Flash Flood Warning 22, NWS Birmingham, AL

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BIRMINGHAM AL
554 AM CST FRI DEC 25 2015

.UPDATE...
FOR 12Z AVIATION.

&&

.DISCUSSION...

WE WILL REMAIN DEEP INTO THE WARM SECTOR FOR SEVERAL MORE
DAYS...WHICH MEANS SEVERAL MORE DAYS (AT LEAST) OF STORMY AND MILD
CONDITIONS ACROSS CENTRAL ALABAMA. THERE WILL OBVIOUSLY BE PLENTY
OF MOISTURE...INSTABILITY...AND LIFT AVAILABLE FOR THUNDERSTORMS
TODAY...ESPECIALLY IN THE NORTHERN HALF OF THE STATE. MODELS ARE
QUITE INSISTENT THAT AXIS OF HIGHEST THUNDERSTORM COVERAGE WILL
SHIFT NORTHWARD THIS MORNING. THAT WOULD BE GOOD NEWS FOR THE
WATER LOGGED SOUTHERN COUNTIES. LETS JUST HOPE THAT THAT HEAVY
RAIN BAND DOES CONTINUE TO MOVE NORTH...SO THE NORTHERN AREAS DON'T
END UP IN A SIMILAR SITUATION.

BIG UPPER LEVEL LOW IS STILL FORECAST TO DIG INTO THE WEST COAST
STATES AND FOUR CORNERS AREA TODAY AND TOMORROW...AND THEN ROLL
EASTWARD SUNDAY AND MONDAY. COMPLEX SURFACE PATTERN DEVELOPS IN
RESPONSE TO THE APPROACHING UPPER LEVEL TROUGH...WITH A VERY WOUND
UP SURFACE LOW MOVING FROM WEST TEXAS TO THE GREAT LAKES...
TRAILING A COLD FRONT THAT WILL PUSH THROUGH HERE ON MONDAY. THE
FRONTAL PASSAGE IS A BIT FASTER THAN PREVIOUS MODEL RUNS...AND THE
ENDING OF THE PRECIPITATION ASSOCIATED WITH IT MAY COME EARLIER AS
WELL. WILL LOOK FOR SOME RUN TO RUN CONSISTENCY BEFORE TOTALLY
BUYING INTO A RAIN FREE MONDAY NIGHT/TUESDAY SCENARIO.

LOOKS LIKE WE MAY NOT GET INTO A SUBSTANTIALLY COLDER AIR MASS
UNTIL LATE NEXT WEEK...WHEN THE UPPER LEVEL PATTERN FINALLY
TRANSITIONS TO WESTERN RIDGE...EASTERN TROUGH CONFIGURATION.

/61/

&&

.AVIATION...
12Z TAF DISCUSSION.

SWATH OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS IS FINALLY MOVING TO THE NORTH.
THUS...WILL SHIFT OUR TSRA MENTION TO NOT INCLUDE MGM/TOI BUT
STILL AT TIMES IN THE NORTH. A FEW OF THE STORMS IN THE LATE
MORNING TOWARD EARLY AFTERNOON THAT MAY BE PRESENT HAVE THE
POTENTIAL TO BE STRONG. WILL FORGO MENTIONING THIS LOWER
PROBABILITY THREAT JUST YET. LOWER CIGS/VSBYS WILL ACCOMPANY
STORMS. AS FOR MGM/TOI SOME MVFR CIGS THIS AM. HOWEVER...ALL COULD
SEE SOME IFR AT TIMES THIS AM. CIGS COULD LIFT SOME ACROSS THE
SOUTH BY AFTERNOON IN THE ABSENCE OF SHOWER ACTIVITY. TONIGHT
WITH A LARGE AMOUNT OF LINGERING MOISTURE...FOG IS LIKELY ACROSS
THE SOUTH TAFS AT MGM/TOI. SHOWER ACTIVITY MAY STILL BE PRESENT TO
THE NORTH TO RESTRICT MORE WIDESPREAD DENSE FOG.

08

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...

THE UNUSUALLY WARM AND WET WEATHER PATTERN WILL CONTINUE ACROSS
CENTRAL ALABAMA THROUGH THE WEEKEND.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
GADSDEN     74  65  74  63  73 / 100  60  30  20  30
ANNISTON    75  66  75  64  74 / 100  40  20  20  30
BIRMINGHAM  75  69  76  65  75 / 100  50  30  30  30
TUSCALOOSA  76  68  77  67  76 /  80  50  30  30  30
CALERA      76  67  76  65  75 / 100  40  20  20  20
AUBURN      76  64  75  64  74 /  20  20  20  10  20
MONTGOMERY  79  65  79  63  78 /  20  20  20  20  20
TROY        79  66  79  63  77 /  20  20  10  10  20

&&

.BMX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FLASH FLOOD WATCH THROUGH THIS AFTERNOON FOR THE FOLLOWING
COUNTIES: BIBB...BLOUNT...CALHOUN...CHAMBERS...CHEROKEE...
CHILTON...CLAY...CLEBURNE...COOSA...ETOWAH...FAYETTE...
JEFFERSON...LAMAR...MARION...PICKENS...RANDOLPH...SHELBY...ST.
CLAIR...TALLADEGA...TALLAPOOSA...TUSCALOOSA...WALKER...WINSTON.

&&

61/08

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BIRMINGHAM AL
444 AM CST FRI DEC 25 2015

ALZ011>015-017>050-261345-
MARION-LAMAR-FAYETTE-WINSTON-WALKER-BLOUNT-ETOWAH-CALHOUN-CHEROKEE-
CLEBURNE-PICKENS-TUSCALOOSA-JEFFERSON-SHELBY-ST. CLAIR-TALLADEGA-
CLAY-RANDOLPH-SUMTER-GREENE-HALE-PERRY-BIBB-CHILTON-COOSA-TALLAPOOSA-
CHAMBERS-MARENGO-DALLAS-AUTAUGA-LOWNDES-ELMORE-MONTGOMERY-MACON-
BULLOCK-LEE-RUSSELL-PIKE-BARBOUR-
444 AM CST FRI DEC 25 2015

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR THE COUNTIES SERVED BY THE
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE OFFICE IN BIRMINGHAM.

.DAY ONE...THROUGH THE OVERNIGHT.

AS A SURFACE BOUNDARY SHIFTS SLOWLY NORTHWARD THIS MORNING...THE
OVERALL FLASH FLOODING THREAT WILL SHIFT NORTH AS WELL TO
GENERALLY ALONG AND NORTH OF A ALICEVILLE TO CLANTON TO LAFAYETTE
LINE. TO THE SOUTH OF HERE...HEAVY RAINS THAT HAVE OCCURRED WILL
KEEP THE AREAL FLOODING THREAT AROUND FOR AT LEAST THIS MORNING
ALONG WITH A RIVER FLOODING THREAT ALONG THE TALLAPOOSA AND
ALABAMA RIVER BASINS.

A SECONDARY THREAT WILL BE THAT OF A LIMITED SEVERE WEATHER
THREAT GENERALLY ALONG AND NORTH OF INTERSTATE 59 FROM EARLY
MORNING AND LASTING THROUGH AROUND 6 PM WITH STORMS ALONG AND
AHEAD OF A FRONT. THE MAIN THREAT WILL BE STRAIGHT LINE WINDS WITH
A LESSER HAIL THREAT. THE TORNADO THREAT IS LOW BUT NOT ZERO.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY.

RIVER FLOODING WILL REMAIN POSSIBLE THROUGH EARLY SUNDAY ALONG
PORTIONS OF THE ALABAMA AND TALLAPOOSA RIVER BASINS DUE TO RECENT
RAINFALL.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

ACTIVATION OF STORM SPOTTERS AND EMERGENCY MANAGEMENT MAY BE
NECESSARY AT TIMES TODAY.

08

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BIRMINGHAM AL
315 AM CST FRI DEC 25 2015

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0250 AM     FLASH FLOOD      4 SSE SANTUCK           32.58N 86.09W
12/25/2015                   ELMORE             AL   PUBLIC

            OVER 6 INCHES OF FLOWING WATER ON THE ROAD AT TALLASSEE
            HIGHWAY AND HAYNES ROAD.

&&

08