Wind Advisory 9, NWS Honolulu, HI

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE HONOLULU HI
337 AM HST SUN FEB 15 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
WINDS ARE GRADUALLY WEAKENING AND TURNING TO THE NORTHWEST AND NORTH
TODAY IN THE WAKE OF A COLD FRONT PASSAGE. WINDS WILL BECOME
EASTERLY BY MONDAY. COOLER AND DRIER CONDITIONS ARE NOW ESTABLISHING
ACROSS THE ALOHA STATE...WITH A GENERALLY BENIGN WEATHER PATTERN
PREVAILING THROUGH THE MIDDLE OF THE WEEK. ANOTHER COLD FRONT WILL
APPROACH THE ISLANDS LATE THURSDAY AND INTO FRIDAY.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
LATEST INFRARED SATELLITE IMAGERY SHOWS A DECAYING COLD FRONT
BOUNDARY MOVING JUST TO THE SE OF THE BIG ISLAND...PUSHING FURTHER
AWAY FROM THE ISLANDS AS THE PARENT LOW FAR NNE OF THE MAIN HAWAIIAN
ISLANDS TREKS E ACROSS THE CENTRAL PACIFIC. AT 315 AM...RADAR
IMAGERY SHOWS LITTLE OR NO RAIN ACTIVITY OVER THE SMALLER ISLANDS...
AND A FEW REMNANT SHOWERS LINGERING OVER THE BIG ISLAND.

THE ROBUST S/SW WINDS ARE FINALLY SUBSIDING...WITH FLOW GRADUALLY
VEERING TO THE NW AND N TODAY. ALL THE WIND ADVISORIES AND HIGH
WIND WARNINGS HAVE BEEN DISCONTINUED...EXCEPT THE BIG ISLAND SUMMITS
WHERE ADVISORY LEVEL WINDS WILL CONTINUE THROUGH EARLY THIS
EVENING.

COLD AIR ADVECTION IN THE WAKE OF THE FROPA WILL BRING A DRIER AND
COOLER AIRMASS INTO THE AREA TODAY AND TONIGHT. FOR THE FIRST HALF
OF THE WORK WEEK...THE GLOBAL MODELS SHOW FAIR AGREEMENT IN KEEPING
A GENERALLY BENIGN WEATHER PATTERN OVER THE ISLANDS WITH PREVAILING
MODERATE E FLOW AND A FEW PASSING SHOWERS. THEN FOR THE SECOND HALF
OF THE WORK WEEK...MODEL SOLUTIONS SHOW ANOTHER COLD FRONT BOUNDARY
APPROACHING THE ISLANDS FROM THE NW. DESPITE SOME DIFFERENCES
BETWEEN GFS AND ECMWF REGARDING TIMING AND INTENSITY OF THIS
FEATURE...THE CONSENSUS IS GOOD ENOUGH TO INCORPORATE THIS SCENARIO
INTO THE LONG TERM FORECAST. THUS...ANOTHER FROPA EVENT IS LIKELY
FOR THE LATE THU INTO EARLY FRI TIMEFRAME...WITH INCREASING SHOWERS
ACROSS THE ISLANDS AND VEERING WINDS AHEAD OF THE FRONT.

&&

.AVIATION...
DRIER AND CLEARER CONDITIONS ARE SWEEPING THE STATE FROM THE
NORTHWEST AS A COLD FRONT MOVES SOUTHEAST OF THE BIG ISLAND. AIRMET
SIERRA FOR MOUNTAIN OBSCURATION HAS BEEN CANCELLED. WINDS HAVE
DECREASED AS WELL...PROMPTING CANCELLATION OF AIRMET TANGO FOR LOW
LEVEL MECHANICAL TURBULENCE. VFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL AT THE
TERMINALS THROUGH THE REST OF THE NIGHT AND THROUGH SUNDAY.

&&

.MARINE...
ALL GALE WARNINGS HAVE BEEN DISCONTINUED AS A COLD FRONT BOUNDARY
JUST EAST OF THE BIG ISLAND CONTINUES TO MOVE AWAY FROM THE ALOHA
STATE. A SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY IS NOW IN EFFECT FOR MOST WATERS DUE
TO THE ARRIVAL OF A VERY LARGE NORTHWEST SWELL TODAY.

THE INCREASING NORTHWEST SWELL IS EXPECTED TO PUSH SURF HEIGHTS INTO
WARNING LEVELS ALONG NORTH FACING SHORES OF THE SMALLER ISLANDS AND
WEST FACING SHORES OF KAUAI COUNTY. THE SWELL SHOULD BE LARGE ENOUGH
TO BRING ADVISORY CONDITIONS ALONG THE WAIANAE COAST IN OAHU TODAY.
SURF HEIGHTS SHOULD SUBSIDE EARLY MONDAY...BUT WILL LIKELY REMAIN
ELEVATED ENOUGH TO KEEP ADVISORY CONDITIONS THROUGH MON EVENING.

&&

.HFO WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
HIGH SURF WARNING UNTIL 6 AM HST MONDAY FOR NIIHAU-KAUAI
WINDWARD-KAUAI LEEWARD-OAHU NORTH SHORE-OAHU KOOLAU-MOLOKAI-
MAUI WINDWARD WEST-MAUI CENTRAL VALLEY-WINDWARD HALEAKALA.

HIGH SURF ADVISORY UNTIL 6 AM HST MONDAY FOR WAIANAE COAST.

WIND ADVISORY UNTIL 6 PM HST THIS EVENING FOR BIG ISLAND SUMMITS.

SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 6 AM HST MONDAY FOR KAUAI NORTHWEST
WATERS-KAUAI WINDWARD WATERS-KAUAI LEEWARD WATERS-KAUAI CHANNEL-
OAHU WINDWARD WATERS-OAHU LEEWARD WATERS-KAIWI CHANNEL-MAUI
COUNTY WINDWARD WATERS-ALENUIHAHA CHANNEL-BIG ISLAND WINDWARD
WATERS.

&&

DISCUSSION/MARINE...REYNES
AVIATION...POWELL