Storm Warning 15, NWS Anchorage, AK

090 
FZAK52 PAFC 010005
CWFALU

COASTAL WATERS FORECAST
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ANCHORAGE ALASKA
305 PM AKST SAT JAN 31 2015

COASTAL WATERS FORECAST FOR SOUTHWEST ALASKA+BRISTOL BAY+THE
ALASKA PENINSULA WATERS AND THE ALEUTIAN ISLANDS UP TO 100 NM OUT.

WIND FORECASTS REFLECT THE PREDOMINANT SPEED AND DIRECTION
EXPECTED. SEA FORECASTS REPRESENT AN AVERAGE OF THE HIGHEST
ONE-THIRD OF THE COMBINED WIND WAVE AND SWELL HEIGHT.

PKZ199-011330-
305 PM AKST SAT JAN 31 2015
.SYNOPSIS FOR SOUTHWEST ALASKA+BRISTOL BAY+THE ALASKA
PENINSULA WATERS AND THE ALEUTIAN ISLANDS...
A NORTH PACIFIC WEATHER FRONT NEAR THE ALASKA PENINSULA WILL
SLOWLY WEAKEN THROUGH MON. HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD INTO THE
WESTERN BERING SAT NIGHT AND SPREAD INTO THE NORTHERN AND CENTRAL
BERING BY MON AFTERNOON.

$$

PKZ150-011330-
SOUTH OF THE AK PENINSULA SITKINAK TO CASTLE CAPE-
305 PM AKST SAT JAN 31 2015

...GALE WARNING TONIGHT...

.TONIGHT...NE WIND 40 KT. HIGHER GUSTS TO 50 KT IN THE EVENING.
SEAS 26 FT.
.SUN...NE WIND 30 KT. SEAS 22 FT.
.SUN NIGHT...NE WIND 30 KT. SEAS 17 FT.
.MON...NE WIND 30 KT. SEAS 14 FT.
.MON NIGHT...E WIND 25 KT. SEAS 11 FT.
.TUE THROUGH WED...NE WIND 25 KT. SEAS 11 FT.
.THU...N WIND 30 KT. SEAS 22 FT.

$$

PKZ155-011330-
SOUTH OF THE AK PENINSULA CASTLE CAPE TO CAPE SARICHEF-
305 PM AKST SAT JAN 31 2015

...GALE WARNING TONIGHT...

.TONIGHT...NE WIND 45 KT. SEAS 25 FT. RAIN.
.SUN AND SUN NIGHT...NE WIND 30 KT. SEAS 19 FT.
.MON...NE WIND 30 KT. SEAS 14 FT.
.MON NIGHT...NE WIND 25 KT. SEAS 12 FT.
.TUE THROUGH WED...NE WIND 30 KT. SEAS 12 FT.
.THU...N WIND 30 KT. SEAS 21 FT.

$$

PKZ160-011330-
BRISTOL BAY-
305 PM AKST SAT JAN 31 2015

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY THROUGH SUNDAY...

.TONIGHT...NE WIND 30 KT. SEAS IN ICE FREE WATERS 5 FT. FREEZING SPRAY.
.SUN...NE WIND 25 KT. SEAS IN ICE FREE WATERS 4 FT. FREEZING SPRAY.
.SUN NIGHT...NE WIND 15 KT. SEAS IN ICE FREE WATERS 2 FT. FREEZING SPRAY.
.MON...NE WIND 15 KT. SEAS IN ICE FREE WATERS 2 FT.
.MON NIGHT...NE WIND 25 KT. SEAS IN ICE FREE WATERS 3 FT.
.TUE...NE WIND 25 KT. SEAS IN ICE FREE WATERS 4 FT.
.WED THROUGH THU...N WIND 30 KT. SEAS IN ICE FREE WATERS 6 FT.

$$

PKZ165-011330-
PORT HEIDEN TO CAPE SARICHEF-
305 PM AKST SAT JAN 31 2015

...GALE WARNING TONIGHT...

.TONIGHT...NE WIND 25 KT INCREASING TO 35 KT BY MIDNIGHT.
SEAS 11 FT.
.SUN...NE WIND 25 KT. SEAS 9 FT.
.SUN NIGHT...NE WIND 20 KT. SEAS 6 FT.
.MON...NE WIND 25 KT. SEAS 7 FT.
.MON NIGHT THROUGH WED...NE WIND 30 KT. SEAS 9 FT.
.THU...N WIND 35 KT. SEAS 12 FT.

$$

PKZ170-011330-
CAPE SARICHEF TO NIKOLSKI BERING SIDE-
305 PM AKST SAT JAN 31 2015

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT...

.TONIGHT...NE WIND 30 KT. SEAS 10 FT.
.SUN...NE WIND 25 KT. SEAS 10 FT.
.SUN NIGHT AND MON...NE WIND 25 KT. SEAS 8 FT.
.MON NIGHT THROUGH WED...NE WIND 30 KT. SEAS 11 FT.
.THU...NE WIND 35 KT. SEAS 14 FT.

$$

PKZ171-011330-
UNALASKA BAY-
305 PM AKST SAT JAN 31 2015

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY TONIGHT...

.TONIGHT...NE WIND 25 KT. SEAS 7 FT. RAIN AND SNOW.
.SUN...NE WIND 20 KT. SEAS 7 FT. RAIN SHOWERS.
.SUN NIGHT...NE WIND 20 KT. SEAS 6 FT.
.MON...N WIND 20 KT. SEAS 7 FT.
.MON NIGHT...NE WIND 25 KT. SEAS 9 FT.
.TUE...NE WIND 20 KT. SEAS 7 FT.
.WED THROUGH THU...NE WIND 25 KT. SEAS 9 FT.

$$

PKZ172-011330-
CAPE SARICHEF TO NIKOLSKI PACIFIC SIDE-
305 PM AKST SAT JAN 31 2015

...GALE WARNING TONIGHT...

.TONIGHT...NE WIND 30 KT INCREASING TO 40 KT BY MIDNIGHT. SEAS
BUILDING TO 20 FT.
.SUN...NE WIND 30 KT. SEAS 18 FT.
.SUN NIGHT...NE WIND 30 KT. SEAS 17 FT.
.MON AND MON NIGHT...NE WIND 30 KT. SEAS 13 FT.
.TUE THROUGH WED...NE WIND 30 KT. SEAS 14 FT.
.THU...NE WIND 35 KT. SEAS 18 FT.

$$

PKZ173-011330-
NIKOLSKI TO SEGUAM ISLAND BERING SIDE-
305 PM AKST SAT JAN 31 2015

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT...

.TONIGHT...NE WIND INCREASING TO 30 KT. SEAS 10 FT.
.SUN...N WIND 25 KT. SEAS 9 FT.
.SUN NIGHT...NE WIND 25 KT. SEAS 9 FT.
.MON AND MON NIGHT...NE WIND 30 KT. SEAS 11 FT.
.TUE THROUGH WED...NE WIND 30 KT. SEAS 13 FT.
.THU...NE WIND 35 KT. SEAS 13 FT.

$$

PKZ174-011330-
NIKOLSKI TO SEGUAM ISLAND PACIFIC SIDE-
305 PM AKST SAT JAN 31 2015

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT...

.TONIGHT...N WIND 30 KT. SEAS 17 FT.
.SUN...N WIND 30 KT. SEAS 17 FT.
.SUN NIGHT...N WIND 25 KT. SEAS 14 FT.
.MON AND MON NIGHT...NE WIND 30 KT. SEAS 13 FT.
.TUE THROUGH WED...NE WIND 30 KT. SEAS 15 FT.
.THU...NE WIND 35 KT. SEAS 13 FT.

$$

PKZ175-011330-
SEGUAM ISLAND TO ADAK BERING SIDE-
305 PM AKST SAT JAN 31 2015

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT...

.TONIGHT...N WIND 25 KT. SEAS 9 FT.
.SUN AND SUN NIGHT...N WIND 25 KT. SEAS 9 FT.
.MON...NE WIND 25 KT. SEAS 8 FT.
.MON NIGHT...NE WIND 30 KT. SEAS 11 FT.
.TUE THROUGH THU...NE WIND 30 KT. SEAS 13 FT.

$$

PKZ176-011330-
SEGUAM ISLAND TO ADAK PACIFIC SIDE-
305 PM AKST SAT JAN 31 2015

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT...

.TONIGHT...N WIND 30 KT. SEAS 15 FT.
.SUN...N WIND 30 KT. SEAS 15 FT.
.SUN NIGHT...N WIND 25 KT. SEAS 14 FT.
.MON AND MON NIGHT...NE WIND 25 KT. SEAS 12 FT.
.TUE THROUGH THU...NE WIND 30 KT. SEAS 13 FT.

$$

PKZ177-011330-
ADAK TO KISKA-
305 PM AKST SAT JAN 31 2015

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT...

.TONIGHT...N WIND 20 KT. SEAS 9 FT.
.SUN...N WIND 20 KT. SEAS 9 FT.
.SUN NIGHT AND MON...NE WIND 20 KT. SEAS 9 FT.
.MON NIGHT...NE WIND 25 KT. SEAS 9 FT.
.TUE THROUGH THU...NE WIND 30 KT. SEAS 12 FT.

$$

PKZ178-011330-
KISKA TO ATTU-
305 PM AKST SAT JAN 31 2015

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY TONIGHT...

.TONIGHT...N WIND 15 KT. SEAS 9 FT.
.SUN...E WIND 15 KT. SEAS 9 FT.
.SUN NIGHT AND MON...E WIND 20 KT. SEAS 9 FT.
.MON NIGHT...E WIND 25 KT. SEAS 9 FT.
.TUE...E WIND 25 KT. SEAS 11 FT.
.WED...E WIND 30 KT. SEAS 12 FT.
.THU...NE WIND 25 KT. SEAS 11 FT.

$$

PKZ179-011330-
PRIBILOF ISLANDS NEAR SHORE WATERS-
305 PM AKST SAT JAN 31 2015

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY THROUGH SUNDAY...

.TONIGHT...NE WIND 20 KT. SEAS 8 FT.
.SUN...NE WIND 15 KT. SEAS 8 FT.
.SUN NIGHT...N WIND 20 KT. SEAS 7 FT.
.MON...N WIND 25 KT. SEAS 6 FT.
.MON NIGHT...NE WIND 30 KT. SEAS 9 FT.
.TUE THROUGH WED...NE WIND 30 KT. SEAS 10 FT.
.THU...NE WIND 30 KT. SEAS 14 FT.

$$

PKZ180-011330-
KUSKOKWIM DELTA AND ETOLIN STRAIT-
305 PM AKST SAT JAN 31 2015

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY THROUGH SUNDAY...

.TONIGHT...NE WIND 30 KT. SEAS IN ICE FREE WATERS 6 FT.
FREEZING SPRAY.
.SUN...NE WIND 25 KT. SEAS IN ICE FREE WATERS 5 FT.
.SUN NIGHT...N WIND 15 KT. SEAS IN ICE FREE WATERS 3 FT.
.MON...N WIND 20 KT. SEAS IN ICE FREE WATERS 3 FT.
.MON NIGHT AND TUE...N WIND 25 KT. SEAS IN ICE FREE WATERS 5 FT.
.WED...NE WIND 30 KT. SEAS IN ICE FREE WATERS 6 FT.
.THU...N WIND 35 KT. SEAS IN ICE FREE WATERS 7 FT.

$$

PKZ181-011330-
NORTH AND WEST OF NUNIVAK ISLAND-
305 PM AKST SAT JAN 31 2015

.TONIGHT...NE WIND 20 KT.
.SUN...E WIND 15 KT IN THE MORNING BECOMING VARIABLE 10 KT.
.SUN NIGHT...NW WIND 15 KT.
.MON...N WIND 20 KT.
.MON NIGHT...N WIND 25 KT.
.TUE THROUGH WED...NE WIND 25 KT.
.THU...N WIND 30 KT.

$$

PKZ185-011330-
SAINT MATTHEW ISLAND WATERS-
305 PM AKST SAT JAN 31 2015

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY THROUGH SUNDAY...

.TONIGHT...E WIND 20 KT. SEAS 10 FT. FREEZING SPRAY.
.SUN...SW WIND 15 KT. SEAS 8 FT.
.SUN NIGHT...NW WIND 20 KT. SEAS 9 FT. FREEZING SPRAY.
.MON...N WIND 25 KT. SEAS 6 FT.
.MON NIGHT...N WIND 20 KT. SEAS 5 FT.
.TUE THROUGH WED...NE WIND 25 KT. SEAS 8 FT.
.THU...NE WIND 30 KT. SEAS 9 FT.

$$

SOUTHCENTRAL AND SOUTHWEST ALASKA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ANCHORAGE AK
414 PM AKST FRI JAN 30 2015

.ANALYSIS AND UPPER LEVELS...

AN UPPER LEVEL RIDGE REMAINS ENTRENCHED OVER THE CENTRAL BERING
SEA THROUGH SOUTHCENTRAL AND THE INTERIOR OF THE STATE. THIS RIDGE
IS ALSO CONNECTING WITH A RIDGE OVER THE WEST COAST OF NORTH
AMERICA. AN UPPER LEVEL LOW HAS CUT OFF FROM THE LONGWAVE TROUGH
AND IS SITUATED WELL SOUTH OF THE STATE.

AT THE SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE IS OVER MOST OF MAINLAND ALASKA
THROUGH THE CENTRAL BERING SEA WITH SOME WEAK LOW PRESSURE IN THE
GULF OF ALASKA. THE MAIN SURFACE LOW IS ALSO WELL SOUTH OF THE
FORECAST AREA. THIS PATTERN IS KEEPING A TIGHT PRESSURE GRADIENT
ALONG THE NORTH GULF COAST THROUGH THE EASTERN ALEUTIANS AND
INCLUDING THE SOUTHWEST ALASKA MAINLAND. THIS IS A RATHER STABLE
PATTERN AND WILL NOT CHANGE SUBSTANTIALLY THROUGH THE WEEKEND.

&&

.MODEL DISCUSSION...

SHORT TERM MODEL AGREEMENT CONTINUES TO BE GOOD UNDER THE STABLE
PATTERN. OVERALL AGREEMENT BETWEEN THE GFS AND ECMWF CONTINUES
INTO THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK AND THEN THEY DIVERGE GREATLY. THE
GFS HAS SHOWN A MORE CONSISTENT SOLUTION FROM RUN TO RUN BUT THE
ECMWF HAS SHIFTED THE ARCTIC TROUGH FROM THE BERING SEA INTO THE
YUKON IN JUST A FEW RUNS. THIS AMOUNT OF CHANGE PUTS A LARGE
DEGREE OF UNCERTAINTY INTO THE FORECAST FOR THE SECOND HALF OF
NEXT WEEK AS EACH OF THESE SOLUTIONS WOULD HAVE A HUGE IMPACT ON
TEMPERATURES AND WINDS OVER THE AREA.

&&

.SHORT TERM FORECAST SOUTHCENTRAL ALASKA (DAYS 1 AND 2)...

A LONG STRETCH OF SUNNY AND PLEASANT WEATHER WILL GRACE
SOUTHCENTRAL WELL INTO NEXT WEEK AS HIGH PRESSURE ALOFT BUILDS IN.
A DEEP LOW IN THE NORTHERN PACIFIC WILL TRACK A FRONT NORTHWARD
INTO THE GULF OF ALASKA...TIGHTENING AN ALREADY TIGHT PRESSURE
GRADIENT ALONG THE COAST. THIS WILL CONTINUE THE GENERAL OFFSHORE
FLOW PATTERN...WITH LOCAL GAP WINDS INCREASING THROUGH TOMORROW.
OTHERWISE...BEYOND SOME VERY LOCALIZED PATCHY FOG AND BRISK WIND
CHILLS IN MOUNTAIN PASSES...NO SIGNIFICANT FORECAST CONCERNS ARE
ANTICIPATED THROUGH SUNDAY.

&&

.SHORT TERM FORECAST SOUTHWEST ALASKA (DAYS 1 AND 2)...

LOW PRESSURE SOUTH OF THE AKPEN AND HIGH PRESSURE OVER INTERIOR
AK WILL KEEP COLD AND DRY CONDITIONS OVER SW AK INTO THE
WEEKEND...WITH SOME WIND FOR THE KUSKOKWIM DELTA AND AREAS NORTH
OF DILLINGHAM. A SLIGHT WARMING TREND CAN BE EXPECTED SUN AND MON
AS WARMER AIR MOVES INLAND FROM THE BERING.

&&

.SHORT TERM FORECAST BERING SEA/ALEUTIANS (DAYS 1 AND 2)...

LOW PRESSURE SOUTH OF THE AKPEN WILL BRING A CHANCE OF RAIN AND
SNOW TO THE AKPEN AND EASTERN ALEUTIANS THROUGH MON. A LOW MOVING
PAST THE WESTERN BERING WILL BRING A CHANCE OF RAIN TO THE WESTERN
ALEUTIANS DURING THE SAME PERIOD. THE REST OF THE ALEUTIANS...THE
BERING AND THE PRIBILOFS WILL BE DRY WITH PARTLY TO MOSTLY CLOUDY
SKIES INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK.

&&

.LONG TERM FORECAST (DAYS 3 THROUGH 7)...

THE BEGINNING OF NEXT WEEK STARTS OFF WITH A SPLIT FLOW PATTERN
WITH AN UPPER RIDGE NEAR THE BERING STRAIGHT AND A LOW SOUTH OF
THE ALASKA PENINSULA. THE RIDGE CURRENTLY OVER THE MAINLAND SHIFTS
SOUTH SUNDAY NIGHT AS A STRONG SHORTWAVE TROUGH DIGS AHEAD OF THE
BUILDING RIDGE OVER THE NORTHERN BERING. THE SOUTHERN MAINLAND
STAYS IN A MOSTLY DRY PATTERN FOR THE FIRST HALF OF THE WEEK AS
SUBSIDENCE OCCURS ALONG THE RIDGE. RAIN AND SNOW IS LARGELY
CONFINED AROUND THE LOW SOUTH OF THE ALASKA PENINSULA THROUGH
MUCH OF THE WEEK.

THE MAIN CHALLENGES IN THE LONG RANGE FORECAST ARE THE TEMPERATURES
AND PRECIPITATION NEXT WEDNESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY. THE RIDGE OVER
THE SOUTHERN MAINLAND BEGINS TO BREAK DOWN MID WEEK AS A STRONG
STORM SYSTEM PUSHES IN FROM THE NORTHWEST. THERE IS A GREAT AMOUNT
OF UNCERTAINTY ON HOW QUICKLY THE RIDGE BREAKS DOWN...SO KEPT A
DRIER TREND INTACT THROUGHOUT NEXT WEEK. AFTER A BRIEF WARMER
TREND AT THE BEGINNING OF THE WEEK...THE SOUTHERN MAINLAND RETURNS
TO COLDER THAN NORMAL TEMPERATURES.

&&

.AFC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
PUBLIC...NONE.
MARINE...GALE WARNING 127 131 132 138 150 155 172 178.
         HEAVY FREEZING SPRAY WARNING 160.
FIRE WEATHER...NONE.

&&

SYNOPSIS AND MODEL DISCUSSION...EZ
SOUTHCENTRAL ALASKA...JA
SOUTHWEST ALASKA/BERING SEA/ALEUTIANS...DS
LONG TERM...KH