Red Flag Warning 4, NWS Denver/Boulder, CO

940 
WWUS85 KBOU 310055
RFWBOU

URGENT - FIRE WEATHER MESSAGE
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DENVER/BOULDER CO
655 PM MDT MON MAR 30 2015

COZ242-248-249-310200-
/O.EXP.KBOU.FW.W.0004.000000T0000Z-150331T0100Z/
NORTHEAST WELD COUNTY-LOGAN COUNTY-WASHINGTON COUNTY-
655 PM MDT MON MAR 30 2015

...RED FLAG WARNING WILL EXPIRE AT 7 PM MDT THIS EVENING FOR WIND
AND LOW RELATIVE HUMIDITY FOR PARTS OF THE NORTHEAST COLORADO
PLAINS...

TEMPERATURES HAVE BEGUN COOLING THIS EVENING AND WINDS HAVE
TAPERED OFF. EXTREME FIRE BEHAVIOR IS NO LONGER EXPECTED THIS
EVENING. ANOTHER WARM DAY IS IN STORE FOR NORTHEAST COLORADO ON
TUESDAY. MONITOR THE LATEST FORECASTS FOR ANY WATCHES OR WARNINGS.

$$

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DENVER/BOULDER CO
1050 AM MDT MON MAR 30 2015

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 1043 AM MDT MON MAR 30 2015

HAVE UPDATED GRIDS TO INCREASE WINDS AND REDUCE DEWPOINTS NEAR THE
WYOMING BORDER. WE SHOULD APPROACH BUT NOT REACH RED FLAG
CONDITIONS. SOME GUSTS TO 30 MPH WILL ALSO CONTINUE IN THE
MOUNTAINS.  TUESDAY THERE WILL BE A DEVELOPING LEE TROUGH IN
EASTERN COLORADO WHICH WILL INCREASE SOUTHERLY WINDS...WILL
ADDRESS ANY POSSIBLE RED FLAG CONTITIONS WITH AFTERNOON FORECAST.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY THROUGH TONIGHT )
ISSUED AT 402 AM MDT MON MAR 30 2015

DRY AND STABLE AIR OVER OUR AREA TODAY. THERE WILL LIKELY BE BITS
OF HIGH CLOUDINESS AT TIMES...ESPECIALLY THE SOUTHERN HALF. MAYBE
ENOUGH MOISTURE FOR SOME HIGH BASED CONVECTIVE CLOUDS OVER THE
MOUNTAINS AS WELL..BUT NOT MUCH. THERE WILL BE A WEAK WIND SHIFT
WITH NORTH TO NORTHWEST WINDS DEVELOPING ON THE PLAINS THIS
MORNING...THIS WILL RESTRAIN TEMPERATURES SLIGHTLY BUT IT WILL
STILL BE WARMER THAN YESTERDAY. CURRENT FORECAST TEMPS LOOK
GOOD...DROPPED MOUNTAIN LOWS SLIGHTLY TONIGHT AS IT LOOKS TO BE
MOSTLY CLEAR AND DRY AGAIN.

.LONG TERM...(TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY)
ISSUED AT 402 AM MDT MON MAR 30 2015

ON TUESDAY...THE RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE WILL BE OVER COLORADO WITH
A MOSTLY DRY AND CONTINUED WARM AIRMASS IN PLACE. TEMPERATURES WL
WARM INTO THE UPPER 70S FOR DENVER...THE RECORD IS 81. TUESDAY
NIGHT INTO WEDNESDAY THE UPPER RIDGE WILL SHIFT TO THE EAST...WITH
THE FLOW ALOFT INCREASING FM THE WEST/SOUTHWEST. A SYSTEM IS
PROGGED TO BRUSH ACROSS NORTHERN COLORADO...WITH MOST OF THE
ENERGY WELL TO THE NORTH ON WEDNESDAY. IT WILL REMAIN QUITE MILD
BUT THE INCREASED CLOUD COVER WILL OFFSET THE TEMPERATURES SOME
FM TUESDAY. IT WILL BE BREEZY AS WELL AS A WEAK FRONT PASSES
THROUGH NORTHEAST COLORADO. THE INTERACTIVE SOUNDINGS SHOW AN
INVERTED V TYPE PROFILE WITH MOST THE MOISTURE AOA 450 MB. MAIN
RESULT FM THIS WILL BE MORE GUSTY WINDS AND MAYBE JUST SOME BRIEF
LIGHT RAIN SHOWERS. MAIN CHANGE IN THE WEATHER WILL OCCUR THURSDAY
INTO FRIDAY AS THE MDLS STILL BRING WHAT NOW APPEARS TO BE A
FAIRLY STRONG TROUGH...WITH STRONG QG ASCENT DEVELOPING FM THE
WEST ON THURSDAY. THE TROUGH ITSELF IS PROGGED TO MOVING ACROSS
COLORADO THURSDAY NIGHT. TEMPERATURES WILL BE MUCH COLDER.
RAIN/SNOW MIX THURSDAY AFTN...WL CHANGE TO SNOW LATE THURSDAY
AFTERNOON AND THURSDAY NIGHT. SOME SIGNIFICANT ACCUMULATIONS IF
IT GETS COLD ENOUGH. THE GFS HAS AN UPPER LEVEL JET ORIENTED FM
SOUTHWEST TO NORTHEAST ACROSS COLORADO ON THURSDAY WITH GOOD MID
LEVEL INSTBY. NORTHERN COLORADO ON THE COLD SIDE OF THE JET IF
THIS SOLUTION PANS OUT. WL KEEP CHC POPS THROUGH FRIDAY AS WELL.
THE AIRMASS WILL BE DRIER OVER THE WEEKEND AS THIS SYSTEM SHIFTS
TO THE EAST AND A RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE TRANSLATES OVER CO.
TEMPERATURES WILL START TO RECOVER AT THAT TIME AS WELL.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE TAFS THROUGH 12Z TUESDAY MORNING)
ISSUED AT 402 AM MDT MON MAR 30 2015

VFR THROUGH TONIGHT.

&&

.BOU WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

UPDATE...RTG
SHORT TERM...GIMMESTAD
LONG TERM...COOPER
AVIATION...GIMMESTAD

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DENVER/BOULDER CO
1042 AM MDT MON MAR 30 2015

COZ030>051-310445-
JACKSON COUNTY BELOW 9000 FEET-
WEST JACKSON AND WEST GRAND COUNTIES ABOVE 9000 FEET-
GRAND AND SUMMIT COUNTIES BELOW 9000 FEET-
SOUTH AND EAST JACKSON/LARIMER/NORTH AND NORTHEAST GRAND/
NORTHWEST BOULDER COUNTIES ABOVE 9000 FEET-
SOUTH AND SOUTHEAST GRAND/WEST CENTRAL AND SOUTHWEST BOULDER/
GILPIN/CLEAR CREEK/SUMMIT/NORTH AND WEST PARK COUNTIES ABOVE
9000 FEET-LARIMER AND BOULDER COUNTIES BETWEEN 6000 AND 9000 FEET-
JEFFERSON AND WEST DOUGLAS COUNTIES ABOVE 6000 FEET/GILPIN/CLEAR
CREEK/NORTHEAST PARK COUNTIES BELOW 9000 FEET-
CENTRAL AND SOUTHEAST PARK COUNTY-
LARIMER COUNTY BELOW 6000 FEET/NORTHWEST WELD COUNTY-
BOULDER AND JEFFERSON COUNTIES BELOW 6000 FEET/WEST BROOMFIELD
COUNTY-
NORTH DOUGLAS COUNTY BELOW 6000 FEET/DENVER/WEST ADAMS AND
ARAPAHOE COUNTIES/EAST BROOMFIELD COUNTY-
ELBERT/CENTRAL AND EAST DOUGLAS COUNTIES ABOVE 6000 FEET-
NORTHEAST WELD COUNTY-CENTRAL AND SOUTH WELD COUNTY-MORGAN COUNTY-
CENTRAL AND EAST ADAMS AND ARAPAHOE COUNTIES-
NORTH AND NORTHEAST ELBERT COUNTY BELOW 6000 FEET/NORTH LINCOLN
COUNTY-
SOUTHEAST ELBERT COUNTY BELOW 6000 FEET/SOUTH LINCOLN COUNTY-
LOGAN COUNTY-WASHINGTON COUNTY-SEDGWICK COUNTY-PHILLIPS COUNTY-
1042 AM MDT MON MAR 30 2015

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR NORTHEAST AND NORTH CENTRAL
COLORADO.

.DAY ONE...TODAY AND TONIGHT

HIGH PRESSURE AND A DRY AIRMASS WILL PRODUCE ANOTHER SUNNY DAY.
TEMPERATURES WILL RISE INTO THE 70S ON THE PLAINS AND 50S TO
LOWER 60S IN THE MOUNTAINS. HIGHER ELEVATIONS WILL SEE SOME WIND
GUSTS TO 30 MPH...WHILE THE PLAINS WILL HAVE SOME GUSTS NEAR 25
MPH NEAR THE WYOMING BORDER.  HUMIDITIES IN WINDY AREAS ON THE
PLAINS WILL DROP INTO THE TEENS.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY

UNSEASONABLY WARM AND DRY CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE ON TUESDAY. A
DEEPENING SURFACE TROUGH MAY INCREASE SOUTHERLY WINDS...WHICH MAY
INCREASE FIRE DANGER ACROSS THE NORTHEAST PLAINS. A WEAK SYSTEM
WILL BRUSH ACROSS COLORADO ON WEDNESDAY TO INCREASE WINDS AND
BRING A SLIGHT CHANCE OF HIGH BASED SHOWERS IN THE AFTERNOON. A
STRONGER SYSTEM IS EXPECTED TO MOVE INTO THE REGION THURSDAY INTO
FRIDAY. TEMPERATURES WILL BE MUCH COOLER WITH A CHANCE OF SNOW IN
THE MOUNTAINS ALONG WITH A CHANCE OF RAIN AND SNOW OVER THE
NORTHEAST PLAINS. IT WILL BE DRIER AND WARMER BY THE WEEKEND.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

SPOTTER ACTIVATION WILL NOT BE NEEDED TODAY OR TONIGHT.

RTG/KRIEDERMAN