Flash Flood Warning 43, NWS Albuquerque, NM

521 
WGUS75 KABQ 022012
FFSABQ

FLASH FLOOD STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ALBUQUERQUE NM
212 PM MDT FRI SEP 2 2016

NMC001-057-022045-
/O.CON.KABQ.FF.W.0043.000000T0000Z-160902T2045Z/
/00000.0.ER.000000T0000Z.000000T0000Z.000000T0000Z.OO/
BERNALILLO-TORRANCE-
212 PM MDT FRI SEP 2 2016

...THE FLASH FLOOD WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 245 PM MDT FOR
SOUTHEASTERN BERNALILLO AND NORTHWESTERN TORRANCE COUNTIES...

AT 210 PM MDT...NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DOPPLER RADAR INDICATED
THUNDERSTORMS PRODUCING HEAVY RAIN HAVE ENDED OVER THE WARNED AREA.
FLASH FLOODING IS STILL POSSIBLE IN DRAINAGES WITHIN THE CHINCHONTE
ARROYO BASIN...INCLUDING AROUND COUNTY ROAD A053. SOME HIGH WATER
IS ALSO POSSIBLE WITHIN THE ARROYO ABOVE CHILILI.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

RUNOFF FROM RAINFALL WILL CAUSE ELEVATED WATER LEVELS WITHIN
VULNERABLE DRAINAGES IN AND DOWNSTREAM OF THE DOG HEAD FIRE BURN 
AREA.

&&

LAT...LON 3490 10622 3487 10619 3482 10619 3484 10630
      3488 10630

$$

GUYER

549 
WGUS75 KABQ 022039
FFSABQ

FLASH FLOOD STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ALBUQUERQUE NM
239 PM MDT FRI SEP 2 2016

NMC001-057-022049-
/O.EXP.KABQ.FF.W.0043.000000T0000Z-160902T2045Z/
/00000.0.ER.000000T0000Z.000000T0000Z.000000T0000Z.OO/
BERNALILLO-TORRANCE-
239 PM MDT FRI SEP 2 2016

...THE FLASH FLOOD WARNING FOR SOUTHEASTERN BERNALILLO AND
NORTHWESTERN TORRANCE COUNTIES WILL EXPIRE AT 245 PM MDT...

THE HEAVY RAIN HAS ENDED...AND FLOODING IS NO LONGER EXPECTED TO POSE
A THREAT.

LAT...LON 3490 10622 3487 10619 3482 10619 3484 10630
      3488 10630

$$

GUYER

Area Forecast Discussion...UPDATED
National Weather Service Albuquerque NM
1141 AM MDT FRI SEP 2 2016

.AVIATION...
18Z TAF CYCLE
A weak upper level wave will combine with plentiful low level
moisture to produce widespread showers and thunderstorms this
afternoon and evening. Favored area for numerous showers and
thunderstorms will be across western New Mexico this afternoon and
evening, especially across west-central to northwestern sections
of the state. Brief heavy downpours will temporarily reduce
ceilings and visibilities with the potential for gusty downburst
winds. Patchy low clouds and perhaps fog will be possible again
late tonight/early Saturday morning.

33

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION...340 AM MDT FRI SEP 2 2016...
.SYNOPSIS...
Western and central New Mexico will see the best chances for showers
and storms today into Saturday. Drier air will spread from west to
east over the region Saturday and Sunday, tapering down the number
and areal coverage of showers and storms. Afternoon breezes will
develop by Sunday and persist into the middle of next week. Some
moisture will attempt to work northward Labor Day into Tuesday,
increasing rain chances over northern and central New Mexico. High
temperatures will warm closer to seasonal normals through the
weekend.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
Satellite imagery clearly illustrates the shifting weather pattern
with an upper trough approaching from the west, squeezing a plume of
clouds/moisture over western and central NM. Low level moisture
lingers in the eastern plains early this morning with spotty low
clouds and patchy fog observed and have expanded the areal coverage
of the early morning fog in the grids from what was inherited.
Otherwise, the focus for showers and storms will shift to western
and central NM moreso today with a notable change in steering flow
from west to east, and increasing in speed to around 10 to 20 mph.
Given the cloudy start to the day in the eastern plains, have gone a
degree or two below guidance for high temps today but they will
remain a few below average across most of the forecast area.

A warming trend will continue through the holiday weekend as drier
air, which is prominent in the imagery, spreads over the region from
west to east. ECMWF still holds onto more moisture Saturday so
didn't taper pops down quite as much as the GFS would suggest but
the higher terrain as well as adjacent highlands would be most
likely to see rain as southwest winds aloft carry cells to the
northeast with a little more gusto. Afternoon breezy to windy
conditions will develop by Sunday as storm chances are mostly
relegated to the central mt chain and adjacent highlands but this
may be slightly optimistic.

Models persist with the idea of a surge in moisture Labor Day into
Tuesday, increasing rain chances mainly from the Continental Divide
eastward, but how much moisture and how far west it reaches will
depend on the orientation of the passing upper trough. Wednesday and
Thursday appear drier after the trough passage in zonal flow with
afternoon breezes continuing. The GFS has reverted it's deep trough
for later next week to one less so, and therefore prevents the
tropical system, which may already be showing up on imagery se of
Baja CA, from sharing it's wealth of moisture with New Mexico. The
ECMWF takes what's left of the system into AZ but NM could get some
of the moisture via the scenic route late next week. At 240 hrs the
2 models are quite different with the GFS predicting a deep trough
over the central US and the ECMWF much less amplified.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...

Excellent humidity recovery is currently in progress across most of
NM early this morning with light south or southeast surface winds
prevailing in most locales. High pressure is shifting a bit farther
south into Old Mexico while an upper low crashes into the British
Columbia coast. This will carve a longer wave parent trough over the
western states with strengthening southwesterlies aloft stretching
from the Baja into AZ and NM. As a result, a spoke of mid level
moisture will be transported northeastward into NM through the day.
Higher rain chances will spread over the western to central zones,
particularly in the north central to west central portions of the
forecast area. Any storms should tend to drift northeastward or
eastward. Winds at the surface/20ft level will be light in most
zones, the exception being in far northeastern NM where a weak lee
side surface trough will induce stronger breezes in the afternoon.
Temperatures will warm a few degrees closer to seasonal averages in
eastern NM today, and minimum RH will remain at or above 35 percent
across the forecast area. Haines indices will be comparable to the
past few days, with low values ranging from 2 to 3.

The southwesterlies aloft will strengthen a bit more on Saturday as
the long wave trough amplifies and sends some energy down the west
coast. This could drive some late afternoon breezes down to the
surface in portions of western and central NM with more substantial
breezes in northeastern NM, closer to the lee side trough. The best
mid level moisture will start to shift farther east due to the
stronger southwesterlies aloft, but scattered storms should still
manage to develop along the higher terrain of the central mountain
chain and the continental divide. Minimum RH will fall close to 20
percent in the San Juan basin of northwestern NM, and temperatures
will reach within a few degrees either side of normal Saturday
afternoon.

The southwesterly flow aloft strengthens even more over NM on Sunday
as another disturbance embedded in the parent trough dives into the
Great Basin. The stronger winds aloft will be complemented by the
lee side surface cyclone that will deepen more Sunday afternoon,
producing breezy to windy conditions over most NM zones. Drier air
will continue to spill into western NM and even north central parts
of the state, and this will inhibit thunderstorm chances. Haines
indices will abruptly shoot up to the 4 to 6 range in north central
to northwestern NM on Sunday due to steeper temperature lapse rates
and drier air aloft. At this time, it still appears both winds and
RH will reach close to marginal critical thresholds, but no critical
values have been populated into the forecast for Sunday afternoon.

For the Labor day holiday, the long wave trough deepens a bit more
over the western states, causing the stiff southwesterlies to turn a
bit more southerly over NM. Western NM appears to remain fairly dry
Monday afternoon, however a modest flux of subtropical moisture
could push northward out of Old Mexico and into the forecast area.
This would keep some potential for isolated to scattered storms,
mostly along and near the central mountain chain. Breezy to windy
conditions would be commonplace across the forecast area Monday, but
minimum RH should again hover above critical thresholds.

By Tuesday, the relatively strong flow aloft should keep some
increased moisture drawing northward into NM. Storm chances rise
into Tuesday while the breezy to windy conditions persist at the
surface/20ft level. Breezes would decrease into Wednesday and
Thursday, but much uncertainty exists with regards to how much
moisture will be in place over the state.

52

&&

PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Farmington......................  85  59  85  56 /  40  40  20  10
Dulce...........................  79  51  77  49 /  60  50  30  20
Cuba............................  75  51  78  51 /  60  40  20  20
Gallup..........................  80  52  81  49 /  40  30  20  10
El Morro........................  75  50  78  46 /  60  40  20  10
Grants..........................  79  52  80  49 /  60  40  20  10
Quemado.........................  78  53  80  50 /  50  30  20  10
Glenwood........................  84  62  86  60 /  30  20  20  10
Chama...........................  70  47  72  46 /  70  50  40  20
Los Alamos......................  75  54  78  54 /  50  50  30  20
Pecos...........................  76  53  78  54 /  40  40  30  20
Cerro/Questa....................  76  49  77  49 /  40  50  30  20
Red River.......................  69  44  69  44 /  50  40  40  20
Angel Fire......................  71  45  74  45 /  50  40  30  20
Taos............................  78  51  78  50 /  30  40  30  10
Mora............................  72  50  76  52 /  60  40  40  20
Espanola........................  82  58  82  54 /  30  30  20  10
Santa Fe........................  77  55  79  55 /  40  40  30  20
Santa Fe Airport................  81  56  82  57 /  30  40  20  10
Albuquerque Foothills...........  80  59  82  59 /  40  40  20  10
Albuquerque Heights.............  83  62  85  62 /  30  30  10  10
Albuquerque Valley..............  84  63  87  58 /  20  30  10  10
Albuquerque West Mesa...........  84  61  86  58 /  30  30  10  10
Los Lunas.......................  85  62  87  62 /  20  30  10  10
Rio Rancho......................  83  60  86  60 /  30  30  20  10
Socorro.........................  85  62  86  62 /  30  30  20  10
Sandia Park/Cedar Crest.........  76  55  79  55 /  50  50  30  10
Tijeras.........................  79  57  82  57 /  40  50  20  10
Moriarty/Estancia...............  81  54  81  52 /  40  40  20  20
Clines Corners..................  75  54  78  54 /  30  40  30  20
Gran Quivira....................  78  56  80  58 /  30  40  30  20
Carrizozo.......................  81  60  81  62 /  20  30  20  10
Ruidoso.........................  71  55  74  58 /  50  40  40  20
Capulin.........................  76  55  81  55 /  30  30  30  20
Raton...........................  80  54  83  53 /  30  30  20  10
Springer........................  80  55  84  54 /  30  30  20  10
Las Vegas.......................  76  52  80  54 /  30  30  30  20
Clayton.........................  80  61  86  62 /  20  20  20  10
Roy.............................  77  57  83  59 /  20  30  20  10
Conchas.........................  81  64  86  62 /  20  20  20  10
Santa Rosa......................  82  61  86  63 /  20  20  20  10
Tucumcari.......................  84  64  89  66 /  20  20  20  10
Clovis..........................  80  62  85  63 /  30  20  20  10
Portales........................  81  63  86  64 /  30  20  20  10
Fort Sumner.....................  81  64  86  64 /  20  20  20  10
Roswell.........................  83  65  89  66 /  20  20  20  10
Picacho.........................  77  60  82  61 /  40  20  30  20
Elk.............................  73  58  78  59 /  50  30  30  20

&&

.ABQ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
None.

&&

43

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ALBUQUERQUE NM
410 AM MDT FRI SEP 2 2016

NMZ501>540-031200-
NORTHWEST PLATEAU-CHUSKA MOUNTAINS-FAR NORTHWEST
HIGHLANDS-NORTHWEST HIGHLANDS-WEST CENTRAL PLATEAU-WEST CENTRAL
MOUNTAINS-WEST CENTRAL HIGHLANDS-SOUTHWEST MOUNTAINS-SAN FRANCISCO
RIVER VALLEY-SAN JUAN MOUNTAINS-JEMEZ MOUNTAINS-WEST SLOPES SANGRE
DE CRISTO MOUNTAINS-NORTHERN SANGRE DE CRISTOS ABOVE 9500 FEET/RED
RIVER-SOUTHERN SANGRE DE CRISTOS ABOVE 9500 FEET-EAST SLOPES SANGRE
DE CRISTO MOUNTAINS-UPPER RIO GRANDE VALLEY-LOWER CHAMA RIVER VALLEY-
SANTA FE METRO AREA-MIDDLE RIO GRANDE VALLEY/ALBUQUERQUE METRO AREA-
LOWER RIO GRANDE VALLEY-SANDIA/MANZANO MOUNTAINS-ESTANCIA VALLEY-
CENTRAL HIGHLANDS-SOUTH CENTRAL HIGHLANDS-UPPER TULAROSA VALLEY-
SOUTH CENTRAL MOUNTAINS-RATON RIDGE/JOHNSON MESA-FAR NORTHEAST
HIGHLANDS-NORTHEAST HIGHLANDS-UNION COUNTY-HARDING COUNTY-EASTERN
SAN MIGUEL COUNTY-GUADALUPE COUNTY-QUAY COUNTY-CURRY COUNTY-
ROOSEVELT COUNTY-DE BACA COUNTY-CHAVES COUNTY PLAINS-EASTERN LINCOLN
COUNTY-SOUTHWEST CHAVES COUNTY-
410 AM MDT FRI SEP 2 2016

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR PORTIONS OF NORTH AND CENTRAL
NEW MEXICO.

.DAY ONE...TODAY AND TONIGHT

A FEW THUNDERSTORMS TODAY AND TONIGHT WILL BE CAPABLE OF PRODUCING
LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL WHICH MAY LEAD TO MINOR FLOODING.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY

NO HAZARDOUS WEATHER IS EXPECTED AT THIS TIME. HOWEVER...WEATHER CAN
CHANGE VERY RAPIDLY. ALWAYS USE THE LATEST FORECASTS...WATCHES AND
WARNINGS FOR PLANNING PURPOSES.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

SPOTTERS ARE ENCOURAGED TO REPORT HEAVY RAINFALL AND ANY SUBSEQUENT
FLOODING THROUGH THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ALBUQUERQUE WEB SITE
AT WEATHER.GOV/ABQ OR BY CALLING 1.888.386.7637. YOU CAN ALSO
SUBMIT STORM REPORTS AND PHOTOS ON OUR FACEBOOK PAGE OR VIA
TWITTER USING THE HASHTAG NMWX.