Flash Flood Watch 5, NWS Twin Cities, MN

109 
WGUS63 KMPX 081226
FFAMPX

FLOOD WATCH
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TWIN CITIES/CHANHASSEN MN
726 AM CDT TUE SEP 8 2015

...HEAVY RAIN TO PERSIST IN PORTIONS OF SOUTHWEST WISCONSIN THIS
MORNING...

.HEAVY RAIN WILL CONTINUE IN PEPIN AND EAU CLAIRE COUNTIES THIS
MORNING. RAINFALL RATES OF 1 TO 2 INCHES PER HOUR HAVE BEEN NOTED
ON DOPPLER RADAR. WITH SATURATED SOILS FROM RECENT HEAVY
RAINFALL...ANY ADDITIONAL HEAVY RAIN LEAD TO FLASH FLOODING.

MNZ074>078-082>085-091>093-081330-
/O.CAN.KMPX.FF.A.0005.000000T0000Z-150908T1500Z/
/00000.0.ER.000000T0000Z.000000T0000Z.000000T0000Z.OO/
BROWN-NICOLLET-LE SUEUR-RICE-GOODHUE-WATONWAN-BLUE EARTH-WASECA-
STEELE-MARTIN-FARIBAULT-FREEBORN-
INCLUDING THE CITIES OF...NEW ULM...ST. PETER...LE SUEUR...
FARIBAULT...RED WING...ST. JAMES...MANKATO...WASECA...OWATONNA...
FAIRMONT...BLUE EARTH...ALBERT LEA
726 AM CDT TUE SEP 8 2015

...FLASH FLOOD WATCH IS CANCELLED FOR SOUTHERN MINNESOTA...

THE FLASH FLOOD WATCH FOR PORTIONS OF SOUTH CENTRAL MINNESOTA AND
SOUTHEAST MINNESOTA HAS BEEN CANCELLED. HEAVY RAINFALL HAS SHIFTED
OFF TO THE EAST AND IS NO LONGER EXPECTED FOR SOUTHERN MINNESOTA.
ANY HIGH WATERS WILL CONTINUE TO RECEDE...MAKING FLASH FLOODING NO
LONGER A THREAT.

$$

WIZ026-028-081500-
/O.CON.KMPX.FF.A.0005.000000T0000Z-150908T1500Z/
/00000.0.ER.000000T0000Z.000000T0000Z.000000T0000Z.OO/
PEPIN-EAU CLAIRE-
INCLUDING THE CITIES OF...DURAND...EAU CLAIRE
726 AM CDT TUE SEP 8 2015

...FLASH FLOOD WATCH REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 10 AM CDT THIS
MORNING...

THE FLASH FLOOD WATCH CONTINUES FOR

* A PORTION OF WEST CENTRAL WISCONSIN...INCLUDING THE FOLLOWING 
  EAU CLAIRE ...AND PEPIN. 

* UNTIL 10 AM CDT THIS MORNING

* HEAVY RAIN THIS MORNING COMBINED WITH HEAVY RAIN RECEIVED THE 
  PAST FEW DAYS MAY LEAD TO FLASH FLOODING. 

* DO NOT DRIVE THROUGH ANY AREAS OF STANDING WATER. TURN
  AROUND...DO NOT DROWN.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

A FLASH FLOOD WATCH MEANS THAT CONDITIONS MAY DEVELOP THAT LEAD
TO FLASH FLOODING. FLASH FLOODING IS A VERY DANGEROUS SITUATION.

YOU SHOULD MONITOR LATER FORECASTS AND BE PREPARED TO TAKE ACTION
SHOULD FLASH FLOOD WARNINGS BE ISSUED.

&&

$$

464 
WGUS63 KMPX 081355
FFAMPX

FLOOD WATCH
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TWIN CITIES/CHANHASSEN MN
855 AM CDT TUE SEP 8 2015

...HEAVY RAIN IS HEADED OUT...FLASH FLOOD THREAT ENDING...

.RAIN IS BEGINNING TO DIMINISH EARLY THIS MORNING AND ANY HIGH
WATER REMAINING SHOULD RECEDE QUICKLY.

WIZ026-028-081500-
/O.CAN.KMPX.FF.A.0005.000000T0000Z-150908T1500Z/
/00000.0.ER.000000T0000Z.000000T0000Z.000000T0000Z.OO/
PEPIN-EAU CLAIRE-
INCLUDING THE CITIES OF...DURAND...EAU CLAIRE
855 AM CDT TUE SEP 8 2015

...FLASH FLOOD WATCH IS CANCELLED...

THE FLASH FLOOD WATCH FOR A PORTION OF WEST CENTRAL WISCONSIN HAS
BEEN CANCELLED. HEAVY RAIN HAS PUSHED EAST AND DRY WEATHER IS
EXPECTED FOR THE REST OF THE DAY.

$$

BORGHOFF

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TWIN CITIES/CHANHASSEN MN
1028 PM CDT MON SEP 7 2015

.UPDATE...FOR 06Z AVIATION DISCUSSION BELOW

&&

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH TUESDAY)
ISSUED AT 338 PM CDT MON SEP 7 2015

RATHER CHALLENGING FORECAST IN THE SHORT TERM CONCERNING POPS AND
QPF. THERE WAS A SUBTLE DEWPOINT BOUNDARY IN PLACE ACROSS THE
SOUTHEASTERN PART OF THE FORECAST AREA THAT MATCHED UP WITH THE LOW
CLOUDS SEEN ON VISIBLE SATELLITE. HOWEVER...THE MAIN FRONTAL
BOUNDARY WAS TO THE SOUTH ACROSS IOWA...AND THIS IS EXPECTED TO BE
THE FOCUS FOR THE HEAVIER RAIN TONIGHT.

AN UPPER LEVEL LOW WAS LOCATED ALONG THE MANITOBA/SASKATCHEWAN
BORDER...WITH SOUTHWEST WINDS OVER THE MIDWEST. WEAK DISTURBANCES
WITHIN THIS SOUTHWEST FLOW WERE RESPONSIBLE FOR SOME LIGHT
SHOWER/THUNDER ACTIVITY ACROSS THE DAKOTAS AND WESTERN MN. THESE
STORM ARE QUITE ELEVATED...AND THE PRECIP IS HAVING TROUBLE TO MAKE
IT TO THE GROUND...BUT FEEL THAT A SMALL POP IS WARRANTED THROUGH
THE AFTERNOON. LATER TONIGHT HIRES MODELS BRING THE MAIN AREA OF
STORMS NEAR IA/MO AS MENTIONED EARLIER...BUT A NORTHERN AREA OF
PRECIP DEVELOPS AND PASSES THROUGH THE SOUTHEASTERN PORTION OF THE
FORECAST AREA BETWEEN 06-12Z TIME FRAME. HAVE INCREASES POPS
DURING THIS TIME FRAME GIVEN THE REMARKABLE AGREEMENT BETWEEN THE
HRRR/DEV AND LAST FEW FRAMES OF THE HOPWRF. CLOUDS TONIGHT WILL
KEEP OVERNIGHT LOWS ABOVE CLIMATOLOGY. ON TUESDAY HIGH PRESSURE
WILL BUILD IN WITH DRY WEATHER ANTICIPATED AND HIGHS IN THE 70S.

.LONG TERM...(TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY)
ISSUED AT 338 PM CDT MON SEP 7 2015

HIGH PRESSURE MOVING IN WILL BRING CLEARING SKIES MIDWEEK WITH
NORMAL TEMPERATURES. A WEAK CLIPPER OF SORTS WILL ROTATE ON THE
SOUTH SIDE OF BROAD TROUGHING OVER EASTERN NORTH AMERICA WEDNESDAY
NIGHT AND THURSDAY. THE 12Z ECMWF HAS BACKED OFF SIGNIFICANTLY ON
ITS MORE DEVELOPED NORTHERLY SOLUTION ACROSS NORTHERN MINNESOTA
AND HAS FALLEN IN LINE WITH THE REMAINING GUIDANCE KEEPING A
WEAK...ILL-DEFINED LOW JUST TO THE SOUTH. A FEW SHOWERS MAY
ACCOMPANY THIS FEATURE...BUT NOT THINKING TOO MANY LOCATIONS WILL
SEE MORE THAN A TENTH OF AN INCH.

A REINFORCING SHOT OF CANADIAN AIR WILL FOLLOW THAT SYSTEM
THURSDAY NIGHT AND FRIDAY. COULD SEE LOWS IN THE LOW 40S IN SOME
LOCATIONS OF CENTRAL MN AND WESTERN WI...DEPENDING ON WHERE THE
HIGH TRACKS.

THE HIGH WILL SETTLE DOWN THE MISSISSIPPI VALLEY FOR THE WEEKEND
AS A LOW CUTS OFF NEAR THE MID ATLANTIC. THIS SHOULD SLOW THE
PROGRESSION OF RIDGES AND TROUGHS A BIT...WITH RIDGING BUILDING IN
GRADUALLY THROUGH THE REST OF THE PERIOD. ANOTHER COLD FRONT MAY BE
KNOCKING ON THE DOOR BY EARLY NEXT WEEK...BUT THE LACK OF
SIGNIFICANT MOISTURE RETURN AHEAD OF IT COULD HAMPER MEANINGFUL
PRECIP DEVELOPMENT ALONG IT.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z TUESDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 1028 PM CDT MON SEP 7 2015

HI-RES MODELS ARE MORE INDICATIVE OF A SLIGHT NORTHWARD SHIFT IN
PRECIP OVERNIGHT. LOOKS AS IF SHOWERS AND ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS
MAY SNEAK AS FAR NORTH AS KRWF-KMSP-KRNH-KEAU OVERNIGHT AND EARLY
TUESDAY MORNING. HAVE INCLUDED A MENTION OF -SHRA AT THOSE SITES
BUT WILL HOLD OFF ON THE THUNDER MENTION AT THIS POINT. HAVE ALSO
BACKED OFF SLIGHTLY ON THE FOG MENTION AT KRNH AND KEAU GIVEN THE
INCREASED CLOUD COVER...BUT STILL COULD SEE MVFR CONDITIONS THERE.
WINDS WILL BE LIGHT AND VARIABLE OVERNIGHT...AND THEN INCREASE
FROM THE NORTHWEST ON TUESDAY WITH GUSTS TO BETWEEN 15 AND 20KTS
EXPECTED BY 18Z. SPEEDS THEN DECLINE TO AOB 5KTS FOR TUESDAY EVE
WITH CLEARING SKIES.

KMSP...
THE WINDOW OF POTENTIAL FOR LIGHT SHOWERS AT KMSP LOOKS TO BE
CENTERED BETWEEN 09Z AND 12Z...ALTHOUGH VSBYS ARE NOT EXPECTED TO
DIP BELOW 5SM. OTHERWISE BENIGN/VFR CONDITIONS ARE ANTICIPATED
THROUGH THE PERIOD WITH THE ONLY OTHER ITEM OF NOTE BEING THE WIND
GUSTS TO NEAR 20KTS TUESDAY AFTERNOON.

/OUTLOOK FOR KMSP/
WED...VFR. WIND SW 5-10 KTS.
THU...MAINLY VFR. CHC MVFR IN -SHRA/-TSRA EARLY. WIND WNW 5-10
KTS.
FRI...VFR. WIND NW 5-10 KTS.

&&

.MPX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MN...NONE.
WI...NONE.
&&

SHORT TERM...JRB
LONG TERM...BORGHOFF
AVIATION...LS

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TWIN CITIES/CHANHASSEN MN
200 PM CDT MON SEP 7 2015

MNZ069-070-074>078-082>085-091>093-WIZ015-016-023>028-081900-
SCOTT-DAKOTA-BROWN-NICOLLET-LE SUEUR-RICE-GOODHUE-WATONWAN-
BLUE EARTH-WASECA-STEELE-MARTIN-FARIBAULT-FREEBORN-BARRON-RUSK-
ST. CROIX-PIERCE-DUNN-PEPIN-CHIPPEWA-EAU CLAIRE-
200 PM CDT MON SEP 7 2015

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR PORTIONS OF EAST CENTRAL
MINNESOTA...SOUTH CENTRAL MINNESOTA...SOUTHEAST MINNESOTA...
NORTHWEST WISCONSIN AND WEST CENTRAL WISCONSIN.

.DAY ONE...THIS AFTERNOON AND TONIGHT

ISOLATED NON SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ARE POSSIBLE TONIGHT.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY

ISOLATED TO SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS ARE POSSIBLE WEDNESDAY NIGHT
INTO THURSDAY. SEVERE WEATHER IS NOT EXPECTED.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

SKYWARN SPOTTER ACTIVATION WILL NOT BE NEEDED.

MNZ041>045-047>068-073-WIZ014-081900-
DOUGLAS-TODD-MORRISON-MILLE LACS-KANABEC-STEVENS-POPE-STEARNS-
BENTON-SHERBURNE-ISANTI-CHISAGO-LAC QUI PARLE-SWIFT-CHIPPEWA-
KANDIYOHI-MEEKER-WRIGHT-HENNEPIN-ANOKA-RAMSEY-WASHINGTON-
YELLOW MEDICINE-RENVILLE-MCLEOD-SIBLEY-CARVER-REDWOOD-POLK-
200 PM CDT MON SEP 7 2015

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR PORTIONS OF CENTRAL
MINNESOTA...EAST CENTRAL MINNESOTA...SOUTHWEST MINNESOTA...WEST
CENTRAL MINNESOTA AND NORTHWEST WISCONSIN.

.DAY ONE...THIS AFTERNOON AND TONIGHT

NO HAZARDOUS WEATHER IS EXPECTED AT THIS TIME.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY

ISOLATED TO SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS ARE POSSIBLE WEDNESDAY NIGHT
INTO THURSDAY. SEVERE WEATHER IS NOT EXPECTED.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

SKYWARN SPOTTER ACTIVATION WILL NOT BE NEEDED.