Wind Advisory 14, NWS Sioux Falls, SD

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SIOUX FALLS SD
409 PM CDT SUN OCT 11 2015

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH MONDAY)
ISSUED AT 408 PM CDT SUN OCT 11 2015

WIND AT THE FOREFRONT OF CONCERNS IN THE SHORT TERM...AS FIRE
WEATHER CONCERNS PEAK LATE AFTERNOON THROUGH PASSAGE OF COLD
FRONT... THEN INCREASE IN WINDS WITH SECONDARY PUSH LATE TONIGHT AND
THROUGH THE DAY ON MONDAY.

STRONG COLD FRONT EXTENDS AT 20Z FROM EASTERN NORTH CENTRAL SD TO
WESTERN SOUTH CENTRAL SD...TEMPS IN LOWER TO MID 90S AHEAD OF THE
FRONT...AND UPPER 60S ACROSS NORTHWEST SOUTH DAKOTA WITH WINDS
GUSTING FROM 40 TO 60 MPH. STRONG ISALLOBARIC PUSH WILL MOVE ACROSS
THE CWA...WITH A GREATER FOCUS PUSHING ACROSS THE LOWER BRULE
LOCATIONS FROM 22Z-01Z. FAIRLY LIKELY THAT WINDS WILL REACH A BRIEF
PERIOD OF ADVISORY LEVELS BETWEEN FRONTAL PASSAGE AND AROUND SUNSET.
WILL HOLD OFF ON ISSUING A COUPLE OR THREE HOUR ADVISORY IN THE
LOWER BRULE AREAS...BUT WOULD NOT BE SURPRISED TO GET A GUSTY 30-50
MPH WIND AFTER FRONTAL PASSAGE. WITH A BIT OF NOCTURNAL
STABILIZATION...SHOULD TAKE THE EDGE OFF STRONGEST WINDS BUT STILL A
NOTABLE INCREASE THIS EVENING FOR A TIME. SUBTLE SURFACE RIDGING
BEHIND THE FRONT SHOULD HELP TO DECOUPLE A BIT MORE OVERNIGHT...BUT
LATER IN THE NIGHT...LOOK FOR A SECONDARY SURGE OF WINDS WITH
GREATER DYNAMICAL SUPPORT AND MORE CONCENTRATED COLD AIR
ADVECTION/ISENTROPIC DESCENT WILL SWING SOUTHEAST ACROSS THE AREA.

WILL BRING IN A WIND ADVISORY STARTING 09Z ACROSS THE
NORTH/WEST...AND EXPAND THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF THE AREA AS OF 12Z.
DEEP MIXING WILL KEEP STRONG WINDS GOING...WITH 35 TO 45 KNOTS IN
THE UPPER HALF OF THE MIXED LAYER. WILL LIKELY SEE A FAIRLY STEADY
DROPOFF WEST TO EAST DURING THE AFTERNOON AS MIXING FIGHTS TO
BALANCE THE GRADUAL LOSS IN GRADIENT.

WILL SEE A PUSH OF STRATOCUMULUS ACCOMPANY THE COOLER AIR POOL
SOUTHEAST DURING THE MORNING AND EARLY AFTERNOON...BUT SHOULD BE
FURIOUSLY MIXING OUT BY EARLY AFTERNOON. TEMPS WILL SIDE CLOSER TO A
WARMER SET IN THE MISSOURI VALLEY...BUT SHADE TOWARD A SLIGHTLY
COOLER SIDE OF THE GUIDANCE SET ACROSS THE NORTHEAST WITH EARLY DAY
CLOUDS...ALTHOUGH MOST WILL BE BASED ON SOME SEMBLANCE OF RAW
GUIDANCE.

MONDAY...A CLOSE CALL FOR POTENTIAL CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER CONDITIONS
WITH RH FORECAST NEAR 25 PERCENT IN THE LOWER MISSOURI VALLEY TO
ACCOMPANY THE WINDS. HOWEVER...VERY SHORT DURATION PERIOD OF THESE
CONDITIONS...AND HAVE COORDINATED TO NOT GO WITH A FIRE WEATHER
WATCH IN SE SD AND NORTHEAST NEBRASKA.

.LONG TERM...(MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY)
ISSUED AT 408 PM CDT SUN OCT 11 2015

WINDS WILL DECREASE RAPIDLY MONDAY NIGHT AND WITH THE DRY AIR AND
CLEAR OR MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES IN PLACE...USING THE COLDEST GUIDANCE
VALUES STILL LOOKS LIKE A GOOD IDEA. IN THIS CASE THE LOWS MONDAY
NIGHT LOOKED BEST USING SOME ECMWF BIAS CORRECTED DATA...AS WELL AS
MOS AND MOS BIAS CORRECTED. THIS GIVES OUR NORTHERN AND WESTERN
ZONES A LOT OF UPPER 30S...WITH 40 TO 45 ELSEWHERE.

TUESDAY IS ANOTHER PLEASANT DAY...ALBEIT BECOMING QUITE BREEZY
BEHIND A WIND SHIFT IN THE AFTERNOON ACROSS THE WESTERN ZONES. HIGHS
WILL BE WELL ABOVE NORMAL WITH UPPER 60S TO MID 70S. IN ADDITION OUR
WESTERN ZONES BEHIND THE WIND SHIFT WILL LIKELY EXPERIENCE AN
ELEVATED FIRE DANGER TUESDAY AFTERNOON...BUT SHOULD STAY SLIGHTLY
AWAY FROM RED FLAG CRITERIA AND THE TIME DURATION OF ELEVATED FIRE
CONDITIONS WILL BE PRETTY SHORT. TUESDAY NIGHT IS ANOTHER NIGHT WITH
DRY AIR AND A NORTHERLY FLOW IN PLACE TO HEDGE TOWARD THE COOLER
GUIDANCE VALUES. THIS SHAVED OFF A COUPLE OF CATEGORIES OFF OF THE
LOWS FROM WHAT THESE VALUES HAVE BEEN SHOWING THE PAST DAY OR TWO.
WEDNESDAY WILL FOLLOW WITH HIGHS A FEW DEGREES COOLER THAN
TUESDAYS...GENERALLY ABOUT 65 TO 70 DEGREES.

STILL APPEARS A PRETTY STRONG...BUT LIKELY DRY...COLD FRONT WILL
MOVE ACROSS THE AREA ON THURSDAY. THE JET STREAM BUCKLES INTO A
SHARP NORTHWESTERLY FLOW ALOFT. THIS WILL ALLOW COOLER...MORE
SEASONAL AIR TO TAKEOVER THE REGION LATE THIS WEEK. HIGHS FRIDAY AND
SATURDAY WILL LIKELY BE A COUPLE OF DEGREES EITHER SIDE OF 60.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z MONDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 1125 AM CDT SUN OCT 11 2015

WINDS CONTINUE TO BE LARGEST CONCERN FOR AVIATION INTERESTS
THROUGH 18Z MON. GUSTS WILL LIKELY REACH 30 TO 35 KNOTS BEHIND
FRONTAL BOUNDARY EXPECTED INTO KHON AROUND 20-21Z...BUT SHOULD
DROP OFF HIGHEST GUSTS TOWARD KFSD AND KSUX...STILL LIKELY 25 TO
30 KNOTS FOR A TIME. STRONGER WINDS WILL LIKELY REDEVELOP LATER IN
THE NIGHT...ESPECIALLY FOR AREAS NORTH OF A KHON TO KFSD TO KSPW
LINE DURING THE MORNING ON MONDAY.

VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED WITH THE FRONT...WITH A BIT OF CIRRUS
MOVING THROUGH AT THAT TIME.

&&

.FSD WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SD...WIND ADVISORY FROM 7 AM TO 4 PM CDT MONDAY FOR SDZ066-067-
     069>071.

     RED FLAG WARNING UNTIL 7 PM CDT THIS EVENING FOR SDZ255-256.

     WIND ADVISORY FROM 4 AM TO 2 PM CDT MONDAY FOR SDZ038-039-050-
     052>055-057>061-063>065-068.

     WIND ADVISORY FROM 4 AM TO 4 PM CDT MONDAY FOR SDZ040-056-062.

MN...WIND ADVISORY FROM 4 AM TO 4 PM CDT MONDAY FOR MNZ071-072-080-
     081-089-090-097-098.

IA...WIND ADVISORY FROM 7 AM TO 4 PM CDT MONDAY FOR IAZ001>003-
     012>014-020>022-031-032.

NE...WIND ADVISORY FROM 7 AM TO 4 PM CDT MONDAY FOR NEZ013-014.

&&

SHORT TERM...CHAPMAN
LONG TERM...MJ
AVIATION...CHAPMAN

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SIOUX FALLS SD
357 AM CDT SUN OCT 11 2015

SDZ038-039-050-052>054-057>061-063>065-068-120900-
BEADLE-KINGSBURY-GREGORY-JERAULD-SANBORN-MINER-BRULE-AURORA-
DAVISON-HANSON-MCCOOK-CHARLES MIX-DOUGLAS-HUTCHINSON-BON HOMME-
357 AM CDT SUN OCT 11 2015

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR PORTIONS OF EAST CENTRAL
SOUTH DAKOTA...SOUTH CENTRAL SOUTH DAKOTA AND SOUTHEAST SOUTH
DAKOTA.

.DAY ONE...TODAY AND TONIGHT

NEAR RECORD WARMTH COMBINED WITH BREEZY WINDS WILL PRODUCE HIGH TO
EXTREME FIRE DANGER ACROSS THIS AFTERNOON. THE HIGHEST FIRE
DANGER RISK WILL BE FOUND ALONG AND WEST OF THE JAMES RIVER
VALLEY. USE CAUTION IF HARVESTING OR DRIVING IN DORMANT GRASSES.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY

STRONG NORTHWEST WINDS ARE EXPECTED LATE SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY.
SUSTAINED WINDS 20 TO 30 MPH WITH WIND GUSTS UP TO 45 MPH ARE
POSSIBLE. THE FIRE DANGER RISK WILL LIKELY REACH HIGH LEVELS
AGAIN ON MONDAY. USE CAUTION IF HARVESTING OR DRIVING IN DORMANT
GRASSES.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

SPOTTER ACTIVATION WILL NOT BE NEEDED.

IAZ001>003-012>014-020>022-031-032-MNZ071-072-080-081-089-090-097-
098-NEZ013-014-SDZ040-055-056-062-066-067-069>071-120900-
LYON IA-OSCEOLA-DICKINSON-SIOUX-O'BRIEN-CLAY IA-PLYMOUTH-CHEROKEE-
BUENA VISTA-WOODBURY-IDA-LINCOLN MN-LYON MN-MURRAY-COTTONWOOD-
NOBLES-JACKSON-PIPESTONE-ROCK-DIXON-DAKOTA-BROOKINGS-LAKE-MOODY-
MINNEHAHA-TURNER-LINCOLN SD-YANKTON-CLAY SD-UNION-
357 AM CDT SUN OCT 11 2015

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR PORTIONS OF NORTHWEST
IOWA...SOUTHWEST MINNESOTA...NORTHEAST NEBRASKA...EAST CENTRAL
SOUTH DAKOTA AND SOUTHEAST SOUTH DAKOTA.

.DAY ONE...TODAY AND TONIGHT

NEAR RECORD WARMTH COMBINED WITH BREEZY WINDS WILL LEAD TO HIGH FIRE
DANGER ACROSS MUCH OF THE AREA THIS AFTERNOON. USE CAUTION IF
HARVESTING OR DRIVING IN DORMANT GRASSES.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY

STRONG NORTHWEST WINDS ARE EXPECTED LATE SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH
MONDAY. SUSTAINED WINDS 20 TO 30 MPH WITH WIND GUSTS UP TO 45 MPH
ARE POSSIBLE. THE FIRE DANGER RISK MAY REACH HIGH LEVELS ON
MONDAY. USE CAUTION IF HARVESTING OR DRIVING IN DORMANT GRASSES.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

SPOTTER ACTIVATION WILL NOT BE NEEDED.