Alert archive / New York / Flash Flood Warnings in 2015

Flash Flood Warning 1, NWS Buffalo, NY

March 15, 2015Erie County, New York

NWS Buffalo, NY issued this flash flood warning at Mar 15, 2015, 12:09 AM EDT for Erie County, New York. It was in force for 12 hr. No storm report in the archive falls inside the area while it was in force.

The area

The outline as issued.

The facts

Issued: Mar 15, 2015, 12:09 AM EDT (04:09 UTC)
Expired: Mar 15, 2015, 12:00 PM EDT
In force: 12 hr
Issued by: NWS Buffalo, NY
Area: Storm-based polygon
Flood severity: None

County Erie County, NY

The radar

The Buffalo radar (KBUF), 11 km from the middle of the area, began a volume at 04:13 UTC, the scan nearest the moment this went out.

Open the radar archive at this moment

The archived warnings, watches and discussions in force at that minute are drawn over the scan, this one among them.

The nearest sounding before it

Buffalo Intl Airport, NY (KBUF), launched 00:00Z, 4.2 hours before the alert went out and 9 km from the middle of its area. This is the routine balloon launch nearest before it, the air the forecaster had in hand, not a measurement taken for the alert.

Skew-T log-p

Temperature in red, dew point in green, the mixed-layer parcel dashed.

Hodograph

The wind turning with height, colored by layer: ground to 1 km, 1 to 3 km, 3 to 6 km, 6 to 10 km.

Mixed-layer CAPE: 0 J/kg
Mixed-layer CIN: No buoyant parcel
Mixed-layer LCL: 623 m above ground
0-6 km bulk shear: 81 kt
0-1 km storm-relative helicity: -88 m²/s²
0-3 km storm-relative helicity: -64 m²/s²
Significant tornado parameter: 0.0
Supercell composite: 0.0

Open this sounding in Storm Lab

The text

As transmitted, in the capitals the NWS used until 2016.

093 
WGUS51 KBUF 150409
FFWBUF
NYC029-151000-
/O.NEW.KBUF.FF.W.0001.150315T0409Z-150315T1000Z/
/00000.0.ER.000000T0000Z.000000T0000Z.000000T0000Z.OO/

BULLETIN - EAS ACTIVATION REQUESTED
FLASH FLOOD WARNING
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BUFFALO NY
1209 AM EDT SUN MAR 15 2015

THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN BUFFALO HAS ISSUED A

* FLASH FLOOD WARNING FOR...
  BUFFALO CREEK IN CENTRAL ERIE COUNTY WESTERN NEW YORK...

* UNTIL 600 AM EDT

* AT 1157 PM EDT...WEST SENECA POLICE REPORTED FLASH FLOODING DUE TO 
ICE JAMMING ON BUFFALO CREEK NEAR THE LEXINGTON GREEN SUBDIVISION. 
FLOODING MAY ALSO OCCUR FROM THE HARLEM ROAD BRIDGE OVER BUFFALO 
CREEK EASTWARD ALONG THE CREEK INTO THE TOWN OF ELMA DUE TO ICE 
JAMS.  

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

THE CREEK IS AT 9.17 FEET AND STILL RISING. THIS IS MAJOR FLOOD 
STAGE. RESIDENTS ALONG BUFFALO CREEK ESPECIALLY IN THE LEXINGTON 
GREEN SUBDIVISION SHOULD PREPARE TO EVACUATE IF FLOOD WATERS 
THREATEN THEIR HOMES.

BE ESPECIALLY CAUTIOUS AT NIGHT WHEN IT IS HARDER TO RECOGNIZE THE
DANGERS OF FLOODING. IF FLASH FLOODING IS OBSERVED ACT QUICKLY. MOVE
UP TO HIGHER GROUND TO ESCAPE FLOOD WATERS. DO NOT STAY IN AREAS
SUBJECT TO FLOODING WHEN WATER BEGINS RISING.

&&

LAT...LON 4287 7879 4286 7875 4286 7859 4284 7858
      4283 7860 4284 7877 4286 7880

$$

SMITH

2 follow-up statements

021 
WGUS71 KBUF 150722
FFSBUF

FLASH FLOOD STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BUFFALO NY
322 AM EDT SUN MAR 15 2015

NYC029-151000-
/O.CON.KBUF.FF.W.0001.000000T0000Z-150315T1000Z/
/00000.0.ER.000000T0000Z.000000T0000Z.000000T0000Z.OO/
ERIE NY-
322 AM EDT SUN MAR 15 2015

...A FLASH FLOOD WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 600 AM EDT FOR 
BUFFALO CREEK IN CENTRAL ERIE COUNTY...

* AT 315 AM EDT...THE BUFFALO CREEK AT GARDENVILLE WAS AT 10.18 FEET 
AND HOLDING STEADY...IN RESPONSE TO ICE JAMMING FURTHER DOWNSTREAM 
NEAR THE LEXINGTON GREEN SUBDIVISION. THIS CREEK LEVEL IS AT MAJOR 
FLOOD STAGE...AND WILL RESULT IN FLOODING ALONG THE LENGTH OF THE 
CREEK FROM THE HARLEM ROAD BRIDGE EASTWARD INTO THE TOWN OF ELMA. 

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

RESIDENTS ALONG BUFFALO CREEK...ESPECIALLY THOSE IN THE LEXINGTON 
GREEN SUBDIVISION...SHOULD PREPARE TO EVACUATE IF FLOOD WATERS 
THREATEN THEIR HOMES.

BE ESPECIALLY CAUTIOUS AT NIGHT WHEN IT IS HARDER TO RECOGNIZE THE
DANGERS OF FLOODING. IF FLASH FLOODING IS OBSERVED ACT QUICKLY. MOVE
UP TO HIGHER GROUND TO ESCAPE FLOOD WATERS. DO NOT STAY IN AREAS
SUBJECT TO FLOODING WHEN WATER BEGINS RISING.

&&

LAT...LON 4287 7879 4286 7875 4286 7859 4284 7858
      4283 7860 4284 7877 4286 7880

$$

JJR

283 
WGUS51 KBUF 150949
FFWBUF
NYC029-151600-
/O.EXT.KBUF.FF.W.0001.000000T0000Z-150315T1600Z/
/00000.0.ER.000000T0000Z.000000T0000Z.000000T0000Z.OO/

BULLETIN - EAS ACTIVATION REQUESTED
FLASH FLOOD WARNING
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BUFFALO NY
549 AM EDT SUN MAR 15 2015

THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN BUFFALO HAS EXTENDED THE

* FLASH FLOOD WARNING FOR...
  BUFFALO CREEK IN CENTRAL ERIE COUNTY IN WESTERN NEW YORK...
  THIS INCLUDES THE TOWNS OF WEST SENECA AND ELMA...

* UNTIL NOON EDT

* AT 545 AM EDT...THE BUFFALO CREEK LEVEL AT GARDENVILLE CONTINUED   
  TO INDICATE FLASH FLOODING CAUSED BY AN ICE JAM SITUATED           
  FURTHER DOWNSTREAM...NEAR THE LEXINGTON GREEN SUBDIVISION. 

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

AT 545 AM EDT...THE BUFFALO CREEK AT GARDENVILLE WAS AT 10.6 FEET 
AND SLOWLY RISING...WHICH IS AT MAJOR FLOOD STAGE. AT THIS LEVEL... 
WIDESPREAD FLOODING IS LIKELY IN LOW LYING AREAS ADJOINING BUFFALO 
CREEK IN THE TOWNS OF ELMA AND WEST SENECA. RESIDENTS ALONG BUFFALO 
CREEK...ESPECIALLY THOSE IN THE LEXINGTON GREEN SUBDIVISION...SHOULD 
PREPARE TO EVACUATE IF FLOOD WATERS THREATEN THEIR HOMES. 

BE ESPECIALLY CAUTIOUS AT NIGHT WHEN IT IS HARDER TO RECOGNIZE THE
DANGERS OF FLOODING. IF FLASH FLOODING IS OBSERVED ACT QUICKLY. MOVE
UP TO HIGHER GROUND TO ESCAPE FLOOD WATERS. DO NOT STAY IN AREAS
SUBJECT TO FLOODING WHEN WATER BEGINS RISING.

DO NOT DRIVE YOUR VEHICLE INTO AREAS WHERE THE WATER COVERS THE
ROADWAY. THE WATER DEPTH MAY BE TOO GREAT TO ALLOW YOUR CAR TO CROSS
SAFELY. MOVE TO HIGHER GROUND.

&&

LAT...LON 4287 7879 4286 7875 4286 7859 4284 7858
      4283 7860 4284 7877 4286 7880

$$

JJR

The office that day

Everything else NWS Buffalo, NY issued on the same UTC day.

Issued	Product	Office	Counties	Lasted
Mar 15, 3:29 AM EDT	Flash Flood Warning	BUF	Erie	6 hr
Mar 15, 9:13 AM EDT	Areal Flood Warning	BUF	Erie	20 hr
Mar 15, 11:52 AM EDT	Areal Flood Warning	BUF	Erie	27 hr

Nearby

Flash Flood Warnings in New York, 2015 Every flash flood warning in 2015

Sources

The product and its follow-ups from the Iowa Environmental Mesonet's archive of National Weather Service and Storm Prediction Center text; the sounding from the Mesonet's radiosonde archive; radar from the NEXRAD Level II archive.