Alert archive / Tennessee / Mesoscale Discussions in 2015
Mesoscale Discussion 1069
The Storm Prediction Center issued this mesoscale discussion at Jun 19, 2015, 4:22 AM CDT for 4 states. It was in force for 53 min.
The area
The outline as issued.
The facts
- Issued
- Jun 19, 2015, 4:22 AM CDT (09:22 UTC)
- Expired
- Jun 19, 2015, 5:15 AM CDT
- In force
- 53 min
- Issued by
- the Storm Prediction Center
- Chance of a watch
- 5%
All 31 counties
Clay County, AR, Craighead County, AR, Crittenden County, AR, Cross County, AR, Greene County, AR, Mississippi County, AR, Poinsett County, AR, Ballard County, KY, Carlisle County, KY, Fulton County, KY, Graves County, KY, Hickman County, KY, McCracken County, KY, Dunklin County, MO, Mississippi County, MO, New Madrid County, MO, Pemiscot County, MO, Scott County, MO, Stoddard County, MO, Crockett County, TN, Dyer County, TN, Fayette County, TN, Gibson County, TN, Haywood County, TN, Lake County, TN, Lauderdale County, TN, Madison County, TN, Obion County, TN, Shelby County, TN, Tipton County, TN, Weakley County, TN
The radar
The Memphis radar (KNQA), 69 km from the middle of the area, began a volume at 09:24 UTC, the scan nearest the moment this went out.
Open the radar archive at this moment
The archived warnings, watches and discussions in force at that minute are drawn over the scan, this one among them.
The nearest sounding before it
Little Rock, AR (KBYH), launched 00:00Z, 9.4 hours before the alert went out and 127 km from the middle of its area. This is the routine balloon launch nearest before it, the air the forecaster had in hand, not a measurement taken for the alert.
- Mixed-layer CAPE
- 208 J/kg
- Mixed-layer CIN
- -34 J/kg
- Mixed-layer LCL
- 916 m above ground
- 0-6 km bulk shear
- 30 kt
- 0-1 km storm-relative helicity
- 169 m²/s²
- 0-3 km storm-relative helicity
- 214 m²/s²
- Significant tornado parameter
- 0.1
- Supercell composite
- 1.1
The text
As transmitted, in the capitals the NWS used until 2016.
096
ACUS11 KWNS 190922
SWOMCD
SPC MCD 190922
TNZ000-KYZ000-ILZ000-MOZ000-ARZ000-191015-
MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 1069
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0422 AM CDT FRI JUN 19 2015
AREAS AFFECTED...NERN AR / WRN TN / FAR SERN MO / FAR WRN KY
CONCERNING...SEVERE POTENTIAL...WATCH UNLIKELY
VALID 190922Z - 191015Z
PROBABILITY OF WATCH ISSUANCE...5 PERCENT
SUMMARY...LOCALLY GUSTY WINDS MAY ACCOMPANY THE STRONGEST SHOWERS
AND THUNDERSTORMS OVER THE AREA EARLY THIS MORNING. A WATCH IS NOT
ANTICIPATED.
DISCUSSION...RECENT TRENDS IN MOSAIC RADAR DATA INDICATE AN INCREASE
IN CONVECTIVE COVERAGE AND INTENSITY OVER THE DISCUSSION AREA WITH A
STORM EXHIBITING SOME SUPERCELL CHARACTERISTICS OVER MISSISSIPPI
COUNTY AR AS OF 910Z. WHILE THE AIR MASS IS ONLY MARGINALLY
UNSTABLE...FORCING FOR ASCENT ASSOCIATED WITH THE DEEP-LAYER CYCLONE
OVER NRN AR COUPLED WITH AN ENHANCEMENT OF LOWER- TO
MID-TROPOSPHERIC FLOW IS YIELDING AN ENVIRONMENT SUPPORTIVE OF SOME
STORM ORGANIZATION. WEAK LOW-LEVEL LAPSE RATES SHOULD LIMIT A
MEANINGFUL RISK FOR DAMAGING OUTFLOW WINDS AND/OR BRIEF TORNADOES.
HOWEVER...GUSTY WINDS MAY STILL ACCOMPANY THE STRONGEST STORMS EARLY
THIS MORNING.
..MEAD.. 06/19/2015
...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT...
ATTN...WFO...PAH...MEG...
LAT...LON 35709103 36559061 37168949 37138888 36978852 36578841
36148840 35288883 35078974 35019024 35019058 35129080
35709103SPC that day
Everything else SPC issued on the same UTC day.
| Issued | Product | Office | Counties | Lasted |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Jun 19, 12:48 PM CDT | Mesoscale Discussion | SPC | Crittenden, Daviess, Henderson, Livingston, Union, Webster | 117 min |
Nearby
Mesoscale Discussions in Tennessee, 2015Mesoscale Discussions in Arkansas, 2015Mesoscale Discussions in Kentucky, 2015Every mesoscale discussion in 2015
Sources
The product and its follow-ups from the Iowa Environmental Mesonet's archive of National Weather Service and Storm Prediction Center text; the sounding from the Mesonet's radiosonde archive; radar from the NEXRAD Level II archive.