Flash Flood Warning 65, NWS Springfield, MO

166 
WGUS73 KSGF 201235
FFSSGF

FLASH FLOOD STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SPRINGFIELD MO
735 AM CDT MON JUL 20 2015

MOC039-217-201246-
/O.CAN.KSGF.FF.W.0065.000000T0000Z-150720T1300Z/
/00000.0.ER.000000T0000Z.000000T0000Z.000000T0000Z.OO/
CEDAR MO-VERNON MO-
735 AM CDT MON JUL 20 2015

...THE FLASH FLOOD WARNING HAS BEEN CANCELLED FOR VERNON AND WESTERN
CEDAR COUNTIES...

EXCESS RUNOFF FROM HEAVY RAIN HAS ENDED OVER THE WARNED AREA. STREAMS
AND CREEKS IN THE WARNED AREA HAVE RECEDED OR WERE BEGINNING TO
RECEDE...ENDING THE FLOOD THREAT. IF FLOODING HAS BEEN OBSERVED...
PLEASE REPORT IT TO YOUR LOCAL LAW ENFORCEMENT AGENCY.

LAT...LON 3798 9450 3792 9406 3790 9406 3790 9394
      3789 9386 3764 9395 3773 9454

$$

LINDENBERG

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SPRINGFIELD MO
1151 PM CDT Sun Jul 19 2015

.SHORT TERM...(This Evening through Monday)
Issued at 240 PM CDT SUN JUL 19 2015

A mid level impulse is currently moving across the northern part
of Missouri. An outflow boundary is currently located across
central Missouri near the Highway 54 corridor from earlier
convection. Elsewhere temperatures are in the lower 90s and the
heat index is between the upper 90s to 104 currently.

Short term models indicate the potential for a few showers and
storms to redevelop near that boundary across central Missouri
later this evening and overnight. This convection potential may
get a little help from the low level jet that will develop
tonight. The rest of the area should stay mostly dry and quiet tonight.

Have extended a portion of the heat advisory for tomorrow for
areas across southern Missouri and extreme southeast Kansas...mainly
south of the Highway 54 corridor. This is where most of the day
will be quiet weather and the warmest temperatures on Monday. More
clouds and scattered convection potential across central Missouri
will keep temperatures a tad bit cooler.

.LONG TERM...(Monday Night through Sunday)
Issued at 240 PM CDT SUN JUL 19 2015

A decent shortwave will begin to move into the area Monday evening
from the west. This will be the first of several opportunities
this week of widespread rainfall and thunderstorms. There may be
enough instability and wind shear for some large hail potential
and damaging wind gusts area wide with the best potential across
central and eastern Missouri. A frontal boundary will also slowly
meandering its way southward and kinda just hang out for a couple
of days across extreme southern Missouri.

Another wave will move along the mid level flow and across the
front on Tuesday afternoon and Tuesday night. This feature will
bring another good chance for showers and storms. PW values for
Monday night through Wednesday night will be between 2.0 and 2.25
inches which is rather on the high side again. This will mean that
convection will be efficient rain producers and heavy rainfall
will be possible. There will be widespread 1 to 3 inches of
rainfall expected through the middle of the week with isolated
higher amounts possible across southern Missouri. We will have to
look at the possibility of a Flash Flood Watch for a portion of the
area as confidence increases on this situation.

Temperatures will be cooler for the middle of the week with the
cloud cover and rain chances in the area. The upper level ridge
tries to rebuild itself across western Texas by the end of the
week. This may put the Missouri Ozarks in a slight northwest flow
around the upper level ridge. We will have to keep slight chances
of thunderstorms in the forecast through the end of the week with
this setup. Temperatures will warm back up to near seasonable
levels.

&&

.AVIATION...(For the 06Z TAFS through 06Z Monday Night)
Issued at 1146 PM CDT SUN JUL 19 2015

For the KSGF/KJLN/KBBG tafs: Scattered thunderstorms will occur
along a front that lies just north of the area and will need to
monitor closely. Otherwise vfr conditions are expected for much of
the taf period. The front will sag south into the area late in the
taf period and will cover with showers and vicinity thunder for
now for the last few hours of the taf period.

&&

.SGF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MO...HEAT ADVISORY until 7 PM CDT Monday FOR MOZ070-071-077>083-
     088>098-101>106.

KS...HEAT ADVISORY until 7 PM CDT Monday FOR KSZ097-101.

&&

SHORT TERM...Griffin
LONG TERM...Griffin
AVIATION...DSA

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SPRINGFIELD MO
1146 PM CDT SUN JUL 19 2015

KSZ073-097-101-MOZ055>058-066>071-077>083-088>098-101>106-210500-
BOURBON-CRAWFORD-CHEROKEE-BENTON-MORGAN-MILLER-MARIES-VERNON-
ST. CLAIR-HICKORY-CAMDEN-PULASKI-PHELPS-BARTON-CEDAR-POLK-DALLAS-
LACLEDE-TEXAS-DENT-JASPER-DADE-GREENE-WEBSTER-WRIGHT-NEWTON-
LAWRENCE-CHRISTIAN-DOUGLAS-HOWELL-SHANNON-MCDONALD-BARRY-STONE-
TANEY-OZARK-OREGON-
1146 PM CDT SUN JUL 19 2015

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR PORTIONS OF THE MISSOURI
OZARKS AND EXTREME SOUTHEAST KANSAS.

.DAY ONE...TONIGHT.

WEATHER HAZARDS EXPECTED...

  LIMITED HAIL RISK.
  LIMITED THUNDERSTORM WIND DAMAGE RISK.
  ELEVATED LIGHTNING RISK.

DISCUSSION...

SCATTERED THUNDERSTORM DEVELOPMENT IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE TO BE
POSSIBLE TONIGHT...MAINLY IN COUNTIES ALONG AND NORTH OF A LINE
FROM FORT SCOTT KANSAS TO SALEM MISSOURI. THERE WILL BE A RISK
FOR ISOLATED WIND GUSTS UP TO 60 MPH...ONE INCH HAIL...FREQUENT
LIGHTNING...AND BRIEF DOWNPOURS.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY.

THUNDERSTORMS WILL REMAIN POSSIBLE AT TIMES FROM MONDAY THROUGH
THE MIDDLE OF THE WEEK. THERE IS A MARGINAL SEVERE THUNDERSTORM
RISK MONDAY AND ACROSS SOUTHERN MISSOURI TUESDAY. ISOLATED WIND
GUSTS UP TO 60 MPH WILL BE THE PRIMARY RISK BOTH DAYS.

WITH MULTIPLE ROUNDS OF THUNDERSTORMS POSSIBLE MONDAY NIGHT
THROUGH THE MIDDLE OF THE WEEK...HEAVY RAINFALL AND FLOODING WILL
BE POSSIBLE.

AFTERNOON HEAT INDEX VALUES IN THE 100 TO 105 DEGREE RANGE WILL
AGAIN BE POSSIBLE MONDAY WITH VALUES AGAIN APPROACHING
100 DEGREES
BY THE END OF THIS WEEK.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

  SPOTTER ACTIVATION WILL NOT BE NEEDED THROUGH TONIGHT.

&&

MORE DETAILED INFORMATION CAN BE ACCESSED AT:
HTTP://WWW.WEATHER.GOV/SGF/SITREP(ALL LOWERCASE)

THIS PRODUCT IN GRAPHICAL FORMAT...ALONG WITH OTHER WEATHER...
HYDROLOGICAL AND CLIMATE INFORMATION...AT
HTTP://WWW.WEATHER.GOV/SGF(ALL LOWERCASE)

DSA

SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SPRINGFIELD MO
1211 AM CDT MON JUL 20 2015

KSZ073-200545-
BOURBON KS-
1211 AM CDT MON JUL 20 2015

...SIGNIFICANT WEATHER ADVISORY FOR NORTHERN BOURBON COUNTY UNTIL
1245 AM CDT...

AT 1209 AM CDT...NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DOPPLER RADAR WAS TRACKING
A STRONG THUNDERSTORM NEAR XENIA...OR 15 MILES SOUTHWEST OF MOUND
CITY...MOVING EAST AT 20 MPH. WINDS AROUND 50 MPH WILL BE POSSIBLE
WITH THIS STORM.

LOCATIONS IMPACTED INCLUDE DEVON...FORT SCOTT...FULTON...HAMMOND...
HARDING...MAPLETON AND XENIA.

PEOPLE IN NORTHERN BOURBON COUNTY...INCLUDING FULTON...SHOULD MONITOR
THE WEATHER SITUATION CLOSELY. LISTEN FOR POSSIBLE WARNINGS AND BE
PREPARED TO TAKE APPROPRIATE ACTION SHOULD SEVERE WEATHER THREATEN.

LAT...LON 3803 9461 3783 9461 3786 9507 3803 9507
TIME...MOT...LOC 0511Z 264DEG 18KT 3799 9502

LINDENBERG

SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SPRINGFIELD MO
1257 AM CDT MON JUL 20 2015

MOZ066-200630-
VERNON MO-
1257 AM CDT MON JUL 20 2015

...SIGNIFICANT WEATHER ADVISORY FOR NORTHERN VERNON COUNTY UNTIL 130
AM CDT...

AT 1256 AM CDT...NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DOPPLER RADAR WAS TRACKING
A STRONG THUNDERSTORM NEAR RICHARDS...OR 10 MILES NORTHEAST OF FORT
SCOTT...MOVING EAST AT 25 MPH. WINDS AROUND 50 MPH ARE EXPECTED WITH
THIS STORM.

LOCATIONS IMPACTED INCLUDE HARWOOD...HORTON...METZ...NEVADA...
RICHARDS...SCHELL CITY...STOTESBURY AND WALKER.

PEOPLE IN NORTHERN VERNON COUNTY...SHOULD MONITOR THE WEATHER
SITUATION CLOSELY. LISTEN FOR POSSIBLE WARNINGS AND BE PREPARED TO
TAKE APPROPRIATE ACTION SHOULD SEVERE WEATHER THREATEN.

THIS STORM IS PRODUCING NEARLY CONTINUOUS CLOUD TO GROUND LIGHTNING.
SEEK SHELTER INDOORS IMMEDIATELY AND STAY AWAY FROM WINDOWS.

LAT...LON 3806 9463 3806 9424 3804 9423 3805 9421
      3805 9412 3804 9407 3776 9407 3786 9461
TIME...MOT...LOC 0557Z 266DEG 21KT 3794 9455

LINDENBERG