Alert archive / New York / Wind Chill Watches in 2015

Wind Chill Watch 4, NWS Buffalo, NY

February 21, 201516 counties in New York

NWS Buffalo, NY issued this wind chill watch at Feb 21, 2015, 3:09 PM EST for 16 counties in New York. It took effect at Feb 23, 2015, 12:00 AM EST. It was in force for .

The area

The counties it named.

The facts

Issued
Feb 21, 2015, 3:09 PM EST (20:09 UTC)
In effect from
Feb 23, 2015, 12:00 AM EST
Expired
Feb 22, 2015, 1:57 PM EST
In force
Issued by
NWS Buffalo, NY

Counties Allegany County, NY, Cattaraugus County, NY, Cayuga County, NY, Chautauqua County, NY, Erie County, NY, Genesee County, NY, Jefferson County, NY, Lewis County, NY, Livingston County, NY, Monroe County, NY, Niagara County, NY, Ontario County, NY, Orleans County, NY, Oswego County, NY, Wayne County, NY, Wyoming County, NY

The radar

The Buffalo radar (KBUF), 90 km from the middle of the area, began a volume at 20:08 UTC, the scan nearest the moment this went out.

Open the radar archive at this moment

The archived warnings, watches and discussions in force at that minute are drawn over the scan, this one among them.

The nearest sounding before it

Buffalo Intl Airport, NY (KBUF), launched 12:00Z, 8.2 hours before the alert went out and 87 km from the middle of its area. This is the routine balloon launch nearest before it, the air the forecaster had in hand, not a measurement taken for the alert.

Skew-T log-pSkew-T log-p diagram, Buffalo Intl Airport, NY at 12:00Z on 2015-02-21Temperature and dew point through the depth of the atmosphere, with the mixed-layer parcel. CAPE 0 joules per kilogram.LCL10008507005003002001001 km2 km3 km6 km9 km12 km15 km-30°-20°-10°10°20°30°40°
Temperature in red, dew point in green, the mixed-layer parcel dashed.
HodographHodograph, Buffalo Intl Airport, NY at 12:00Z on 2015-02-21The wind through the lowest 10 kilometers. Zero to 1 km storm-relative helicity 282 square meters per square second.1939587897117136156Sfc1 km3 km6 km9 kmRMLM
The wind turning with height, colored by layer: ground to 1 km, 1 to 3 km, 3 to 6 km, 6 to 10 km.
Mixed-layer CAPE
0 J/kg
Mixed-layer CIN
No buoyant parcel
Mixed-layer LCL
1805 m above ground
0-6 km bulk shear
68 kt
0-1 km storm-relative helicity
282 m²/s²
0-3 km storm-relative helicity
379 m²/s²
Significant tornado parameter
0.0
Supercell composite
0.0

Open this sounding in Storm Lab

The text

As transmitted, in the capitals the NWS used until 2016.

193 
WWUS41 KBUF 212009
WSWBUF

URGENT - WINTER WEATHER MESSAGE
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BUFFALO NY
309 PM EST SAT FEB 21 2015

NYZ006>008-220415-
/O.NEW.KBUF.WC.A.0004.150223T0500Z-150223T1700Z/
/O.CON.KBUF.WW.Y.0010.000000T0000Z-150222T1500Z/
OSWEGO-JEFFERSON-LEWIS-
INCLUDING THE CITIES OF...OSWEGO...WATERTOWN...LOWVILLE
309 PM EST SAT FEB 21 2015

...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 10 AM EST
SUNDAY...
...WIND CHILL WATCH IN EFFECT FROM LATE SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH
MONDAY MORNING...

THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN BUFFALO HAS ISSUED A WIND CHILL
WATCH...WHICH IS IN EFFECT FROM LATE SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY
MORNING. 

* LOCATIONS...EASTERN LAKE ONTARIO REGION.

* TIMING...SNOW THROUGH LATE TONIGHT...THEN AREAS OF FREEZING
  DRIZZLE LATE TONIGHT AND SUNDAY MORNING. DANGEROUS WIND CHILLS
  POSSIBLE LATE SUNDAY NIGHT AND MONDAY MORNING.

* HAZARDS...SNOW AND FREEZING DRIZZLE.

* ACCUMULATIONS...4 TO 7 INCHES IN OSWEGO AND SOUTHERN PORTIONS OF
  LEWIS COUNTY...WITH 2 TO 4 INCHES IN JEFFERSON AND NORTHERN
  PORTIONS OF LEWIS COUNTY. A TRACE OF ICE.

* VISIBILITIES...BELOW A HALF MILE AT TIMES.

* WIND CHILL VALUES...DROPPING TO 25 TO 35 BELOW.

* IMPACTS...SNOW AND FREEZING DRIZZLE WILL RESULT IN SLICK
  ROADWAYS AND HAZARDOUS TRAVEL CONDITIONS. SNOW WILL FALL THROUGH
  THE EARLY MORNING HOURS...WITH AREAS OF FREEZING DRIZZLE LATE
  TONIGHT AND SUNDAY MORNING. DANGEROUSLY COLD WIND CHILLS ARE
  POSSIBLE LATE SUNDAY NIGHT AND MONDAY MORNING. THIS COULD LEAD
  TO FROSTBITE AND HYPOTHERMIA IF YOU ARE NOT DRESSED PROPERLY.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

A WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY IS NORMALLY ISSUED FOR A VARIETY OF
WINTER WEATHER CONDITIONS SUCH AS LIGHT SNOW...BLOWING SNOW...
SLEET...FREEZING RAIN AND WIND CHILLS. WHILE THE WEATHER WILL BE
SIGNIFICANT...THE WORD ADVISORY IMPLIES THAT SEVERE WINTER
WEATHER IS NOT ANTICIPATED.

A WIND CHILL WATCH IS ISSUED WHEN STRONG WINDS WILL COMBINE WITH
COLD TEMPERATURES TO CREATE DANGEROUSLY COLD CONDITIONS FOR
EXPOSED SKIN. THE WIND WILL MAKE IT FEEL LIKE IT IS 15 DEGREES
BELOW ZERO OR COLDER FOR A PERIOD OF SEVERAL HOURS. IF YOU WILL
BE OUTDOORS USE COMMON SENSE AND DRESS WARMLY...MAKING SURE THAT
ALL EXPOSED SKIN IS COVERED. IF POSSIBLE...AVOID PROLONGED
EXPOSURE TO THE COLD TO PREVENT FROSTBITE AND HYPOTHERMIA.

STAY TUNED TO NOAA WEATHER RADIO OR YOUR FAVORITE SOURCE OF
WEATHER INFORMATION FOR THE LATEST UPDATES. ADDITIONAL DETAILS
CAN ALSO BE FOUND AT WWW.WEATHER.GOV/BUFFALO.

&&

$$

NYZ001-002-010>012-019>021-085-220415-
/O.NEW.KBUF.WC.A.0004.150223T0500Z-150223T1700Z/
/O.CON.KBUF.WW.Y.0010.000000T0000Z-150222T1500Z/
NIAGARA-ORLEANS-NORTHERN ERIE-GENESEE-WYOMING-CHAUTAUQUA-
CATTARAUGUS-ALLEGANY-SOUTHERN ERIE-
INCLUDING THE CITIES OF...NIAGARA FALLS...MEDINA...BUFFALO...
BATAVIA...WARSAW...JAMESTOWN...OLEAN...WELLSVILLE...
ORCHARD PARK...SPRINGVILLE
309 PM EST SAT FEB 21 2015

...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 10 AM EST
SUNDAY...
...WIND CHILL WATCH IN EFFECT FROM LATE SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH
MONDAY MORNING...

THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN BUFFALO HAS ISSUED A WIND CHILL
WATCH...WHICH IS IN EFFECT FROM LATE SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY
MORNING. 

* LOCATIONS...WESTERN NEW YORK.

* TIMING...SNOW THROUGH THIS EVENING...THEN AREAS OF FREEZING
  DRIZZLE AFTER MIDNIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY MORNING. DANGEROUS WIND
  CHILLS POSSIBLE LATE SUNDAY NIGHT AND MONDAY MORNING.

* HAZARDS...SNOW AND FREEZING DRIZZLE.

* ACCUMULATIONS...2 TO 5 INCHES...AND A TRACE OF ICE.

* VISIBILITIES...BELOW A MILE AT TIMES.

* WIND CHILL VALUES...DROPPING TO 25 TO 35 BELOW.

* IMPACTS...SNOW AND FREEZING DRIZZLE WILL RESULT IN SLICK
  ROADWAYS AND HAZARDOUS TRAVEL CONDITIONS. SNOW WILL FALL THROUGH
  THIS EVENING...WITH AREAS OF FREEZING DRIZZLE AFTER MIDNIGHT
  THROUGH SUNDAY MORNING. DANGEROUSLY COLD WIND CHILLS ARE POSSIBLE
  LATE SUNDAY NIGHT AND MONDAY MORNING. THIS COULD LEAD TO
  FROSTBITE AND HYPOTHERMIA IF YOU ARE NOT DRESSED PROPERLY.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

A WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY IS NORMALLY ISSUED FOR A VARIETY OF
WINTER WEATHER CONDITIONS SUCH AS LIGHT SNOW...BLOWING SNOW...
SLEET...FREEZING RAIN AND WIND CHILLS. WHILE THE WEATHER WILL BE
SIGNIFICANT...THE WORD ADVISORY IMPLIES THAT SEVERE WINTER
WEATHER IS NOT ANTICIPATED.

A WIND CHILL WATCH IS ISSUED WHEN STRONG WINDS WILL COMBINE WITH
COLD TEMPERATURES TO CREATE DANGEROUSLY COLD CONDITIONS FOR
EXPOSED SKIN. THE WIND WILL MAKE IT FEEL LIKE IT IS 15 DEGREES
BELOW ZERO OR COLDER FOR A PERIOD OF SEVERAL HOURS. IF YOU WILL
BE OUTDOORS USE COMMON SENSE AND DRESS WARMLY...MAKING SURE THAT
ALL EXPOSED SKIN IS COVERED. IF POSSIBLE...AVOID PROLONGED
EXPOSURE TO THE COLD TO PREVENT FROSTBITE AND HYPOTHERMIA.

STAY TUNED TO NOAA WEATHER RADIO OR YOUR FAVORITE SOURCE OF
WEATHER INFORMATION FOR THE LATEST UPDATES. ADDITIONAL DETAILS
CAN ALSO BE FOUND AT WWW.WEATHER.GOV/BUFFALO.

&&

$$

NYZ003>005-013-014-220415-
/O.NEW.KBUF.WC.A.0004.150223T0500Z-150223T1700Z/
MONROE-WAYNE-NORTHERN CAYUGA-LIVINGSTON-ONTARIO-
INCLUDING THE CITIES OF...ROCHESTER...NEWARK...FAIR HAVEN...
GENESEO...CANANDAIGUA
309 PM EST SAT FEB 21 2015

...WIND CHILL WATCH IN EFFECT FROM LATE SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH
MONDAY MORNING...

THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN BUFFALO HAS ISSUED A WIND CHILL
WATCH...WHICH IS IN EFFECT FROM LATE SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY
MORNING. 

* LOCATIONS...LOWER GENESEE VALLEY AND FINGER LAKES REGIONS.

* TIMING...LATE SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY MORNING.

* WIND CHILL VALUES...DROPPING 20 TO 30 BELOW.

* IMPACTS...DANGEROUSLY COLD WIND CHILLS ARE POSSIBLE LATE SUNDAY
  NIGHT AND MONDAY MORNING. THIS COULD LEAD TO FROSTBITE AND
  HYPOTHERMIA IF YOU ARE NOT DRESSED PROPERLY.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

A WIND CHILL WATCH IS ISSUED WHEN STRONG WINDS WILL COMBINE WITH
COLD TEMPERATURES TO CREATE DANGEROUSLY COLD CONDITIONS FOR
EXPOSED SKIN. THE WIND WILL MAKE IT FEEL LIKE IT IS 15 DEGREES
BELOW ZERO OR COLDER FOR A PERIOD OF SEVERAL HOURS. IF YOU WILL
BE OUTDOORS USE COMMON SENSE AND DRESS WARMLY...MAKING SURE THAT
ALL EXPOSED SKIN IS COVERED. IF POSSIBLE...AVOID PROLONGED
EXPOSURE TO THE COLD TO PREVENT FROSTBITE AND HYPOTHERMIA.

STAY TUNED TO NOAA WEATHER RADIO OR YOUR FAVORITE SOURCE OF
WEATHER INFORMATION FOR THE LATEST UPDATES. ADDITIONAL DETAILS
CAN ALSO BE FOUND AT WWW.WEATHER.GOV/BUFFALO.

&&

$$

APFFEL
5 follow-up statements
580 
WWUS41 KBUF 220310
WSWBUF

URGENT - WINTER WEATHER MESSAGE
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BUFFALO NY
1010 PM EST SAT FEB 21 2015

NYZ006>008-221115-
/O.CON.KBUF.WW.Y.0010.000000T0000Z-150222T1500Z/
/O.CON.KBUF.WC.A.0004.150223T0500Z-150223T1700Z/
OSWEGO-JEFFERSON-LEWIS-
INCLUDING THE CITIES OF...OSWEGO...WATERTOWN...LOWVILLE
1010 PM EST SAT FEB 21 2015

...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 10 AM EST
SUNDAY...
...WIND CHILL WATCH REMAINS IN EFFECT FROM LATE SUNDAY NIGHT
THROUGH MONDAY MORNING...

* LOCATIONS...EASTERN LAKE ONTARIO REGION.

* TIMING...THE WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY IS IN EFFECT THROUGH LATE 
  SUNDAY MORNING. THE WIND CHILL WATCH IS IN EFFECT FROM 
  MIDNIGHT MONDAY THROUGH LATE MONDAY MORNING.

* HAZARDS...SNOW AND FREEZING DRIZZLE.

* ACCUMULATIONS...AN INCH OR LESS OF SNOW OVERNIGHT AND AN INCH
  OR LESS SUNDAY. A TRACE OF FREEZING DRIZZLE.

* VISIBILITIES...AS LOW AS A HALF MILE AT TIMES.

* WIND CHILL VALUES...DROPPING TO 25 TO 35 BELOW.

* IMPACTS...SNOW AND FREEZING DRIZZLE WILL RESULT IN SLICK
  ROADWAYS AND HAZARDOUS TRAVEL CONDITIONS. SNOW WILL END
  OVERNIGHT...WITH AREAS OF FREEZING DRIZZLE POSSIBLE THROUGH
  SUNDAY MORNING. DANGEROUSLY COLD WIND CHILLS ARE POSSIBLE LATE
  SUNDAY NIGHT AND MONDAY MORNING. THIS COULD LEAD TO FROSTBITE
  AND HYPOTHERMIA IF YOU ARE NOT DRESSED PROPERLY.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

A WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY IS NORMALLY ISSUED FOR A VARIETY OF
WINTER WEATHER CONDITIONS SUCH AS LIGHT SNOW...BLOWING SNOW...
SLEET...FREEZING RAIN AND WIND CHILLS. WHILE THE WEATHER WILL BE
SIGNIFICANT...THE WORD ADVISORY IMPLIES THAT SEVERE WINTER
WEATHER IS NOT ANTICIPATED.

A WIND CHILL WATCH IS ISSUED WHEN STRONG WINDS WILL COMBINE WITH
COLD TEMPERATURES TO CREATE DANGEROUSLY COLD CONDITIONS FOR
EXPOSED SKIN. THE WIND WILL MAKE IT FEEL LIKE IT IS 15 DEGREES
BELOW ZERO OR COLDER FOR A PERIOD OF SEVERAL HOURS. IF YOU WILL
BE OUTDOORS USE COMMON SENSE AND DRESS WARMLY...MAKING SURE THAT
ALL EXPOSED SKIN IS COVERED. IF POSSIBLE...AVOID PROLONGED
EXPOSURE TO THE COLD TO PREVENT FROSTBITE AND HYPOTHERMIA.

STAY TUNED TO NOAA WEATHER RADIO OR YOUR FAVORITE SOURCE OF
WEATHER INFORMATION FOR THE LATEST UPDATES. ADDITIONAL DETAILS
CAN ALSO BE FOUND AT WWW.WEATHER.GOV/BUFFALO.

&&

$$

NYZ001-002-010>012-019>021-085-221115-
/O.CON.KBUF.WW.Y.0010.000000T0000Z-150222T1500Z/
/O.CON.KBUF.WC.A.0004.150223T0500Z-150223T1700Z/
NIAGARA-ORLEANS-NORTHERN ERIE-GENESEE-WYOMING-CHAUTAUQUA-
CATTARAUGUS-ALLEGANY-SOUTHERN ERIE-
INCLUDING THE CITIES OF...NIAGARA FALLS...MEDINA...BUFFALO...
BATAVIA...WARSAW...JAMESTOWN...OLEAN...WELLSVILLE...
ORCHARD PARK...SPRINGVILLE
1010 PM EST SAT FEB 21 2015

...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 10 AM EST
SUNDAY...
...WIND CHILL WATCH REMAINS IN EFFECT FROM LATE SUNDAY NIGHT
THROUGH MONDAY MORNING...

* LOCATIONS...WESTERN NEW YORK.

* TIMING...THE WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY IS IN EFFECT THROUGH LATE 
  SUNDAY MORNING. THE WIND CHILL WATCH IS IN EFFECT FROM 
  MIDNIGHT MONDAY THROUGH LATE MONDAY MORNING.

* HAZARDS...VERY LIGHT SNOW AND FREEZING DRIZZLE.

* ACCUMULATIONS...AN ADDITIONAL DUSTING OF SNOW. A TRACE OF ICE.

* VISIBILITIES...AS LOW AS A HALF MILE AT TIMES.

* WIND CHILL VALUES...DROPPING TO 25 TO 35 BELOW.

* IMPACTS...LIGHT SNOW AND FREEZING DRIZZLE WILL RESULT IN SLICK
  ROADWAYS AND HAZARDOUS TRAVEL CONDITIONS. DANGEROUSLY COLD WIND
  CHILLS ARE POSSIBLE LATE SUNDAY NIGHT AND MONDAY MORNING. THIS
  COULD LEAD TO FROSTBITE AND HYPOTHERMIA IF YOU ARE NOT DRESSED
  PROPERLY.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

A WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY IS NORMALLY ISSUED FOR A VARIETY OF
WINTER WEATHER CONDITIONS SUCH AS LIGHT SNOW...BLOWING SNOW...
SLEET...FREEZING RAIN AND WIND CHILLS. WHILE THE WEATHER WILL BE
SIGNIFICANT...THE WORD ADVISORY IMPLIES THAT SEVERE WINTER
WEATHER IS NOT ANTICIPATED.

A WIND CHILL WATCH IS ISSUED WHEN STRONG WINDS WILL COMBINE WITH
COLD TEMPERATURES TO CREATE DANGEROUSLY COLD CONDITIONS FOR
EXPOSED SKIN. THE WIND WILL MAKE IT FEEL LIKE IT IS 15 DEGREES
BELOW ZERO OR COLDER FOR A PERIOD OF SEVERAL HOURS. IF YOU WILL
BE OUTDOORS USE COMMON SENSE AND DRESS WARMLY...MAKING SURE THAT
ALL EXPOSED SKIN IS COVERED. IF POSSIBLE...AVOID PROLONGED
EXPOSURE TO THE COLD TO PREVENT FROSTBITE AND HYPOTHERMIA.

STAY TUNED TO NOAA WEATHER RADIO OR YOUR FAVORITE SOURCE OF
WEATHER INFORMATION FOR THE LATEST UPDATES. ADDITIONAL DETAILS
CAN ALSO BE FOUND AT WWW.WEATHER.GOV/BUFFALO.

&&

$$

NYZ003>005-013-014-221115-
/O.CON.KBUF.WC.A.0004.150223T0500Z-150223T1700Z/
MONROE-WAYNE-NORTHERN CAYUGA-LIVINGSTON-ONTARIO-
INCLUDING THE CITIES OF...ROCHESTER...NEWARK...FAIR HAVEN...
GENESEO...CANANDAIGUA
1010 PM EST SAT FEB 21 2015

...WIND CHILL WATCH REMAINS IN EFFECT FROM LATE SUNDAY NIGHT
THROUGH MONDAY MORNING...

* LOCATIONS...LOWER GENESEE VALLEY AND FINGER LAKES REGIONS.

* TIMING...FROM MIDNIGHT MONDAY THROUGH LATE MONDAY MORNING.

* WIND CHILL VALUES...AS LOW AS 30 BELOW.

* IMPACTS...DANGEROUSLY COLD WIND CHILLS ARE POSSIBLE LATE 
  SUNDAY NIGHT AND MONDAY MORNING. THIS COULD LEAD TO FROSTBITE 
  AND HYPOTHERMIA IF YOU ARE NOT DRESSED PROPERLY. 

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

A WIND CHILL WATCH IS ISSUED WHEN STRONG WINDS WILL COMBINE WITH
COLD TEMPERATURES TO CREATE DANGEROUSLY COLD CONDITIONS FOR
EXPOSED SKIN. THE WIND WILL MAKE IT FEEL LIKE IT IS 15 DEGREES
BELOW ZERO OR COLDER FOR A PERIOD OF SEVERAL HOURS. IF YOU WILL
BE OUTDOORS USE COMMON SENSE AND DRESS WARMLY...MAKING SURE THAT
ALL EXPOSED SKIN IS COVERED. IF POSSIBLE...AVOID PROLONGED
EXPOSURE TO THE COLD TO PREVENT FROSTBITE AND HYPOTHERMIA.

STAY TUNED TO NOAA WEATHER RADIO OR YOUR FAVORITE SOURCE OF
WEATHER INFORMATION FOR THE LATEST UPDATES. ADDITIONAL DETAILS
CAN ALSO BE FOUND AT WWW.WEATHER.GOV/BUFFALO.

&&

$$

THOMAS
654 
WWUS41 KBUF 220830
WSWBUF

URGENT - WINTER WEATHER MESSAGE
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BUFFALO NY
330 AM EST SUN FEB 22 2015

NYZ001-002-006>008-010>012-019>021-085-221630-
/O.CAN.KBUF.WW.Y.0010.000000T0000Z-150222T1500Z/
/O.CON.KBUF.WC.A.0004.150223T0500Z-150223T1700Z/
NIAGARA-ORLEANS-OSWEGO-JEFFERSON-LEWIS-NORTHERN ERIE-GENESEE-
WYOMING-CHAUTAUQUA-CATTARAUGUS-ALLEGANY-SOUTHERN ERIE-
INCLUDING THE CITIES OF...NIAGARA FALLS...MEDINA...OSWEGO...
WATERTOWN...LOWVILLE...BUFFALO...BATAVIA...WARSAW...JAMESTOWN...
OLEAN...WELLSVILLE...ORCHARD PARK...SPRINGVILLE
330 AM EST SUN FEB 22 2015

...WIND CHILL WATCH REMAINS IN EFFECT FROM LATE TONIGHT THROUGH
MONDAY MORNING...
...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY IS CANCELLED...

THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN BUFFALO HAS CANCELLED THE WINTER
WEATHER ADVISORY. 

* LOCATIONS...ALL OF WESTERN AND NORTH CENTRAL NEW YORK.

* TIMING...FROM MIDNIGHT TONIGHT THROUGH LATE MONDAY MORNING.

* WIND CHILL VALUES...AS LOW AS 25 TO 35 BELOW ZERO.

* IMPACTS...DANGEROUSLY COLD WIND CHILLS ARE POSSIBLE LATE SUNDAY
  NIGHT AND MONDAY MORNING. THIS COULD LEAD TO FROSTBITE AND
  HYPOTHERMIA IF YOU ARE NOT DRESSED PROPERLY.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

A WIND CHILL WATCH IS ISSUED WHEN STRONG WINDS WILL COMBINE WITH
COLD TEMPERATURES TO CREATE DANGEROUSLY COLD CONDITIONS FOR
EXPOSED SKIN. THE WIND WILL MAKE IT FEEL LIKE IT IS 15 DEGREES
BELOW ZERO OR COLDER FOR A PERIOD OF SEVERAL HOURS. IF YOU WILL
BE OUTDOORS USE COMMON SENSE AND DRESS WARMLY...MAKING SURE THAT
ALL EXPOSED SKIN IS COVERED. IF POSSIBLE...AVOID PROLONGED
EXPOSURE TO THE COLD TO PREVENT FROSTBITE AND HYPOTHERMIA.

&&

$$

NYZ003>005-013-014-221630-
/O.CON.KBUF.WC.A.0004.150223T0500Z-150223T1700Z/
MONROE-WAYNE-NORTHERN CAYUGA-LIVINGSTON-ONTARIO-
INCLUDING THE CITIES OF...ROCHESTER...NEWARK...FAIR HAVEN...
GENESEO...CANANDAIGUA
330 AM EST SUN FEB 22 2015

...WIND CHILL WATCH REMAINS IN EFFECT FROM LATE TONIGHT THROUGH
MONDAY MORNING...

* LOCATIONS...LOWER GENESEE VALLEY AND FINGER LAKES REGIONS.

* TIMING...FROM MIDNIGHT TONIGHT THROUGH LATE MONDAY MORNING.

* WIND CHILL VALUES...AS LOW AS 30 BELOW ZERO.

* IMPACTS...DANGEROUSLY COLD WIND CHILLS ARE POSSIBLE LATE 
  SUNDAY NIGHT AND MONDAY MORNING. THIS COULD LEAD TO FROSTBITE 
  AND HYPOTHERMIA IF YOU ARE NOT DRESSED PROPERLY. 

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

A WIND CHILL WATCH IS ISSUED WHEN STRONG WINDS WILL COMBINE WITH
COLD TEMPERATURES TO CREATE DANGEROUSLY COLD CONDITIONS FOR
EXPOSED SKIN. THE WIND WILL MAKE IT FEEL LIKE IT IS 15 DEGREES
BELOW ZERO OR COLDER FOR A PERIOD OF SEVERAL HOURS. IF YOU WILL
BE OUTDOORS USE COMMON SENSE AND DRESS WARMLY...MAKING SURE THAT
ALL EXPOSED SKIN IS COVERED. IF POSSIBLE...AVOID PROLONGED
EXPOSURE TO THE COLD TO PREVENT FROSTBITE AND HYPOTHERMIA.

&&

$$
400 
WWUS41 KBUF 221134
WSWBUF

URGENT - WINTER WEATHER MESSAGE
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BUFFALO NY
634 AM EST SUN FEB 22 2015

NYZ001>008-010>014-019>021-085-221945-
/O.EXT.KBUF.WC.A.0004.150223T0500Z-150224T1800Z/
NIAGARA-ORLEANS-MONROE-WAYNE-NORTHERN CAYUGA-OSWEGO-JEFFERSON-
LEWIS-NORTHERN ERIE-GENESEE-WYOMING-LIVINGSTON-ONTARIO-CHAUTAUQUA-
CATTARAUGUS-ALLEGANY-SOUTHERN ERIE-
INCLUDING THE CITIES OF...NIAGARA FALLS...MEDINA...ROCHESTER...
NEWARK...FAIR HAVEN...OSWEGO...WATERTOWN...LOWVILLE...BUFFALO...
BATAVIA...WARSAW...GENESEO...CANANDAIGUA...JAMESTOWN...OLEAN...
WELLSVILLE...ORCHARD PARK...SPRINGVILLE
634 AM EST SUN FEB 22 2015

...WIND CHILL WATCH NOW IN EFFECT FROM LATE TONIGHT THROUGH
TUESDAY AFTERNOON...

* LOCATIONS...ALL OF WESTERN AND NORTH CENTRAL NEW YORK.

* TIMING...FROM MIDNIGHT TONIGHT THROUGH EARLY TUESDAY AFTERNOON.

* WIND CHILL VALUES...AS LOW AS 25 TO 35 BELOW ZERO.

* IMPACTS...DANGEROUSLY COLD WIND CHILLS COULD LEAD TO FROSTBITE
  AND HYPOTHERMIA IF YOU ARE NOT DRESSED PROPERLY. ALSO PLAN AHEAD
  WITH AN EMERGENCY TRAVEL KIT IN YOUR VEHICLE CONTAINING EXTRA
  CLOTHES OR BLANKETS IN CASE YOU BECOME STRANDED.


PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

A WIND CHILL WATCH IS ISSUED WHEN STRONG WINDS WILL COMBINE WITH
COLD TEMPERATURES TO CREATE DANGEROUSLY COLD CONDITIONS FOR
EXPOSED SKIN. THE WIND WILL MAKE IT FEEL LIKE IT IS 15 DEGREES
BELOW ZERO OR COLDER FOR A PERIOD OF SEVERAL HOURS. IF YOU WILL
BE OUTDOORS USE COMMON SENSE AND DRESS WARMLY...MAKING SURE THAT
ALL EXPOSED SKIN IS COVERED. IF POSSIBLE...AVOID PROLONGED
EXPOSURE TO THE COLD TO PREVENT FROSTBITE AND HYPOTHERMIA.

&&

$$
847 
WWUS41 KBUF 221629
WSWBUF

URGENT - WINTER WEATHER MESSAGE
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BUFFALO NY
1129 AM EST SUN FEB 22 2015

NYZ001>008-010>014-019>021-085-230030-
/O.CON.KBUF.WC.A.0004.150223T0500Z-150224T1800Z/
NIAGARA-ORLEANS-MONROE-WAYNE-NORTHERN CAYUGA-OSWEGO-JEFFERSON-
LEWIS-NORTHERN ERIE-GENESEE-WYOMING-LIVINGSTON-ONTARIO-CHAUTAUQUA-
CATTARAUGUS-ALLEGANY-SOUTHERN ERIE-
INCLUDING THE CITIES OF...NIAGARA FALLS...MEDINA...ROCHESTER...
NEWARK...FAIR HAVEN...OSWEGO...WATERTOWN...LOWVILLE...BUFFALO...
BATAVIA...WARSAW...GENESEO...CANANDAIGUA...JAMESTOWN...OLEAN...
WELLSVILLE...ORCHARD PARK...SPRINGVILLE
1129 AM EST SUN FEB 22 2015

...WIND CHILL WATCH REMAINS IN EFFECT FROM LATE TONIGHT THROUGH
TUESDAY AFTERNOON...

* LOCATIONS...ALL OF WESTERN AND NORTH CENTRAL NEW YORK.

* TIMING...FROM MIDNIGHT TONIGHT THROUGH EARLY TUESDAY AFTERNOON.

* WIND CHILL VALUES...AS LOW AS 25 TO 35 BELOW ZERO.

* IMPACTS...DANGEROUSLY COLD WIND CHILLS COULD LEAD TO FROSTBITE 
  AND HYPOTHERMIA IF YOU ARE NOT DRESSED PROPERLY. ALSO PLAN 
  AHEAD WITH AN EMERGENCY TRAVEL KIT IN YOUR VEHICLE CONTAINING 
  EXTRA CLOTHES OR BLANKETS IN CASE YOU BECOME STRANDED. 

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

A WIND CHILL WATCH IS ISSUED WHEN STRONG WINDS WILL COMBINE WITH
COLD TEMPERATURES TO CREATE DANGEROUSLY COLD CONDITIONS FOR
EXPOSED SKIN. THE WIND WILL MAKE IT FEEL LIKE IT IS 15 DEGREES
BELOW ZERO OR COLDER FOR A PERIOD OF SEVERAL HOURS. IF YOU WILL
BE OUTDOORS USE COMMON SENSE AND DRESS WARMLY...MAKING SURE THAT
ALL EXPOSED SKIN IS COVERED. IF POSSIBLE...AVOID PROLONGED
EXPOSURE TO THE COLD TO PREVENT FROSTBITE AND HYPOTHERMIA.

&&

$$
252 
WWUS41 KBUF 221857
WSWBUF

URGENT - WINTER WEATHER MESSAGE
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BUFFALO NY
157 PM EST SUN FEB 22 2015

NYZ001-010>014-019>021-085-230400-
/O.UPG.KBUF.WC.A.0004.150223T0500Z-150224T1800Z/
/O.NEW.KBUF.WC.W.0005.150223T0600Z-150224T1200Z/
NIAGARA-NORTHERN ERIE-GENESEE-WYOMING-LIVINGSTON-ONTARIO-
CHAUTAUQUA-CATTARAUGUS-ALLEGANY-SOUTHERN ERIE-
INCLUDING THE CITIES OF...NIAGARA FALLS...BUFFALO...BATAVIA...
WARSAW...GENESEO...CANANDAIGUA...JAMESTOWN...OLEAN...WELLSVILLE...
ORCHARD PARK...SPRINGVILLE
157 PM EST SUN FEB 22 2015

...WIND CHILL WARNING IN EFFECT FROM 1 AM MONDAY TO 7 AM EST
TUESDAY...

THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN BUFFALO HAS ISSUED A WIND CHILL
WARNING...WHICH IS IN EFFECT FROM 1 AM MONDAY TO 7 AM EST
TUESDAY. THE WIND CHILL WATCH IS NO LONGER IN EFFECT. 

* LOCATIONS...MOST OF WESTERN NEW YORK...EXCEPT AREAS ALONG THE
  LAKE ONTARIO SHORELINE.

* TIMING...LATE TONIGHT THROUGH EARLY TUESDAY MORNING.

* WINDS...10 TO 20 MPH.

* WIND CHILL VALUES...DROPPING TO 25 TO 35 BELOW.

* IMPACTS...DANGEROUSLY COLD WIND CHILLS COULD LEAD TO FROSTBITE 
  AND HYPOTHERMIA IF YOU ARE NOT DRESSED PROPERLY. ALSO PLAN 
  AHEAD WITH AN EMERGENCY TRAVEL KIT IN YOUR VEHICLE CONTAINING 
  EXTRA CLOTHES OR BLANKETS IN CASE YOU BECOME STRANDED. 

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

A WIND CHILL WARNING IS ISSUED WHEN A STRONG WIND WILL COMBINE
WITH COLD TEMPERATURES TO CREATE DANGEROUSLY COLD CONDITIONS FOR
EXPOSED SKIN. THE WIND WILL MAKE IT FEEL LIKE IT IS 25 DEGREES
BELOW ZERO OR COLDER FOR SEVERAL HOURS. THOSE PLANNING TO VENTURE
OUTDOORS SHOULD USE COMMON SENSE AND DRESS WARMLY.

STAY TUNED TO NOAA WEATHER RADIO OR YOUR FAVORITE SOURCE OF
WEATHER INFORMATION FOR THE LATEST UPDATES. ADDITIONAL DETAILS
CAN ALSO BE FOUND AT WWW.WEATHER.GOV/BUFFALO.

&&

$$

NYZ006>008-230400-
/O.UPG.KBUF.WC.A.0004.150223T0500Z-150224T1800Z/
/O.NEW.KBUF.WC.W.0005.150223T0600Z-150224T1200Z/
OSWEGO-JEFFERSON-LEWIS-
INCLUDING THE CITIES OF...OSWEGO...WATERTOWN...LOWVILLE
157 PM EST SUN FEB 22 2015

...WIND CHILL WARNING IN EFFECT FROM 1 AM MONDAY TO 7 AM EST
TUESDAY...

THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN BUFFALO HAS ISSUED A WIND CHILL
WARNING...WHICH IS IN EFFECT FROM 1 AM MONDAY TO 7 AM EST
TUESDAY. THE WIND CHILL WATCH IS NO LONGER IN EFFECT. 

* LOCATIONS...EASTERN LAKE ONTARIO REGION.

* TIMING...LATE TONIGHT THROUGH EARLY TUESDAY MORNING.

* WINDS...10 TO 15 MPH.

* WIND CHILL VALUES...DROPPING TO 25 TO 35 BELOW.

* IMPACTS...DANGEROUSLY COLD WIND CHILLS COULD LEAD TO FROSTBITE 
  AND HYPOTHERMIA IF YOU ARE NOT DRESSED PROPERLY. ALSO PLAN 
  AHEAD WITH AN EMERGENCY TRAVEL KIT IN YOUR VEHICLE CONTAINING 
  EXTRA CLOTHES OR BLANKETS IN CASE YOU BECOME STRANDED. 

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

A WIND CHILL WARNING IS ISSUED WHEN A STRONG WIND WILL COMBINE
WITH COLD TEMPERATURES TO CREATE DANGEROUSLY COLD CONDITIONS FOR
EXPOSED SKIN. THE WIND WILL MAKE IT FEEL LIKE IT IS 25 DEGREES
BELOW ZERO OR COLDER FOR SEVERAL HOURS. THOSE PLANNING TO VENTURE
OUTDOORS SHOULD USE COMMON SENSE AND DRESS WARMLY.

STAY TUNED TO NOAA WEATHER RADIO OR YOUR FAVORITE SOURCE OF
WEATHER INFORMATION FOR THE LATEST UPDATES. ADDITIONAL DETAILS
CAN ALSO BE FOUND AT WWW.WEATHER.GOV/BUFFALO.

&&

$$

NYZ002>005-230400-
/O.UPG.KBUF.WC.A.0004.150223T0500Z-150224T1800Z/
/O.NEW.KBUF.WC.Y.0009.150223T0600Z-150224T1200Z/
ORLEANS-MONROE-WAYNE-NORTHERN CAYUGA-
INCLUDING THE CITIES OF...MEDINA...ROCHESTER...NEWARK...
FAIR HAVEN
157 PM EST SUN FEB 22 2015

...WIND CHILL ADVISORY IN EFFECT FROM 1 AM MONDAY TO 7 AM EST
TUESDAY...

THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN BUFFALO HAS ISSUED A WIND CHILL
ADVISORY...WHICH IS IN EFFECT FROM 1 AM MONDAY TO 7 AM EST
TUESDAY. THE WIND CHILL WATCH IS NO LONGER IN EFFECT. 

* LOCATIONS...ORLEANS...MONROE...WAYNE...AND NORTHERN CAYUGA COUNTIES.

* TIMING...LATE TONIGHT THROUGH EARLY TUESDAY MORNING.

* WINDS...10 TO 20 MPH.

* WIND CHILL VALUES...DROPPING TO 20 BELOW.

* IMPACTS...DANGEROUSLY COLD WIND CHILLS COULD LEAD TO FROSTBITE 
  AND HYPOTHERMIA IF YOU ARE NOT DRESSED PROPERLY. ALSO PLAN 
  AHEAD WITH AN EMERGENCY TRAVEL KIT IN YOUR VEHICLE CONTAINING 
  EXTRA CLOTHES OR BLANKETS IN CASE YOU BECOME STRANDED. 

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

A WIND CHILL ADVISORY IS ISSUED WHEN STRONG WIND WILL COMBINE
WITH COLD TEMPERATURES TO CREATE DANGEROUSLY COLD CONDITIONS FOR
EXPOSED SKIN. THE WIND WILL MAKE IT FEEL LIKE IT IS 15 DEGREES
BELOW ZERO OR COLDER FOR A PERIOD OF SEVERAL HOURS. IF YOU WILL
BE OUTDOORS USE COMMON SENSE AND DRESS WARMLY...MAKING SURE THAT
ALL EXPOSED SKIN IS COVERED. IF POSSIBLE...AVOID PROLONGED
EXPOSURE TO THE COLD TO PREVENT FROSTBITE AND HYPOTHERMIA.

STAY TUNED TO NOAA WEATHER RADIO OR YOUR FAVORITE SOURCE OF
WEATHER INFORMATION FOR THE LATEST UPDATES. ADDITIONAL DETAILS
CAN ALSO BE FOUND AT WWW.WEATHER.GOV/BUFFALO.

&&

$$

APFFEL

What forecasters said that day

The local office's own words before this wind chill watch went out, as it sent them, from the Iowa Environmental Mesonet's archive of National Weather Service text.

NWS Buffalo, NY wrote its last area forecast discussion before this wind chill watch went out at Feb 21, 1:38 PM EST, 1 hour 31 minutes earlier.

Area forecast discussion, Feb 21, 1:38 PM EST, 1 hour 31 minutes before
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BUFFALO NY
138 PM EST SAT FEB 21 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
AN ELONGATED AREA OF LOW PRESSURE WILL CROSS THE GREAT LAKES
BRINGING WIDESPREAD...MAINLY LIGHT...SNOWFALL TO THE REGION
THROUGH THIS EVENING. AREAS OF FREEZING DRIZZLE WILL BE POSSIBLE
IN THE WAKE OF THE SYSTEM LATER TONIGHT INTO SUNDAY BEFORE
TEMPERATURES PLUNGE SUNDAY NIGHT AS ANOTHER ARCTIC FRONT SWEEPS
ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES...BRINGING POTENTIALLY RECORD BREAKING COLD
ALONG WITH LAKE EFFECT SNOW SHOWERS BY MONDAY. WHILE MONDAY WILL
BE THE COLDEST DAY OF THE PERIOD...TEMPERATURES ARE EXPECTED TO
REMAIN BELOW AVERAGE THROUGH NEXT WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
AT 100 PM...RADAR SHOWS SNOW HAS OVERSPREAD THE REMAINDER OF THE
REGION WITH THE STEADIEST SNOW BETWEEN ROCHESTER AND WATERTOWN.
THIS IS PROBABLY ASSOCIATED WITH A SLUG OF WARM AIR ADVECTION
WITH A SOUTHERLY 40 KT 925MB FLOW. THIS WILL CONTINUE TO LIFT NE
THROUGH THIS AFTERNOON. BEHIND THIS...IS A LULL IN THE
ACTION...WITH RADAR SHOWING ONLY LIGHT RETURNS. THIS LULL WILL
ONLY LAST A COUPLE HOURS...WITH RADAR SHOWING A LINE OF STEADIER
SNOW BEHIND THIS...EXTENDING FROM LAKE ERIE TO WESTERN LAKE
ONTARIO. THE SOUTHWESTERLY MID-UPPER LEVEL FLOW WILL PUSH THIS
AREA EAST ACROSS WESTERN NEW YORK LATE AFTERNOON AND INTO THIS
EVENING. THIS WILL RESULT IN ANOTHER BURST OF SNOWFALL DURING THIS
TIME. LATEST RUNS OF THE HRRR CAPTURE THIS WELL...WITH OTHER
HIGH RESOLUTION GUIDANCE HINTING AT THIS BREAK TO A LESSER EXTENT.

THERE ARE ALSO SOME MESOSCALE FEATURES IN PLAY. DOWNSLOPING HAS
LIMITED SNOWFALL RATES IMMEDIATELY NE OF THE CHAUTAUQUA
RIDGE...WITH A ENHANCED SNOWFALL RATES ACROSS THE NIAGARA FRONTIER
NEAR LAKE ONTARIO. SINCE...THE STRONGER SOUTHERLY FLOW HAS SHIFTED
EAST WITH THIS EXPECTED TO HAVE LITTLE IMPACT FOR THE REMAINDER OF
THE AFTERNOON HOURS. HOWEVER...AS THE SOUTHERLY FLOW INCREASES
ACROSS EASTERN PORTIONS OF THE CWA...MOST HIGH RESOLUTION GUIDANCE
SHOWS SIGNIFICANT UPSLOPING ON THE SOUTH FACE OF THE TUG HILL.
WHILE THIS IS SOMETIMES OVERDONE...IT APPEARS REASONABLE THIS TIME
WITH A SATURATED BOUNDARY LAYER AND RADAR CURRENTLY SHOWING THIS
ENHANCEMENT. THESE MESOSCALE FEATURES WILL HAVE AN IMPACT ON SNOW
AMOUNTS. IN THE ADVISORY AREA...EXPECT MOST AREAS TO GET 2 TO 4
INCHES OF SNOW...WITH 1 TO 3 INCHES ACROSS THE GENESEE VALLEY.
LOCALIZED AMOUNTS OF A BIT MORE ARE LIKELY IN NIAGARA COUNTY. THE
GREATEST AMOUNTS WILL PROBABLY BE IN OSWEGO AND SOUTHERN LEWIS
COUNTIES WHERE 4 TO 7 INCHES OF SNOW IS EXPECTED.

SNOW WILL TAPER OFF FROM WEST TO EAST AS THE UPPER LEVEL JET AND
DEEPER MOISTURE TRANSLATES TO THE EAST COAST. EVEN AS THE DEEPER
MID-LEVEL MOISTURE IS STRIPPED OUT...WEAK ASCENT DUE TO
APPROACHING MID/UPPER LEVEL TROUGHING ALONG WITH WESTERLY UPSLOPE
FLOW MAY RESULT IN A TRANSITION FROM LINGERING SNOW SHOWERS TO
AREAS OF FREEZING DRIZZLE LATER ON TONIGHT...PARTICULARLY ACROSS
UPSLOPE AREAS OF WESTERN NEW YORK AND EVENTUALLY THE NORTH
COUNTRY. IN ADDITION TO THE SNOW...A WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY IS IN
PLACE FOR THIS POTENTIAL. FORECAST CONFIDENCE IN FREEZING DRIZZLE
IS MARGINAL...WITH FORECAST SOUNDINGS SUPPORTING FREEZING DRIZZLE
IF PRECIPITATION OCCURS...BUT STILL SOME UNCERTAINTY IF THE FLOW
WILL BE STRONG ENOUGH TO GENERATE ANY PRECIPITATION.

TEMPERATURES WILL RISE INTO THE 20S TODAY...WHICH WILL PROBABLY
FEEL QUITE WARM TO MANY GIVEN THE COLD WEATHER OF LATE. EVEN AS
THE ELONGATED TROUGH PASSES TO OUR EAST TONIGHT...THERE WILL BE
ONLY MODEST COLD AIR ADVECTION WITH OVERNIGHT LOWS IN THE TEENS.

&&

.SHORT TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT/...
SUNDAY WILL START OFF WITH WITH BROAD CYCLONIC FLOW ALOFT AND A COLD
AIR ADVECTION REGIME BEHIND THE DEPARTING SURFACE LOW. FORECAST
SOUNDINGS INDICATE THAT MID-LEVEL DRY AIR WILL BE IN PLACE ACROSS
WESTERN AND CENTRAL NEW YORK...WITH PLENTIFUL LOW-LEVEL MOISTURE IN
THE WESTERLY FLOW. LOW-LEVEL TEMPERATURES ARE PROGGED TO BE IN THE
-4 TO -10C RANGE AND SATURATED...WITH WITH DRY AIR IN PLACE IN THE
MID-LEVEL...TYPICAL OF A FREEZING DRIZZLE SOUNDING. EXPECT AREAS OF
FREEZING DRIZZLE WITH A CHANCE FOR SOME LIGHT SNOW/FLURRIES MIXED IN
A TIMES....ESPECIALLY ALONG THE UPSLOPE AREAS OF THE WESTERN
SOUTHERN TIER AND THE TUG HILL AREA. BY THE AFTERNOON...THE FREEZING
DRIZZLE CHANCES SHOULD RAPIDLY COME TO AN END AS COLDER AIR
CONTINUES TO ADVECT INTO THE AREA...PUSHING THE LOW-LEVEL
TEMPERATURES INTO THE DENDRITIC GROWTH TEMPERATURE RANGE...ALLOWING
FOR A CHANGE OVER TO SNOW ACROSS THE AREA.

TEMPERATURES ON SUNDAY WILL BE FAIRLY STAGNANT IN THE LOW 20S
THROUGH THE MORNING...THEN WILL START TO FALL THROUGH THE AFTERNOON
AS THE TRUE ARCTIC SOURCED AIR FINALLY STARTS TO PUSH INTO WESTERN
NEW YORK. THE BOTTOM WILL FALL OUT SUNDAY EVENING AS TEMPERATURES
PLUNGE TOWARD ZERO BY MIDNIGHT AS THE CORE OF THE -24C TO -30C 850
MB AIR ARRIVES. ACCOMPANYING THE ARCTIC FRONT...WILL BE SOME
INCREASED WINDS AS THE PRESSURE GRADIENT TIGHTENS BETWEEN AN
IMPRESSIVE 1049MB HIGH OVER THE CENTRAL CONUS AND THE 999MB LOW OVER
NEW BRUNSWICK. THE COMBINATION OF TEMPERATURES PLUNGING AND STEADY
WINDS IN THE CAA ACROSS THE AREA WILL LIKELY PROMPT ANOTHER PERIOD
OF BITTER WIND CHILLS THAT WILL EVENTUALLY NEED HEADLINES ONCE
CONFIDENCE ON THE MAGNITUDE OF THE WIND CHILLS IMPROVES.

LAKE EFFECT SNOW POTENTIAL OFF OF LAKE ONTARIO...
ONCE THE ARCTIC AIR STARTS WORKING ACROSS THE LAKE SUNDAY AFTERNOON
AND EVENING...LAKE EFFECT SNOWS WILL PICK UP ALONG THE SOUTHEAST
SHORE. LAKE PARAMETERS SHOW THE EQUILIBRIUM LEVELS RISING TO 5-8KFT
LATE SUNDAY...THEN PICKING UP OVERNIGHT TO 10KFT OR SO BY MONDAY
MORNING...BEFORE THE CAPPING INVERSION QUICKLY LOWERS LATE MONDAY
AFTERNOON WITH RISING HEIGHTS / SUBSIDENCE UNDER THE BUILDING RIDGE.
THE MEAN NORTHWEST FLOW DURING THIS TIME PERIOD WILL CONCENTRATE THE
HEAVIEST LAKE SNOWS FROM EASTERN NIAGARA COUNTY ACROSS TO SOUTHWEST
OSWEGO COUNTY...SIMILAR TO THE MOST RECENT LAKE EFFECT EVENT. EXPECT
THE HIGHEST SNOW ACCUMULATIONS WILL BE IMMEDIATELY ALONG THE LAKE
SHORE...AND WILL TAPER OFF QUICKLY INLAND...DUE TO THE MULTIBANDED
STRUCTURE AND THE REDUCED FETCH DUE SOME ICE COVER ON LAKE ONTARIO.
SHOULD THESE LAKE PARAMETERS HOLD...ADVISORY HEADLINES MAY
EVENTUALLY BE NEEDED MAINLY FOR LOCATIONS IMMEDIATELY ALONG THE LAKE
SHORE.

TEMPERATURES ON MONDAY...
FORECAST CONFIDENCE IS HIGH IN ANOTHER ROUND OF POTENTIALLY RECORD
SETTING COLD AIR FOR MONDAY. GLOBAL MODELS AND THEIR ENSEMBLES ARE
IN EXCELLENT AGREEMENT ON A STRONG 500 MB LOW PASSING NORTH OF NEW
YORK DURING THE DAY MONDAY. NAEFS PERCENTILES SHOW FORECAST 850 MB
TEMPERATURES ONCE AGAIN REACH RECORD VALUES FOR THE 1979-2009
CLIMATE PERIOD. THIS WILL TRANSLATE TO LOW TEMPERATURES MONDAY
MORNING AND AGAIN TUESDAY MORNING RANGING FROM AROUND 0 NEAR LAKE
ONTARIO TO TEENS BELOW ZERO AWAY FROM THE LAKE. HIGH TEMPERATURES ON
MONDAY WILL LIKELY REMAIN WITHIN A FEW DEGREES EITHER SIDE OF 0.

&&

.LONG TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
WHILE TEMPERATURES DURING THIS PERIOD WILL NOT BE AS BRUTAL AS THEY
HAVE BEEN IN RECENT DAYS...THE PRESENCE OF A DEEP LONGWAVE TROUGH
OVER NORTH AMERICA WITH A CONTINUED FLOW OUT OF THE CANADIAN ARCTIC
WILL KEEP OUR MERCURY AT BELOW NORMAL LEVELS.

A MODERATING SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW BETWEEN HIGH PRESSURE TO OUR SOUTH
AND LOW PRESSURE APPROACHING FROM THE NORTHWEST WILL BRING ANOTHER
SLIGHT WARM-UP WITH HIGH TEMPS BUMPING THE 20 DEGREE MARK IN SOME
SPOTS UPPER TEENS ELSEWHERE.

THE LOW TO THE NORTHWEST WILL BRING ANOTHER ROUND OF SNOW TUESDAY
EVENING THROUGH MUCH OF WEDNESDAY. THERE MAY BE A MODERATE TO
BRIEFLY HEAVY SNOW WITH THE PASSAGE OF AN ARCTIC FRONT ACCOMPANYING
THE LOW. OTHERWISE...SNOW SHOULD BE LIGHT IN NATURE AND NOT POSE
MUCH MORE THAN A FEW INCHES OF ACCUMULATION.

THE COLDER AIR FOLLOWING THE LOW WILL NOT BE NEARLY AS COLD AS IN
RECENT EVENTS. 850MB TEMPS DO FALL TO ABOUT -24C OVER LAKE ONTARIO
ON WEDNESDAY NIGHT AND THURSDAY...AND WITH A WELL ALIGNED WESTERLY
WIND WILL PRODUCE A BAND OF LAKE EFFECT SNOW ALONG THE SOUTH SHORE
INLAND TO CENTRAL NY.

SPRAWLING HIGH PRESSURE CENTERED OVER THE UPPER PLAINS TO
BREADBASKET PROVINCES WILL BUILD EASTWARD ACROSS THE REGION ON
THURSDAY NIGHT AND FRIDAY. THIS WILL DRYING AND SUBSIDENCE TO THE
AREA WITH AN END OF THE LAKE EFFECT AND MORE SUNSHINE...EVEN THE
OPPORTUNITY FOR A WARMING TREND.

&&

.AVIATION /18Z SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
THERE WILL BE TW0 BANDS OF LIGHT SNOW WHICH MOVE ACROSS THE REGION
TODAY. THE FIRST EXTENDS FROM R0C-ART AT 18Z WITH THIS FORECAST TO
CONTINUE TO LIFT TO THE NE THROUGH THIS AFTERNOON. BEHIND THIS
WILL BE A BRIEF LULL IN SNOWFALL RATES...FOLLOWED BY ANOTHER BAND
OF STEADIER SNOW LATE AFTERNOON AND INTO THIS EVENING. IN STEADIER
SNOWS...EXPECT IFR OR LOWER CONDITIONS WITH VSBY AVERAGING AROUND
1SM. AFTER THIS...THE MID-LEVELS DRY OUT WITH A POTENTIAL FOR
-FZDZ LATE TONIGHT AND INTO MONDAY. FORECAST CONFIDENCE IN THIS IS
MARGINAL...WITH A CHANCE THAT PRECIPITATION WILL NOT MATERIALIZE.
EXPECT IFR-MVFR CIGS THROUGH 12Z. AFTER THIS...INCREASING SW WINDS
SHOULD HELP MIX LOW LEVEL MOISTURE...WITH LIFTING CIGS SUNDAY MORNING.

OUTLOOK...
SUNDAY NIGHT...SCATTERED SNOW SHOWERS WITH MVFR/IFR POSSIBLE.
MONDAY...MVFR/IFR IN LAKE SNOW SOUTH OF LAKE ONTARIO. VFR
ELSEWHERE.
TUESDAY...VFR.
WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY...SCATTERED SNOW SHOWERS WITH MVFR/IFR POSSIBLE.

&&

.MARINE...
RELATIVELY TRANQUIL CONDITIONS ON LAKE ONTARIO WILL PERSIST
THROUGH TONIGHT AS A WEAK AREA OF LOW PRESSURE CROSSES THE REGION.

FRESHENING WESTERLY FLOW WILL DEVELOP BEHIND THE PASSING LOW SUNDAY
AFTERNOON. AN ARCTIC FRONT DROPPING ACROSS THE LAKES SUNDAY NIGHT
WILL LIKELY BRING ANOTHER ROUND OF SMALL CRAFT ADVISORIES WITH BRISK
WNW FLOW LASTING THROUGH MONDAY WITH WINDS BACKING TO THE SW TUESDAY
AHEAD OF ANOTHER CLIPPER THAT IS EXPECTED TO PASS NORTH OF THE GREAT
LAKES.

&&

.BUF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NY...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 10 AM EST SUNDAY FOR NYZ001-002-
     006>008-010>012-019>021-085.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

SYNOPSIS...WOOD
NEAR TERM...APFFEL
SHORT TERM...CHURCH
LONG TERM...CHURCH/WCH
AVIATION...APFFEL
MARINE...APFFEL/WOOD
Hazardous weather outlook, Feb 21, 11:30 AM EST, 3 hours 39 minutes before
HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BUFFALO NY
1130 AM EST SAT FEB 21 2015

NYZ006-221630-
OSWEGO-
1130 AM EST SAT FEB 21 2015

...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY IN EFFECT UNTIL 10 AM EST SUNDAY...

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR PORTIONS OF CENTRAL NEW YORK.

.DAY ONE...THIS AFTERNOON AND TONIGHT.

PLEASE LISTEN TO NOAA WEATHER RADIO OR GO TO WEATHER.GOV ON THE
INTERNET FOR MORE INFORMATION ABOUT THE FOLLOWING HAZARDS.

   WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY.

PLEASE LISTEN TO NOAA WEATHER RADIO OR GO TO WEATHER.GOV ON THE
INTERNET FOR MORE INFORMATION ABOUT THE FOLLOWING HAZARDS.

   WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY.

ARCTIC AIR RETURNS SUNDAY NIGHT BRINGING ANOTHER ROUND OF
POTENTIALLY DANGEROUS WIND CHILLS THROUGH MONDAY MORNING.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

SPOTTER ACTIVATION IS NOT EXPECTED AT THIS TIME.

THIS PRODUCT...ALONG WITH OTHER WATCHES...WARNINGS...ADVISORIES...
AND STATEMENTS ISSUED BY THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE OFFICE IN
BUFFALO CAN BE FOUND ON THE INTERNET AT HTTP://WWW.WEATHER.GOV/BUF

NYZ004-005-221630-
WAYNE-NORTHERN CAYUGA-
1130 AM EST SAT FEB 21 2015

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR PORTIONS OF WESTERN AND NORTH
CENTRAL NEW YORK.

.DAY ONE...THIS AFTERNOON AND TONIGHT.

THERE WILL BE A COUPLE INCHES OF LIGHT SNOW THIS AFTERNOON AND
EVENING...WHICH WILL RESULT IN SLICK ROADWAYS. THERE IS A SMALL
CHANCE FOR FREEZING DRIZZLE LATE TONIGHT.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY.

ARCTIC AIR RETURNS SUNDAY NIGHT BRINGING ANOTHER ROUND OF
POTENTIALLY DANGEROUS WIND CHILLS THROUGH MONDAY MORNING.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

SPOTTER ACTIVATION IS NOT EXPECTED AT THIS TIME.

THIS PRODUCT...ALONG WITH OTHER WATCHES...WARNINGS...ADVISORIES...
AND STATEMENTS ISSUED BY THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE OFFICE IN
BUFFALO CAN BE FOUND ON THE INTERNET AT HTTP://WWW.WEATHER.GOV/BUF

NYZ003-013-014-221630-
MONROE-LIVINGSTON-ONTARIO-
1130 AM EST SAT FEB 21 2015

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR PORTIONS OF WESTERN NEW YORK.

.DAY ONE...THIS AFTERNOON AND TONIGHT.

THERE WILL BE A COUPLE INCHES OF LIGHT SNOW THIS AFTERNOON AND
EVENING...WHICH WILL RESULT IN SLICK ROADWAYS. THERE IS A SMALL
CHANCE FOR FREEZING DRIZZLE LATE TONIGHT.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY.

ARCTIC AIR RETURNS SUNDAY NIGHT BRINGING ANOTHER ROUND OF
POTENTIALLY DANGEROUS WIND CHILLS THROUGH MONDAY MORNING.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

SPOTTER ACTIVATION IS NOT EXPECTED AT THIS TIME.

THIS PRODUCT...ALONG WITH OTHER WATCHES...WARNINGS...ADVISORIES...
AND STATEMENTS ISSUED BY THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE OFFICE IN
BUFFALO CAN BE FOUND ON THE INTERNET AT HTTP://WWW.WEATHER.GOV/BUF

NYZ001-002-010>012-019>021-085-221630-
NIAGARA-ORLEANS-NORTHERN ERIE-GENESEE-WYOMING-CHAUTAUQUA-CATTARAUGUS-
ALLEGANY-SOUTHERN ERIE-
1130 AM EST SAT FEB 21 2015

...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY IN EFFECT UNTIL 10 AM EST SUNDAY...

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR PORTIONS OF WESTERN NEW YORK.

.DAY ONE...THIS AFTERNOON AND TONIGHT.

PLEASE LISTEN TO NOAA WEATHER RADIO OR GO TO WEATHER.GOV ON THE
INTERNET FOR MORE INFORMATION ABOUT THE FOLLOWING HAZARDS.

   WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY.

PLEASE LISTEN TO NOAA WEATHER RADIO OR GO TO WEATHER.GOV ON THE
INTERNET FOR MORE INFORMATION ABOUT THE FOLLOWING HAZARDS.

   WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY.

ARCTIC AIR RETURNS SUNDAY NIGHT BRINGING ANOTHER ROUND OF
POTENTIALLY DANGEROUS WIND CHILLS THROUGH MONDAY MORNING.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

SPOTTER ACTIVATION IS NOT EXPECTED AT THIS TIME.

THIS PRODUCT...ALONG WITH OTHER WATCHES...WARNINGS...ADVISORIES...
AND STATEMENTS ISSUED BY THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE OFFICE IN
BUFFALO CAN BE FOUND ON THE INTERNET AT HTTP://WWW.WEATHER.GOV/BUF

NYZ007-008-221630-
JEFFERSON-LEWIS-
1130 AM EST SAT FEB 21 2015

...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY IN EFFECT UNTIL 10 AM EST SUNDAY...

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR PORTIONS OF CENTRAL NEW YORK.

.DAY ONE...THIS AFTERNOON AND TONIGHT.

PLEASE LISTEN TO NOAA WEATHER RADIO OR GO TO WEATHER.GOV ON THE
INTERNET FOR MORE INFORMATION ABOUT THE FOLLOWING HAZARDS.

   WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY.

PLEASE LISTEN TO NOAA WEATHER RADIO OR GO TO WEATHER.GOV ON THE
INTERNET FOR MORE INFORMATION ABOUT THE FOLLOWING HAZARDS.

   WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY.

ARCTIC AIR RETURNS SUNDAY NIGHT BRINGING ANOTHER ROUND OF
POTENTIALLY DANGEROUS WIND CHILLS THROUGH MONDAY MORNING.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

SPOTTER ACTIVATION IS NOT EXPECTED AT THIS TIME.

THIS PRODUCT...ALONG WITH OTHER WATCHES...WARNINGS...ADVISORIES...
AND STATEMENTS ISSUED BY THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE OFFICE IN
BUFFALO CAN BE FOUND ON THE INTERNET AT HTTP://WWW.WEATHER.GOV/BUF

LEZ020-040-041-LOZ030-042>045-062>065-SLZ022-024-221630-
UPPER NIAGARA RIVER AND BUFFALO HARBOR-
LAKE ERIE NEARSHORE WATERS FROM RIPLEY TO DUNKIRK-
LAKE ERIE NEARSHORE WATERS FROM DUNKIRK TO BUFFALO-
LOWER NIAGARA RIVER-
LAKE ONTARIO NEARSHORE WATERS FROM THE NIAGARA RIVER TO HAMLIN BEACH-
LAKE ONTARIO NEARSHORE WATERS FROM HAMLIN BEACH TO SODUS BAY-
LAKE ONTARIO NEARSHORE WATERS FROM SODUS BAY TO MEXICO BAY-
LAKE ONTARIO NEARSHORE WATERS FROM MEXICO BAY TO THE SAINT LAWRENCE
RIVER-
LAKE ONTARIO OPEN WATERS FROM THE NIAGARA RIVER TO HAMLIN BEACH-
LAKE ONTARIO OPEN WATERS FROM HAMLIN BEACH TO SODUS BAY-
LAKE ONTARIO OPEN WATERS FROM SODUS BAY TO MEXICO BAY-
LAKE ONTARIO OPEN WATERS FROM MEXICO BAY TO THE SAINT LAWRENCE RIVER-
SAINT LAWRENCE RIVER FROM CAPE VINCENT TO OGDENSBURG-
SAINT LAWRENCE RIVER FROM OGDENSBURG TO SAINT REGIS-
1130 AM EST SAT FEB 21 2015

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR THE NEW YORK WATERS OF LAKE
ERIE...LAKE ONTARIO...AND THE SAINT LAWRENCE RIVER.

.DAY ONE...THIS AFTERNOON AND TONIGHT.

THE PROBABILITY FOR WIDESPREAD HAZARDOUS WEATHER IS LOW.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY.

THE PROBABILITY FOR WIDESPREAD HAZARDOUS WEATHER IS LOW.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

SPOTTER ACTIVATION IS NOT EXPECTED AT THIS TIME.

THIS PRODUCT...ALONG WITH OTHER WATCHES...WARNINGS...ADVISORIES...
AND STATEMENTS ISSUED BY THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE OFFICE IN
BUFFALO CAN BE FOUND ON THE INTERNET AT HTTP://WWW.WEATHER.GOV/BUF

APFFEL

The office that day

Everything else NWS Buffalo, NY issued on the same UTC day.

IssuedProductOfficeCountiesLasted
Feb 21, 3:32 AM ESTWinter Weather AdvisoryBUFAllegany, Cattaraugus, Chautauqua, Erie, Genesee, Jefferson and 5 more24 hr

Nearby

Wind Chill Watches in New York, 2015Every wind chill watch in 2015

Sources

The product and its follow-ups from the Iowa Environmental Mesonet's archive of National Weather Service and Storm Prediction Center text; the sounding from the Mesonet's radiosonde archive; radar from the NEXRAD Level II archive.