River Flood Warning 113, NWS Springfield, MO

Area Forecast Discussion...UPDATED
National Weather Service SPRINGFIELD MO
526 AM CST FRI DEC 25 2015

...Updated Aviation Section...

.SHORT TERM...(Today and Tonight)
Issued at 245 AM CST FRI DEC 25 2015

A rather mild Christmas morning is underway across the region,
with early morning temperatures ranging from the upper 30s to mid
40s.

High pressure currently centered over central Iowa will push east
today, with surface winds across the area becoming easterly by
afternoon. Temperatures will remain above average, topping out in
the low to mid 50s. A few showers may try to skirt the far
southeastern corner of the CWA this afternoon, but conditions
should be dry for most.

By tonight, winds will become southeasterly, with moisture
advection cranking up across the region. Rain showers will begin
to expand across the area after dark tonight, gradually increasing
in both coverage and intensity. A few rumbles of thunder will be
possible by Saturday morning.

.LONG TERM...(Saturday through Thursday)
Issued at 245 AM CST FRI DEC 25 2015

Saturday through Sunday night continue to look exceptionally
rainy, with increasingly high confidence in a significant rainfall
event for the region. A warm front will slowly lift north to
roughly I-44 Saturday morning, then stall out just along or
perhaps a bit south of the Interstate. This front will serve as a
focus for heavy rain and scattered thunderstorms, especially
Saturday afternoon through Sunday morning. By the time all is said
and done later Monday, 5-8 inches of rain appears likely along and
south of the I-44 corridor, with lesser amounts north (though a
still significant 2-4 inches).

Given the combination of already saturated soils and the complex
terrain of the southern Missouri Ozarks, a significant flooding
event appears increasingly likely to unfold. The long duration and
widespread nature of this rain suggests that in addition to the
flash flood threat, considerable river flooding will also be a
major concern. A Flash Flood Watch will be in effect starting
Saturday afternoon for the southeastern 3/4 or so of the forecast
area.

In addition to the flood threat, there is a conditional severe
weather threat for the area as well starting late tonight and
continuing through Saturday. Shear will be more than sufficient
for organized thunderstorms, though instability will be
questionable. I don't think this will be a widespread threat by
any means, but something to keep an eye on in addition to the
heavy rain.

The front is then expected to sag south a bit on Sunday, which may
bring the heavy rain axis a little further south (perhaps just
south of US 60 or so). Surface winds will also start to increase
quite a bit on Sunday, with northerly winds likely flirting with
wind advisory criteria at times. These winds will usher in colder
air, with temperatures Sunday in the upper 30s to around 40.

For now, believe that we will stay entirely rain Sunday night as
the upper low lifts north through the Arklatex region. We may have
to watch the corner of Bourbon County KS for a little snow mixing
in at times, but think this should be the exception rather than
rule. Confidence in this portion of the forecast is below average,
however.

Big bust potential heading into Monday as medium range
models diverge considerably. There is high confidence that
precipitation will continue. The question becomes, what type? The
operational runs of the GFS and GEM have come in decidedly further
south and east with the evolution of the upper low ejecting out of
the Plains. These runs are outliers when compared to their
respective ensembles/ensemble means, as well as the ECMWF and
SREF.

Looking at five wave charts, digging energy is preferred over the
Plains, with ejection of energy to the northeast over our neck of
the woods. This favors the more westward solutions. At this point,
the ECMWF is a decent compromise and have generally followed this.
Have kept precipitation all rain for Monday, with a mention of a
light rain/snow mix as the system departs Monday night. If the
more westward track of the upper low remains the preferred
solution, temperatures Monday will need to be increased several
degrees.

After a quiet, seasonably cool Tuesday, a fast moving disturbance
is progged to move through the region during the midweek time
frame. A few showers are possible. Heading into late next week,
a highly amplified flow aloft will develop, with northwest flow
setting up overhead. This will result in at/below average
temperatures and mainly dry conditions.

&&

.AVIATION...(For the 12Z TAFS through 12Z Saturday Morning)
Issued at 526 AM CST FRI DEC 25 2015

It's the proverbial calm before the storm. VFR conditions will be
the rule today through this evening. Mid/high level moisture will
be on the increase late this afternoon into this evening.
Ceilings will begin to drop at BBG late this evening as southeast
flow promotes upslope from the lake. IFR ceilings are expected
overnight, with showers beginning to develop in scattered
fashion. MVFR ceilings will develop at SGF/JLN late tonight
showers beginning to develop by daybreak.

&&

.SGF Watches/Warnings/Advisories...
MO...Flash Flood Watch from Saturday afternoon through Monday morning
     for MOZ057-058-069>071-079>083-088>098-101>106.

KS...NONE.
&&

SHORT TERM...Boxell
LONG TERM...Boxell/Gagan
AVIATION...Gagan

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SPRINGFIELD MO
402 AM CST FRI DEC 25 2015

KSZ073-097-101-MOZ055>058-066>071-077>083-088>098-101>106-261015-
BOURBON-CRAWFORD-CHEROKEE-BENTON-MORGAN-MILLER-MARIES-VERNON-
ST. CLAIR-HICKORY-CAMDEN-PULASKI-PHELPS-BARTON-CEDAR-POLK-DALLAS-
LACLEDE-TEXAS-DENT-JASPER-DADE-GREENE-WEBSTER-WRIGHT-NEWTON-
LAWRENCE-CHRISTIAN-DOUGLAS-HOWELL-SHANNON-MCDONALD-BARRY-STONE-
TANEY-OZARK-OREGON-
402 AM CST FRI DEC 25 2015

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR PORTIONS OF THE MISSOURI
OZARKS AND EXTREME SOUTHEAST KANSAS.

.DAY ONE...TODAY AND TONIGHT.

WEATHER HAZARDS EXPECTED...

  LIMITED LIGHTNING RISK.
  LIMITED FOG RISK.

DISCUSSION...

  PATCHY FOG WILL BE POSSIBLE EARLY THIS MORNING ALONG AND NORTH
  OF A LINE FROM FORT SCOTT TO LAKE OF THE OZARKS. VISIBILITIES
  COULD DROP TO AROUND 1 MILE.

  RAIN AND A FEW THUNDERSTORMS WILL BEGIN TO AFFECT THE REGION
  AFTER MIDNIGHT TONIGHT.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY.

  SEVERAL PERIODS OF HEAVY RAINFALL ARE EXPECTED FROM SATURDAY
  MORNING THROUGH MONDAY. A SWATH OF 5 TO 8 INCHES OF RAINFALL
  APPEARS LIKELY ALONG AND SOUTH OF THE INTERSTATE 44 CORRIDOR.
  THESE RAINFALL AMOUNTS WOULD RESULT IN A POTENTIALLY
  SIGNIFICANT FLOODING EVENT. A FLASH FLOOD WATCH HAS BEEN ISSUED
  MUCH OF THE OUTLOOK AREA FROM SATURDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH MONDAY
  MORNING. AREA INTERESTS ARE URGED TO MONITOR THIS SITUATION
  CLOSELY.

  THERE IS ALSO A LIMITED THREAT FOR A FEW STRONG THUNDERSTORMS
  SATURDAY. THE POTENTIAL FOR SEVERE STORMS WILL BE HIGHLY
  DEPENDENT ON WHETHER OR NOT ENOUGH INSTABILITY CAN DEVELOP
  SOUTH OF A RETURNING WARM FRONT.

  GUSTY NORTHERLY WINDS ARE EXPECTED THIS WEEKEND ACROSS THE
  OSAGE PLAINS OF SOUTHEASTERN KANSAS AND WESTERN MISSOURI.

  A WINTRY MIX OF PRECIPITATION MAY OCCUR MONDAY NIGHT AND
  TUESDAY MORNINGS. THIS IS HIGHLY CONTINGENT ON COLD AIR MAKING
  IT INTO THE REGION. IF THE COLD AIR CAN MAKE IT INTO THE OZARKS
  SOME LIGHT SNOW OR FREEZING RAIN MAY OCCUR. LITTLE TO NO
  ACCUMULATIONS ARE EXPECTED AT THIS TIME HOWEVER.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

  SPOTTER ACTIVATION WILL NOT BE NEEDED THROUGH TONIGHT.

&&

MORE DETAILED INFORMATION CAN BE ACCESSED AT:
HTTP://WWW.WEATHER.GOV/SGF/SITREP(ALL LOWERCASE)

THIS PRODUCT IN GRAPHICAL FORMAT...ALONG WITH OTHER WEATHER...
HYDROLOGICAL AND CLIMATE INFORMATION...AT
HTTP://WWW.WEATHER.GOV/SGF(ALL LOWERCASE)

BOXELL