Gale Warning 697, NWS Anchorage, AK

912 
FZAK61 PAFC 041257
OFFAER

OFFSHORE WATERS FORECAST
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ANCHORAGE AK
357 AM AKST WED NOV 4 2015

OFFSHORE WATERS FORECAST FOR THE GULF OF ALASKA WEST OF 144W

WIND FORECASTS REFLECT THE PREDOMINANT SPEED AND DIRECTION
EXPECTED. SEA FORECASTS REPRESENT AN AVERAGE OF THE HIGHEST
ONE-THIRD OF THE COMBINED WIND WAVE AND SWELL HEIGHT.

PKZ399-050200-
357 AM AKST WED NOV 4 2015
.SYNOPSIS FOR THE WESTERN GULF OF ALASKA...

A FRONT WILL ENTER THE WESTERN GULF THIS EVENING...THEN MOVE INTO
THE NORTHERN GULF BY THU AFTERNOON AND REMAINS IN PLACE THROUGH
FRI. A 971 MB LOW NEAR 57N 159W THU AFTERNOON MOVES TO 58N 152W
EARLY FRI.

$$

PKZ351-050200-
GULF OF ALASKA OFFSHORE NORTH OF 57N AND WEST OF 144W-
357 AM AKST WED NOV 4 2015

...GALE WARNING TONIGHT AND THURSDAY...

.TODAY...W WIND 15 TO 25 KT. SEAS 6 TO 11 FT.
.TONIGHT...S WIND UP TO 20 KT BECOMING SE 20 TO 35 KT AFTER
MIDNIGHT. SEAS 5 TO 8 FT.
.THU...SE WIND 25 TO 40 KT BECOMING S IN THE AFTERNOON. SEAS 7 TO
11 FT. RAIN.
.THU NIGHT...SW WIND 20 TO 30 KT. SEAS 12 TO 18 FT.
.FRI...W WIND 15 TO 30 KT. SEAS 15 TO 23 FT.
.SAT...NW WIND 20 TO 35 KT. SEAS 11 TO 18 FT.
.SUN...W WIND 25 KT. SEAS 7 TO 12 FT.

$$

PKZ352-050200-
GULF OF ALASKA OFFSHORE SOUTH OF 57N NORTH OF 55N AND WEST OF
144W-
357 AM AKST WED NOV 4 2015

...GALE WARNING THURSDAY...

.TODAY...SW WIND 10 TO 20 KT. SEAS 7 TO 12 FT.
.TONIGHT...SE WIND 15 TO 30 KT. SEAS 7 TO 10 FT. RAIN.
.THU...SW WIND 25 TO 35 KT. SEAS 9 TO 14 FT. RAIN.
.THU NIGHT...SW WIND 30 TO 40 KT. SEAS 14 TO 29 FT.
.FRI...W WIND 25 TO 40 KT. SEAS 18 TO 28 FT.
.SAT...NW WIND 25 TO 35 KT. SEAS 15 TO 21 FT.
.SUN...W WIND 20 TO 30 KT. SEAS 8 TO 16 FT.

$$

442 
FZAK61 PAFC 050010
OFFAER

OFFSHORE WATERS FORECAST
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ANCHORAGE AK
310 PM AKST WED NOV 4 2015

OFFSHORE WATERS FORECAST FOR THE GULF OF ALASKA WEST OF 144W

WIND FORECASTS REFLECT THE PREDOMINANT SPEED AND DIRECTION
EXPECTED. SEA FORECASTS REPRESENT AN AVERAGE OF THE HIGHEST
ONE-THIRD OF THE COMBINED WIND WAVE AND SWELL HEIGHT.

PKZ399-051430-
310 PM AKST WED NOV 4 2015
.SYNOPSIS FOR THE WESTERN GULF OF ALASKA...
A 1009 MB LOW AT 59N 141W WILL DISSIPATE THU EVENING. A FRONT ENTERS
THE GULF OF ALASKA SOUTHWEST OF KODIAK ISLAND WED EVENING AND
MOVES ACROSS THE GULF BY FRI EVENING. THE ASSOCIATED 974 MB LOW
MOVES TO NEAR 58N 156W THU EVENING AND SHIFTS TO 59N 146W AS A 982
MB LOW BY FRI EVENING.

$$

PKZ351-051430-
GULF OF ALASKA OFFSHORE NORTH OF 57N AND WEST OF 144W-
310 PM AKST WED NOV 4 2015

...GALE WARNING THROUGH THURSDAY...

.TONIGHT...S WIND UP TO 20 KT BECOMING SE 20 TO 35 KT AFTER
MIDNIGHT. SEAS 6 TO 9 FT.
.THU...SE WIND 30 TO 45 KT BECOMING SW 25 TO 35 KT IN THE
AFTERNOON. SEAS 8 TO 12 FT. RAIN.
.THU NIGHT...SW WIND 20 TO 30 KT. SEAS 13 FT BUILDING TO 14 TO 19
FT AFTER MIDNIGHT. RAIN.
.FRI...SW WIND 15 TO 30 KT. SEAS 15 TO 23 FT.
.FRI NIGHT...W WIND 20 TO 35 KT. SEAS 15 TO 20 FT.
.SAT...NW WIND 25 TO 40 KT. SEAS 11 TO 18 FT.
.SUN THROUGH MON...SW WIND 15 TO 25 KT. SEAS 7 TO 12 FT.

$$

PKZ352-051430-
GULF OF ALASKA OFFSHORE SOUTH OF 57N NORTH OF 55N AND WEST OF
144W-
310 PM AKST WED NOV 4 2015

...GALE WARNING THURSDAY AND THURSDAY NIGHT...

.TONIGHT...SE WIND 15 TO 30 KT. SEAS 7 TO 10 FT. RAIN.
.THU...SW WIND 25 TO 35 KT. SEAS 10 TO 15 FT. RAIN.
.THU NIGHT...SW WIND 30 TO 40 KT. SEAS 15 TO 28 FT.
.FRI...W WIND 30 TO 40 KT. SEAS 22 TO 28 FT.
.FRI NIGHT...W WIND 30 TO 40 KT. SEAS 18 TO 25 FT.
.SAT...NW WIND 25 TO 40 KT. SEAS 12 TO 20 FT.
.SUN THROUGH MON...SW WIND 25 KT. SEAS 9 TO 14 FT.

$$

335 
FZAK61 PAFC 051213
OFFAER

OFFSHORE WATERS FORECAST
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ANCHORAGE AK
313 AM AKST THU NOV 5 2015

OFFSHORE WATERS FORECAST FOR THE GULF OF ALASKA WEST OF 144W

WIND FORECASTS REFLECT THE PREDOMINANT SPEED AND DIRECTION
EXPECTED. SEA FORECASTS REPRESENT AN AVERAGE OF THE HIGHEST
ONE-THIRD OF THE COMBINED WIND WAVE AND SWELL HEIGHT.

PKZ399-060245-
313 AM AKST THU NOV 5 2015
.SYNOPSIS FOR THE WESTERN GULF OF ALASKA...

A FRONT IN THE WESTERN GULF MOVES ACROSS THE GULF BY FRI EVENING.
THE ASSOCIATED 965 MB LOW MOVES TO NEAR 58N 153W EARLY FRI AT 977
MB...THEN SHIFTS TO 60N 142W AS A 987 MB LOW BY SAT MORNING.

$$

PKZ351-060245-
GULF OF ALASKA OFFSHORE NORTH OF 57N AND WEST OF 144W-
313 AM AKST THU NOV 5 2015

...GALE WARNING TODAY...

.TODAY...SE WIND 30 TO 45 KT. SEAS 8 TO 13 FT. RAIN.
.TONIGHT...SW WIND 30 KT. SEAS 13 TO 17 FT. RAIN SHOWERS.
.FRI...W WIND 15 TO 30 KT. SEAS 14 TO 21 FT. RAIN SHOWERS.
.FRI NIGHT...W WIND 20 TO 35 KT. SEAS 15 TO 20 FT.
.SAT...NW WIND 25 TO 40 KT. SEAS 11 TO 19 FT.
.SUN THROUGH MON...SW WIND 15 TO 25 KT. SEAS 5 TO 10 FT.

$$

PKZ352-060245-
GULF OF ALASKA OFFSHORE SOUTH OF 57N NORTH OF 55N AND WEST OF
144W-
313 AM AKST THU NOV 5 2015

...GALE WARNING THROUGH FRIDAY...

.TODAY...SE WIND 20 TO 35 KT BECOMING SW IN THE AFTERNOON. SEAS 9
TO 15 FT. RAIN.
.TONIGHT...SW WIND 30 TO 40 KT. SEAS 14 TO 27 FT. RAIN SHOWERS.
.FRI...W WIND 30 TO 40 KT. SEAS 22 TO 26 FT. RAIN SHOWERS.
.FRI NIGHT...W WIND 30 TO 40 KT. SEAS 19 TO 24 FT.
.SAT...NW WIND 25 TO 40 KT. SEAS 12 TO 20 FT.
.SUN THROUGH MON...SW WIND 25 KT. SEAS 7 TO 11 FT.

$$

099 
FZAK61 PAFC 060019
OFFAER

OFFSHORE WATERS FORECAST
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ANCHORAGE AK
319 PM AKST THU NOV 5 2015

OFFSHORE WATERS FORECAST FOR THE GULF OF ALASKA WEST OF 144W

WIND FORECASTS REFLECT THE PREDOMINANT SPEED AND DIRECTION
EXPECTED. SEA FORECASTS REPRESENT AN AVERAGE OF THE HIGHEST
ONE-THIRD OF THE COMBINED WIND WAVE AND SWELL HEIGHT.

PKZ399-061500-
319 PM AKST THU NOV 5 2015
.SYNOPSIS FOR THE WESTERN GULF OF ALASKA...
A 975 MB LOW ENTERS THE WESTERN GULF OF ALASKA AT 57N 157W 
AND MOVES TO 58N 141W AS A 997 MB LOW BY SAT EVENING.

$$

PKZ351-061500-
GULF OF ALASKA OFFSHORE NORTH OF 57N AND WEST OF 144W-
319 PM AKST THU NOV 5 2015

...GALE WARNING FRIDAY NIGHT...

.TONIGHT...SW WIND 30 KT. SEAS 13 TO 17 FT. RAIN SHOWERS.
.FRI...W WIND 15 TO 30 KT. SEAS 14 TO 21 FT. RAIN SHOWERS.
ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS E OF 146 W.
.FRI NIGHT...W WIND 15 TO 30 KT INCREASING TO 25 TO 35 KT AFTER
MIDNIGHT. RAIN SHOWERS AND ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS E OF 146 W IN
THE EVENING. SEAS 14 TO 19 FT.
.SAT...NW WIND 25 TO 40 KT. SEAS 13 TO 19 FT.
.SAT NIGHT...NW WIND 20 TO 35 KT. SEAS 9 TO 17 FT.
.SUN THROUGH TUE...W WIND 15 TO 30 KT. SEAS 8 TO 13 FT.

$$

PKZ352-061500-
GULF OF ALASKA OFFSHORE SOUTH OF 57N NORTH OF 55N AND WEST OF
144W-
319 PM AKST THU NOV 5 2015

...GALE WARNING THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT...

.TONIGHT...SW WIND 30 TO 40 KT. SEAS 14 TO 26 FT. RAIN SHOWERS.
.FRI...W WIND 30 TO 40 KT. SEAS 21 TO 26 FT. RAIN SHOWERS.
.FRI NIGHT...W WIND 30 TO 40 KT. SEAS 19 TO 24 FT.
.SAT...NW WIND 30 TO 40 KT. SEAS 15 TO 21 FT.
.SAT NIGHT...W WIND 20 TO 35 KT. SEAS 10 TO 18 FT.
.SUN THROUGH MON...W WIND 15 TO 30 KT. SEAS 8 TO 12 FT.
.TUE...W WIND 20 TO 30 KT. SEAS 11 TO 19 FT.

$$

791 
FZAK61 PAFC 061214
OFFAER

OFFSHORE WATERS FORECAST
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ANCHORAGE AK
314 AM AKST FRI NOV 6 2015

OFFSHORE WATERS FORECAST FOR THE GULF OF ALASKA WEST OF 144W

WIND FORECASTS REFLECT THE PREDOMINANT SPEED AND DIRECTION
EXPECTED. SEA FORECASTS REPRESENT AN AVERAGE OF THE HIGHEST
ONE-THIRD OF THE COMBINED WIND WAVE AND SWELL HEIGHT.

PKZ399-070245-
314 AM AKST FRI NOV 6 2015
.SYNOPSIS FOR THE WESTERN GULF OF ALASKA...

A 979 MB LOW NEAR 58N 152W AND MOVES TO 60N 141W AS A 988 MB LOW
BY EARLY SAT. THIS LOW REMAINS STATIONARY AND WEAKENS TO 1004 MB
BY SUN.

$$

PKZ351-070245-
GULF OF ALASKA OFFSHORE NORTH OF 57N AND WEST OF 144W-
314 AM AKST FRI NOV 6 2015

...GALE WARNING TONIGHT AND SATURDAY...

.TODAY...SW WIND 15 TO 30 KT BECOMING NW IN THE AFTERNOON. SEAS
14 TO 21 FT.
.TONIGHT...NW WIND 25 TO 40 KT. SEAS 14 TO 19 FT.
.SAT...NW WIND 25 TO 40 KT. SEAS 14 TO 20 FT.
.SAT NIGHT...NW WIND 20 TO 35 KT. SEAS 9 TO 16 FT.
.SUN THROUGH TUE...W WIND 20 TO 35 KT. SEAS 9 TO 14 FT.

$$

PKZ352-070245-
GULF OF ALASKA OFFSHORE SOUTH OF 57N NORTH OF 55N AND WEST OF
144W-
314 AM AKST FRI NOV 6 2015

...GALE WARNING THROUGH SATURDAY...

.TODAY...W WIND 30 TO 40 KT. SEAS 20 TO 26 FT. RAIN SHOWERS.
.TONIGHT...W WIND 30 TO 40 KT. SEAS 18 TO 23 FT.
.SAT...NW WIND 30 TO 40 KT. SEAS 13 TO 21 FT.
.SAT NIGHT...W WIND 20 TO 35 KT. SEAS 10 TO 18 FT.
.SUN THROUGH MON...W WIND 15 TO 30 KT. SEAS 8 TO 13 FT.
.TUE...W WIND 15 TO 30 KT. SEAS 11 TO 19 FT.

$$

903 
FZAK61 PAFC 070011
OFFAER

OFFSHORE WATERS FORECAST
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ANCHORAGE AK
311 PM AKST FRI NOV 6 2015

OFFSHORE WATERS FORECAST FOR THE GULF OF ALASKA WEST OF 144W

WIND FORECASTS REFLECT THE PREDOMINANT SPEED AND DIRECTION
EXPECTED. SEA FORECASTS REPRESENT AN AVERAGE OF THE HIGHEST
ONE-THIRD OF THE COMBINED WIND WAVE AND SWELL HEIGHT.

PKZ399-071415-
311 PM AKST FRI NOV 6 2015
.SYNOPSIS FOR THE WESTERN GULF OF ALASKA...
A 980 MB LOW NEAR 58N 152W MOVES TO 59N 140W AND WEAKENS TO 1008
MB SAT NIGHT AND DISSIPATES SUN AFTERNOON.

$$

PKZ351-071415-
GULF OF ALASKA OFFSHORE NORTH OF 57N AND WEST OF 144W-
311 PM AKST FRI NOV 6 2015

...GALE WARNING THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT...

.TONIGHT...W WIND 25 TO 40 KT. SEAS 14 TO 19 FT.
.SAT...NW WIND 25 TO 40 KT. SEAS 13 TO 19 FT.
.SAT NIGHT...NW WIND 25 TO 35 KT. SEAS 9 TO 16 FT.
.SUN...SW WIND 15 TO 30 KT. SEAS 7 TO 11 FT.
.SUN NIGHT...SW WIND 25 TO 35 KT. SEAS 9 TO 14 FT.
.MON THROUGH WED...SW WIND 15 TO 30 KT. SEAS 9 TO 14 FT.

$$

PKZ352-071415-
GULF OF ALASKA OFFSHORE SOUTH OF 57N NORTH OF 55N AND WEST OF
144W-
311 PM AKST FRI NOV 6 2015

...GALE WARNING THROUGH SATURDAY...

.TONIGHT...W WIND 30 TO 40 KT. SEAS 18 TO 22 FT.
.SAT...NW WIND 30 TO 40 KT. SEAS 14 TO 21 FT.
.SAT NIGHT...W WIND 30 KT. SEAS 9 TO 17 FT.
.SUN...SW WIND 15 TO 30 KT. SEAS 9 TO 13 FT.
.SUN NIGHT...W WIND 30 KT. SEAS 10 TO 16 FT.
.MON THROUGH WED...SW WIND 15 TO 30 KT. SEAS 10 TO 18 FT.

$$

399 
FZAK61 PAFC 071226
OFFAER

OFFSHORE WATERS FORECAST
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ANCHORAGE AK
326 AM AKST SAT NOV 7 2015

OFFSHORE WATERS FORECAST FOR THE GULF OF ALASKA WEST OF 144W

WIND FORECASTS REFLECT THE PREDOMINANT SPEED AND DIRECTION
EXPECTED. SEA FORECASTS REPRESENT AN AVERAGE OF THE HIGHEST
ONE-THIRD OF THE COMBINED WIND WAVE AND SWELL HEIGHT.

PKZ399-080300-
326 AM AKST SAT NOV 7 2015
.SYNOPSIS FOR THE WESTERN GULF OF ALASKA...

A 990 MB LOW NEAR 59N 140W REMAINS STATIONARY...WEAKENING TO 1008
MB SUN MORNING AND DISSIPATING SUN EVENING. A 994 MB LOW DEVELOPS
NEAR 59N 152W SUN AFTERNOON AND MOVES INLAND NEAR 61N 147W EARLY
MON.

$$

PKZ351-080300-
GULF OF ALASKA OFFSHORE NORTH OF 57N AND WEST OF 144W-
326 AM AKST SAT NOV 7 2015

...GALE WARNING THROUGH TONIGHT...

.TODAY...NW WIND 25 TO 40 KT. SEAS 13 TO 19 FT.
.TONIGHT...NW WIND 20 TO 35 KT. SEAS 9 TO 16 FT.
.SUN...W WIND 10 TO 20 KT BECOMING SW 15 TO 30 KT IN THE
AFTERNOON. SEAS 7 TO 11 FT.
.SUN NIGHT...SW WIND 25 TO 35 KT. SEAS 8 TO 13 FT.
.MON THROUGH WED...SW WIND 15 TO 30 KT. SEAS 8 TO 16 FT.

$$

PKZ352-080300-
GULF OF ALASKA OFFSHORE SOUTH OF 57N NORTH OF 55N AND WEST OF
144W-
326 AM AKST SAT NOV 7 2015

...GALE WARNING TODAY...

.TODAY...NW WIND 30 TO 40 KT. SEAS 13 TO 20 FT.
.TONIGHT...W WIND 20 TO 30 KT. SEAS 9 TO 17 FT.
.SUN...SW WIND 15 TO 30 KT. SEAS 9 TO 13 FT. RAIN.
.SUN NIGHT...W WIND 30 KT. SEAS 9 TO 15 FT.
.MON THROUGH TUE...W WIND 20 TO 30 KT. SEAS 9 TO 17 FT.
.WED...SW WIND 15 TO 25 KT. SEAS 14 TO 22 FT.

$$

781 
FZAK61 PAFC 080010
OFFAER

OFFSHORE WATERS FORECAST
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ANCHORAGE AK
310 PM AKST SAT NOV 7 2015

OFFSHORE WATERS FORECAST FOR THE GULF OF ALASKA WEST OF 144W

WIND FORECASTS REFLECT THE PREDOMINANT SPEED AND DIRECTION
EXPECTED. SEA FORECASTS REPRESENT AN AVERAGE OF THE HIGHEST
ONE-THIRD OF THE COMBINED WIND WAVE AND SWELL HEIGHT.

PKZ399-081400-
310 PM AKST SAT NOV 7 2015
.SYNOPSIS FOR THE WESTERN GULF OF ALASKA...
A 992 MB LOW NEAR 59N 143W DISSIPATES SUNDAY MORNING. A STRONG
FRONT WILL ENTER THE WESTERN GULF OF ALASKA SUN AFTERNOON AND WILL
REACH THE EASTERN GULF MONDAY MORNING. WEAK HIGH PRESSURE WILL
BUILD IN THROUGH MONDAY EVENING.

$$

PKZ351-081400-
GULF OF ALASKA OFFSHORE NORTH OF 57N AND WEST OF 144W-
310 PM AKST SAT NOV 7 2015

...GALE WARNING TONIGHT AND SUNDAY NIGHT...

.TONIGHT...NW WIND 20 TO 35 KT. SEAS 9 TO 16 FT.
.SUN...W WIND 20 KT. SEAS 7 TO 11 FT.
.SUN NIGHT...SW WIND 25 TO 35 KT. SEAS 7 TO 12 FT. RAIN.
.MON...W WIND 30 KT. SEAS 11 FT.
.MON NIGHT...W WIND 15 TO 25 KT. SEAS 8 TO 11 FT.
.TUE THROUGH WED...S WIND 20 TO 35 KT. SEAS 9 TO 17 FT.
.THU...NW WIND 20 TO 35 KT. SEAS 16 TO 24 FT.

$$

PKZ352-081400-
GULF OF ALASKA OFFSHORE SOUTH OF 57N NORTH OF 55N AND WEST OF
144W-
310 PM AKST SAT NOV 7 2015

.TONIGHT...W WIND 20 TO 30 KT. SEAS 9 TO 17 FT.
.SUN...SW WIND 15 TO 30 KT. SEAS 8 TO 13 FT. RAIN.
.SUN NIGHT...W WIND 20 TO 30 KT. SEAS 9 TO 14 FT. RAIN.
.MON...W WIND 20 TO 30 KT. SEAS 13 FT.
.MON NIGHT...W WIND 20 TO 30 KT. SEAS 11 FT.
.TUE THROUGH WED...SW WIND 20 TO 35 KT. SEAS 13 TO 21 FT.
.THU...W WIND 25 TO 40 KT. SEAS 20 TO 32 FT.

$$

SOUTHCENTRAL AND SOUTHWEST ALASKA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ANCHORAGE AK
531 AM AKST TUE NOV 3 2015

.ANALYSIS AND UPPER LEVELS...
THE BERING SEA AND SOUTHWEST ALASKA REMAIN IN GENERAL WEST TO
SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW AROUND A LARGE UPPER LEVEL LOW CENTERED JUST TO
THE WEST OF THE BERING STRAIT. THE LATEST LOW PRESSURE WAVE MOVING
THROUGH THIS FLOW IN THE WESTERN BERING IS CURRENTLY AROUND 58N
AND 173E AND SWINGING UP TO THE EAST NORTHEAST. THE NEXT INCOMING
LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM IS BEGINNING TO SPIN UP WELL SOUTHWEST OF THE
WESTERN ALEUTIAN WITH THE SUPPORT OF A RATHER STRONG JET STREAM.

FURTHER EAST A STRONG FRONTAL SYSTEM IS SWEEPING UP THROUGH THE
WESTERN GULF COASTAL WATERS THIS MORNING. WHILE THIS CENTRAL LOW
IS NOT ALL THAT DEEP IT IS A RATHER COMPACT SYSTEM WITH A VERY TIGHT
PRESSURE GRADIENT ALONG THE BACK SIDE OF THE LOW...THEREFORE
EXPECTING TO SEE WINDS RAPIDLY SHIFTING TO WEST TO NORTHWEST
STORMS IMMEDIATELY AFTER THE PASSAGE OF THE SURFACE LOW.
PRECIPITATION WISE THE SYSTEM IS LARGER CURRENTLY SPREADING LIGHT
SNOW AS FAR NORTH AS THE MATANUSKA AND SOUTHERN SUSITNA VALLEYS.

&&

.MODEL DISCUSSION...
SYNOPTIC MODEL AGREEMENT REMAINS VERY GOOD FOR BOTH THE SURFACE
LOW SWEEPING THROUGH THE WESTERN GULF THIS MORNING AND THE STRONG
LOW TRACKING UP INTO THE CENTRAL ALEUTIANS WEDNESDAY. NAM WAS
PREFERRED IN THE EASTERN DOMAIN FOR ITS HIGHER RESOLUTION AND GFS
OUT WEST FOR ITS CONSISTENT TRACK OF THE BIG MIDWEEK LOW. BY
THU...THIS AFORE MENTIONED BIG LOW CROSSES INTO THE GULF NEAR
KODIAK. MODELS CONTINUE TO BE NEARLY IN LOCK-STEP WITH THIS
LOW...EVEN AS IT TRACKS ALONG THE ALEUTIAN CHAIN AND ACROSS THE
ALASKA PENINSULA. THE LONE EXCEPTION TO THIS CONSENSUS WAS THE
NAM. IT TRACKS THE LOW SOUTH OF THE KODIAK ISLAND AND WAS
DISCARDED AS AN OUTLIER.

&&

.SHORT TERM FORECAST SOUTHCENTRAL ALASKA (DAYS 1 AND 2)...

A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM CURRENTLY CENTERED OVER KODIAK ISLAND IS
BRINGING WIDESPREAD PRECIPITATION ACROSS THE SOUTHCENTRAL
MAINLAND THIS MORNING. WHILE SNOWFALL IS GENERALLY LIGHT ACROSS
PORTIONS OF THE ANCHORAGE BOWL AND WESTERN KENAI...IT IS EXPECTED
TO CONTINUE INTO THE MORNING HOURS AS THIS LOW DRIFTS WESTWARD
INTO THE GULF OF ALASKA. IN ADDITION...PRESSURE GRADIENTS ARE NOT
FAVORABLE FOR SIGNIFICANT DOWNSLOPING ACROSS MAINLAND
SOUTHCENTRAL. AS A RESULT...UP TO ONE OR TWO INCHES OF SNOW ARE
EXPECTED TO ACCUMULATE BEFORE THE AFTERNOON FROM THE KENAI
PENINSULA TO THE ANCHORAGE BOWL. MEANWHILE...IN SOUTHERN AND
EASTERN PORTIONS OF THE KENAI PENINSULA...TEMPERATURES ARE JUST
WARM ENOUGH THIS MORNING FOR RAIN TO BE FALLING INSTEAD OF SNOW.
BY THIS AFTERNOON...TEMPERATURES ARE EXPECTED TO BE WARM ENOUGH
FOR A RAIN AND SNOW MIX AS SHOWERS TAPER ACROSS MOST OF
SOUTHCENTRAL.

MEANWHILE...THIS LOW IS ALREADY BRINGING GUSTY NORTHWEST WINDS TO
KODIAK ISLAND...WHICH ARE EXPECTED TO DIMINISH AS THE LOW DRIFTS
INTO THE GULF THIS AFTERNOON. GENERALLY DRY CONDITIONS ARE
EXPECTED ACROSS SOUTHCENTRAL THIS EVENING INTO WEDNESDAY...BEFORE
THE NEXT FRONTAL SYSTEM MOVES INTO THE GULF WEDNESDAY NIGHT. &&

.SHORT TERM FORECAST SOUTHWEST ALASKA (DAYS 1 AND 2)...

AS LOW PRESSURE CROSSES INTO THE EASTERN GULF OF AK...A FEW RAIN
AND SNOW SHOWERS WILL PERSIST OVER SW AK TODAY. AS THE NEXT FRONT
MOVES ACROSS THE BERING AND REACHES THE WEST COAST...SOME RAIN AND
SNOW WILL CAN BE EXPECTED TONIGHT ALONG THE COAST. THIS WILL THEN
MOVE INLAND ON WED. THE FRONT ASSOCIATED WITH THE MAJOR BERING
LOW WILL THEN BRING MORE PRECIPITATION TO THE SOUTHWEST WED NIGHT.
WARMER AIR WITH THE FEATURE WILL KEEP MOST OF THE PRECIPITATION AS
RAIN.

&&

.SHORT TERM FORECAST BERING SEA/ALEUTIANS (DAYS 1 AND 2)...

A FRONT MOVING ACROSS THE EASTERN BERING TODAY WILL BRING SOME
RAIN TO THE PRIBILOFS AND EASTERN PORTIONS OF THE CHAIN THROUGH
TONIGHT. THE NEXT MAJOR LOW WILL BRING AT LEAST STRONG WINDS TO
MOST OF THE CHAIN TUE NIGHT THROUGH WED NIGHT. AS THE LOW MOVES
EAST...THE WESTERN FLANK WILL EXPERIENCE THE STRONGEST
WINDS...POSSIBLY REACHING HIGH WIND CRITERIA FROM JUST WEST OF
ADAK TO EAST OF ATKA WED AND WED NIGHT. MOST OF THE ALEUTIANS WILL
EXPERIENCE PLENTY OF RAIN WITH THIS SYSTEM AS WELL.

&&

.LONG TERM FORECAST (DAYS 3 THROUGH 7...THU THROUGH MON)...

THE LONG TERM FORECAST IS LARGELY DOMINATED BY A DEEP AREA OF LOW
PRESSURE OVER THE EASTERN ALEUTIANS. BY THURSDAY EVENING...THE
LOW WILL BE ON A WEAKENING TREND AS IT PUSHES FROM DUTCH HARBOR
TOWARD KODIAK ISLAND. ALTHOUGH THE LOW WILL BE WEAKENING...STRONG
NORTHWESTERLY WINDS WILL BE OBSERVED ACROSS THE ALEUTIAN CHAIN AS
COLD AIR ADVECTION WILL ALLOW FOR STRONGER WINDS TO MIX DOWN TO
THE SURFACE. IN ADDITION...A WEAK ISALLOBARIC COMPONENT WILL BE
DEVELOPING OVER THE CENTRAL ALEUTIANS IN RESPONSE TO WEAK SHORT
WAVE RIDGING DEVELOPING BEHIND THE SFC LOW. THIS WILL LEAD TO
WIDESPREAD WIND GUSTS OF 60 TO 70 MPH WITH POTENTIALLY STRONGER
GUSTS THROUGH NORTHWEST ORIENTED GAPS. SEAS WILL ALSO BE A
CONCERN AS THE LOW SKIRTS ACROSS THE ALEUTIANS. WAVE HEIGHTS OF 25
TO 35 FT WILL BE SEEN ON THE PACIFIC SIDE OF THE ALEUTIANS WHILE
THE SOUTHERN BERING SEA COULD SEE SEAS OF 20 TO 30 FT. SOME OF THE
GUSTY SOUTHEAST WINDS SHOULD ALSO MAKE IT INTO THE SOUTHWEST
MAINLAND AS WE GO THROUGH THE DAY ON THU. WIDESPREAD GUSTS TO 40
MPH LOOK VERY POSSIBLE WITH SOME STRONGER WINDS PUSHING THROUGH
THE GAPS ALONG THE ALEUTIAN RANGE.

PRECIPITATION TYPE WITH THIS SYSTEM LOOKS PRETTY SIMPLE AS A STOUT
WARM FRONT SLAMS INTO SOUTHWEST ALASKA LATE WEDNESDAY INTO
THURSDAY. 850 MB TEMPERATURES WILL QUICKLY WARM TO 0 TO -2 DEGREES
CELSIUS AND PRECIPITATION WILL FALL AS RAIN. HOWEVER...A FEW
LOCATIONS NEAR THE ALASKA RANGE AND THE LOWER KUSKOKWIM VALLEY MAY
HOLD ONTO COLD AIR LONG ENOUGH TO SUPPORT SNOW BEFORE EVENTUALLY
CHANGING OVER TO RAIN. THE SAME CAN BE SAID FOR SOUTHCENTRAL WHERE
PRECIPITATION ON THURSDAY AND FRIDAY COULD START AS SNOW BUT
SHOULD TURN OVER TO RAIN WITH WARMING 850 MB TEMPERATURES.
EVENTUALLY COLDER AIR WILL BEGIN FILTERING IN BEHIND THE LOW AND
GRADUALLY CHANGE PRECIP FROM RAIN TO SNOW STARTING ACROSS
SOUTHWEST ALASKA ON FRIDAY AND SOUTHCENTRAL ALASKA ON SATURDAY.
DOWNSLOPING CONDITIONS WILL NEED TO BE MONITORED ON THE LEE SIDE
OF THE ALEUTIAN RANGE AND CHUGACH MOUNTAINS WITH A STOUT LOW LEVEL
JET PASSING ACROSS THE MOUNTAINS.

ATTENTION WILL THEN TURN BACK TO THE BERING SEA AS ANOTHER NEAR
GALE FORCE FRONT WILL PUSH ACROSS THE BERING SEA ON SUNDAY AS A
DEVELOPING AREA OF LOW PRESSURE PUSHES OFF OF KAMCHATKA. MODELS
ARE IN A BIT OF DISAGREEMENT WITH TIMING AT THIS TIME BUT IT IS
ALSO 7 DAYS OUT. REGARDLESS...THE UPPER LEVEL PATTERN CONTINUES TO
FAVOR AN ACTIVE PATTERN AND NO PATTERN CHANGE APPEARS IN SIGHT AT
THIS TIME.

&&

.AFC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
PUBLIC...HIGH WIND WATCH 187.
MARINE...STORM WARNING 130 131 132 174 175 176 177 178.
	GALE WARNING 119 120 125 136 137 138 139 150 155 165 170 172 173
                 179.

&&

SYNOPSIS AND MODEL DISCUSSION...JR
SOUTHCENTRAL ALASKA...EN
SOUTHWEST ALASKA/BERING SEA/ALEUTIANS...DS
LONG TERM...MC/MSO

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ANCHORAGE AK
1058 AM AKST TUE NOV 03 2015

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

1057 AM     SNOW             2 N CLAM GULCH          60.25N 151.40W
11/03/2015  M5.2 INCH                           AK   PUBLIC

            SNOW TOTAL STARTING THE NIGHT OF 11/2

&&

JPW