Gale Warning 113, NWS Fairbanks, AK

764 
FZAK51 PAFG 062348
CWFNSB

COASTAL WATERS FORECAST FOR ARCTIC ALASKA
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE FAIRBANKS AK
248 PM AKST FRI NOV 6 2015

ARCTIC ALASKA COASTAL WATERS OUT 100 NM

WIND FORECASTS REFLECT THE PREDOMINANT SPEED AND DIRECTION
EXPECTED. SEA FORECASTS REPRESENT THE AVERAGE OF THE HIGHEST ONE-
THIRD OF THE COMBINED WIND WAVE AND SWELL HEIGHT.

PKZ298-071500-
248 PM AKST FRI NOV 6 2015

.SYNOPSIS FOR ARCTIC COAST...
A BROAD AREA OF CYCLONIC FLOW EXTENDS N TO 77N WILL PERSIST
THROUGH SAT MORNING. A RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD E ACROSS
THE ARCTIC ALONG 76N SAT MORNING AND PERSIST INTO SUN BEFORE BEING
PUSHED BACK N AS A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM MOVES FROM THE NE BERING
SEA OVER THE MAINLAND.

$$

PKZ225-071500-
CAPE THOMPSON TO CAPE BEAUFORT-
248 PM AKST FRI NOV 6 2015

...HEAVY FREEZING SPRAY WARNING IN EFFECT THROUGH SATURDAY
AFTERNOON...
...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY IN EFFECT THROUGH SATURDAY AFTERNOON...

.TONIGHT...NE WINDS 25 KT. SEAS 8 FT. BLOWING SNOW. 
HEAVY FREEZING SPRAY.
.SAT...NE WINDS 30 KT. SEAS 8 FT. BLOWING SNOW. SNOW. 
HEAVY FREEZING SPRAY.
.SAT NIGHT...E WINDS 30 KT. SEAS 8 FT. BLOWING SNOW. HEAVY
FREEZING SPRAY. 
.SUN...E WINDS 35 KT. SEAS 9 FT. BLOWING SNOW. HEAVY FREEZING
SPRAY. 
.SUN NIGHT...E WINDS 40 KT. SEAS 12 FT. SNOW. HEAVY FREEZING
SPRAY. 
.MON...NE WINDS 35 KT. SEAS 11 FT. SNOW. HEAVY FREEZING SPRAY. 
.MON NIGHT...NE WINDS 30 KT. SEAS 10 FT. HEAVY FREEZING SPRAY. 
.TUE...W WINDS 25 KT. SEAS 8 FT. 
.WED...W WINDS 20 KT. SEAS 7 FT.  

$$

PKZ230-071500-
CAPE BEAUFORT TO POINT FRANKLIN-
248 PM AKST FRI NOV 6 2015

...HEAVY FREEZING SPRAY WARNING IN EFFECT THROUGH SATURDAY
AFTERNOON...
...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY IN EFFECT THROUGH SATURDAY AFTERNOON...

.TONIGHT...NE WINDS 25 KT. SEAS 7 FT. BLOWING SNOW AND FOG. 
HEAVY FREEZING SPRAY.
.SAT...NE WINDS 30 KT. SEAS 7 FT. BLOWING SNOW AND FOG. 
HEAVY FREEZING SPRAY.
.SAT NIGHT...E WINDS 30 KT. SEAS 7 FT. BLOWING SNOW AND FOG.
HEAVY FREEZING SPRAY. 
.SUN...E WINDS 30 KT. SEAS 6 FT. BLOWING SNOW AND FOG. HEAVY
FREEZING SPRAY. 
.SUN NIGHT...E WINDS 35 KT. SEAS 8 FT. HEAVY FREEZING SPRAY. 
.MON...E WINDS 30 KT. SEAS 8 FT. HEAVY FREEZING SPRAY.
.MON NIGHT...NE WINDS 25 KT. SEAS 6 FT. HEAVY FREEZING SPRAY. 
.TUE...W WINDS 20 KT. SEAS 7 FT. 
.WED...W WINDS 20 KT. SEAS 7 FT.  

$$

PKZ235-071500-
POINT FRANKLIN TO CAPE HALKETT-
248 PM AKST FRI NOV 6 2015

...BRISK WIND ADVISORY IN EFFECT THROUGH SATURDAY AFTERNOON...

.TONIGHT...NE WINDS 30 KT. BLOWING SNOW AND FOG. 
.SAT...NE WINDS 25 KT. BLOWING SNOW AND FOG.
.SAT NIGHT...E WINDS 25 KT. BLOWING SNOW AND FOG. 
.SUN...E WINDS 25 KT. BLOWING SNOW AND FOG. 
.SUN NIGHT...E WINDS 25 KT. 
.MON...E WINDS 25 KT. 
.MON NIGHT...NE WINDS 20 KT. 
.TUE...W WINDS 10 KT. 
.WED...SW WINDS 15 KT.  

$$

PKZ240-071500-
CAPE HALKETT TO FLAXMAN ISLAND-
248 PM AKST FRI NOV 6 2015

...BRISK WIND ADVISORY IN EFFECT THROUGH SATURDAY AFTERNOON...

.TONIGHT...E WINDS 30 KT. BLOWING SNOW AND FOG. 
.SAT...E WINDS 25 KT. BLOWING SNOW AND FOG. 
.SAT NIGHT...E WINDS 20 KT. BLOWING SNOW AND FOG. 
.SUN...E WINDS 20 KT. FOG.
.SUN NIGHT...E WINDS 25 KT. 
.MON...E WINDS 25 KT. 
.MON NIGHT...SW WINDS 15 KT. 
.TUE...SW WINDS 15 KT. 
.WED...SW WINDS 15 KT.  

$$

PKZ245-071500-
FLAXMAN ISLAND TO DEMARCATION POINT-
248 PM AKST FRI NOV 6 2015

...GALE WARNING IN EFFECT THROUGH THIS EVENING...

.TONIGHT...E WINDS 35 KT DIMINISHING TO 30 KT BY LATE EVENING.
BLOWING SNOW AND FOG.
.SAT...E WINDS 25 KT. BLOWING SNOW AND FOG. 
.SAT NIGHT...E WINDS 20 KT. BLOWING SNOW AND FOG. 
.SUN...E WINDS 20 KT. FOG.
.SUN NIGHT...E WINDS 25 KT. 
.MON...E WINDS 25 KT. 
.MON NIGHT...W WINDS 15 KT. 
.TUE...W WINDS 15 KT. 
.WED...SW WINDS 15 KT.  

$$

CF/DJH NOV 15

NORTHERN ALASKA FORECAST DISCUSSION...CORRECTED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE FAIRBANKS AK
302 AM AKST FRI NOV 6 2015

.DISCUSSION...

MODELS...VERY GOOD AGREEMENT IN THE SHORT TERM. 00Z RUN
INITIALIZED WELL AGAINST THE 06Z SURFACE ANALYSIS. RUN TO RUN THE
LAST COUPLE DAYS HAS BEEN GOOD. WILL USE A BLEND FOR THE WINDS AND
PRECIPITATION PROBABILITIES AS A BASE THEN NUDGE THE
PROBABILITIES WITH THE SREF.

ALOFT...AT 500 HPA...A STACKED LOW WITH A 513 DAM CENTER OVER THE
CENTRAL INTERIOR WILL WEAKEN AS THE LOW MOVES OVER OLD CROW
TONIGHT AT 516 DAM. AS THE LOW MOVES THE LONG WAVE TROUGH
EXTENDING SOUTH OVER THE GULF WILL SLOWLY WORK EAST. WEAK RIDGE
WITH 522 DAM CENTER WILL REMAIN OVER THE ARCTIC THROUGH SATURDAY
THEN MOVE EAST. A WEAK TRANSITORY RIDGE OVER THE CENTRAL BERING
SEA WILL MOVE SLOWLY EAST BUILDING NORTH OVER THE WEST COAST
SATURDAY. A 508 DAM LOW IN THE SEA OF OKHOTSK WILL MOVE EAST OVER
THE KAMCHATKA PENINSULA TONIGHT AND INTO THE CENTRAL BERING SEA
SATURDAY EVENING AT 501 DAM 300 NM WEST OF ST LAWRENCE ISLAND. A
STRONG SHORTWAVE WILL MOVE FROM OVER THE WESTERN ALEUTIANS TONIGHT
TO THE BERING STRAIT BY EARLY SUNDAY MORNING. THE RIDGE WILL BUILD
NORTH AND EAST ACROSS THE INTERIOR AS THE SHORTWAVE DIGS IN OVER
THE WEST COAST. THE LOW WILL MOVE OVER THE NORTON SOUND REGION BY
LATE SUNDAY NIGHT AT 489 DAM AND BECOME QUASI STATIONARY...THEN
SLOWLY WEAKEN AS IT MOVES NORTHEAST TO THE BEAUFORT SEA BY LATE
TUESDAY. THE RIDGE WILL WEAKEN AND MOVE EAST INTO CANADA LATER
SUNDAY. THE SHORTWAVE OVER THE BERING STRAIT WILL MOVE EAST ACROSS
THE LOWER YUKON SUNDAY EVENING THEN MOVE ACROSS THE CENTRAL
INTERIOR MONDAY MORNING. AT 850 HPA...TEMPERATURES SOUTH OF THE
BROOKS RANGE WILL BE ON A ROLLER COASTER RIDE THIS WEEKEND. WEAK
WARM AIR ADVECTION TODAY WILL BE FOLLOWED BY 10 TO 15 DEGREES
CELSIUS OF COOLING IN THE INTERIOR WITH SLIGHTLY LESS COOLING ON
THE WEST COAST...THEN SATURDAY NIGHT WARM AIR ADVECTION AS THE
NEXT STORM ROLLS TO THE WEST COAST WILL PUSH TEMPERATURES TO NEAR
ZERO CELSIUS OVER THE LOWER YUKON DELTA.

SURFACE...BROAD CYCLONIC PATTERN REMAINS OVER THE STATE WITH A 979
MB CENTER OVER KODIAK ISLAND AND A 982 MB CENTER OVER THE UPPER
KUSKOKWIM WITH A WEAKENING 986 MB LOW MOVING NORTH OVER THE ALCAN
BORDER. BY SATURDAY MORNING THE PATTERN BREAKS DOWN AS THE LOW
OVER KODIAK MOVES TO YAKUTAT AT 989 MB AND THE LOW OVER THE
KUSKOKWIM MOVES TO THE UPPER YUKON AND ABSORBS WITH THE LOW OVER
THE ALCAN. WEAK RIDGING BUILDS OVER THE SOUTHWEST MAINLAND BY
SATURDAY MORNING AND BUILD EAST OVER THE SOUTHCENTRAL AREA
SATURDAY NIGHT...THEN INTO THE YUKON SUNDAY. THE NEXT STORM WILL
MOVE FROM THE SEA OF OKHOTSK INTO THE BERING SEA SATURDAY MORNING
AND MOVE TO THE EASTERN BERING SEA BY LATE SATURDAY. SIGNIFICANT
WINDS WITH THE STORM WILL MOVE OVER THE WEST COAST BY SATURDAY
EVENING. THE LOW WILL MOVE OVER ST LAWRENCE ISLAND BY SUNDAY
MORNING AT 960 MB.

MARINE...AS THE STRONG STORM SYSTEM MOVES OVER ST LAWRENCE ISLAND
A SIGNIFICANT SOUTHWEST TO WEST FETCH WILL SET UP AND PERSIST FOR
ALMOST 30 HOURS. THIS WILL PUSH A LARGE AMOUNT OF WATER INTO
NORTON SOUND AND THE BERING STRAIT. CURRENT GUIDANCE INDICATES
SURGE VALUES IN EXCESS OF 5 FEET OVER MOST OF THE OUTER COASTAL
AREAS WITH VALUES OF NEARLY 7 FEET IN MUCH OF NORTON SOUND SUNDAY
NIGHT. WILL ISSUE WATCHES FOR THE NORTON SOUND AND BERING STRAIT
COAST AREAS...ZONE 211 212 AND 214...FOR SUNDAY NIGHT.

ARCTIC COAST AND BROOKS RANGE...WITH CYCLONIC FLOW OVER THE
STATE...EASTERLY FLOW WILL CONTINUE OVER THE AREA. RIDGE WILL
STRENGTHEN A BIT OFFSHORE AND WINDS WILL KICK UP A NOTCH BUT NOT
TOO MUCH. OTHER THAN THAT...LOW CLOUDS...OCCASIONAL FLURRIES...AND
PATCHY FOG WILL CONTINUE ACROSS THE AREA. ICE CONTINUES TO BUILD
OVER THE NEARSHORE WATERS AND WITH THE EAST WINDS THE ICE SHOULD
CONTINUE TO GROW TO THE WEST.

WEST COAST AND WESTERN INTERIOR...PRECIPITATION OVER THE AREA WILL
TAPER OFF FROM THE WEST TO THE EAST THROUGH THE DAY AS THE LONG
WAVE TROUGH MOVES EAST. WILL CANCEL THE ADVISORIES IN ZONE 215 AND
216 AS NONE OF THE OBSERVATION POINTS IS INDICATING MUCH MORE THAN
TRACE LIQUID EACH HOUR IN THE AREA OVERNIGHT. WINDS RELATIVELY
LIGHT TODAY THROUGH SATURDAY...THEN RAMPING UP SATURDAY OVER THE
COASTAL AREAS AND SUNDAY IN THE INLAND AREAS. MAINLY SNOW
TODAY...BUT THE NEXT SYSTEM WILL BRING QUITE A MIX AS WARM AIR
SWEEPS IN OVER ST LAWRENCE ISLAND AND THE LOWER YUKON DELTA.
EXPECT A LITTLE CLEARING OVER THE AREA BETWEEN SYSTEMS.

CENTRAL AND EASTERN INTERIOR...WINDS NEAR PASSES COMING DOWN THIS
MORNING. WITH THE LOW MOVING SOUTH AND THE UPPER LEVEL LOW MOVING
ACROSS THE AREA IT WILL REMAIN MOSTLY CLOUDY TO CLOUDY WITH SOME
LIGHT SNOW OR SNOW SHOWERS MOST OF TODAY AND INTO TONIGHT.
SNOWFALL AMOUNTS WILL GENERALLY BE LESS THAN 2 INCHES.
TEMPERATURES WARMER TODAY SO AROUND FREEZING FROM FAIRBANKS SOUTH
TODAY.

&&

COASTAL HAZARD POTENTIAL DAYS 3 AND 4...SEE MARINE SECTION ABOVE.
NONE BEYOND MONDAY NIGHT.

&&

.AFG WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...

COASTAL FLOOD WATCH FOR AKZ211-AKZ212-AKZ214.

HEAVY FREEZING SPRAY WARNING FOR PKZ220-PKZ225-PKZ230.

SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FOR PKZ210-PKZ220-PKZ225-PKZ230.

GALE WARNING FOR PKZ240-PKZ245.

BRISK WIND ADVISORY FOR PKZ235.

&&

SDB NOV 15