Frost Advisory 13, NWS Green Bay, WI

138 
WWUS73 KGRB 030331
NPWGRB

URGENT - WEATHER MESSAGE
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GREEN BAY WI
1031 PM CDT FRI OCT 2 2015

...EXPECT ANOTHER CHILLY NIGHT ACROSS NORTHERN AND CENTRAL
WISCONSIN...

.CANADIAN HIGH PRESSURE WILL REMAIN IN PLACE ACROSS THE AREA
OVERNIGHT. CLEAR SKIES WILL ALLOW TEMPERATURES TO DROP INTO THE
30S ACROSS MUCH OF THE AREA...ALLOWING FROST TO FORM. A FEW
LOCATIONS IN NORTH CENTRAL WISCONSIN COULD EXPERIENCE SUBFREEZING
TEMPERATURES FOR A COUPLE OF HOURS.

WIZ005-010>013-018>021-030-031-035>037-045-031300-
/O.CON.KGRB.FR.Y.0013.151003T0600Z-151003T1300Z/
VILAS-ONEIDA-FOREST-FLORENCE-NORTHERN MARINETTE COUNTY-LINCOLN-
LANGLADE-MENOMINEE-NORTHERN OCONTO COUNTY-MARATHON-SHAWANO-WOOD-
PORTAGE-WAUPACA-WAUSHARA-
INCLUDING THE CITIES OF...LAC DU FLAMBEAU...EAGLE RIVER...
RHINELANDER...CRANDON...AURORA...COMMONWEALTH...FENCE...
FLORENCE...LONG LAKE...SPREAD EAGLE...TIPLER...NIAGARA...
WAUSAUKEE...MERRILL...TOMAHAWK...ANTIGO...KESHENA...NEOPIT...
BREED...KLONDIKE...LAKEWOOD...MOUNTAIN...TOWNSEND...WAUSAU...
WESTON...SHAWANO...MARSHFIELD...WISCONSIN RAPIDS...
STEVENS POINT...PLOVER...NEW LONDON...WAUPACA...CLINTONVILLE...
WEYAUWEGA...SILVER LAKE...WAUTOMA...REDGRANITE...PLAINFIELD...
WILD ROSE
1031 PM CDT FRI OCT 2 2015

...FROST ADVISORY REMAINS IN EFFECT FROM 1 AM TO 8 AM CDT
SATURDAY...

* TEMPERATURES ARE FORECAST TO FALL INTO THE LOWER TO MIDDLE 30S 
  AT MOST LOCATIONS BY DAYBREAK...RESULTING IN THE FORMATION OF 
  FROST ACROSS THE AREA. TEMPERATURES MAY BRIEFLY FALL BELOW 
  FREEZING AT SOME LOCATIONS IN NORTH CENTRAL WISCONSIN. 

* COLD-SENSITIVE VEGETATION COULD BE DAMAGED OR KILLED IF LEFT 
  UNPROTECTED. 

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

A FROST ADVISORY MEANS THAT FROST IS EXPECTED. SENSITIVE OUTDOOR
PLANTS MAY BE KILLED IF LEFT UNCOVERED.

&&

$$

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GREEN BAY WI
300 PM CDT FRI OCT 2 2015

FORECAST DISCUSSION FOR ROUTINE AFTERNOON FORECAST ISSUANCE

.SHORT TERM...TONIGHT AND SATURDAY
ISSUED AT 300 PM CDT FRI OCT 2 2015

SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE NEAR JAMES BAY...WITH A RIDGE EXTENDING
SOUTHWEST TO THE PLAINS...IS NOT EXPECTED TO MOVE MUCH THROUGH
00Z SUNDAY. THE AIR MASS OVER THE AREA REMAINS GENERALLY DRY AND
QUITE COOL THOUGH EAST/NORTHEAST LOW LEVEL FLOW OVER THE WARMER
WATERS OF LAKE MICHIGAN RESULTED IN CLOUD DEVELOPMENT IN EASTERN
CENTRAL AND CENTRAL WISCONSIN ONCE AGAIN...BUT IT SEEMED TO COVER
MORE OF THE AREA THIS MORNING THAN IT DID THE PAST FEW DAYS.
VISIBLE SATELLITE IMAGERY SHOWED SOME HIGH CLOUDS APPROACHING
WISCONSIN FROM THE SOUTHEAST.

MODELS SHOWED HIGH RH BELOW ABOUT 5000FT AGL LATE TONIGHT THROUGH
SATURDAY SO EXPECT CLOUDS TO INCREASE ONCE AGAIN...BUT THE
EVENING HOURS SHOULD ONLY BE PARTLY CLOUDY. THE SURFACE PRESSURE
GRADIENT ACROSS THE AREA WAS TIGHTER TODAY SO WINDS WERE STRONGER
AT MOST LOCATIONS. WOULD NOT EXPECT WINDS TO DROP OFF COMPLETELY
TONIGHT SO HAVE LOWS SLIGHTLY WARMER AND KEPT MOST OF THE AREA AT
OR ABOVE FREEZING...WITH AREAS OF SUBFREEZING TEMPERATURES IN
NORTH CENTRAL AND PARTS OF CENTRAL WISCONSIN. IF WINDS DO DROP OFF
IN THE NORTH TEMPERATURES ARE LIKELY TO TANK UNDER CLEAR SKIES WITH
CURRENT DEW POINTS ONLY IN THE LOWER AND MIDDLE 20S.

CLOUDS AND WINDS OFF LAKE MICHIGAN WILL KEEP TEMPERATURES BELOW
NORMAL AGAIN ON SATURDAY.

.LONG TERM...SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY
ISSUED AT 300 PM CDT FRI OCT 2 2015

ANOTHER COOL NIGHT IS IN STORE FOR NORTH CENTRAL WISCONSIN AS A
HUDSON BAY HIGH STAYS IN CONTROL OF OUR WEATHER. OVERNIGHT LOWS
ARE EXPECTED TO FALL TO AROUND 30 DEGREES ON SATURDAY NIGHT UNDER
MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES AND LIGHT WINDS. ELSEWHERE LOWS SHOULD STAY IN
THE MIDDLE TO UPPER 30S ACROSS CENTRAL AND PORTIONS OF EAST
CENTRAL WISCONSIN WHILE LOWS SHOULD BE AROUND 40 ACROSS EAST
CENTRAL WISCONSIN. FROST/FREEZE CONDITIONS WILL MOST LIKELY OCCUR
AGAIN SATURDAY NIGHT...HOWEVER BY THAT POINT THE GROWING SEASON
SHOULD EFFECTIVELY BE OVER ACROSS NORTH CENTRAL WISCONSIN.

THIS HIGH WILL STAY IN CONTROL OF THE WEATHER THROUGH THE EARLY
PART OF NEXT WEEK...GENERALLY KEEPING THE WEATHER SEASONABLY COOL
AND DRY. THE ONE EXCEPTION WILL BE SUNDAY NIGHT WHEN A WEAK
DISTURBANCE TRACKS THROUGH THE WESTERN GREAT LAKES REGION. WHILE
THIS FEATURE IS GENERALLY EXPECTED TO PRODUCE INCREASED
CLOUDS...THERE IS THE POSSIBILITY OF SOME LIGHT RAIN ACROSS THE
EASTERN PART OF THE CWA WHERE THERE WILL BE ADDITIONAL MOISTURE
FROM LAKE MICHIGAN AND THE BAY OF GREEN BAY TO ASSIST IN SHOWER
DEVELOPMENT. ANY SHOWERS THAT DEVELOP ARE EXPECTED TO BE LIGHT IN
NATURE.

THE NEXT GOOD CHANCE FOR RAIN WILL BE LATE IN THE WEEK WHEN A LOW
PRESSURE SYSTEM TRACKS THROUGH THE GREAT LAKES REGION. NWP MODELS
HAVE COME MORE IN LINE THIS RUN...HOLDING OFF RAIN UNTIL LATER IN
THE WEEK INSTEAD OF THE MIDDLE OF THE WEEK. ALTHOUGH THE GFS
BRINGS IN THE RAIN A BIT SOONER ON WEDNESDAY...THE TREND APPEARS
TO BE LATER EACH RUN SO WILL HOLD OFF RAIN UNTIL WEDNESDAY NIGHT
AND GO WITH THE LATER CANADIAN AND ECMWF MODELS.
&&

.AVIATION...FOR 18Z TAF ISSUANCE
ISSUED AT 1253 PM CDT FRI OCT 2 2015

LAKE EFFECT CLOUDS PRODUCED SOME MVFR CIGS ACROSS CENTRAL AND
EAST CENTRAL WISCONSIN TODAY...BUT MOST CIGS WERE VFR BY 17Z.
OTHERWISE E/NE WINDS REMAINED GUSTY. MUCH OF THE LAKE EFFECT WILL
DIMINISH LATE TODAY AND TONIGHT BUT WOULD EXPECT A REPEAT ON
SATURDAY...ESPECIALLY WITH MODELS SHOWING HIGH RH VALUES BELOW
5000FT AGL DURING THE DAY. EXPECT SOME MVFR CIGS...MAINLY
EARLY...WITH CLOUD BASES RISING DURING THE DAY.
&&

.GRB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FROST ADVISORY FROM 1 AM TO 8 AM CDT SATURDAY FOR WIZ005-010>013-
018>021-030-031-035>037-045.
&&

SHORT TERM.....MG
LONG TERM......KURIMSKI
AVIATION.......MG

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GREEN BAY WI
405 AM CDT FRI OCT 2 2015

WIZ005-010>013-018>022-030-031-035>040-045-048>050-073-074-030915-
VILAS-ONEIDA-FOREST-FLORENCE-NORTHERN MARINETTE COUNTY-LINCOLN-
LANGLADE-MENOMINEE-NORTHERN OCONTO COUNTY-DOOR-MARATHON-SHAWANO-
WOOD-PORTAGE-WAUPACA-OUTAGAMIE-BROWN-KEWAUNEE-WAUSHARA-WINNEBAGO-
CALUMET-MANITOWOC-SOUTHERN MARINETTE COUNTY-
SOUTHERN OCONTO COUNTY-
405 AM CDT FRI OCT 2 2015

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR NORTH CENTRAL AND NORTHEAST
WISCONSIN.

.DAY ONE...TODAY AND TONIGHT

ANOTHER FROST IS POSSIBLE OVER PORTIONS OF NORTHERN AND CENTRAL
WISCONSIN TONIGHT.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY

FROST OR FREEZING TEMPERATURES ARE LIKELY NORTH AND WEST OF THE
FOX VALLEY SATURDAY NIGHT...WITH FROST AGAIN POSSIBLE SUNDAY NIGHT.
SOME OF THE TYPICAL COLD SPOTS ACROSS NORTH-CENTRAL WISCONSIN COULD
SPEND SEVERAL HOURS BELOW FREEZING SATURDAY NIGHT. BE SURE TO COVER
COLD SENSITIVE PLANTS TO PROTECT THEM FROM A FROST EACH NIGHT.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

SPOTTER ACTIVATION WILL NOT BE NEEDED TODAY OR TONIGHT.

LMZ521-522-541>543-030915-
THE BAY OF GREEN BAY SOUTH OF A LINE FROM CEDAR RIVER MI TO ROCK
ISLAND PASSAGE-LAKE MICHIGAN FROM WASHINGTON ISLAND TO SHEBOYGAN-
405 AM CDT FRI OCT 2 2015

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR PORTIONS OF NORTHWEST LAKE
MICHIGAN AND THE WATERS OF GREEN BAY.

.DAY ONE...TODAY AND TONIGHT

NORTHEAST WINDS AND LARGE WAVES COULD BE HAZARDOUS TO SMALL
CRAFT.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY

HAZARDOUS CONDITIONS FOR SMALL CRAFTS WILL CONTINUE THROUGH
SATURDAY WITH WINDS GUSTING TO NEAR 30 KNOTS FROM THE NORTHEAST
PRODUCING LARGE WAVES. ALTHOUGH WINDS WILL GRADUALLY DIMINISH
SATURDAY NIGHT...THE PERSISTENT NORTHEAST FLOW MAY CONTINUE TO
BRING HIGH WAVES AND HAZARDOUS CONDITIONS ON LAKE MICHIGAN INTO
SUNDAY.

RDM/ECKBERG