Gale Warning 170, NWS Anchorage, AK

110 
FZAK52 PAFC 172359
CWFALU

COASTAL WATERS FORECAST
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ANCHORAGE ALASKA
259 PM AKST WED FEB 17 2016

COASTAL WATERS FORECAST FOR SOUTHWEST ALASKA+BRISTOL BAY+THE
ALASKA PENINSULA WATERS AND THE ALEUTIAN ISLANDS UP TO 100 NM OUT.

WIND FORECASTS REFLECT THE PREDOMINANT SPEED AND DIRECTION
EXPECTED. SEA FORECASTS REPRESENT AN AVERAGE OF THE HIGHEST
ONE-THIRD OF THE COMBINED WIND WAVE AND SWELL HEIGHT.

PKZ199-181245-
259 PM AKST WED FEB 17 2016
.SYNOPSIS FOR SOUTHWEST ALASKA+BRISTOL BAY+THE ALASKA
PENINSULA WATERS AND THE ALEUTIAN ISLANDS...

A 964 MB LOW 220 NM WEST OF GAMBELL MOVES INTO EASTERN RUSSIA LATE TONIGHT.
A 983 MB LOW 350 NM WEST OF SHEMYA MOVES TO 400 NM NORTHWEST OF SHEMYA
AT 973 MB FRI AFTERNOON. A 976 MB LOW DEVELOPS 70 NM SOUTHEAST OF
ATKA LATE THU AND MOVES TO 200 NM SOUTHEAST OF DUTCH HARBOR AT 966
MB FRI AFTERNOON.

$$

PKZ150-181245-
SOUTH OF THE AK PENINSULA SITKINAK TO CASTLE CAPE-
259 PM AKST WED FEB 17 2016

...STORM WARNING THURSDAY...

.TONIGHT...NW WIND 40 KT. SEAS 16 FT.
.THU...NW WIND 50 KT. SEAS 19 FT.
.THU NIGHT...NW WIND 40 KT BECOMING N 25 KT AFTER MIDNIGHT. SEAS
17 FT SUBSIDING TO 12 FT AFTER MIDNIGHT.
.FRI...E WIND 25 KT. SEAS 10 FT.
.FRI NIGHT...E WIND 25 KT. SEAS 14 FT.
.SAT...E WIND 30 KT. SEAS 15 FT.
.SUN THROUGH MON...SE WIND 25 KT. SEAS 13 FT.

$$

PKZ155-181245-
SOUTH OF THE AK PENINSULA CASTLE CAPE TO CAPE SARICHEF-
259 PM AKST WED FEB 17 2016

...GALE WARNING THROUGH THURSDAY...

.TONIGHT...NW WIND 35 KT. SEAS 18 FT.
.THU...NW WIND 35 KT. FROM THE SHUMAGIN ISLANDS W...NW WIND 35 KT
DIMINISHING TO 25 KT IN THE AFTERNOON. SEAS 17 FT.
.THU NIGHT...SE WIND 25 KT. FROM THE SHUMAGIN ISLANDS E...NW WIND
30 KT BECOMING N 20 KT AFTER MIDNIGHT. SEAS 12 FT.
.FRI...E WIND 25 KT. SEAS 13 FT.
.FRI NIGHT...E WIND 20 KT. SEAS 12 FT.
.SAT...NE WIND 25 KT. SEAS 12 FT.
.SUN...SW WIND 20 KT. SEAS 8 FT.
.MON...SE WIND 25 KT. SEAS 9 FT.

$$

PKZ160-181245-
BRISTOL BAY-
259 PM AKST WED FEB 17 2016

...GALE WARNING THROUGH THURSDAY...
...HEAVY FREEZING SPRAY WARNING THURSDAY NIGHT...

.TONIGHT...NW WIND 30 KT INCREASING TO 40 KT AFTER MIDNIGHT. SEAS
12 FT. FREEZING SPRAY.
.THU...NW WIND 40 KT DIMINISHING TO 30 KT IN THE AFTERNOON. SEAS
12 FT. FREEZING SPRAY.
.THU NIGHT...N WIND 20 KT. SEAS 7 FT. HEAVY FREEZING SPRAY ALONG
THE COAST.
.FRI...NE WIND 25 KT. SEAS 6 FT.
.FRI NIGHT...E WIND 20 KT. SEAS 5 FT.
.SAT...NE WIND 25 KT. SEAS 5 FT.
.SUN THROUGH MON...E WIND 20 KT. SEAS 4 FT.

$$

PKZ165-181245-
PORT HEIDEN TO CAPE SARICHEF-
259 PM AKST WED FEB 17 2016

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT...

.TONIGHT...NW WIND 30 KT. SEAS 17 FT.
.THU...NW WIND 30 KT DIMINISHING TO 20 KT IN THE AFTERNOON. SEAS
17 FT.
.THU NIGHT...E WIND 25 KT EXCEPT NE 20 KT FROM PORT MOLLER E. SEAS
11 FT. FREEZING SPRAY FROM PORT MOLLER E.
.FRI...NE WIND 25 KT. SEAS 10 FT.
.FRI NIGHT...NE WIND 20 KT. SEAS 9 FT.
.SAT...NE WIND 25 KT. SEAS 10 FT.
.SUN...NE WIND 20 KT. SEAS 9 FT.
.MON...SE WIND 20 KT. SEAS 5 FT.

$$

PKZ170-181245-
CAPE SARICHEF TO NIKOLSKI BERING SIDE-
259 PM AKST WED FEB 17 2016

...GALE WARNING THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT...

.TONIGHT...W WIND 35 KT. SEAS 21 FT.
.THU...W WIND 25 KT BECOMING S 35 KT IN THE AFTERNOON. SEAS 18
FT.
.THU NIGHT...SE WIND 35 KT. SEAS 13 FT. RAIN AND SNOW.
.FRI...NE WIND 30 KT. SEAS 16 FT.
.FRI NIGHT...N WIND 25 KT. SEAS 13 FT.
.SAT THROUGH SUN...NW WIND 25 KT. SEAS 11 FT.
.MON...SE WIND 25 KT. SEAS 7 FT.

$$

PKZ171-181245-
UNALASKA BAY-
259 PM AKST WED FEB 17 2016

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY TONIGHT AND THURSDAY NIGHT...

.TONIGHT...NW WIND 30 KT. SEAS 13 FT. SNOW SHOWERS.
.THU...W WIND 20 KT BECOMING S IN THE AFTERNOON. SEAS 3 FT.
.THU NIGHT...SE WIND 30 KT. SEAS 5 FT. RAIN AND SNOW.
.FRI...NE WIND 25 KT. SEAS 5 FT.
.FRI NIGHT...N WIND 15 KT. SEAS 5 FT.
.SAT...N WIND 20 KT. SEAS 6 FT.
.SUN...NW WIND 20 KT. SEAS 6 FT.
.MON...SE WIND 20 KT. SEAS 3 FT.

$$

PKZ172-181245-
CAPE SARICHEF TO NIKOLSKI PACIFIC SIDE-
259 PM AKST WED FEB 17 2016

...GALE WARNING THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT...

.TONIGHT...NW WIND 40 KT DIMINISHING TO 30 KT AFTER MIDNIGHT.
SEAS 20 FT.
.THU...W WIND 25 KT BECOMING S 35 KT IN THE AFTERNOON. SEAS 15 FT.
.THU NIGHT...SE WIND 35 KT. SEAS 17 FT. RAIN AND SNOW.
.FRI...NE WIND 30 KT. SEAS 17 FT.
.FRI NIGHT...N WIND 30 KT. SEAS 15 FT.
.SAT THROUGH SUN...NW WIND 25 KT. SEAS 10 FT.
.MON...SE WIND 25 KT. SEAS 14 FT.

$$

PKZ173-181245-
NIKOLSKI TO SEGUAM ISLAND BERING SIDE-
259 PM AKST WED FEB 17 2016

...GALE WARNING THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT...

.TONIGHT...W WIND 40 KT BECOMING SW 25 KT AFTER MIDNIGHT. SEAS
23 FT.
.THU...S WIND 40 KT. SEAS 16 FT. SNOW AND RAIN.
.THU NIGHT...W WIND 25 KT IN THE EVENING BECOMING NW 45 KT. SEAS
21 FT. SNOW AND RAIN.
.FRI...NW WIND 45 KT. SEAS 23 FT.
.FRI NIGHT...NW WIND 35 KT. SEAS 18 FT.
.SAT THROUGH SUN...NW WIND 30 KT. SEAS 13 FT.
.MON...E WIND 25 KT. SEAS 11 FT.

$$

PKZ174-181245-
NIKOLSKI TO SEGUAM ISLAND PACIFIC SIDE-
259 PM AKST WED FEB 17 2016

...GALE WARNING THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT...

.TONIGHT...W WIND 40 KT DIMINISHING TO 25 KT AFTER MIDNIGHT. SEAS
23 FT.
.THU...S WIND 45 KT. SEAS 17 FT. SNOW AND RAIN.
.THU NIGHT...W WIND 25 KT IN THE EVENING BECOMING NW 45 KT. SEAS
25 FT. SNOW AND RAIN.
.FRI...NW WIND 50 KT. SEAS 26 FT.
.FRI NIGHT...NW WIND 40 KT. SEAS 23 FT.
.SAT THROUGH SUN...NW WIND 30 KT. SEAS 16 FT.
.MON...SE WIND 25 KT. SEAS 18 FT.

$$

PKZ175-181245-
SEGUAM ISLAND TO ADAK BERING SIDE-
259 PM AKST WED FEB 17 2016

...GALE WARNING THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT...

.TONIGHT...W WIND 35 KT BECOMING S 40 KT AFTER MIDNIGHT. SEAS 21
FT.
.THU...S WIND 40 KT BECOMING W 30 KT IN THE AFTERNOON. SEAS 16 FT.
SNOW AND RAIN.
.THU NIGHT...NW WIND 35 KT. SEAS 17 FT. FREEZING SPRAY W OF ATKA.
.FRI AND FRI NIGHT...NW WIND 30 KT. SEAS 15 FT.
.SAT...NW WIND 30 KT. SEAS 12 FT.
.SUN...NW WIND 25 KT. SEAS 11 FT.
.MON...E WIND 25 KT. SEAS 11 FT.

$$

PKZ176-181245-
SEGUAM ISLAND TO ADAK PACIFIC SIDE-
259 PM AKST WED FEB 17 2016

...GALE WARNING THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT...

.TONIGHT...W WIND 35 KT BECOMING S 40 KT AFTER MIDNIGHT. SEAS 20
FT.
.THU...S WIND 40 KT BECOMING W IN THE AFTERNOON. SEAS 19 FT. SNOW
AND RAIN.
.THU NIGHT...NW WIND 40 KT. SEAS 19 FT.
.FRI...NW WIND 40 KT. SEAS 20 FT.
.FRI NIGHT...NW WIND 30 KT. SEAS 18 FT.
.SAT THROUGH SUN...W WIND 30 KT. SEAS 14 FT.
.MON...E WIND 20 KT. SEAS 20 FT.

$$

PKZ177-181245-
ADAK TO KISKA-
259 PM AKST WED FEB 17 2016

...GALE WARNING THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT...

.TONIGHT...S WIND 30 KT INCREASING TO 45 KT AFTER MIDNIGHT. SEAS
22 FT. SNOW AND RAIN.
.THU...W WIND 35 KT. SEAS 21 FT. SNOW AND RAIN. FREEZING SPRAY IN
THE AFTERNOON.
.THU NIGHT...W WIND 35 KT. SEAS 21 FT. FREEZING SPRAY.
.FRI AND FRI NIGHT...NW WIND 30 KT. SEAS 19 FT.
.SAT...NW WIND 30 KT. SEAS 15 FT.
.SUN...E WIND 25 KT. SEAS 11 FT.
.MON...NE WIND 25 KT. SEAS 18 FT.

$$

PKZ178-181245-
KISKA TO ATTU-
259 PM AKST WED FEB 17 2016

...GALE WARNING THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT...
...HEAVY FREEZING SPRAY WARNING THURSDAY AND THURSDAY NIGHT...

.TONIGHT...SW WIND 45 KT. SEAS 23 FT. SNOW AND RAIN. FREEZING
SPRAY AFTER MIDNIGHT W OF SHEMYA.
.THU...W WIND 45 KT. SEAS 22 FT. HEAVY FREEZING SPRAY FROM SHEMYA
W.
.THU NIGHT...W WIND 40 KT. SEAS 23 FT. HEAVY FREEZING SPRAY FROM
SHEMYA W IN THE EVENING.
.FRI...W WIND 35 KT. SEAS 22 FT.
.FRI NIGHT...NW WIND 30 KT. SEAS 18 FT.
.SAT...NW WIND 25 KT. SEAS 15 FT.
.SUN...E WIND 25 KT. SEAS 12 FT.
.MON...N WIND 25 KT. SEAS 18 FT.

$$

PKZ179-181245-
PRIBILOF ISLANDS NEAR SHORE WATERS-
259 PM AKST WED FEB 17 2016

...GALE WARNING TONIGHT...

.TONIGHT...W WIND 35 KT. SEAS 20 FT. SNOW SHOWERS.
.THU...S WIND 20 KT IN THE MORNING INCREASING TO 30 KT. SEAS 18
FT.
.THU NIGHT...SE WIND 30 KT. SEAS 15 FT. SNOW.
.FRI...E WIND 25 KT. SEAS 15 FT.
.FRI NIGHT...NE WIND 20 KT. SEAS 12 FT.
.SAT THROUGH SUN...N WIND 20 KT. SEAS 10 FT.
.MON...E WIND 20 KT. SEAS 6 FT.

$$

PKZ180-181245-
KUSKOKWIM DELTA AND ETOLIN STRAIT-
259 PM AKST WED FEB 17 2016

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY THROUGH THURSDAY...

.TONIGHT...NW WIND 30 KT. SEAS IN ICE FREE WATERS 11 FT. FREEZING
SPRAY ALONG THE ICE EDGE.
.THU...NW WIND 30 KT DIMINISHING TO 20 KT IN THE AFTERNOON. N OF
CAPE NEWENHAM...NW WIND 20 KT BECOMING S IN THE AFTERNOON. SEAS
IN ICE FREE WATERS 10 FT. FREEZING SPRAY ALONG THE ICE EDGE IN THE
MORNING.
.THU NIGHT...E WIND 20 KT. SEAS IN ICE FREE WATERS 7 FT. FREEZING
SPRAY.
.FRI AND FRI NIGHT...NE WIND 25 KT. SEAS IN ICE FREE WATERS 7 FT.
.SAT...NE WIND 25 KT. SEAS IN ICE FREE WATERS 6 FT.
.SUN THROUGH MON...E WIND 20 KT. SEAS IN ICE FREE WATERS 6 FT.

$$

PKZ181-181245-
NORTH AND WEST OF NUNIVAK ISLAND-
259 PM AKST WED FEB 17 2016

...BRISK WIND ADVISORY TONIGHT AND THURSDAY NIGHT...

.TONIGHT...SW WIND 25 KT.
.THU...S WIND 20 KT.
.THU NIGHT...SE WIND 25 KT.
.FRI...NE WIND 20 KT.
.FRI NIGHT...NE WIND 25 KT.
.SAT...NE WIND 20 KT.
.SUN...NE WIND 25 KT.
.MON...NE WIND 15 KT.

$$

PKZ185-181245-
SAINT MATTHEW ISLAND WATERS-
259 PM AKST WED FEB 17 2016

...GALE WARNING THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT...
...HEAVY FREEZING SPRAY WARNING TONIGHT...

.TONIGHT...E OF SAINT MATTHEW ISLAND...SW WIND 35 KT. W OF SAINT
MATTHEW ISLAND...W WIND 45 KT. SEAS 27 FT. HEAVY FREEZING SPRAY.
.THU...E OF SAINT MATTHEW ISLAND...SW WIND 20 KT BECOMING SE 30 KT
IN THE AFTERNOON. W OF SAINT MATTHEW ISLAND...S WIND 35 KT. SEAS
19 FT. FREEZING SPRAY IN THE MORNING.
.THU NIGHT...SE WIND 35 KT. SEAS 22 FT. FREEZING SPRAY.
.FRI...SE WIND 30 KT. SEAS 20 FT.
.FRI NIGHT...NE WIND 25 KT. SEAS 13 FT.
.SAT THROUGH SUN...NE WIND 25 KT. SEAS 10 FT.
.MON...NE WIND 30 KT. SEAS 7 FT.

$$

SOUTHCENTRAL AND SOUTHWEST ALASKA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ANCHORAGE AK
453 PM AKST TUE FEB 16 2016

.ANALYSIS AND UPPER LEVELS...A SLIGHT CHANGE IN OUR LONG-LIVED
PATTERN IS UNDERWAY. THE JET HAS FINALLY MOVED FAR ENOUGH NORTH
TO IMPACT THE MAINLAND OF AK. IT IS CURRENTLY MOVING FROM
SOUTHWEST TO NORTHEAST ACROSS THE CENTRAL ALEUTIANS AT ABOUT
150KTS. THIS IS PROVIDING THE SUPPORT FOR A DEVELOPING LOW
PRESSURE CENTER THIS AFTERNOON JUST WEST OF THE PRIBILOF ISLANDS.
DETERIORATING CONDITIONS ARE ALREADY APPARENT AT THE PRIBILOF ISLANDS
AS RAIN HAS DEVELOPED. SOUTHEAST WINDS ARE ALSO INCREASING ACROSS
THE EASTERN ALEUTIANS THROUGH THE WEST COAST OF THE YK-DELTA IN
RESPONSE TO THIS SYSTEM DEVELOPING. MEANWHILE...A TRANSIENT RIDGE
OVER THE MAINLAND BROUGHT ENOUGH STABILITY TO ALLOW WIDESPREAD FOG
AND STRATUS TO FORM OVER BRISTOL BAY. AS THOSE INCREASING WINDS
START TO SPREAD INLAND...THERE WILL BE ENOUGH MIXING TO CAUSE SOME
OF THIS LOW LEVEL MOISTURE TO LIFT.

IN THE EAST...THE SAME TRANSIENT RIDGE IS MAKING FOR ANOTHER SUNNY
DAY FOR JUST ABOUT ALL AREAS. THE LONE EXCEPTION IS SOME LOW
STRATUS HUNG UP IN THE COPPER RIVER BASIN COURTESY OF A VERY WEAK
SHORTWAVE PASSING THROUGH THE AREA FROM THE NORTHWEST. OUTFLOW
WINDS THROUGH THE USUAL PLACES...THOMPSON
PASS...WHITTIER...SEWARD...ARE ALSO STARTING TO INCREASE SOME
THIS AFTERNOON AS HIGHER PRESSURE INLAND WORKS IN TANDEM WITH A
WEAK TROUGH ALONG THE NORTH GULF COAST.

&&

.MODEL DISCUSSION...MODELS REMAIN IN RELATIVELY GOOD AGREEMENT ON
THE SYNOPTIC SCALE FOR THE FIRST 40 HRS OR SO. AFTER THAT...WE
START TO SEE FAIRLY BROAD DISAGREEMENT WITH ANOTHER DEVELOPING LOW
OVER THE WESTERN ALEUTIANS LATE WED INTO THU. WE ALSO SEE SOME
MINOR ISSUES WITH HOW A TRIPLE POINT LOW FORMS ALONG THE FRONT
OVER THE SOUTHWEST AND SUBSEQUENTLY...HOW IT TRACKS INTO THE GULF.
A GFS/EC BLEND WAS USED TO TAKE AN AVERAGE OF THE LOW OVER THE
WESTERN ALEUTIANS. THERE IS A DECENT LIKELIHOOD THAT THIS SYSTEM
COULD SPLIT INTO TWO SYSTEMS...SO THERE IS LOW CONFIDENCE IN
EXACTLY WHERE ANY STORM-FORCE WINDS MAY OCCUR. AS FOR THE LOW
TRACKING INTO THE GULF WED INTO THU...MOST MODELS TAKE IT OVER THE
SOUTHERN TIP OF KODIAK. ONLY THE GEM SEEMED TO SHOW A TRACK AS
FAR NORTH AS THE NORTHERN HALF OF KODIAK. SO WE LEANED AWAY FROM
THE GEM AND TRIED TO ENSURE THAT SOME SHELIKOF WINDS WERE
INCORPORATED. FINALLY...THERE IS SLIGHT DISAGREEMENT ON EXACTLY
HOW MUCH WARM AIR WILL COME UP INTO THE YK-DELTA COAST. THE NAM IS
THE COLDEST AT THIS POINT. BUT EVEN WITH 60 KTS OF -3 TO -4C
850MB FLOW...THERMAL PROFILES IN THE AREA SUPPORT MOSTLY SNOW
THROUGH THE EVENT.

&&

.SHORT TERM FORECAST SOUTHCENTRAL ALASKA (DAYS 1 AND 2)...

THE UPPER LEVEL RIDGE OVER WESTERN ALASKA WILL SHIFT EAST OVER
CENTRAL ALASKA TONIGHT AS A FRONTAL SYSTEM PUSHES ONSHORE AND INTO
SOUTHWEST ALASKA. FOR MUCH OF SOUTH CENTRAL ALASKA THE RIDGE WILL
BRING CLEAR SKIES WITH THE POTENTIAL FOR SOME LOCALIZED AREAS OF
PATCHY FOG OR LOW STRATUS FORMING IN WIND SHELTERED LOCATIONS. THE
BREEZY WEST TO NORTHERLY OUTFLOW WINDS THROUGH TERRAIN GAPS NEAR
THE COAST WILL DIMINISH OVERNIGHT AS THE OFFSHORE PRESSURE
GRADIENT RELAXES. THE FRONTAL SYSTEM COMING IN FROM THE WEST WILL
REACH KODIAK ISLAND ON WEDNESDAY THEN STALL IN THAT GENERAL
LOCATION THROUGH THROUGH THURSDAY. WINDS ALONG AND OUT AHEAD OF
THE FRONT WILL INCREASE TO EAST TO NORTHEASTERLY GALES WEDNESDAY
THEN GRADUALLY DIMINISH WEDNESDAY NIGHT AND THURSDAY AS THE FRONT
WEAKENS.

&&

.SHORT TERM FORECAST SOUTHWEST ALASKA (DAYS 1 AND 2)...

A STRONG AND MOIST WARM FRONT WILL RAPIDLY MOVE INTO SOUTHWEST
TONIGHT AND EARLY TOMORROW...MOVING FROM THE COAST EASTWARD
THROUGH WEDNESDAY BEFORE STALLING ACROSS THE LOWER KUSKOKWIM
VALLEY AND INLAND BRISTOL BAY. THIS WILL BRING STRONG SOUTHEAST
WINDS AND POTENTIAL PERIODS OF HEAVY SNOW...ESPECIALLY ALONG THE
KUSKOKWIM DELTA COAST. SOME MIXING WITH RAIN MAY OCCUR FROM THE
COAST OF BRISTOL BAY TO THE SOUTHERN PORTION OF THE DELTA...WITH
THE BEST CHANCE FOR HEAVY ACCUMULATING SNOW AND STRONG WINDS ALONG
THE COAST MAINLY FROM TOKSOOK BAY NORTH. THIS WILL OCCUR LATE THIS
EVENING...WITH THE SNOW BAND MOVING INLAND BY TOMORROW
MORNING...BRINGING AN END TO ANY POTENTIAL BLIZZARD CONDITIONS. AS
THE FRONT MOVES INLAND...SNOW WILL CONTINUE TO FALL INTO THURSDAY
AS THE FRONT STALLS. COLD AIR WILL WRAP IN AS A COLD FRONT MOVES
INLAND WEDNESDAY.

&&

.SHORT TERM FORECAST BERING SEA/ALEUTIANS (DAYS 1 AND 2)...

A POWERFUL GALE FORCE FRONT WILL MAKE EASTWARD PROGRESS TO THE
SOUTHWEST COAST BY THIS EVENING...WITH AN EQUALLY STRONG COLD
FRONT CURRENTLY CROSSING THE WESTERN BERING RAPIDLY FOLLOWING ON
ITS HEELS. WINDS WILL QUICKLY TURN WEST SOUTHWEST WITH STRONG COLD
AIR ADVECTION AND INSTABILITY SNOW SHOWERS MOVING ACROSS THE
BERING SEA THROUGH WEDNESDAY. ANOTHER STRONG LOW WILL MOVE INTO
THE WESTERN BERING SEA WEDNESDAY EVENING THROUGH THURSDAY
BRINGING RAIN AND SNOW AND STRONG GALE FORCE TO NEAR STORM FORCE
WINDS...STALLING OVER THE CENTRAL BERING.

&&

.LONG TERM FORECAST (DAYS 3 THROUGH 7)...
THE 500MB 5-WAVE GEOPOTENTIAL HEIGHTS ARE SHOWING THE SAME
WEATHER PATTERN THAT WE HAVE BEEN EXPERIENCING FOR THE LAST
MONTH. THEREFORE...LOOK FOR WARMER TEMPERATURES AND DRIER
CONDITIONS FOR THE SOUTHCENTRAL REGION WITH AN AMPLIFIED RIDGE
OVER THE SOUTHEAST PANHANDLE EXTENDING THROUGH THE SOUTHCENTRAL
INTERIOR. WHILE THE BERING SEA...SOUTHWEST AND THE ALEUTIANS WILL
BE DOMINATED BY AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH THROUGH THE WEEKEND. THIS
SYNOPTIC FEATURE WILL BRING A SHOWERY WEATHER REGIME FOR THE MOST
PART AS WE HEAD INTO THE WEEKEND. THE MODELS IN GENERAL AT THE
SURFACE ARE GENERATING A BROAD AREA OF LOW PRESSURE DEVELOPING
JUST SOUTH OF THE EASTERN ALEUTIANS BY THE WEEKEND.

&&

.AFC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
PUBLIC...BLIZZARD WARNING 155 AND WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY FOR SNOW
161.
MARINE...STORMS 177 180 181. GALES 130 132 138 150 155 160 165
170 171 172 173 174 175 176 178 179 185 411 412 413 414.

&&

SYNOPSIS AND MODEL DISCUSSION...MO
SOUTHCENTRAL ALASKA...JR
SOUTHWEST ALASKA/BERING SEA/ALEUTIANS...JA
LONG TERM...PD

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ANCHORAGE AK
1205 AM AKST WED FEB 17 2016

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

1203 AM     BLIZZARD         MEKORYUK                60.37N 166.28W
02/17/2016                                      AK   AWOS

            BLIZZARD CONDITIONS REPORTED FOR 5 CONSECUTIVE HOURS FROM
            615PM TO 1115PM.

&&

JPW

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ANCHORAGE AK
243 AM AKST WED FEB 17 2016

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0241 AM     BLIZZARD         HOOPER BAY              61.54N 166.10W
02/17/2016                                      AK   AWOS

            BLIZZARD CONDITIONS ONGOING SINCE 11PM.

&&

JPW