Flash Flood Warning 34, NWS Lincoln, IL

819 
WGUS73 KILX 221135
FFSILX

FLASH FLOOD STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LINCOLN IL
635 AM CDT MON JUN 22 2015

ILC033-049-079-221145-
/O.EXP.KILX.FF.W.0034.000000T0000Z-150622T1145Z/
/00000.0.ER.000000T0000Z.000000T0000Z.000000T0000Z.OO/
CRAWFORD-EFFINGHAM-JASPER-
635 AM CDT MON JUN 22 2015

...THE FLASH FLOOD WARNING FOR CRAWFORD...NORTHERN EFFINGHAM AND
JASPER COUNTIES WILL EXPIRE AT 645 AM CDT...

THE HEAVY RAIN HAS ENDED...AND FLOODING IS NO LONGER EXPECTED TO POSE
A THREAT.

LAT...LON 3889 8754 3885 8754 3885 8793 3888 8795
      3911 8881 3921 8880 3921 8847 3917 8847
      3917 8766 3916 8764 3914 8766 3912 8763
      3911 8765 3906 8757 3900 8758 3899 8756
      3899 8758 3895 8751

$$

BAK

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LINCOLN IL
1159 PM CDT SUN JUN 21 2015

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 900 PM CDT SUN JUN 21 2015

TREND FOR THE REST OF THE NIGHT IS FOR DRY CONDITIONS UNTIL LATE
TONIGHT. HRRR AND RAP OUTPUT BOTH SHOW INCREASING CHANCES AFTER
09Z. THERE IS SOME INDICATION OF A LINE OF SHOWERS DEVELOPING NEAR
SPI AND EXTENDING IN A NW TO SE LINE AS THEY MOVE NORTHEAST ACROSS
OUR AREA. THE SHOWERS APPEAR TO BE SPOTTY, AND MOST AREAS SHOULD
REMAIN DRY. WE REDUCED POPS THIS EVENING IN ALL AREAS, AND KEPT A
GRADUAL INCREASE OF POPS AFTER MIDNIGHT.

THE HRRR IS ADVERTISING A STRONG MCS ROLLING ACROSS NORTHERN IOWA
TONIGHT AND REACHING NORTHERN IL BETWEEN 12Z-14Z. THE RAP SHOWS
INCREASE COVERAGE OF STORMS IN OUR WESTERN CWA, WITH A WAVE
APPROACHING FROM THE NW LATE TONIGHT, BUT NOT NEARLY AS VIGOROUS
AS THE HRRR. THE HRRR TRACK SHOWS THE STRONGEST STORMS SHOULD
REMAIN NORTH OF OUR COUNTIES TOMORROW MORNING, BUT SPC HAS KEPT US
IN A MARGINAL RISK FOR SEVERE STORMS (5%) NORTH OF PEORIA.

SATELLITE IMAGES SHOW A THIN LAYER OF HIGH CLOUDS WILL LIKELY
COVER ALL BUT THE NORTHERN COUNTIES FOR MUCH OF THE NIGHT. THE
INSULATING EFFECT OF THE CLOUDS AND HIGH SURFACE DEWPOINTS SHOULD
HELP TO KEEP LOWS IN THE UPPER 60S TO LOW 70S. LIGHT FOG COULD
DEVELOP IN LOW LYING AREAS, AS SURFACE WINDS REMAIN LIGHT THE REST
OF THE NIGHT.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 259 PM CDT SUN JUN 21 2015

MCS WITH SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS OVER CENTRAL MO AND DEVELOPING
EASTWARD INTO SW HALF OF IL WITH THUNDERSTORMS AS FAR EAST AS
EASTERN SHELBY COUNTY. DIURNALLY INDUCED INSTABILITY AS CAPES
RISING INTO THE 1500-3000 J/KG RANGE AND HIGHEST OVER OVER SW CWA
AT MID AFTERNOON. CAPES RISE TO 4000 J/KG AND HIGHER OVER CENTRAL
AND WESTERN MO AND 4000-6000 J/KG FURTHER WEST OVER KS. SOME CIN
RESTRICTING CONVECTION DEVELOPMENT OVER SOUTHEAST IL BUT THAT IS
FADING AND EXPECT SCATTERED CONVECTION TO DEVELOP THERE AS WELL
LATE THIS AFTERNOON/EARLY EVENING. AN OLD OUTFLOW BOUNDARY EXTENDS
FROM FAR NORTHERN MO INTO FAR SW IL CLOSER TO MS RIVER VALLEY.
EXPECT THE BOUNDARY TO GRADUALLY SHIFT BACK NORTHWARD LATE THIS
AFTERNOON AND INTO TONIGHT ACROSS CENTRAL AND EVENTUALLY NORTHERN
IL WITH UPPER LEVEL SHORT WAVE CURRENT TRACKING EAST SOUTHEAST
ACROSS THE NORTHERN PLAINS. HAVE LIKELY CHANCES OF SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS OVER SW CWA THIS AFTERNOON INTO EARLY EVENING AND
THEN TAPERS TO SLIGHT CHANCES FROM I-74 NE. OUR NE CWA FROM I-74
NE TO SEE THERE BEST CHANCES OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS AFTER
SUNSET TONIGHT. SPC CONTINUES SLIGHT CHANCE OF SEVERE STORMS FROM
RUSHVILLE TO TERRE HAUTE SW REST OF THIS AFTERNOON AND INTO THIS
EVENING WHILE ENHANCED RISK IS FURTHER SW OF CWA OVER CENTRAL MO
INTO SW IL WHERE AIRMASS IS MORE UNSTABLE. LOCALLY HEAVE RAIN
POSSIBLE SW CWA AS WELL WITH PRECIPITABLE WATER VALUES RANGING
FROM 1.5-2 INCHES WHILE AROUND 2 INCHES OVER PARTS OF CENTRAL MO.
MUGGY LOWS TONIGHT IN THE LOWER 70S WITH A FEW UPPER 60S NE OF
I-74.

.LONG TERM...(MONDAY THROUGH SUNDAY)
ISSUED AT 259 PM CDT SUN JUN 21 2015

LOOKS LIKE WE WILL GET A BRIEF BREAK FROM THE CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND
STORMS MONDAY AS THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY WILL LIFT BACK NORTH DURING
THE MORNING AND THEN BE ACROSS NORTHERN IL OR EVEN SOUTHERN WI. BUT
WE WILL KEEP A SMALL CHANCE OF PCPN IN MONDAY IN THE EXTREME NORTH
PARTS OF THE CWA. UNFORTUNATELY THIS WILL NOT LAST LONG AS ANOTHER
COLD FRONT WILL DROP THROUGH THE AREA MONDAY NIGHT WITH MORE SHOWERS
AND THUNDERSTORMS. THIS FRONT WILL LIKELY NOT DROP TOO FAR AND
BECOME QUASI-STATIONARY OVER THE SOUTHERN HALF OF ILLINOIS FOR
TUESDAY AND TUESDAY NIGHT. SO PCPN CHANCES WILL CONTINUE IN THE
SOUTHEAST FOR TUE AND THEN OVER THE WHOLE AREA FOR TUE NIGHT AS
ANOTHER POSSIBLE MCS DEVELOPS WEST OF THE AREA AND ROLLS INTO IL FOR
TUE NIGHT INTO WED. ANY OUTFLOW BOUNDARY WILL BE OVER THE AREA WED
NIGHT AND THUR THUS CONTINUING THE CHANCES OF SHOWERS AND STORMS
THROUGH THUR. FOR THE REMAINDER OF THE WEEK AND INTO THE WEEKEND...A
FRONTAL BOUNDARY WILL REMAIN OVER THE AREA...WHICH WILL KEEP THE
CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND STORMS IN THE AREA THROUGH THE END OF THE WEEK
AND INTO THE WEEKEND.

TEMPS WILL BE QUITE WARM THROUGH THUR AND WITH DEWPOINTS IN THE
LOWER 70S HEAT INDEX VALUES WILL GET INTO THE 95 TO 100 RANGE ON
MONDAY AND WED. THIS WORTH NOTING...BUT NOT ENOUGH FOR A HEAT
ADVISORY. A COLD FRONT WILL SLIDE THROUGH THE AREA LATER IN THE WEEK
AND THEN SHOULD BRING COOLER TEMPS TO THE REGION FOR FRIDAY THROUGH
SUNDAY.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z MONDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 1159 PM CDT SUN JUN 21 2015

THE 03Z/10PM SURFACE ANALYSIS SHOWS THE STATIONARY FRONT EXTENDING
ACROSS SOUTHERN IL. STRONG STORMS HAVE JUST RECENTLY DEVELOPED NORTH
OF THE BOUNDARY IN OUR COUNTIES ALONG AND SOUTH OF I-70. THE
AIRMASS NORTH OF THE FRONT CONTAINS A HIGH MOISTURE CONTENT, WITH
DEWPOINTS IN THE LOWER 70S ALL THE WAY NORTH TO LACON. DEWPOINT
DEPRESSIONS ARE DOWN TO 1-3F FOR THE TAF SITES. DESPITE THE HIGH
CLOUD COVER, SOME LIGHT MVFR FOG WILL BE POSSIBLE LATER TONIGHT.
WE WENT WITH A PREVAILING MVFR VIS FROM 11-14Z.

SCATTERED SHOWERS ARE INDICATED TO ERUPT LATER TONIGHT IN A WEST
TO EAST LINE ACROSS OUR SOUTHERN COUNTIES, INCLUDING SPI. THE HRRR
SHOWS THOSE SHOWERS/STORMS LIFTING TO THE NORTHEAST OVERNIGHT, BUT
DISSIPATING AS THE REACH TOWARD CMI. WE INCLUDED VCSH FOR ALL BUT
PIA FOR LATE TONIGHT FOR NOW.

A BREAK IN THE PRECIP IS EXPECTED DURING THE DAY TOMORROW, WITH
ALL SITES SEEING STORM CHANCES INCREASE TOMORROW EVENING. WE
INCLUDED VCTS AT ALL TAF SITES AFTER 00Z.

SOUTHWEST WINDS WILL INCREASE TO 15G25KT ACROSS THE BOARD
TOMORROW, AND SUSTAIN IN THE 10-15KT RANGE INTO THE EVENING.

&&

.ILX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

UPDATE...SHIMON
SHORT TERM...07
LONG TERM...AUTEN
AVIATION...SHIMON

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LINCOLN IL
310 PM CDT SUN JUN 21 2015

ILZ027>031-036>038-041>046-055-057-221100-
CHAMPAIGN-DE WITT-DOUGLAS-EDGAR-FULTON-KNOX-LOGAN-MARSHALL-MASON-
MCLEAN-PEORIA-PIATT-STARK-TAZEWELL-VERMILION-WOODFORD-
310 PM CDT SUN JUN 21 2015

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR PORTIONS OF CENTRAL
ILLINOIS...EAST CENTRAL ILLINOIS...NORTH CENTRAL ILLINOIS AND
WEST CENTRAL ILLINOIS.

.DAY ONE...TONIGHT

ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS ARE POSSIBLE LATER THIS AFTERNOON...BUT
BETTER CHANCES OF THUNDERSTORMS WILL HOLD OFF UNTIL AFTER DARK
TONIGHT. SEVERE STORMS ARE NOT ANTICIPATED AT THIS TIME.

MODERATE FLOODING...WITH MAJOR FLOODING AT HAVANA...WILL CONTINUE
ALONG THE ILLINOIS RIVER. FLOODING IS FORECAST TO END LATE THIS
AFTERNOON ON THE SANGAMON RIVER NEAR MONTICELLO.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY

PERIODIC THUNDERSTORM CHANCES ARE EXPECTED FOR MUCH OF THE
PERIOD. THERE IS A SLIGHT CHANCE OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS LATER
MONDAY AFTERNOON INTO MONDAY EVENING FOR DAMAGING WINDS...LARGE
HAIL AND POSSIBLE TORNADOES. FREQUENT LIGHTNING AND HEAVY RAINS
MAY ALSO OCCUR WITH THESE STORMS.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

SPOTTER ACTIVATION IS NOT ANTICIPATED THROUGH TONIGHT.

ILZ040-047>054-056-061-221100-
CASS-CHRISTIAN-COLES-MACON-MENARD-MORGAN-MOULTRIE-SANGAMON-
SCHUYLER-SCOTT-SHELBY-
310 PM CDT SUN JUN 21 2015

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR PORTIONS OF CENTRAL
ILLINOIS...EAST CENTRAL ILLINOIS AND WEST CENTRAL ILLINOIS.

.DAY ONE...TONIGHT

SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED DURING THE AFTERNOON AND
BECOME MORE WIDELY SCATTERED AFTER DARK. A FEW STORMS MAY BECOME
STRONG TO SEVERE LATE THIS AFTERNOON AND INTO THIS EVENING.
DAMAGING WIND GUSTS AND LARGE HAIL ARE THE PRIMARY THREATS ALONG
WITH AN ISOLATED TORNADO. FREQUENT LIGHTNING AND HEAVY RAINS ARE
ALSO POSSIBLE.

MODERATE FLOODING...WITH MAJOR FLOODING AT HAVANA...WILL CONTINUE
ALONG THE ILLINOIS RIVER.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY

PERIODIC THUNDERSTORM CHANCES ARE EXPECTED FOR MUCH OF THE
PERIOD. THERE IS A SLIGHT CHANCE OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS LATER
MONDAY AFTERNOON INTO MONDAY EVENING WITH DAMAGING WINDS...LARGE
HAIL AND A FEW TORNADOES POSSIBLE. FREQUENT LIGHTNING AND HEAVY
RAINS MAY ALSO OCCUR WITH THESE STORMS.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

SPOTTER ACTIVATION MAY BE NEEDED THROUGH 9 PM TODAY.

ILZ062-063-066>068-071>073-221100-
CLARK-CLAY-CRAWFORD-CUMBERLAND-EFFINGHAM-JASPER-LAWRENCE-RICHLAND-
310 PM CDT SUN JUN 21 2015

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR PORTIONS OF EAST CENTRAL
ILLINOIS...SOUTH CENTRAL ILLINOIS AND SOUTHEAST ILLINOIS.

.DAY ONE...TONIGHT

SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED TO DEVELOP LATE THIS AFTERNOON
AND EARLY EVENING AND CONTINUE TONIGHT. A FEW STORMS MAY BECOME
SEVERE BY THIS EVENING. DAMAGING WIND GUSTS AND LARGE HAIL ARE THE
PRIMARY THREATS WITH AN ISOLATED TORNADO POSSIBLE. FREQUENT
LIGHTNING AND HEAVY RAINS ARE ALSO POSSIBLE.

MINOR FLOODING WILL CONTINUE ALONG THE WABASH...LITTLE
WABASH...AND EMBARRAS BASINS FOR THE NEXT SEVERAL DAYS.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY

PERIODIC THUNDERSTORM CHANCES ARE EXPECTED FOR MUCH OF THE
PERIOD. STRONG THUNDERSTORMS ARE POSSIBLE LATER MONDAY AFTERNOON
INTO MONDAY EVENING WITH GUSTY WINDS...HAIL...HEAVY RAINS AND
FREQUENT LIGHTNING POSSIBLE ESPECIALLY NORTH OF I-70.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

SPOTTER ACTIVATION MAY BE REQUIRED BETWEEN 5 AND 11 PM TODAY.

07

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LINCOLN IL
849 PM CDT SUN JUN 21 2015

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0630 PM     HEAVY RAIN       4 NNE PARIS             39.67N 87.66W
06/21/2015  M2.19 INCH       EDGAR              IL   COCORAHS

            RAIN FELL IN 3 HOURS

&&

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