Small Craft Advisory 21, NWS Juneau, AK

549 
FZAK52 PAJK 060602 AAA
CWFAEG

COASTAL WATERS FORECAST FOR SOUTHEAST ALASKA...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JUNEAU AK
902 PM AKST MON JAN 5 2015

SOUTHEAST ALASKA COASTAL WATERS FROM DIXON ENTRANCE TO
CAPE SUCKLING OUT 100 NM

WIND FORECASTS REFLECT THE PREDOMINANT SPEED AND DIRECTION
EXPECTED. SEA FORECASTS REPRESENT THE AVERAGE OF THE HIGHEST
ONE-THIRD OF THE COMBINED WINDWAVE AND SWELL HEIGHT.

PKZ099-070015-
902 PM AKST MON JAN 5 2015
.SYNOPSIS FOR OUTSIDE WATERS...
A WEAK FRONT WILL MOVE NORTH OVER THE SOUTHERN PANHANDLE MONDAY
NIGHT THEN WEAKEN OVER THE CENTRAL PANHANDLE ON TUESDAY. ANOTHER
FRONT WILL SPREAD NORTH OVER THE PANHANDLE ON TUESDAY NIGHT.  

$$

PKZ041-070015-
DIXON ENTRANCE TO CAPE DECISION-
902 PM AKST MON JAN 5 2015

UPDATED

...GALE WARNING TONIGHT...

.TONIGHT...E WIND 35 KT. SEAS 11 FT. RAIN.
.TUE...E WIND 30 KT. SEAS 10 FT. RAIN.
.TUE NIGHT...E WIND 30 KT BECOMING SE LATE. SEAS 14 FT. RAIN.
.WED...SE WIND 20 KT. SEAS 12 FT. S SWELL. 
.WED NIGHT...E WIND 20 KT. SEAS 11 FT. S SWELL. 
.THU...E WIND 25 KT. SEAS 10 FT. 
.FRI...SE WIND 20 KT. SEAS 9 FT. 
.SAT...SE WIND 25 KT. SEAS 8 FT. 



$$

PKZ042-070015-
CAPE DECISION TO CAPE EDGECUMBE-
902 PM AKST MON JAN 5 2015

...GALE WARNING TONIGHT...

.TONIGHT...E WIND 25 KT INCREASING TO 35 KT LATE. SEAS 6 FT
BUILDING TO 9 FT. RAIN.
.TUE...E WIND 30 KT. SEAS 9 FT. RAIN.
.TUE NIGHT...E WIND 30 KT. SEAS 14 FT. RAIN.
.WED...SE WIND 25 KT. SEAS 12 FT. S SWELL. 
.WED NIGHT...E WIND 25 KT. SEAS 11 FT. S SWELL. 
.THU...E WIND 25 KT. SEAS 10 FT. 
.FRI...SE WIND 20 KT. SEAS 9 FT. 
.SAT...SE WIND 25 KT. SEAS 8 FT. 



$$

PKZ043-070015-
CAPE EDGECUMBE TO CAPE FAIRWEATHER-
902 PM AKST MON JAN 5 2015

UPDATED

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY THROUGH TUESDAY...

.TONIGHT...E WIND 30 KT. GUSTS TO 45 KT OUT OF CROSS SOUND. SEAS 5
FT BUILDING TO 9 FT LATE.
.TUE...E WIND 30 KT DIMINISHING IN THE AFTERNOON. SEAS 9 FT. 
.TUE NIGHT...E WIND INCREASING TO 30 KT LATE. SEAS 12 FT. 
.WED...E GALE TO 35 KT. SEAS 12 FT. 
.WED NIGHT...E WIND 30 KT. SEAS 11 FT. 
.THU...E WIND 25 KT. SEAS 10 FT. 
.FRI...E WIND 20 KT. SEAS 9 FT. 
.SAT...E WIND 20 KT. SEAS 8 FT. 



$$

PKZ051-070015-
CAPE FAIRWEATHER TO ICY CAPE-
902 PM AKST MON JAN 5 2015

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY TONIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY...

.TONIGHT...E WIND 15 KT INCREASING TO 25 KT LATE. OUT OF INTERIOR
BAYS AND PASSES...GUSTS TO 40 KT. SEAS 4 FT BUILDING TO 6 FT LATE.
S SWELL LATE. 
.TUE...E WIND 25 KT. SEAS 9 FT. S SWELL. 
.TUE NIGHT...E WIND 25 KT. SEAS 12 FT. 
.WED...E WIND 30 KT. SEAS 12 FT. 
.WED NIGHT...E WIND 30 KT. SEAS 11 FT. 
.THU...E WIND 25 KT. SEAS 11 FT. 
.FRI...SE WIND 20 KT. SEAS 9 FT. 
.SAT...E WIND 20 KT. SEAS 9 FT.


$$

PKZ052-070015-
ICY CAPE TO CAPE SUCKLING-
902 PM AKST MON JAN 5 2015

UPDATED

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY TONIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY...

.TONIGHT...E WIND 20 KT INCREASING TO 25 KT LATE. STRONGEST WINDS
OFFSHORE. SEAS 5 FT BUILDING TO 7 FT LATE. SE SWELL LATE.
.TUE...E WIND 25 KT. SEAS 9 FT. S SWELL. 
.TUE NIGHT...E WIND 25 KT DIMINISHING TO 20 KT LATE. SEAS 11 FT. 
S SWELL. 
.WED AND WED NIGHT...E WIND 30 KT. SEAS 11 FT. 
.THU...E WIND 30 KT. SEAS 12 FT. 
.FRI AND SAT...E WIND 20 KT. SEAS 10 FT. 



$$

991 
FZAK52 PAJK 061243
CWFAEG

COASTAL WATERS FORECAST FOR SOUTHEAST ALASKA
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JUNEAU AK
400 AM AKST TUE JAN 6 2015 

SOUTHEAST ALASKA COASTAL WATERS FROM DIXON ENTRANCE TO
CAPE SUCKLING OUT 100 NM

WIND FORECASTS REFLECT THE PREDOMINANT SPEED AND DIRECTION
EXPECTED. SEA FORECASTS REPRESENT THE AVERAGE OF THE HIGHEST
ONE-THIRD OF THE COMBINED WINDWAVE AND SWELL HEIGHT.

PKZ099-070100-
400 AM AKST TUE JAN 6 2015 
.SYNOPSIS FOR OUTSIDE WATERS...
AN AREA OF LOW PRESSURE WILL MOVE INTO THE EASTERN GULF TUESDAY
NIGHT AND DISSIPATE DURING WEDNESDAY. MEANWHILE...HIGH PRESSURE
OVER NORTHWESTERN CANADA WILL CONTINUE TO SUPPORT STRONG OUTFLOW
WINDS OVER THE NORTHERN INNER CHANNELS THROUGH THURSDAY.  

$$

PKZ041-070100-
DIXON ENTRANCE TO CAPE DECISION-
400 AM AKST TUE JAN 6 2015 

...GALE WARNING TODAY THROUGH TONIGHT...

.TODAY...E WIND 30 KT INCREASING TO 35 KT IN THE AFTERNOON. SEAS
8 FT BUILDING TO 14 FT. RAIN.
.TONIGHT...E WIND 35 KT BECOMING SE LATE. SEAS 14 FT. RAIN.
.WED...S WIND 20 KT. SEAS 15 FT. 
.WED NIGHT...E WIND 25 KT. SEAS 11 FT. S SWELL. 
.THU...E WIND 25 KT. SEAS 10 FT. 
.FRI...SE WIND 20 KT. SEAS 9 FT. 
.SAT...SE WIND 25 KT. SEAS 9 FT. 

$$

PKZ042-070100-
CAPE DECISION TO CAPE EDGECUMBE-
400 AM AKST TUE JAN 6 2015 

...GALE WARNING TONIGHT...

.TODAY...E WIND 30 KT. SEAS 9 FT BUILDING TO 13 FT. RAIN.
.TONIGHT...E WIND 35 KT DIMINISHING TO 30 KT LATE. SEAS 14 FT.
RAIN.
.WED...S WIND 25 KT BECOMING SE IN THE AFTERNOON. SEAS 15 FT. 
.WED NIGHT...E WIND 25 KT. SEAS 11 FT. S SWELL. 
.THU...E WIND 25 KT. SEAS 10 FT. 
.FRI...SE WIND 20 KT. SEAS 9 FT. 
.SAT...SE WIND 25 KT. SEAS 9 FT. 

$$

PKZ043-070100-
CAPE EDGECUMBE TO CAPE FAIRWEATHER-
400 AM AKST TUE JAN 6 2015 

...GALE WARNING EARLY TODAY...

.TODAY...E WIND 35 KT DIMINISHING TO 30 KT. GUSTS TO 50 KT OUT OF
CROSS SOUND. SEAS 9 FT BUILDING TO 11 FT. 
.TONIGHT...E WIND 30 KT. GUSTS TO 50 KT OUT OF CROSS SOUND. SEAS
12 FT BUILDING TO 14 FT LATE. 
.WED...E GALE TO 35 KT DIMINISHING TO 30 KT IN THE AFTERNOON. 
GUSTS TO 50 KT OUT OF CROSS SOUND. SEAS 13 FT. 
.WED NIGHT...E WIND 30 KT. GUSTS TO 45 KT OUT OF CROSS
SOUND. SEAS 11 FT. 
.THU...E WIND 30 KT. SEAS 10 FT. 
.FRI...E WIND 20 KT. SEAS 10 FT. 
.SAT...E WIND 20 KT. SEAS 9 FT. 

$$

PKZ051-070100-
CAPE FAIRWEATHER TO ICY CAPE-
400 AM AKST TUE JAN 6 2015 

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY TODAY THROUGH TONIGHT...

.TODAY...E WIND 25 KT. GUSTS TO 40 KT OUT OF INTERIOR BAYS AND
PASSES. SEAS 8 FT BUILDING TO 10 FT IN THE AFTERNOON. 
.TONIGHT...E WIND 20 KT. SEAS 10 FT. S SWELL. 
.WED...E WIND 30 KT DIMINISHING IN THE AFTERNOON. SEAS 11 FT. 
.WED NIGHT...E WIND 30 KT. SEAS 11 FT. 
.THU...E WIND 30 KT. SEAS 11 FT. 
.FRI...SE WIND 20 KT. SEAS 11 FT. 
.SAT...E WIND 20 KT. SEAS 8 FT. 

$$

PKZ052-070100-
ICY CAPE TO CAPE SUCKLING-
400 AM AKST TUE JAN 6 2015 

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY TODAY THROUGH TONIGHT...

.TODAY...E WIND 15 KT INCREASING TO 25 KT IN THE AFTERNOON. SEAS
8 FT BUILDING TO 10 FT IN THE AFTERNOON. 
.TONIGHT...E WIND 20 KT DIMINISHING LATE. SEAS 11 FT. S SWELL. 
.WED...NE WIND 20 KT BECOMING E 30 KT IN THE AFTERNOON. 
SEAS 11 FT. 
.WED NIGHT...E WIND 30 KT. SEAS 11 FT. 
.THU...E GALE TO 35 KT. SEAS 12 FT. 
.FRI...E WIND 20 KT. SEAS 11 FT. 
.SAT...E WIND 20 KT. SEAS 9 FT. 

$$

SOUTHEAST ALASKA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JUNEAU AK
350 PM AKST MON JAN 5 2015

.SHORT TERM...AN OCCLUDED FRONT EXTENDS FROM SOUTHWEST TO NORTHEAST
ACROSS THE GULF OF ALASKA. THE TRIPLE POINT LIES OVER HAIDA GWAII,
WITH THE WARM FRONT EXTENDING EAST ACROSS THE SOUTHERN PANHANDLE
AND THE COLD FRONT SOUTH OVER THE NORTHEAST PACIFIC. WARMER LOW
LEVEL AIR BEHIND THE WARM FRONT WILL CONTINUE TO MOVE NORTH WITH
THE FRONT THROUGH THE NIGHT. AT THE SURFACE, TEMPERATURES RANGE
FROM THE MIDDLE TEENS TO THE LOW 30S. SOME LOCATIONS ARE ALREADY
SEEING SNOW FRO THIS SYSTEM AND GENERALLY, THE MORE SOUTHERLY
LOCATIONS WILL TRANSITION FROM SNOW TO RAIN SOONEST. AS THIS
OVERRUNNING EVENT PROGRESSES AND THE WARMER AIR MOVES ALOFT OVER
THE COLDER SURFACE AIR, FREEZING RAIN BECOMES MORE LIKELY. THE
MORE SOUTHERLY LOCATIONS SHOULD SEE A CHANGE OVER FROM SNOW TO
RAIN MORE QUICKLY WITH ONLY A BRIEF PERIOD OF FREEZING RAIN.
FARTHER NORTH, THE DURATION OF THE FREEZING RAIN WILL LIKELY BE
LONGER WITH THE COLDER SURFACE AIRMASS REMAINING IN PLACE AND
FORCING THE WARMER AIR ALOFT. THIS FRONT BEGINS TO FALL APART
OVER THE CENTRAL PANHANDLE AND CATEGORICAL POPS EXTEND ONLY AS FAR
NORTH AS ZONE 26 THROUGH LATE TONIGHT. CHANCE POPS FARTHER NORTH
COMPLICATES THE ISSUE OF WHETHER OR NOT ANY PRECIPITATION OCCURS
AT ALL, FREEZING RAIN INCLUDED.

A STRONG NORTHEASTERLY PRESSURE GRADIENT CONTINUES TO CREATE VERY
WINDY CONDITIONS FOR THE ZONES CLOSEST TO THE COAST MOUNTAINS.
HAVE EXTENDED THE HIGH WIND WARNING FOR SKAGWAY TO MIDNIGHT.
STRONG WINDS IN DOWNTOWN JUNEAU FOR AT LEAST THE EVENING HOURS
TONIGHT. THE APPROACHING FRONT WILL ACTUALLY AMPLIFY THE PRESSURE
GRADIENT SOMEWHAT BEFORE WEAKENING, SO WINDY OR VERY WINDY
CONDITIONS THROUGH THE NIGHT FOR MANY LOCATIONS SEEMS HIGHLY
LIKELY. STRONG WIND HEADLINE IN HAINES PRIMARILY DUE TO THE VERY
STRONG WINDS IN LYNN CANAL AND THEIR PROXIMITY TO THE CHILKAT
PENINSULA.

STRONG WINDS AND VERY COLD TEMPERATURES WILL KEEP THE WIND CHILL
ADVISORY FOR THE KLONDIKE HIGHWAY GOING ALL NIGHT LONG AND THROUGH
MID MORNING. BLOWING SNOW IN ADDITION TO THE WIND CHILL IS ALSO A
CONCERN ALONG THE KLONDIKE TONIGHT.

FINALLY, HAVE ISSUED A WINTER STORM WARNING FOR MISTY FJORDS AND
HYDER WITH THE AFTERNOON FORECAST. SNOW TOTALS OVER THE NEXT 24
HOURS IN HYDER EXPECTED TO BE AROUND 12 INCHES WITH MORE SNOW
FALLING IN THE EARLY PORTION OF THE EXTENDED RANGE FORECAST.

NO CHANGES TO PRESSURE OR WIND TODAY. ADJUSTMENTS TO TEMPS AND
SNOW LEVELS PER ECMWF. POP AND QPF UPDATED USING ECMWF AS A
FOUNDATION WITH SOME HELP FROM BOTH GEM AND GFS. OVERALL FORECAST
CONFIDENCE IS AVERAGE.

.LONG TERM...MODEL PERFORMANCE HAS NOT BEEN IMPROVED MUCH...BUT
PREFERRED TO REFRESH THE INHERITED FORECAST WITH THE ECMWF AND GEM
GLOBAL FOR THEIR MOST ACCEPTABLE CONSISTENCY THROUGH THURSDAY
EVENING. POP FIELDS WERE REFRESHED WITH THE SREF POP GUIDANCE AS
WELL. USED THE LATEST WPC ENSEMBLE SOLUTIONS FOR THE REST OF LONG
TERM PERIODS. PERSISTING UPPER LEVEL RIDGE OVER SOUTHEAST ALASKA
WILL KEEP OPENING MOISTURE CHANNEL FROM THE SOUTH AND MOSTLY
FOCUSING TO THE SOUTHERN PANHANDLE AREAS THROUGH LATE WEDNESDAY.
WARMING TREND WILL CONTINUE...BUT THE COLD AIR ANCHORED OVER
BRITISH COLUMBIA WILL PRODUCE SIGNIFICANT SNOWFALL NEAR HYDER
THROUGH WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON. POSTED WINTER STORM WARNING FOR HYDER
INITIALLY THROUGH 6 PM WEDNESDAY WITH POSSIBLE TOTAL SNOW
ACCUMULATION 16 TO 27 INCHES.

CONTINUED MOISTURE FEEDING FROM THE SOUTH WILL REACH TO THE
NORTHERN HALF OF THE PANHANDLE. EXPECT SNOW INITIALLY DUE TO
REMAINING COLD AIR OVER THE AREAS...BUT CONTINUED WARMING TREND
WILL EVENTUALLY TURN THE SNOW TO RAIN. MAINTAINED LIGHT FREEZING
DRIZZLE IN THE FORECAST DUE TO WARMER AIR RIDING OVER COLD AIR
THROUGH SOMETIME THURSDAY...IN WHICH TIME SURFACE TEMPERATURES
BECOME WARM ENOUGH FOR RAIN. TIGHTENED PRESSURE GRADIENT FOR
GUSTY OFFSHORE FLOW WILL CONTINUE THROUGH THURSDAY...THEN RELAX A
BIT BEFORE TIGHTENING AGAIN TOWARD THE WEEKEND. GALE TO POSSIBLE
STORM FORCE WINDS WILL PERSIST ACROSS THE NORTHERN INNER CHANNELS
SOUTH TO STEPHENS PASSAGE WITH FREEZING SPRAY. EXPECT TAKU WIND
FOR DOWNTOWN JUNEAU AND SOUTH DOUGLAS AS WELL.

&&

.AJK WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
PUBLIC...STRONG WIND UNTIL 9 PM AKST THIS EVENING FOR AKZ025.
         STRONG WIND THROUGH TUESDAY AFTERNOON FOR AKZ019.
         HIGH WIND WARNING UNTIL MIDNIGHT AKST TONIGHT FOR AKZ018.
         STRONG WIND FROM MIDNIGHT AKST TONIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY AFTERNOON
     FOR AKZ018.
         WIND CHILL ADVISORY UNTIL 9 AM AKST TUESDAY FOR AKZ018.
         WINTER STORM WARNING UNTIL 6 PM AKST WEDNESDAY FOR AKZ029.
MARINE...STORM WARNING FOR PKZ012.
         GALE WARNING FOR PKZ011-013-021-022-031-034>036-041-042.
         SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FOR PKZ032-033-043-051>053.

&&

FRITSCH/AHN

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