Flash Flood Warning 43, NWS Indianapolis, IN

362 
WGUS73 KIND 270109
FFSIND

FLASH FLOOD STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE INDIANAPOLIS IN
909 PM EDT SUN JUL 26 2015

INC057-097-270330-
/O.CON.KIND.FF.W.0043.000000T0000Z-150727T0330Z/
/00000.0.ER.000000T0000Z.000000T0000Z.000000T0000Z.OO/
HAMILTON IN-MARION IN-
909 PM EDT SUN JUL 26 2015

...THE FLASH FLOOD WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 1130 PM EDT FOR
SOUTHERN HAMILTON AND NORTHEASTERN MARION COUNTIES...

AT 908 PM EDT...DOPPLER RADAR INDICATED THUNDERSTORMS PRODUCING HEAVY
RAIN ACROSS THE WARNED AREA.  FLASH FLOODING IS EXPECTED TO BEGIN
SHORTLY.

SOME LOCATIONS THAT WILL EXPERIENCE FLOODING INCLUDE...
INDIANAPOLIS...CARMEL...FISHERS...NOBLESVILLE...LAWRENCE...
WESTFIELD...CUMBERLAND...MERIDIAN HILLS...WARREN PARK...ROCKY
RIPPLE...WILLIAMS CREEK...SPRING HILL...CROWS NEST...NORTH CROWS
NEST...INDIANA STATE FAIRGROUNDS...CASTLETON...GEIST RESERVOIR...
BROAD RIPPLE AND MONUMENT CIRCLE.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

MOVE TO HIGHER GROUND NOW. ACT QUICKLY TO PROTECT YOUR LIFE.

BE ESPECIALLY CAUTIOUS AT NIGHT WHEN IT IS HARDER TO RECOGNIZE THE
DANGERS OF FLOODING.

TURN AROUND...DONT DROWN WHEN ENCOUNTERING FLOODED ROADS. MOST FLOOD
DEATHS OCCUR IN VEHICLES.

&&

LAT...LON 3987 8594 3987 8595 3976 8595 3977 8619
      4001 8620 4002 8594

$$

MMB/PUMA

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE INDIANAPOLIS IN
451 PM EDT SUN JUL 26 2015

.UPDATE...
AVIATION SECTIONS UPDATED

&&

.SYNOPSIS...
ISSUED AT 300 PM EDT SUN JUL 26 2015

AN OLD FRONT WILL KEEP CHANCES FOR RAIN AROUND INTO MONDAY.
OTHERWISE HOT AND HUMID CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE INTO MID WEEK. A
COLD FRONT WILL MOVE THROUGH ON WEDNESDAY BRINGING MORE RAIN CHANCES
BUT WILL ALSO BRING COOLER AND DRIER AIR BEHIND IT. SEASONABLE
CONDITIONS WILL THEN CONTINUE INTO THE WEEKEND.

&&

.NEAR TERM.../REST OF THIS AFTERNOON AND TONIGHT/
ISSUED AT 300 PM EDT SUN JUL 26 2015

SPC MESOANALYSIS SHOWS AN INSTABILITY MAXIMUM ACROSS THE AREA EARLY
THIS AFTERNOON. SCATTERED CONVECTION IS FORMING IN THIS AXIS THANKS
IN PART TO AN OLD FRONT IN THE AREA. MEANWHILE THE REMNANTS OF AN
AREA OF SHOWERS AND STORMS IS MOVING ACROSS ILLINOIS.

FEEL THAT WHEN THE UPPER FORCING THAT ORIGINALLY CREATED THE SHOWERS
AND STORMS ACROSS ILLINOIS REACHES THE INSTABILITY ACROSS OUR
AREA...COVERAGE OF CONVECTION WILL INCREASE. WILL CONTINUE WITH
CHANCE TO HIGH END CHANCE CATEGORY POPS THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF THE
AFTERNOON.

FORCING FOR CONVECTION WILL BE WEAKENING DURING THE EVENING AS THE
UPPER ENERGY PASSES OFF TO THE EAST. HOWEVER THE OLD FRONT WILL
STILL BE IN THE WESTERN PART OF THE AREA. WILL KEEP SLIGHT CHANCE
TO CHANCE POPS ALL NIGHT IN ALL BUT THE FAR EAST THROUGH THE NIGHT.

STUCK WITH A MODEL BLEND FOR TEMPERATURES.

&&

.SHORT TERM.../MONDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/
ISSUED AT 300 PM EDT SUN JUL 26 2015

FOCUS IS ON CHANCES OF RAIN THROUGH THE PERIOD. MODELS ARE CLOSE
ENOUGH THAT A BLEND WAS USED.

OLD FRONT WILL CONTINUE TO DECAY ACROSS THE WESTERN FORECAST AREA ON
MONDAY. UPPER RIDGE WILL BE TRYING TO BUILD IN AT THE SAME TIME. MID
LEVEL TEMPERATURES REMAIN JUST COOL ENOUGH THAT CANNOT RULE OUT SOME
CONVECTION. WENT WITH SLIGHT CHANCE POPS MOST AREAS...BUT DRY FAR
EAST /FARTHEST FROM THE OLD FRONT/.

UPPER HEIGHTS RISE MONDAY NIGHT INTO TUESDAY AND MID LEVELS WARM.
THIS PLUS LACK OF ANY SIGNIFICANT FORCING SHOULD STOP MOST
CONVECTION. DECIDED TO GO DRY MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY. HOWEVER
AM NOT COMPLETELY RULING OUT A FEW SHOWERS OR STORMS...BUT THE ODDS
ARE LOW ENOUGH TO LEAVE OUT OF THE FORECAST.

COLD FRONT WILL APPROACH THE AREA TUESDAY NIGHT BUT SHOULD REMAIN
FAR ENOUGH AWAY TO KEEP CONDITIONS DRY. UPPER HEIGHTS FALL WEDNESDAY
AND A COLD FRONT WILL MOVE IN. PLENTY OF MOISTURE WILL BE AROUND SO
WENT HIGH END CHANCE CATEGORY POPS ALL AREAS.

GENERALLY STAYED CLOSE TO MOS FOR TEMPERATURES. HOT AND HUMID
CONDITIONS WILL LEAD TO HEAT INDEX VALUES NEAR TO OVER 100 TUESDAY
AND WEDNESDAY.

&&

.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY/...

ISSUED AT 207 PM EDT SUN JUL 26 2015

A FRONTAL BOUNDARY DRAPED ACROSS THE REGION MAY ALLOW A FEW SHOWERS
AND THUNDERSTORMS TO CONTINUE WEDNESDAY NIGHT...AT THE BEGINNING OF
THIS PERIOD BEFORE HIGH PRESSURE OFFICIALLY TAKES CONTROL OVER THE
REGION ON THURSDAY WHERE IT WILL INFLUENCE THE AREA BACK TO DRIER
AND LESS HUMID CONDITIONS THROUGH EARLY NEXT WEEKEND. NEAR SEASONAL
TEMPERATURES SHOULD ROUND OUT THE REST OF THE UPCOMING WORK WEEK.

AFTER THIS EXTENDED PERIOD OF DRY WEATHER THURSDAY THROUGH
SATURDAY...RAIN CHANCES RETURN TO THE FORECAST FOR POSSIBLY THE
SECOND HALF OF NEXT WEEKEND AS ENSEMBLES STILL DEPICT A STRONGER
WAVE IN THE UPPER FLOW AND SURFACE FRONT DROPPING DOWN INTO OUR
NORTHERN COUNTIES. HAVE THUS INCLUDED A CHANCE OF STORMS THERE.

&&

.AVIATION /DISCUSSION FOR THE 262100Z IND TAF UPDATE/...

WITH RADAR SHOWING NOW DEVELOPMENT NEAR IND...HAVE PUSHED OFF THE
VCTS MENTION UNTIL AFT 22Z. STILL AN AXIS OF INSTABILITY CONTINUES
TO EXIST ALONG I-74...WHERE TSRA AND SHOWERS HAVE BEEN
DEVELOPING. WITH MAX HEATING AUGURING...MORE DEVELOPMENT IS
EXPECTED IN THE NEXT 1-3 HOURS. WILL UPDATE THE TAF WITH PRECISE
TIMING SHOULD A TSRA BECOME IMMINENT.

PREVIOUS DISCUSSION BELOW

/DISCUSSION FOR 261800Z TAF ISSUANCE/...

ISSUED AT 1250 PM EDT SUN JUL 26 2015

ALL SITES VFR WITH THE POTENTIAL TO DROP TO MVFR OR LOWER IN ANY
THUNDERSTORMS THROUGH 01Z THIS EVENING. AROUND MIDNIGHT MAINLY
THE OUTLYING SITES WILL DROP TO MVFR IN BR...THAN LIKELY IFR EARLY
MONDAY MORNING. KIND WILL LIKELY ONLY DROP TO MVFR AS PREDICTED BY
GUIDANCE...BUT DEPENDS ON IF ANY RAIN OCCURS HERE DURING THE DAY
AND HOW MUCH CLEARING WE HAVE LATE. IND COULD POSSIBLY DROP TO THE
IFR FLIGHT CATEGORY TOO GIVEN CONDITIONS THAT OCCURRED THIS
MORNING.

WITH A BOUNDARY DRAPED ACROSS CENTRAL INDIANA SERVING AS THE
FOCUS FOR THE REST OF TODAY... AND A WEAK TROUGH MOVING IN
ALOFT...EXPECT SCATTERED SHOWERS AND EVEN SOME ISOLATED STORMS FOR
THE REST OF THIS AFTERNOON BUT SETTLING DOWN AROUND DUSK. LEFT IN
MOST VCTS STARTING AT 20Z...BUT STARTED IT AT 18Z AT SITES SUCH AS
IND DUE TO RECENT ISOLATED POP-UP CONVECTIVE TRENDS.

LATER TONIGHT...PATCHY TO AREAS OF FOG EXPECTED TO DEVELOP ACROSS
THE AREA AS THE SURFACE REMAINS VERY MOIST WHETHER FROM A RECENT
RAIN AND/OR THE ENVIRONMENT ITSELF. SKIES BEGIN TO CLEAR OUT AND
WINDS ARE EXPECTED TO DECOUPLE BY LATE THIS EVENING. WENT WITH
DETERIORATING CONDITIONS FROM IFR TO MVFR TO EVEN IFR MOST SITES
EXCEPT FOR KIND FOR NOW...BUT IND NOT COMPLETELY RULED OUT OF
DROPPING BELOW MVFR.

&&

.IND WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

SYNOPSIS...50
NEAR TERM...50
SHORT TERM...50
LONG TERM....SMF
AVIATION...SMF

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE INDIANAPOLIS
425 PM EDT SUN JUL 26 2015

INZ021-028>031-035>049-051>057-060>065-067>072-272030-
CARROLL-WARREN-TIPPECANOE-CLINTON-HOWARD-FOUNTAIN-MONTGOMERY-BOONE-
TIPTON-HAMILTON-MADISON-DELAWARE-RANDOLPH-VERMILLION-PARKE-PUTNAM-
HENDRICKS-MARION-HANCOCK-HENRY-VIGO-CLAY-OWEN-MORGAN-JOHNSON-SHELBY-
RUSH-SULLIVAN-GREENE-MONROE-BROWN-BARTHOLOMEW-DECATUR-KNOX-DAVIESS-
MARTIN-LAWRENCE-JACKSON-JENNINGS-
INCLUDING THE CITIES OF...LAFAYETTE...FRANKFORT...KOKOMO...
CRAWFORDSVILLE...ANDERSON...MUNCIE...INDIANAPOLIS...TERRE HAUTE...
SHELBYVILLE...BLOOMINGTON...COLUMBUS...VINCENNES...BEDFORD...SEYMOUR
425 PM EDT SUN JUL 26 2015

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR CENTRAL INDIANA.

.DAY ONE...TONIGHT.

OUTLOOK: SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS ARE POSSIBLE TONIGHT. A FEW
THUNDERSTORMS MAY PRODUCE LIGHTNING...GUSTY WINDS AND HEAVY
RAINFALL. HOWEVER WE ARE NOT EXPECTING ANY OUTBREAKS OF SEVERE
WEATHER AT THIS TIME.

HAZARDS: CLOUD TO GROUND LIGHTNING...THUNDERSTORMS WITH GUSTY
WINDS.

TIMING: TONIGHT.

DISCUSSION: A WEAK COLD FRONT OVER CENTRAL INDIANA WILL DRIFT
SOUTH ACROSS OUR REGION.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY.

OUTLOOK: A FEW STORMS ARE POSSIBLE MONDAY AND SCATTERED STORMS ARE
EXPECTED WEDNESDAY. A FEW STORMS MAY BE STRONG...BUT WE ARE NOT
EXPECTING ANY SEVERE STORMS AT THIS TIME.

DISCUSSION: A WEAK FRONTAL SYSTEM WILL DISSIPATE ACROSS SOUTHERN
INDIANA MONDAY AND ANOTHER COLD FRONT WILL MOVE OUR WAY FOR WEDNESDAY.
MOSTLY DRY WEATHER WILL BE THE RULE TUESDAY AND AGAIN THURSDAY
THROUGH SATURDAY. IT WILL BE HOT AND HUMID THROUGH MIDWEEK AND
THEN SLIGHTLY COOLER AFTER WEDNESDAY.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

SPOTTER ACTIVATION IS NOT ANTICIPATED.

&&

MORE INFORMATION...ALONG WITH OTHER WEATHER...HYDROLOGICAL AND
CLIMATE INFORMATION CAN BE FOUND...AT HTTP://WEATHER.GOV/IND (ALL
LOWERCASE)

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE INDIANAPOLIS IN
631 PM EDT SUN JUL 26 2015

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0630 PM     HEAVY RAIN       1 S CASTLETON           39.89N  86.05W
07/26/2015  M1.45 INCH       MARION             IN   BROADCAST MEDIA

&&

JP