Gale Watch 12, NWS Philadelphia/Mount Holly

746 
WHUS71 KPHI 291931
MWWPHI

URGENT - MARINE WEATHER MESSAGE
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MOUNT HOLLY NJ
331 PM EDT TUE SEP 29 2015

...ANOTHER LONG SIEGE OF STRONG NORTHEAST WINDS AND ATLANTIC SEAS
ABOVE 8 FEET IS EXPECTED TO BEGIN THURSDAY AND LAST THROUGH THIS 
WEEKEND...

.A STRONG BLOCKING HIGH PRESSURE SYSTEM OVER SOUTHEAST CANADA
COMBINED WITH TROPICAL LOW PRESSURE ATTEMPTING TO MOVE SLOWLY
NORTH OFF THE EAST COAST IS SETTING THE STAGE FOR INTERMITTENT
GALE FORCE NORTHEAST WINDS LATE THIS WEEK THAT COULD FORCE SEAS
ABOVE 12 FEET. THERE IS EVEN A SMALL CHANCE OF STORM FORCE GUSTS
LATE FRIDAY OR THIS WEEKEND. HAZARDOUS SEAS COULD LAST WELL INTO
EARLY NEXT WEEK, DESPITE DIMINISHING WINDS. 

ANZ450-451-300915-
/O.CON.KPHI.SW.Y.0008.000000T0000Z-151001T0600Z/
/O.CON.KPHI.GL.A.0012.151001T0600Z-151001T2200Z/
COASTAL WATERS FROM SANDY HOOK TO MANASQUAN INLET NJ OUT 20 NM-
COASTAL WATERS FROM MANASQUAN INLET TO LITTLE EGG INLET NJ OUT
20 NM-
331 PM EDT TUE SEP 29 2015

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FOR HAZARDOUS SEAS REMAINS IN EFFECT
UNTIL 2 AM EDT THURSDAY...
...GALE WATCH REMAINS IN EFFECT FROM LATE WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH
THURSDAY AFTERNOON...

* LOCATIONS...THE NORTHERN AND CENTRAL NEW JERSEY ATLANTIC COASTAL WATERS.

* WINDS...SOUTHEAST WINDS UNDER 20 KNOTS WILL TURN SOUTH TO
  SOUTHWEST WEDNESDAY THEN SHIFT NORTH TO NORTHEAST WEDNESDAY
  NIGHT AND PROBABLY GUST 35 TO 40 KT AT TIMES THURSDAY,
  ESPECIALLY LATE IN THE DAY.

* SEAS...HAZARDOUS SEAS OF 4 TO 7 FEET BUILDING TO 7 TO 10 FEET
  LATER THURSDAY.

* OUTLOOK FRIDAY INTO NEXT WEEKEND...INTERMITTENT GALE FORCE
  NORTHEAST WINDS AND SEAS OF AROUND 10 FEET ARE LIKELY.

* TROPICAL OUTLOOK...PLEASE REFER TO THE LATEST STATEMENTS FROM
  THE NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER FOR UPDATES ON TROPICAL STORM
  JOAQUIN.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

A SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FOR HAZARDOUS SEAS MEANS THAT WAVES ARE
EXPECTED TO BE HAZARDOUS TO SMALL CRAFT. MARINERS SHOULD AVOID
SHOALING AREAS. LONG PERIOD SWELL CAN SHARPEN INTO LARGE BREAKING
WAVES IN SHOALING AREAS. IT IS NOT UNUSUAL FOR WAVES TO BREAK
MUCH FARTHER FROM SHOALING AREAS THAN IS NORMALLY EXPERIENCED.
REMEMBER...BREAKING WAVES CAN EASILY CAPSIZE EVEN LARGER VESSELS.

A GALE WATCH IS ISSUED WHEN THE RISK OF GALE FORCE WINDS OF 34 TO
47 KNOTS HAS SIGNIFICANTLY INCREASED...BUT THE SPECIFIC TIMING
AND/OR LOCATION IS STILL UNCERTAIN. IT IS INTENDED TO PROVIDE
ADDITIONAL LEAD TIME FOR MARINERS WHO MAY WISH TO CONSIDER
ALTERING THEIR PLANS.

&&

$$

ANZ452>455-300915-
/O.CON.KPHI.SW.Y.0008.000000T0000Z-151001T1200Z/
/O.CON.KPHI.GL.A.0012.151001T1200Z-151001T2200Z/
COASTAL WATERS FROM LITTLE EGG INLET TO GREAT EGG INLET NJ OUT
20 NM-
COASTAL WATERS FROM GREAT EGG INLET TO CAPE MAY NJ OUT 20 NM-
COASTAL WATERS FROM CAPE MAY NJ TO CAPE HENLOPEN DE OUT 20 NM-
COASTAL WATERS FROM CAPE HENLOPEN TO FENWICK ISLAND DE OUT 20 NM-
331 PM EDT TUE SEP 29 2015

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FOR HAZARDOUS SEAS REMAINS IN EFFECT
UNTIL 8 AM EDT THURSDAY...
...GALE WATCH REMAINS IN EFFECT FROM THURSDAY MORNING THROUGH
THURSDAY AFTERNOON...

* LOCATIONS...THE ATLANTIC COASTAL WATERS OF SOUTHERN NEW JERSEY
  AND DELAWARE.

* WINDS...SOUTHEAST WINDS UNDER 20 KNOTS WILL TURN SOUTH TO
  SOUTHWEST WEDNESDAY THEN SHIFT NORTH TO NORTHEAST WEDNESDAY
  NIGHT AND PROBABLY GUST 35 KT AT TIMES THURSDAY, ESPECIALLY
  LATE IN THE DAY.

* SEAS...HAZARDOUS SEAS OF 5 TO 7 FEET THROUGH WEDNESDAY EVENING
  WILL BUILD TO 7 TO 10 FEET THURSDAY.

* OUTLOOK FRIDAY INTO NEXT WEEKEND...INTERMITTENT GALE FORCE
  NORTHEAST WINDS AND SEAS OF AROUND 10 TO 13 FEET ARE LIKELY.

* TROPICAL OUTLOOK...PLEASE REFER TO THE LATEST STATEMENTS FROM
  THE NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER FOR UPDATES ON TROPICAL STORM
  JOAQUIN.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

A SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FOR HAZARDOUS SEAS MEANS THAT WAVES ARE
EXPECTED TO BE HAZARDOUS TO SMALL CRAFT. MARINERS SHOULD AVOID
SHOALING AREAS. LONG PERIOD SWELL CAN SHARPEN INTO LARGE BREAKING
WAVES IN SHOALING AREAS. IT IS NOT UNUSUAL FOR WAVES TO BREAK
MUCH FARTHER FROM SHOALING AREAS THAN IS NORMALLY EXPERIENCED.
REMEMBER...BREAKING WAVES CAN EASILY CAPSIZE EVEN LARGER VESSELS.

A GALE WATCH IS ISSUED WHEN THE RISK OF GALE FORCE WINDS OF 34 TO
47 KNOTS HAS SIGNIFICANTLY INCREASED...BUT THE SPECIFIC TIMING
AND/OR LOCATION IS STILL UNCERTAIN. IT IS INTENDED TO PROVIDE
ADDITIONAL LEAD TIME FOR MARINERS WHO MAY WISH TO CONSIDER
ALTERING THEIR PLANS.

&&

$$

447 
WHUS71 KPHI 300059
MWWPHI

URGENT - MARINE WEATHER MESSAGE
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MOUNT HOLLY NJ
859 PM EDT TUE SEP 29 2015

...ANOTHER LONG SIEGE OF STRONG NORTHEAST WINDS AND ATLANTIC SEAS
ABOVE 8 FEET IS EXPECTED TO BEGIN THURSDAY AND LAST THROUGH THIS
WEEKEND...

.A STRONG BLOCKING HIGH PRESSURE SYSTEM OVER SOUTHEAST CANADA
COMBINED WITH TROPICAL LOW PRESSURE ATTEMPTING TO MOVE SLOWLY
NORTH OFF THE EAST COAST IS SETTING THE STAGE FOR INTERMITTENT
GALE FORCE NORTHEAST WINDS LATE THIS WEEK THAT COULD FORCE SEAS
ABOVE 12 FEET. THERE IS EVEN A SMALL CHANCE OF STORM FORCE GUSTS
LATE FRIDAY OR THIS WEEKEND. HAZARDOUS SEAS COULD LAST WELL INTO
EARLY NEXT WEEK... DESPITE DIMINISHING WINDS.

ANZ450-451-301400-
/O.CAN.KPHI.SW.Y.0008.000000T0000Z-151001T0600Z/
/O.NEW.KPHI.SC.Y.0152.150930T0059Z-151001T0600Z/
/O.UPG.KPHI.GL.A.0012.151001T0600Z-151001T2200Z/
/O.NEW.KPHI.GL.W.0021.151001T0600Z-151002T1000Z/
COASTAL WATERS FROM SANDY HOOK TO MANASQUAN INLET NJ OUT 20 NM-
COASTAL WATERS FROM MANASQUAN INLET TO LITTLE EGG INLET NJ OUT
20 NM-
859 PM EDT TUE SEP 29 2015

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY IN EFFECT UNTIL 2 AM EDT THURSDAY...
...GALE WARNING IN EFFECT FROM 2 AM THURSDAY TO 6 AM EDT FRIDAY...

THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN MOUNT HOLLY HAS ISSUED A GALE
WARNING...WHICH IS IN EFFECT FROM 2 AM THURSDAY TO 6 AM EDT
FRIDAY. A SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY HAS ALSO BEEN ISSUED. THIS SMALL
CRAFT ADVISORY IS IN EFFECT UNTIL 2 AM EDT THURSDAY AND REPLACES
THE SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FOR HAZARDOUS SEAS. THE GALE WATCH IS NO
LONGER IN EFFECT.

* LOCATIONS...THE NORTHERN AND CENTRAL NEW JERSEY ATLANTIC 
  COASTAL WATERS.

* WINDS...SOUTHEAST WITH GUSTS TO NEAR 25 KNOTS EARLY WEDNESDAY
  WILL TURN SOUTH TO SOUTHWEST DURING THE DAY WEDNESDAY THEN SHIFT NORTH
  TO NORTHEAST WEDNESDAY NIGHT AND GUST 35 TO 40 KT AT TIMES
  THURSDAY AND THURSDAY NIGHT.

* SEAS...4 TO 7 FEET TONIGHT AND WEDNESDAY INCREASING TO 8 TO 12
  FEET THURSDAY AND THURSDAY NIGHT.

* OUTLOOK FRIDAY INTO NEXT WEEKEND...INTERMITTENT GALE FORCE 
  NORTHEAST WINDS AND SEAS OF AROUND 10 FEET ARE LIKELY.

* TROPICAL OUTLOOK...PLEASE REFER TO THE LATEST STATEMENTS FROM 
  THE NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER FOR UPDATES ON TROPICAL STORM 
  JOAQUIN.



PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

A GALE WARNING MEANS WINDS OF 34 TO 47 KNOTS ARE IMMINENT OR
OCCURRING. OPERATING A VESSEL IN GALE CONDITIONS REQUIRES
EXPERIENCE AND PROPERLY EQUIPPED VESSELS. IT IS HIGHLY
RECOMMENDED THAT MARINERS WITHOUT THE PROPER EXPERIENCE SEEK SAFE
HARBOR PRIOR TO THE ONSET OF GALE CONDITIONS.

A SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY MEANS THAT WIND SPEEDS OF 25 TO 33 KNOTS
ARE EXPECTED TO PRODUCE HAZARDOUS WAVE CONDITIONS TO SMALL CRAFT.
INEXPERIENCED MARINERS...ESPECIALLY THOSE OPERATING SMALLER
VESSELS SHOULD AVOID NAVIGATING IN THESE CONDITIONS.

&&

$$

ANZ452>455-301400-
/O.CON.KPHI.SW.Y.0008.000000T0000Z-151001T1200Z/
/O.UPG.KPHI.GL.A.0012.151001T1200Z-151001T2200Z/
/O.NEW.KPHI.GL.W.0021.151001T1200Z-151002T1000Z/
COASTAL WATERS FROM LITTLE EGG INLET TO GREAT EGG INLET NJ OUT
20 NM-
COASTAL WATERS FROM GREAT EGG INLET TO CAPE MAY NJ OUT 20 NM-
COASTAL WATERS FROM CAPE MAY NJ TO CAPE HENLOPEN DE OUT 20 NM-
COASTAL WATERS FROM CAPE HENLOPEN TO FENWICK ISLAND DE OUT 20 NM-
859 PM EDT TUE SEP 29 2015

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FOR HAZARDOUS SEAS REMAINS IN EFFECT
UNTIL 8 AM EDT THURSDAY...
...GALE WARNING IN EFFECT FROM 8 AM THURSDAY TO 6 AM EDT FRIDAY...

THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN MOUNT HOLLY HAS ISSUED A GALE
WARNING...WHICH IS IN EFFECT FROM 8 AM THURSDAY TO 6 AM EDT
FRIDAY. THE GALE WATCH IS NO LONGER IN EFFECT.

* LOCATIONS...THE ATLANTIC COASTAL WATERS OF SOUTHERN NEW JERSEY 
  AND DELAWARE.

* WINDS...SOUTHEAST WINDS GENERALLY UNDER 20 KNOTS WILL TURN
  SOUTH TO SOUTHWEST WEDNESDAY THEN SHIFT NORTH TO NORTHEAST
  WEDNESDAY NIGHT AND PROBABLY GUST 35 KT AT TIMES THURSDAY...
  ESPECIALLY LATE IN THE DAY.

* SEAS...5 TO 8 FEET TONIGHT AND WEDNESDAY BUILDING TO 10 TO 13
  FEET THURSDAY AND THURSDAY NIGHT.

* OUTLOOK FRIDAY INTO NEXT WEEKEND...INTERMITTENT GALE FORCE
  NORTHEAST WINDS AND SEAS OF AROUND 10 TO 15 FEET ARE LIKELY.

* TROPICAL OUTLOOK...PLEASE REFER TO THE LATEST STATEMENTS FROM 
  THE NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER FOR UPDATES ON TROPICAL STORM 
  JOAQUIN.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

A GALE WARNING MEANS WINDS OF 34 TO 47 KNOTS ARE IMMINENT OR
OCCURRING. OPERATING A VESSEL IN GALE CONDITIONS REQUIRES
EXPERIENCE AND PROPERLY EQUIPPED VESSELS. IT IS HIGHLY
RECOMMENDED THAT MARINERS WITHOUT THE PROPER EXPERIENCE SEEK SAFE
HARBOR PRIOR TO THE ONSET OF GALE CONDITIONS.

A SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FOR HAZARDOUS SEAS MEANS THAT WAVES ARE
EXPECTED TO BE HAZARDOUS TO SMALL CRAFT. MARINERS SHOULD AVOID
SHOALING AREAS. LONG PERIOD SWELL CAN SHARPEN INTO LARGE BREAKING
WAVES IN SHOALING AREAS. IT IS NOT UNUSUAL FOR WAVES TO BREAK
MUCH FARTHER FROM SHOALING AREAS THAN IS NORMALLY EXPERIENCED.
REMEMBER...BREAKING WAVES CAN EASILY CAPSIZE EVEN LARGER VESSELS.

&&

$$

ANZ431-301400-
/O.NEW.KPHI.GL.A.0013.151001T1800Z-151002T1000Z/
DELAWARE BAY WATERS SOUTH OF EAST POINT NJ TO SLAUGHTER BEACH DE-
859 PM EDT TUE SEP 29 2015

...GALE WATCH IN EFFECT FROM THURSDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH LATE
THURSDAY NIGHT...

THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN MOUNT HOLLY HAS ISSUED A GALE
WATCH...WHICH IS IN EFFECT FROM THURSDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH LATE
THURSDAY NIGHT.

* WINDS...SOUTHEAST WINDS OVERNIGHT GENERALLY UNDER 22 KNOTS TURN
  SOUTHERLY WEDNESDAY THEN SHIFT NORTH WEDNESDAY NIGHT. NORTHEAST
  WINDS INCREASE THURSDAY AFTERNOON AND THURSDAY NIGHT WITH GUSTS
  35KT POSSIBLE.

* SEAS...GENERALLY LESS THAN 3 FEET THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT
  INCREASE TO 3 TO 5 FEET THURSDAY AND THURSDAY NIGHT.


PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

A GALE WATCH IS ISSUED WHEN THE RISK OF GALE FORCE WINDS OF 34 TO
47 KNOTS HAS SIGNIFICANTLY INCREASED...BUT THE SPECIFIC TIMING
AND/OR LOCATION IS STILL UNCERTAIN. IT IS INTENDED TO PROVIDE
ADDITIONAL LEAD TIME FOR MARINERS WHO MAY WISH TO CONSIDER
ALTERING THEIR PLANS.

&&

$$

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MOUNT HOLLY NJ
1228 AM EDT TUE SEP 29 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE REMAINS OVER THE WESTERN ATLANTIC THROUGH TUESDAY.
A COLD FRONT CROSSES THE MID ATLANTIC COAST FROM WEST TO EAST ON
WEDNESDAY WITH AN AREA OF LOW PRESSURE DEVELOPING ALONG THE FRONT.
THE FRONT SHOULD STALL OFF THE EAST COAST THURSDAY THROUGH
SATURDAY WHILE STRONG HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS INTO SOUTHEAST CANADA.
ATTENTION THEN TURNS DIRECTLY TO THE UNCERTAIN NORTHWARD TRACK AND
INTENSIFICATION OF TROPICAL STORM JOAQUIN. IT CURRENTLY IS LOCATED
WELL TO THE SOUTHWEST OF BERMUDA. IT HAS POTENTIAL TO GROW INTO A
TROPICAL STORM AS IT HEADS NORTH FOR AN ESTIMATED POSITION
SOMEWHERE TO THE EAST OF THE DELMARVA ON FRIDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM THIS MORNING/...
A GOOD DEAL OF LOW LEVEL MOISTURE HAS SETTLED IN OUR REGION ON A
LIGHT SOUTHEASTERLY SURFACE FLOW. DEW POINT READINGS WERE MAINLY
IN THE MIDDLE AND UPPER 60S AROUND MIDNIGHT. WHILE THE LOW CLOUDS
AND FOG WERE DEVELOPING A LITTLE MORE SLOWLY THAN THEY DID LAST
NIGHT, IT CONTINUES TO APPEAR AS THOUGH THEY WILL EXPAND OVERNIGHT
AND WE WILL KEEP THEIR MENTION IN THE FORECAST.

LIGHT RAIN SHOWERS WERE SCATTERED FROM BERKS COUNTY, THE LEHIGH
VALLEY AND THE POCONOS IN PENNSYLVANIA INTO NORTHERN NEW JERSEY
AROUND MIDNIGHT. THE SHOWERS ARE EXPECTED TO CONTINUE LIFTING TO
THE NORTH.

THE CLOUD COVER AND THE THE LIGHT SOUTHEAST WIND SHOULD PREVENT
TEMPERATURES FROM FALLING BELOW THE 60S IN OUR REGION OVERNIGHT.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM THIS MORNING THROUGH 6 AM WEDNESDAY/...
FOG MAY BE SLOWER TO BURN OFF COMPARED TO MONDAY, ESPECIALLY IN
THE DELAWARE VALLEY, WHERE IT MAY LINGER UNTIL 13 OR 14Z.

A WEAK COOL FRONT WILL APPROACH FROM THE WEST ON TUESDAY. AS A
RESULT, COLUMN MOISTURE WILL INCREASE, ESPECIALLY NORTHWEST OF
I-95. THE BEST LIFT HOLDS OFF UNTIL LATER IN THE AFTERNOON AND IS
ALSO SITUATED NORTHWEST OF I-95. THIS IS WHERE THE GREATEST CHANCE
OF PRECIP WILL RESIDE, WITH AN ADDTL CONTRIBUTION FROM OROGRAPHIC
LIFT, WHILE THE RIDGE AXIS STILL MAINTAINS SOME DRIER AIR IN THE
COASTAL PLAIN. THERE IS ALSO SOME INSTABILITY OVER DELMARVA, SO
CANNOT RULE OUT A RUMBLE OF THUNDER AS WELL. MAX TEMPERATURES WILL
BE ABOUT 10 DEGREES ABOVE AVERAGE.

&&

.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
A COLD FRONT IS EXPECTED TO APPROACH FROM THE NORTHWEST TUESDAY
NIGHT. A WAVE OF LOW PRESSURE MAY DEVELOP ALONG THE BOUNDARY NEAR
THE CENTRAL APPALACHIANS THAT MOVES INTO OUR AREA, WHICH WOULD
SLOW DOWN THE DOWNSTREAM PROGRESSION FRONT AS IT NEARS THE COAST
WEDNESDAY. MODELS CONTINUE TO OFFER CONSIDERABLY DIFFERENT
SOLUTIONS FOR THE TIMING AND TRACK OF THE DEVELOPING LOW, WHICH
HAS BIG IMPLICATIONS FOR WHERE AND WHEN THE HEAVIEST RAINFALL
OCCURS. IF THE LOW GETS ITS ACT TOGETHER QUICKLY, THEN THE
HEAVIEST RAINFALL MAY OCCUR TUESDAY NIGHT AND FARTHER
INLAND...POSSIBLY EVEN TO THE WEST OF OUR AREA. IF THE LOW
DEVELOPS LATER, THEN THE HEAVIEST RAINFALL MAY HOLD OFF UNTIL
WEDNESDAY AND THE AXIS OF HEAVIEST RAIN SHIFTS TOWARD THE
COAST...POSSIBLY EVEN OFFSHORE. REGARDLESS, THIS SYSTEM LOOKS TO
HAVE AN IMPRESSIVE CONNECTION OF TROPICAL MOISTURE FROM BOTH
TROPICAL DEPRESSION 11 IN THE ATLANTIC AND THE GULF OF MEXICO.
FORECAST SOUNDINGS SHOW AN ANOMALOUSLY DEEP WARM CLOUD LAYER AS
FREEZING LEVELS ARE NEAR 15 KFT AIR MASS. PWATS ARE FORECAST TO
MEET OR EXCEED 2.25 INCHES, WHICH WOULD BE APPROACHING +3SD FOR
THE END OF THE MONTH. NONETHELESS, THE ENVIRONMENT WILL DEFINITELY
BE SUPPORTIVE OF EFFICIENT RAINFALL PRODUCERS. SEE THE HYDRO
SECTION FOR A DISCUSSION ON ANY POTENTIAL FLOODING IMPACTS.

THE FRONT IS EXPECTED TO STALL JUST OFF THE EASTERN SEABOARD LATE
IN THE WEEK. THERE IS A POTENTIAL FOR ONE OR EVEN TWO ADDITIONAL
WAVES OF LOW PRESSURE TO DEVELOP AND TRACK NORTHWARD ALONG THE
STALLED BOUNDARY LATE THIS WEEK INTO THE WEEKEND. ONE OF THESE
DISTURBANCES WOULD MOST LIKELY BE CLOSEST TO OUR LATITUDE AND BE
ASSOCIATED WITH WHAT IS CURRENTLY TROPICAL STORM JOAQUIN. SEE THE
LATEST NHC FORECAST. THE SECOND SYSTEM WOULD BE ASSOCIATED WITH
THE LOW THAT IS CURRENTLY OVER THE GULF COAST STATES. IT IS STILL
UNCERTAIN IF EITHER OF THESE SYSTEMS TRACK CLOSE ENOUGH TO THE
COAST TO BRING HEAVY RAINFALL BACK TO THE AREA. IT'S STILL 4-5
DAYS OUT, SO WE'LL BROADLY MENTION POTENTIAL IMPACTS IN THE HWO.
REGARDLESS OF THE EXACT TRACK, THERE WILL BE A TIGHT PRESSURE
GRADIENT IN BETWEEN THE LOW AND STRONG HIGH PRESSURE BUILDING
SOUTHWARD FROM CANADA THAT DEVELOPS OVER OUR AREA LATE IN THE
WEEK. THIS WOULD PRODUCE STRONG NORTH OR NORTHEAST WINDS, WHICH
COULD GUST 30-40 MPH NEAR THE COAST. SEE THE COASTAL FLOODING AND
MARINE SECTIONS FOR MORE INFORMATION ON POTENTIAL IMPACTS LATE IN
THE WEEK.

THE LAST OF THE STORM SYSTEMS WILL EVENTUALLY PULL AWAY FROM THE
AREA LATE IN THE WEEKEND. HIGH PRESSURE THEN BUILDS IN FROM THE
WEST, LEADING TO A MUCH QUIETER AND DRY PERIOD EARLY NEXT WEEK.
LONG RANGE GUIDANCE ALSO HINTS AT THE POSSIBILITY OF THE COOLEST
AIR MASS OF THE SEASON ARRIVING DURING THIS TIME.

&&

.AVIATION /04Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
THE FOLLOWING DISCUSSION IS FOR KPHL, KPNE, KTTN, KABE, KRDG,
KILG, KMIV, KACY AND SURROUNDING AREAS.

TONIGHT...GENERALLY VFR SCT-BKN AOA 3000 FT WITH ISOLATED LIGHT
SHOWERS EARLY TONIGHT E PA AND NNJ. IFR ST/FOG SHOULD DEVELOP LATE
TONIGHT BUT IT IS QUESTIONABLE HOW DENSE, SINCE LAYERS OF
CLOUDINESS ABOVE 3000 FT MAY PREVENT LIFR. LIGHT EAST TO SOUTHEAST
WIND. CONFIDENCE: LESS THAN AVERAGE.

TUESDAY...IFR CIGS/VSBY IN ST/FOG IMPROVE TO CIGS AOA 3500 FT BY
MIDDAY WITH A CHANCE OF AN AFTERNOON SHOWER, ESPECIALLY KRDG AND
KABE. SE WIND GUST TO 15 KT DURING THE AFTERNOON. CONFIDENCE:
AVERAGE.

OUTLOOK...
TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT...STEADY RAIN EXPECTED TO
OVERSPREAD THE AREA AS EARLY AS TUESDAY NIGHT AND BE HEAVY AT
TIMES THRU WEDNESDAY, POSSIBLY LINGERING INTO WEDNESDAY NIGHT.
ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS MAY DEVELOP. IFR CONDITIONS LIKELY IN
HEAVIER RAIN. OTHERWISE, MVFR.

THURSDAY THROUGH SATURDAY...MAINLY MVFR WITH N-NE FLOW YIELDING
LOW CLOUDS. POTENTIAL FOR HEAVIER RAIN FRIDAY AND/OR SATURDAY
DEPENDING ON IF THE FRONT STALLS CLOSER TO THE COAST. UNCERTAINTY
IS VERY HIGH. OVERALL, RAIN CHANCES HIGHEST TOWARD THE COAST.
WINDS COULD BE GUSTY AS WELL.

TROPICAL STORM JOAQUIN'S TRACK REMAINS UNCERTAIN.

&&

.MARINE...
WINDS GRADUALLY SHIFT FROM EAST TONIGHT TO SOUTHEAST BY EARLY
TUESDAY MORNING, GENERALLY AROUND 10 KNOTS. SEAS WILL REMAIN
ELEVATED AROUND 5 OR 6 FT ACROSS THE ATLANTIC WATERS. THEREFORE,
THE SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FOR HAZARDOUS SEAS REMAINS IN PLACE.

OUTLOOK...
TUESDAY NIGHT AND WEDNESDAY...A SCA FOR HAZARDOUS SEAS EXTENDED
WITH 4 TO 7 FT SEAS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE OVER THE ATLANTIC ZONES.
NELY WINDS MAY START TO INCREASE WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON BUT LIKELY
STAY BELOW SCA THRESHOLD.

WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT...SCA CONDITIONS EXPECTED TO
CONTINUE. N-NELY WINDS BETWEEN 20-30 KT LIKELY. GUIDANCE HAS
DELAYED THE ONSET OF GALE FORCE GUSTS UNTIL THURSDAY AFTERNOON OR
NIGHT AS LOW PRESSURE DEEPENS OFFSHORE. SEAS WILL ALSO BUILD TO
6-10+ FT.

SATURDAY...WINDS BECOME MORE N-NWLY BEHIND THE LOW BUT STILL GUST
TO SCA LEVELS. HIGH SEAS WILL STILL BE A CONCERN.

TROPICAL STORM JOAQUIN'S TRACK REMAINS UNCERTAIN.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
OVER THE PAST TWO DAYS, THE OPERATIONAL GUIDANCE HAVE ALL BEEN
PERSISTENT IN SHOWING 1-2 INCHES OF RAINFALL DURING THE TUESDAY
NIGHT THRU WEDNESDAY NIGHT SYSTEM. HOWEVER, THEY HAVE ALSO BEEN
ADVERTISING A SWATH OF EXCESSIVE RAINFALL (4-8") BUT CONTINUE TO
DIFFER IN THE PLACEMENT OF IT. BASED ON THE LATEST 12Z MODEL RUNS
AND 09Z SREF/GEFS QPF EXCEEDANCE PROBABILITIES, THERE IS SOME
CONVERGENCE TOWARD THE AXIS OF HEAVY RAINFALL ACROSS THE POCONOS
AND LOCATIONS FARTHER NORTH AND WEST.

STILL TOO MUCH FORECAST UNCERTAINTY TO ISSUE A FLASH FLOOD WATCH
FOR A POTENTIAL EVENT TWO DAYS OUT. ALSO, DRY ANTECEDENT
CONDITIONS SHOULD LIMIT THE EXTENT OF ANY WIDESPREAD FLASH
FLOODING, THOUGH LOCALIZED FLOODING IN POOR DRAINAGE/URBAN AREAS
ARE POSSIBLE IN VERY HEAVY RAINFALL RATES. LARGE-STEM RIVER
FLOODING IS NOT EXPECTED.

THERE IS ANOTHER POSSIBILITY FOR HEAVY RAINFALL DURING THE
FRIDAY-SATURDAY TIME FRAME BUT THERE IS EVEN MORE UNCERTAINTY IF
TROPICAL STORM JOAQUIN TRACKS CLOSE ENOUGH TO THE COAST TO TARGET
OUR AREA WITH HEAVY RAINFALL.

&&

.TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING...
SOCIAL MEDIA (PHI FBOOK AND TWITTER) HAS A POST ON PROBABLE MINOR
COASTAL FLOODING FOR THE NJ AND DE ATLANTIC COASTS THURSDAY. ITS A
LITTLE TOO FAR IN ADVANCE TO ISSUE A COASTAL FLOOD ADVISORY AT
THIS TIME.

WINDS HAVE WEAKENED JUST A BIT TODAY AND THAT HAS BEEN ENOUGH TO
HELP ALLOW TIDAL DEPARTURES TO DECREASE. TIDES WILL CONTINUE TO
RUN HIGH THROUGH TONIGHT AND NEAR MINOR FLOOD LEVELS BUT ARE
EXPECTED TO REMAIN JUST BELOW. THEREFORE, NO COASTAL FLOOD
ADVISORIES WILL BE ISSUED FOR TONIGHT'S HIGH TIDE CYCLE.

WE ARE IN A PERIOD OF TIDES WHERE WE ARE SEEING THE HIGHER OF THE
HIGH TIDES TRANSITION FROM THE EVENING HIGH TIDE TO THE MORNING
HIGH TIDE. AS A RESULT, TUESDAY MORNINGS HIGH TIDE LOOKS TO BE
HIGHER THAN TONIGHT'S HIGH TIDE. WITH AN INCREASING EASTERLY FLOW
DEVELOPING THROUGH THE COURSE OF THE WEEK, WE WILL NEED TO MONITOR
EACH HIGH TIDE CYCLE AS TIDAL FLOODING WILL CONTINUE TO BE A
CONCERN.

A STRONG NORTH-NORTHEAST WIND IS FORECAST TO DEVELOP LATE IN THE
WEEK AS LOW PRESSURE IS FORECAST TO INTERACT WITH AN OFFSHORE
FRONTAL BOUNDARY. THE POTENTIAL FOR MINOR TO MODERATE COASTAL
FLOODING WILL INCREASE DURING THIS TIME. ALSO, THERE IS AN
INCREASING CONCERN FOR BEACH EROSION.

TROPICAL STORM JOAQUIN'S TRACK REMAINS UNCERTAIN.

&&

.RIP CURRENTS...
THE COMBINATION OF HIGH WAVES, MODERATE PERIOD SWELL, AND A
STEADY EASTERLY FLOW WILL CONTINUE TO CREATE A HIGH RISK FOR THE
DEVELOPMENT OF DANGEROUS RIP CURRENTS THROUGH TUESDAY.

FOR WEDNESDAY, THE FLOW WILL BECOME MORE SOUTHEASTERLY, WHICH
WILL MAINTAIN THE AFOREMENTIONED SEA-STATE. THEREFORE, A HIGH RISK
OF RIP CURRENTS MAY CONTINUE.

THE SURF ZONE FORECAST ENDS WITH THE MORNING FORECAST ON
WEDNESDAY THE 30TH.

&&

.CLIMATE...
KPHL, KILG, KACY AND KABE ALL PROBABLY GOING TO HAVE CULMINATED A
16 CONSECUTIVE DAY STRETCH OF NO MEASURABLE RAIN FROM THE 13TH
THROUGH TODAY THE 28TH. IT SHOULD MEASURE BY 1 AM WEDNESDAY (29TH
CLIMATE) BUT EVEN THEN, THERE IS A CHANCE MEASURABLE WILL NOT
REACH KACY BEFORE 1 AM WEDNESDAY. WHILE THIS IS A LONG SPELL OF
DRY WEATHER, IT IS FAR FROM A RECORD.

THE MONTH OF SEPTEMBER WILL GO INTO THE BOOKS AS ONE OF THE
WARMEST ON RECORD.

KPHL IS NOW PROJECTING 74.3... OR 2ND WARMEST. NORMAL IS 69.1
DEPARTURE PLUS 5.2. POR BACK TO 1874

1881 75.4
2015 74.3
1931 74.1
1930 74.1

KABE IS NOW PROJECTING 69.3......STILL 4TH WARMEST. NORMAL IS
63.9 DEPARTURE PLUS 5.4 POR BACK TO 1922

1961 70.8
1980 70.3
1931 69.4
2015 69.3
2005 68.7

KILG IS NOW PROJECTING 72.3...OR TIED FOR 3RD WARMEST. NORMAL
67.8 DEPARTURE PLUS 4.5 POR BACK TO 1917. THERE WAS A MISSING
PERIOD BETWEEN 1897-1916

1895 72.9
1961 72.5
1930 72.3
2015 72.3
1970 72.1
1931 72.1

KACY PROJECTING 71.3 TIED FOR 7TH WARMEST. NORMAL 67.2 DEPARTURE
PLUS 3.9 POR BACK TO 1874

1961 73.3
1881 72.8
1931 72.3
1930 72.3
1921 71.7
1933 71.5
2015 71.3
2010 71.0

&&

.PHI WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
PA...NONE.
NJ...HIGH RIP CURRENT RISK THROUGH THIS EVENING FOR NJZ014-024>026.
DE...HIGH RIP CURRENT RISK THROUGH THIS EVENING FOR DEZ004.
MD...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FOR HAZARDOUS SEAS UNTIL 6 PM EDT
     WEDNESDAY FOR ANZ450>455.

&&

SYNOPSIS...DRAG/KLEIN
NEAR TERM...IOVINO
SHORT TERM...FRANCK
LONG TERM...DRAG/KLEIN
AVIATION...DRAG/FRANCK/KLEIN
MARINE...DRAG/FRANCK/KLEIN
HYDROLOGY...STAFF
TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING...STAFF
RIP CURRENTS...DRAG
CLIMATE...DRAG

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MOUNT HOLLY NJ
821 PM EDT MON SEP 28 2015

DEZ001-MDZ008-012-015-019-020-NJZ001-007>010-015>019-PAZ054-055-
060>062-070-071-101>106-300030-
NEW CASTLE-CECIL-KENT MD-QUEEN ANNES-TALBOT-CAROLINE-SUSSEX-WARREN-
MORRIS-HUNTERDON-SOMERSET-MERCER-SALEM-GLOUCESTER-CAMDEN-
NORTHWESTERN BURLINGTON-CARBON-MONROE-BERKS-LEHIGH-NORTHAMPTON-
DELAWARE-PHILADELPHIA-WESTERN CHESTER-EASTERN CHESTER-
WESTERN MONTGOMERY-EASTERN MONTGOMERY-UPPER BUCKS-LOWER BUCKS-
821 PM EDT MON SEP 28 2015

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR NORTHERN DELAWARE...NORTHEAST
MARYLAND...CENTRAL NEW JERSEY...NORTHERN NEW JERSEY...NORTHWEST NEW
JERSEY...SOUTHERN NEW JERSEY...EAST CENTRAL
PENNSYLVANIA...NORTHEAST PENNSYLVANIA AND SOUTHEAST PENNSYLVANIA.

.DAY ONE...TONIGHT.

WIDESPREAD HAZARDOUS WEATHER IS NOT EXPECTED AT THIS TIME.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY.

MODERATE TO HEAVY RAINFALL TUESDAY NIGHT INTO WEDNESDAY MAY
RESULT IN LOCALIZED FLOODING IN POOR DRAINAGE AND URBAN AREAS.

TROPICAL DEPRESSION 11 IS FORECAST TO TRACK SOMEWHERE NORTHWARD OFF
THE MID-ATLANTIC COAST LATE IN THE WEEK. DEPENDING ON THE TRACK,
ANOTHER ROUND OF POTENTIALLY HEAVY RAINFALL MAY RESULT IN
ADDITIONAL FLOODING PROBLEMS LATE THIS WEEK OR THIS WEEKEND.
PLEASE CONTINUE TO MONITOR THE LATEST FORECASTS FOR THIS SYSTEM
FROM THE NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

SPOTTER ACTIVATION IS NOT EXPECTED AT THIS TIME.

DEZ002-003-NJZ012-013-020>023-027-300030-
KENT-INLAND SUSSEX-MIDDLESEX-WESTERN MONMOUTH-OCEAN-CUMBERLAND-
ATLANTIC-CAPE MAY-SOUTHEASTERN BURLINGTON-
821 PM EDT MON SEP 28 2015

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR CENTRAL DELAWARE...SOUTHERN
DELAWARE...CENTRAL NEW JERSEY...NORTHERN NEW JERSEY AND SOUTHERN
NEW JERSEY.

.DAY ONE...TONIGHT.

HAZARDOUS WEATHER IS NOT EXPECTED AT THIS TIME.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY.

MODERATE TO HEAVY RAINFALL TUESDAY NIGHT INTO WEDNESDAY MAY
RESULT IN LOCALIZED FLOODING IN AREAS OF POOR DRAINAGE.

TROPICAL DEPRESSION 11 IS FORECAST TO TRACK SOMEWHERE NORTHWARD OFF
THE MID-ATLANTIC COAST LATE IN THE WEEK. DEPENDING ON THE TRACK,
ANOTHER ROUND OF POTENTIALLY HEAVY RAINFALL MAY RESULT IN
ADDITIONAL FLOODING PROBLEMS LATE THIS WEEK OR THIS WEEKEND.
ADDITIONALLY, A STRONG ONSHORE FLOW IS EXPECTED TO DEVELOP AND
IS LIKELY TO CAUSE AREAS OF TIDAL FLOODING DURING THE MIDDAY
THURSDAY AND FRIDAY HIGH TIDE CYCLES. PLEASE CONTINUE TO MONITOR
THE LATEST FORECASTS FOR THIS SYSTEM FROM THE NATIONAL HURRICANE
CENTER.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

SPOTTER ACTIVATION IS NOT EXPECTED AT THIS TIME.

DEZ004-NJZ014-024>026-300030-
DELAWARE BEACHES-EASTERN MONMOUTH-ATLANTIC COASTAL CAPE MAY-
COASTAL ATLANTIC-COASTAL OCEAN-
821 PM EDT MON SEP 28 2015

...HIGH RIP CURRENT RISK IN EFFECT THROUGH TUESDAY EVENING...

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR SOUTHERN DELAWARE...CENTRAL
NEW JERSEY AND SOUTHERN NEW JERSEY.

.DAY ONE...TONIGHT.

PLEASE LISTEN TO NOAA WEATHER RADIO OR GO TO WEATHER.GOV ON THE
INTERNET FOR MORE INFORMATION ABOUT THE FOLLOWING HAZARDS.

   HIGH RIP CURRENT RISK.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY.

PLEASE LISTEN TO NOAA WEATHER RADIO OR GO TO WEATHER.GOV ON THE
INTERNET FOR MORE INFORMATION ABOUT THE FOLLOWING HAZARDS.

   HIGH RIP CURRENT RISK.

THERE IS AN ELEVATED RISK FOR THE DEVELOPMENT OF DANGEROUS RIP
CURRENTS YET AGAIN ON WEDNESDAY.

MODERATE TO HEAVY RAINFALL TUESDAY NIGHT INTO WEDNESDAY MAY
RESULT IN LOCALIZED FLOODING IN AREAS OF POOR DRAINAGE.

TROPICAL DEPRESSION 11 IS FORECAST TO TRACK SOMEWHERE NORTHWARD OFF
THE MID-ATLANTIC COAST LATE IN THE WEEK. DEPENDING ON THE TRACK,
ANOTHER ROUND OF POTENTIALLY HEAVY RAINFALL MAY RESULT IN
ADDITIONAL FLOODING PROBLEMS LATE THIS WEEK OR THIS WEEKEND.
ADDITIONALLY, A STRONG ONSHORE FLOW IS EXPECTED TO DEVELOP AND
IS LIKELY TO CAUSE TIDAL FLOODING AND BEACH EROSION. PLEASE
CONTINUE TO MONITOR THE LATEST FORECASTS FOR THIS SYSTEM FROM THE
NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

SPOTTER ACTIVATION IS NOT EXPECTED AT THIS TIME.

ANZ430-431-450>455-300030-
DELAWARE BAY WATERS NORTH OF EAST POINT NJ TO SLAUGHTER BEACH DE-
DELAWARE BAY WATERS SOUTH OF EAST POINT NJ TO SLAUGHTER BEACH DE-
COASTAL WATERS FROM SANDY HOOK TO MANASQUAN INLET NJ OUT 20 NM-
COASTAL WATERS FROM MANASQUAN INLET TO LITTLE EGG INLET NJ OUT 20 NM-
COASTAL WATERS FROM LITTLE EGG INLET TO GREAT EGG INLET NJ OUT 20 NM-
COASTAL WATERS FROM GREAT EGG INLET TO CAPE MAY NJ OUT 20 NM-
COASTAL WATERS FROM CAPE MAY NJ TO CAPE HENLOPEN DE OUT 20 NM-
COASTAL WATERS FROM CAPE HENLOPEN TO FENWICK ISLAND DE OUT 20 NM-
821 PM EDT MON SEP 28 2015

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR ATLANTIC COASTAL WATERS AND
DELAWARE BAY WATERS.

.DAY ONE...TONIGHT.

WIDESPREAD HAZARDOUS WEATHER IS NOT EXPECTED AT THIS TIME.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY.

TROPICAL DEPRESSION 11 IS FORECAST TO TRACK SOMEWHERE NORTHWARD OFF
THE MID-ATLANTIC COAST LATE IN THE WEEK. NORTHEASTERLY GALE FORCE
WIND GUSTS AND SEAS OVER 8 FEET ARE POSSIBLE OVER THE ATLANTIC
COASTAL WATERS FROM THURSDAY THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT. PLEASE CONTINUE
TO MONITOR THE LATEST FORECASTS FOR THIS SYSTEM FROM THE NATIONAL
HURRICANE CENTER.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

SPOTTER ACTIVATION IS NOT EXPECTED AT THIS TIME.