Severe Thunderstorm Warning 103, NWS Atlanta, GA

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PEACHTREE CITY GA
344 PM EDT WED JUN 3 2015

.SHORT TERM /TONIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT/...
SHORT TERM MODELS CONTINUE IN GOOD AGREEMENT WITH THE OVERALL
PATTERN. THE UPPER LEVEL LOW TRACKS OVER THE CAROLINAS BY EARLY
TOMORROW MORNING AND CONTINUES TO SHIFT AWAY FROM THE FORECAST
AREA. PROXIMITY OF A WEAK...NEARLY STATIONARY BOUNDARY AND GOOD
MOISTURE ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA WILL CONTINUE TO PROVIDE THE
IMPETUS FOR AFTERNOON AND EVENING SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS. A FEW
OF THE STORMS HAVE ALREADY PRODUCED ONE INCH HAIL TODAY AND THE
THREAT FOR ISOLATED SEVERE STORMS WILL CONTINUE THROUGH LATE
EVENING. AS THE LOW PULLS AWAY FROM THE AREA TOMORROW...THE
CHANCE OR ISOLATED SEVERE STORMS WILL DIMINISH SOMEWHAT. LOCALLY
HEAVY RAINFALL WILL CONTINUE TO BE POSSIBLE WITH ANY STORM THAT
DEVELOPS. GUIDANCE TEMPERATURES CONTINUE TO BE CLOSE AND WILL STAY
IN LINE.

ATWELL

.LONG TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
PATTERN STILL SLOW TO EVOLVE OVER CONUS LATE THIS WEEK AND EARLY
NEXT. UPPER LOW WILL MOVE OFF LATE THURS WITH NW FLOW ALOFT IN ITS
WAKE. BY EARLY NEXT WEEK...MED RANGE MODELS NOW INDICATING MORE
ZONAL FLOW LIKELY...WITH MORE PRONOUNCED FLOW TO THE NORTH OF THE
STATE.

AS MENTIONED YESTERDAY...NOT SEEING MANY FEATURES OR SIGNIFICANT
SHORT WAVES TO KEY IN ON. HOWEVER...GFS EVEN HINTING AT A COLD FRONT
TRYING TO ENTER NORTH GA BY WED BUT NO SUCH LOVE FROM THE 12Z EC OR
GEM. PW VALUES ALSO STILL PROGGED TO BE INCREASING TUE/WED/THUR WITH
VALUES OF 1.8 TO 1.9 ON 12Z GFS. WILL CONTINUE TO MONITOR THIS AS
FCST EVOLVES.

DUE TO DECENT MODEL AGREEMENT...DIURNAL NATURE OF CLOUDS AND
SHRA/TSRA AND LACK OF SIGNIFICANT SYNOPTIC SCALE FEATURES TO FOCUS
ON...BLEND OF PREV FCST WITH BIAS CORRECTED AND HIGHER PERFORMING
MODELS GENERALLY USED FOR ALL FIELDS.

SNELSON

PREVIOUS LONG TERM DISCUSSION /THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY/...
/ISSUED 347 AM EDT WED JUN 3 2015/ THE UPPER TROUGH CONTINUES
SHIFTING EASTWARD EARLY IN THE LONG TERM PUTTING THE CWA IN A
NORTHWEST FLOW BY THE WEEKEND. BOTH MODELS SHOW WEAK SHORT WAVES
MOVING THROUGH THE NORTHWEST FLOW BUT DIFFER ON TIMING. FOR THIS
REASON WILL GO WITH BROAD BRUSHING DIURNAL POPS THROUGH THE PERIOD
WITH HIGHER POPS NORTH DUE TO INFLUENCE OF DIFFERENTIAL HEATING IN
THE MOUNTAINS.

17

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 139 PM EDT WED JUN 3 2015/

AVIATION... 18Z UPDATE...
MVFR TO LOW VFR CIGS WILL CONTINUE AS CONVECTION DEVELOPS ACROSS
THE AREA. EXPECT MVFR TO IFR POSSIBLE BY DAY BREAK AT TAF
SITES...ESPECIALLY IF THEY GET A GOOD THUNDERSTORM THIS AFTERNOON.
CONVECTION FIRING ALONG AND AHEAD OF STATIONARY BOUNDARY AND IN
VICINITY OF UPPER LEVEL LOW...AND EXPECT AN INCREASE IN COVERAGE
THROUGH HEATING THIS AFTERNOON. TIMING WILL BE HARD TO PINPOINT AT
ANY GIVEN LOCATION BUT HAVE KEPT TEMPOS MAINLY 19-24Z. SURFACE
WINDS MAINLY EAST 10 KTS OR LESS.

//ATL CONFIDENCE...18Z UPDATE...
LOW CONFIDENCE FOR CEILINGS AND TIMING OF TS.
HIGH CONFIDENCE FOR WINDS AND VSBYS.

ATWELL

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
ATHENS          62  80  63  85 /  60  40  40  40
ATLANTA         65  80  67  84 /  20  30   5  20
BLAIRSVILLE     58  76  58  79 /  30  60  20  40
CARTERSVILLE    59  81  63  85 /  20  30   5  20
COLUMBUS        67  85  68  88 /  30  30   5  20
GAINESVILLE     62  78  64  83 /  30  40  20  30
MACON           64  84  64  87 /  40  30  20  20
ROME            61  82  63  86 /  20  30   5  20
PEACHTREE CITY  63  82  63  85 /  20  30   5  20
VIDALIA         66  85  68  86 /  60  50  30  30

&&

.FFC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

SHORT TERM...ATWELL
LONG TERM....SNELSON
AVIATION...ATWELL

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PEACHTREE CITY GA
346 AM EDT WED JUN 3 2015

GAZ001>009-011>016-019>025-027-030>039-041>062-066>076-078>086-
089>098-102>113-040800-
BALDWIN-BANKS-BARROW-BARTOW-BIBB-BLECKLEY-BUTTS-CARROLL-CATOOSA-
CHATTAHOOCHEE-CHATTOOGA-CHEROKEE-CLARKE-CLAYTON-COBB-COWETA-
CRAWFORD-CRISP-DADE-DAWSON-DEKALB-DODGE-DOOLY-DOUGLAS-EMANUEL-
FANNIN-FAYETTE-FLOYD-FORSYTH-GILMER-GLASCOCK-GORDON-GREENE-
GWINNETT-HALL-HANCOCK-HARALSON-HARRIS-HEARD-HENRY-HOUSTON-JACKSON-
JASPER-JEFFERSON-JOHNSON-JONES-LAMAR-LAURENS-LUMPKIN-MACON-
MADISON-MARION-MERIWETHER-MONROE-MONTGOMERY-MORGAN-MURRAY-
MUSCOGEE-NEWTON-NORTH FULTON-OCONEE-OGLETHORPE-PAULDING-PEACH-
PICKENS-PIKE-POLK-PULASKI-PUTNAM-ROCKDALE-SCHLEY-SOUTH FULTON-
SPALDING-STEWART-SUMTER-TALBOT-TALIAFERRO-TAYLOR-TELFAIR-TOOMBS-
TOWNS-TREUTLEN-TROUP-TWIGGS-UNION-UPSON-WALKER-WALTON-WARREN-
WASHINGTON-WEBSTER-WHEELER-WHITE-WHITFIELD-WILCOX-WILKES-
WILKINSON-
346 AM EDT WED JUN 3 2015

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR PORTIONS OF NORTH AND CENTRAL GEORGIA.

.DAY ONE...TODAY AND TONIGHT...
ISOLATED SEVERE STORMS POSSIBLE THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING.

AN AREA OF LOW PRESSURE IN THE UPPER ATMOSPHERE WILL KEEP THE RISK
OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS OVER NORTH AND CENTRAL GEORGIA
TODAY...MAINLY THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING. INSTABILITY THIS
AFTERNOON AND EVENING WILL BE ENOUGH TO ALLOW A FEW STORMS TO
REACH SEVERE LIMITS. THE MAIN THREAT OF THE SEVERE STORMS WILL BE
1 INCH HAIL...WINDS GUSTING TO NEAR 60 MPH. LOCALLY HEAVY RAIN IS
ALSO POSSIBLE WHICH COULD CAUSE BRIEF FLOODING OF LOW LYING AREAS.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY...
SCATTERED...MAINLY AFTERNOON AND EVENING THUNDERSTORMS ARE
POSSIBLE EACH DAY. AN ISOLATED STRONG TO SEVERE STORM IS NOT OUT
OF THE QUESTION WITH THE MAIN THREAT BEING DAMAGING WINDS.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...
SPOTTER ACTIVATION IS NOT REQUESTED BUT SPOTTERS ARE ENCOURAGED
TO SUBMIT REPORTS OF SEVERE WEATHER THROUGH THE WEB BY GOING TO
WEATHER.GOV/ATLANTA.

SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PEACHTREE CITY GA
600 PM EDT WED JUN 3 2015

GAZ104-106-032230-
SUMTER GA-CRISP GA-
600 PM EDT WED JUN 3 2015

...SIGNIFICANT WEATHER ADVISORY FOR DIME SIZED HAIL AND 40 MPH WINDS
IN SUMTER AND CRISP COUNTIES UNTIL 630 PM EDT...

AT 559 PM EDT...NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DOPPLER RADAR INDICATED A
LINE OF STRONG THUNDERSTORMS FROM EAST OF AMERICUS TO NEAR
SMITHVILLE...MOVING SOUTHEAST AT 20 MPH.

THESE STORMS HAVE THE POTENTIAL TO PRODUCE DIME SIZED SIZED HAIL...
VERY HEAVY RAIN...FREQUENT CLOUD TO GROUND LIGHTNING AND WIND GUSTS
TO 40 MPH AS THEY MOVE ACROSS SUMTER AND CRISP COUNTIES THROUGH 630
PM EDT.

SOME LOCATIONS IN THE PATH OF THESE STORMS INCLUDE AMERICUS...
LESLIE...DE SOTO...DESOTO...COBB...SUMTER...LAMAR...THE GEORGIA
VETERANS MEMORIAL STATE PARK...CROXTON CROSSROADS...MADDOX AND
HUNTINGTON.

THESE WIND GUSTS MAY PRODUCE MINOR DAMAGE TO TREE LIMBS AND BLOW
LIGHT...UNSECURED OBJECTS AROUND.

LAT...LON 3193 8440 3212 8412 3209 8398 3207 8399
      3206 8398 3205 8398 3205 8397 3203 8396
      3202 8389 3191 8392 3192 8413 3192 8434
      3187 8434
TIME...MOT...LOC 2159Z 296DEG 16KT 3206 8412 3192 8432

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PEACHTREE CITY GA
603 PM EDT WED JUN 03 2015

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0526 PM     HAIL             SAUTEE                  34.68N  83.67W
06/03/2015  E1.00 INCH       WHITE              GA   PUBLIC

            DIME TO UP TO QUARTER SIZED HAIL FELL BRIEFLY IN
            SAUTEE. REPORT FROM A HOTEL CLERK IN SAUTEE

&&

EVENT NUMBER FFC1500331

KS

SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PEACHTREE CITY GA
604 PM EDT WED JUN 3 2015

GAZ016-032230-
WHITE GA-
604 PM EDT WED JUN 3 2015

...SIGNIFICANT WEATHER ADVISORY FOR PENNY SIZED HAIL AND 40 MPH WINDS
IN SOUTHEASTERN WHITE COUNTY UNTIL 630 PM EDT...

AT 602 PM EDT...NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DOPPLER RADAR INDICATED A
STRONG THUNDERSTORM NEAR DEMOREST...OR ABOUT 4 MILES EAST OF
CLEVELAND...MOVING SOUTHEAST AT 10 MPH.

THIS STORM HAS THE POTENTIAL TO PRODUCE PENNY SIZED SIZED HAIL...
FREQUENT CLOUD TO GROUND LIGHTNING AND WIND GUSTS TO 40 MPH AS IT
MOVES ACROSS WHITE COUNTY THROUGH 630 PM EDT. HEAVY RAIN MAY ALSO
RESULT IN RISES IN SMALL CREEKS TO NEAR BANKFULL. BE AWARE OF RISING
WATERS!

SOME LOCATIONS IN THE PATH OF THIS STORM INCLUDE MOSSY CREEK AND
LEAF.

LAT...LON 3463 8364 3461 8364 3456 8363 3455 8362
      3454 8362 3450 8367 3451 8374 3456 8374
      3464 8368
TIME...MOT...LOC 2202Z 308DEG 9KT 3458 8365

SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PEACHTREE CITY GA
607 PM EDT WED JUN 3 2015

GAZ050-060-061-073-032230-
BALDWIN GA-GREENE GA-PUTNAM GA-HANCOCK GA-
607 PM EDT WED JUN 3 2015

...SIGNIFICANT WEATHER ADVISORY FOR DIME SIZED HAIL AND 35 MPH WINDS
IN BALDWIN...GREENE...PUTNAM AND HANCOCK COUNTIES UNTIL 630 PM EDT...

AT 605 PM EDT...NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DOPPLER RADAR INDICATED A
LINE OF STRONG THUNDERSTORMS FROM NEAR PHOENIX TO WEST OF SPARTA TO
NORTHEAST OF MILLEDGEVILLE...MOVING NORTHEAST AT 15 MPH.

THESE STORMS HAVE THE POTENTIAL TO PRODUCE DIME SIZED SIZED HAIL...
VERY HEAVY RAIN...FREQUENT CLOUD TO GROUND LIGHTNING AND WIND GUSTS
TO 35 MPH AS THEY MOVE ACROSS BALDWIN...GREENE...PUTNAM AND HANCOCK
COUNTIES THROUGH 630 PM EDT.

SOME LOCATIONS IN THE PATH OF THESE STORMS INCLUDE EATONTON...
SPARTA...WHITE PLAINS...REYNOLDS PLANTATION...PHOENIX...LIBERTY...
SPRINGFIELD...UNDERWOOD...OCONEE SPRINGS PARK...BEULAH...
SHOULDERBONE...ROCKVILLE AND DEVEREUX.

THESE WIND GUSTS MAY PRODUCE MINOR DAMAGE TO TREE LIMBS AND BLOW
LIGHT...UNSECURED OBJECTS AROUND.

LAT...LON 3310 8315 3324 8318 3331 8341 3348 8331
      3348 8304 3342 8295 3333 8293 3319 8293
TIME...MOT...LOC 2205Z 220DEG 11KT 3334 8328 3330 8313 3317 8312

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PEACHTREE CITY GA
616 PM EDT WED JUN 03 2015

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0509 PM     TSTM WND DMG     1 SE SWORDS             33.53N  83.29W
06/03/2015                   MORGAN             GA   911 CALL CENTER

            LOTS OF TREES DOWN. SEVERAL ON I-20 AT MILE MARKER 125.
            TRAFFIC STILL BACKED UP AS OF 6PM.

&&

EVENT NUMBER FFC1500332

SNELSON

SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PEACHTREE CITY GA
619 PM EDT WED JUN 3 2015

GAZ036>038-032245-
OGLETHORPE GA-OCONEE GA-CLARKE GA-
619 PM EDT WED JUN 3 2015

...SIGNIFICANT WEATHER ADVISORY FOR DIME SIZED HAIL AND 40 MPH WINDS
IN OGLETHORPE...OCONEE AND CLARKE COUNTIES UNTIL 645 PM EDT...

AT 617 PM EDT...NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DOPPLER RADAR INDICATED A
LINE OF STRONG THUNDERSTORMS FROM SOUTHEAST OF BISHOP TO NEAR MAXEYS
TO NORTHEAST OF WOODVILLE...AND MOVING NORTHEAST AT 10 MPH.

THESE STORMS HAVE THE POTENTIAL TO PRODUCE DIME SIZED SIZED HAIL...
VERY HEAVY RAIN...FREQUENT CLOUD TO GROUND LIGHTNING AND WIND GUSTS
TO 40 MPH AS THEY MOVE ACROSS OGLETHORPE...OCONEE AND CLARKE
COUNTIES THROUGH 645 PM EDT.

SOME LOCATIONS IN THE PATH OF THESE STORMS INCLUDE LEXINGTON...
CRAWFORD...ARNOLDSVILLE...MAXEYS...STEPHENS...BARNETT SHOALS AND
HUTCHINGS.

THESE WIND GUSTS MAY PRODUCE MINOR DAMAGE TO TREE LIMBS AND BLOW
LIGHT...UNSECURED OBJECTS AROUND.

LAT...LON 3384 8295 3381 8296 3380 8298 3377 8298
      3371 8304 3371 8307 3374 8322 3376 8328
      3373 8330 3372 8336 3386 8338 3393 8312
      3386 8292
TIME...MOT...LOC 2217Z 205DEG 7KT 3377 8333 3381 8317 3376 8306