Small Craft Advisory 252, NWS Juneau, AK

358 
FZAK53 PAJK 142332
CWFYAK

MARINE FORECAST FOR YAKUTAT BAY
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JUNEAU AK
400 PM AKDT SAT MAR 14 2015 

COASTAL WATERS FORECAST FOR YAKUTAT BAY

WIND FORECASTS REFLECT THE PREDOMINANT SPEED AND DIRECTION
EXPECTED. SEA FORECASTS REPRESENT THE AVERAGE OF THE HIGHEST
ONE-THIRD OF THE COMBINED WINDWAVE AND SWELL HEIGHT.

PKZ053-151600-
YAKUTAT BAY-
400 PM AKDT SAT MAR 14 2015 

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY SUNDAY...

.TONIGHT...W WIND 15 KT BECOMING NE IN THE EVENING...THEN
BECOMING E LATE. SEAS 5 FT...HIGHEST NEAR OCEAN ENTRANCE. SNOW
SHOWERS IN THE EVENING.
.SUN...NE WIND 25 KT. SEAS 5 FT. SNOW SHOWERS IN THE
AFTERNOON. 
.SUN NIGHT...E WIND 25 KT. SEAS 7 FT. SW SWELL. SNOW.
.MON...E WIND 25 KT. SEAS 8 FT. SW SWELL. RAIN.
.MON NIGHT...E WIND 15 KT. SEAS 8 FT. SW SWELL. RAIN.
.TUE...SE WIND 15 KT. SEAS 8 FT. SW SWELL. 
.WED...E WIND 25 KT. SEAS 5 FT. 
.THU...E WIND 20 KT. SEAS 6 FT. 

$$

447 
FZAK53 PAJK 150645 AAA
CWFYAK

MARINE FORECAST FOR YAKUTAT BAY...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JUNEAU AK
1045 PM AKDT SAT MAR 14 2015

COASTAL WATERS FORECAST FOR YAKUTAT BAY

WIND FORECASTS REFLECT THE PREDOMINANT SPEED AND DIRECTION
EXPECTED. SEA FORECASTS REPRESENT THE AVERAGE OF THE HIGHEST
ONE-THIRD OF THE COMBINED WINDWAVE AND SWELL HEIGHT.

PKZ053-160045-
YAKUTAT BAY-
1045 PM AKDT SAT MAR 14 2015

UPDATED

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY SUNDAY...

.REST OF TONIGHT...NE WIND 10 KT BECOMING E 20 KT LATE. SEAS 5
FT...EXCEPT 2 FT OR LESS EAST SIDE OF THE BAY. 
.SUN...NE WIND 25 KT. SEAS 5 FT. SNOW SHOWERS IN THE AFTERNOON. 
.SUN NIGHT...E WIND 25 KT. SEAS 7 FT. SW SWELL. SNOW.
.MON...E WIND 25 KT. SEAS 8 FT. SW SWELL. RAIN.
.MON NIGHT...E WIND 15 KT. SEAS 8 FT. SW SWELL. RAIN.
.TUE...SE WIND 15 KT. SEAS 8 FT. SW SWELL. 
.WED...E WIND 25 KT. SEAS 5 FT. 
.THU...E WIND 20 KT. SEAS 6 FT. 

$$

229 
FZAK53 PAJK 151136
CWFYAK

MARINE FORECAST FOR YAKUTAT BAY
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JUNEAU AK
400 AM AKDT SUN MAR 15 2015 

COASTAL WATERS FORECAST FOR YAKUTAT BAY

WIND FORECASTS REFLECT THE PREDOMINANT SPEED AND DIRECTION
EXPECTED. SEA FORECASTS REPRESENT THE AVERAGE OF THE HIGHEST
ONE-THIRD OF THE COMBINED WINDWAVE AND SWELL HEIGHT.

PKZ053-160100-
YAKUTAT BAY-
400 AM AKDT SUN MAR 15 2015 

.TODAY...SW WIND 10 KT BECOMING NE IN THE MORNING AND INCREASING
TO 20 KT. SEAS 4 FT. SNOW IN THE AFTERNOON.
.TONIGHT...E WIND 20 KT. SEAS 4 FT BUILDING TO 6 FT LATE. 
SW SWELL LATE. SNOW.
.MON...E WIND 20 KT. SEAS 7 FT. S SWELL. RAIN.
.MON NIGHT...NE WIND 15 KT. SEAS 7 FT. S SWELL. RAIN WITH SNOW. 
.TUE...NE WIND 10 KT. SEAS 7 FT. S SWELL. 
.WED...E WIND 15 KT. SEAS 6 FT. 
.THU...E WIND 20 KT. SEAS 11 FT. 

$$

SOUTHEAST ALASKA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JUNEAU AK
321 PM AKDT FRI MAR 13 2015

.SHORT TERM...A COLD FRONT IS OVER THE SOUTHERN PANHANDLE LATE
THIS AFTERNOON AND CONTINUES TO CAUSE MODERATE TO HEAVY RAIN FROM
ABOUT KETCHIKAN EAST. TO THE WEST OF THIS COLD AIR IS QUICKLY MOVING
IN. TEMPERATURES AT 850MB HAD ALREADY FALLEN TO -10C THIS MORNING
OVER THE GULF AND THAT AIRMASS HAS SINCE MOVED INLAND. AS EXPECTED THE
CAA OVER THE WARM GULF WATER IS CAUSING OCEAN EFFECT SNOW SHOWERS.
A SMALL LOW OVER THE NORTHERN GULF NEAR PRINCE WILLIAM SOUND IS
ENHANCING THE SHOWERS NEAR YAKUTAT. HAVE STARTED THE WINTER
WEATHER ADVISORY FOR SNOW THERE EARLIER TODAY SINCE ABOUT 1-3
INCHES ARE EXPECTED EVERY 6HRS (TOTALING 4-12 INCHES THROUGH
SATURDAY MID-DAY)...ALTHOUGH WITH SHOWERS AMOUNTS CAN BE HIGHLY
VARIABLE. STRONG CONVECTION WILL ENHANCE THE SHOWERS FURTHER AND
SOME COULD EVEN HAVE ICE PELLETS OR A RUMBLE OF THUNDER IN THEM. A
REPORT OF ICE PELLETS WAS RECEIVED NORTH OF JUNEAU THIS
AFTERNOON...SO MANY LOCATIONS COULD SEE A BIT OF THAT MIX.
GREATEST RISK OF THUNDER LOOKS TO BE OVER THE NORTHERN GULF
OUTSIDE WATERS AND NEARBY COASTAL AREAS...HAVE MENTIONED A SLIGHT
CHANCE IN THE FORECAST FOR THERE. MOST PLACES OVER THE NORTHERN
HALF OF THE PANHANDLE WILL SEE 1-2 INCHES OF SNOW TONIGHT AND
TOMORROW...HOWEVER SOME PLACES COULD SEE SHOWERS TRAIN WITH HIGHER
AMOUNTS.

THE SOUTHERN PANHANDLE WILL SEE THE RAIN MOVING OUT OVER NIGHT.
HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD FROM THE SOUTH TURNING WINDS MORE W-NWLY AND
HELP TO BREAK UP THE CLOUDS. HAVE MOSTLY CLOUDY SKIES DOWN THERE
THROUGH SAT...BUT THINK THERE WILL BE A FAIR AMOUNT OF SUNSHINE
AND ONLY SCATTERED/ISOLATED SNOW AND RAIN SHOWERS.

USED MAINLY THE NAM FOR UPDATES TODAY FOR ITS GOOD PRESSURE
INITIALIZATION. DID ADJUST SNOW LEVELS SOME WITH THE ECMWF AS ITS
850MB TEMPS MATCHED WELL WITH AIRCRAFT SOUNDINGS. FORECAST
CONFIDENCE IS ABOVE NORMAL FOR SNOW SHOWERS...BUT LOWER ON ACTUAL
AMOUNTS.

.LONG TERM...LONG TERM FORECAST PERIOD WILL BE DOMINATED BY A
SERIES OF UPPER-LEVEL SHORTWAVE TROUGHS...THE FIRST OF WHICH WILL
MOVE N ACROSS THE GULF SUN NIGHT INTO MON...WITH SUCCESSIVE WAVES
FOLLOWING THEREAFTER ROUGHLY EVERY 24 HRS. THE FIRST SHORTWAVE
WILL BE ASSOCIATED WITH A GALE FORCE FRONT THAT IS FORECAST TO BE
LOCATED OVER THE CNTRL GULF AT 06Z MON...AND THEN GRADUALLY SHIFT
TOWARD THE ERN GULF THROUGH 18Z TUE. IN ADDITION TO GALE FORCE
WINDS OVER THE OUTSIDE WATERS...SEAS ARE FORECAST TO BUILD TO
12-21 FT /HIGHEST OVER THE NRN GULF/ BY LATE SUN NIGHT/...AND THEN
SUBSIDE SLIGHTLY GOING INTO TUE/WED.

DUE TO PERSISTENT HEIGHT FALLS/TROUGHING S OF THE ALEUTIANS...AS
WELL AS HIGH PRESSURE OVER BC...THE FRONT OVER THE GULF WILL
STRUGGLE TO MOVE INLAND THROUGH TUE...WHICH HAS PROMPTED A
REDUCTION IN POP VALUES OVER THE CNTRL/SRN PANHANDLE. AS THE HIGH
WEAKENS ON WED...AND INDIVIDUAL UPPER SHORTWAVES ATTEMPT TO BREAK
DOWN A WRN CANADIAN RIDGE...REMNANT FRONTAL SEGMENTS ARE FORECAST
TO MOVE INLAND AND AID IN A MORE SUBSTANTIAL PROBABILITY FOR RAIN
FROM WED ONWARDS.

NUDGED INHERITED PRESSURE GRIDS TOWARD THE NAM AND GEM THROUGH 00Z
MON...THEN MADE UPDATES WITH THE ECMWF 06Z MON THROUGH 06Z
TUE...WITH A TRANSITION TO WPC BY 12Z WED. POP AND QPF WERE ALSO
NUDGED TOWARD THE GFS AND ECMWF. NO SIGNIFICANT CHANGES MADE TO
TEMPERATURES.

&&

.AJK WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
PUBLIC...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 1 PM AKDT SATURDAY FOR AKZ017.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FOR PKZ012-021-022-041>043-051-052.

&&

FERRIN/GARNER

VISIT US AT HTTP://WWW.WEATHER.GOV/JUNEAU