Flash Flood Warning 37, NWS Tucson, AZ

529 
WGUS75 KTWC 222154
FFSTWC

FLASH FLOOD STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TUCSON AZ
254 PM MST SAT AUG 22 2015

AZC023-222300-
/O.CON.KTWC.FF.W.0037.000000T0000Z-150822T2300Z/
/00000.0.ER.000000T0000Z.000000T0000Z.000000T0000Z.OO/
SANTA CRUZ AZ-
254 PM MST SAT AUG 22 2015

...THE FLASH FLOOD WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 400 PM MST FOR
EASTERN SANTA CRUZ COUNTY...

AT 251 PM MST...DOPPLER RADAR INDICATED THAT HEAVY RAIN HAS 
DIMINISHED ACROSS EASTERN SANTA CRUZ COUNTY. A FEW ADDITIONAL STORMS 
IS POSSIBLE OVER THE NEXT HALF HOUR. RUNOFF FROM THE EARLIER STORMS 
IS LIKELY STILL OCCURRING WHICH WILL CONTINUE THE THREAT OF FLASH 
FLOODING...ESPECIALLY FOR AREAS NEAR THE PATAGONIA MOUNTAINS WHICH 
SAW THE HEAVIEST OF THE RAINFALL.
 
SOME LOCATIONS THAT MAY EXPERIENCE FLOODING INCLUDE... 
PATAGONIA...CANELO...PATAGONIA LAKE...SONOITA... AND ELGIN.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

TURN AROUND...DONT DROWN WHEN ENCOUNTERING FLOODED ROADS. MOST FLOOD
DEATHS OCCUR IN VEHICLES.

&&

LAT...LON 3172 11046 3134 11047 3134 11088 3172 11083

$$

220 
WGUS75 KTWC 222258
FFSTWC

FLASH FLOOD STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TUCSON AZ
358 PM MST SAT AUG 22 2015

AZC023-222308-
/O.EXP.KTWC.FF.W.0037.000000T0000Z-150822T2300Z/
/00000.0.ER.000000T0000Z.000000T0000Z.000000T0000Z.OO/
SANTA CRUZ AZ-
358 PM MST SAT AUG 22 2015

...THE FLASH FLOOD WARNING FOR EASTERN SANTA CRUZ COUNTY WILL EXPIRE
AT 400 PM MST...

FLOOD WATERS ARE RECEDING...AND ARE NO LONGER EXPECTED TO POSE A
THREAT TO LIFE OR PROPERTY. PLEASE CONTINUE TO HEED ANY ROAD
CLOSURES.

LAT...LON 3172 11046 3134 11047 3134 11088 3172 11083

$$

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TUCSON AZ
920 AM MST SAT AUG 22 2015

.SYNOPSIS...TYPICAL MONSOON DAY EXPECTED TODAY WITH A CHANCE OF
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING. CONDITIONS ARE
FAVORABLE FOR AN INCREASE IN THE STRENGTH AND COVERAGE OF STORMS
SUNDAY AND MONDAY. SOME STORMS WILL GENERATE STRONG WINDS AND HEAVY
RAIN. THE INCREASED MOISTURE WILL ALSO KEEP DAYTIME TEMPERATURES
CLOSER TO SEASONAL AVERAGES. FOR THE SECOND HALF OF THE NEW
WEEK...BUILDING HIGH PRESSURE WILL TEND TO SUPPRESS THUNDERSTORM
COVERAGE WHILE BRINGING HOTTER TEMPERATURES.

&&

.DISCUSSION...LIKE YESTERDAY...THE MORNING KTWC SOUNDING HAS SOME
GOOD PARTS AND BAD PARTS. THE MOISTURE PROFILE IS NICE ALONG WITH
GREAT CONDITIONAL INSTABILITY. HOWEVER OUR FLOW IS SO WEAK. NO
SHEAR...AND STORM STRUCTURE WILL STRUGGLE AS THEY APPROACH MATURITY.
IN MANY WAYS IT LOOKS SIMILAR TO YESTERDAY (OUR COVERAGE DID NOT
QUITE REACH THE POTENTIAL SUGGESTED BY THE MOISTURE AND INSTABILITY
PROFILE OF THE ATMOSPHERE). AS THE CURRENT FORECAST SUGGESTS OUR
FLOW BACKS AROUND TO A MUCH MORE FAVORABLE REGIME TOMORROW. WE'RE
TEMPTED TO PUNT AND SAY THINGS WILL BE SIMILAR TODAY BEFORE THE BIG
UP DAY TOMORROW...BUT THERE ARE SOME SUBTLE DIFFERENCES THAT MAY TIP
THE SCALE TO A BUSIER DAY TODAY. OUR PROFILE ACROSS THE AREA
SUGGESTS A LITTLE LESS CONVECTIVE INHIBITION TO START THE DAY AND
SUBSEQUENTLY A SLIGHTLY LOWER CONVECTIVE TEMPERATURE. AS SUCH WE'RE
GOING TO MASSAGE THE FORECAST TO REFLECT THIS...WITH AN INCREASE IN
STORM COVERAGE AND EARLIER ONSET. SUNDAY STILL LOOKS BETTER FOR
ORGANIZED STORMS...BUT TODAY MAY BE A BIT UNDERDONE IN THE CURRENT
FORECAST. UPDATES WILL BE OUT SHORTLY.

OTHERWISE...PLEASE SEE THE PREVIOUS DISCUSSION BELOW FOR ADDITIONAL
DETAILS.

&&

.AVIATION...VALID THRU 23/18Z.
FEW-SCT MID LEVEL CLOUDS AROUND 7-10K FT THROUGH THE EARLY MORNING
HOURS...WITH SCT TO LOCALLY BKN CLOUDS AT 8-12K FT THIS AFTERNOON
AND EVENING WITH SCT SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS DEVELOPING. BRIEF MVFR
CONDITIONS...ALONG WITH STRONG GUSTY WINDS POSSIBLE IN AN AROUND
SHRA/TSRA. OTHERWISE... WINDS WILL GENERALLY BE LIGHT AND TERRAIN
DRIVEN. AVIATION DISCUSSION NOT UPDATED FOR TAF AMENDMENTS.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...MOISTURE WILL CONTINUE TO INCREASE WITH SCATTERED
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS EXPECTED THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING WITH
AN EMPHASIS ON AREAS FROM TUCSON AND POINTS EASTWARD.
THEREAFTER...MOISTURE AND THUNDERSTORMS CHANCES WILL INCREASE AND
SPREAD THROUGHOUT SOUTHEAST ARIZONA SUNDAY INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK.
EXPECT A DECREASE IN SHOWER AND THUNDERSTORMS DURING THE MIDDLE TO
LATTER PART OF NEXT WEEK WITH RISING TEMPERATURES.  WINDS WILL BE
TYPICAL FOR MID AUGUST AND GENERALLY LESS THAN 15 MPH WITH AFTERNOON
GUSTINESS...ESPECIALLY IN THE GILA RIVER VALLEY.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION...UPPER RIDGE IS IN THE PROCESS OF RECONSOLIDATING
TO OUR EAST WHICH WILL MAKE FOR INTERESTING WEATHER IN THE NOT TOO
DISTANT FUTURE.  FOR TODAY AS THE PROCESS TAKES PLACE WE WILL HAVE
SOMEWHAT SIMILAR ENVIRONMENTAL CONDITIONS AS YESTERDAY WITH THE MAIN
DIFFERENCE BEING LESS CAPE TO START WITH DUE TO LOWER LEVELS OF
MOISTURE /PW CURRENTLY AROUND 1.20/.  FLOW REMAINS LIGHT AND NO REAL
NOTABLE FEATURE TO HELP THINGS ALONG...SO ISOLATED TO LOCALLY
SCATTERED CONVECTION THAT IS NOT AS VIGOROUS AS FRIDAY.  TEMPS
SIMILAR AS WELL.

BY SUNDAY THE UPPER HIGH IS ESTABLISHED WELL TO THE EAST WITH EAST
TO SOUTHEAST FLOW ACROSS THE AREA AND INCREASED ATMOSPHERIC
MOISTURE.  THAT COMBINED WITH A DISTURBANCE OVER NORTHERN SONORA
BEING DIRECTED OUR WAY SHOULD BE GOOD FOR AN INCREASE IN THE AMOUNT
AND STRENGTH OF STORMS LATER SUNDAY INTO MONDAY ACROSS MUCH OF THE
AREA...DEPENDING ON THE TRACK OF THE DISTURBANCE.  STILL HAVE
DISCREPANCIES IN THE TIMING AND EXACT PATH OF THIS DISTURBANCE BUT
AT THIS TIME IT APPEARS THAT THE FOCUS WILL BE LATE SUNDAY INTO
MONDAY WHICH IS WHERE WE HAVE OUR HIGHEST POPS.

WITH INCREASED CLOUD COVER BOTH DAYS TEMPS WILL BE NORMAL OR
SLIGHTLY BELOW FOR THE AFTERNOON...AND MAY BE A BIT COOLER THAN WHAT
I/M CARRYING FOR MONDAY DEPENDING ON CLOUD COVER AND PRECIP.

FAVORABLE SOUTHERLY FLOW CONTINUES TUESDAY INTO WEDNESDAY WITH THE
UPPER HIGH NUDGING OUR WAY.  THIS SHOULD BE GOOD FOR SCATTERED
CONVECTION EACH DAY WITH GRADUALLY WARMING TEMPERATURES.

BEYOND THAT...MODELS CONTINUE LEANING TOWARD A BROAD STRONG RIDGE
DEVELOPING OVER THE WESTERN STATES THANKS TO A DEEPENING TROUGH OFF
THE WEST COAST.  THIS IS IN RESPONSE TO THE REMAINS OF TYPHOON
ATSANI BEING INGESTED INTO THE WESTERLIES AND AMPLIFYING THE
PATTERN.  THIS SCENARIO BEING SUPPORTED BY ENSEMBLE TRENDS AND WOULD
RESULT IN A STRONG RIDGE BUILDING JUST WEST OF OUR AREA AGAIN WHICH
WOULD SIGNIFICANTLY SUPPRESS CONVECTION ACROSS THE REGION AS WELL AS
CRANK UP THE HEAT ONCE AGAIN.  I HAVE RAISED TEMPS LATE IN THE NEXT
WEEK SEVERAL DEGREES...SETTLING TO WITHIN A FEW DEGREES OF RECORDS.
HOWEVER LOW LEVEL THICKNESS FIELDS SUGGEST IT COULD BE WARMER THAN
WHAT I HAVE.  CERNIGLIA

&&

.TWC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...NONE.

&&

VISIT US ON FACEBOOK...TWITTER...YOUTUBE...AND AT WEATHER.GOV/TUCSON

SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TUCSON AZ
1136 AM MST SAT AUG 22 2015

AZZ507-221915-
UPPER SAN PEDRO RIVER VALLEY INCLUDING SIERRA VISTA/BENSON AZ-
1136 AM MST SAT AUG 22 2015

...SIGNIFICANT WEATHER ADVISORY FOR WEST CENTRAL COCHISE COUNTY UNTIL
1215 PM MST...

AT 1135 AM MST...DOPPLER RADAR WAS TRACKING A STRONG THUNDERSTORM
WEST OF TOMBSTONE NEAR FAIRBANK...MOVING NORTHEAST AT 5 TO 10 MPH.

HALF INCH HAIL AND WINDS IN EXCESS OF 45 MPH WILL BE POSSIBLE WITH
THIS STORM ALONG WITH HEAVY RAIN.

LOCATIONS IMPACTED INCLUDE...
HUACHUCA CITY...WHETSTONE...CHARLESTON AND FAIRBANK.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

HEAVY RAINFALL IS ALSO OCCURRING WITH THIS STORM...AND MAY LEAD TO
FLOODING. DO NOT DRIVE YOUR VEHICLE THROUGH FLOODED ROADWAYS.

&&

LAT...LON 3156 11020 3167 11040 3183 11024 3171 11008
TIME...MOT...LOC 1835Z 225DEG 8KT 3170 11024

MEYER

SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TUCSON AZ
1144 AM MST SAT AUG 22 2015

AZZ508-511-221930-
EASTERN COCHISE COUNTY BELOW 5000 FEET INCLUDING DOUGLAS/WILLCOX AZ-
GALIURO AND PINALENO MOUNTAINS INCLUDING MOUNT GRAHAM AZ-
1144 AM MST SAT AUG 22 2015

...SIGNIFICANT WEATHER ADVISORY FOR NORTH CENTRAL COCHISE COUNTY
UNTIL 1230 PM MST...

AT 1143 AM MST...DOPPLER RADAR WAS TRACKING A STRONG THUNDERSTORM
ABOUT 9 MILES NORTHWEST OF WILLCOX...MOVING EAST AT 5 TO 10 MPH.

HALF INCH HAIL AND WIND GUSTS UP TO 50 MPH WILL BE POSSIBLE WITH THIS
STORM...ALONG WITH HEAVY RAIN.

THIS STORM WILL REMAIN OVER MAINLY REMOTE AREAS OF NORTH CENTRAL
COCHISE COUNTY.

THIS STORM MAY INTENSIFY...SO BE CERTAIN TO MONITOR LOCAL RADIO AND
TV STATIONS...AS WELL AS LOCAL CABLE TV OUTLETS...FOR ADDITIONAL
INFORMATION AND POSSIBLE WARNINGS FROM THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE.

LAT...LON 3225 11003 3242 11007 3242 10980 3225 10987
TIME...MOT...LOC 1843Z 256DEG 7KT 3234 10996

MEYER

SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TUCSON AZ
1211 PM MST SAT AUG 22 2015

AZZ507-221945-
UPPER SAN PEDRO RIVER VALLEY INCLUDING SIERRA VISTA/BENSON AZ-
1211 PM MST SAT AUG 22 2015

...SIGNIFICANT WEATHER ADVISORY FOR SOUTHWESTERN COCHISE COUNTY UNTIL
1245 PM MST...

AT 1210 PM MST...DOPPLER RADAR WAS TRACKING A STRONG THUNDERSTORM
NORTHWEST OF HUACHUCA CITY...MOVING SOUTHEAST AT 5 MPH.

HALF INCH HAIL...HEAVY RAIN AND WIND GUSTS UP TO 50 MPH WILL BE
POSSIBLE WITH THIS STORM.

LOCATIONS IMPACTED INCLUDE...
NW SIERRA VISTA...HUACHUCA CITY AND WHETSTONE.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

FREQUENT CLOUD TO GROUND LIGHTNING IS OCCURRING WITH THIS STORM.
LIGHTNING CAN STRIKE 15 MILES AWAY FROM A THUNDERSTORM. SEEK A SAFE
SHELTER INSIDE A BUILDING OR VEHICLE.

&&

LAT...LON 3166 11043 3172 11038 3170 11027 3159 11036
TIME...MOT...LOC 1910Z 303DEG 6KT 3166 11035

SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TUCSON AZ
1235 PM MST SAT AUG 22 2015

AZZ508-512-222000-
EASTERN COCHISE COUNTY BELOW 5000 FEET INCLUDING DOUGLAS/WILLCOX AZ-
CHIRICAHUA MOUNTAINS INCLUDING CHIRICAHUA NATIONAL MONUMENT AZ-
1235 PM MST SAT AUG 22 2015

...SIGNIFICANT WEATHER ADVISORY FOR EASTERN COCHISE COUNTY UNTIL 100
PM MST...

AT 1234 PM MST...DOPPLER RADAR WAS TRACKING A STRONG THUNDERSTORM
OVER PARADISE. THIS STORM WAS NEARLY STATIONARY.

HALF INCH HAIL AND WINDS IN EXCESS OF 40 MPH WILL BE POSSIBLE WITH
THIS STORM.

LOCATIONS IMPACTED INCLUDE...
PARADISE AND PORTAL.

LAT...LON 3194 10925 3203 10927 3208 10915 3190 10913
TIME...MOT...LOC 1934Z 262DEG 2KT 3199 10918

SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TUCSON AZ
129 PM MST SAT AUG 22 2015

AZZ503-222100-
UPPER SANTA CRUZ RIVER AND ALTAR VALLEYS INCLUDING NOGALES AZ-
129 PM MST SAT AUG 22 2015

...SIGNIFICANT WEATHER ADVISORY FOR SOUTH CENTRAL SANTA CRUZ COUNTY
UNTIL 200 PM MST...

AT 128 PM MST...DOPPLER RADAR WAS TRACKING A STRONG THUNDERSTORM NEAR
NOGALES...MOVING SOUTH AT 10 MPH.

WIND GUSTS UP TO 50 MPH WILL BE POSSIBLE WITH THIS STORM ALONG WITH
BRIEF TORRENTIAL RAINFALL.

LOCATIONS IMPACTED INCLUDE...
NOGALES AND RIO RICO SOUTHWEST.

LAT...LON 3141 11106 3143 11099 3133 11085 3133 11105
TIME...MOT...LOC 2028Z 345DEG 9KT 3138 11101

CARLAW