Red Flag Warning 7, NWS Birmingham, AL

Autauga County, AL, Barbour County, AL, Bibb County, AL, Bullock County, AL, Calhoun County, AL, Chambers County, AL, Chilton County, AL, Clay County, AL, Cleburne County, AL, Coosa County, AL, Dallas County, AL, Elmore County, AL, Greene County, AL, Hale County, AL, Jefferson County, AL, Lee County, AL, Lowndes County, AL, Macon County, AL, Marengo County, AL, Montgomery County, AL, Perry County, AL, Pickens County, AL, Pike County, AL, Randolph County, AL, Russell County, AL, Shelby County, AL, St. Clair County, AL, Sumter County, AL, Talladega County, AL, Tallapoosa County, AL, Tuscaloosa County, AL

219 
WWUS84 KBMX 181829
RFWBMX

URGENT - FIRE WEATHER MESSAGE
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BIRMINGHAM AL
1229 PM CST WED FEB 18 2015

ALZ019-021>050-191200-
/O.CAN.KBMX.FW.W.0007.000000T0000Z-150219T0000Z/
/O.CON.KBMX.FW.A.0006.150219T1700Z-150220T0000Z/
CALHOUN-CLEBURNE-PICKENS-TUSCALOOSA-JEFFERSON-SHELBY-ST. CLAIR-
TALLADEGA-CLAY-RANDOLPH-SUMTER-GREENE-HALE-PERRY-BIBB-CHILTON-
COOSA-TALLAPOOSA-CHAMBERS-MARENGO-DALLAS-AUTAUGA-LOWNDES-ELMORE-
MONTGOMERY-MACON-BULLOCK-LEE-RUSSELL-PIKE-BARBOUR-
1229 PM CST WED FEB 18 2015

...FIRE WEATHER WATCH REMAINS IN EFFECT FROM THURSDAY MORNING
THROUGH THURSDAY AFTERNOON FOR COUNTIES SOUTH OF AND INCLUDING
LAMAR...FAYETTE...JEFFERSON...ST CLAIR...CALHOUN...AND CLEBURNE...

...RED FLAG WARNING IS CANCELLED FOR TODAY...

THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN BIRMINGHAM HAS CANCELLED THE RED
FLAG WARNING. A FIRE WEATHER WATCH REMAINS IN EFFECT FROM
THURSDAY MORNING THROUGH THURSDAY AFTERNOON. 


* RELATIVE HUMIDITY...MAY DROP BELOW 25 PERCENT FOR SEVERAL HOURS
  ON THURSDAY.

* IMPACTS...THE DRY AIRMASS MAY RESULT IN CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER
  CONDITIONS. OUTDOOR BURNING IS NOT RECOMMENDED.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

A FIRE WEATHER WATCH MEANS THAT CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER CONDITIONS
ARE FORECAST TO OCCUR. LISTEN FOR LATER FORECASTS AND POSSIBLE
RED FLAG WARNINGS.

&&


$$

ALZ012-013-015-191200-
/O.CON.KBMX.FW.A.0006.150219T1700Z-150220T0000Z/
LAMAR-FAYETTE-WALKER-
1229 PM CST WED FEB 18 2015

...FIRE WEATHER WATCH REMAINS IN EFFECT FROM THURSDAY MORNING
THROUGH THURSDAY AFTERNOON FOR COUNTIES SOUTH OF AND INCLUDING
LAMAR...FAYETTE...JEFFERSON...ST CLAIR...CALHOUN...AND CLEBURNE...

A FIRE WEATHER WATCH REMAINS IN EFFECT FROM THURSDAY MORNING
THROUGH THURSDAY AFTERNOON. 

* WINDS...WILL BE FROM THE NORTHWEST 5 TO 10 MPH.

* RELATIVE HUMIDITY...MAY DROP BELOW 25 PERCENT FOR SEVERAL HOURS
  ON THURSDAY.

* IMPACTS...THE DRY AIRMASS MAY RESULT IN CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER
  CONDITIONS. OUTDOOR BURNING IS NOT RECOMMENDED.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

A FIRE WEATHER WATCH MEANS THAT CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER CONDITIONS
ARE FORECAST TO OCCUR. LISTEN FOR LATER FORECASTS AND POSSIBLE
RED FLAG WARNINGS.

&&

$$

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BIRMINGHAM AL
1130 PM CST TUE FEB 17 2015

.UPDATE...
AVIATION DISCUSSION.

&&

.DISCUSSION...

TEMPERATURES HAVE ALREADY FALLEN AS LOW AS SOME MODEL GUIDANCE
SUGGESTED FOR OVERNIGHT LOWS. LIGHT WINDS REMAIN IN PLACE AND HAVE
NUDGED DOWN THE FORECAST LOWS A COUPLE OF DEGREES FOR SOME SPOTS.
AN UPSTREAM CLIPPER OVER MISSOURI AND ARKANSAS IS PRODUCING
SNOW...BUT MOISTURE IS QUITE LIMITED. STILL EXPECTING THE BEST
COMBINATION OF LIFT AND MOISTURE TO REMAIN TO OUR NORTH AND HAVE
MADE NO CHANGES TO THE FORECAST FOR FLURRIES ACROSS THE NORTH
AROUND DAYBREAK.

87/GRANTHAM

&&

.AVIATION...
06Z TAF DISCUSSION.

VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED OVER THE NEXT 24 HOURS. BKN DECK WILL
CROSS THE AREA EARLY THIS MORNING...BUT CIGS SHOULD REMAIN ABOVE
3KFT. WINDS TONIGHT WILL BE LIGHT FROM THE NORTHWEST...INCREASING IN
INTENSITY AFTER DAYBREAK. NORTHWEST WINDS WILL BE RATHER STRONG
TOMORROW...WITH GUSTS UP TO 25-26KTS POSSIBLE. WINDS DO DIMINISH
AROUND 19/00Z...TO 8-10KTS.

14

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION...
/ISSUED 325 PM CST TUE FEB 17 2015/

A COLD DAY ACROSS CENTRAL ALABAMA WITH ALMOST EVERYONE STAYING
BELOW 40S. SOME LOCATIONS IN THE SOUTHEAST TOPPED 40 LAST HOUR BUT
A FEW LOCATIONS ARE STILL BELOW FREEZING IN THE FAR NORTH. THE
COLD TREND CONTINUES THROUGH THE END OF THE WORK WEEK WITH ANOTHER
ARCTIC BLAST COMING THROUGH TOMORROW. A SHORTWAVE WILL BRING SOME
FLURRIES/SNOW SHOWERS TO THE NORTHERN THIRD OF THE AREA ON
WEDNESDAY ON THE LEADING EDGE OF THE ARCTIC AIRMASS. RECORD
TEMPERATURES WILL BE POSSIBLE THURSDAY MORNING DEPENDING ON WHERE
THE SURFACE RIDGE SETTLES AND RECORD LOW MAXES WILL BE POSSIBLE
THURSDAY AFTERNOON.

WE TRANSITION INTO ANOTHER POTENTIAL WINTRY MIX ON FRIDAY AND
FRIDAY EVENING. WITH FRIDAY MORNING TEMPERATURES IN THE MID TEENS
TO LOWER 20S...THE RUSH WILL BE ON TO ERODE THE COLD AIR BEFORE
THE MOISTURE GETS IN. THE GFS AND NAM ARE VERY BULLISH WITH THEIR
QPF ACROSS THE NORTH FRIDAY. THOSE FORECAST SOUNDINGS INDICATE
THERE COULD BE SOME PROBLEMS BUT CONFIDENCE REMAINS RATHER LOW AS
WE AGAIN ARE ON THE EDGE OF TOO WARM AND JUST COLD ENOUGH. WILL
PUT A LOW CONFIDENCE NUMBER IN THE HWO. WARMER AIR IS DEFINITELY
FORECAST INTO THE WESTERN 2/3RDS OF THE CWA BY FRIDAY EVENING BUT
WEDGE AFFECTS IN THE EAST MAY LINGER LONG ENOUGH THAT FREEZING
RAIN WILL BE POSSIBLE IN A FEW AREAS THROUGH THE OVERNIGHT. THESE
DETAILS WILL HAVE TO BE WORKED OUT AS WE GET CLOSER TO THE EVENT.

TEMPERATURE WILL MODERATE THROUGH THE WEEKEND WITH A DECENT CHANCE
OF RAIN/SHOWERS ACROSS THE NORTHERN HALF OF THE CWA AND LESSER
CHANCES ACROSS THE SOUTH. RAIN/SHOWERS WILL MOST LIKELY PASS
THROUGH THE ENTIRE CWA SUNDAY OR MONDAY ALONG THE LEADING EDGE OF
ANOTHER COLD AIR MASS.

88

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
GADSDEN     22  35   9  27  15 /  10  10   0   0  10
ANNISTON    24  40  11  29  16 /  10  10   0   0  10
BIRMINGHAM  23  41  12  31  18 /  10  10   0   0  10
TUSCALOOSA  26  43  17  35  21 /  10   0   0   0  10
CALERA      26  43  15  32  21 /  10  10   0   0  10
AUBURN      27  46  17  33  20 /   0   0   0   0  10
MONTGOMERY  28  48  20  37  22 /   0   0   0   0  10
TROY        26  50  21  38  22 /   0   0   0   0  10

&&

.BMX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
HARD FREEZE WATCH FROM LATE WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY
MORNING FOR ALL OF CENTRAL ALABAMA.

&&

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BIRMINGHAM AL
317 PM CST TUE FEB 17 2015

ALZ011>015-017>050-190030-
MARION-LAMAR-FAYETTE-WINSTON-WALKER-BLOUNT-ETOWAH-CALHOUN-CHEROKEE-
CLEBURNE-PICKENS-TUSCALOOSA-JEFFERSON-SHELBY-ST. CLAIR-TALLADEGA-
CLAY-RANDOLPH-SUMTER-GREENE-HALE-PERRY-BIBB-CHILTON-COOSA-TALLAPOOSA-
CHAMBERS-MARENGO-DALLAS-AUTAUGA-LOWNDES-ELMORE-MONTGOMERY-MACON-
BULLOCK-LEE-RUSSELL-PIKE-BARBOUR-
317 PM CST TUE FEB 17 2015

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR THE COUNTIES SERVED BY THE
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE OFFICE IN BIRMINGHAM.

.DAY ONE...THE OUTLOOK THROUGH TONIGHT.

NO HAZARDOUS WEATHER IS EXPECTED AT THIS TIME.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY.

AN ARCTIC COLD FRONT WILL BLAST THROUGH THE REGION ON WEDNESDAY.
GUSTY WINDS WILL ACCOMPANY THE FRONT WITH SUSTAINED WINDS 15 TO
25 MPH WITH A FEW GUSTS UP TO 30 MPH POSSIBLE.

A COLD AND DRY AIR MASS WILL SETTLE OVER THE SOUTHEAST FOR MID
WEEK. A HIGH FIRE DANGER WILL BE POSSIBLE FOR BOTH WEDNESDAY AND
THURSDAY AFTERNOONS ACROSS CENTRAL ALABAMA. OUTDOOR BURNING IS
DISCOURAGED.

A VERY COLD AIR MASS WILL BE IN PLACE WEDNESDAY NIGHT INTO
THURSDAY MORNING WITH READINGS FROM THE SINGLE DIGITS ACROSS THE
FAR NORTH TO THE LOWER 20S ACROSS THE FAR SOUTHERN PORTIONS OF
CENTRAL ALABAMA. A HARD FREEZE IS EXPECTED. MIDDLE TEENS WILL BE
POSSIBLE AGAIN ON FRIDAY MORNING ACROSS THE NORTHEAST.

A WINTRY MIX OF PRECIPITATION WITH SNOW...POSSIBLY CHANGING OVER
TO FREEZING RAIN AND RAIN DURING THE DAY WILL BE POSSIBLE ACROSS
THE NORTHERN HALF OF CENTRAL ALABAMA ON FRIDAY DURING THE DAY AND
FOR THE NORTHEAST PORTIONS LATE FRIDAY NIGHT.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

ACTIVATION OF EMERGENCY MANAGEMENT MAY BE NEEDED ON FRIDAY.

08/MK