Gale Warning 577, NWS Anchorage, AK

Issued

Sep 24, 2015, 3:00 PM AKDT (23:00 UTC)

Expired

Sep 25, 2015, 3:30 AM AKDT

In force

13 hr

Issued by

NWS Anchorage, AK

331 
FZAK51 PAFC 242300
CWFAER

COASTAL WATERS FORECAST
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ANCHORAGE ALASKA
300 PM AKDT THU SEP 24 2015

COASTAL WATERS FORECAST FOR THE NORTHERN GULF OF ALASKA COAST
UP TO 100 NM OUT INCLUDING KODIAK ISLAND AND COOK INLET.

WIND FORECASTS REFLECT THE PREDOMINANT SPEED AND DIRECTION
EXPECTED. SEA FORECASTS REPRESENT AN AVERAGE OF THE HIGHEST
ONE-THIRD OF THE COMBINED WIND WAVE AND SWELL HEIGHT.

PKZ197-251130-
300 PM AKDT THU SEP 24 2015
.SYNOPSIS FOR THE NORTH GULF COAST+KODIAK ISLAND WATERS+
COOK INLET...
A BROAD AREA OF LOW PRESSURE WILL PERSIST AND REMAIN NEARLY
STATIONARY OVER THE EASTERN GULF THROUGH FRI AFTERNOON...THEN
DISSIPATE. A 1007 MB LOW WILL DEVELOP NEAR PRINCE WILLIAM SOUND
FRI AFTERNOON AND SLOWLY DRIFT EAST THROUGH SAT AFTERNOON.


$$

PKZ119-251130-
CAPE SUCKLING TO CAPE CLEARE-
300 PM AKDT THU SEP 24 2015

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FRIDAY AND FRIDAY NIGHT...

.TONIGHT...NW WIND 15 KT. SEAS 4 FT.
.FRI...SW WIND 15 KT INCREASING TO 25 KT IN THE AFTERNOON. NEAR
THE COAST...VARIABLE WIND 15 KT. SEAS 3 FT BUILDING TO 7 FT IN THE
AFTERNOON. RAIN.
.FRI NIGHT...W WIND 25 KT...EXCEPT VARIABLE 15 KT NEAR THE COAST.
SEAS 8 FT...EXCEPT 4 FT NEAR THE COAST.
.SAT...W WIND 20 KT. SEAS 7 FT.
.SAT NIGHT...S WIND 15 KT. SEAS 6 FT.
.SUN...SE WIND 25 KT. SEAS 7 FT.
.MON...S WIND 20 KT. SEAS 8 FT.
.TUE...SW WIND 25 KT. SEAS 13 FT.

$$

PKZ120-251130-
CAPE CLEARE TO GORE POINT-
300 PM AKDT THU SEP 24 2015

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FRIDAY AND FRIDAY NIGHT...

.TONIGHT...NW WIND 15 KT. SEAS 4 FT.
.FRI...SW WIND 20 KT INCREASING TO 30 KT IN THE AFTERNOON.
SEAS 4 FT BUILDING TO 7 FT IN THE AFTERNOON.
.FRI NIGHT...W WIND 30 KT. SEAS 9 FT.
.SAT...W WIND 25 KT. SEAS 8 FT.
.SAT NIGHT...S WIND 15 KT. SEAS 6 FT.
.SUN...SE WIND 15 KT. SEAS 6 FT.
.MON...S WIND 20 KT. SEAS 7 FT.
.TUE...W WIND 30 KT. SEAS 12 FT.

$$

PKZ121-251130-
RESURRECTION BAY-
300 PM AKDT THU SEP 24 2015

.TONIGHT...N WIND 15 KT DIMINISHING TO 10 KT AFTER MIDNIGHT.
SEAS 3 FT.
.FRI...VARIABLE WIND LESS THAN 10 KT BECOMING S 15 KT IN THE
AFTERNOON. SEAS BUILDING TO 3 FT.
.FRI NIGHT...VARIABLE WIND 10 KT BECOMING N AFTER MIDNIGHT.
SEAS 2 FT. HIGHER SEAS S OF CAINES HEAD.
.SAT...S WIND 10 KT. SEAS 2 FT.
.SAT NIGHT THROUGH SUN...N WIND 10 KT. SEAS 2 FT.
.MON...N WIND 15 KT. SEAS 3 FT.
.TUE...N WIND 20 KT. SEAS 3 FT.

$$

PKZ125-251130-
PRINCE WILLIAM SOUND-
300 PM AKDT THU SEP 24 2015

.TONIGHT...NW WIND 10 KT. SEAS 2 FT.
.FRI...VARIABLE WIND LESS THAN 10 KT BECOMING E 15 KT IN THE
AFTERNOON. SEAS 2 FT.
.FRI NIGHT...NE WIND 10 KT IN THE EVENING BECOMING VARIABLE LESS
THAN 10 KT. SEAS 2 FT.
.SAT AND SAT NIGHT...VARIABLE WIND LESS THAN 10 KT. SEAS 2 FT.
.SUN...NE WIND 10 KT. SEAS 2 FT.
.MON...SE WIND 15 KT. SEAS 2 FT.
.TUE...W WIND 10 KT. SEAS 2 FT.

$$

PKZ126-251130-
PORT VALDEZ-
300 PM AKDT THU SEP 24 2015

.TONIGHT...NE WIND 15 KT DIMINISHING TO 10 KT AFTER MIDNIGHT.
GUSTS TO 30 KT DURING THE EVENING. SEAS 3 FT.
.FRI...VARIABLE WIND LESS THAN 10 KT BECOMING W 10 KT IN THE
AFTERNOON. SEAS 2 FT. RAIN.
.FRI NIGHT...VARIABLE WIND LESS THAN 10 KT. SEAS 2 FT.
.SAT...VARIABLE WIND LESS THAN 10 KT. SEAS 2 FT.
.SAT NIGHT...NE WIND 10 KT. SEAS 2 FT.
.SUN THROUGH TUE...E WIND 10 KT. SEAS 2 FT.

$$

PKZ127-251130-
VALDEZ NARROWS-
300 PM AKDT THU SEP 24 2015

.TONIGHT...NE WIND 20 KT. SEAS 3 FT.
.FRI...NE WIND 10 KT. SEAS 2 FT. RAIN.
.FRI NIGHT...NE WIND 10 KT. SEAS 2 FT.
.SAT...NE WIND 10 KT. SEAS 2 FT.
.SAT NIGHT...NE WIND 15 KT. SEAS 3 FT.
.SUN THROUGH TUE...N WIND 15 KT. SEAS 3 FT.

$$

PKZ128-251130-
VALDEZ ARM-
300 PM AKDT THU SEP 24 2015

.TONIGHT...NE WIND 15 KT. SEAS 3 FT.
.FRI...NE WIND 10 KT. SEAS 2 FT. RAIN.
.FRI NIGHT...NE WIND 10 KT IN THE EVENING BECOMING VARIABLE LESS
THAN 10 KT. SEAS 2 FT SUBSIDING.
.SAT AND SAT NIGHT...NE WIND 10 KT. SEAS 2 FT.
.SUN THROUGH TUE...N WIND 10 KT. SEAS 2 FT.

$$

PKZ129-251130-
PASSAGE CANAL-
300 PM AKDT THU SEP 24 2015

.TONIGHT...W WIND 20 KT. GUSTS TO 40 KT NEAR
WHITTIER...DIMINISHING TOWARD EARLY MORNING. SEAS 3 FT.
.FRI...VARIABLE WIND LESS THAN 10 KT BECOMING E 10 KT IN THE
AFTERNOON. SEAS 2 FT. RAIN.
.FRI NIGHT...E WIND 10 KT BECOMING W AFTER MIDNIGHT. SEAS 2 FT.
.SAT AND SAT NIGHT...E WIND 10 KT. SEAS 2 FT.
.SUN...E WIND 10 KT. SEAS 2 FT.
.MON...E WIND 15 KT. SEAS 2 FT.
.TUE...E WIND 10 KT. SEAS 2 FT.

$$

PKZ130-251130-
WEST OF BARREN ISLANDS INCLUDING KAMISHAK BAY-
300 PM AKDT THU SEP 24 2015

...GALE WARNING FRIDAY...

.TONIGHT...W WIND 15 KT. SEAS 4 FT.
.FRI...SW WIND 25 KT BECOMING W 35 KT IN THE AFTERNOON. SEAS 6 FT
BUILDING TO 10 FT IN THE AFTERNOON.
.FRI NIGHT...W WIND 25 KT. SEAS 8 FT.
.SAT...SW WIND 15 KT. SEAS 5 FT.
.SAT NIGHT...VARIABLE WIND 10 KT. SEAS 3 FT.
.SUN...SE WIND 25 KT. SEAS 5 FT.
.MON...W WIND 20 KT. SEAS 5 FT.
.TUE...W WIND 25 KT. SEAS 5 FT.

$$

PKZ131-251130-
BARREN ISLANDS EAST-
300 PM AKDT THU SEP 24 2015

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FRIDAY AND FRIDAY NIGHT...

.TONIGHT...NW WIND 20 KT. SEAS 4 FT.
.FRI...SW WIND 25 KT. SEAS 5 FT.
.FRI NIGHT...W WIND 30 KT. SEAS 9 FT.
.SAT...SW WIND 20 KT. SEAS 7 FT.
.SAT NIGHT...S WIND 20 KT. SEAS 6 FT.
.SUN...SE WIND 20 KT. SEAS 6 FT.
.MON...SW WIND 20 KT. SEAS 7 FT.
.TUE...W WIND 25 KT. SEAS 11 FT.

$$

PKZ132-251130-
MARMOT ISLAND TO SITKINAK-
300 PM AKDT THU SEP 24 2015

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FRIDAY AND FRIDAY NIGHT...

.TONIGHT...W WIND 20 KT. SEAS 4 FT.
.FRI...W WIND 25 KT. SEAS 7 FT.
.FRI NIGHT...W WIND 25 KT. SEAS 8 FT.
.SAT AND SAT NIGHT...SW WIND 30 KT. SEAS 9 FT.
.SUN THROUGH MON...SW WIND 20 KT. SEAS 8 FT.
.TUE...W WIND 25 KT. SEAS 9 FT.

$$

PKZ136-251130-
CHINIAK BAY-
300 PM AKDT THU SEP 24 2015

.TONIGHT...W WIND 10 KT. SEAS 2 FT.
.FRI...W WIND 10 KT INCREASING TO 20 KT IN THE AFTERNOON.
SEAS BUILDING TO 4 FT.
.FRI NIGHT...W WIND 20 KT. SEAS 4 FT.
.SAT...SW WIND 15 KT. SEAS 2 FT.
.SAT NIGHT...SW WIND 10 KT. SEAS 2 FT.
.SUN...S WIND 15 KT. SEAS 2 FT.
.MON...SW WIND 15 KT. SEAS 3 FT.
.TUE...W WIND 20 KT. SEAS 3 FT.

$$

PKZ137-251130-
MARMOT BAY-
300 PM AKDT THU SEP 24 2015

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FRIDAY AND FRIDAY NIGHT...

.TONIGHT...W WIND 10 KT INCREASING TO 15 KT AFTER MIDNIGHT.
SEAS BUILDING TO 3 FT.
.FRI...W WIND 15 KT INCREASING TO 25 KT IN THE AFTERNOON.
SEAS 3 FT BUILDING TO 6 FT IN THE AFTERNOON.
.FRI NIGHT...W WIND 25 KT. SEAS 6 FT.
.SAT...SW WIND 15 KT. SEAS 2 FT.
.SAT NIGHT...S WIND 10 KT. SEAS 3 FT.
.SUN...S WIND 15 KT. SEAS 3 FT.
.MON...SW WIND 15 KT. SEAS 3 FT.
.TUE...W WIND 20 KT. SEAS 4 FT.

$$

PKZ138-251130-
SHELIKOF STRAIT-
300 PM AKDT THU SEP 24 2015

...GALE WARNING FRIDAY...

.TONIGHT...W WIND 15 KT. SEAS 4 FT.
.FRI...SW WIND 25 KT INCREASING TO 35 KT IN THE AFTERNOON.
SEAS 7 FT BUILDING TO 12 FT IN THE AFTERNOON.
.FRI NIGHT...SW WIND 30 KT DIMINISHING TO 20 KT AFTER MIDNIGHT.
SEAS 10 FT SUBSIDING TO 6 FT AFTER MIDNIGHT.
.SAT AND SAT NIGHT...S WIND 20 KT. SEAS 5 FT.
.SUN...S WIND 15 KT. SEAS 3 FT.
.MON...W WIND 20 KT. SEAS 5 FT.
.TUE...W WIND 25 KT. SEAS 5 FT.

$$

PKZ139-251130-
COOK INLET KALGIN ISLAND TO POINT BEDE-
300 PM AKDT THU SEP 24 2015

...GALE WARNING FRIDAY...

.TONIGHT...VARIABLE WIND LESS THAN 10 KT BECOMING SW 10 KT AFTER
MIDNIGHT. SEAS 3 FT.
.FRI...SW WIND 25 KT INCREASING TO 35 KT IN THE AFTERNOON. SEAS
8 FT BUILDING TO 14 FT IN THE AFTERNOON.
.FRI NIGHT...SW WIND 30 KT BECOMING W 15 KT AFTER MIDNIGHT. SEAS
10 FT SUBSIDING TO 6 FT AFTER MIDNIGHT.
.SAT...SW WIND 15 KT. SEAS 4 FT.
.SAT NIGHT...E WIND 10 KT. SEAS 3 FT.
.SUN...NE WIND 15 KT. SEAS 4 FT.
.MON...SW WIND 15 KT. SEAS 4 FT.
.TUE...W WIND 20 KT. SEAS 5 FT.

$$

PKZ140-251130-
COOK INLET NORTH OF KALGIN ISLAND-
300 PM AKDT THU SEP 24 2015

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FRIDAY...

.TONIGHT...VARIABLE WIND LESS THAN 10 KT BECOMING S 10 KT AFTER
MIDNIGHT. SEAS 3 FT.
.FRI...S WIND 25 KT. SEAS 6 FT BUILDING TO 9 FT BY MIDDAY.
.FRI NIGHT...SW WIND 15 KT BECOMING N 10 KT AFTER MIDNIGHT. SEAS
5 FT SUBSIDING.
.SAT AND SAT NIGHT...NE WIND 10 KT. SEAS 3 FT.
.SUN...NE WIND 15 KT. SEAS 3 FT.
.MON...S WIND 15 KT. SEAS 3 FT.
.TUE...W WIND 10 KT. SEAS 3 FT.

$$

PKZ141-251130-
KACHEMAK BAY-
300 PM AKDT THU SEP 24 2015

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FRIDAY AND FRIDAY NIGHT...

.TONIGHT...VARIABLE WIND LESS THAN 10 KT. SEAS 3 FT.
.FRI...SW WIND 15 KT INCREASING TO 25 KT IN THE AFTERNOON.
SEAS 4 FT BUILDING TO 9 FT IN THE AFTERNOON.
.FRI NIGHT...W WIND 25 KT. SEAS 10 FT.
.SAT...SW WIND 10 KT. SEAS 3 FT.
.SAT NIGHT...E WIND 10 KT. SEAS 3 FT.
.SUN...E WIND 15 KT. SEAS 3 FT.
.MON...SW WIND 15 KT. SEAS 4 FT.
.TUE...W WIND 20 KT. SEAS 4 FT.

$$

NWS Anchorage, AK wrote its last area forecast discussion before this gale warning went out at Sep 24, 5:15 AM AKDT, 9 hours 45 minutes earlier.

SOUTHCENTRAL AND SOUTHWEST ALASKA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ANCHORAGE AK
515 AM AKDT THU SEP 24 2015

.ANALYSIS AND UPPER LEVELS...
A FAMILIAR UPPER LEVEL PATTERN REMAINS IN PLACE THIS MORNING WITH
AN AMPLIFIED TROUGH EXTENDING ALONG THE ALCAN BORDER AND INTO THE
EASTERN GULF OF ALASKA WHILE AN EXPANSIVE RIDGE ENCOMPASSES THE
BERING SEA AND THE WESTERN MAINLAND. THIS PATTERN CONTINUES TO
YIELD BENIGN CONDITIONS ACROSS SOUTHCENTRAL AK WITH MOSTLY CLEAR
SKIES AND DRY NORTHERLY FLOW. GAP WINDS ALONG THE NORTH GULF COAST
ARE BEGINNING TO TREND DOWNWARD AS THE SURFACE PRESSURE GRADIENT
WEAKENS IN RESPONSE TO A WEAKENING LOW OVER THE EASTERN GULF.
FARTHER WEST...A WEAK FRONT IS PUSHING INLAND AND SPREADING LIGHT
RAIN OVER THE KUSKOKWIM DELTA WITH SNOW MIXING IN OVER PORTIONS
OF THE LOWER KUSKOKWIM VALLEY. MEANWHILE...WIDESPREAD STRATUS AND
PATCHY FOG PREVAIL ACROSS MUCH OF THE BERING BENEATH THE RIDGE.

&&

.MODEL DISCUSSION...
CONTINUED TO MAINLY UTILIZE HIGHER RESOLUTION MODELS IN THE SHORT
TERM TO CAPTURE THE LAST VESTIGES OF THE GAP WINDS ALONG THE
COAST AS THEY GRADUALLY SUBSIDE THROUGH THIS AFTERNOON. AFTER
THAT...MODEL AGREEMENT BEGINS TO DETERIORATE BY FRIDAY AS AN ARCTIC
TROUGH DESCENDS FROM THE CHUKCHI SEA AND TRAVERSES THE NORTHERN
HALF OF THE MAINLAND...SIGNALING A SHIFT FROM THE CURRENT
AMPLIFIED PATTERN TO A WETTER ZONAL FLOW REGIME ACROSS THE
SOUTHERN MAINLAND. GUIDANCE IS STRUGGLING WITH HOW FAR SOUTH THE
TROUGH WILL ULTIMATELY DIG AND ALSO WITH THE TIMING AND PLACEMENT
OF VARIOUS WAVES THAT WILL FOLLOW IN ITS WAKE. THEREFORE
PREFERRED A MORE GENERALIZED APPROACH AT THIS POINT WITH A BLEND
OF THE GLOBAL SOLUTIONS (GFS/EC) FROM FRIDAY INTO THE WEEKEND.

&&

.SHORT TERM FORECAST SOUTHCENTRAL ALASKA (DAYS 1 AND 2)...
AN UPPER TROUGH DIGGING OVER THE SOUTHERN GULF HAS UNEXPECTEDLY
PULLED A LOW FROM THE EASTERN GULF NORTHWESTWARD TOWARD CAPE
SUCKLING. THE BULK OF PRECIP WILL REMAIN OFFSHORE...BUT THIS WILL
MAINTAIN TIGHT PRESSURE GRADIENTS IN THE PRINCE WILLIAM SOUND
REGION TODAY CAUSING GAP WINDS TO LINGER A LITTLE LONGER. WINDS
WILL FINALLY DIE DOWN COMPLETELY TONIGHT AS THE TROUGH IS KICKED
EASTWARD BY A STRONG JET STREAK MOVING OVER TOP OF THE BERING SEA
RIDGE.

THE UPPER JET WILL DRIVE A STORM SYSTEM EASTWARD ACROSS THE NORTHERN
TIER OF ALASKA ON FRIDAY. A SHORT-WAVE ON THE SOUTH SIDE OF THE
LOW WILL DIG JUST ENOUGH TO HELP GENERATE PRECIP OVER SOUTHCENTRAL
ON FRIDAY. STRONG SOUTH TO SOUTHWEST LOW LEVEL FLOW WILL ALSO
PROVIDE SIGNIFICANT LIFT...ESPECIALLY ALONG THE WEST SIDE OF THE
TALKEETNA MOUNTAINS AND SOUTH SIDE OF THE ALASKA RANGE. AREAS AWAY
FROM THE MOUNTAINS WILL SEE LITTLE OR NO PRECIP OUT OF THIS. WITH
SUCH STRONG WESTERLY FLOW ALOFT PRECIP WILL ALSO BE SHORT-LIVED.
THE AIR MASS CURRENTLY IN PLACE IS COLD ENOUGH TO SUPPORT
SNOW...BUT WARM AIR ADVECTION WILL BEGIN TONIGHT WITH ARRIVAL OF
THE RIDGE...AND CONTINUE FRIDAY AS PRECIP DEVELOPS. WITH A MEAN
FLOW OUT OF THE WEST THE NORTHERN INTERIOR OF SOUTHCENTRAL
(NORTHERN SUSITNA VALLEY AND NORTHERN COPPER RIVER BASIN) WILL
NOT SEE NEARLY AS MUCH WARMING AND THIS WILL BE THE MOST LIKELY
PLACE FOR SNOW ACCUMULATION. ASIDE FROM PRECIP...EXPECT STRONG LOW
LEVEL WINDS ESPECIALLY IN COOK INLET AND ACROSS THE GULF. THIS
WILL BE THE BEGINNING OF A VERY ACTIVE WEATHER PATTERN WITH VERY
PROGRESSIVE UPPER LEVEL FLOW.

&&

.SHORT TERM FORECAST SOUTHWEST ALASKA (DAYS 1 AND 2)...
THE WARM FRONT CONTINUES TO PUSH INLAND AND WEAKEN EARLY THIS
MORNING...MAINLY IN THE FORM OF RAIN OVER THE KILBUCK MOUNTAINS
AND KUSKOKWIM MOUNTAINS. THE FRONT WILL CONTINUE TO WEAKEN AS IT
MOVE EASTWARD INTO THE KUSKOKWIM VALLEY AND GREATER BRISTOL BAY.
COLD AIR IN PLACE OVER THOSE AREAS MEANS PRECIPITATION COULD START
AS SNOW THEN TURN TO RAIN. THE FRONT WEAKENS IN PLACE BY LATE
MORNING SO ANY PRECIPITATION SHOULD DISSIPATE BY AFTERNOON. THIS
BREAK IS SHORT LIVED...HOWEVER...A STRONG UPPER JET AND MOIST
AIRMASS PUSHES IN FROM THE BERING AND WILL REINVIGORATE THE
FRONT...SPREADING RAIN OVER MUCH OF THE MAINLAND. TEMPERATURES
ALONG AND OVER THE ALASKA RANGE WILL REMAIN CONDUCIVE FOR
ACCUMULATING SNOW OVER HIGHER ELEVATIONS. THE ACTIVE PATTERN
CONTINUES INTO SATURDAY AS ANOTHER DISTURBANCE BRINGS A SLUG OF
WARM AIR AND MOISTURE ONTO THE MAINLAND WITH ANOTHER HIGH
CONFIDENCE RAIN EVENT.

&&

.SHORT TERM FORECAST BERING SEA/ALEUTIANS (DAYS 1 AND 2)...
NORTHWEST FLOW OVER THE EASTERN BERING WILL KEEP SHOWERS OVER THE
ALASKA PENINSULA TODAY. THE PATTERN BEGINS TO CHANGE TODAY AS THE
BLOCKING HIGH PRESSURE BEGINS TO WEAKEN AND SLIDE TO THE EAST AS
SEVERAL DISTURBANCES MOVE INTO THE WESTERN BERING SEA. AN EXISTING
FRONT AND MOISTURE PLUME WILL SPREAD OUT FROM WEST TO EAST ACROSS
THE NORTHERN BERING TONIGHT AS A DISTURBANCE ALOFT MOVES OVER THE
WESTERN/CENTRAL ALEUTIANS. THE LATTER WILL SPREAD STEADY RAIN OVER
MUCH OF THE CENTRAL AND EASTERN BERING SEA FRIDAY AND FRIDAY
NIGHT.

&&

.LONG TERM FORECAST (DAYS 3 THROUGH 7)...
THE PATTERN MOVING INTO THE WEEKEND LOOKS TO BE ZONAL FLOW THAT
WILL LEAD TO RAIN THROUGH MUCH OF THE WEEKEND. SATURDAY EVENING
THERE IS GOOD AGREEMENT AMONGST THE ENSEMBLES AND THE EC WITH A
SHORTWAVE MOVING THROUGH THE SOUTHERN BERING. THE SURFACE LOW
ATTACHED TO THIS FEATURE LOOKS TO BRING HEAVIER RAIN TO MAINLAND
ALASKA STARTING IN THE SOUTHWEST AND EXPANDING TO THE SOUTHCENTRAL
SUNDAY. THE GFS HAS THIS FEATURE AS WELL BUT IT REMAINED SLOWERTHAN
THE OTHER GUIDANCE. HOWEVER...THE 12Z GFS IS CATCHING UP TO THE
OTHERS GIVING MORE CONFIDENCE IN RAIN OVER THE WEEKEND.

THE PATTERN AFTER THE FRONT MOVES IN LEADS TO INCONSISTENCIES
AMONGST THE MODELS. ALL HAVE AN ARCTIC TROUGH EXTENDING DOWN
THROUGH THE BERING THAT MOVES IN OVER MAINLAND ALASKA EARLY NEXT
WEEK BRINGING IN A FAIR AMOUNT OF COLD AIR DOWN WITH IT. THE
ENSEMBLES AND THE EC HAVE THE PREVIOUS SURFACE LOW TRACKING NORTH
AT THIS SAME TIME KEEPING MUCH OF THE SOUTHCENTRAL RELATIVELY DRY
BUT ALSO BRINGING IN COLDER TEMPERATURES THROUGHOUT THE
SOUTHCENTRAL. THE GFS PUSHES THE TROUGH FURTHER SOUTH FORMING A
NEW LOW OVER THE SOUTHCENTRAL AND GIVING A POSSIBILITY OF SNOW
FOR TUESDAY AFTER THE RAIN MOVES THROUGH. AT THIS POINT THERE IS
HIGH UNCERTAINTY AND THE GENERAL CONSENSUS OF THE MODELS IS THE
WARMER TRACK KEEPING THINGS ALL RAIN FOR THE SOUTHCENTRAL.

&&

.AFC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
PUBLIC...NONE.
MARINE...GALE 130 139.
FIRE WEATHER...NONE.

&&

SYNOPSIS AND MODEL DISCUSSION...CB
SOUTHCENTRAL ALASKA...SB
SOUTHWEST ALASKA/BERING SEA/ALEUTIANS...MTL
LONG TERM...DK

Gale Warnings in Alaska, 2015Every gale warning in 2015

The product and its follow-ups from the Iowa Environmental Mesonet's archive of National Weather Service and Storm Prediction Center text.