Red Flag Warning 7, NWS Tucson, AZ

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TUCSON AZ
230 AM MST SAT APR 18 2015

.SYNOPSIS...GUSTY NORTHWEST WINDS WILL DEVELOP THIS
AFTERNOON...MAINLY ACROSS AREAS AROUND SAFFORD AND FEW OTHER
LOCATIONS EAST OF TUCSON. OTHERWISE EXPECT DRY CONDITIONS WITH A
WARMING TREND THIS WEEKEND INTO THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK. ANOTHER
ROUND OF GUSTY WINDS IS EXPECTED BY WEDNESDAY OR THURSDAY AS A
SYSTEM MOVES TOWARD THE AREA FROM THE WEST. A FEW SHOWERS ARE
POSSIBLE LATE THURSDAY INTO FRIDAY.

&&

.DISCUSSION...DRY AND COOL WITH BELOW AVERAGE TEMPERATURES THIS
MORNING...BUT NOT AS COOL AS FRIDAY. AS THE LOW CONTINUES TO SLOWLY
LIFT OFF TOWARD THE CENTRAL PLAINS WE WILL CONTINUE TO SEE
DIMINISHING WINDS AND TEMPERATURES WARMING BACK UP TO TYPICAL
SEASONAL LEVELS. PROXIMITY OF THE LOW TODAY AS WELL AS ORIENTATION
OF THE WINDS WILL PROBABLY SEE AN ENHANCED AND CHANNELED GRADIENT
THROUGH THE GILA RIVER VALLEY OF GRAHAM AND SOUTHERN GREENLEE
COUNTIES WITH WINDY CONDITIONS AND CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER CONCERNS
THERE. PLEASE SEE THE FIRE WEATHER DISCUSSION BELOW FOR ADDITIONAL
DETAILS.

A MODEST RIDGE WILL BUILD IN FROM THE WEST TO START THE WEEK WITH
TEMPERATURES BACK A LITTLE ABOVE AVERAGE BY MONDAY.

FAIR AGREEMENT BETWEEN ECMWF AND GFS RESOLUTIONS CONCERNING ANOTHER
STRONG SPLIT OF ENERGY FROM THE GULF OF ALASKA DOWN THE COAST AND
TOWARD ARIZONA AROUND THURSDAY AND FRIDAY. A BLEND OF THE TWO WILL
CONTINUE TO WORK VERY WELL WITH A HYBRID SYSTEM THAT HAS SOME DRIER
INLAND CHARACTERISTICS AND JUST A TOUCH OF LOWER LATITUDE THAT
DOESN'T GO FAR OR SLOW ENOUGH TO CUT OFF. THIS ARGUES FOR A MAIN
WEATHER STORY OF WINDS OVER OTHER CONSIDERATIONS...WITH JUST ENOUGH
MOISTURE FOR A FEW SHOWERS AND NOT AS MUCH COOL AIR AS OUR MOST
RECENT SYSTEM.

&&

.AVIATION...VALID THRU 19/12Z.
VFR CONDITIONS THROUGH THE PERIOD. SKIES WILL BE SKC FOR THE MOST
PART WITH A FEW CLOUDS AOA 15K FT POSSIBLE FROM TIME TO TIME. LIGHT
AND VARIABLE WINDS WILL THEN OCCUR UNTIL AROUND 18/16Z.
THEREAFTER...EXPECT NWLY WINDS AT 12-16 KTS AND GUSTS TO 22 KTS AT
MOST LOCATIONS...WITH THE EXCEPTION OF KSAD WHERE SPEEDS OF 15-20
KTS AND GUSTS TO 35 KTS WILL BE POSSIBLE. AVIATION DISCUSSION NOT
UPDATED FOR TAF AMENDMENTS.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...DRY CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL INTO THE MIDDLE OF NEXT
WEEK. IN GENERAL...20-FOOT WINDS EAST OF TUCSON DURING THE AFTERNOON
HOURS THROUGH THE WEEKEND WILL BE NORTHWESTERLY AT 12-16 MPH WITH
GUSTS OF 20-25 MPH. THE EXCEPTION IS THIS AFTERNOON...WHEN WINDS
OF 20-25 MPH AND GUSTS TO 35 OR 40 MPH ARE POSSIBLE IN THE GILA
RIVER VALLEY INCLUDING SAFFORD. COMBINED WITH MINIMUM RH VALUES
AROUND 10 TO 15 PERCENT...RED FLAG CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED FOR
NORTHEASTERN PORTIONS OF FIRE WEATHER ZONE 152 INCLUDING EASTERN
GRAHAM AND SOUTHERN GREENLEE COUNTIES.

LESS WIND IS ANTICIPATED EARLY NEXT WEEK BEFORE ANOTHER ROUND OF
GUSTY WINDS AND PERHAPS SOME RAIN MAY OCCUR LATE NEXT WEEK AS
ANOTHER WEATHER SYSTEM APPROACHES FROM THE WEST.

&&

.TWC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...RED FLAG WARNING TODAY FOR
     NORTHEAST PORTIONS OF FIRE WEATHER ZONE 152...INCLUDING
     SAFFORD...EASTERN GRAHAM COUNTY AND SOUTHERN GREENLEE
     COUNTY.

&&

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MEYER/RASMUSSEN