT FEB 20 2016

...GALE WARNING TONIGHT...

.TONIGHT...E WIND 30 KT INCREASING TO 40 KT AFTER MIDNIGHT. SEAS
7 FT. RAIN.
.SUN...SE WIND 30 KT DIMINISHING TO 20 KT IN THE AFTERNOON. SEAS
7 FT. RAIN.
.SUN NIGHT...SE WIND 20 KT. SEAS 5 FT. RAIN.
.MON...S WIND 25 KT. SEAS 8 FT.
.MON NIGHT...E WIND 35 KT. SEAS 12 FT.
.TUE...E WIND 40 KT. SEAS 16 FT.
.WED THROUGH THU...E WIND 30 KT. SEAS 9 FT.

$$

PKZ139-211300-
COOK INLET KALGIN ISLAND TO POINT BEDE-
316 PM AKST SAT FEB 20 2016

...GALE WARNING TONIGHT...

.TONIGHT...NE WIND 45 KT DIMINISHING TO 20 KT AFTER MIDNIGHT.
SEAS 14 FT SUBSIDING TO 7 FT AFTER MIDNIGHT. SNOW AND RAIN.
.SUN...NE WIND 20 KT. SEAS 7 FT SUBSIDING TO 3 FT IN THE
AFTERNOON. SNOW AND RAIN.
.SUN NIGHT...SE WIND 25 KT. SEAS 6 FT. RAIN AND SNOW.
.MON...SE WIND 25 KT. SEAS 8 FT.
.MON NIGHT...SE WIND 30 KT. SEAS 7 FT.
.TUE...NE WIND 40 KT. SEAS 14 FT.
.WED...NE WIND 30 KT. SEAS 8 FT.
.THU...NE WIND 25 KT. SEAS 6 FT.

$$

PKZ140-211300-
COOK INLET NORTH OF KALGIN ISLAND-
316 PM AKST SAT FEB 20 2016

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY TONIGHT...

.TONIGHT...NE WIND 30 KT BECOMING N 20 KT AFTER MIDNIGHT. SEAS IN
ICE FREE WATERS 13 FT SUBSIDING TO 6 FT AFTER MIDNIGHT. SNOW.
.SUN...N WIND 15 KT BECOMING S 10 KT IN THE AFTERNOON. SEAS IN ICE
FREE WATERS 4 FT. SNOW WITH RAIN.
.SUN NIGHT...E WIND 15 KT DIMINISHING TO 10 KT AFTER MIDNIGHT.
SEAS IN ICE FREE WATERS 3 FT.
.MON...E WIND 15 KT. SEAS IN ICE FREE WATERS 4 FT.
.MON NIGHT...E WIND 10 KT. SEAS IN ICE FREE WATERS 3 FT.
.TUE...N WIND 25 KT. SEAS IN ICE FREE WATERS 5 FT.
.WED THROUGH THU...N WIND 20 KT. SEAS IN ICE FREE WATERS 5 FT.

$$

PKZ141-211300-
KACHEMAK BAY-
316 PM AKST SAT FEB 20 2016

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY TONIGHT...

.TONIGHT...SE WIND 25 KT WITH GUSTS TO 35 KT BECOMING E 10 KT
AFTER MIDNIGHT. SEAS 5 FT SUBSIDING TO 2 FT AFTER MIDNIGHT. RAIN
WITH SNOW.
.SUN...E WIND 10 KT BECOMING SE 15 KT IN THE AFTERNOON. SEAS 2 FT.
SNOW AND RAIN.
.SUN NIGHT...SE WIND 20 KT. SEAS 3 FT. RAIN.
.MON...SE WIND 20 KT. SEAS 3 FT.
.MON NIGHT...SE WIND 30 KT. SEAS 5 FT.
.TUE...NE WIND 40 KT. SEAS 8 FT.
.WED...E WIND 20 KT. SEAS 4 FT.
.THU...E WIND 15 KT. SEAS 3 FT.

$$

468 
FZAK51 PAFC 210216 AAA
CWFAER

COASTAL WATERS FORECAST...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ANCHORAGE AK
516 PM AKST SAT FEB 20 2016

COASTAL WATERS FORECAST FOR THE NORTHERN GULF OF ALASKA COAST
UP TO 100 NM OUT INCLUDING KODIAK ISLAND AND COOK INLET.

WIND FORECASTS REFLECT THE PREDOMINANT SPEED AND DIRECTION
EXPECTED. SEA FORECASTS REPRESENT AN AVERAGE OF THE HIGHEST
ONE-THIRD OF THE COMBINED WIND WAVE AND SWELL HEIGHT.

PKZ197-211530-
516 PM AKST SAT FEB 20 2016
.SYNOPSIS FOR THE NORTH GULF COAST+KODIAK ISLAND WATERS+
COOK INLET...
A 968 MB LOW 180 NM SOUTHEAST OF SITKINAK MOVES INTO BRISTOL BAY AT
980 MB SUN AFTERNOON...THEN DRIFTS INTO THE BERING. AN ASSOCIATED
FRONT OVER THE CENTRAL GULF MOVES TO THE NORTHERN GULF
TONIGHT...THEN STALLS ALONG THE NORTH GULF COAST. A 988 MB LOW 220
NM SOUTHEAST OF MIDDLETON ISLAND EARLY SUN MOVES MOVES INLAND NEAR
KALGIN ISLAND SUN AFTERNOON.

$$

PKZ119-211530-
CAPE SUCKLING TO CAPE CLEARE-
516 PM AKST SAT FEB 20 2016

...STORM WARNING THROUGH SUNDAY...

.TONIGHT...SE WIND 50 KT. NEAR THE COAST...E WIND 60 KT. SEAS 25
FT. RAIN.
.SUN...SE WIND 50 KT WITH GUSTS TO 65 KT BECOMING S 30 KT IN THE
AFTERNOON. SEAS 29 FT. RAIN. 
.SUN NIGHT...S WIND 25 KT. SEAS 18 FT. RAIN. 
.MON...S WIND 20 KT. SEAS 13 FT. 
.MON NIGHT...SE WIND 35 KT. SEAS 10 FT. 
.TUE...E WIND 50 KT. SEAS 29 FT. 
.WED...SE WIND 40 KT. SEAS 24 FT. 
.THU...SE WIND 30 KT. SEAS 18 FT.

$$

PKZ120-211530-
CAPE CLEARE TO GORE POINT-
516 PM AKST SAT FEB 20 2016

...GALE WARNING TONIGHT...

.TONIGHT...SE WIND 45 KT IN THE EVENING BECOMING SOUTH 25 KT.
SEAS 18 FT SUBSIDING TO 13 FT AFTER MIDNIGHT. RAIN.
.SUN...VARIABLE WIND 10 KT BECOMING S 25 KT IN THE AFTERNOON.
SEAS 18 FT. RAIN. 
.SUN NIGHT...SE WIND 30 KT. SEAS 18 FT. RAIN. 
.MON...S WIND 25 KT. SEAS 15 FT. 
.MON NIGHT...SE WIND 40 KT. SEAS 11 FT. 
.TUE...E WIND 50 KT. SEAS 29 FT. 
.WED...SE WIND 35 KT. SEAS 24 FT. 
.THU...E WIND 30 KT. SEAS 17 FT.

$$

PKZ121-211530-
RESURRECTION BAY-
516 PM AKST SAT FEB 20 2016

.TONIGHT...N WIND 15 KT WITH GUSTS TO 30 KT. SEAS 3 FT. HIGHER
WINDS AND SEAS S OF CAINES HEAD. RAIN AND SNOW.
.SUN...VARIABLE WIND LESS THAN 10 KT BECOMING S 15 KT IN THE
AFTERNOON. SEAS 3 FT. HIGHER SEAS S OF CAINES HEAD. RAIN AND
SNOW. 
.SUN NIGHT...S WIND 15 KT. SEAS 3 FT. HIGHER SEAS S OF CAINES
HEAD. SNOW AND RAIN. 
.MON...S WIND 15 KT. SEAS 3 FT. 
.MON NIGHT...N WIND 15 KT. SEAS 3 FT. 
.TUE THROUGH WED...N WIND 30 KT. SEAS 6 FT. 
.THU...N WIND 25 KT. SEAS 5 FT.

$$

PKZ125-211530-
PRINCE WILLIAM SOUND-
516 PM AKST SAT FEB 20 2016

...STORM WARNING THROUGH SUNDAY...

.TONIGHT...E WIND 35 KT INCREASING TO 50 KT WITH GUSTS TO 60 KTS
BY MIDNIGHT. SEAS 5 BUILDING TO 12 FT BY MIDNIGHT. RAIN.
.SUN...E WIND 50 WITH GUSTS TO 60 KT KT DIMINISHING TO 30 KT BY
LATE AFTERNOON. SEAS 13 FT SUBSIDING TO 6 FT BY LATE AFTERNOON.
RAIN. 
.SUN NIGHT...SE WIND 15 KT INCREASING TO 25 KT AFTER MIDNIGHT.
SEAS 6 FT. RAIN. 
.MON AND MON NIGHT...E WIND 20 KT. SEAS 4 FT. 
.TUE...E WIND 25 KT. SEAS 6 FT. 
.WED...E WIND 30 KT. SEAS 6 FT. 
.THU...E WIND 20 KT. SEAS 4 FT.

$$

PKZ126-211530-
PORT VALDEZ-
516 PM AKST SAT FEB 20 2016

.TONIGHT...W WIND 10 KT. SEAS 2 FT. SNOW AND RAIN. 
.SUN...W WIND 15 KT. SEAS 3 FT. RAIN AND SNOW. 
.SUN NIGHT...E WIND 15 KT. SEAS 3 FT. SNOW. 
.MON AND MON NIGHT...E WIND 10 KT. SEAS 2 FT. 
.TUE THROUGH THU...NE WIND 10 KT. SEAS 2 FT.

$$

PKZ127-211530-
VALDEZ NARROWS-
516 PM AKST SAT FEB 20 2016

...GALE WARNING THROUGH SUNDAY...

.TONIGHT...NE WIND 35 KT. SEAS 4 FT. RAIN AND SNOW. 
.SUN...NE WIND 40 KT DIMINISHING TO 30 KT IN THE AFTERNOON. SEAS
4 FT. RAIN AND SNOW. 
.SUN NIGHT...SW WIND 10 KT. SEAS 2 FT. SNOW AND RAIN. 
.MON...NE WIND 20 KT. SEAS 3 FT. 
.MON NIGHT...NE WIND 15 KT. SEAS 3 FT. 
.TUE...NE WIND 25 KT. SEAS 3 FT. 
.WED...NE WIND 15 KT. SEAS 3 FT. 
.THU...NE WIND 10 KT. SEAS 2 FT.

$$

PKZ128-211530-
VALDEZ ARM-
516 PM AKST SAT FEB 20 2016

...GALE WARNING SUNDAY...

.TONIGHT...E WIND 30 KT. SEAS 7 FT. RAIN. 
.SUN...E WIND 35 KT. GUSTS TO 45 KT IN THE MORNING. SEAS 7 FT.
RAIN. 
.SUN NIGHT...SE WIND 20 KT. SEAS 4 FT. RAIN AND SNOW. 
.MON...NE WIND 15 KT. SEAS 3 FT. 
.MON NIGHT...NE WIND 10 KT. SEAS 2 FT. 
.TUE THROUGH THU...NE WIND 15 KT. SEAS 3 FT.

$$

PKZ129-211530-
PASSAGE CANAL-
516 PM AKST SAT FEB 20 2016

...GALE WARNING THROUGH SUNDAY...

.TONIGHT...E WIND 25 KT INCREASING TO 40 KT BEFORE MIDNIGHT. SEAS
4 FT INCREASING TO 6 FT BEFORE MIDNIGHT. RAIN AND SNOW. 
.SUN...E WIND 40 KT DIMINISHING TO 30 KT IN THE LATE AFTERNOON.
GUSTS TO 55 KT IN THE MORNING. SEAS 6 FT. RAIN AND SNOW. 
.SUN NIGHT...E WIND 15 KT. SEAS 2 FT. RAIN AND SNOW. 
.MON...E WIND 15 KT. SEAS 2 FT. 
.MON NIGHT...E WIND 10 KT. SEAS 2 FT. 
.TUE...E WIND 25 KT. SEAS 4 FT. 
.WED...E WIND 30 KT. SEAS 4 FT. 
.THU...E WIND 25 KT. SEAS 4 FT.

$$

PKZ130-211530-
WEST OF BARREN ISLANDS INCLUDING KAMISHAK BAY-
516 PM AKST SAT FEB 20 2016

...STORM WARNING TONIGHT...

.TONIGHT...E WIND 55 KT WITH GUSTS TO 65 KT BECOMING SE 30 KT
AFTER MIDNIGHT. SEAS 20 FT SUBSIDING TO 6 FT AFTER MIDNIGHT. RAIN
AND SNOW.
.SUN...E WIND 25 KT. SEAS 7 FT. RAIN AND SNOW. 
.SUN NIGHT...SE WIND 30 KT. SEAS 8 FT. RAIN. 
.MON...S WIND 25 KT. SEAS 9 FT. 
.MON NIGHT...SE WIND 40 KT. SEAS 16 FT. 
.TUE...E WIND 50 KT. SEAS 24 FT. 
.WED THROUGH THU...E WIND 30 KT. SEAS 9 FT.

$$

PKZ131-211530-
BARREN ISLANDS EAST-
516 PM AKST SAT FEB 20 2016

...STORM WARNING TONIGHT...

.TONIGHT...SE WIND 40 KT WITH GUSTS TO 50 KT DIMINISHING TO 30 KT
AFTER MIDNIGHT. NEAR KENNEDY ENTRANCE...NE WIND 50 KT WITH GUSTS
TO 60 KT BECOMING SE 20 KT AFTER MIDNIGHT. SEAS 13 FT.
.SUN...SE WIND 20 KT BECOMING S 30 KT IN THE AFTERNOON. SEAS
17 FT. RAIN. 
.SUN NIGHT...S WIND 30 KT. SEAS 18 FT. RAIN. 
.MON...S WIND 30 KT. SEAS 15 FT. 
.MON NIGHT...SE WIND 45 KT. SEAS 11 FT. 
.TUE...E WIND 50 KT. SEAS 27 FT. 
.WED...SE WIND 40 KT. SEAS 24 FT. 
.THU...E WIND 30 KT. SEAS 16 FT.

$$

PKZ132-211530-
MARMOT ISLAND TO SITKINAK-
516 PM AKST SAT FEB 20 2016

...GALE WARNING TONIGHT AND SUNDAY NIGHT...

.TONIGHT...SE WIND 40 KT...EXCEPT 25 KT N OF DANGEROUS CAPE. SEAS
19 FT EXCEPT 12 FT N OF DANGEROUS CAPE. 
.SUN...SE WIND 30 KT. SEAS 17 FT. RAIN. 
.SUN NIGHT...SW WIND 35 KT. SEAS 16 FT. RAIN. 
.MON...S WIND 30 KT. SEAS 15 FT. 
.MON NIGHT...E WIND 50 KT. SEAS 15 FT. 
.TUE...E WIND 50 KT. SEAS 26 FT. 
.WED...SE WIND 35 KT. SEAS 22 FT. 
.THU...SE WIND 30 KT. SEAS 15 FT.

$$

PKZ136-211530-
CHINIAK BAY-
516 PM AKST SAT FEB 20 2016

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY THROUGH SUNDAY...

.TONIGHT...SE WIND 25 KT. SEAS 7 FT. 
.SUN...SE WIND 25 KT. SEAS 9 FT. RAIN. 
.SUN NIGHT...S WIND 20 KT. SEAS 7 FT. 
.MON...S WIND 25 KT. SEAS 6 FT. 
.MON NIGHT...SE WIND 40 KT. SEAS 9 FT. 
.TUE...E WIND 45 KT. SEAS 14 FT. 
.WED...SE WIND 30 KT. SEAS 12 FT. 
.THU...E WIND 20 KT. SEAS 7 FT.

$$

PKZ137-211530-
MARMOT BAY-
516 PM AKST SAT FEB 20 2016

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY THROUGH SUNDAY...

.TONIGHT...SE WIND 25 KT. SEAS 7 FT. 
.SUN...SE WIND 25 KT. SEAS 8 FT. 
.SUN NIGHT...S WIND 20 KT. SEAS 7 FT. 
.MON...S WIND 25 KT. SEAS 7 FT. 
.MON NIGHT...SE WIND 40 KT. SEAS 12 FT. 
.TUE...E WIND 45 KT. SEAS 16 FT. 
.WED...SE WIND 30 KT. SEAS 12 FT. 
.THU...E WIND 25 KT. SEAS 9 FT.

$$

PKZ138-211530-
SHELIKOF STRAIT-
516 PM AKST SAT FEB 20 2016

...GALE WARNING TONIGHT...

.TONIGHT...E WIND 30 KT INCREASING TO 40 KT AFTER MIDNIGHT. SEAS
7 FT. RAIN. 
.SUN...SE WIND 30 KT DIMINISHING TO 20 KT IN THE AFTERNOON. SEAS
7 FT. RAIN. 
.SUN NIGHT...SE WIND 20 KT. SEAS 5 FT. RAIN. 
.MON...S WIND 25 KT. SEAS 8 FT. 
.MON NIGHT...E WIND 35 KT. SEAS 12 FT. 
.TUE...E WIND 40 KT. SEAS 16 FT. 
.WED THROUGH THU...E WIND 30 KT. SEAS 9 FT.

$$

PKZ139-211530-
COOK INLET KALGIN ISLAND TO POINT BEDE-
516 PM AKST SAT FEB 20 2016

...GALE WARNING TONIGHT...

.TONIGHT...NE WIND 45 KT DIMINISHING TO 20 KT AFTER MIDNIGHT.
SEAS 14 FT SUBSIDING TO 7 FT AFTER MIDNIGHT. SNOW AND RAIN. 
.SUN...NE WIND 20 KT. SEAS 7 FT SUBSIDING TO 3 FT IN THE
AFTERNOON. SNOW AND RAIN. 
.SUN NIGHT...SE WIND 25 KT. SEAS 6 FT. RAIN AND SNOW. 
.MON...SE WIND 25 KT. SEAS 8 FT. 
.MON NIGHT...SE WIND 30 KT. SEAS 7 FT. 
.TUE...NE WIND 40 KT. SEAS 14 FT. 
.WED...NE WIND 30 KT. SEAS 8 FT. 
.THU...NE WIND 25 KT. SEAS 6 FT.

$$

PKZ140-211530-
COOK INLET NORTH OF KALGIN ISLAND-
516 PM AKST SAT FEB 20 2016

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY TONIGHT...

.TONIGHT...NE WIND 30 KT BECOMING N 20 KT AFTER MIDNIGHT. SEAS IN
ICE FREE WATERS 13 FT SUBSIDING TO 6 FT AFTER MIDNIGHT. SNOW. 
.SUN...N WIND 15 KT BECOMING S 10 KT IN THE AFTERNOON. SEAS IN
ICE FREE WATERS 4 FT. SNOW WITH RAIN. 
.SUN NIGHT...E WIND 15 KT DIMINISHING TO 10 KT AFTER MIDNIGHT.
SEAS IN ICE FREE WATERS 3 FT. 
.MON...E WIND 15 KT. SEAS IN ICE FREE WATERS 4 FT. 
.MON NIGHT...E WIND 10 KT. SEAS IN ICE FREE WATERS 3 FT. 
.TUE...N WIND 25 KT. SEAS IN ICE FREE WATERS 5 FT. 
.WED THROUGH THU...N WIND 20 KT. SEAS IN ICE FREE WATERS 5 FT.

$$

PKZ141-211530-
KACHEMAK BAY-
516 PM AKST SAT FEB 20 2016

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY TONIGHT...

.TONIGHT...SE WIND 25 KT WITH GUSTS TO 35 KT BECOMING E 10 KT
AFTER MIDNIGHT. SEAS 5 FT SUBSIDING TO 2 FT AFTER MIDNIGHT. RAIN
WITH SNOW. 
.SUN...E WIND 10 KT BECOMING SE 15 KT IN THE AFTERNOON. SEAS
2 FT. SNOW AND RAIN. 
.SUN NIGHT...SE WIND 20 KT. SEAS 3 FT. RAIN. 
.MON...SE WIND 20 KT. SEAS 3 FT. 
.MON NIGHT...SE WIND 30 KT. SEAS 5 FT. 
.TUE...NE WIND 40 KT. SEAS 8 FT. 
.WED...E WIND 20 KT. SEAS 4 FT. 
.THU...E WIND 15 KT. SEAS 3 FT.

$$

524 
FZAK51 PAFC 211251
CWFAER

COASTAL WATERS FORECAST
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ANCHORAGE ALASKA
351 AM AKST SUN FEB 21 2016

COASTAL WATERS FORECAST FOR THE NORTHERN GULF OF ALASKA COAST
UP TO 100 NM OUT INCLUDING KODIAK ISLAND AND COOK INLET.

WIND FORECASTS REFLECT THE PREDOMINANT SPEED AND DIRECTION
EXPECTED. SEA FORECASTS REPRESENT AN AVERAGE OF THE HIGHEST
ONE-THIRD OF THE COMBINED WIND WAVE AND SWELL HEIGHT.

PKZ197-220200-
351 AM AKST SUN FEB 21 2016
.SYNOPSIS FOR THE NORTH GULF COAST+KODIAK ISLAND WATERS+
COOK INLET...
A 989 MB LOW 225 NM SOUTH OF YAKUTAT BECOMES A TROUGH OF LOW
PRESSURE NEAR SEWARD LATE THIS MORNING. AN ASSOCIATED FRONT ALONG
THE NORTH GULF COAST MOVES INLAND AND DISSIPATES BY AFTERNOON.
ANOTHER FRONT OVER THE SOUTHWEST GULF MOVES TO THE NORTHERN GULF
LATE TONIGHT...THEN DISSIPATES. A STRONG FRONT APPROACHES THE
SOUTHERN GULF LATE MON NIGHT.

$$

PKZ119-220200-
CAPE SUCKLING TO CAPE CLEARE-
351 AM AKST SUN FEB 21 2016

...STORM WARNING TODAY...

.TODAY...E WIND 55 KT BECOMING S 35 KT IN THE AFTERNOON. SEAS 29
FT SUBSIDING TO 23 FT IN THE AFTERNOON. RAIN.
.TONIGHT...S WIND 30 KT. SEAS 19 FT. RAIN.
.MON...S WIND 25 KT. SEAS 14 FT. RAIN SHOWERS.
.MON NIGHT...SE WIND 35 KT. SEAS 11 FT.
.TUE...E WIND 45 KT. SEAS 28 FT.
.WED...SE WIND 40 KT. SEAS 25 FT.
.THU...SE WIND 30 KT. SEAS 17 FT.

$$

PKZ120-220200-
CAPE CLEARE TO GORE POINT-
351 AM AKST SUN FEB 21 2016

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY THROUGH MONDAY...

.TODAY...WINDS BECOMING SW 25 KT. SEAS 19 FT. RAIN.
.TONIGHT...S WIND 25 KT. SEAS 19 FT. RAIN SHOWERS.
.MON...S WIND 25 KT. SEAS 15 FT. RAIN SHOWERS.
.MON NIGHT...SE WIND 40 KT. SEAS 11 FT.
.TUE...E WIND 45 KT. SEAS 30 FT.
.WED...SE WIND 35 KT. SEAS 24 FT.
.THU...E WIND 30 KT. SEAS 16 FT.

$$

PKZ121-220200-
RESURRECTION BAY-
351 AM AKST SUN FEB 21 2016

.TODAY...N WIND 10 KT BECOMING S 15 KT IN THE AFTERNOON. SEAS 3 FT.
HIGHER SEAS S OF CAINES HEAD. RAIN AND SNOW.
.TONIGHT...S WIND 20 KT. SEAS 4 FT. HIGHER SEAS S OF CAINES HEAD.
RAIN SHOWERS AND SNOW SHOWERS.
.MON...S WIND 15 KT. SEAS 3 FT. HIGHER SEAS S OF CAINES HEAD. RAIN
SHOWERS AND SNOW SHOWERS.
.MON NIGHT...N WIND 15 KT. SEAS 3 FT.
.TUE THROUGH WED...N WIND 30 KT. SEAS 6 FT.
.THU...N WIND 25 KT. SEAS 5 FT.

$$

PKZ125-220200-
PRINCE WILLIAM SOUND-
351 AM AKST SUN FEB 21 2016

...STORM WARNING TODAY...

.TODAY...E WIND 50 KT BECOMING SE 35 KT IN THE AFTERNOON. SEAS 13
FT SUBSIDING TO 10 FT THIS AFTERNOON. RAIN.
.TONIGHT...SE WIND 25 KT. SEAS 6 FT. RAIN SHOWERS.
.MON...SE WIND 25 KT DIMINISHING TO 15 KT. SEAS 6 FT SUBSIDING TO
4 FT IN THE AFTERNOON. RAIN SHOWERS.
.MON NIGHT...E WIND 20 KT. SEAS 4 FT.
.TUE...E WIND 30 KT. SEAS 6 FT.
.WED...E WIND 25 KT. SEAS 6 FT.
.THU...E WIND 20 KT. SEAS 4 FT.

$$

PKZ126-220200-
PORT VALDEZ-
351 AM AKST SUN FEB 21 2016

.TODAY...VARIABLE WIND 10 KT BECOMING SE 15 KT IN THE AFTERNOON. SEAS
3 FT. RAIN AND SNOW.
.TONIGHT...E WIND 10 KT INCREASING TO 15 KT AFTER MIDNIGHT. SEAS 3 FT.
RAIN AND SNOW SHOWERS.
.MON...E WIND 10 KT. SEAS 2 FT. RAIN AND SNOW SHOWERS.
.MON NIGHT...E WIND 10 KT. SEAS 2 FT.
.TUE THROUGH THU...NE WIND 10 KT. SEAS 2 FT.

$$

PKZ127-220200-
VALDEZ NARROWS-
351 AM AKST SUN FEB 21 2016

...GALE WARNING TODAY...

.TODAY...NE WIND 35 KT DIMINISHING TO 20 KT LATE THIS AFTERNOON.
SEAS 4 FT. RAIN AND SNOW.
.TONIGHT...SE WIND 15 KT BECOMING NE AFTER MIDNIGHT. SEAS 3 FT.
SNOW SHOWERS AND RAIN SHOWERS.
.MON...NE WIND 20 KT. SEAS 3 FT. RAIN AND SNOW SHOWERS. 
.MON NIGHT...NE WIND 15 KT. SEAS 3 FT.
.TUE...NE WIND 25 KT. SEAS 3 FT.
.WED...NE WIND 15 KT. SEAS 3 FT.
.THU...NE WIND 10 KT. SEAS 2 FT.

$$

PKZ128-220200-
VALDEZ ARM-
351 AM AKST SUN FEB 21 2016

...GALE WARNING TODAY...

.TODAY...E WIND 35 KT DIMINISHING TO 25 KT THIS AFTERNOON. SEAS 7
FT. RAIN AND SNOW.
.TONIGHT...SW WIND 20 KT. SEAS 4 FT. RAIN SHOWERS.
.MON...NE WIND 20 KT. SEAS 4 FT. RAIN AND SNOW SHOWERS.
.MON NIGHT...NE WIND 10 KT. SEAS 2 FT.
.TUE THROUGH THU...NE WIND 15 KT. SEAS 3 FT.

$$

PKZ129-220200-
PASSAGE CANAL-
351 AM AKST SUN FEB 21 2016

...GALE WARNING TODAY...

.TODAY...E WIND INCREASING TO 35 KT THIS MORNING...THEN
DIMINISHING TO 25 KT THIS AFTERNOON. SEAS 5 FT. RAIN AND SNOW.
.TONIGHT...E WIND 20 KT. SEAS 3 FT. SNOW AND RAIN SHOWERS.
.MON...E WIND 20 KT. SEAS 3 FT. SNOW AND RAIN SHOWERS.
.MON NIGHT...E WIND 10 KT. SEAS 2 FT.
.TUE...E WIND 25 KT. SEAS 4 FT.
.WED...E WIND 30 KT. SEAS 4 FT.
.THU...E WIND 25 KT. SEAS 4 FT.

$$

PKZ130-220200-
WEST OF BARREN ISLANDS INCLUDING KAMISHAK BAY-
351 AM AKST SUN FEB 21 2016

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY THROUGH MONDAY...

.TODAY...NE WIND 30 KT BECOMING SE 25 KT THIS AFTERNOON. SEAS 9 FT.
RAIN AND SNOW.
.TONIGHT...SE WIND 30 KT. SEAS 9 FT.
.MON...S WIND 25 KT. SEAS 9 FT. RAIN SHOWERS.
.MON NIGHT...SE WIND 35 KT. SEAS 15 FT.
.TUE...E WIND 50 KT. SEAS 22 FT.
.WED...E WIND 35 KT. SEAS 13 FT.
.THU...E WIND 30 KT. SEAS 10 FT.

$$

PKZ131-220200-
BARREN ISLANDS EAST-
351 AM AKST SUN FEB 21 2016

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY THROUGH MONDAY...

.TODAY...S WIND 20 KT INCREASING TO 30 KT IN THE AFTERNOON. SEAS
17 FT. RAIN.
.TONIGHT...S WIND 30 KT. SEAS 17 FT. RAIN SHOWERS.
.MON...S WIND 30 KT. SEAS 15 FT. RAIN SHOWERS.
.MON NIGHT...SE WIND 45 KT. SEAS 12 FT.
.TUE...E WIND 50 KT. SEAS 30 FT.
.WED...SE WIND 40 KT. SEAS 24 FT.
.THU...E WIND 30 KT. SEAS 15 FT.

$$

PKZ132-220200-
MARMOT ISLAND TO SITKINAK-
351 AM AKST SUN FEB 21 2016

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY THROUGH MONDAY...

.TODAY...SE WIND 30 KT. SEAS 16 FT. RAIN.
.TONIGHT...S WIND 30 KT. SEAS 16 FT. RAIN SHOWERS.
.MON...SW WIND 30 KT. SEAS 15 FT. RAIN SHOWERS.
.MON NIGHT...E WIND 50 KT. SEAS 16 FT.
.TUE...E WIND 50 KT. SEAS 30 FT.
.WED...SE WIND 40 KT. SEAS 24 FT.
.THU...SE WIND 30 KT. SEAS 15 FT.

$$

PKZ136-220200-
CHINIAK BAY-
351 AM AKST SUN FEB 21 2016

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY THROUGH MONDAY...

.TODAY...S WIND 25 KT. SEAS 8 FT. RAIN.
.TONIGHT...S WIND 25 KT. SEAS 7 FT.
.MON...S WIND 25 KT. SEAS 6 FT.
.MON NIGHT...SE WIND 40 KT. SEAS 10 FT.
.TUE...E WIND 45 KT. SEAS 17 FT.
.WED...SE WIND 30 KT. SEAS 12 FT.
.THU...E WIND 20 KT. SEAS 7 FT.

$$

PKZ137-220200-
MARMOT BAY-
351 AM AKST SUN FEB 21 2016

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY THROUGH TONIGHT...

.TODAY...SE WIND 25 KT. SEAS 9 FT.
.TONIGHT...SE WIND 25 KT. SEAS 8 FT.
.MON...S WIND 20 KT. SEAS 6 FT.
.MON NIGHT...SE WIND 40 KT. SEAS 14 FT.
.TUE...E WIND 45 KT. SEAS 18 FT.
.WED...SE WIND 35 KT. SEAS 13 FT.
.THU...E WIND 25 KT. SEAS 8 FT.

$$

PKZ138-220200-
SHELIKOF STRAIT-
351 AM AKST SUN FEB 21 2016

...GALE WARNING TODAY...

.TODAY...NE WIND 35 KT BECOMING SE 20 KT IN THE AFTERNOON. SEAS 13
FT SUBSIDING TO 7 FT. RAIN.
.TONIGHT...SE WIND 20 KT. SEAS 7 FT.
.MON...S WIND 25 KT. SEAS 8 FT.
.MON NIGHT...E WIND 35 KT. SEAS 12 FT.
.TUE...E WIND 45 KT. SEAS 18 FT.
.WED THROUGH THU...E WIND 30 KT. SEAS 10 FT.

$$

PKZ139-220200-
COOK INLET KALGIN ISLAND TO POINT BEDE-
351 AM AKST SUN FEB 21 2016

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY TONIGHT AND MONDAY...

.TODAY...NE WIND 20 KT BECOMING SE 15 KT IN THE AFTERNOON. SEAS 5
FT SUBSIDING. SNOW WITH RAIN.
.TONIGHT...SE WIND 25 KT. SEAS 7 FT. SNOW SHOWERS AND RAIN
SHOWERS.
.MON...S WIND 25 KT. SEAS 8 FT. RAIN SHOWERS.
.MON NIGHT...SE WIND 30 KT. SEAS 7 FT.
.TUE...NE WIND 35 KT. SEAS 12 FT.
.WED THROUGH THU...NE WIND 25 KT. SEAS 9 FT.

$$

PKZ140-220200-
COOK INLET NORTH OF KALGIN ISLAND-
351 AM AKST SUN FEB 21 2016

.TODAY...N WIND 20 KT BECOMING SE 15 KT IN THE AFTERNOON. SEAS IN
ICE FREE WATERS 3 FT. SNOW AND RAIN.
.TONIGHT...SE WIND 15 KT. SEAS IN ICE FREE WATERS 3 FT.
.MON...E WIND 15 KT. SEAS IN ICE FREE WATERS 4 FT. RAIN SHOWERS
AND SNOW SHOWERS.
.MON NIGHT...E WIND 10 KT. SEAS IN ICE FREE WATERS 3 FT.
.TUE...N WIND 25 KT. SEAS IN ICE FREE WATERS 4 FT.
.WED THROUGH THU...N WIND 20 KT. SEAS IN ICE FREE WATERS 4 FT.

$$

PKZ141-220200-
KACHEMAK BAY-
351 AM AKST SUN FEB 21 2016

.TODAY...NE WIND 10 KT BECOMING SE 15 KT IN THE AFTERNOON. SEAS
2 FT. SNOW AND RAIN.
.TONIGHT...SE WIND 20 KT. SEAS 3 FT. SNOW SHOWERS AND RAIN
SHOWERS.
.MON...S WIND 20 KT. SEAS 3 FT. RAIN SHOWERS.
.MON NIGHT...SE WIND 30 KT. SEAS 5 FT.
.TUE...E WIND 40 KT. SEAS 7 FT.
.WED...E WIND 20 KT. SEAS 4 FT.
.THU...E WIND 15 KT. SEAS 3 FT.

$$

SOUTHCENTRAL AND SOUTHWEST ALASKA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ANCHORAGE AK
545 AM AKST FRI FEB 19 2016

.ANALYSIS AND UPPER LEVELS...

VERY ACTIVE WEATHER IS AFFECTING MANY PORTIONS OF SOUTHERN ALASKA
THIS MORNING. COMPARATIVELY SPEAKING...THE EAST SIDE IS THE LEAST
SO. A VERTICALLY STACKED LOW OVER THE SOUTHWESTERN GULF HAS BEEN
DRIFTING SOUTHWARD...LARGELY ENDING MUCH OF THE PRECIPITATION
EXCEPT OVER PORTIONS OF SOUTHEASTERN KODIAK ISLAND. VERY LIGHT
NORTHERLY WINDS BEING DRAWN INTO THIS LOW PERSIST THROUGH THE COOK
INLET REGION...INCLUDING ANCHORAGE. THE LATEST ACARS SOUNDINGS
SHOW SOME COOLING OF THE LOWEST LEVELS...BUT THE WINDS ARE TOO
LIGHT TO LEAD TO MUCH DOWNSLOPING. WITH ONLY SOME REMNANT HIGH
CLOUDS...TEMPERATURES HAVE LARGELY FALLEN INTO THE TEENS ACROSS
MOST OF THE COOK INLET REGION. FOR ANCHORAGE...THIS IS THE THIRD
STRAIGHT NIGHT WITH TEENS FOR TEMPERATURES.

ACROSS SOUTHWEST ALASKA...SURFACE RIDGING IS MAKING LIGHT NORTH TO
NORTHEAST WINDS THE NORM. REMNANT CLOUD COVER FROM THE PRECIPITATION
EVENT OF THE PAST COUPLE DAYS HAS HELPED TO KEEP FOG FORMATION
FROM IMPACTING THE BRISTOL BAY REGION. HOWEVER DUE TO CLEAR
SKIES...THE SAME CANNOT BE SAID FOR THE KUSKOKWIM DELTA. THE DELTA
HAS BEEN SOCKED IN OCCASIONALLY DENSE FREEZING FOG FOR MOST OF THE
DAY YESTERDAY THROUGH THE OVERNIGHT LAST NIGHT. THE 00Z BETHEL
SOUNDING SHOWS WHY...A STRONG INVERSION FROM THE SURFACE THROUGH
MOST OF THE LOWEST 100 MB OF THE ATMOSPHERE HAS TRAPPED NEARLY
SATURATED AIR IN THE LOWEST FEW HUNDRED FEET OF THE ATMOSPHERE.
INCREASING WINDS IN THE LOWEST LEVELS OVER THE PAST SEVERAL HOURS
HAVE FINALLY ALLOWED SOME DRIER AIR TO WORK IN AS VISIBILITIES
BEGAN IMPROVING LAST NIGHT.

FOR THE BERING/ALEUTIANS: THE MOST ACTIVE WEATHER IS OCCURRING
ACROSS THE BERING AND ALEUTIANS THIS MORNING. AN ACERBIC TROUGH
LOCATED JUST WEST OF THE PRIBILOF ISLANDS HAS BEEN CAUSING SNOW
THROUGHOUT THE AFTERNOON AND EVENING YESTERDAY ON THE ISLANDS.
HOWEVER...WITH STRONG SOUTHEAST FLOW...TEMPERATURES HAVE REMAINED
ABOVE FREEZING IN BOTH THE ISLANDS. HOWEVER WITH THE SHARP TROUGH
BEING SO CLOSE...ANY EASTWARD DRIFT COULD BRING THE STRONG
NORTHERLY WINDS LURKING WEST OF THE TROUGH BACK TO THE
ISLANDS...WHICH IN TURN COULD MAKE FOR RAPIDLY DETERIORATING
CONDITIONS...A WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY REMAINS IN EFFECT.

FURTHER SOUTH...A LOW EMBEDDED WITHIN THE TROUGH IS MOVING ACROSS
THE EASTERN ALEUTIANS...ONCE IT PASSES SOUTH OF THE ISLANDS THIS
MORNING...BLIZZARD CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED NEAR NIKOLSKI. A STRONG
LOW OVER THE NORTHWEST BERING IS DRIFTING BACK TOWARDS THE
NORTHERN KAMCHATKA PENINSULA...BUT STRONG WINDS AND ROUGH SEAS
ACROSS THE WESTERN BERING CONTINUE THIS MORNING.

LAST BUT NOT LEAST...BETWEEN THE LOW OVER THE NORTHWEST BERING AND
A HIGH OVER THE SUBTROPICS... UNSTABLE CUMULUS IS RACING EASTWARD
WITH THE LATEST ARCTIC INTRUSION OVER THE WESTERN ALEUTIANS. THE
SUBTROPICAL JET IS CAUSING THE RAPID MOVEMENT OF THE COLDER AIR
OVER THE ALEUTIANS AND NORTH PACIFIC. THE LEADING EDGE OF THE JET
NORTH OF 40N IS PUSHING A DISTURBANCE OVER THE NORTHEAST PACIFIC.

THIS DISTURBANCE WILL TURN SHARPLY NORTHWARD OVER THE NEXT 24
HOURS AND WILL BE THE CAUSE OF THIS WEEKENDS ACTIVE WEATHER IN
SOUTHCENTRAL.

&&

.MODEL DISCUSSION...

MODEL VARIABILITY AND INCONSISTENCY FOR SOUTHERN ALASKA HAS BEEN
PARTICULARLY NOTABLE WITH THIS LATEST ROUND OF FORECAST MODEL
RUNS. FOR CONSISTENCYS SAKE...NONE OF THE MODELS ALONE WERE
ESPECIALLY PREFERRED AND RELATIVELY FEW CHANGES WERE MADE BEYOND
36 HOURS. WHILE THERE IS GENERAL AGREEMENT BETWEEN THE MODELS ON
THE MOVEMENT AND INTENSITY OF THE LARGE-SCALE FEATURES SHORT-
TERM...THE CAUSES FOR THE ACTIVE WEATHER IN THE FORECAST WILL ALL
BE ON THE MESOSCALE...FOR WHICH THE MODELS ARE HIGHLY VARIABLE.

FOR THE ONGOING BLIZZARD WARNING...THE AREAS THAT EXPERIENCE THE
WORST OF THE BLIZZARD CONDITIONS WILL BE DETERMINED BY WHERE
EXACTLY A BAND THAT IS ONLY ABOUT 10-20 MILES WIDE SETS UP. DUE TO
A LACK OF OBSERVATIONS ANYWHERE NEAR NIKOLSKI...THE MODELS DO
THEIR BEST WITH THE INFORMATION THEY ARE GIVEN. AS SUCH...WHILE
CONFIDENCE IS HIGH FOR BLIZZARD CONDITIONS OCCURRING...WHERE THEY
ARE EXPECTED REMAINS VERY UNCERTAIN. THE ONGOING FORECAST FOR
NIKOLSKI WESTWARD REMAINS THE BEST FORECAST THIS MORNING. AS THE
STRONG LOW OVER THE NORTHWEST BERING DRIFTS NORTHWESTWARD AND THE
LOW OVER THE EASTERN ALEUTIANS MOVES SOUTHEASTWARD...A RESULTING DEFORMATION
BAND AND TRAILING TROUGH WILL BE THE FOCUS FOR THE BLIZZARD
CONDITIONS...AND THIS IS HIGHLY DEPENDENT ON HOW QUICKLY THOSE
FEATURES MOVE. A FEW MILES SEPARATION BETWEEN THE MODEL GUIDANCE
MAKES THE DIFFERENCE BETWEEN HOURS OF BLIZZARD CONDITIONS AND
SCATTERED SNOW SHOWERS.

FOR THIS WEEKENDS POTENTIAL WINTER EVENT IN SOUTHCENTRAL...THE EC
HAS BEEN THE MOST CONSISTENT RUN TO RUN...BUT THE NAM AND GFS ARE
IN BETTER AGREEMENT WITH BOTH EACH OTHER AND THE CURRENT FORECAST.
THE LARGE DISCREPANCIES BETWEEN THE MODELS REMAIN THIS
MORNING...AND THIS PART OF THE FORECAST REMAINS ESPECIALLY LOW
CONFIDENCE. THE NAM AND GFS ARE THE PESSIMISTIC MODELS...LARGELY
FORECASTING DOWNSLOPING AND WARM TEMPERATURES. THE EC IS VERY
OPTIMISTIC IN TERMS OF PRECIPITATION AMOUNTS...THOUGH PRECIPITATION
TYPE ISSUES WOULD REMAIN EVEN IF IT WERE TO VERIFY VERBATIM. ONE
OF THE THINGS THE MODELS LARGELY AGREE ON IS THAT SIMILAR TO MUCH
OF THE WINTER SO FAR...THE DISTURBANCE COMING FROM THE SOUTHEAST
WILL BRING WARM AIR ALONG WITH THE SUPERABUNDANT MOISTURE. STAY
TUNED FOR MORE UPDATES.

&&

.SHORT TERM FORECAST SOUTHCENTRAL ALASKA (DAYS 1 AND 2)...

THE PRIMARY LOW PRESSURE COMPLEX WILL REMAIN SOUTH OF KODIAK ISLAND
THROUGH SAT NIGHT. A SERIES OF OF FRONTAL TROUGHS ASSOCIATED WITH
THIS LOW COMPLEX WILL MOVE NORTH ACROSS THE GULF BRINGING PERIODS
OF GALES...ESPECIALLY WITH THE SECOND FRONT SAT/SAT NIGHT.
PRESSURE GRADIENTS ASSOCIATED WITH THESE FEATURES WILL ALSO
PRODUCE BRISK GAP WINDS THROUGH FAVORED LOCALS (TURNAGAIN
ARM/PORTAGE VALLEY/MAT VALLEY). PRECIPITATION WITH THESE FRONTAL
FEATURES WILL LARGELY IMPACT THE GULF COAST ESPECIALLY WITH THE
FIRST OF THE TWO FRONTS TO MOVE INTO THE NORTHERN GULF TONIGHT.
SOME SPILL OVER SNOW WILL BE LIKELY ACROSS THE CHUGACH SAT NIGHT
WITH THE SECOND FRONT. PRECIPITATION WILL REMAIN SNOW INLAND
AREAS OF WITH A MIXTURE ALONG THE COASTS.

&&

.SHORT TERM FORECAST SOUTHWEST ALASKA (DAYS 1 AND 2)...
LOW CLOUDS AND STRATUS OVER TO KUSKOKWIM DELTA WILL CONTINUE TO
DIMINISH THIS MORNING AS OFFSHORE FLOW CONTINUES TO INCREASE. WITH
THIS EXCEPTION OF THIS FOG/STRATUS...THE WEATHER THROUGHOUT THE
SOUTHWEST SHOULD REMAIN QUIET WITH OFFSHORE FLOW AND PARTLY CLOUDY
SKIES. CLOUD COVER WILL THEN RETURN TO THE AREA THIS EVENING A
LOW APPROACHING KODIAK ISLAND BRINGS A RAIN AND SNOW TO BRISTOL
BAY INTO SATURDAY. THIS LOW WILL ALSO BRING GUSTY WINDS ALONG THE
ALEUTIAN/ALASKA RANGES THROUGH SATURDAY...THOUGH THESE SHOULD NOT
REACH ADVISORY CRITERIA.

&&

.SHORT TERM FORECAST BERING SEA/ALEUTIANS (DAYS 1 AND 2)...
THE MAIN FOCUS OVER THE BERING SEA CONTINUES TO BE CENTERED AROUND
THE DEFORMATION BAND THAT STRETCHES FROM JUST WEST OF THE
PRIBILOFS INTO THE EASTERN ALEUTIANS. OVERNIGHT THIS BAND SETUP
SLIGHTLY FURTHER TO THE WEST OF THE PRIBILOF ISLANDS THAN
EXPECTED...PREVENTING THE HEAVIEST SNOWFALL FROM FALLING OVER THE
ISLANDS. AS A RESULT THE SNOW ADVISORY FOR THAT AREA WAS
CANCELLED OVERNIGHT AS ANY SNOWFALL THAT DOES FALL TODAY SHOULD BE
LIGHT. TO THE SOUTH...BLIZZARD CONDITIONS ARE STILL EXPECTED ALONG
THE SOUTHERN EDGE OF THE DEFORMATION BAND FOR THE NIKOLSKI AREA
THIS MORNING. WINDS AT NIKOLSKI HAVE BEGUN TO SHIFT TO THE
NORTHWEST AND ARE EXPECTED TO INCREASE DRAMATICALLY OVER THE
COURSE OF THIS MORNING AS HEAVY SNOWFALL AND BLIZZARD CONDITIONS
BEGIN. THERE IS NOW VERY GOOD CONFIDENCE THAT BLIZZARD CONDITIONS
WILL NOT REACH UNALASKA AS WINDS AND SNOWFALL WILL REMAIN MUCH
LIGHTER WITH TEMPERATURES ABOVE FREEZING. INSTEAD THESE AREAS
SHOULD EXPECT A FEW INCHES OF WET SNOW ACCUMULATION WITH GUSTY
EAST WINDS TODAY.

OVER THE WESTERN BERING...STRONG COLD AIR ADVECTION WILL BRINGING
WIDESPREAD SNOW SHOWERS AND HEAVY FREEZING SPRAY TO THE WESTERN
BERING/ALEUTIANS INTO THIS EVENING. THESE CONDITIONS SHOULD THEN
IMPROVE THIS EVENING AS WINDS AND COLD AIR ADVECTION DIMINISH.

&&

.LONG TERM FORECAST (DAYS 3 THROUGH 7)...

THE MAJOR WEATHER EVENT OF THE MID TO LONG TERM WILL BE ON DAY 3
WITH THE ARRIVAL OF A ROBUST FRONT INTO THE SOUTHCENTRAL ALASKA ON
SUNDAY WITH A WEAK LOW MOVING NORTHWESTWARD INTO THE KENAI
PENINSULA AND PRINCE WILLIAM SOUND SOMETIME SUNDAY AFTERNOON/EVENING.
MODELS ARE COMING INTO SOMEWHAT BETTER AGREEMENT WITH THE TIMING
AND LOCATION OF THIS EVENT...BUT WITH THAT BEING SAID THERE IS
STILL A GOOD BIT OF UNCERTAINTY WITH THE IMPACTS TO THE INTERIOR
SECTIONS OF SOUTH CENTRAL ALASKA. ALONG THE COAST...CONFIDENCE IS
HIGH FOR PERIODS OF HEAVY PRECIPITATION TO BEGIN EARLY SUNDAY
MORNING THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT. AT SEA LEVEL...PRECIPITATION IS
EXPECTED TO REMAIN ALL RAIN WITH WET SNOW EXPECTED INLAND AND AT
HIGHER ELEVATIONS ALONG THE COASTAL MOUNTAINS. IN INTERIOR
REGIONS...THE FORECAST ON SUNDAY IS NOT AS CLEAR CUT. ALL GUIDANCE
IS INDICATING THAT WINDS AT 925 THROUGH 700 MB WILL BE STRONG
ENOUGH /AT LEAST 45-65KT/ TO PUSH MOISTURE OVER THE MOUNTAINS AND
INTO UPPER COOK INLET AND THE MATANUSKA AND LOWER SUSITNA VALLEYS.
MODEL QPF VALUES FOR THE 12Z AND 18Z RUNS WERE RANGING FROM
AROUND 1-2 INCHES LIQUID EQUIVALENT IN THE GREATER ANCHORAGE AREA
ON SUNDAY. HOWEVER...LATEST MODEL GUIDANCE IS SHOWING MUCH LESS
THAN A TENTH OF AN INCH OF LIQUID EQUIVALENT. THIS ABRUPT CHANGE
IN LIQUID IS LARGELY DUE TO THE MODELS PLACING THE UPPER LEVEL JET
FURTHER TO THE EAST WHICH KEEPS MUCH OF THE LARGE SCALE MOISTURE
CLOSER TO VALDEZ AND YAKUTAT. GUIDANCE IS STILL VARYING FROM RUN
TO RUN AND MODEL TO MODEL AND COULD CHANGE ABRUPTLY AGAIN TODAY
SHOULD THE MODELS PUSH THE JET FURTHER WEST BACK TOWARD ANCHORAGE.

WITH ALL THIS SAID...THE FORECAST HAS CHANGED A GOOD FIT FROM THAT
OF THE THURSDAY AFTERNOON PACKAGE. THERE STILL LOOKS TO BE A
LIKELY PERIOD OF PRECIPITATION ON SUNDAY MORNING BUT BY SUNDAY
AFTERNOON IT LOOKS LIKE A LACK OF DEEP MOISTURE AND DOWNSLOPING
WILL SEVERELY LIMIT PRECIPITATION ACROSS INLAND AREAS. THE
FORECAST FOR SUNDAY WILL BEAR WATCHING OVER THE NEXT 24-48 HOURS
AS THERE IS STILL (ALTHOUGH LESS LIKELY THAN YESTERDAY) THE
POTENTIAL FOR A DECENT/SIGNIFICANT WINTER EVENT ON SUNDAY.

DAYS 4 THROUGH 7...MODELS ARE IN GROSS AGREEMENT IN THE SYNOPTIC
PATTERN AT THE UPPER LEVELS WITH A STOUT RIDGE BUILDING ALONG THE
WEST COAST OF NORTH AMERICA FROM THE BROOKS RANGE SOUTHWARD ALONG
THE CASCADES INTO CENTRAL CALIFORNIA WITH A BROAD TROUGH OVER THE
NORTH PACIFIC/BERING SEA. THIS TROUGH IS EXPECTED TO HAVE TWO MAIN
CENTERS...ONE LOCATED ROUGHLY AROUND 45N 165W AND A SECOND CENTER
OVER THE SEA OF OHKOSK. AS WITH THE UPPER LEVELS...MODELS ARE IN
BROAD AGREEMENT WITH A SERIES OF LOWS MOVING THROUGH THE ALEUTIANS
AND THE BERING SEA THROUGH THE BROAD UPPER TROUGH WITH A SURFACE
HIGH ALONG THE SE ALASKA/BC COAST. DUE TO DIFFERENCES IN
TIMING...STRENGTH...AND POSITIONS WITH THESE SYSTEMS THE DAY 4
THROUGH 7 FORECAST LEANS HEAVY ON THE WPC FORECAST /WHICH IS
MOSTLY THE 00Z EC ENSEMBLE/. THIS SOLUTION MOVES A 970-975 MB LOW
ALONG THE SOUTH END OF THE ALEUTIANS MONDAY AND TUESDAY BEFORE
MERGING INTO A BROAD LOW SOUTH OF THE ALASKA PENINSULA BY
THURSDAY. THIS PATTERN WILL KEEP THE KODIAK AND THE GULF COAST IN
A WET PATTERN THROUGH THE EXTENDED PERIOD.

&&

.AFC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
PUBLIC...BLIZZARD WARNING...185.
MARINE...HEAVY FREEZING SPRAY...160 178 180 181 185.
         STORM...119 120 127 130 131 138 139 176 185
         GALE...170 172 173 174

&&

SYNOPSIS AND MODEL DISCUSSION...JPW
SOUTHCENTRAL ALASKA...BC
SOUTHWEST ALASKA/BERING SEA/ALEUTIANS...DEK
LONG TERM...MMC