Alert archive / Ohio / Mesoscale Discussions in 2015

Mesoscale Discussion 1021

June 14, 20155 counties in Indiana; 53 counties in Ohio; 5 counties in Pennsylvania

The Storm Prediction Center issued this mesoscale discussion at Jun 14, 2015, 7:59 PM EDT for 5 counties in Indiana; 53 counties in Ohio; 5 counties in Pennsylvania. It was in force for 61 min.

The area

The outline as issued.

The facts

Issued: Jun 14, 2015, 7:59 PM EDT (23:59 UTC)
Expired: Jun 14, 2015, 9:00 PM EDT
In force: 61 min
Issued by: the Storm Prediction Center

All 63 counties

Adams County, IN, Fayette County, IN, Jay County, IN, Randolph County, IN, Wayne County, IN, Allen County, OH, Ashland County, OH, Ashtabula County, OH, Auglaize County, OH, Carroll County, OH, Champaign County, OH, Clark County, OH, Columbiana County, OH, Coshocton County, OH, Crawford County, OH, Cuyahoga County, OH, Darke County, OH, Defiance County, OH, Delaware County, OH, Erie County, OH, Franklin County, OH, Geauga County, OH, Hancock County, OH, Hardin County, OH, Henry County, OH, Holmes County, OH, Huron County, OH, Knox County, OH, Lake County, OH, Licking County, OH, Logan County, OH, Lorain County, OH, Lucas County, OH, Mahoning County, OH, Marion County, OH, Medina County, OH, Mercer County, OH, Miami County, OH, Montgomery County, OH, Morrow County, OH, Ottawa County, OH, Paulding County, OH, Portage County, OH, Preble County, OH, Putnam County, OH, Richland County, OH, Sandusky County, OH, Seneca County, OH, Shelby County, OH, Stark County, OH, Summit County, OH, Trumbull County, OH, Tuscarawas County, OH, Union County, OH, Van Wert County, OH, Wayne County, OH, Wood County, OH, Wyandot County, OH, Crawford County, PA, Erie County, PA, Lawrence County, PA, Mercer County, PA, Venango County, PA

The radar

The Cleveland radar (KCLE), 84 km from the middle of the area, began a volume at 00:01 UTC, the scan nearest the moment this went out.

Open the radar archive at this moment

The archived warnings, watches and discussions in force at that minute are drawn over the scan, this one among them.

The nearest sounding before it

Detroit, MI (KDTX), launched 12:00Z, 12.0 hours before the alert went out and 173 km from the middle of its area. This is the routine balloon launch nearest before it, the air the forecaster had in hand, not a measurement taken for the alert.

Skew-T log-p

Temperature in red, dew point in green, the mixed-layer parcel dashed.

Hodograph

The wind turning with height, colored by layer: ground to 1 km, 1 to 3 km, 3 to 6 km, 6 to 10 km.

Mixed-layer CAPE: 285 J/kg
Mixed-layer CIN: -21 J/kg
Mixed-layer LCL: 490 m above ground
0-6 km bulk shear: 36 kt
0-1 km storm-relative helicity: 130 m²/s²
0-3 km storm-relative helicity: 145 m²/s²
Significant tornado parameter: 0.0
Supercell composite: 0.7

Open this sounding in Storm Lab

The text

As transmitted, in the capitals the NWS used until 2016.

678 
ACUS11 KWNS 142359
SWOMCD
SPC MCD 142359 
PAZ000-OHZ000-MIZ000-INZ000-150100-

MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 1021
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0659 PM CDT SUN JUN 14 2015

AREAS AFFECTED...NRN OH...FAR NW PA

CONCERNING...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH 299...

VALID 142359Z - 150100Z

THE SEVERE WEATHER THREAT FOR SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH 299
CONTINUES.

SUMMARY...WHILE A FEW STORMS MAY PERSIST AFTER 01Z...THE OVERALL SVR
THREAT WILL CONTINUE TO DECREASE. WW 299 WILL BE ALLOWED TO EXPIRE
01Z WITH NO ADDITIONAL WATCHES ANTICIPATED ACROSS THIS AREA.

DISCUSSION...REGIONAL RADAR DATA SHOWS NUMEROUS TSTM CLUSTERS MOVING
ACROSS NRN OH AND WRN PA. ALTHOUGH A FEW STRONG UPDRAFTS
EXIST...RADAR TRENDS HAVE SHOWN A GRADUAL DIMINISHING OF STORM
COVERAGE WITH STORM STRENGTH DECREASING AS WELL. CURRENTLY...THE
BEST OVERALL ENVIRONMENT EXISTS ACROSS NE OH AND NW PA WHERE VAD
DATA FROM PBZ AND CLE SAMPLED 0-6 KM BULK SHEAR OF 39 AND 26
KT...RESPECTIVELY...AND MESOANALYSIS INDICATES MLCAPE AROUND 1500 J
PER KG. WHILE TSTMS WILL LIKELY PERSIST ACROSS THIS AREA AND ALSO
AHEAD OF THE MCV NEAR AOH AND VES IN W-CNTRL OH...A CONTINUED
DECREASE IN STORM COVERAGE AND INTENSITY IS EXPECTED GIVEN THE LOSS
OF DAYTIME HEATING AND LACK OF A MORE ROBUST KINEMATIC ENVIRONMENT.
AS SUCH...WW 299 WILL BE ALLOWED TO EXPIRE AT 01Z WITH ADDITIONAL
WATCH ISSUANCE NOT ANTICIPATED.

..MOSIER.. 06/14/2015

...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT...

ATTN...WFO...CTP...PBZ...CLE...ILN...DTX...IWX...IND...

LAT...LON   41548425 41958308 42618010 41557957 40328101 39588519
            40718522 41548425

SPC that day

Everything else SPC issued on the same UTC day.

Issued	Product	Office	Counties	Lasted
Jun 14, 1:20 PM EDT	Mesoscale Discussion	SPC	Adams, Allen, Benton, Blackford, Boone, Carroll and 40 more	115 min
Jun 14, 1:46 PM EDT	Severe Thunderstorm Watch	SPC	Adams, Allen, Blackford, Boone, Carroll, Cass and 46 more	7 hr
Jun 14, 4:14 PM EDT	Mesoscale Discussion	SPC	Adams, Allen, Blackford, Boone, Carroll, Cass and 40 more	2 hr
Jun 14, 2:06 PM EDT	Mesoscale Discussion	SPC	Adams, Allegheny, Armstrong, Beaver, Bedford, Blair and 19 more	84 min
Jun 14, 7:08 PM EDT	Mesoscale Discussion	SPC	Berks, Bucks, Carbon, Chester, Delaware, Lehigh and 4 more	52 min

Nearby

Mesoscale Discussions in Ohio, 2015 Mesoscale Discussions in Indiana, 2015 Mesoscale Discussions in Pennsylvania, 2015 Every mesoscale discussion in 2015

Sources

The product and its follow-ups from the Iowa Environmental Mesonet's archive of National Weather Service and Storm Prediction Center text; the sounding from the Mesonet's radiosonde archive; radar from the NEXRAD Level II archive.