Flash Flood Warning 62, NWS Lincoln, IL

588 
WGUS73 KILX 191330
FFSILX

FLASH FLOOD STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LINCOLN IL
830 AM CDT SUN JUL 19 2015

ILC137-191445-
/O.CON.KILX.FF.W.0062.000000T0000Z-150719T1445Z/
/00000.0.ER.000000T0000Z.000000T0000Z.000000T0000Z.OO/
MORGAN-
830 AM CDT SUN JUL 19 2015

...THE FLASH FLOOD WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 945 AM CDT FOR 
WESTERN MORGAN COUNTY...

AT 828 AM CDT...DOPPLER RADAR INDICATED THUNDERSTORMS PRODUCING 
HEAVY RAIN ACROSS THE WARNED AREA. RADAR HAS ESTIMATED THAT 2 TO 4 
INCHES OF RAIN HAS OCCURRED ALONG MOST OF THE BORDER WITH SCOTT 
COUNTY...EXTENDING AS FAR NORTHWEST AS MEREDOSIAL AND SOUTH AS 
MURRAYVILLE. WHILE THE RAIN HAS COME TO AN END FOR NOW...MORE STORMS 
WILL BE MOVING IN FROM NORTHEAST MISSOURI LATER THIS MORNING. 

SOME LOCATIONS THAT WILL EXPERIENCE FLOODING INCLUDE...
MEREDOSIA...MURRAYVILLE...CHAPIN...WOODSON...CONCORD AND LYNNVILLE. 

THIS INCLUDES THE FOLLOWING STREAMS AND DRAINAGES...WILLOW BRANCH...
BRUSHY FORK...EAGLE RUN...MUD CREEK...BIG BRANCH...LITTLE APPLE
CREEK...WILLOW CREEK...INDIAN CREEK...SPOON CREEK...WALNUT CREEK...
MOONEY BRANCH...LITTLE SANDY CREEK...SPRING RUN...ILLINOIS RIVER...
BIG SANDY CREEK...MAUVAISE TERRE CREEK...COON RUN...WOLF RUN AND LICK
CREEK.

THIS INCLUDES INTERSTATE 72 BETWEEN MILE MARKERS 58 AND 61.
 
PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

DO NOT ENTER OR CROSS FLOWING WATER OR WATER OF UNKNOWN DEPTH. 

PLEASE REPORT FLOODING TO YOUR LOCAL LAW ENFORCEMENT AGENCY WHEN YOU
CAN DO SO SAFELY.

&&

LAT...LON 3983 9057 3987 9058 3987 9039 3968 9028
      3952 9007 3952 9030 3963 9030 3964 9034
      3967 9034 3967 9037 3975 9037 3975 9048
      3979 9048 3979 9059

$$
GEELHART

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LINCOLN IL
258 AM CDT SUN JUL 19 2015

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY)
ISSUED AT 258 AM CDT SUN JUL 19 2015

WEAK BOUNDARY STILL AT THE SFC INTERACTING WITH A SHORT WAVE AND
KICKING OFF THUNDERSTORMS THIS MORNING IN NORTHERN MO AND
SOUTHWESTERN IL.  500 MB HIGH SITTING OVER THE WESTERN GULF COAST
AND GENERAL TROF FROM THE NRN PLAINS BACK INTO THE SWRN CONUS.  WEAK
BOUNDARIES AND OLD OUTFLOWS ALL OVER THE MAP FURTHER PROVIDING FOCUS
FOR THE SHORTWAVES FROM IL WEST TO THE CENTRAL PLAINS.  KEEPING
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS IN THE FORECAST THROUGHOUT THE DAY AS A
RESULT AND INTO THE EVENING HOURS. PLENTY OF CAPE AND PW IN THE
CURRENT HOT AND HUMID AIRMASS, EXPECTING HEAVY RAINS AND WIND THE
PRIMARY THREATS WITH ANY ORGANIZED STORMS, WITH A SECOND ROUND OF
THUNDER ACTIVITY POSSIBLE WITH DESTABILIZATION THIS AFTERNOON.  AS A
RESULT, SPC HAS A SLIGHT RISK FOR SEVERE WEATHER FOR DAY ONE-- THIS
MORNING AND POTENTIAL DEVELOPMENT THIS AFTERNOON FOR ROUND TWO.

&&

.LONG TERM...(TONIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY)
ISSUED AT 258 AM CDT SUN JUL 19 2015

TONIGHT COOLER AS A FRONT SETTLES INTO THE REGION AND SLIGHTLY
COOLER AIR MOVES INTO THE NRN HALF OF THE STATE. MODELS CONTINUE TO
PUSH SHORTWAVES OUT AND ACROSS THE STATE KEEPING THE CHANCE SHOWERS
AND THUNDERSTORMS AROUND THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT UNTIL THE COLD FRONT
FINALLY PUSHES THROUGH THE REGION MON NIGHT/TUES MORNING WITH THE
UPPER TROF DIGGING IN OVER THE EASTERN HALF OF THE CONUS.

MAIN ISSUES WITH THE FORECAST ARE THE GENERAL LACK OF DETAIL IN THE
MODELS AS TO TIMING OF THE STORMS AND ACTIVITY ALONG THE BOUNDARY.
GFS TO ECMWF TO NAM A LACK OF CONSISTENCY ON POSITIONING THE
BOUNDARY, AND SUBSEQUENTLY THE BEST CHANCES FOR PRECIP.  SOME
AGREEMENT IS STARTING TO TAKE SHAPE WITH PUSHING THE BOUNDARY
FURTHER TO THE SOUTH ON TUESDAY EARLY AND KEEPING THE CHANCE POPS
SOUTH OF I-70 AS A RESULT.  TREND IS GOING DRIER FOR TUESDAY
AFTERNOON AND NIGHT BUT WILL OF COURSE BE CONTINGENT ON THE LOCATION
OF THE BOUNDARY.  WED DRY FOR NOW AND COOLER TEMPS...AND THURSDAY
WOULD LOOK SIMILAR EXCEPT FOR A WAVE DIVING INTO THE MID MISS RIVER
VALLEY JUST TO THE SW AND BRINGING SOME SLIGHT/CHC POPS INTO THE SW
WITH SOME QUESTION AS TO HOW FAR NORTH THAT PRECIP WILL REACH.  DRY
TREND CONTINUES WITH WARMER AIR ADVECTING IN AFTER MID WEEK, WITH
THE HIGHEST TEMPS IN THE FORECAST NEXT WEEKEND AGAIN.  WITH THE WARM
TEMPS, A RIDGE BUILDS IN THE DESERT SW AND ILLINOIS HAS VERY LITTLE
IN THE WAY OF STEERING FLOW AND MODELS ARE A BIT MORE SCATTERED WITH
WEAK WAVES.  SLIGHT CHANCES PERMEATE THE SUPERBLEND AT THIS POINT.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z SUNDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 1205 PM CDT SUN JUL 19 2015

VFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL AT ALL TAF SITES OVERNIGHT AND THROUGH
TOMORROW. THUNDERSTORMS HAVE ALREADY STARTED AND SHOULD CONTINUE
TO DEVELOP IN NORTHERN MO AND THEN MOVE EAST TOWARD THE AREA.
CONVECTION FROM NORTHERN MO COULD EFFECT PIA AND THEN INTO BMI
AROUND 10Z. BUT AS THE COLD FRONT MOVES IN FROM THE
NORTH...ADDITIONAL THUNDERSTORMS ARE POSSIBLE IN THE AREA. SO WILL
KEEP VCTS AT PIA AND BMI FOR MOST OF THE DAY AND THEN END THEM
ONCE THE COLD FRONT PUSHES FAR ENOUGH SOUTH AROUND 00Z.
SPI/DEC/CMI COULD SEE VCTS THE WHOLE TIME AS THERE COULD BE
SEVERAL ROUNDS OF THUNDERSTORMS MOVE INTO THE AREA NOW AND THEN
LATER TONIGHT...AND THEN AGAIN WITH THE FRONT THIS AFTERNOON AND
INTO THE EVENING HOURS. THERE WILL BE BREAKS...BUT TOO UNCLEAR TO
TRY TO TIME IN THE TAFS. WINDS WILL BE SOUTHWEST THROUGH THE
PERIOD FOR SPI/DEC/CMI. PIA AND BMI WILL SEE SOUTHWEST WINDS EARLY
AND THEN WESTERLY AND THEN BECOMING NORTHWESTERLY AS THE FRONT
MOVES THROUGH...THEN VARIABLE AFTER THE FRONT MOVES THROUGH.

&&

.ILX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

SHORT TERM...HJS
LONG TERM...HJS
AVIATION...AUTEN

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LINCOLN IL
318 PM CDT SAT JUL 18 2015

ILZ027>031-036>038-040>053-191100-
CASS-CHAMPAIGN-CHRISTIAN-DE WITT-FULTON-KNOX-LOGAN-MACON-MARSHALL-
MASON-MCLEAN-MENARD-MORGAN-PEORIA-PIATT-SANGAMON-SCHUYLER-SCOTT-
STARK-TAZEWELL-VERMILION-WOODFORD-
318 PM CDT SAT JUL 18 2015

...HEAT ADVISORY IN EFFECT UNTIL 7 PM CDT THIS EVENING...

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR PORTIONS OF CENTRAL
ILLINOIS...EAST CENTRAL ILLINOIS...NORTH CENTRAL ILLINOIS AND
WEST CENTRAL ILLINOIS.

.DAY ONE...TONIGHT

HEAT INDEX VALUES OF AROUND 105 DEGREES ARE EXPECTED THROUGH
EARLY THIS EVENING.

AN APPROACHING COLD FRONT WILL TRIGGER SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS
TONIGHT. SOME OF THE STORMS COULD BECOME SEVERE...WITH THE
PRIMARY THREATS BEING DAMAGING WIND GUSTS AND TORRENTIAL RAINFALL.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY

SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS WILL CONTINUE INTO SUNDAY. WIDESPREAD
SEVERE WEATHER IS NOT EXPECTED...HOWEVER A FEW OF THE STORMS COULD
PRODUCE GUSTY WINDS...SMALL HAIL...AND TORRENTIAL DOWNPOURS.

THUNDERSTORM CHANCES WILL LINGER SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH
MONDAY NIGHT...HOWEVER WIDESPREAD SEVERE WEATHER IS NOT EXPECTED.

MODERATE TO MAJOR FLOODING WILL CONTINUE ON THE ILLINOIS
RIVER...BUT FLOODING ALONG THE SPOON RIVER BASIN SHOULD SUBSIDE
ON SUNDAY.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

SPOTTER ACTIVATION MAY BE NEEDED TONIGHT.

ILZ054>057-061>063-066>068-071>073-191100-
CLARK-CLAY-COLES-CRAWFORD-CUMBERLAND-DOUGLAS-EDGAR-EFFINGHAM-
JASPER-LAWRENCE-MOULTRIE-RICHLAND-SHELBY-
318 PM CDT SAT JUL 18 2015

...HEAT ADVISORY IN EFFECT UNTIL 7 PM CDT THIS EVENING...

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR PORTIONS OF CENTRAL
ILLINOIS...EAST CENTRAL ILLINOIS...SOUTH CENTRAL ILLINOIS AND
SOUTHEAST ILLINOIS.

.DAY ONE...TONIGHT

HEAT INDEX VALUES OF AROUND 105 DEGREES ARE EXPECTED THROUGH
EARLY THIS EVENING.

WIDELY SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE POSSIBLE AFTER
MIDNIGHT...HOWEVER SEVERE WEATHER IS NOT EXPECTED.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY

AN APPROACHING COLD FRONT WILL TRIGGER SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS
ON SUNDAY. SOME OF THE STORMS COULD BECOME SEVERE DURING THE
AFTERNOON AND EVENING...WITH THE PRIMARY THREATS BEING DAMAGING
WIND GUSTS...LARGE HAIL...AND TORRENTIAL RAINFALL.

THUNDERSTORM CHANCES WILL LINGER SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH
TUESDAY...HOWEVER WIDESPREAD SEVERE WEATHER IS NOT EXPECTED.

FLOODING WILL CONTINUE ALONG THE WABASH RIVER THROUGH THE ENTIRE
PERIOD.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

SPOTTER ACTIVATION IS NOT ANTICIPATED THROUGH TONIGHT.

BARNES