Severe Thunderstorm Warning 5, NWS Cleveland, OH

831 
WWUS51 KCLE 092222
SVSCLE

SEVERE WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CLEVELAND OH
622 PM EDT SAT MAY 9 2015

OHC155-092232-
/O.CAN.KCLE.SV.W.0005.000000T0000Z-150509T2300Z/
TRUMBULL OH-
622 PM EDT SAT MAY 9 2015

...THE SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WARNING FOR EASTERN TRUMBULL COUNTY IS
CANCELLED...

THE STORM WHICH PROMPTED THE WARNING HAS WEAKENED AND MOVED OUT OF
THE WARNED AREA.

LAT...LON 4124 8073 4150 8063 4150 8053 4147 8051
      4119 8051 4118 8052
TIME...MOT...LOC 2222Z 200DEG 16KT 4136 8054

$$

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CLEVELAND OH
349 PM EDT SAT MAY 9 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
A WEAK COLD FRONT WILL SLIDE INTO NORTHWEST OHIO TONIGHT AND LIKELY
MOVE BACK NORTH AS A WARM FRONT ON SUNDAY. LOW PRESSURE FROM THE
PLAINS STATES WILL TRACK ACROSS THE NORTHERN GREAT LAKES BY MONDAY.
THE ASSOCIATED COLD FRONT WILL CROSS THE AREA MONDAY NIGHT WITH
COOLER WEATHER RETURNING BY MID WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM SUNDAY MORNING/...
A WEAK SURFACE WAVE TRACKING ACROSS LOWER MICHIGAN WILL ALLOW THE
WEAKENING FRONT TO DRIFT INTO NORTHWEST OHIO TONIGHT...PERHAPS AS
FAR SOUTH AS THE SOUTH SHORE OF LAKE ERIE BY DAYBREAK. ALSO...THE
REMAINS OF A THUNDERSTORM COMPLEX FROM THIS MORNING...THE
WEAKENING MCV... WILL SLIDE ACROSS THE MIDWEST THIS EVENING. THERE
IS SLIGHTLY DEEPER MOISTURE AND INSTABILITY ACROSS THE WESTERN
PART OF THE FORECAST AREA. THERE IS ALSO SOMEWHAT BETTER
CONVERGENCE...AND THERE SHOULD BE A BETTER CHANCE OF
SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS WEST OF I-71. WILL CALL IT "SCATTERED"
ACROSS NORTHWEST OHIO THIS EVENING COMPARED TO CHANCE/SLIGHT
CHANCE ELSEWHERE. IT WILL BE A WARM NIGHT WITH LOWS IN THE 60S.
FORECAST LOWS WILL BE GENERALLY A DEGREE OR TWO ABOVE GUIDANCE.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM SUNDAY MORNING THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT/...
NOT SURE HOW FAR THE COLD FRONT WILL SAG SOUTH EARLY SUNDAY. WITH
LOW PRESSURE DEEPENING OVER THE PLAINS STATES WE WILL LIKELY SEE A
WIND SHIFT FROM THE NORTHEAST NEAR LAKE ERIE REGARDLESS TO WHERE
THE FRONT IS IN RESPONSE TO THE PRESSURE GRADIENT. THIS TYPE OF
CONVERGENCE IS OFTEN SHALLOW SO THAT IT DOES LITTLE FOR THE
INITIATION OF CONVECTION BUT OBVIOUSLY CAN MAKE FOR A COOLER DAY
ALONG THE LAKE ERIE SHORE. THE RIDGE ALOFT WILL BEGIN TO WEAKEN
THOUGH AND DEW POINTS WILL CONTINUE TO RISE AND WOULD EXPECT A
CHANCE OF SHOWERS/STORMS JUST ABOUT ANYWHERE. PROBABLY NOT REALLY
ANYTHING ORGANIZED. FORECAST POPS WILL BE "CHANCE"...QUITE A BIT
LOWER THAN SOME OF THE GUIDANCE.

THE UPPER TROUGH WILL FINALLY START TO LIFT OUT BY MONDAY AND THE
SURFACE LOW AND FRONT WILL COME EAST. THE TIMING IS STILL A BIT
UNCERTAIN. WILL HAVE AN INCREASING CHANCE OF SHOWERS/STORMS FROM
WEST TO EAST MONDAY AFTERNOON/EVENING. IF THE FRONT ARRIVES QUICKLY
ENOUGH THERE WOULD BE A CHANCE FOR SEVERE WEATHER. IF THE FRONT IS
SLOWER...SOME OF THE MODELS SUGGEST LATER MONDAY NIGHT...THEN NOT AS
MUCH OF A THREAT OF SEVERE STORMS. HIGHS MONDAY STILL ABOVE
GUIDANCE AS THE AIR MASS SHOULD STILL BE UNSEASONABLY WARM. HIGHS
GENERALLY 80 TO 85.

BREEZY/WINDY AND COOLER TUESDAY. THERE MIGHT BE A LINGERING SHOWER
EXTREME NE OH/NW PA EARLY. HIGHS CLOSER TO NORMAL...UPPER 60S AND
LOWER 70S.

&&

.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
UPPER LEVEL TROUGH WILL FINISH ROTATING EAST AND OUT OF THE AREA
DURING THIS FORECAST PERIOD. UPPER LEVEL RIDGE WILL QUICKLY FOLLOW.
SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD EAST ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES KEEPING
AN EXTENDED PERIOD OF DRY WEATHER GOING THROUGH THE END OF THE WORK
WEEK. A POTENT LITTLE POSITIVE VORTICITY MAXIMUM WILL PUSH EAST AND
BRING WITH IT A SWATCH OF MOISTURE INTO THE AREA FRIDAY EVENING. AT
THE SURFACE...A WARM FRONT WILL LIFT NORTH ACROSS THE AREA BY
SATURDAY MORNING SETTING UP A WARM SOUTHWEST FLOW INTO THE FORECAST
AREA ONCE AGAIN. THERE WILL BE A CHANCE FOR SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS LATE FRIDAY IN THE WEST AND OVER THE ENTIRE AREA ON
SATURDAY. MOISTURE PUSHES EAST ON SUNDAY AND AS OF RIGHT NOW APPEARS
THAT IT WILL BE DRY AND WARMER.

&&

.AVIATION /18Z SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
SOME ACTIVITY BEGINNING TO DEVELOP OVER SOUTHERN INDIANA EXTENDING
NORTHEAST INTO WEST CENTRAL OHIO. THIS ACTIVITY IS PROGGED TO MOVE
NORTHEAST TOWARD FINDLAY AND TOLEDO. WILL BE KEEPING AN EYE ON
THIS ACTIVITY FOR TIMING AND AREAL EXTENT. ANOTHER AREA OVER LAKE
ERIE SOUTH TO BETWEEN MANSFIELD AND AKRON CANTON MOVING EAST AT
THIS TIME. THIS ACTIVITY DEVELOPS AND QUICKLY WEAKENS SO NOT
EXPECTING TOO MUCH OUT OF THIS AT THIS TIME. SOME MIST MAY FORM
TOWARD SUNRISE BUT SHOULD NOT BE TO EXTENSIVE OR WORSE THAN MVFR.
MAINLY MID LEVEL CLOUDS ON SUNDAY. WINDS WILL DIMINISH THIS
AFTERNOON AND REMAIN FAIRLY LIGHT THROUGH THE PERIOD.

.OUTLOOK...NON VFR POSSIBLE IN SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS THROUGH
MONDAY NIGHT.

&&

.MARINE...
LAKE ERIE IS EXPECTED TO RELATIVELY QUIET THROUGH MONDAY AS WARM AIR
ADVECTION RIDES UP OVER THE LAKES COLD DOME THAT IS IN PLACE.
HOWEVER...COLD FRONT PUSHES EAST OF THE AREA AND GRADIENT INCREASES
OVER THE LAKE CAUSING WINDS TO INCREASE AS WELL. MAY NEED A SMALL
CRAFT ADVISORY MONDAY NIGHT AND TUESDAY. POSSIBLE GALE FORCE WINDS
MAY REACH THE EASTERN END OF THE LAKE TUESDAY AFTERNOON BUT COULD BE
BRIEF. SO WILL BE KEEPING AN EYE ON THAT PERIOD. WINDS GRADUALLY
DIMINISH TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS EAST
ACROSS THE LAKE.

&&

.CLE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OH...NONE.
PA...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

SYNOPSIS...KOSARIK
NEAR TERM...KOSARIK
SHORT TERM...KOSARIK
LONG TERM...LOMBARDY
AVIATION...LOMBARDY
MARINE...LOMBARDY

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CLEVELAND OH
359 PM EDT SAT MAY 9 2015

LEZ142>147-162>167-OHZ003-006>013-017>022-027>032-036>038-047-102000-
MAUMEE BAY TO RENO BEACH OH-RENO BEACH TO THE ISLANDS OH-
THE ISLANDS TO VERMILION OH-VERMILION TO AVON POINT OH-
AVON POINT TO WILLOWICK OH-WILLOWICK TO GENEVA-ON-THE LAKE OH-
LAKE ERIE OPEN WATERS FROM MAUMEE BAY TO RENO BEACH-
LAKE ERIE OPEN WATERS FROM RENO BEACH TO THE ISLANDS-
LAKE ERIE OPEN WATERS FROM THE ISLANDS TO VERMILION-
LAKE ERIE OPEN WATERS FROM VERMILION TO AVON POINT-
LAKE ERIE OPEN WATERS FROM AVON POINT TO WILLOWICK-
LAKE ERIE OPEN WATERS FROM WILLOWICK TO GENEVA-ON-THE-LAKE-LUCAS-
WOOD-OTTAWA-SANDUSKY-ERIE OH-LORAIN-CUYAHOGA-LAKE-GEAUGA-HANCOCK-
SENECA-HURON-MEDINA-SUMMIT-PORTAGE-WYANDOT-CRAWFORD-RICHLAND-ASHLAND-
WAYNE-STARK-MARION-MORROW-HOLMES-KNOX-
359 PM EDT SAT MAY 9 2015

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR LAKE ERIE...NORTH CENTRAL
OHIO...NORTHEAST OHIO AND NORTHWEST OHIO.

.DAY ONE...THIS AFTERNOON AND TONIGHT.

HAZARDOUS WEATHER IS NOT EXPECTED AT THIS TIME.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY.

THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ON MONDAY.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

SPOTTER ACTIVATION IS NOT EXPECTED AT THIS TIME.

LEZ061-148-149-168-169-OHZ014-023-033-089-PAZ001>003-102000-
LAKE ERIE OPEN WATERS FROM RIPLEY TO BUFFALO NY-GENEVA-ON-THE-
LAKE TO CONNEAUT OH-CONNEAUT OH TO RIPLEY NY-
LAKE ERIE OPEN WATERS FROM GENEVA-ON-THE-LAKE TO CONNEAUT-
LAKE ERIE OPEN WATERS FROM CONNEAUT OH TO RIPLEY NY-ASHTABULA INLAND-
TRUMBULL-MAHONING-ASHTABULA LAKESHORE-NORTHERN ERIE-SOUTHERN ERIE-
CRAWFORD PA-
359 PM EDT SAT MAY 9 2015

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR LAKE ERIE...NORTHEAST OHIO
AND NORTHWEST PENNSYLVANIA.

.DAY ONE...THIS AFTERNOON AND TONIGHT.

NO HAZARDOUS WEATHER IS EXPECTED AT THIS TIME.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY.

NO HAZARDOUS WEATHER IS EXPECTED AT THIS TIME.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

SPOTTER ACTIVATION IS NOT EXPECTED AT THIS TIME.