Alert archive / New York / Flash Flood Warnings in 2015

Flash Flood Warning 2, NWS Buffalo, NY

March 15, 2015Erie County, New York

NWS Buffalo, NY issued this flash flood warning at Mar 15, 2015, 3:29 AM EDT for Erie County, New York. It was in force for 6 hr. No storm report in the archive falls inside the area while it was in force.

The area

The outline as issued.

The facts

Issued: Mar 15, 2015, 3:29 AM EDT (07:29 UTC)
Expired: Mar 15, 2015, 9:15 AM EDT
In force: 6 hr
Issued by: NWS Buffalo, NY
Area: Storm-based polygon
Flood severity: None

County Erie County, NY

The radar

The Buffalo radar (KBUF), 15 km from the middle of the area, began a volume at 07:34 UTC, the scan nearest the moment this went out.

Open the radar archive at this moment

The archived warnings, watches and discussions in force at that minute are drawn over the scan, this one among them.

The nearest sounding before it

Buffalo Intl Airport, NY (KBUF), launched 00:00Z, 7.5 hours before the alert went out and 13 km from the middle of its area. This is the routine balloon launch nearest before it, the air the forecaster had in hand, not a measurement taken for the alert.

Skew-T log-p

Temperature in red, dew point in green, the mixed-layer parcel dashed.

Hodograph

The wind turning with height, colored by layer: ground to 1 km, 1 to 3 km, 3 to 6 km, 6 to 10 km.

Mixed-layer CAPE: 0 J/kg
Mixed-layer CIN: No buoyant parcel
Mixed-layer LCL: 623 m above ground
0-6 km bulk shear: 81 kt
0-1 km storm-relative helicity: -88 m²/s²
0-3 km storm-relative helicity: -64 m²/s²
Significant tornado parameter: 0.0
Supercell composite: 0.0

Open this sounding in Storm Lab

The text

As transmitted, in the capitals the NWS used until 2016.

144 
WGUS51 KBUF 150729
FFWBUF
NYC029-151315-
/O.NEW.KBUF.FF.W.0002.150315T0729Z-150315T1315Z/
/00000.0.ER.000000T0000Z.000000T0000Z.000000T0000Z.OO/

BULLETIN - EAS ACTIVATION REQUESTED
FLASH FLOOD WARNING
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BUFFALO NY
329 AM EDT SUN MAR 15 2015

THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN BUFFALO HAS ISSUED A

* FLASH FLOOD WARNING FOR...
  CAZENOVIA CREEK IN CENTRAL ERIE COUNTY IN WESTERN NEW YORK...
  THIS INCLUDES WEST SENECA...

* UNTIL 915 AM EDT

* AT 315 AM EDT...ICE JAM FLASH FLOODING WAS INDICATED BY LOCAL 
  STREAM GAUGES.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

AT 315 AM EDT...CAZENOVIA CREEK AT EBENEZER WAS AT 10.1 FEET AND 
RISING. MINOR FLOODING CAN BE EXPECTED AT THIS LEVEL...INCLUDING 
FLOODING IN LOW LYING AREAS EST OF ORCHARD PARK ROAD AND SOUTH OF 
RIDGE ROAD IN WEST SENECA. SOME INUNDATION OF CAZENOVIA PARK IN 
SOUTH BUFFALO WILL ALSO BE POSSIBLE. 

SHOULD THE CREEK RISE ABOVE 12 FEET...LOCALIZED FLOODING WILL 
POSSIBLE IN THE VICINITY OF SOUTHGATE PLAZA IN WEST SENECA WITH 
CONSIDERABLE FLOODING IN THE CAZENOVIA PARK AREA OF SOUTH BUFFALO 
AND WEST SENECA. 

BE ESPECIALLY CAUTIOUS AT NIGHT WHEN IT IS HARDER TO RECOGNIZE THE
DANGERS OF FLOODING. IF FLASH FLOODING IS OBSERVED ACT QUICKLY. MOVE
UP TO HIGHER GROUND TO ESCAPE FLOOD WATERS. DO NOT STAY IN AREAS 
SUBJECT TO FLOODING WHEN WATER BEGINS RISING.

&&

LAT...LON 4286 7882 4283 7868 4276 7863 4275 7866
      4280 7877 4285 7883

$$

RSH

2 follow-up statements

687 
WGUS71 KBUF 151034
FFSBUF

FLASH FLOOD STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BUFFALO NY
634 AM EDT SUN MAR 15 2015

NYC029-151315-
/O.CON.KBUF.FF.W.0002.000000T0000Z-150315T1315Z/
/00000.0.ER.000000T0000Z.000000T0000Z.000000T0000Z.OO/
ERIE NY-
634 AM EDT SUN MAR 15 2015

...A FLASH FLOOD WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 915 AM EDT FOR 
CAZENOVIA CREEK IN CENTRAL ERIE COUNTY...

AT 626 AM EDT...THE CAZENOVIA CREEK LEVEL AT EBENEZER WAS 10.4 FEET 
AND NEARLY STEADY. THIS IS IN RESPONSE TO AN ICE JAM FOUND BETWEEN 
ORCHARD PARK ROAD AND RIDGE ROAD. AT THIS LEVEL...MINOR FLOODING CAN 
BE EXPECTED...INCLUDING FLOODING IN LOW LYING AREAS EAST OF ORCHARD 
PARK ROAD AND SOUTH OF RIDGE ROAD IN WEST SENECA. SOME INUNDATION OF 
CAZENOVIA PARK IN SOUTH BUFFALO WILL ALSO BE POSSIBLE.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

DO NOT DRIVE YOUR VEHICLE INTO AREAS WHERE THE WATER COVERS THE 
ROADWAY. THE WATER DEPTH MAY BE TOO GREAT TO ALLOW YOUR CAR TO CROSS 
SAFELY. MOVE TO HIGHER GROUND.

&&

LAT...LON 4286 7882 4283 7868 4276 7863 4275 7866
      4280 7877 4285 7883

$$

RSH

398 
WGUS71 KBUF 151315
FFSBUF

FLASH FLOOD STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BUFFALO NY
915 AM EDT SUN MAR 15 2015

NYC029-151324-
/O.EXP.KBUF.FF.W.0002.000000T0000Z-150315T1315Z/
/00000.0.ER.000000T0000Z.000000T0000Z.000000T0000Z.OO/
ERIE NY-
915 AM EDT SUN MAR 15 2015

...THE FLASH FLOOD WARNING FOR CAZENOVIA CREEK IN CENTRAL ERIE 
COUNTY WILL EXPIRE AT 915 AM EDT...

WHILE THE THREAT FOR FLASH FLOODING WITH RAPID RISES IN WATER LEVELS 
HAS ENDED ON CAZENOVIA CREEK...THE CREEK REMAINS ABOVE FLOOD STAGE 
AND THE FLASH FLOOD WARNING HAS BEEN REPLACED WITH A FLOOD WARNING 
AT THIS TIME.

LAT...LON 4286 7882 4283 7868 4276 7863 4275 7866
      4280 7877 4285 7883

$$

WOOD

The office that day

Everything else NWS Buffalo, NY issued on the same UTC day.

Issued	Product	Office	Counties	Lasted
Mar 15, 12:09 AM EDT	Flash Flood Warning	BUF	Erie	12 hr
Mar 15, 9:13 AM EDT	Areal Flood Warning	BUF	Erie	20 hr
Mar 15, 11:52 AM EDT	Areal Flood Warning	BUF	Erie	27 hr

Nearby

Flash Flood Warnings in New York, 2015 Every flash flood warning in 2015

Sources

The product and its follow-ups from the Iowa Environmental Mesonet's archive of National Weather Service and Storm Prediction Center text; the sounding from the Mesonet's radiosonde archive; radar from the NEXRAD Level II archive.