Severe Thunderstorm Warning 76, NWS Dodge City, KS

956 
WWUS53 KDDC 250052
SVSDDC

SEVERE WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DODGE CITY KS
752 PM CDT SUN MAY 24 2015

KSC175-189-250130-
/O.CON.KDDC.SV.W.0076.000000T0000Z-150525T0130Z/
STEVENS KS-SEWARD KS-
752 PM CDT SUN MAY 24 2015

...A SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 830 PM CDT
FOR EASTERN STEVENS AND NORTHWESTERN SEWARD COUNTIES...

AT 752 PM CDT...A SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WAS LOCATED VERY NEAR WOODS...
AND IS NEARLY STATIONARY.

HAZARD...60 MPH WIND GUSTS AND UP TO HALF DOLLAR SIZE HAIL. 

SOURCE...RADAR INDICATED. 

IMPACT...HAIL DAMAGE TO VEHICLES IS EXPECTED. EXPECT WIND DAMAGE TO 
         ROOFS...SIDING AND TREES. 

LOCATIONS IMPACTED INCLUDE...
CAVE AND WOODS. 

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

FOR YOUR PROTECTION MOVE TO AN INTERIOR ROOM ON THE LOWEST FLOOR OF A
BUILDING.

&&

A TORNADO WATCH REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 100 AM CDT FOR SOUTHWESTERN
KANSAS.

LAT...LON 3709 10123 3739 10116 3739 10104 3727 10077
      3704 10110
TIME...MOT...LOC 0052Z 214DEG 19KT 3716 10111 

TORNADO...POSSIBLE
HAIL...1.25IN
WIND...60MPH

$$

HOVORKA

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DODGE CITY KS
607 PM CDT SUN MAY 24 2015

...UPDATED AVIATION DISCUSSION...

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH MONDAY)
ISSUED AT 225 PM CDT SUN MAY 24 2015

A SHORTWAVE TROUGH OVER SOUTHERN COLORADO THIS AFTERNOON WILL LIFT
NORTHEASTWARD INTO NORTHWESTERN KANSAS BY LATE TONIGHT AND THEN
INTO NEBRASKA BY MONDAY AFTERNOON. ALTHOUGH THE LOWER LEVELS HAVE
BEEN STABILIZED SOMEWHAT BY REPEATED MCS ACTIVITY OVER THE PAST
FEW DAYS, SOME RECOVERY IS EXPECTED LATE THIS AFTERNOON OVER FAR
WESTERN KANSAS AHEAD OF THE TROUGH AND MID TO UPPER LEVEL COLD
POOL. THUNDERSTORMS WERE ALREADY DEVELOPING THIS AFTERNOON OVER
THE HIGHER TERRAIN OF COLORADO. ADDITIONAL STORMS WILL DEVELOP
CLOSE TO THE COLORADO STATE LINE LATE THIS AFTERNOON. THE DEEP
LAYERED SHEAR MAY BE SUFFICIENT FOR ROTATING STORMS BUT A
TRANSITION TO MORE LINEAR TYPE STRUCTURES IS LIKELY GIVEN THE
STRONG FORCING FOR ASCENT. ALSO, UPPER LEVEL WINDS IN THE TROUGH
AXIS WERE WEAK, YIELDING VERY WEAK UPPER LEVEL SHEAR. SO DESPITE
THE MODERATE SURFACE BASED CAPE VALUES, HAIL ONLY AS LARGE AS HALF
DOLLARS IS EXPECTED. THE STORMS WILL PROBABLY EVOLVE INTO AN
ORGANIZED CLUSTER AND PROGRESS NORTHEASTWARD ACROSS WESTERN KANSAS
TONIGHT. THE BEST CHANCE FOR STORMS WILL BE ALONG AND NORTH OF A
LINE FROM ELKHART TO GARDEN CITY TO HAYS. TEMPERATURES TONIGHT
WILL BE HELD UP BY CLOUDS AND HIGH DEWPOINTS, WITH MAINLY 60S IN
CENTRAL AND SOUTH CENTRAL KANSAS AND 50S IN FAR WESTERN KANSAS.

ANOTHER SHORTWAVE TROUGH WILL APPROACH WESTERN KANSAS BY MONDAY
AFTERNOON. A FEW LATE DAY THUNDERSTORMS ARE POSSIBLE AHEAD OF THIS
FEATURE. DUE TO THE WEAK SHEAR, THESE STORMS WILL PROBABLY BE
LIMITED TO SMALL HAIL AND HEAVY RAIN. TEMPERATURES SHOULD BE
WARMER IN THE ABSENCE OF UPSLOPE FLOW, WITH HIGHS FROM THE MID 70S
IN FAR WESTERN KANSAS TO THE LOWER 80S IN SOUTH CENTRAL KANSAS.

.LONG TERM...(MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY)
ISSUED AT 328 PM CDT SUN MAY 24 2015

MEDIUM RANGE MODELS INDICATE AN UPPER LEVEL SHORTWAVE LIFTING
NORTHEAST ACROSS THE CENTRAL PLAINS INTO THE WESTERN GREAT LAKES
REGION TUESDAY GIVING WAY TO A MORE WESTERLY FLOW ALOFT ACROSS THE
WESTERN HIGH PLAINS. MEANWHILE, THE GFS AND ECMWF HINT AT A SMALLER
UPPER LEVEL SHORTWAVE EJECTING OUT OF THE ROCKIES INTO THE WESTERN
HIGH PLAINS TUESDAY AFTERNOON. ALTHOUGH THE FLOW ALOFT IS PROJECTED
TO BE FAIRLY WEAK DURING THIS TIME FRAME, ENOUGH MOISTURE WILL BE
PRESENT WITH H85 DEWPOINTS IN EXCESS OF 10C. AS LOW/MID LEVEL LAPSE
RATES STEEPEN AND MODEST INSTABILITY DEVELOPS IN CONJUNCTION WITH
THE ARRIVAL OF THE SHORTWAVE, ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE
POSSIBLE ACROSS PORTIONS OF CENTRAL AND SOUTHWEST KANSAS TUESDAY
AFTERNOON AND EVENING. HOWEVER, SEVERE WEATHER WILL BE LIMITED WITH
UNFAVORABLE SHEAR PROFILES AND CAPE VALUES WELL UNDER 1000 J/KG.
LIMITED THUNDERSTORM CHANCES WILL CONTINUE WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY AS
A SERIES OF H5 VORT MAXIMA BEGIN TO MOVE OUT OF THE ROCKIES INTO THE
WESTERN HIGH PLAINS DOWNSTREAM OF AN APPROACHING UPPER LEVEL TROUGH
ACROSS THE INTERMOUNTAIN WEST.

NEAR SEASONAL TEMPERATURES ARE EXPECTED TUESDAY WITH LITTLE CHANGE
EXPECTED TO THE OVERALL AIR MASS. THE GFS AND ECMWF SHOW H85
TEMPERATURES WELL UP INTO THE TEENS(C) TO NEAR 20C. SHOULD SEE HIGHS
CLIMBING WELL UP INTO THE 70S(F) TO NEAR 80F ONCE AGAIN TUESDAY
AFTERNOON. SIMILAR HIGH TEMPERATURES CAN BE EXPECTED THROUGH THE
LATER PART OF NEXT WEEK WITH LITTLE CHANGE TO THE OVERALL AIR MASS
ACROSS THE REGION.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z MONDAY EVENING)
ISSUED AT 603 PM CDT SUN MAY 24 2015

SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS SPREAD ACROSS WESTERN KANSAS EARLY TONIGHT
AS AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH CROSSES THE CENTRAL HIGH PLAINS. NAM BUFR
SOUNDINGS INDICATE THAT AS THE UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE CROSSES
WESTERN KANSAS EARLY TONIGHT THE SOUTHEASTERLY FLOW IN THE LOWER
LEVELS WILL CONTINUE AND THE LOWER LEVELS WILL SATURATE, MAINLY BETWEEN
03Z AND 06Z AT DDC AND GCK. BASED ON THE MODEL SOUNDINGS IFR
STATUS IS EXPECTED TO RETURN EARLY TONIGHT AND THEN PERSIST
THROUGH EARLY MONDAY MORNING AS A SOUTHEASTERLY WIND CONTINUES AT
10 TO 15 KNOTS. VISIBILITIES FALLING BACK INTO THE 1 TO 3 MILE
RANGE ALSO LOOKS LIKELY AFTER MIDNIGHT GIVEN THE LOW LEVEL
MOISTURE PROFILES. HYS WILL ALSO HAVE IFR CEILINGS AND
VISIBILITIES OVERNIGHT BUT THE ONSET OF THESE DETERIORATING
CONDITIONS WILL BE CLOSER TO 06Z. GUSTY WINDS AND HEAVY RAINFALL
WILL ACCOMPANY THE THUNDERSTORMS AS THEY CROSSES WESTERN KANSAS
EARLY TONIGHT. TIMING ON CONVECTION IS STILL UNCERTAIN BUT AT THIS
TIME IT APPEARS CONVECTION WILL MOST LIKELY TO OCCUR AROUND THE
GCK AREA AROUND 03Z AND DDC CLOSER TO 06Z. IF THE STORMS HOLD
TODAY THEN HYS WILL HAVE A CHANCE FOR THUNDERSTORMS BETWEEN 08Z
AND 11Z.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
DDC  61  80  55  78 /  20  30  20  20
GCK  58  77  52  77 /  40  30  20  20
EHA  55  77  53  78 /  20  20  20  20
LBL  59  79  54  79 /  20  20  20  20
HYS  58  77  53  79 /  40  30  30  10
P28  60  84  58  77 /  20  20  20  30

&&

.DDC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

SHORT TERM...FINCH
LONG TERM...JJOHNSON
AVIATION...BURGERT

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DODGE CITY KS
432 AM CDT SUN MAY 24 2015

KSZ030-031-043>046-061>066-074>081-084>090-251200-
TREGO-ELLIS-SCOTT-LANE-NESS-RUSH-HAMILTON-KEARNY-FINNEY-HODGEMAN-
PAWNEE-STAFFORD-STANTON-GRANT-HASKELL-GRAY-FORD-EDWARDS-KIOWA-
PRATT-MORTON-STEVENS-SEWARD-MEADE-CLARK-COMANCHE-BARBER-
432 AM CDT SUN MAY 24 2015

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR PORTIONS OF CENTRAL...SOUTH
CENTRAL...SOUTHWEST AND WEST CENTRAL KANSAS.

.DAY ONE...TODAY AND TONIGHT.

DISCUSSION...SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE POSSIBLE ACROSS THE
OUTLOOK AREA TODAY INTO TONIGHT ALTHOUGH WIDESPREAD SEVERE
THUNDERSTORMS ARE UNLIKELY. HOWEVER...ONE OR TWO STRONG STORMS
CAPABLE OF PRODUCING HAIL UP TO QUARTER SIZE AND WIND GUSTS UP TO
60 MPH WILL BE POSSIBLE SOUTH OF A LAKIN TO MEADE LINE DURING THE
LATE AFTERNOON TO EARLY EVENING HOURS.

WEATHER HAZARDS EXPECTED...

 LIMITED HAIL RISK.
 LIMITED THUNDERSTORM WIND DAMAGE RISK.
 LIMITED LIGHTNING RISK.
 LIMITED FOG RISK.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY.

HAZARDS WEATHER RISK...

  MONDAY...
  LIMITED SEVERE THUNDERSTORM RISK.

  TUESDAY...
  LIMITED SEVERE THUNDERSTORM RISK.

  WEDNESDAY...
  LIMITED LIGHTNING RISK.

  THURSDAY...
  LIMITED FLOODING RISK.
  ELEVATED LIGHTNING RISK.

  FRIDAY...
  LIMITED FLOODING RISK.
  ELEVATED LIGHTNING RISK.

  SATURDAY...
  LIMITED LIGHTNING RISK.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

SPOTTER ACTIVATION MAY BE NEEDED LATER TODAY OR TONIGHT FOR
LOCATIONS SOUTH OF A LAKIN TO MEADE LINE.

&&

FOR MORE DETAILS VISIT OUR WEBPAGE HTTP://WEATHER.GOV/DDC/EHWO