Alert archive / New York / Small Craft Advisories in 2015
Small Craft Advisory 149, NWS Buffalo, NY
NWS Buffalo, NY issued this small craft advisory at Dec 10, 2015, 9:19 AM EST. It took effect at Dec 10, 2015, 7:00 PM EST. It was in force for 33 hr.
The area
The counties it named.
The facts
- Issued
- Dec 10, 2015, 9:19 AM EST (14:19 UTC)
- In effect from
- Dec 10, 2015, 7:00 PM EST
- Expired
- Dec 12, 2015, 4:00 AM EST
- In force
- 33 hr
- Issued by
- NWS Buffalo, NY
The text
As transmitted, in the capitals the NWS used until 2016.
272 WHUS71 KBUF 101419 MWWBUF URGENT - MARINE WEATHER MESSAGE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BUFFALO NY 919 AM EST THU DEC 10 2015 LEZ040-041-102230- /O.NEW.KBUF.SC.Y.0149.151211T0000Z-151212T0000Z/ LAKE ERIE NEARSHORE WATERS FROM RIPLEY TO DUNKIRK- LAKE ERIE NEARSHORE WATERS FROM DUNKIRK TO BUFFALO- 919 AM EST THU DEC 10 2015 ...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY IN EFFECT FROM 7 PM THIS EVENING TO 7 PM EST FRIDAY... THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN BUFFALO HAS ISSUED A SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY...WHICH IS IN EFFECT FROM 7 PM THIS EVENING TO 7 PM EST FRIDAY. * WINDS...SOUTHWEST 20 TO 25 KNOTS. * WAVES...3 TO 6 FEET. PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS... A SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY MEANS THAT WIND SPEEDS OF 18 TO 33 KNOTS AND/OR WAVES AVERAGING 4 FEET OR MORE ARE EXPECTED TO PRODUCE HAZARDOUS WAVE CONDITIONS TO SMALL CRAFT. INEXPERIENCED MARINERS... ESPECIALLY THOSE OPERATING SMALLER VESSELS... SHOULD AVOID NAVIGATING IN THESE CONDITIONS. && $$ LEZ020-LOZ030-102230- /O.NEW.KBUF.SC.Y.0149.151211T1000Z-151212T0000Z/ UPPER NIAGARA RIVER AND BUFFALO HARBOR-LOWER NIAGARA RIVER- 919 AM EST THU DEC 10 2015 ...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY IN EFFECT FROM 5 AM TO 7 PM EST FRIDAY... THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN BUFFALO HAS ISSUED A SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY...WHICH IS IN EFFECT FROM 5 AM TO 7 PM EST FRIDAY. * WINDS...SOUTHWEST 20 TO 25 KNOTS. PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS... A SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY MEANS THAT WIND SPEEDS OF 18 TO 33 KNOTS AND/OR WAVES AVERAGING 4 FEET OR MORE ARE EXPECTED TO PRODUCE HAZARDOUS WAVE CONDITIONS TO SMALL CRAFT. INEXPERIENCED MARINERS... ESPECIALLY THOSE OPERATING SMALLER VESSELS... SHOULD AVOID NAVIGATING IN THESE CONDITIONS. && $$ LOZ042>045-102230- /O.NEW.KBUF.SC.Y.0149.151211T1000Z-151212T0000Z/ LAKE ONTARIO NEARSHORE WATERS FROM THE NIAGARA RIVER TO HAMLIN BEACH- LAKE ONTARIO NEARSHORE WATERS FROM HAMLIN BEACH TO SODUS BAY- LAKE ONTARIO NEARSHORE WATERS FROM SODUS BAY TO MEXICO BAY- LAKE ONTARIO NEARSHORE WATERS FROM MEXICO BAY TO THE SAINT LAWRENCE RIVER- 919 AM EST THU DEC 10 2015 ...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY IN EFFECT FROM 5 AM TO 7 PM EST FRIDAY... THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN BUFFALO HAS ISSUED A SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY...WHICH IS IN EFFECT FROM 5 AM TO 7 PM EST FRIDAY. * WINDS...SOUTHWEST 20 TO 25 KNOTS. * WAVES...3 TO 5 FEET. PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS... A SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY MEANS THAT WIND SPEEDS OF 18 TO 33 KNOTS AND/OR WAVES AVERAGING 4 FEET OR MORE ARE EXPECTED TO PRODUCE HAZARDOUS WAVE CONDITIONS TO SMALL CRAFT. INEXPERIENCED MARINERS... ESPECIALLY THOSE OPERATING SMALLER VESSELS... SHOULD AVOID NAVIGATING IN THESE CONDITIONS. && $$ SLZ022-024-102230- /O.NEW.KBUF.SC.Y.0149.151211T1000Z-151212T0000Z/ SAINT LAWRENCE RIVER FROM CAPE VINCENT TO OGDENSBURG- SAINT LAWRENCE RIVER FROM OGDENSBURG TO SAINT REGIS- 919 AM EST THU DEC 10 2015 ...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY IN EFFECT FROM 5 AM TO 7 PM EST FRIDAY... THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN BUFFALO HAS ISSUED A SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY...WHICH IS IN EFFECT FROM 5 AM TO 7 PM EST FRIDAY. * WINDS...SOUTHWEST 20 TO 25 KNOTS. PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS... A SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY MEANS THAT WIND SPEEDS OF 18 TO 33 KNOTS AND/OR WAVES AVERAGING 4 FEET OR MORE ARE EXPECTED TO PRODUCE HAZARDOUS WAVE CONDITIONS TO SMALL CRAFT. INEXPERIENCED MARINERS... ESPECIALLY THOSE OPERATING SMALLER VESSELS... SHOULD AVOID NAVIGATING IN THESE CONDITIONS. && $$
9 follow-up statements
176 WHUS71 KBUF 102007 MWWBUF URGENT - MARINE WEATHER MESSAGE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BUFFALO NY 307 PM EST THU DEC 10 2015 LEZ040-041-110415- /O.EXT.KBUF.SC.Y.0149.151211T0000Z-151212T0300Z/ LAKE ERIE NEARSHORE WATERS FROM RIPLEY TO DUNKIRK- LAKE ERIE NEARSHORE WATERS FROM DUNKIRK TO BUFFALO- 307 PM EST THU DEC 10 2015 ...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY NOW IN EFFECT FROM 7 PM THIS EVENING TO 10 PM EST FRIDAY... * WINDS...SOUTHWEST 15 TO 20 KNOTS. * WAVES...3 TO 6 FEET. PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS... A SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY MEANS THAT WIND SPEEDS OF 18 TO 33 KNOTS AND/OR WAVES AVERAGING 4 FEET OR MORE ARE EXPECTED TO PRODUCE HAZARDOUS WAVE CONDITIONS TO SMALL CRAFT. INEXPERIENCED MARINERS... ESPECIALLY THOSE OPERATING SMALLER VESSELS... SHOULD AVOID NAVIGATING IN THESE CONDITIONS. && $$ LOZ042-110415- /O.EXT.KBUF.SC.Y.0149.151211T1000Z-151212T0300Z/ LAKE ONTARIO NEARSHORE WATERS FROM THE NIAGARA RIVER TO HAMLIN BEACH- 307 PM EST THU DEC 10 2015 ...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY NOW IN EFFECT FROM 5 AM TO 10 PM EST FRIDAY... * WINDS...SOUTHWEST 20 TO 25 KNOTS. * WAVES...3 TO 5 FEET. PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS... A SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY MEANS THAT WIND SPEEDS OF 18 TO 33 KNOTS AND/OR WAVES AVERAGING 4 FEET OR MORE ARE EXPECTED TO PRODUCE HAZARDOUS WAVE CONDITIONS TO SMALL CRAFT. INEXPERIENCED MARINERS... ESPECIALLY THOSE OPERATING SMALLER VESSELS... SHOULD AVOID NAVIGATING IN THESE CONDITIONS. && $$ LOZ043>045-110415- /O.EXT.KBUF.SC.Y.0149.151211T1000Z-151212T0600Z/ LAKE ONTARIO NEARSHORE WATERS FROM HAMLIN BEACH TO SODUS BAY- LAKE ONTARIO NEARSHORE WATERS FROM SODUS BAY TO MEXICO BAY- LAKE ONTARIO NEARSHORE WATERS FROM MEXICO BAY TO THE SAINT LAWRENCE RIVER- 307 PM EST THU DEC 10 2015 ...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY NOW IN EFFECT FROM 5 AM FRIDAY TO 1 AM EST SATURDAY... * WINDS...SOUTHWEST 15 TO 20 KNOTS. * WAVES...3 TO 5 FEET. PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS... A SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY MEANS THAT WIND SPEEDS OF 18 TO 33 KNOTS AND/OR WAVES AVERAGING 4 FEET OR MORE ARE EXPECTED TO PRODUCE HAZARDOUS WAVE CONDITIONS TO SMALL CRAFT. INEXPERIENCED MARINERS... ESPECIALLY THOSE OPERATING SMALLER VESSELS... SHOULD AVOID NAVIGATING IN THESE CONDITIONS. && $$ LEZ020-LOZ030-110415- /O.CON.KBUF.SC.Y.0149.151211T1000Z-151212T0000Z/ UPPER NIAGARA RIVER AND BUFFALO HARBOR-LOWER NIAGARA RIVER- 307 PM EST THU DEC 10 2015 ...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY REMAINS IN EFFECT FROM 5 AM TO 7 PM EST FRIDAY... * WINDS...SOUTHWEST 15 TO 25 KNOTS. PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS... A SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY MEANS THAT WIND SPEEDS OF 18 TO 33 KNOTS AND/OR WAVES AVERAGING 4 FEET OR MORE ARE EXPECTED TO PRODUCE HAZARDOUS WAVE CONDITIONS TO SMALL CRAFT. INEXPERIENCED MARINERS... ESPECIALLY THOSE OPERATING SMALLER VESSELS... SHOULD AVOID NAVIGATING IN THESE CONDITIONS. && $$ SLZ022-024-110415- /O.CON.KBUF.SC.Y.0149.151211T1000Z-151212T0000Z/ SAINT LAWRENCE RIVER FROM CAPE VINCENT TO OGDENSBURG- SAINT LAWRENCE RIVER FROM OGDENSBURG TO SAINT REGIS- 307 PM EST THU DEC 10 2015 ...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY REMAINS IN EFFECT FROM 5 AM TO 7 PM EST FRIDAY... * WINDS...SOUTHWEST 15 TO 25 KNOTS. PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS... A SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY MEANS THAT WIND SPEEDS OF 18 TO 33 KNOTS AND/OR WAVES AVERAGING 4 FEET OR MORE ARE EXPECTED TO PRODUCE HAZARDOUS WAVE CONDITIONS TO SMALL CRAFT. INEXPERIENCED MARINERS... ESPECIALLY THOSE OPERATING SMALLER VESSELS... SHOULD AVOID NAVIGATING IN THESE CONDITIONS. && $$
619 WHUS71 KBUF 110229 MWWBUF URGENT - MARINE WEATHER MESSAGE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BUFFALO NY 929 PM EST THU DEC 10 2015 LEZ040-041-111030- /O.CON.KBUF.SC.Y.0149.000000T0000Z-151212T0300Z/ LAKE ERIE NEARSHORE WATERS FROM RIPLEY TO DUNKIRK- LAKE ERIE NEARSHORE WATERS FROM DUNKIRK TO BUFFALO- 929 PM EST THU DEC 10 2015 ...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 10 PM EST FRIDAY... * WINDS...SOUTHWEST 15 TO 20 KNOTS. * WAVES...3 TO 5 FEET. PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS... A SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY MEANS THAT WIND SPEEDS OF 18 TO 33 KNOTS AND/OR WAVES AVERAGING 4 FEET OR MORE ARE EXPECTED TO PRODUCE HAZARDOUS WAVE CONDITIONS TO SMALL CRAFT. INEXPERIENCED MARINERS... ESPECIALLY THOSE OPERATING SMALLER VESSELS...SHOULD AVOID NAVIGATING IN THESE CONDITIONS. && $$ LEZ020-LOZ030-111030- /O.CON.KBUF.SC.Y.0149.151211T1000Z-151212T0000Z/ UPPER NIAGARA RIVER AND BUFFALO HARBOR-LOWER NIAGARA RIVER- 929 PM EST THU DEC 10 2015 ...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY REMAINS IN EFFECT FROM 5 AM TO 7 PM EST FRIDAY... * WINDS...SOUTHWEST 15 TO 20 KNOTS. PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS... A SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY MEANS THAT WIND SPEEDS OF 18 TO 33 KNOTS AND/OR WAVES AVERAGING 4 FEET OR MORE ARE EXPECTED TO PRODUCE HAZARDOUS WAVE CONDITIONS TO SMALL CRAFT. INEXPERIENCED MARINERS... ESPECIALLY THOSE OPERATING SMALLER VESSELS...SHOULD AVOID NAVIGATING IN THESE CONDITIONS. && $$ LOZ042-111030- /O.CON.KBUF.SC.Y.0149.151211T1000Z-151212T0300Z/ LAKE ONTARIO NEARSHORE WATERS FROM THE NIAGARA RIVER TO HAMLIN BEACH- 929 PM EST THU DEC 10 2015 ...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY REMAINS IN EFFECT FROM 5 AM TO 10 PM EST FRIDAY... * WINDS...SOUTHWEST 20 TO 25 KNOTS. * WAVES...3 TO 5 FEET. PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS... A SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY MEANS THAT WIND SPEEDS OF 18 TO 33 KNOTS AND/OR WAVES AVERAGING 4 FEET OR MORE ARE EXPECTED TO PRODUCE HAZARDOUS WAVE CONDITIONS TO SMALL CRAFT. INEXPERIENCED MARINERS... ESPECIALLY THOSE OPERATING SMALLER VESSELS...SHOULD AVOID NAVIGATING IN THESE CONDITIONS. && $$ SLZ022-024-111030- /O.CON.KBUF.SC.Y.0149.151211T1000Z-151212T0000Z/ SAINT LAWRENCE RIVER FROM CAPE VINCENT TO OGDENSBURG- SAINT LAWRENCE RIVER FROM OGDENSBURG TO SAINT REGIS- 929 PM EST THU DEC 10 2015 ...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY REMAINS IN EFFECT FROM 5 AM TO 7 PM EST FRIDAY... * WINDS...SOUTHWEST INCREASING TO 15 TO 20 KNOTS. PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS... A SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY MEANS THAT WIND SPEEDS OF 18 TO 33 KNOTS AND/OR WAVES AVERAGING 4 FEET OR MORE ARE EXPECTED TO PRODUCE HAZARDOUS WAVE CONDITIONS TO SMALL CRAFT. INEXPERIENCED MARINERS... ESPECIALLY THOSE OPERATING SMALLER VESSELS...SHOULD AVOID NAVIGATING IN THESE CONDITIONS. && $$ LOZ043>045-111030- /O.CON.KBUF.SC.Y.0149.151211T1000Z-151212T0600Z/ LAKE ONTARIO NEARSHORE WATERS FROM HAMLIN BEACH TO SODUS BAY- LAKE ONTARIO NEARSHORE WATERS FROM SODUS BAY TO MEXICO BAY- LAKE ONTARIO NEARSHORE WATERS FROM MEXICO BAY TO THE SAINT LAWRENCE RIVER- 929 PM EST THU DEC 10 2015 ...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY REMAINS IN EFFECT FROM 5 AM FRIDAY TO 1 AM EST SATURDAY... * WINDS...SOUTHWEST 15 TO 20 KNOTS. * WAVES...3 TO 5 FEET. PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS... A SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY MEANS THAT WIND SPEEDS OF 18 TO 33 KNOTS AND/OR WAVES AVERAGING 4 FEET OR MORE ARE EXPECTED TO PRODUCE HAZARDOUS WAVE CONDITIONS TO SMALL CRAFT. INEXPERIENCED MARINERS... ESPECIALLY THOSE OPERATING SMALLER VESSELS...SHOULD AVOID NAVIGATING IN THESE CONDITIONS. && $$ RSH
059 WHUS71 KBUF 110448 MWWBUF URGENT - MARINE WEATHER MESSAGE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BUFFALO NY 1148 PM EST THU DEC 10 2015 LEZ040-041-111300- /O.CON.KBUF.SC.Y.0149.000000T0000Z-151212T0300Z/ LAKE ERIE NEARSHORE WATERS FROM RIPLEY TO DUNKIRK- LAKE ERIE NEARSHORE WATERS FROM DUNKIRK TO BUFFALO- 1148 PM EST THU DEC 10 2015 ...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 10 PM EST FRIDAY... * WINDS...SOUTHWEST 15 TO 20 KNOTS. * WAVES...3 TO 5 FEET. PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS... A SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY MEANS THAT WIND SPEEDS OF 18 TO 33 KNOTS AND/OR WAVES AVERAGING 4 FEET OR MORE ARE EXPECTED TO PRODUCE HAZARDOUS WAVE CONDITIONS TO SMALL CRAFT. INEXPERIENCED MARINERS... ESPECIALLY THOSE OPERATING SMALLER VESSELS...SHOULD AVOID NAVIGATING IN THESE CONDITIONS. && $$ LEZ020-LOZ030-111300- /O.CON.KBUF.SC.Y.0149.151211T1000Z-151212T0000Z/ UPPER NIAGARA RIVER AND BUFFALO HARBOR-LOWER NIAGARA RIVER- 1148 PM EST THU DEC 10 2015 ...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY REMAINS IN EFFECT FROM 5 AM TO 7 PM EST FRIDAY... * WINDS...SOUTHWEST 15 TO 20 KNOTS. PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS... A SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY MEANS THAT WIND SPEEDS OF 18 TO 33 KNOTS AND/OR WAVES AVERAGING 4 FEET OR MORE ARE EXPECTED TO PRODUCE HAZARDOUS WAVE CONDITIONS TO SMALL CRAFT. INEXPERIENCED MARINERS... ESPECIALLY THOSE OPERATING SMALLER VESSELS...SHOULD AVOID NAVIGATING IN THESE CONDITIONS. && $$ LOZ042-111300- /O.CON.KBUF.SC.Y.0149.151211T1000Z-151212T0300Z/ LAKE ONTARIO NEARSHORE WATERS FROM THE NIAGARA RIVER TO HAMLIN BEACH- 1148 PM EST THU DEC 10 2015 ...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY REMAINS IN EFFECT FROM 5 AM TO 10 PM EST FRIDAY... * WINDS...SOUTHWEST 20 TO 25 KNOTS. * WAVES...3 TO 5 FEET. PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS... A SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY MEANS THAT WIND SPEEDS OF 18 TO 33 KNOTS AND/OR WAVES AVERAGING 4 FEET OR MORE ARE EXPECTED TO PRODUCE HAZARDOUS WAVE CONDITIONS TO SMALL CRAFT. INEXPERIENCED MARINERS... ESPECIALLY THOSE OPERATING SMALLER VESSELS...SHOULD AVOID NAVIGATING IN THESE CONDITIONS. && $$ SLZ022-024-111300- /O.CON.KBUF.SC.Y.0149.151211T1000Z-151212T0000Z/ SAINT LAWRENCE RIVER FROM CAPE VINCENT TO OGDENSBURG- SAINT LAWRENCE RIVER FROM OGDENSBURG TO SAINT REGIS- 1148 PM EST THU DEC 10 2015 ...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY REMAINS IN EFFECT FROM 5 AM TO 7 PM EST FRIDAY... * WINDS...SOUTHWEST INCREASING TO 15 TO 20 KNOTS. PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS... A SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY MEANS THAT WIND SPEEDS OF 18 TO 33 KNOTS AND/OR WAVES AVERAGING 4 FEET OR MORE ARE EXPECTED TO PRODUCE HAZARDOUS WAVE CONDITIONS TO SMALL CRAFT. INEXPERIENCED MARINERS... ESPECIALLY THOSE OPERATING SMALLER VESSELS...SHOULD AVOID NAVIGATING IN THESE CONDITIONS. && $$ LOZ043>045-111300- /O.CON.KBUF.SC.Y.0149.151211T1000Z-151212T0600Z/ LAKE ONTARIO NEARSHORE WATERS FROM HAMLIN BEACH TO SODUS BAY- LAKE ONTARIO NEARSHORE WATERS FROM SODUS BAY TO MEXICO BAY- LAKE ONTARIO NEARSHORE WATERS FROM MEXICO BAY TO THE SAINT LAWRENCE RIVER- 1148 PM EST THU DEC 10 2015 ...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY REMAINS IN EFFECT FROM 5 AM FRIDAY TO 1 AM EST SATURDAY... * WINDS...SOUTHWEST 15 TO 20 KNOTS. * WAVES...3 TO 5 FEET. PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS... A SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY MEANS THAT WIND SPEEDS OF 18 TO 33 KNOTS AND/OR WAVES AVERAGING 4 FEET OR MORE ARE EXPECTED TO PRODUCE HAZARDOUS WAVE CONDITIONS TO SMALL CRAFT. INEXPERIENCED MARINERS... ESPECIALLY THOSE OPERATING SMALLER VESSELS...SHOULD AVOID NAVIGATING IN THESE CONDITIONS. && $$
620 WHUS71 KBUF 110833 MWWBUF URGENT - MARINE WEATHER MESSAGE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BUFFALO NY 333 AM EST FRI DEC 11 2015 LEZ040-041-111645- /O.CON.KBUF.SC.Y.0149.000000T0000Z-151212T0300Z/ LAKE ERIE NEARSHORE WATERS FROM RIPLEY TO DUNKIRK- LAKE ERIE NEARSHORE WATERS FROM DUNKIRK TO BUFFALO- 333 AM EST FRI DEC 11 2015 ...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 10 PM EST THIS EVENING... * WINDS...SOUTHWEST 15 TO 20 KNOTS. * WAVES...3 TO 5 FEET. PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS... A SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY MEANS THAT WIND SPEEDS OF 18 TO 33 KNOTS AND/OR WAVES AVERAGING 4 FEET OR MORE ARE EXPECTED TO PRODUCE HAZARDOUS WAVE CONDITIONS TO SMALL CRAFT. INEXPERIENCED MARINERS... ESPECIALLY THOSE OPERATING SMALLER VESSELS...SHOULD AVOID NAVIGATING IN THESE CONDITIONS. && $$ LEZ020-LOZ030-111645- /O.CON.KBUF.SC.Y.0149.151211T1000Z-151212T0000Z/ UPPER NIAGARA RIVER AND BUFFALO HARBOR-LOWER NIAGARA RIVER- 333 AM EST FRI DEC 11 2015 ...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 7 PM EST THIS EVENING... * WINDS...SOUTHWEST 15 TO 20 KNOTS. PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS... A SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY MEANS THAT WIND SPEEDS OF 18 TO 33 KNOTS AND/OR WAVES AVERAGING 4 FEET OR MORE ARE EXPECTED TO PRODUCE HAZARDOUS WAVE CONDITIONS TO SMALL CRAFT. INEXPERIENCED MARINERS... ESPECIALLY THOSE OPERATING SMALLER VESSELS...SHOULD AVOID NAVIGATING IN THESE CONDITIONS. && $$ LOZ042-111645- /O.CON.KBUF.SC.Y.0149.151211T1000Z-151212T0300Z/ LAKE ONTARIO NEARSHORE WATERS FROM THE NIAGARA RIVER TO HAMLIN BEACH- 333 AM EST FRI DEC 11 2015 ...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 10 PM EST THIS EVENING... * WINDS...SOUTHWEST 15 TO 20 KNOTS. * WAVES...2 TO 4 FEET. PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS... A SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY MEANS THAT WIND SPEEDS OF 18 TO 33 KNOTS AND/OR WAVES AVERAGING 4 FEET OR MORE ARE EXPECTED TO PRODUCE HAZARDOUS WAVE CONDITIONS TO SMALL CRAFT. INEXPERIENCED MARINERS... ESPECIALLY THOSE OPERATING SMALLER VESSELS...SHOULD AVOID NAVIGATING IN THESE CONDITIONS. && $$ SLZ022-024-111645- /O.CON.KBUF.SC.Y.0149.151211T1000Z-151212T0000Z/ SAINT LAWRENCE RIVER FROM CAPE VINCENT TO OGDENSBURG- SAINT LAWRENCE RIVER FROM OGDENSBURG TO SAINT REGIS- 333 AM EST FRI DEC 11 2015 ...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 7 PM EST THIS EVENING... * WINDS...SOUTHWEST 15 TO 20 KNOTS. PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS... A SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY MEANS THAT WIND SPEEDS OF 18 TO 33 KNOTS AND/OR WAVES AVERAGING 4 FEET OR MORE ARE EXPECTED TO PRODUCE HAZARDOUS WAVE CONDITIONS TO SMALL CRAFT. INEXPERIENCED MARINERS... ESPECIALLY THOSE OPERATING SMALLER VESSELS...SHOULD AVOID NAVIGATING IN THESE CONDITIONS. && $$ LOZ043>045-111645- /O.CON.KBUF.SC.Y.0149.151211T1000Z-151212T0600Z/ LAKE ONTARIO NEARSHORE WATERS FROM HAMLIN BEACH TO SODUS BAY- LAKE ONTARIO NEARSHORE WATERS FROM SODUS BAY TO MEXICO BAY- LAKE ONTARIO NEARSHORE WATERS FROM MEXICO BAY TO THE SAINT LAWRENCE RIVER- 333 AM EST FRI DEC 11 2015 ...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 1 AM EST SATURDAY... * WINDS...SOUTHWEST 15 TO 20 KNOTS. * WAVES...2 TO 4 FEET. PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS... A SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY MEANS THAT WIND SPEEDS OF 18 TO 33 KNOTS AND/OR WAVES AVERAGING 4 FEET OR MORE ARE EXPECTED TO PRODUCE HAZARDOUS WAVE CONDITIONS TO SMALL CRAFT. INEXPERIENCED MARINERS... ESPECIALLY THOSE OPERATING SMALLER VESSELS...SHOULD AVOID NAVIGATING IN THESE CONDITIONS. && $$
933 WHUS71 KBUF 111604 MWWBUF URGENT - MARINE WEATHER MESSAGE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BUFFALO NY 1104 AM EST FRI DEC 11 2015 LEZ040-041-120015- /O.CON.KBUF.SC.Y.0149.000000T0000Z-151212T0300Z/ LAKE ERIE NEARSHORE WATERS FROM RIPLEY TO DUNKIRK- LAKE ERIE NEARSHORE WATERS FROM DUNKIRK TO BUFFALO- 1104 AM EST FRI DEC 11 2015 ...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 10 PM EST THIS EVENING... * WINDS...SOUTHWEST 20 TO 25 KNOTS. * WAVES...3 TO 5 FEET. PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS... A SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY MEANS THAT WIND SPEEDS OF 18 TO 33 KNOTS AND/OR WAVES AVERAGING 4 FEET OR MORE ARE EXPECTED TO PRODUCE HAZARDOUS WAVE CONDITIONS TO SMALL CRAFT. INEXPERIENCED MARINERS... ESPECIALLY THOSE OPERATING SMALLER VESSELS...SHOULD AVOID NAVIGATING IN THESE CONDITIONS. && $$ LEZ020-LOZ030-120000- /O.CON.KBUF.SC.Y.0149.000000T0000Z-151212T0000Z/ UPPER NIAGARA RIVER AND BUFFALO HARBOR-LOWER NIAGARA RIVER- 1104 AM EST FRI DEC 11 2015 ...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 7 PM EST THIS EVENING... * WINDS...SOUTHWEST 20 TO 25 KNOTS. PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS... A SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY MEANS THAT WIND SPEEDS OF 18 TO 33 KNOTS AND/OR WAVES AVERAGING 4 FEET OR MORE ARE EXPECTED TO PRODUCE HAZARDOUS WAVE CONDITIONS TO SMALL CRAFT. INEXPERIENCED MARINERS... ESPECIALLY THOSE OPERATING SMALLER VESSELS...SHOULD AVOID NAVIGATING IN THESE CONDITIONS. && $$ LOZ042-120015- /O.CON.KBUF.SC.Y.0149.000000T0000Z-151212T0300Z/ LAKE ONTARIO NEARSHORE WATERS FROM THE NIAGARA RIVER TO HAMLIN BEACH- 1104 AM EST FRI DEC 11 2015 ...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 10 PM EST THIS EVENING... * WINDS...SOUTHWEST 20 TO 25 KNOTS. * WAVES...3 TO 4 FEET. PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS... A SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY MEANS THAT WIND SPEEDS OF 18 TO 33 KNOTS AND/OR WAVES AVERAGING 4 FEET OR MORE ARE EXPECTED TO PRODUCE HAZARDOUS WAVE CONDITIONS TO SMALL CRAFT. INEXPERIENCED MARINERS... ESPECIALLY THOSE OPERATING SMALLER VESSELS...SHOULD AVOID NAVIGATING IN THESE CONDITIONS. && $$ SLZ022-024-120000- /O.CON.KBUF.SC.Y.0149.000000T0000Z-151212T0000Z/ SAINT LAWRENCE RIVER FROM CAPE VINCENT TO OGDENSBURG- SAINT LAWRENCE RIVER FROM OGDENSBURG TO SAINT REGIS- 1104 AM EST FRI DEC 11 2015 ...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 7 PM EST THIS EVENING... * WINDS...SOUTHWEST 15 TO 20 KNOTS. PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS... A SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY MEANS THAT WIND SPEEDS OF 18 TO 33 KNOTS AND/OR WAVES AVERAGING 4 FEET OR MORE ARE EXPECTED TO PRODUCE HAZARDOUS WAVE CONDITIONS TO SMALL CRAFT. INEXPERIENCED MARINERS... ESPECIALLY THOSE OPERATING SMALLER VESSELS...SHOULD AVOID NAVIGATING IN THESE CONDITIONS. && $$ LOZ043>045-120015- /O.CON.KBUF.SC.Y.0149.000000T0000Z-151212T0600Z/ LAKE ONTARIO NEARSHORE WATERS FROM HAMLIN BEACH TO SODUS BAY- LAKE ONTARIO NEARSHORE WATERS FROM SODUS BAY TO MEXICO BAY- LAKE ONTARIO NEARSHORE WATERS FROM MEXICO BAY TO THE SAINT LAWRENCE RIVER- 1104 AM EST FRI DEC 11 2015 ...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 1 AM EST SATURDAY... * WINDS...SOUTHWEST 20 TO 25 KNOTS. * WAVES...3 TO 4 FEET. PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS... A SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY MEANS THAT WIND SPEEDS OF 18 TO 33 KNOTS AND/OR WAVES AVERAGING 4 FEET OR MORE ARE EXPECTED TO PRODUCE HAZARDOUS WAVE CONDITIONS TO SMALL CRAFT. INEXPERIENCED MARINERS... ESPECIALLY THOSE OPERATING SMALLER VESSELS...SHOULD AVOID NAVIGATING IN THESE CONDITIONS. && $$ THOMAS
497 WHUS71 KBUF 112356 MWWBUF URGENT - MARINE WEATHER MESSAGE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BUFFALO NY 656 PM EST FRI DEC 11 2015 LEZ020-LOZ030-120100- /O.EXP.KBUF.SC.Y.0149.000000T0000Z-151212T0000Z/ UPPER NIAGARA RIVER AND BUFFALO HARBOR-LOWER NIAGARA RIVER- 656 PM EST FRI DEC 11 2015 ...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY WILL EXPIRE AT 7 PM EST THIS EVENING... WINDS AND WAVES WILL FALL BELOW SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY CRITERIA AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILD ACROSS THE EASTERN GREAT LAKES. $$ SLZ022-024-120100- /O.EXP.KBUF.SC.Y.0149.000000T0000Z-151212T0000Z/ SAINT LAWRENCE RIVER FROM CAPE VINCENT TO OGDENSBURG- SAINT LAWRENCE RIVER FROM OGDENSBURG TO SAINT REGIS- 656 PM EST FRI DEC 11 2015 ...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY WILL EXPIRE AT 7 PM EST THIS EVENING... WINDS AND WAVES WILL FALL BELOW SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY CRITERIA AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILD ACROSS THE EASTERN GREAT LAKES AND SAINT LAWRENCE VALLEY. $$ LOZ043>045-120800- /O.EXT.KBUF.SC.Y.0149.000000T0000Z-151212T0900Z/ LAKE ONTARIO NEARSHORE WATERS FROM HAMLIN BEACH TO SODUS BAY- LAKE ONTARIO NEARSHORE WATERS FROM SODUS BAY TO MEXICO BAY- LAKE ONTARIO NEARSHORE WATERS FROM MEXICO BAY TO THE SAINT LAWRENCE RIVER- 656 PM EST FRI DEC 11 2015 ...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY NOW IN EFFECT UNTIL 4 AM EST SATURDAY... * WINDS...WEST 15 TO 20 KNOTS. * WAVES...3 TO 6 FEET. PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS... A SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY MEANS THAT WIND SPEEDS OF 18 TO 33 KNOTS AND/OR WAVES AVERAGING 4 FEET OR MORE ARE EXPECTED TO PRODUCE HAZARDOUS WAVE CONDITIONS TO SMALL CRAFT. INEXPERIENCED MARINERS... ESPECIALLY THOSE OPERATING SMALLER VESSELS...SHOULD AVOID NAVIGATING IN THESE CONDITIONS. && $$ LEZ040-041-120300- /O.CON.KBUF.SC.Y.0149.000000T0000Z-151212T0300Z/ LAKE ERIE NEARSHORE WATERS FROM RIPLEY TO DUNKIRK- LAKE ERIE NEARSHORE WATERS FROM DUNKIRK TO BUFFALO- 656 PM EST FRI DEC 11 2015 ...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 10 PM EST THIS EVENING... * WINDS...SOUTHWEST 15 TO 20 KNOTS. * WAVES...4 TO 6 FEET. PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS... A SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY MEANS THAT WIND SPEEDS OF 18 TO 33 KNOTS AND/OR WAVES AVERAGING 4 FEET OR MORE ARE EXPECTED TO PRODUCE HAZARDOUS WAVE CONDITIONS TO SMALL CRAFT. INEXPERIENCED MARINERS... ESPECIALLY THOSE OPERATING SMALLER VESSELS...SHOULD AVOID NAVIGATING IN THESE CONDITIONS. && $$ LOZ042-120300- /O.CON.KBUF.SC.Y.0149.000000T0000Z-151212T0300Z/ LAKE ONTARIO NEARSHORE WATERS FROM THE NIAGARA RIVER TO HAMLIN BEACH- 656 PM EST FRI DEC 11 2015 ...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 10 PM EST THIS EVENING... * WINDS...WEST 15 TO 20 KNOTS. * WAVES...3 TO 6 FEET. PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS... A SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY MEANS THAT WIND SPEEDS OF 18 TO 33 KNOTS AND/OR WAVES AVERAGING 4 FEET OR MORE ARE EXPECTED TO PRODUCE HAZARDOUS WAVE CONDITIONS TO SMALL CRAFT. INEXPERIENCED MARINERS... ESPECIALLY THOSE OPERATING SMALLER VESSELS...SHOULD AVOID NAVIGATING IN THESE CONDITIONS. && $$
446 WHUS71 KBUF 120317 MWWBUF URGENT - MARINE WEATHER MESSAGE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BUFFALO NY 1017 PM EST FRI DEC 11 2015 LOZ043>045-120900- /O.CON.KBUF.SC.Y.0149.000000T0000Z-151212T0900Z/ LAKE ONTARIO NEARSHORE WATERS FROM HAMLIN BEACH TO SODUS BAY- LAKE ONTARIO NEARSHORE WATERS FROM SODUS BAY TO MEXICO BAY- LAKE ONTARIO NEARSHORE WATERS FROM MEXICO BAY TO THE SAINT LAWRENCE RIVER- 1017 PM EST FRI DEC 11 2015 ...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 4 AM EST SATURDAY... * WINDS...WEST 15 TO 20 KNOTS. * WAVES...3 TO 6 FEET. PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS... A SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY MEANS THAT WIND SPEEDS OF 18 TO 33 KNOTS AND/OR WAVES AVERAGING 4 FEET OR MORE ARE EXPECTED TO PRODUCE HAZARDOUS WAVE CONDITIONS TO SMALL CRAFT. INEXPERIENCED MARINERS... ESPECIALLY THOSE OPERATING SMALLER VESSELS...SHOULD AVOID NAVIGATING IN THESE CONDITIONS. && $$
570 WHUS71 KBUF 120533 MWWBUF URGENT - MARINE WEATHER MESSAGE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BUFFALO NY 1233 AM EST SAT DEC 12 2015 LOZ043>045-120900- /O.CON.KBUF.SC.Y.0149.000000T0000Z-151212T0900Z/ LAKE ONTARIO NEARSHORE WATERS FROM HAMLIN BEACH TO SODUS BAY- LAKE ONTARIO NEARSHORE WATERS FROM SODUS BAY TO MEXICO BAY- LAKE ONTARIO NEARSHORE WATERS FROM MEXICO BAY TO THE SAINT LAWRENCE RIVER- 1233 AM EST SAT DEC 12 2015 ...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 4 AM EST EARLY THIS MORNING... * WINDS...WEST 5 TO 15 KNOTS. * WAVES...3 TO 6 FEET. PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS... A SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY MEANS THAT WIND SPEEDS OF 18 TO 33 KNOTS AND/OR WAVES AVERAGING 4 FEET OR MORE ARE EXPECTED TO PRODUCE HAZARDOUS WAVE CONDITIONS TO SMALL CRAFT. INEXPERIENCED MARINERS... ESPECIALLY THOSE OPERATING SMALLER VESSELS...SHOULD AVOID NAVIGATING IN THESE CONDITIONS. && $$
869 WHUS71 KBUF 120833 MWWBUF URGENT - MARINE WEATHER MESSAGE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BUFFALO NY 333 AM EST SAT DEC 12 2015 LOZ043>045-120945- /O.EXP.KBUF.SC.Y.0149.000000T0000Z-151212T0900Z/ LAKE ONTARIO NEARSHORE WATERS FROM HAMLIN BEACH TO SODUS BAY- LAKE ONTARIO NEARSHORE WATERS FROM SODUS BAY TO MEXICO BAY- LAKE ONTARIO NEARSHORE WATERS FROM MEXICO BAY TO THE SAINT LAWRENCE RIVER- 333 AM EST SAT DEC 12 2015 ...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY WILL EXPIRE AT 4 AM EST EARLY THIS MORNING... WINDS AND WAVES HAVE SUBSIDED BELOW ADVISORY LEVELS AT THIS TIME. $$
What forecasters said that day
The local office's own words before this small craft advisory went out, as it sent them, from the Iowa Environmental Mesonet's archive of National Weather Service text.
NWS Buffalo, NY wrote its last area forecast discussion before this small craft advisory went out at Dec 10, 9:18 AM EST, 1 minute earlier.
Area forecast discussion, Dec 10, 9:18 AM EST, 1 minute before
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BUFFALO NY
918 AM EST THU DEC 10 2015
.SYNOPSIS...
UNSEASONABLY WARM WEATHER WILL CONTINUE INTO THE WEEKEND. ON
MONDAY...A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL BRING WIDESPREAD RAIN AND
POTENTIALLY STRONG WINDS AS IT PUSHES A STRONG COLD FRONT ACROSS THE
REGION.
&&
.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
LOW CLOUDS THIS MORNING SHOULD MIX OUT BY AROUND 15-16Z WITH
SOUTHERLY FLOW. THIS WILL LEAVE THE AREA UNDER A SHIELD OF MIDDLE
AND HIGH CLOUDS MOVING EASTWARD FROM MICHIGAN AND SOUTHERN
ONTARIO. THESE CLOUDS WILL BE THE VANGUARD OF ANOTHER LOW PRESSURE
THAT WILL TRACK FROM THE WESTERN GREAT LAKES TO NORTHERN QUEBEC
OVER THE NEXT 36 HOURS. WITH THE TROUGH LIFTING TO OUR
NORTHWEST...ANY FORCING AND SUBSEQUENT PRECIPITATION IS EXPECTED
TO REMAIN LARGELY NORTH OF THE BORDER IN CANADA AND DRY WEATHER
WEATHER IS EXPECTED TO PERSIST THROUGH TONIGHT WITH ONLY THE
SLIGHTEST CHANCE OF SHOWERS ACROSS THE NIAGARA PENINSULA AND SAINT
LAWRENCE VALLEY AS THE LOW SKIRTS BY TO OUR NORTH.
SOUTH TO SOUTHWEST SURFACE WINDS WILL INCREASE LATE TODAY AND
CONTINUE INTO FRIDAY. HIGHEST WILL BE ACROSS LAKE PLAINS WHERE GUSTS
COULD REACH 20-25 MPH.
REGARDING TEMPERATURES TONIGHT...WARM AIR AND CLOUD COVER WILL
REMAIN IN PLACE WITH LOWS ONLY FALLING BACK INTO THE 40S.
&&
.SHORT TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT/...
SURFACE LOW PRESSURE WILL PASS ACROSS THE SOUTHERN TIP OF JAMES BAY
ON FRIDAY WHILE FILLING. A 50KT 850MB JET ASSOCIATED WITH THIS LOW
WILL SHIFT ACROSS THE EASTERN GREAT LAKES WITH GUSTY WINDS EXPECTED
THROUGH THE DAY. THE LOW CENTER WILL BE TRACKING ABOUT 500 MILES
NORTHWEST OF BUFFALO ALONG THE OUTER LIMITS OF A FAVORABLE HIGH WIND
TRACK WITH CYCLOLYSIS OCCURRING. WITH THESE TWO POINTS NOTED...DO
NOT EXPECT WIND HEADLINES FOR FRIDAY. BUFKIT MOMENTUM TRANSFER
SCHEMES ARE ONLY SUGGESTING GUSTS TO AROUND 30KTS WHICH IS BELOW
ADVISORY LEVEL. THE BULK OF THE SYNOPTIC MOISTURE AND LIFT
ASSOCIATED WITH THE LOW WILL REMAIN NORTH OF NEW YORK WITH ONLY A
SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHOWERS EXPECTED ACROSS THE NORTH COUNTY AS THE
SOUTHERN TIP OF A PASSING VORT MAX GLANCES NORTHERN NEW YORK. HIGHS
ON SUNDAY WILL REMAIN ABOVE NORMAL RANGING FROM M50S-60.
HEADING INTO THE WEEKEND A MID-LEVEL RIDGE WILL BUILD ACROSS THE
EASTERN THIRD OF THE CONUS IN RESPONSE TO A DEEP TROUGH DIGGING
ACROSS THE FOUR CORNERS STATES. THIS TROUGH AND ASSOCIATED SURFACE
LOW LOOKS TO BRING A POTENTIAL FOR HAZARDOUS WEATHER EARLY NEXT WEEK
WITH MORE INFO IN THE LONG TERM DISCUSSION BELOW. BEFORE
THEN...EXPECTING DEEP SOUTHERLY FLOW EAST OF THE AMPLIFIED TROUGH
WILL HELP ADVECT VERY MILD AIR ACROSS NEW YORK ON SATURDAY ALONG
WITH CHANCES OF SHOWERS AS ISENTROPIC LIFT OCCURS ACROSS A WARM
FRONT CROSSING THE EASTERN GREAT LAKES. THE BIGGER STORY HOWEVER IS
WITH THE TEMPERATURE FORECAST. 850MB TEMPS RISING TO AROUND +8C WILL
COMBINE WITH A SOUTHWESTERLY DOWNSLOPE FLOW TO BRING HIGH
TEMPERATURES POSSIBLY REACHING INTO THE LOW 60S FOR MUCH OF WESTERN
NEW YORK WHILE THE EASTERN LAKE ONTARIO REGION SEE M/U 50S. RECORD
HIGHS COULD BE CHALLENGED IN BUFFALO (63F) AND ROCHESTER (62F).
DEWPOINTS ARE FORECAST TO RISE INTO THE U40S/L50S WHICH WILL MAKE
FOR A BIT OF HUMIDITY IN THE AIR OVER THE WEEKEND AND HELP KEEP
VERY MILD OVERNIGHT LOW TEMPS.
&&
.LONG TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
WHILE VERY WARM TEMPERATURES ARE EXPECTED TO CONTINUE INTO SUNDAY
THANKS TO AN AMPLIFIED MID-LEVEL RIDGE EXTENDING OVER NEW YORK...THE
BIGGER STORY IS WITH A POTENTIAL HIGH WIND EVENT THAT MODELS ARE
SHOWING FOR MONDAY. MORE ON THIS BELOW. SUNDAY AND SUNDAY
NIGHT...LOW PRESSURE IS FORECAST TO LIFT ACROSS THE UPPER MIDWEST
STATES WHILE RAPIDLY DEEPENING. AHEAD OF THIS SYSTEM THERE IS A
CHANCE OF SHOWERS ON SUNDAY BUT THE BULK OF THE DAY SHOULD BE RAIN-
FREE. 850MB TEMPERATURES WILL CLIMB TO AROUND +14C PER GFS/EC WHICH
IS 2SD ABOVE NORMAL FOR THIS TIME OF YEAR THUS HAVE CONTINUED THE
FORECAST ALONG THE HIGH END OF GUIDANCE. HIGHS ALONG THE LAKE SHORES
SHOULD PUSH INTO THE M60S WITH L60S INLAND FROM THE LAKES AND M/U
50S POSSIBLE IN THE NORTH COUNTY. FOR BUFFALO AND ROCHESTER THE
FORECAST HIGHS SHOULD HAVE NO PROBLEM BREAKING THE RECORDS OF 62
IN BOTH CITIES.
CONCERNING HIGH WINDS...10/00Z GFS AND ECMWF MODELS ARE IN AGREEMENT
ON THE POTENTIAL FOR A DEEPENING SURFACE LOW TRACKING FAVORABLY JUST
NORTHWEST OF NEW YORK ON MONDAY. THE EC REMAINS A LITTLE WEAKER WITH
THE LOW CENTER (980MB VS 967MB) BUT HAS A SIMILARLY STRONG 850MB JET
OF 55-60KTS. EVENT TYPE CHARTS FROM A RECENT HIGH WIND STUDY AND
MATCHING OF MSLP AND 850MB JET ANOMALIES WITH PREVIOUS WIND EVENTS
SUGGEST A WIDESPREAD HIGH WIND EVENT IS POSSIBLE. THE GFS SHOWS A
STRONG PV INTRUSION TO BELOW 500MB JUST BEHIND THE PASSING COLD
FRONT WHICH SUPPORTS DOWNWARD MIXING OF THE HIGH 850MB WINDS TO THE
SURFACE. TIMING OF THE COLD FRONTAL PASSAGE BETWEEN THE FASTER GFS
AND SLOWER EC MODEL WILL HAVE IMPLICATIONS ON WHEN TO EXPECT HIGH
WINDS TO START ON MONDAY. WILL CONTINUE TO HIGHLIGHT THE POTENTIAL
FOR HIGH WINDS IN THE HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK.
THERE IS ALSO POTENTIAL FOR A QLCS TO FORM ALONG THE COLD FRONT ON
MONDAY. THIS IS SUPPORTED BY 0-6KM BULK SHEAR FROM THE GFS MODEL
REACHING 100 KTS ALONG WITH SHERB HIGH SHEAR LOW CAPE PARAMETER
RISING OVER ONE ALONG THE LEADING EDGE OF THE FRONT. HAVE INCLUDED A
SLIGHT CHANCE OF THUNDERSTORMS ON MONDAY AFTERNOON WITH A MENTION OF
GUSTY CONVECTIVE WINDS. SOUTHERLY FLOW AHEAD OF THE FRONT WILL BRING
ANOTHER DAY OF ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES. HIGHS ON MONDAY SHOULD
AGAIN MAKE A RUN TOWARD 60 DEGREES.
HIGH PRESSURE RETURNS FOR TUESDAY NIGHT AND AT LEAST A PORTION OF
WEDNESDAY BEFORE THE NEXT SYSTEM MOVES INTO THE GREAT LAKES LATER
WEDNESDAY OR WEDNESDAY NIGHT.
LOOKING A LITTLE FARTHER AHEAD...BEHIND THIS NEXT SYSTEM BOTH THE
ECMWF AND GFS AGREE THAT TEMPERATURES WILL GROW COLDER LATER NEXT
WEEK...AND LIKELY COLD ENOUGH TO SUPPORT SNOW IF ANY PRECIPITATION
FALLS BY FRIDAY. AT THIS EARLY JUNCTURE IT LOOKS DRY IN MOST AREAS
HOWEVER...WITH SOME POTENTIAL FOR WEAK LAKE EFFECT EAST OR SOUTHEAST
OF THE LAKES WITH A DRY AIRMASS LIMITING INTENSITY. BEYOND THAT GEFS
ENSEMBLE MEMBERS STILL SUPPORT A SERIES OF PROGRESSIVE AND STRONG
TROUGHS MOVING ACROSS THE NATION. THIS WILL PROVIDE MORE OPPORTUNITY
FOR BRIEF APPEARANCES OF COLDER AND MORE WINTRY AIR INTO THE GREAT
LAKES...BUT THESE COLD AIR INTRUSIONS ARE LIKELY TO BE BRIEF AND
SEPARATED BY ACTIVE AND WARM SYSTEMS INITIALLY. ANY LASTING COLD IS
STILL AT LEAST TWO WEEKS AWAY...AND POSSIBLY LONGER.
&&
.AVIATION /14Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
MVFR CIGS SHOULD RISE AND SCATTER OUT FOR A TIME BY LATE MORNING
BEFORE MID/HIGH CLOUDS MOVE IN BY THE AFTERNOON AHEAD OF A LOW
PRESSURE SYSTEM OVER THE WESTERN GREAT LAKES. THE SYSTEM WILL
REMAIN FAR AWAY ENOUGH FROM THE FORECAST AREA THAT CONDITIONS WILL
REMAIN VFR THROUGH THE REST OF THE FORECAST PERIOD. SOUTH TO SOUTHWEST
SURFACE WINDS WILL INCREASE LATE TODAY INTO FRIDAY...GUSTS UP TO
20 KNOTS.
OUTLOOK...
FRIDAY AND SATURDAY...VFR/MVFR. A CHANCE OF SHOWERS.
SUNDAY...MAINLY VFR.
MONDAY...MVFR IN SHOWERS. WINDY.
&&
.MARINE...
GENERALLY TRANQUIL CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL TODAY AS A TRANSIENT
RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE CROSSES THE REGION. S-SW FLOW WILL FRESHEN
AGAIN TONIGHT HOWEVER AS A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM TRACKS TO OUR NW FROM
THE WESTERN GREAT LAKES INTO NORTHERN QUEBEC. SMALL CRAFT ADVISORIES
ARE IN EFFECT TONIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY.
RELATIVELY TRANQUIL CONDITIONS ALONG WITH EXCEPTIONALLY MILD
TEMPERATURES WILL RETURN FOR THE WEEKEND AS HIGH PRESSURE NOSES
ACROSS THE LOWER GREAT LAKES FROM THE SOUTHEASTERN U.S. WARM AND
MOIST AIR SURGING NORTH AHEAD OF DEVELOPING LOW PRESSURE OVER THE
GREAT PLAINS MAY RESULT IN FOG ON THE LAKES SATURDAY INTO SUNDAY.
THIS LOW WILL CONTINUE TO DEEPEN INTO AN INTENSE LOW AS IT CROSSES
THE WESTERN GREAT LAKES MONDAY...PUSHING A COLD FRONT ACROSS THE
LAKES. THIS MAY RESULT IN GALES ON THE LAKES MONDAY INTO MONDAY
NIGHT.
&&
.BUF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NY...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 5 AM TO 7 PM EST FRIDAY FOR LEZ020.
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 7 PM THIS EVENING TO 7 PM EST
FRIDAY FOR LEZ040-041.
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 5 AM TO 7 PM EST FRIDAY FOR
LOZ030-042>045.
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 5 AM TO 7 PM EST FRIDAY FOR
SLZ022-024.
&&
SYNOPSIS...FRANKLIN/WOOD
NEAR TERM...FRANKLIN/WOOD
SHORT TERM...SMITH
LONG TERM...HITCHCOCK/SMITH
AVIATION...FRANKLIN/WOOD
MARINE...FRANKLIN/WOODHazardous weather outlook, Dec 10, 4:43 AM EST, 4 hours 36 minutes before
HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BUFFALO NY 443 AM EST THU DEC 10 2015 NYZ001>008-010>014-019>021-085-110945- NIAGARA-ORLEANS-MONROE-WAYNE-NORTHERN CAYUGA-OSWEGO-JEFFERSON-LEWIS- NORTHERN ERIE-GENESEE-WYOMING-LIVINGSTON-ONTARIO-CHAUTAUQUA- CATTARAUGUS-ALLEGANY-SOUTHERN ERIE- 443 AM EST THU DEC 10 2015 THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR WESTERN AND NORTH CENTRAL NEW YORK. .DAY ONE...TODAY AND TONIGHT. THE PROBABILITY OF WIDESPREAD HAZARDOUS WEATHER IS LOW. .DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY. A STRONG AREA OF LOW PRESSURE IS FORECAST TO MOVE THROUGH THE GREAT LAKES REGION MONDAY. THIS SYSTEM MAY BRING STRONG DAMAGING WINDS ACROSS MUCH OF WESTERN AND NORTH CENTRAL NEW YORK...WITH THE STRONGEST WINDS LIKELY NORTHEAST OF LAKES ERIE AND ONTARIO. .SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT... SPOTTER ACTIVATION IS NOT EXPECTED AT THIS TIME. THIS PRODUCT...ALONG WITH OTHER WATCHES...WARNINGS...ADVISORIES... AND STATEMENTS ISSUED BY THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE OFFICE IN BUFFALO CAN BE FOUND ON THE INTERNET AT HTTP://WWW.WEATHER.GOV/BUF LEZ020-040-041-LOZ030-042>045-062>065-SLZ022-024-110945- UPPER NIAGARA RIVER AND BUFFALO HARBOR- LAKE ERIE NEARSHORE WATERS FROM RIPLEY TO DUNKIRK- LAKE ERIE NEARSHORE WATERS FROM DUNKIRK TO BUFFALO- LOWER NIAGARA RIVER- LAKE ONTARIO NEARSHORE WATERS FROM THE NIAGARA RIVER TO HAMLIN BEACH- LAKE ONTARIO NEARSHORE WATERS FROM HAMLIN BEACH TO SODUS BAY- LAKE ONTARIO NEARSHORE WATERS FROM SODUS BAY TO MEXICO BAY- LAKE ONTARIO NEARSHORE WATERS FROM MEXICO BAY TO THE SAINT LAWRENCE RIVER- LAKE ONTARIO OPEN WATERS FROM THE NIAGARA RIVER TO HAMLIN BEACH- LAKE ONTARIO OPEN WATERS FROM HAMLIN BEACH TO SODUS BAY- LAKE ONTARIO OPEN WATERS FROM SODUS BAY TO MEXICO BAY- LAKE ONTARIO OPEN WATERS FROM MEXICO BAY TO THE SAINT LAWRENCE RIVER- SAINT LAWRENCE RIVER FROM CAPE VINCENT TO OGDENSBURG- SAINT LAWRENCE RIVER FROM OGDENSBURG TO SAINT REGIS- 443 AM EST THU DEC 10 2015 THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR THE NEW YORK WATERS OF LAKE ERIE...LAKE ONTARIO...AND THE SAINT LAWRENCE RIVER. .DAY ONE...TODAY AND TONIGHT. THE PROBABILITY OF WIDESPREAD HAZARDOUS WEATHER IS LOW. .DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY. A STRONG AREA OF LOW PRESSURE IS FORECAST TO MOVE THROUGH THE GREAT LAKES REGION MONDAY. THIS SYSTEM MAY BRING GALE FORCE WINDS TO LAKES ERIE AND ONTARIO ON MONDAY. .SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT... SPOTTER ACTIVATION IS NOT EXPECTED AT THIS TIME. THIS PRODUCT...ALONG WITH OTHER WATCHES...WARNINGS...ADVISORIES... AND STATEMENTS ISSUED BY THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE OFFICE IN BUFFALO CAN BE FOUND ON THE INTERNET AT HTTP://WWW.WEATHER.GOV/BUF SMITH
Nearby
Small Craft Advisories in New York, 2015Every small craft advisory in 2015
Sources
The product and its follow-ups from the Iowa Environmental Mesonet's archive of National Weather Service and Storm Prediction Center text.