Severe Thunderstorm Warning 145, NWS Atlanta, GA

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PEACHTREE CITY GA
129 PM EDT SUN JUN 21 2015

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 418 AM EDT SUN JUN 21 2015/

SHORT TERM /TODAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
WITH THE PASSAGE OF THE REMNANTS OF BILL OFF THE EAST COAST THIS
MORNING...THE UPPER RIDGE WILL BUILD BACK ACROSS THE AREA DURING THE
SHORT TERM. SOMEWHAT DRIER WEST TO NORTHWEST FLOW WILL PREVAIL OVER
THE AREA. SHOULD BE NO REAL FOCUS FOR STORM DEVELOPMENT EXCEPT MAYBE
WHAT IS LEFT OF THE OLD BOUNDARY NOW ACROSS CENTRAL GA...AND
POSSIBLY SOME TERRAIN EFFECTS IN THE NORTHEAST. HAVE MADE NO REAL
CHANGES TO THE POPS AND HAVE CONTINUED WITH SLIGHT CHANCE FAR NORTH
AND PORTIONS OF CENTRAL FOR THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING AND AGAIN
MONDAY.

LOOKING FOR MAX TEMPERATURES TO CONTINUE INTO THE MID TO UPPER 90S
INTO THE FIRST OF THE WEEK. HIGHEST HEAT INDEX VALUES THIS AFTERNOON
WILL BE OVER PORTIONS OF CENTRAL GA...BUT THE VALUES REMAIN JUST
BELOW ADVISORY CRITERIA. MONDAY MAY HAVE SOME ISOLATED AREAS THAT
MEET ADVISORY CRITERIA BUT NEXT SHIFTS CAN MONITOR THIS.

41

LONG TERM /MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY/...
MAIN FOCUS CONTINUES TO BE THE NEXT ROUND OF OPPRESSIVE HEAT
PROGGED TO RETURN TO THE AREA WITH A BROAD UPPER RIDGE FROM THE
WEST AND INCREASING THICKNESSES THRU MIDWEEK. STAYED A BIT HIGHER
THAN THE LATEST BLEND OF GUIDANCE...WHICH WAS ODDLY COOLER THAN
PREVIOUS RUNS. TUE/WED PERIOD STILL LOOKS TO BE THE HOTTEST WITH
SOME PORTIONS OF CENTRAL GA FCST TO REACH RESULTANT HEAT INDICES
AT OR EXCEEDING ADVISORY LEVELS OF 105 DEG. ALSO KEEPING SLIGHT TO
LOW END CHANCE POPS FOR ANY DIURNALLY DRIVEN SHOWERS AND STORMS IN
THE FAR NORTHEAST AND SOUTHERN TIER ON TUESDAY...SLIGHTLY GREATER
FOR WEDNESDAY...THEN HIGHER END CHANCE POPS FOR THE REST OF THE
PERIOD AS RIDGE BEGINS TO BREAK DOWN AND INSTABILITY IS MORE
EASILY ATTAINED WITH DAYTIME HEATING. LATEST MODEL SOLUTIONS BACK
OFF ON THE UPPER TROUGH SETTING UP ACROSS THE AREA BY NEXT
WEEKEND...THOUGH HAVE NW FLOW FLIRTING WITH NORTH GA TO SOME
DEGREE BY LATE FRIDAY AND SATURDAY. ANY IMPULSES TRAVERSING THE
WAVE ENERGY MAY FOCUS GREATER CHANCES FOR STORMS BUT TRICKY TO
FCST ATTM THIS FAR OUT.

BAKER

CLIMATE...

RECORDS FOR 06-22 MONDAY

               MAX TEMPERATURE         MIN TEMPERATURE
  STATION      HIGH        LOW         HIGH        LOW
  -------  ----------  ----------  ----------  ----------
   KAHN     102 2006     63 1947     76 1981     58 1972
                1925                                1947
   KATL      98 1964     64 1947     77 1925     56 1947
   KMCN     101 1925     70 1947     78 1915     58 1966
                                                    1947
   KCSG     100 2006     77 1963     77 1981     60 1992
                1988

RECORDS FOR 06-23 TUESDAY

               MAX TEMPERATURE         MIN TEMPERATURE
  STATION      HIGH        LOW         HIGH        LOW
  -------  ----------  ----------  ----------  ----------
   KAHN     101 1988     71 1963     77 1944     53 1947
                1944
                1931
   KATL      99 1944     70 1963     77 1944     54 1972
                1930
   KMCN     101 1988     78 1947     75 1954     56 1966
                1981        1936        1951
                1944                    1950
   KCSG     100 1998     81 1983     79 2009     57 1972
                1981        1963
                1951

RECORDS FOR 06-24 WEDNESDAY

               MAX TEMPERATURE         MIN TEMPERATURE
  STATION      HIGH        LOW         HIGH        LOW
  -------  ----------  ----------  ----------  ----------
   KAHN     105 1930     74 1991     78 1944     53 1947
   KATL      99 1988     74 1991     78 1930     54 1972
                1930
   KMCN     101 1988     77 1991     77 1932     53 1947
                1930        1963
   KCSG     100 1988     80 1963     78 2010     57 1972
                1981
                1951

RECORDS FOR 06-25 THURSDAY

               MAX TEMPERATURE         MIN TEMPERATURE
  STATION      HIGH        LOW         HIGH        LOW
  -------  ----------  ----------  ----------  ----------
   KAHN     105 1914     72 1979     76 1931     58 1922
   KATL     100 1914     70 1991     76 2010     59 1889
                                        1952
                                        1914
   KMCN     103 1914     74 1928     77 1930     59 1990
                                        1914
   KCSG     101 1988     76 1963     76 2010     61 1974
                                        1996

&&

.AVIATION...
18Z UPDATE...
VFR CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE THROUGH THE FORECAST. ISOLATED TO SCATTERED
SHRA/TSRA HAVE DEVELOPED ACROSS WEST AND CENTRAL GA. THESE WILL
CONTINUE THROUGH THE AFTERNOON WITH CSG/MCN HAVING THE BEST
CHANCES OF SEEING CONVECTION AT THE AIRPORT. CU/SHRA/TSRA WILL
DISSIPATE THIS EVENING. EXPECT ANOTHER CU FIELD TO DEVELOP MONDAY
MORNING. WINDS WILL REMAIN WEST TO NORTHWEST THROUGH THE FORECAST.

//ATL CONFIDENCE...18Z UPDATE...
HIGH ON ALL ELEMENTS.

17

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
ATHENS          95  73  96  74 /  20  20  10  10
ATLANTA         92  75  93  76 /  20  20  10  10
BLAIRSVILLE     88  66  89  67 /  20  20  30  30
CARTERSVILLE    92  71  93  72 /  20  20  10  10
COLUMBUS        94  75  95  75 /  30  30  10  10
GAINESVILLE     91  74  93  74 /  20  20  10  10
MACON           96  74  96  75 /  20  20  20  20
ROME            94  70  94  71 /  20  20  10  10
PEACHTREE CITY  92  72  93  72 /  20  20  10  10
VIDALIA         97  76  97  75 /  30  30  40  40

&&

.FFC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

SHORT TERM...17
LONG TERM....31
AVIATION...17

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PEACHTREE CITY GA
446 AM EDT SUN JUN 21 2015

GAZ001>009-011>016-019>025-027-030>039-041>062-066>076-078>086-
089>098-102>113-220900-
BALDWIN-BANKS-BARROW-BARTOW-BIBB-BLECKLEY-BUTTS-CARROLL-CATOOSA-
CHATTAHOOCHEE-CHATTOOGA-CHEROKEE-CLARKE-CLAYTON-COBB-COWETA-
CRAWFORD-CRISP-DADE-DAWSON-DEKALB-DODGE-DOOLY-DOUGLAS-EMANUEL-
FANNIN-FAYETTE-FLOYD-FORSYTH-GILMER-GLASCOCK-GORDON-GREENE-
GWINNETT-HALL-HANCOCK-HARALSON-HARRIS-HEARD-HENRY-HOUSTON-JACKSON-
JASPER-JEFFERSON-JOHNSON-JONES-LAMAR-LAURENS-LUMPKIN-MACON-
MADISON-MARION-MERIWETHER-MONROE-MONTGOMERY-MORGAN-MURRAY-
MUSCOGEE-NEWTON-NORTH FULTON-OCONEE-OGLETHORPE-PAULDING-PEACH-
PICKENS-PIKE-POLK-PULASKI-PUTNAM-ROCKDALE-SCHLEY-SOUTH FULTON-
SPALDING-STEWART-SUMTER-TALBOT-TALIAFERRO-TAYLOR-TELFAIR-TOOMBS-
TOWNS-TREUTLEN-TROUP-TWIGGS-UNION-UPSON-WALKER-WALTON-WARREN-
WASHINGTON-WEBSTER-WHEELER-WHITE-WHITFIELD-WILCOX-WILKES-
WILKINSON-
446 AM EDT SUN JUN 21 2015

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR PORTIONS OF NORTH AND CENTRAL GEORGIA.

.DAY ONE...TODAY AND TONIGHT...

ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS ARE POSSIBLE IN THE FAR NORTH AND SOUTH
CENTRAL PORTIONS OF THE AREA WITH DAYTIME HEATING AND A LINGERING
BOUNDARY.

WEATHER HAZARDS...
OCCASIONAL LIGHTNING. GUSTY WINDS WILL ALSO BE POSSIBLE.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY...

ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES WILL CONTINUE INTO THE WORK WEEK WITH
THE WARMEST PERIOD BEING MONDAY THROUGH THURSDAY AS ANOTHER UPPER
RIDGE BUILDS INTO THE REGION. RESULTANT HEAT INDICES IN THIS
PERIOD MAY REACH OR EXCEED 105 ONCE AGAIN IN PORTIONS OF CENTRAL
GEORGIA.

DAILY ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS ARE POSSIBLE THROUGH THE FIRST HALF
OF THE WORK WEEK MAINLY IN THE FAR NORTH AND SOUTH CENTRAL
PORTIONS OF THE AREA...WITH SLIGHTLY GREATER COVERAGE FOR
WEDNESDAY. CHANCES INCREASE FURTHER FOR THURSDAY THROUGH SATURDAY
AS THE UPPER RIDGE BEGINS TO BREAK DOWN AND ALLOWS FOR OTHER
DISTURBANCES TO APPROACH THE AREA BY THE END OF THE WEEK. GUSTY
WINDS...HEAVY RAIN...AND FREQUENT LIGHTNING WILL BE THE MAIN
THREATS WITH ANY DEVELOPMENT.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

SPOTTER ACTIVATION WILL NOT BE NEEDED THROUGH TONIGHT.