Flash Flood Warning 96, NWS Springfield, MO

723 
WGUS73 KSGF 081825
FFSSGF

FLASH FLOOD STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SPRINGFIELD MO
125 PM CDT TUE SEP 8 2015

MOC057-059-167-082130-
/O.CON.KSGF.FF.W.0096.000000T0000Z-150908T2130Z/
/00000.0.ER.000000T0000Z.000000T0000Z.000000T0000Z.OO/
DALLAS MO-DADE MO-POLK MO-
125 PM CDT TUE SEP 8 2015

...THE FLASH FLOOD WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 430 PM CDT FOR
DALLAS...DADE AND POLK COUNTIES...

AT 123 PM CDT...DOPPLER RADAR INDICATED HEAVY RAIN ACROSS THE WARNED 
AREA.  FLASH FLOODING IS EXPECTED TO BEGIN SHORTLY. AN AREA OF 
SHOWERS WITH EMBEDDED THUNDERSTORMS WILL CONTINUE TO TRACK ACROSS 
THE WARNED AREA THROUGH THE REMINDER OF THE AFTERNOON HOURS. 

CREEKS...STREAMS...AND LOW WATER CROSSINGS WILL BE ESPECIALLY
SUSCEPTIBLE TO THE DANGERS OF FLASH FLOODING.

THIS WARNING INCLUDES BUT IS NOT LIMITED TO THE FOLLOWING LOW WATER
CROSSINGS...
ROUTE H JUST NORTH OF PLEASANT HOPE...
ROUTE C NORTH OF BUFFALO AT LINDLEY CREEK...
HIGHWAY 32 EAST OF BUFFALO AT GREASY CREEK...
ROUTE AA AT THE POMME DE TERRE EAST OF BOLIVAR...
AND ROUTE W AT TURKEY CREEK JUST WEST OF EUDORA. 

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

A FLASH FLOOD WARNING MEANS THAT FLOODING IS IMMINENT OR OCCURRING.
RESIDENTS LIVING ALONG STREAMS AND CREEKS SHOULD TAKE IMMEDIATE
PRECAUTIONS TO PROTECT LIFE AND PROPERTY.  DO NOT ATTEMPT TO CROSS
SWIFTLY FLOWING WATERS OR WATERS OF UNKNOWN DEPTH BY FOOT OR BY
AUTOMOBILE.

&&

LAT...LON 3730 9406 3758 9406 3757 9362 3774 9361
      3784 9286 3749 9285 3749 9307 3743 9362
      3732 9362 3730 9370

$$

WISE

783 
WGUS73 KSGF 082127
FFSSGF

FLASH FLOOD STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SPRINGFIELD MO
427 PM CDT TUE SEP 8 2015

MOC057-059-167-082136-
/O.EXP.KSGF.FF.W.0096.000000T0000Z-150908T2130Z/
/00000.0.ER.000000T0000Z.000000T0000Z.000000T0000Z.OO/
DALLAS MO-DADE MO-POLK MO-
427 PM CDT TUE SEP 8 2015

...THE FLASH FLOOD WARNING FOR DALLAS...DADE AND POLK COUNTIES WILL
EXPIRE AT 430 PM CDT...

THE HEAVY RAIN HAS ENDED FOR NOW...AND FLOODING IS NO LONGER 
EXPECTED TO POSE A THREAT TO LIFE OR PROPERTY. ADDITIONAL RAINFALL 
IS EXPECTED THROUGH TONIGHT...WHICH COULD POSE A RISK FOR ADDITIONAL 
FLASH FLOODING. PLEASE CONTINUE TO HEED ANY ROAD CLOSURES.

LAT...LON 3730 9406 3758 9406 3757 9362 3774 9361
      3784 9286 3749 9285 3749 9307 3743 9362
      3732 9362 3730 9370

$$

GAGAN

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SPRINGFIELD MO
1137 AM CDT TUE SEP 8 2015

.MESOSCALE DISCUSSION...
Issued at 1110 AM CDT TUE SEP 08 2015

A very tropical airmass exists across the Ozarks and Southeast
Kansas late this morning. 12Z Upper air sounding measured 1.92
inches of precipitable water. This is nearly 150% of normal. An
area of showers and thunderstorms has persisted this morning
across all but south central Missouri. These storms are occuring
interacting with some weak elevated instability combined with a
weakening low level jet. These storms are very efficient rainfall
producers with 1 hour rainfall rates of 1-3 inches an hour. Flash
Flood Guidance values are relatively high due to dry weather as
of late however there could be some localized flooding due to the
efficiency of this rainfall. Wind Shear throughout the atmosphere
in currently weak which has precluded any severe thunderstorms so
far.

The surface cold front extends far back from NW Missouri into
Central Kansas. There are some breaks in the clouds in spots
across SW Missouri into SE Kansas. Short term model guidance is
suggesting that the current activity should continue through the
early afternoon hours. Other showers and thunderstorms will likely
develop along the cold front later this afternoon and continue
into the evening hours. There will continue to be some brief
breaks in the clouds in spots which will allow instability to
increase this afternoon. However better wind shear values will
remain displaced from the front further to the north, therefore
the risk of severe thunderstorms at this point still seems
marginal.

&&

.UPDATE...
Issued at 0624 AM CDT TUE SEP 08 2015

Have made some short term updates this morning to increase PoPs
over the western half or so of the forecast area. The southeastern
edge of the low level jet appears to have generated enough lift to
result in scattered thunderstorms over this region. This LLJ
initiated activity may wane for a few hours later this morning,
before convection again picks up ahead of the front.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(Today and Tonight)
Issued at 0320 AM CDT TUE SEP 08 2015

An upper level trough of low pressure will move east across the
northern and central Plains from today into tonight. This trough
will drive a cold front southeast into central Missouri and
southeastern Kansas this afternoon. Showers and thunderstorms are
expected to develop ahead of this feature and spread southeast
towards the I-44 corridor from late this morning into this
afternoon.

Showers and thunderstorms will then remain a good likelihood into
tonight ahead of that front, but the southeastward progression
and timing of storms is more in question. It is quite possible
that convective outflow becomes dominant and keeps the storms
progressing at a slow, but steady clip to the southeast. Many of
the high resolution convective allowing models (CAMs) indicate
this. On the other hand, global models indicate more in the way of
lingering precipitation throughout the night as the 850 mb front
will be slow to move through the area. At this time, we have
leaned slightly towards a quicker progression of showers and
thunderstorms from this afternoon into tonight. Even with that,
locally heavy rainfall will still be a good bet with some
locations receiving a solid 1-2" of rainfall.

As for hazards potential, the prospects for severe storms look
rather limited today and this evening given a lack of deep layer
and low level shear. Moderate amounts of instability may still
amount to a few strong to severe storms on a more local level. We
will have to watch for a localized flooding risk if we get any
training of storms. One other lower-end threat will be the
potential for fog late tonight if storms and clouds are quick
enough to clear across central Missouri. We have not included fog
in the forecast quite yet, but this concern will be passed along
to incoming shifts.

Temperatures today and tonight will be highly dependent on clouds
and convective coverage. We did not stray too far from a model
consensus approach given these uncertainties.

.LONG TERM...(Wednesday through Monday)
Issued at 0320 AM CDT TUE SEP 08 2015

That 850 mb front will then slowly move southeast across the
remainder of the Missouri Ozarks on Wednesday. Showers and
thunderstorms will remain possible along and ahead of this
feature, but will begin to end from northwest to southeast
throughout the day. Temperatures will be cooler behind that front
and given the precipitation and clouds. The coolest temperatures
may actually be across south- central Missouri on Wednesday where
precipitation and clouds will persist the longest. Highs may not
reach the 80 degree mark across this area. A lingering shower or
thunderstorm will then remain possible across southern Missouri
Wednesday evening, otherwise a quiet Wednesday night is expected.
We may have to again watch for fog potential.

After a dry Thursday, models continue to advertise short wave
energy digging southeast across the region Thursday night and
Friday. This wave will drive another cold front south through the
area from later Friday into Friday night. Showers and perhaps a
thunderstorm will be possible with this feature.

An even cooler and drier air mass will then filter into the area
behind that front and will lead to a fantastic weekend. Dry
weather can be expected with highs from the upper 60s to middle
70s. Low temperatures will range from the upper 40s to middle 50s.

&&

.AVIATION...(For the 12Z TAFS through 12Z Wednesday Morning)
Issued at 0624 AM CDT TUE SEP 08 2015

It looks to be a rather messy next 24 hours or so for the
terminals, as multiple rounds of showers/thunderstorms move
through the area. Outside of convection, VFR should prevail, but
expect MVFR or even IFR within TSRA. Convection will continue on a
periodic basis through much of the evening and the night, and have
continued with prevailing TSRA through the overnight hours.

Southwest winds should be fairly gusty today ahead of the
approaching front, with additional, higher gusts in and around
convection.

&&

.SGF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MO...NONE.
KS...NONE.
&&

MESOSCALE...Burchfield
UPDATE...Boxell
SHORT TERM...Schaumann
LONG TERM...Schaumann
AVIATION...Boxell

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SPRINGFIELD MO
1001 AM CDT TUE SEP 8 2015

KSZ073-097-101-MOZ055>058-066>071-077>083-088>098-101>106-091515-
BOURBON-CRAWFORD-CHEROKEE-BENTON-MORGAN-MILLER-MARIES-VERNON-
ST. CLAIR-HICKORY-CAMDEN-PULASKI-PHELPS-BARTON-CEDAR-POLK-DALLAS-
LACLEDE-TEXAS-DENT-JASPER-DADE-GREENE-WEBSTER-WRIGHT-NEWTON-
LAWRENCE-CHRISTIAN-DOUGLAS-HOWELL-SHANNON-MCDONALD-BARRY-STONE-
TANEY-OZARK-OREGON-
1001 AM CDT TUE SEP 8 2015

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR PORTIONS OF THE MISSOURI
OZARKS AND EXTREME SOUTHEAST KANSAS.

.DAY ONE...TODAY AND TONIGHT.

WEATHER HAZARDS EXPECTED...

  LIMITED HAIL RISK.
  LIMITED THUNDERSTORM WIND DAMAGE RISK.
  LIMITED FLOODING RISK.
  SIGNIFICANT LIGHTNING RISK.

DISCUSSION...

  SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS WILL CONTINUE THIS MORNING OVER PARTS
  OF THE MISSOURI OZARKS AND EXTREME SOUTHEAST KANSAS. SEVERE
  WEATHER IS NOT EXPECTED WITH THIS ACTIVITY...HOWEVER VERY HEAVY
  RAIN WILL OCCUR WITH THESE STORMS WITH SOME LOCALIZED FLOODING
  POSSIBLE.

  ADDITIONAL THUNDERSTORM DEVELOPMENT IS THEN EXPECTED THIS
  AFTERNOON AS A COLD FRONT BEGINS TO APPROACH THE REGION. THE
  MAIN THREAT FROM THESE STORMS WILL BE FREQUENT LIGHTNING AND
  LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL. THERE IS A LIMITED RISK FOR FLOODING IN
  AREAS THAT RECEIVE MULTIPLE ROUNDS OF THUNDERSTORMS TODAY AND
  TONIGHT. THE MAIN THREAT FOR FLOODING WOULD MAINLY BE CONFINED
  TO LOW WATER CROSSINGS WHICH TYPICALLY FLOOD.

  A FEW STRONG TO MARGINALLY SEVERE STORMS WILL ALSO BE POSSIBLE
  FROM THIS AFTERNOON INTO THIS EVENING WITH HAIL TO THE SIZE OF
  QUARTERS AND DAMAGING WIND GUSTS TO 60 MPH THE MAIN POTENTIAL
  SEVERE WEATHER HAZARDS.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY.

  THUNDERSTORMS WILL REMAIN POSSIBLE ON WEDNESDAY AS THAT FRONT
  MOVES SOUTHEAST ACROSS THE REMAINDER OF THE MISSOURI OZARKS.
  FREQUENT LIGHTNING AND BRIEF HEAVY RAINFALL WILL BE THE PRIMARY
  POTENTIAL HAZARDS.

  A FEW THUNDERSTORMS WILL THEN BE POSSIBLE ON FRIDAY AS ANOTHER
  COLD FRONT MOVES SOUTHEAST THROUGH THE OUTLOOK AREA.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

  SPOTTER ACTIVATION WILL NOT BE NEEDED THROUGH TONIGHT.

&&

MORE DETAILED INFORMATION CAN BE ACCESSED AT:
HTTP://WWW.WEATHER.GOV/SGF/SITREP(ALL LOWERCASE)

THIS PRODUCT IN GRAPHICAL FORMAT...ALONG WITH OTHER WEATHER...
HYDROLOGICAL AND CLIMATE INFORMATION...AT
HTTP://WWW.WEATHER.GOV/SGF(ALL LOWERCASE)