Red Flag Warning 17, NWS Pueblo, CO

034 
WWUS85 KPUB 101101
RFWPUB

URGENT - FIRE WEATHER MESSAGE
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PUEBLO CO
401 AM MST TUE NOV 10 2015

...A RED FLAG WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT FROM 11 AM TO 5 PM MST
TODAY FOR GUSTY WINDS...LOW RELATIVE HUMIDITY VALUES...AND DRY
FUELS...FOR FIRE ZONES 229...230...233...AND 237...WHICH INCLUDES
HUERFANO...LAS ANIMAS AND BACA COUNTIES...

COZ229-230-233-237-110000-
/O.CON.KPUB.FW.W.0017.151110T1800Z-151111T0000Z/
HUERFANO COUNTY-WESTERN LAS ANIMAS COUNTY-
EASTERN LAS ANIMAS COUNTY-BACA COUNTY-
401 AM MST TUE NOV 10 2015

...RED FLAG WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT FROM 11 AM THIS MORNING TO
5 PM MST THIS AFTERNOON FOR GUSTY WINDS...LOW RELATIVE HUMIDITY
AND DRY FUELS FOR FIRE WEATHER ZONES 229...230...233 AND 237...

* AFFECTED AREA...FIRE WEATHER ZONES 229...230...233 AND 237.

* WINDS...SOUTHWEST 10 TO 20 MPH WITH GUSTS UP TO 30 MPH.

* RELATIVE HUMIDITY...AS LOW AS 11 PERCENT.

* IMPACTS...RAPID RATES OF FIRE SPREAD WILL BE POSSIBLE.  

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

A RED FLAG WARNING MEANS THAT CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER CONDITIONS
ARE EITHER OCCURRING NOW...OR WILL SHORTLY. A COMBINATION OF
STRONG WINDS...LOW RELATIVE HUMIDITY...AND WARM TEMPERATURES CAN
CONTRIBUTE TO EXTREME FIRE BEHAVIOR.

&&

$$

645 
WWUS85 KPUB 102156
RFWPUB

URGENT - FIRE WEATHER MESSAGE
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PUEBLO CO
256 PM MST TUE NOV 10 2015

...A RED FLAG WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 5 PM MST TODAY FOR
GUSTY WINDS...LOW RELATIVE HUMIDITY VALUES...AND DRY FUELS...FOR
FIRE ZONES 229...230...233...AND 237...WHICH INCLUDES HUERFANO...LAS
ANIMAS AND BACA COUNTIES...

COZ229-230-233-237-110000-
/O.CON.KPUB.FW.W.0017.000000T0000Z-151111T0000Z/
HUERFANO COUNTY-WESTERN LAS ANIMAS COUNTY-
EASTERN LAS ANIMAS COUNTY-BACA COUNTY-
256 PM MST TUE NOV 10 2015

...RED FLAG WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 5 PM MST THIS
AFTERNOON FOR GUSTY WINDS...LOW RELATIVE HUMIDITY AND DRY FUELS
FOR FIRE WEATHER ZONES 229...230...233 AND 237...

* AFFECTED AREA...FIRE WEATHER ZONES 229...230...233 AND 237.

* WINDS...SOUTHWEST 10 TO 15 MPH WITH GUSTS UP TO 30 MPH.

* RELATIVE HUMIDITY...5 TO 10 PERCENT.

* IMPACTS...RAPID RATES OF FIRE SPREAD WILL BE POSSIBLE.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

A RED FLAG WARNING MEANS THAT CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER CONDITIONS
ARE EITHER OCCURRING NOW...OR WILL SHORTLY. A COMBINATION OF
STRONG WINDS...LOW RELATIVE HUMIDITY...AND WARM TEMPERATURES CAN
CONTRIBUTE TO EXTREME FIRE BEHAVIOR.

&&

$$

261 
WWUS85 KPUB 102358
RFWPUB

URGENT - FIRE WEATHER MESSAGE
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PUEBLO CO
458 PM MST TUE NOV 10 2015

...THE RED FLAG WARNING FOR GUSTY WINDS...LOW HUMIDITIES...AND
DRY FUELS...FOR FIRE ZONES 229...230...233...AND 237...INCLUDING
HUERFANO...LAS ANIMAS AND BACA COUNTIES...WILL BE ALLOWED TO
EXPIRE AT 5 PM MST...

COZ229-230-233-237-110100-
/O.EXP.KPUB.FW.W.0017.000000T0000Z-151111T0000Z/
HUERFANO COUNTY-WESTERN LAS ANIMAS COUNTY-
EASTERN LAS ANIMAS COUNTY-BACA COUNTY-
458 PM MST TUE NOV 10 2015

...RED FLAG WARNING FOR GUSTY WINDS...LOW HUMIDITIES...AND
DRY FUELS FOR FIRE ZONES 229...230...233 AND 237...WILL EXPIRE AT
5 PM MST...

RED FLAG CONDITIONS ARE SUBSIDING WITH THE ONSET OF EVENING.
CONSEQUENTLY...THE RED FLAG WARNING THAT WAS IN EFFECT UNTIL 5 PM
MST WILL BE ALLOWED TO EXPIRE.

$$

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PUEBLO CO
1007 AM MST MON NOV 9 2015

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 459 AM MST MON NOV 9 2015

ANOTHER MILD DAY EXPECTED WITH TEMPERATURES WARMING A FEW DEGREES
OVER YESTERDAY...PARTICULARLY ACROSS THE PLAINS AND I-25 CORRIDOR.
WEST COAST UPPER TROF WILL MOVE TOWARD THE GREAT BASIN TONIGHT INTO
TUESDAY.  THIS WILL RESULT IN INCREASING SOUTHWEST FLOW ACROSS THE
HIGHER AREAS TODAY INTO TONIGHT.  WITH UPPER TROF STILL WELL OFF TO
THE WEST TODAY...WINDS DO NOT LOOK STRONG ENOUGH TO RESULT IN FIRE
WEATHER CONCERNS JUST YET.  IN FACT...LOWERING PRESSURES ALONG THE I-
25 CORRIDOR WILL PULL SFC WINDS SOUTHEASTERLY ACROSS THE MAJORITY OF
THE SOUTHEAST PLAINS.  THIS MAY KEEP US FROM REALIZING FULL
POTENTIAL OF THE WARMING ALOFT...AND HAVE KEPT TEMPERATURES TODAY IN
THE MID 60S ACROSS THE PLAINS.

TONIGHT...LEE TROF WILL KEEP WESTERLY DRAINAGE WINDS CONTINUING
THROUGH THE NIGHT...AND MT PEAK WINDS WILL BE ON THE INCREASE AHEAD
OF THE APPROACHING SYSTEM.  THIS WILL KEEP MIN TEMPS ON THE MILD
SIDE...WITH SOME AREAS STAYING IN THE LOWER 40S ALONG THE LOWER
EASTERN SLOPES TO THE WEST OF I-25.  STILL LOOKS LIKE PRECIPITATION
WILL HOLD OFF UNTIL THE TUESDAY TIME FRAME...BUT CLOUDS WILL BE ON
THE INCREASE OUT WEST. -KT

.LONG TERM...(TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY)
ISSUED AT 459 AM MST MON NOV 9 2015

MAIN ISSUES DURING THE LONGER TERM CONTINUE TO INCLUDE SNOW
AMOUNTS...POPS...TEMPERATURES AND GUSTY WINDS AS WELL AS
LOCALIZED ELEVATED FIRE WEATHER THREATS AT TIMES.

METEOROLOGICAL FOCUS CONTINUES TO REMAIN ON THE AMOUNT OF IMPACT
THAT PROJECTED DEVELOPING STORM SYSTEM WILL HAVE ON THE FORECAST
DISTRICT...ESPECIALLY FROM LATER TUESDAY INTO WEDNESDAY.

TUESDAY SHOULD BEGIN DRY ACROSS THE FORECAST DISTRICT IN
COMBINATION WITH ABOVE SEASONAL EARLY TO MID NOVEMBER TEMPERATURES
AND LOCALIZED GUSTY WINDS. THEN A RELATIVELY VIGOROUS AND QUICK
MOVING CLOSED UPPER LOW LOCATED OVER SOUTHERN UTAH AT 00Z
WEDNESDAY IS PROJECTED TO MOVE ACROSS THE CWFA TUESDAY NIGHT AND
THEN INTO NORTH-CENTRAL KANSAS BY 18Z WEDNESDAY BEFORE SHIFTING INTO
WISCONSIN BY 06Z THURSDAY.

PER LATEST COMPUTER SIMULATIONS...PV ANALYSIS AND FORECAST MODEL
SOUNDINGS...IT APPEARS THAT THE HIGHEST POTENTIAL FOR UNSETTLED
METEOROLOGICAL CONDITIONS(INCLUDING AREAS OF SNOW/BLOWING
SNOW...WINDY CONDITIONS AND COLDER TEMPERATURES)...SHOULD BE
NOTED FROM LATE TUESDAY AFTERNOON INTO WEDNESDAY MORNING.

HAVE ISSUED A WINTER STORM WATCH FOR THE WESTERN MOSQUITO RANGE
AND EASTERN LAKE COUNTY ABOVE 11000 FEET...THE EASTERN SAWATCH
MOUNTAINS ABOVE 11000 FEET...WESTERN CHAFFEE COUNTY BETWEEN 9000
AND 11000 FEET...THE LA GARITA MOUNTAINS ABOVE 10000 FEET...THE
EASTERN SAN JUAN MOUNTAINS ABOVE 10000 FEET AND PIKES PEAK ABOVE
11000 FEET DURING THIS TIME-FRAME DUE TO A COMBINATION OF SNOW
AND GUSTY WINDS...ALTHOUGH SOME LOCATIONS IN THE WINTER STORM
WATCH MAY HAVE ISSUES IN REALIZING SNOW CRITERIA.

IN ADDITION...LOCATIONS NEAR THE WATCH LOCATIONS...SUCH AS EL
PASO COUNTY(ESPECIALLY NORTHERN AND EASTERN SECTIONS)...LOWER
ELEVATIONS OF TELLER COUNTY AND POSSIBLY EVEN INTO PORTIONS OF
NORTHEASTERN PUEBLO...CROWLEY AND KIOWA COUNTIES HAVE THE
POTENTIAL OF EXPERIENCING SOME SNOW AND BLOWING SNOW CONDITIONS
...PRIMARILY FROM APPROXIMATELY 09Z TO 18Z WEDNESDAY. AS
ALWAYS...WFO PUEBLO WILL MONITOR CLOSELY AND REFINE WINTER WEATHER
HIGHLIGHTS AS NEEDED.

ALSO...LOCALIZED AREAS OF NEAR CRITICAL TO CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER
CONDITIONS ARE STILL ANTICIPATED AT TIMES TUESDAY AFTERNOON...PRIMARILY
OVER PORTIONS OF HUERFANO...LAS ANIMAS AND BACA COUNTIES. WFO
PUEBLO CONTEMPLATED ISSUING A FIRE WEATHER HIGHLIGHT...HOWEVER
AFTER COORDINATION WITH SURROUNDING OFFICES...WILL HOLD OFF FOR
NOW AND CONTINUE TO MONITOR LATEST TRENDS.

IT STILL APPEARS THAT A RETURN TO DRIER CONDITIONS SHOULD BE
NOTED FROM THURSDAY INTO THE WEEKEND AS A BASICALLY DRY PATTERN
DEVELOPS OVER SOUTHERN COLORADO.

FINALLY...COOLEST CONDITIONS DURING THE LONGER TERM ARE EXPECTED
FROM WEDNESDAY INTO FRIDAY...WITH WARMEST CONDITIONS PREVAILING
TUESDAY AND THEN AGAIN DURING THE WEEKEND.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z TUESDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 1006 AM MST MON NOV 9 2015

VFR CONDITIONS AT ALL THREE TERMINALS THROUGH THE NEXT 24 HOURS
WITH DIURNALLY DRIVEN WINDS. GUSTY WINDS ARE EXPECTED TO DEVELOP
TUESDAY AFTERNOON ACROSS THE REGION AS AN UPPER LEVEL STORM
APPROACHES THE AREA.  MOZLEY

&&

.PUB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WINTER STORM WATCH FROM TUESDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH WEDNESDAY
MORNING FOR COZ058-060-061-066-068-082.

&&

AVIATION...MOZLEY

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PUEBLO CO
619 AM MST MON NOV 9 2015

COZ058>089-093>099-101330-
WESTERN MOSQUITO RANGE/EAST LAKE COUNTY ABOVE 11000 FT-
LEADVILLE VICINITY/LAKE COUNTY BELOW 11000 FT-
EASTERN SAWATCH MOUNTAINS ABOVE 11000 FT-
WESTERN CHAFFEE COUNTY BETWEEN 9000 AND 11000 FT-
CENTRAL CHAFFEE COUNTY BELOW 9000 FT-
WESTERN MOSQUITO RANGE/EAST CHAFFEE COUNTY ABOVE 9000 FT-
SAGUACHE COUNTY WEST OF CONTINENTAL DIVIDE BELOW 10000 FT-
SAGUACHE COUNTY EAST OF CONTINENTAL DIVIDE BELOW 10000 FT-
LA GARITA MOUNTAINS ABOVE 10000 FT-
UPPER RIO GRANDE VALLEY/EASTERN SAN JUAN MOUNTAINS BELOW 10000 FT-
EASTERN SAN JUAN MOUNTAINS ABOVE 10000 FT-
DEL NORTE VICINITY/NORTHERN SAN LUIS VALLEY BELOW 8500 FT-
ALAMOSA VICINITY/CENTRAL SAN LUIS VALLEY BELOW 8500 FT-
SOUTHERN SAN LUIS VALLEY-
NORTHERN SANGRE DE CRISTO MOUNTAINS BETWEEN 8500 AND 11000 FT-
NORTHERN SANGRE DE CRISTO MOUNTAINS ABOVE 11000 FEET-
SOUTHERN SANGRE DE CRISTO MOUNTAINS BETWEEN 7500 AND 11000 FT-
SOUTHERN SANGRE DE CRISTO MOUNTAINS ABOVE 11000 FT-
NORTHWESTERN FREMONT COUNTY ABOVE 8500 FT-
WESTERN/CENTRAL FREMONT COUNTY BELOW 8500 FT-
WET MOUNTAIN VALLEY BELOW 8500 FEET-
WET MOUNTAINS BETWEEN 6300 AND 10000 FT-
WET MOUNTAINS ABOVE 10000 FT-
TELLER COUNTY/RAMPART RANGE ABOVE 7500 FT/PIKES PEAK BETWEEN
7500 AND 11000 FT-PIKES PEAK ABOVE 11000 FT-
CANON CITY VICINITY/EASTERN FREMONT COUNTY-
NORTHERN EL PASO COUNTY/MONUMENT RIDGE/RAMPART RANGE BELOW
7500 FT-
COLORADO SPRINGS VICINITY/SOUTHERN EL PASO COUNTY/RAMPART RANGE
BELOW 7400 FT-PUEBLO AND VICINITY/PUEBLO COUNTY BELOW 6300 FT-
WALSENBURG VICINITY/UPPER HUERFANO RIVER BASIN BELOW 7500 FT-
TRINIDAD VICINITY/WESTERN LAS ANIMAS COUNTY BELOW 7500 FT-
CROWLEY COUNTY-LA JUNTA VICINITY/OTERO COUNTY-
EASTERN LAS ANIMAS COUNTY-WESTERN KIOWA COUNTY-
EASTERN KIOWA COUNTY-LAS ANIMAS VICINITY/BENT COUNTY-
LAMAR VICINITY/PROWERS COUNTY-SPRINGFIELD VICINITY/BACA COUNTY-
619 AM MST MON NOV 9 2015

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR PORTIONS OF CENTRAL...EAST
CENTRAL...SOUTH CENTRAL AND SOUTHEAST COLORADO.

.DAY ONE...TODAY AND TONIGHT

NO HAZARDOUS WEATHER IS EXPECTED AT THIS TIME.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY

A RELATIVELY VIGOROUS AND QUICK MOVING STORM SYSTEM IS EXPECTED
TO IMPACT THE REGION FROM LATER TUESDAY AFTERNOON INTO
WEDNESDAY. MOUNTAIN SNOWS ARE PROJECTED TO DEVELOP BY LATER
TUESDAY AFTERNOON AND THEN SPREAD EAST FROM TUESDAY NIGHT INTO
WEDNESDAY.

A WINTER STORM WATCH HAS BEEN ISSUED FROM LATE TUESDAY AFTERNOON
THROUGH WEDNESDAY MORNING FOR THE WESTERN MOSQUITO RANGE AND
EASTERN LAKE COUNTY ABOVE 11000 FEET...THE EASTERN SAWATCH
MOUNTAINS ABOVE 11000 FEET...WESTERN CHAFFEE COUNTY BETWEEN 9000
AND 11000 FEET...THE LA GARITA MOUNTAINS ABOVE 10000 FEET...THE
EASTERN SAN JUAN MOUNTAINS ABOVE 10000 FEET AND PIKES PEAK ABOVE
11000 FEET. TOTAL SNOW ACCUMULATIONS IN EXCESS OF 8 INCHES WILL
BE POSSIBLE OVER THESE LOCATIONS DURING THIS EVENT.

IN ADDITION...STRONG WINDS...CAPABLE OF PRODUCING BLOWING SNOW
AT TIMES WILL BE POSSIBLE FROM TUESDAY NIGHT INTO WEDNESDAY
MORNING...PRIMARILY NORTH OF HIGHWAY 50.

ALSO...LOCALIZED AREAS OF NEAR CRITICAL TO CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER
CONDITIONS IS EXPECTED AT TIMES TUESDAY AFTERNOON...PRIMARILY OVER
PORTIONS OF HUERFANO...LAS ANIMAS AND BACA COUNTIES.

PLEASE CONTINUE TO MONITOR THE LATEST FORECASTS CONCERNING THIS
POTENTIAL DEVELOPING MID-WEEK STORM SYSTEM...ESPECIALLY IF YOU
HAVE TRAVEL OR OUTDOOR ACTIVITIES PLANNED DURING THE TUESDAY
AFTERNOON INTO WEDNESDAY TIME-FRAME.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

WEATHER SPOTTERS WILL NOT BE NEEDED TODAY OR TONIGHT.