High Wind Warning 2, NWS Philadelphia/Mount Holly

744 
WWUS71 KPHI 021925
NPWPHI

URGENT - WEATHER MESSAGE
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MOUNT HOLLY NJ
325 PM EDT FRI OCT 2 2015


DEZ003-NJZ022-023-030500-
/O.CAN.KPHI.HW.W.0002.000000T0000Z-151003T0500Z/
/O.EXA.KPHI.WI.Y.0006.000000T0000Z-151003T2200Z/
INLAND SUSSEX-ATLANTIC-CAPE MAY-
INCLUDING THE CITIES OF...GEORGETOWN...HAMMONTON...
CAPE MAY COURT HOUSE
325 PM EDT FRI OCT 2 2015

...WIND ADVISORY IN EFFECT UNTIL 6 PM EDT SATURDAY...
...HIGH WIND WARNING IS CANCELLED...

THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN MOUNT HOLLY HAS ISSUED A WIND
ADVISORY...WHICH IS IN EFFECT UNTIL 6 PM EDT SATURDAY. THE HIGH
WIND WARNING HAS BEEN CANCELLED.

* LOCATIONS...INTERIOR PORTIONS OF ATLANTIC AND CAPE MAY COUNTIES
  IN NEW JERSEY AND INTERIOR SUSSEX COUNTY IN DELAWARE.

* WINDS...NORTHEAST 20 TO 30 MPH WITH GUSTS UP TO 55 MPH.

* TIMING...WINDY CONDITIONS WILL REMAIN OVERNIGHT THROUGH
  TOMORROW.

* IMPACTS...CAUTION IS URGED FOR HIGH PROFILE VEHICLES TRAVELING 
  ON BRIDGES AND OVERPASSES. LIMBS WILL BE KNOCKED DOWN AND 
  CAUSE ISOLATED POWER OUTAGES. BLOWING SAND MAY COVER SOME 
  COASTAL ROADS.

* OUTLOOK...ADVISORY LEVEL WIND GUSTS MAY PERSIST INTO SUNDAY.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

A WIND ADVISORY MEANS THAT VERY WINDY CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED.
WINDS THIS STRONG CAN MAKE DRIVING DIFFICULT...ESPECIALLY FOR HIGH
PROFILE VEHICLES. USE EXTRA CAUTION. LIGHT-WEIGHT OUTDOOR OBJECTS
SUCH AS PATIO FURNITURE AND GARBAGE CANS SHOULD BE SECURED.

&&

$$

DEZ004-NJZ024-025-030500-
/O.CON.KPHI.HW.W.0002.000000T0000Z-151003T0500Z/
DELAWARE BEACHES-ATLANTIC COASTAL CAPE MAY-COASTAL ATLANTIC-
INCLUDING THE CITIES OF...REHOBOTH BEACH...OCEAN CITY...
ATLANTIC CITY
325 PM EDT FRI OCT 2 2015

...HIGH WIND WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 1 AM EDT SATURDAY...

* LOCATIONS...COASTAL SECTIONS OF ATLANTIC... CAPE MAY AND 
  SUSSEX COUNTIES.

* WINDS...NORTHEAST 30 TO 35 MPH WITH GUSTS UP TO 60 MPH.

* TIMING...VERY WINDY CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE THROUGH THIS
  EVENING. THOUGH WINDS MAY SUBSIDE A BIT AFTER MIDNIGHT...WIND
  ADVISORY CONDITIONS...WITH GUSTS OF 40 TO 50 MPH ARE LIKELY TO
  CONTINUE THROUGH SATURDAY.

* IMPACTS...CAUTION IS URGED FOR HIGH PROFILE VEHICLES TRAVELING 
  ON BRIDGES AND OVERPASSES. TREES AND TREE LIMBS WILL GET 
  KNOCKED DOWN AND CAUSE POWER OUTAGES. BLOWING SAND MAY COVER 
  SOME COASTAL ROADS.

* OUTLOOK...ADVISORY LEVEL WIND GUSTS COULD PERSIST THROUGH SUNDAY.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

A HIGH WIND WARNING MEANS A HAZARDOUS HIGH WIND EVENT IS EXPECTED
OR OCCURRING. SUSTAINED WIND SPEEDS OF AT LEAST 40 MPH OR GUSTS
OF 58 MPH OR MORE CAN LEAD TO PROPERTY DAMAGE.

&&

$$

NJZ013-014-020-026-027-030500-
/O.CON.KPHI.WI.Y.0006.000000T0000Z-151003T2200Z/
WESTERN MONMOUTH-EASTERN MONMOUTH-OCEAN-COASTAL OCEAN-
SOUTHEASTERN BURLINGTON-
INCLUDING THE CITIES OF...FREEHOLD...SANDY HOOK...JACKSON...
LONG BEACH ISLAND...WHARTON STATE FOREST
325 PM EDT FRI OCT 2 2015

...WIND ADVISORY REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 6 PM EDT SATURDAY...

* LOCATIONS...COASTAL MONMOUTH AND OCEAN COUNTIES.

* WINDS...NORTHEAST 20 TO 30 MPH WITH GUSTS UP TO 50 MPH.

* TIMING...WINDY CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE THROUGH THE DAY
  SATURDAY.

* IMPACTS...CAUTION IS URGED FOR HIGH PROFILE VEHICLES TRAVELING 
  ON BRIDGES AND OVERPASSES. LIMBS WILL BE KNOCKED DOWN AND 
  CAUSE ISOLATED POWER OUTAGES. BLOWING SAND MAY COVER SOME 
  COASTAL ROADS. 

* OUTLOOK...ADVISORY TYPE WIND GUSTS MIGHT PERSIST INTO SUNDAY.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

A WIND ADVISORY MEANS THAT VERY WINDY CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED
FRIDAY. WINDS THIS STRONG CAN MAKE DRIVING DIFFICULT...ESPECIALLY
FOR HIGH PROFILE VEHICLES. USE EXTRA CAUTION. LIGHT-WEIGHT
OUTDOOR OBJECTS SUCH AS PATIO FURNITURE AND GARBAGE CANS SHOULD
BE SECURED.

&&

$$

581 
WWUS71 KPHI 022243
NPWPHI

URGENT - WEATHER MESSAGE
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MOUNT HOLLY NJ
643 PM EDT FRI OCT 2 2015

DEZ004-NJZ024-025-030645-
/O.CAN.KPHI.HW.W.0002.000000T0000Z-151003T0500Z/
/O.EXA.KPHI.WI.Y.0006.000000T0000Z-151003T2200Z/
DELAWARE BEACHES-ATLANTIC COASTAL CAPE MAY-COASTAL ATLANTIC-
INCLUDING THE CITIES OF...REHOBOTH BEACH...OCEAN CITY...
ATLANTIC CITY
643 PM EDT FRI OCT 2 2015

...WIND ADVISORY IN EFFECT UNTIL 6 PM EDT SATURDAY...
...HIGH WIND WARNING IS CANCELLED...

THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN MOUNT HOLLY HAS ISSUED A WIND
ADVISORY...WHICH IS IN EFFECT UNTIL 6 PM EDT SATURDAY. THE HIGH
WIND WARNING HAS BEEN CANCELLED.

* LOCATIONS...COASTAL AREAS OF SOUTHERN NEW JERSEY AND DELAWARE.

* WINDS...NORTHEAST 25 TO 35 MPH WITH GUSTS AROUND 50 MPH.

* TIMING...WINDY CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE TONIGHT AND SATURDAY.

* IMPACTS...CAUTION IS URGED FOR HIGH PROFILE VEHICLES TRAVELING 
  ON BRIDGES AND OVERPASSES. LIMBS WILL BE KNOCKED DOWN AND 
  CAUSE ISOLATED POWER OUTAGES. BLOWING SAND MAY COVER SOME 
  COASTAL ROADS.

* OUTLOOK...ADVISORY TYPE WIND GUSTS MIGHT PERSIST INTO SUNDAY.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

A WIND ADVISORY MEANS THAT VERY WINDY CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED.
WINDS THIS STRONG CAN MAKE DRIVING DIFFICULT...ESPECIALLY FOR
HIGH PROFILE VEHICLES. USE EXTRA CAUTION. LIGHT-WEIGHT OUTDOOR
OBJECTS SUCH AS PATIO FURNITURE AND GARBAGE CANS SHOULD BE
SECURED.

&&

$$

DEZ003-NJZ013-014-020-022-023-026-027-030645-
/O.CON.KPHI.WI.Y.0006.000000T0000Z-151003T2200Z/
INLAND SUSSEX-WESTERN MONMOUTH-EASTERN MONMOUTH-OCEAN-ATLANTIC-
CAPE MAY-COASTAL OCEAN-SOUTHEASTERN BURLINGTON-
INCLUDING THE CITIES OF...GEORGETOWN...FREEHOLD...SANDY HOOK...
JACKSON...HAMMONTON...CAPE MAY COURT HOUSE...LONG BEACH ISLAND...
WHARTON STATE FOREST
643 PM EDT FRI OCT 2 2015

...WIND ADVISORY REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 6 PM EDT SATURDAY...

* LOCATIONS...MONMOUTH AND OCEAN COUNTIES IN NEW JERSEY, INTERIOR
  PORTIONS OF ATLANTIC AND CAPE MAY COUNTIES IN NEW JERSEY,
  INTERIOR SUSSEX COUNTY IN DELAWARE.

* WINDS...NORTHEAST 20 TO 30 MPH WITH OCCASIONAL GUSTS UP TO 50 MPH.

* TIMING...WINDY CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE THROUGH THE DAY SATURDAY.

* IMPACTS...CAUTION IS URGED FOR HIGH PROFILE VEHICLES TRAVELING 
  ON BRIDGES AND OVERPASSES. LIMBS WILL BE KNOCKED DOWN AND 
  CAUSE ISOLATED POWER OUTAGES. BLOWING SAND MAY COVER SOME 
  COASTAL ROADS.

* OUTLOOK...ADVISORY TYPE WIND GUSTS MIGHT PERSIST INTO SUNDAY.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

A WIND ADVISORY MEANS THAT VERY WINDY CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED
FRIDAY. WINDS THIS STRONG CAN MAKE DRIVING DIFFICULT...ESPECIALLY
FOR HIGH PROFILE VEHICLES. USE EXTRA CAUTION. LIGHT-WEIGHT
OUTDOOR OBJECTS SUCH AS PATIO FURNITURE AND GARBAGE CANS SHOULD
BE SECURED.

&&

$$
JRK

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MOUNT HOLLY NJ
410 AM EDT FRI OCT 2 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
A STALLED FRONT WILL REMAIN OFF THE MID ATLANTIC COAST INTO THIS
WEEKEND WHILE LARGE AND STRENGTHENING HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS ACROSS
SOUTHEAST CANADA. MEANWHILE, THE FORECAST TRACK OF HURRICANE JOAQUIN
WAS TRENDING EASTWARD AWAY FROM OUR AREA BUT IT STILL NEEDS TO BE
MONITORED FOR POTENTIAL IMPACT HERE EARLY NEXT WEEK. ONCE JOAQUIN
PASSES BY, A PAIR OF HIGH PRESSURE SYSTEMS WILL FOLLOW INTO OUR
REGION FOR THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
PLENTY TO WATCH TODAY AS THE FRONT ACROSS THE WATERS LIFTS NORTHWARD
WHILE ABUNDANT MOISTURE MOVES ALONG IT. THE RAIN IS ALREADY OCCRG
OVER MOST OF THE REGION...EXCEPT THE FAR N/W AREAS. THE RAINS WILL
ARRIVE ACROSS THOSE AREAS LATER THIS AFTERNOON. POPS ARE
LIKELY/CATEGORICAL ACROSS THE AREA WITH STEADY RAINS...HEAVY AT
TIMES TODAY. TEMPERATURES WILL NOT CHANGE MUCH TODAY...REMAINING
MOSTLY IN THE 50S. WINDS WILL BE STRONG...ESPECIALLY NEAR THE COAST.
A HIGH WIND WARNING HAS BEEN ISSUED FOR ERN DELAWARE AND SE NJ
COUNTIES...WITH A WIND ADVISORY FARTHER UP ALONG THE NRN NJ COAST.
GUSTS IN THE WARNING AREAS WILL BE 58 MPH OR GREATER...WHILE GUSTS
IN THE ADVISORY AREAS WILL BE GREATER THE 46 MPH. RAINFALL WILL
RANGE FROM 1/4 TO 1/2 INCH NORTH TO 1.5 TO 2.0 INCHES SOUTH.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH 6 AM SATURDAY/...
NOT MUCH CHANGE FOR TONIGHT. THE HIGH WILL REMAIN NORTH OF THE AREA
WHILE A STRONG ONSHORE FLOW CONTINUES. THE SFC FRONT/TROUGH WILL
PUSH ACROSS THE REGION AND BE WEST OF THE AREA BY SAT MORNING. THE
HIGH WIND WARNINGS WILL END AT 100 AM SAT. THE TIMING OF THIS IS
SOMEWHAT UNCERTAIN AND COULD BE EXTENDED. CATEGORICAL POPS WITH RAIN
HEAVY AT TIMES. RAINFALL TOTALS OF 1/2 TO 3/4 INCHES (MORE)
EXPECTED. LOW TEMPERATURES IN THE 40S NORTH AND LOW OR MID 50S
ELSEWHERE.

&&

.LONG TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
AS THE LONG TERM PERIOD BEGINS, THE HEAVY RAIN THREAT IS EXPECTED
TO DIMINISH, THE PROSPECT FOR STRONG TO MAYBE HIGH WINDS AS WELL
AS MAJOR COASTAL FLOODING REMAINS. THE LAST COUPLE OF SOUNDING
RUNS FROM THE UKMET AND GFS HAVE HAD IT JOINING THE ECMWF IN
PASSING JOAQUIN WELL EAST OF OUR AREA. WE NEVER FEEL COMPLETE
RELIEF UNTIL THE CENTER PASSES NORTH OF OUR LATITUDE. PLEASE REFER
TO ADVISORIES ABOUT JOAQUIN FROM THE NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER.

SYNOPTICALLY SPEAKING, THE GFS AND ECMWF 500MB INITIALIZATION OVER
THE SERN CONUS LOOKED BETTER THAN THE NAM. THE TROF ITSELF WHERE
THERE WERE ERRORS WAS SLIGHTLY BROADER AND SLOWER. THE GFS WAS SUPERIOR
TO THE NAM WITH THE WESTERN RIDGE. THE DP/DT FROM LAST NIGHT WITH
THE GFS SHOWED A SLOWING OF THE TROF AND MORE WESTERN RIDGING. WHILE
THIS RUN OF THE GFS WAS FARTHER WEST WITH JOAQUIN, IT WAS STILL
EAST OF LAST NIGHT'S 00Z RUN. ALSO ONE CAN SEE THE SAME PATTERN AS
THE MODELS THAT LIFT JOAQUIN FASTER ARE THE ONES THAT STILL HAVE A
CAROLINA LANDFALL. THE ECMWF REMAINS ONE OF THE SLOWEST. THRU 06Z
THE CANADIAN GGEM WHICH IS (TOO) FARTHER NORTH THAN THE GFS, HWRF OR
GFDL (ACTUALLY TOO FAR SOUTH!) IS THE ONE MODEL THAT HAS A CONUS
LANDFALL. GIVEN THE LATEST HPC'S FORECAST TRACK, THE NAM CAN NOT BE
USED FOR THE LONG TERM. WE ARE CLOSEST TO A GFS/ECMWF COMPROMISE.

BIGGEST IMPACTS FOR SATURDAY REMAIN THE WIND AND COASTAL FLOODING,
ESPECIALLY NEAR COASTAL AREAS. WE HAVE EXTENDED THE WIND ADVISORY
THROUGH SATURDAY DAY. LOCATIONS THAT CURRENTLY HAVE THE HIGH WIND
WARNING IN EFFECT WILL MOST LIKELY BE CONVERTED OVER TO WIND
ADVISORIES. WHILE JOAQUIN REMAINS WELL TO THE SOUTH, A SQUEEZE
PLAY CONTINUES WITH THE OFFSHORE FRONTAL BOUNDARY AND STRONG HIGH
PRESSURE TO THE NORTH IN CANADA. BY SATURDAY, THE JOAQUIN
CONNECTED PLUME IS PREDICTED TO BE WEST OF OUR CWA. WE LOSE THE
FGEN FORCING AND MID LEVEL QVEC CONVERGENCE WE WILL HAVE TODAY AND
FORCING IS MORE RELATED TO EITHER FRICTIONAL CONVERGENCE OR WEAK
PVA ALOFT TRYING TO COME AROUND THE RIDGE.

ON SATURDAY NIGHT AND SUNDAY, NO BIG CHANGES TO ABOVE. THE SURFACE
HIGH IS MOVING CLOSER TO OUR AREA, SO DRIER AIR SHOULD START TO
FILTER INTO OUR REGION. POPS WERE SLOWLY LOWERED TO REFLECT THIS,
ESPECIALLY NORTH. BY SUNDAY, THE GRADIENT DOES NOT APPEAR AS TIGHT,
BUT DEEPER MIXING IS GENERATING SIMILAR GUSTS TO TODAY. THE ECMWF
IS NOT AS BULLISH AND GIVEN THIS IS A COUPLE OF DAYS AWAY, WE WILL
HOLD OFF ON EXTENDING ANY WIND RELATED HEADLINES. THROUGH SUNDAY
FOR CONSISTENCY SAKE WE ARE MUCH CLOSER TO GFS MOS THAN NAM MOS
ON TEMPERATURES.

THE LESSENING PRECIPITATION TREND SEEN ON THE WEEKEND CONTINUES INTO
MONDAY. WITH JOAQUIN PREDICTED TO PASS EAST OF THE AREA, THE OVERALL
GRADIENT SUNDAY NIGHT AND MONDAY ALSO STARTS TO LOOSEN AND WINDS
SHOULD FINALLY START TO SLOWLY DIMINISH.

THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK CONTINUES TO SHOW A RETURN TO A MORE
TRANQUIL WEATHER PATTERN. THE KICKER SOUTHEASTERN CONUS CLOSED LOW
IS EXPECTED TO PASS TOO FAR SOUTHEAST OF OUR AREA FOR ITS FINAL
EXTRATROPICAL LOW TO AFFECT US. A DRY DISSIPATING CFP WEDNESDAY
SHOULD BE FOLLOWED BY ANOTHER HIGH PRESSURE SYSTEM FOR THURSDAY.

&&

.AVIATION /08Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
THE FOLLOWING DISCUSSION IS FOR KPHL, KPNE, KTTN, KABE, KRDG, KILG,
KMIV, KACY, AND SURROUNDING AREAS.

THE TAFS WILL CONTAIN A FAIRLY STEADY PERIOD OF MVFR AND UPPER END
IFR CONDITIONS ACROSS THE AREA TODAY AND TONIGHT. IT WILL BE
DIFFICULT TO TIME THE EXACT ARRIVAL OF HEAVIER RAINS AND LOWER
VSBYS/CIGS...SO TRIED TO JUST GIVE A GOOD OVERALL DESCRIPTION. NE
WINDS 15 TO 20 KNOTS (SUSTAINED) WITH GUSTS AROUND 30 KTS ACROSS THE
REGION TODAY AND TONIGHT.  WINDS WILL BE HIGHER AT KACY/KMIV.

OUTLOOK...
SATURDAY THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT...MVFR TO IFR CONDITIONS ARE PROBABLE
DURING THIS PERIOD WITH A CONTINUED NORTHEAST FLOW. SPOTTIER RAIN OR
DRIZZLE WILL CONTINUE. NORTHEAST WINDS WILL BECOME GUSTY AS WELL
DURING THIS TIMEFRAME, REACHING AT LEAST 25-35 KNOTS AT TIMES.

MONDAY THROUGH TUESDAY...OVERALL, IMPROVEMENT BACK TO VFR CONDITIONS
IS ANTICIPATED, WITH GENERALLY LIGHTER WINDS UNDER 20 KNOTS BY
TUESDAY.

PLEASE REFER TO THE LATEST STATEMENTS FROM THE NATIONAL HURRICANE
CENTER FOR UPDATES ON HURRICANE JOAQUIN.

&&

.MARINE...
STEADY NE WINDS CONTINUE TO INCREASE OVER THE WATERS EARLY THIS
MORNING AND THESE WINDS SHOULD BE THE RULE FOR THE NEXT FEW DAYS.
WE HAVE DECIDED TO UPGRADE THE GALE WARNING OVER THE SOUTHERN
COASTAL WATERS TO A STORM WARNING FOR GUSTS NEAR 50 KTS. THIS STORM
WARNING WILL BE FOR TODAY AND MUCH OF TONIGHT. THE DEL BAY AND
NORTHERN COASTAL WATERS WILL KEEP THE ONGOING GALE THRU SUNDAY.
EXTREMELY ROUGH SURF AND WAVES 10 TO 15 FT ON THE OCEAN WILL
CONTINUE. RAIN TODAY AND TONIGHT.

OUTLOOK...
SATURDAY THROUGH SUNDAY...BORDERLINE GALES TO STORM CONDITIONS
ARE EXPECTED TO PREVAIL. WE EXTENDED THE GALE WARNING THROUGH
SUNDAY AS ITS THE MOST LIKELY OUTCOME. DOUBLE DIGIT SEAS WILL
CONTINUE ON THE OCEAN.

SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY...MARINE HEADLINES AND CONDITIONS
DURING THIS PERIOD WILL STILL BE DEPENDENT ON THE TRACK OF
HURRICANE JOAQUIN. AT A MINIMUM, IT APPEARS THAT THERE WILL BE A
PERIOD OF GALE CONDITIONS FOR OUR WATERS, WITH SEAS ALSO REMAINING
ELEVATED.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
DURING THE PAST 24 HOURS, UP TO AROUND AN INCH OF RAIN HAS FALLEN
IN PARTS OF DELMARVA. THIS TAPERS OFF QUICKLY TO NEXT TO NOTHING
IN OUR FAR NWRN CWA. TODAY AND TONIGHT, THE HEAVIEST RAIN THAT
IS EXPECTED TO FALL (AN ADDITIONAL INCH TO TWO) IS IN THE FAR
SOUTHWESTERN PART OF OUR CWA AND MAINLY ON THE COASTAL PLAIN.
LESS RAIN IS THEN EXPECTED DURING THE WEEKEND. JOAQUIN'S FINAL
PASS IS SUFFICIENTLY EAST OF US FOR ITS PRECIPITATION TO NOT
REACH US IF THE CURRENT TRACK REMAINS REASONABLY ACCURATE. ALSO
BY PASSING EAST AND NOT WEST OF US, WE WILL NOT GET A TROPICALLY
CONNECTED PLUME INTO OUR AREA. THE LATEST GEFS AND SREF MMEFS
GUIDANCE HAS ALL RIVER/CREEK FORECAST POINTS REMAINING BELOW
CAUTIONARY STAGE. SO WHILE AN ENCOURAGING TREND, WE RECOMMEND YOU
LOOK FOR FURTHER UPDATES THROUGH TODAY AS TODAY AND TONIGHT
APPEARS TO BE THE MOST VULNERABLE PERIOD FOR HEAVIER RAIN.

&&

.TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING...
THE ONGOING STORM WILL CONTINUE TO POSE A SIGNIFICANT COASTAL FLOOD
THREAT AS STRONG NE WINDS CONTINUE TO PRESS OCEAN WATERS BACK
TOWARDS THE LAND. THE ONSHORE FLOW WILL FORCE THE TIDES ACROSS DEL
BAY/RIVER AND THE BACK BAYS TO NOT FULLY RECEDE BEFORE THE
SUBSEQUENT HIGH TIDES. WE WILL SIMPLIFY THE HAZARDS BY JUST ISSUING
COASTAL FLOOD WARNINGS FOR ALL WATERS THRU SUNDAY. THE COASTAL FLOOD
WATCHES WERE DISCONTINUED...SINCE THE EVENT IS ONGOING NOW AND WE
WILL JUST MENTION THE FUTURE POTENTIAL IN THE WARNING STATEMENTS. IT
EXPECTED THAT COASTAL FLOOD ISSUES MAY CONTINUE PAST SUNDAY...BUT
THE WORST OF IT SHOULD BE OVER BY THEN.

&&

.CLIMATE...
TOP 5 WARMEST SEPTEMBER JUST COMPLETED.

PHL #2  POR 1874
1881 75.4
2015 74.5   5.4 DEGREES ABOVE NORMAL
1931 74.1
1930 74.1

ABE #3 POR 1922
1961 70.8
1980 70.3
2015 69.7 5.8 DEGREES ABOVE NORMAL
1931 69.4

ILG #3 POR 1917

1895 72.9
1961 72.5
2015 72.4 4.6 DEGREES ABOVE NORMAL
1930 72.3

ACY #5 POR 1874
1961 73.3
1881 72.8
1931 72.3
1930 72.3
1921 71.7
2015 71.6 4.4 DEGREES ABOVE NORMAL
1933 71.5

DAILY RECORD RAINFALL INFORMATION BELOW

    10/2
PHL 1.52-1929
ACY 1.74-1939
ILG 2.35-1929
GED 0.93-1989

&&

.PHI WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
PA...COASTAL FLOOD WARNING UNTIL MIDNIGHT EDT SUNDAY NIGHT FOR
     PAZ070-071-106.
NJ...COASTAL FLOOD WARNING UNTIL 6 PM EDT SUNDAY FOR NJZ012>014-
     020>027.
     WIND ADVISORY UNTIL 6 PM EDT SATURDAY FOR NJZ013-014-020-026-
     027.
     HIGH WIND WARNING UNTIL 1 AM EDT SATURDAY FOR NJZ022>025.
     COASTAL FLOOD WARNING UNTIL MIDNIGHT EDT SUNDAY NIGHT FOR
     NJZ015>019.
DE...COASTAL FLOOD WARNING UNTIL 6 PM EDT SUNDAY FOR DEZ002>004.
     HIGH WIND WARNING UNTIL 1 AM EDT SATURDAY FOR DEZ003-004.
     COASTAL FLOOD WARNING UNTIL MIDNIGHT EDT SUNDAY NIGHT FOR
     DEZ001.
MD...NONE.
MARINE...STORM WARNING UNTIL 1 AM EDT SATURDAY FOR ANZ452>455.
     GALE WARNING UNTIL 6 PM EDT SUNDAY FOR ANZ430-431-450-451.

&&

SYNOPSIS...GIGI/KLINE
NEAR TERM...O'HARA
SHORT TERM...O'HARA
LONG TERM...GIGI
AVIATION...GIGI/KLINE/O'HARA
MARINE...GIGI/KLINE/O'HARA
HYDROLOGY...GIGI
TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING...O'HARA
CLIMATE...DRAG

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MOUNT HOLLY NJ
849 PM EDT THU OCT 1 2015

MDZ008-012-015-019-020-NJZ001-007>010-015-PAZ054-055-060>062-101>106-
030100-
CECIL-KENT MD-QUEEN ANNES-TALBOT-CAROLINE-SUSSEX-WARREN-MORRIS-
HUNTERDON-SOMERSET-MERCER-CARBON-MONROE-BERKS-LEHIGH-NORTHAMPTON-
WESTERN CHESTER-EASTERN CHESTER-WESTERN MONTGOMERY-
EASTERN MONTGOMERY-UPPER BUCKS-LOWER BUCKS-
849 PM EDT THU OCT 1 2015

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR NORTHEAST MARYLAND...CENTRAL
NEW JERSEY...NORTHERN NEW JERSEY...NORTHWEST NEW JERSEY...EAST
CENTRAL PENNSYLVANIA...NORTHEAST PENNSYLVANIA AND SOUTHEAST
PENNSYLVANIA.

.DAY ONE...TONIGHT.

THE PROBABILITY FOR WIDESPREAD HAZARDOUS WEATHER IS LOW.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY.

HEAVY RAIN IS POSSIBLE FRIDAY AND FRIDAY NIGHT.

HURRICANE JOAQUIN'S UNCERTAIN FORECAST TRACK IS CURRENTLY OUTLOOKED
TO MOVE IT FURTHER EAST THAN FORECASTS FROM WEDNESDAY AND EARLY
THURSDAY. PLEASE CONTINUE TO MONITOR THE LATEST FORECASTS FOR THIS
SYSTEM FROM THE NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

SPOTTER ACTIVATION IS NOT EXPECTED AT THIS TIME.

DEZ001-NJZ016>019-PAZ070-071-030100-
NEW CASTLE-SALEM-GLOUCESTER-CAMDEN-NORTHWESTERN BURLINGTON-DELAWARE-
PHILADELPHIA-
849 PM EDT THU OCT 1 2015

...COASTAL FLOOD ADVISORY IN EFFECT UNTIL 6 PM EDT FRIDAY...
...COASTAL FLOOD WATCH IN EFFECT FROM FRIDAY EVENING THROUGH SUNDAY
AFTERNOON...

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR NORTHERN DELAWARE...SOUTHERN
NEW JERSEY AND SOUTHEAST PENNSYLVANIA.

.DAY ONE...TONIGHT.

PLEASE LISTEN TO NOAA WEATHER RADIO OR GO TO WEATHER.GOV ON THE
INTERNET FOR MORE INFORMATION ABOUT THE FOLLOWING HAZARDS.

   COASTAL FLOOD ADVISORY.

POOR DRAINAGE FLOODING RAIN MAY DEVELOP TOWARD DAWN.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY.

PLEASE LISTEN TO NOAA WEATHER RADIO OR GO TO WEATHER.GOV ON THE
INTERNET FOR MORE INFORMATION ABOUT THE FOLLOWING HAZARDS.

   COASTAL FLOOD ADVISORY.
   COASTAL FLOOD WATCH.

PERIODS OF HEAVY RAIN ARE LIKELY FRIDAY INTO FRIDAY NIGHT WITH
POOR DRAINAGE STREET FLOODING.

HURRICANE JOAQUIN'S UNCERTAIN FORECAST TRACK IS CURRENTLY OUTLOOKED
TO MOVE IT FURTHER EAST THAN FORECASTS FROM WEDNESDAY AND EARLY
THURSDAY. PLEASE CONTINUE TO MONITOR THE LATEST FORECASTS FOR THIS
SYSTEM FROM THE NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

SPOTTER ACTIVATION IS NOT EXPECTED AT THIS TIME.

DEZ002-NJZ012-021-030100-
KENT-MIDDLESEX-CUMBERLAND-
849 PM EDT THU OCT 1 2015

...COASTAL FLOOD WARNING IN EFFECT UNTIL 7 PM EDT SATURDAY...
...COASTAL FLOOD WATCH IN EFFECT FROM SATURDAY EVENING THROUGH
SUNDAY AFTERNOON...

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR CENTRAL DELAWARE...NORTHERN
NEW JERSEY AND SOUTHERN NEW JERSEY.

.DAY ONE...TONIGHT.

PLEASE LISTEN TO NOAA WEATHER RADIO OR GO TO WEATHER.GOV ON THE
INTERNET FOR MORE INFORMATION ABOUT THE FOLLOWING HAZARDS.

   COASTAL FLOOD WARNING.

HEAVY RAINS MAY DEVELOP LATE TONIGHT AND CAUSE POCKETS OF POOR
DRAINAGE STREET FLOODING.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY.

PLEASE LISTEN TO NOAA WEATHER RADIO OR GO TO WEATHER.GOV ON THE
INTERNET FOR MORE INFORMATION ABOUT THE FOLLOWING HAZARDS.

   COASTAL FLOOD WARNING.
   COASTAL FLOOD WATCH.

PERIODS OF HEAVY RAIN FRIDAY INTO FRIDAY NIGHT WILL PROBABLY
CAUSE SOME POOR DRAINAGE STREET FLOODING.

HURRICANE JOAQUIN'S UNCERTAIN FORECAST TRACK IS CURRENTLY OUTLOOKED
TO MOVE IT FURTHER EAST THAN FORECASTS FROM WEDNESDAY AND EARLY
THURSDAY. PLEASE CONTINUE TO MONITOR THE LATEST FORECASTS FOR THIS
SYSTEM FROM THE NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

SPOTTER ACTIVATION IS NOT EXPECTED AT THIS TIME.

DEZ003-NJZ013-020-022-023-027-030100-
INLAND SUSSEX-WESTERN MONMOUTH-OCEAN-ATLANTIC-CAPE MAY-
SOUTHEASTERN BURLINGTON-
849 PM EDT THU OCT 1 2015

...COASTAL FLOOD WARNING IN EFFECT UNTIL 7 PM EDT SATURDAY...
...WIND ADVISORY IN EFFECT FROM 2 AM TO 6 PM EDT FRIDAY...
...COASTAL FLOOD WATCH IN EFFECT FROM SATURDAY EVENING THROUGH
SUNDAY AFTERNOON...

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR SOUTHERN DELAWARE...CENTRAL
NEW JERSEY AND SOUTHERN NEW JERSEY.

.DAY ONE...TONIGHT.

PLEASE LISTEN TO NOAA WEATHER RADIO OR GO TO WEATHER.GOV ON THE
INTERNET FOR MORE INFORMATION ABOUT THE FOLLOWING HAZARDS.

   COASTAL FLOOD WARNING.
   WIND ADVISORY.

HEAVY RAIN LATER TONIGHT MAY CAUSE POCKETS OF POOR DRAINAGE STREET
FLOODING.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY.

PLEASE LISTEN TO NOAA WEATHER RADIO OR GO TO WEATHER.GOV ON THE
INTERNET FOR MORE INFORMATION ABOUT THE FOLLOWING HAZARDS.

   COASTAL FLOOD WARNING.
   WIND ADVISORY.
   COASTAL FLOOD WATCH.

PERIODS OF HEAVY RAIN FRIDAY AND FRIDAY NIGHT MAY CAUSE POCKETS OF
POOR DRAINAGE STREET FLOODING.

HURRICANE JOAQUIN'S UNCERTAIN FORECAST TRACK IS CURRENTLY OUTLOOKED
TO MOVE IT FURTHER EAST THAN FORECASTS FROM WEDNESDAY AND EARLY
THURSDAY. PLEASE CONTINUE TO MONITOR THE LATEST FORECASTS FOR THIS
SYSTEM FROM THE NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

SPOTTER ACTIVATION IS NOT EXPECTED AT THIS TIME.

DEZ004-NJZ014-024>026-030100-
DELAWARE BEACHES-EASTERN MONMOUTH-ATLANTIC COASTAL CAPE MAY-
COASTAL ATLANTIC-COASTAL OCEAN-
849 PM EDT THU OCT 1 2015

...COASTAL FLOOD WARNING IN EFFECT UNTIL 7 PM EDT SATURDAY...
...WIND ADVISORY IN EFFECT FROM 2 AM TO 6 PM EDT FRIDAY...
...HIGH WIND WATCH IN EFFECT FROM FRIDAY EVENING THROUGH SATURDAY
AFTERNOON...
...COASTAL FLOOD WATCH IN EFFECT FROM SATURDAY EVENING THROUGH
SUNDAY AFTERNOON...

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR SOUTHERN DELAWARE...CENTRAL
NEW JERSEY AND SOUTHERN NEW JERSEY.

.DAY ONE...TONIGHT.

PLEASE LISTEN TO NOAA WEATHER RADIO OR GO TO WEATHER.GOV ON THE
INTERNET FOR MORE INFORMATION ABOUT THE FOLLOWING HAZARDS.

   COASTAL FLOOD WARNING.
   WIND ADVISORY.

PERIODS OF HEAVY RAIN IN SOUTHERN NEW JERSEY AND DELAWARE WILL
PROBABLY CAUSE POCKETS OF POOR DRAINAGE STREET FLOODING.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY.

PLEASE LISTEN TO NOAA WEATHER RADIO OR GO TO WEATHER.GOV ON THE
INTERNET FOR MORE INFORMATION ABOUT THE FOLLOWING HAZARDS.

   COASTAL FLOOD WARNING.
   WIND ADVISORY.
   HIGH WIND WATCH.
   COASTAL FLOOD WATCH.

AREAS OF HEAVY RAIN, ESPECIALLY IN SOUTHERN JERSEY AND DELAWARE
WILL PROBABLY RESULT IN POCKETS OF POOR DRAINAGE STREET FLOODING.

HURRICANE JOAQUIN'S UNCERTAIN FORECAST TRACK IS CURRENTLY OUTLOOKED
TO MOVE IT FURTHER EAST THAN FORECASTS FROM WEDNESDAY AND EARLY
THURSDAY. PLEASE CONTINUE TO MONITOR THE LATEST FORECASTS FOR THIS
SYSTEM FROM THE NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

SPOTTER ACTIVATION IS NOT EXPECTED AT THIS TIME.

ANZ450>455-030100-
COASTAL WATERS FROM SANDY HOOK TO MANASQUAN INLET NJ OUT 20 NM-
COASTAL WATERS FROM MANASQUAN INLET TO LITTLE EGG INLET NJ OUT 20 NM-
COASTAL WATERS FROM LITTLE EGG INLET TO GREAT EGG INLET NJ OUT 20 NM-
COASTAL WATERS FROM GREAT EGG INLET TO CAPE MAY NJ OUT 20 NM-
COASTAL WATERS FROM CAPE MAY NJ TO CAPE HENLOPEN DE OUT 20 NM-
COASTAL WATERS FROM CAPE HENLOPEN TO FENWICK ISLAND DE OUT 20 NM-
849 PM EDT THU OCT 1 2015

...GALE WARNING IN EFFECT UNTIL 6 PM EDT FRIDAY...
...STORM WATCH IN EFFECT FROM FRIDAY EVENING THROUGH SATURDAY
AFTERNOON...

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR ATLANTIC COASTAL WATERS.

.DAY ONE...TONIGHT.

PLEASE LISTEN TO NOAA WEATHER RADIO OR GO TO WEATHER.GOV ON THE
INTERNET FOR MORE INFORMATION ABOUT THE FOLLOWING HAZARDS.

   GALE WARNING.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY.

PLEASE LISTEN TO NOAA WEATHER RADIO OR GO TO WEATHER.GOV ON THE
INTERNET FOR MORE INFORMATION ABOUT THE FOLLOWING HAZARDS.

   GALE WARNING.
   STORM WATCH.

HURRICANE JOAQUIN'S UNCERTAIN FORECAST TRACK IS CURRENTLY OUTLOOKED
TO MOVE IT FURTHER EAST THAN FORECASTS FROM WEDNESDAY AND EARLY
THURSDAY. PLEASE CONTINUE TO MONITOR THE LATEST FORECASTS FOR THIS
SYSTEM FROM THE NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

SPOTTER ACTIVATION IS NOT EXPECTED AT THIS TIME.

ANZ430-431-030100-
DELAWARE BAY WATERS NORTH OF EAST POINT NJ TO SLAUGHTER BEACH DE-
DELAWARE BAY WATERS SOUTH OF EAST POINT NJ TO SLAUGHTER BEACH DE-
849 PM EDT THU OCT 1 2015

...GALE WARNING IN EFFECT UNTIL 6 PM EDT SATURDAY...

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR DELAWARE BAY WATERS.

.DAY ONE...TONIGHT.

PLEASE LISTEN TO NOAA WEATHER RADIO OR GO TO WEATHER.GOV ON THE
INTERNET FOR MORE INFORMATION ABOUT THE FOLLOWING HAZARDS.

   GALE WARNING.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY.

PLEASE LISTEN TO NOAA WEATHER RADIO OR GO TO WEATHER.GOV ON THE
INTERNET FOR MORE INFORMATION ABOUT THE FOLLOWING HAZARDS.

   GALE WARNING.

HURRICANE JOAQUIN'S UNCERTAIN FORECAST TRACK IS CURRENTLY OUTLOOKED
TO MOVE IT FURTHER EAST THAN FORECASTS FROM WEDNESDAY AND EARLY
THURSDAY. PLEASE CONTINUE TO MONITOR THE LATEST FORECASTS FOR THIS
SYSTEM FROM THE NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

SPOTTER ACTIVATION IS NOT EXPECTED AT THIS TIME.