Gale Warning 4, NWS Anchorage, AK

428 
FZAK62 PAFC 030020
OFFALU

OFFSHORE WATERS FORECAST
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ANCHORAGE AK
320 PM AKST FRI JAN 2 2015

OFFSHORE WATERS FORECAST FOR THE BERING SEA

WIND FORECASTS REFLECT THE PREDOMINANT SPEED AND DIRECTION
EXPECTED. SEA FORECASTS REPRESENT AN AVERAGE OF THE HIGHEST
ONE-THIRD OF THE COMBINED WIND WAVE AND SWELL HEIGHT.

PKZ499-031415-
320 PM AKST FRI JAN 2 2015
.SYNOPSIS FOR CENTRAL BERING SEA...A 961 MB LOW AT 57N 165E WILL
MOVE TO 60N 162E FRI NIGHT. THE ASSOCIATED FRONT FROM THE LOW IN
AN ARC THROUGH 50N 180 AND SOUTH WILL MOVE NORTH AND EAST AS IT
DISSIPATES ACROSS THE NORTHERN BERING SEA SAT NIGHT. A DEVELOPING
NORTH PACIFIC LOW WILL BE 966 MB AT 51N 161E SUN AFTERNOON.

$$

PKZ411-031415-
BERING SEA OFFSHORE WEST OF 180 AND EAST OF THE INTERNATIONAL
DATELINE-
320 PM AKST FRI JAN 2 2015

...GALE WARNING TONIGHT...

.TONIGHT...SW WIND 20 TO 35 KT. SEAS 17 TO 21 FT. RAIN.
.SAT...SW WIND 20 TO 30 KT. SEAS 15 TO 21 FT. RAIN AND SNOW.
.SAT NIGHT...SE WIND 15 TO 30 KT. SEAS 12 TO 19 FT. SNOW SHOWERS.
.SUN...E WIND 20 TO 35 KT. SEAS 11 TO 16 FT.
.SUN NIGHT...E WIND 20 TO 30 KT. SEAS 12 TO 19 FT.
.MON THROUGH WED...E WIND 20 TO 35 KT. SEAS 8 TO 16 FT.

$$

PKZ412-031415-
BERING SEA OFFSHORE 171W TO 180 AND NORTH OF 56N-
320 PM AKST FRI JAN 2 2015

...STORM WARNING TONIGHT...

.TONIGHT...S WIND INCREASING TO 35 TO 50 KT. SEAS 15 TO 25 FT.
RAIN.
.SAT...S WIND 25 TO 40 KT DIMINISHING TO 10 TO 25 KT IN THE
AFTERNOON. SEAS 14 TO 22 FT. RAIN.
.SAT NIGHT...S WIND UP TO 20 KT BECOMING E AFTER MIDNIGHT. SEAS
11 TO 16 FT.
.SUN...E WIND 15 TO 30 KT. SEAS 10 TO 13 FT.
.SUN NIGHT...E WIND 25 TO 35 KT. SEAS 9 TO 14 FT.
.MON THROUGH WED...NE WIND 20 TO 35 KT. SEAS 10 TO 18 FT.

$$

PKZ413-031415-
BERING SEA OFFSHORE 171W TO 180 AND SOUTH OF 56N-
320 PM AKST FRI JAN 2 2015

...STORM WARNING TONIGHT...

.TONIGHT...S WIND INCREASING TO 35 TO 50 KT. SEAS BUILDING TO 15
TO 23 FT. RAIN AND SNOW.
.SAT...SW WIND 15 TO 30 KT DIMINISHING TO UP TO 20 KT IN THE
AFTERNOON. SEAS 10 TO 18 FT. RAIN.
.SAT NIGHT...E WIND UP TO 20 KT INCREASING TO 15 TO 25 KT AFTER
MIDNIGHT. SEAS 9 TO 14 FT.
.SUN...E WIND 20 TO 30 KT. SEAS 10 FT.
.SUN NIGHT...E WIND 25 TO 35 KT. SEAS 10 TO 15 FT.
.MON THROUGH WED...NE WIND 20 TO 35 KT. SEAS 8 TO 16 FT.

$$

PKZ414-031415-
BERING SEA OFFSHORE EAST OF 171W-
320 PM AKST FRI JAN 2 2015

...GALE WARNING TONIGHT...

.TONIGHT...SE WIND INCREASING TO 20 TO 35 KT. SEAS 6 TO 11 FT.
.SAT...SE WIND 15 TO 30 KT. SEAS 7 TO 12 FT.
.SAT NIGHT...SE WIND 10 TO 20 KT. SEAS 6 TO 11 FT.
.SUN...E WIND 15 TO 25 KT. SEAS 8 FT.
.SUN NIGHT...E WIND 15 TO 30 KT. SEAS 6 TO 11 FT.
.MON THROUGH WED...NE WIND 20 TO 35 KT. SEAS 6 TO 11 FT.

$$

558 
FZAK62 PAFC 031205
OFFALU

OFFSHORE WATERS FORECAST
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ANCHORAGE AK
305 AM AKST SAT JAN 3 2015

OFFSHORE WATERS FORECAST FOR THE BERING SEA

WIND FORECASTS REFLECT THE PREDOMINANT SPEED AND DIRECTION
EXPECTED. SEA FORECASTS REPRESENT AN AVERAGE OF THE HIGHEST
ONE-THIRD OF THE COMBINED WIND WAVE AND SWELL HEIGHT.

PKZ499-040230-
305 AM AKST SAT JAN 3 2015
.SYNOPSIS FOR CENTRAL BERING SEA...
A WEATHER FRONT OVER THE CENTRAL BERING THROUGH CENTRAL ALEUTIANS
MOVES NORTH-NORTHEAST INTO THE NORTHERN AND EASTERN BERING WHILE
WEAKENING THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT...THEN DISSIPATES SUNDAY. A
WEATHER FRONT ASSOCIATED WITH A WEAKENING 966 MB LOW NEAR 50N 164E
SUNDAY MOVES NORTH TO THE WESTERN ALEUTIANS SUNDAY NIGHT.

$$

PKZ411-040230-
BERING SEA OFFSHORE WEST OF 180 AND EAST OF THE INTERNATIONAL
DATELINE-
305 AM AKST SAT JAN 3 2015

...GALE WARNING SUNDAY...

.TODAY...SW WIND 20 TO 30 KT. SEAS 16 TO 21 FT. RAIN AND SNOW.
.TONIGHT...SE WIND 15 TO 30 KT. SEAS 12 TO 19 FT. RAIN.
.SUN...E WIND 20 TO 35 KT. SEAS 11 TO 16 FT. RAIN AND SNOW.
.SUN NIGHT...E WIND 30 KT. SEAS 11 TO 18 FT.
.MON THROUGH WED...E WIND 15 TO 30 KT. SEAS 9 TO 14 FT.

$$

PKZ412-040230-
BERING SEA OFFSHORE 171W TO 180 AND NORTH OF 56N-
305 AM AKST SAT JAN 3 2015

...GALE WARNING TODAY...

.TODAY...S WIND 25 TO 40 KT DIMINISHING TO 10 TO 25 KT IN THE
AFTERNOON. SEAS 14 TO 22 FT. RAIN.
.TONIGHT...S WIND 10 TO 20 KT. SEAS 11 TO 16 FT. RAIN.
.SUN...E WIND 10 TO 25 KT INCREASING TO 20 TO 30 KT IN THE
AFTERNOON. SEAS 12 FT.
.SUN NIGHT...E WIND 30 KT. SEAS 9 TO 12 FT.
.MON THROUGH WED...NE WIND 15 TO 30 KT. SEAS 9 TO 15 FT.

$$

PKZ413-040230-
BERING SEA OFFSHORE 171W TO 180 AND SOUTH OF 56N-
305 AM AKST SAT JAN 3 2015

.TODAY...SW WIND 15 TO 30 KT DIMINISHING TO 10 TO 20 KT IN THE
AFTERNOON. SEAS 10 TO 18 FT. RAIN.
.TONIGHT...E WIND UP TO 15 KT INCREASING TO 10 TO 25 KT AFTER
MIDNIGHT. SEAS 9 TO 14 FT.
.SUN...E WIND 15 TO 30 KT. SEAS 10 FT. RAIN.
.SUN NIGHT...E WIND 30 KT. SEAS 9 TO 14 FT.
.MON THROUGH WED...NE WIND 15 TO 30 KT. SEAS 8 TO 13 FT.

$$

PKZ414-040230-
BERING SEA OFFSHORE EAST OF 171W-
305 AM AKST SAT JAN 3 2015

.TODAY...SE WIND 20 TO 30 KT. SEAS 7 TO 12 FT.
.TONIGHT...SE WIND 10 TO 20 KT. SEAS 6 TO 11 FT.
.SUN...E WIND 10 TO 25 KT. SEAS 6 TO 9 FT.
.SUN NIGHT...E WIND 20 TO 30 KT. SEAS 6 TO 9 FT.
.MON THROUGH WED...NE WIND 20 TO 35 KT. SEAS 6 TO 11 FT.

$$

330 
FZAK62 PAFC 032349
OFFALU

OFFSHORE WATERS FORECAST
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ANCHORAGE AK
249 PM AKST SAT JAN 3 2015

OFFSHORE WATERS FORECAST FOR THE BERING SEA

WIND FORECASTS REFLECT THE PREDOMINANT SPEED AND DIRECTION
EXPECTED. SEA FORECASTS REPRESENT AN AVERAGE OF THE HIGHEST
ONE-THIRD OF THE COMBINED WIND WAVE AND SWELL HEIGHT.

PKZ499-041400-
249 PM AKST SAT JAN 3 2015
.SYNOPSIS FOR CENTRAL BERING SEA...
A WEATHER FRONT OVER THE EASTERN BERING SEA DISSIPATES SUNDAY. A
953 MB LOW NEAR 45N 165E MOVES NORTHWEST TOWARD THE KAMCHATKA
PENINSULA AND WEAKENS MONDAY. THE ASSOCIATED WEATHER FRONT
WEAKENS OVER THE WESTERN ALEUTIANS MONDAY.

$$

PKZ411-041400-
BERING SEA OFFSHORE WEST OF 180 AND EAST OF THE INTERNATIONAL
DATELINE-
249 PM AKST SAT JAN 3 2015

...GALE WARNING SUNDAY...

.TONIGHT...S WIND 15 TO 30 KT. SEAS 12 TO 19 FT.
.SUN...E WIND 20 TO 35 KT. SEAS 11 TO 17 FT. RAIN.
.SUN NIGHT...E WIND 30 KT. SEAS 11 TO 18 FT. RAIN AND SNOW.
.MON...SE WIND 15 TO 30 KT. SEAS 13 TO 17 FT.
.MON NIGHT...SE WIND 15 TO 30 KT. SEAS 10 TO 14 FT.
.TUE THROUGH THU...NE WIND 15 TO 25 KT. SEAS 9 TO 12 FT.

$$

PKZ412-041400-
BERING SEA OFFSHORE 171W TO 180 AND NORTH OF 56N-
249 PM AKST SAT JAN 3 2015

.TONIGHT...S WIND 10 TO 20 KT. SEAS 11 TO 17 FT.
.SUN...E WIND 10 TO 25 KT INCREASING TO 20 TO 30 KT IN THE
AFTERNOON. SEAS 12 FT.
.SUN NIGHT...E WIND 30 KT. SEAS 9 TO 12 FT.
.MON...E WIND 30 KT. SEAS 9 TO 15 FT.
.MON NIGHT...E WIND 20 TO 30 KT. SEAS 11 TO 14 FT.
.TUE THROUGH THU...NE WIND 20 TO 30 KT. SEAS 8 TO 13 FT.

$$

PKZ413-041400-
BERING SEA OFFSHORE 171W TO 180 AND SOUTH OF 56N-
249 PM AKST SAT JAN 3 2015

.TONIGHT...E WIND UP TO 15 KT INCREASING TO 10 TO 25 KT AFTER
MIDNIGHT. SEAS 9 TO 14 FT.
.SUN...E WIND 20 TO 30 KT. SEAS 9 TO 12 FT.
.SUN NIGHT...E WIND 30 KT. SEAS 10 TO 14 FT.
.MON...E WIND 20 TO 30 KT. SEAS 10 TO 16 FT.
.MON NIGHT...E WIND 10 TO 25 KT. SEAS 9 TO 14 FT.
.TUE THROUGH THU...N WIND 15 TO 30 KT. SEAS 8 TO 11 FT.

$$

PKZ414-041400-
BERING SEA OFFSHORE EAST OF 171W-
249 PM AKST SAT JAN 3 2015

.TONIGHT...SE WIND 10 TO 20 KT. SEAS 7 TO 11 FT. PATCHY FOG.
.SUN...E WIND 10 TO 25 KT. SEAS 7 TO 10 FT. PATCHY FOG.
.SUN NIGHT...E WIND 20 TO 30 KT. SEAS 6 TO 10 FT.
.MON...NE WIND 20 TO 30 KT. SEAS 7 TO 10 FT.
.MON NIGHT...NE WIND 20 TO 30 KT. SEAS 10 FT.
.TUE THROUGH THU...NE WIND 20 TO 35 KT. SEAS 6 TO 11 FT.

$$

963 
FZAK62 PAFC 041239
OFFALU

OFFSHORE WATERS FORECAST
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ANCHORAGE AK
339 AM AKST SUN JAN 4 2015

OFFSHORE WATERS FORECAST FOR THE BERING SEA

WIND FORECASTS REFLECT THE PREDOMINANT SPEED AND DIRECTION
EXPECTED. SEA FORECASTS REPRESENT AN AVERAGE OF THE HIGHEST
ONE-THIRD OF THE COMBINED WIND WAVE AND SWELL HEIGHT.

PKZ499-050200-
339 AM AKST SUN JAN 4 2015
.SYNOPSIS FOR CENTRAL BERING SEA...

A WEATHER FRONT OVER THE NORTHEASTERN BERING SEA DISSIPATES
SUNDAY. A WEAKENING 956 MB LOW NEAR 48N 167E MOVES TOWARD THE
KAMCHATKA PENINSULA THROUGH MONDAY. THE ASSOCIATED WEATHER FRONT
MOVES ACROSS THE WESTERN ALEUTIANS SUN NIGHT WHILE WEAKENING...THEN
MOVES INTO THE SOUTHWESTERN BERING THROUGH MON NIGHT.

$$

PKZ411-050200-
BERING SEA OFFSHORE WEST OF 180 AND EAST OF THE INTERNATIONAL
DATELINE-
339 AM AKST SUN JAN 4 2015

...GALE WARNING TODAY...

.TODAY...E WIND 20 TO 35 KT. SEAS 11 TO 17 FT. RAIN.
.TONIGHT...E WIND 30 KT. SEAS 11 TO 18 FT. RAIN.
.MON...E WIND 20 TO 30 KT. SEAS 12 TO 17 FT.
.MON NIGHT...SE WIND 15 TO 30 KT. SEAS 11 TO 14 FT.
.TUE...E WIND 15 TO 30 KT. SEAS 9 TO 13 FT.
.WED THROUGH THU...NE WIND 10 TO 25 KT. SEAS 7 TO 10 FT.

$$

PKZ412-050200-
BERING SEA OFFSHORE 171W TO 180 AND NORTH OF 56N-
339 AM AKST SUN JAN 4 2015

.TODAY...E WIND 10 TO 25 KT INCREASING TO 20 TO 30 KT IN THE
AFTERNOON. SEAS 8 TO 14 FT.
.TONIGHT AND MON...E WIND 30 KT. SEAS 9 TO 14 FT.
.MON NIGHT...E WIND 20 TO 30 KT. SEAS 11 TO 14 FT.
.TUE THROUGH THU...NE WIND 15 TO 30 KT. SEAS 7 TO 11 FT.

$$

PKZ413-050200-
BERING SEA OFFSHORE 171W TO 180 AND SOUTH OF 56N-
339 AM AKST SUN JAN 4 2015

.TODAY...E WIND 15 TO 30 KT BECOMING 25 KT IN THE AFTERNOON. SEAS
9 TO 12 FT.
.TONIGHT...E WIND 30 KT. SEAS 10 TO 14 FT. RAIN.
.MON...E WIND 20 TO 30 KT. SEAS 10 TO 16 FT.
.MON NIGHT...E WIND 10 TO 25 KT. SEAS 8 TO 13 FT.
.TUE THROUGH THU...N WIND 10 TO 25 KT. SEAS 6 TO 10 FT.

$$

PKZ414-050200-
BERING SEA OFFSHORE EAST OF 171W-
339 AM AKST SUN JAN 4 2015

.TODAY...E WIND 10 TO 25 KT. SEAS 6 TO 10 FT. PATCHY FOG.
.TONIGHT...E WIND 25 KT. SEAS 6 TO 10 FT.
.MON...NE WIND 30 KT. SEAS 9 FT.
.MON NIGHT...NE WIND 20 TO 30 KT. SEAS 9 TO 12 FT.
.TUE THROUGH THU...NE WIND 15 TO 30 KT. SEAS 6 TO 11 FT.

$$

629 
FZAK62 PAFC 050013
OFFALU

OFFSHORE WATERS FORECAST
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ANCHORAGE AK
313 PM AKST SUN JAN 4 2015

OFFSHORE WATERS FORECAST FOR THE BERING SEA

WIND FORECASTS REFLECT THE PREDOMINANT SPEED AND DIRECTION
EXPECTED. SEA FORECASTS REPRESENT AN AVERAGE OF THE HIGHEST
ONE-THIRD OF THE COMBINED WIND WAVE AND SWELL HEIGHT.

PKZ499-051430-
313 PM AKST SUN JAN 4 2015
.SYNOPSIS FOR CENTRAL BERING SEA...
A 965 MB LOW NEAR 50N 164E WILL MOVE TOWARD THE KAMCHATKA
PENINSULA AND WEAKEN THROUGH MONDAY. THE ASSOCIATED WEATHER FRONT
WILL MOVE ACROSS THE WESTERN ALEUTIANS TONIGHT WHILE
WEAKENING...THEN MOVE INTO THE SOUTHWESTERN BERING THROUGH MON
NIGHT.

$$

PKZ411-051430-
BERING SEA OFFSHORE WEST OF 180 AND EAST OF THE INTERNATIONAL
DATELINE-
313 PM AKST SUN JAN 4 2015

...GALE WARNING TONIGHT...

.TONIGHT...E WIND 35 KT DIMINISHING TO 30 KT AFTER MIDNIGHT. 
SEAS 11 TO 18 FT. RAIN AND SNOW.
.MON...SE WIND 20 TO 30 KT. SEAS 13 TO 16 FT.
.MON NIGHT...SE WIND 15 TO 30 KT. SEAS 11 TO 14 FT.
.TUE...SE WIND 10 TO 25 KT. SEAS 9 TO 13 FT.
.TUE NIGHT...E WIND 15 TO 30 KT. SEAS 9 TO 13 FT.
.WED THROUGH FRI...NE WIND 15 TO 30 KT. SEAS 9 TO 14 FT.

$$

PKZ412-051430-
BERING SEA OFFSHORE 171W TO 180 AND NORTH OF 56N-
313 PM AKST SUN JAN 4 2015

.TONIGHT...E WIND 30 KT. SEAS 9 TO 12 FT.
.MON...E WIND 30 KT. SEAS 9 TO 15 FT.
.MON NIGHT...E WIND 20 TO 30 KT. SEAS 12 FT.
.TUE...E WIND 20 TO 30 KT. SEAS 11 FT.
.TUE NIGHT...NE WIND 20 TO 30 KT. SEAS 9 TO 12 FT.
.WED THROUGH FRI...NE WIND 15 TO 30 KT. SEAS 7 TO 12 FT.

$$

PKZ413-051430-
BERING SEA OFFSHORE 171W TO 180 AND SOUTH OF 56N-
313 PM AKST SUN JAN 4 2015

.TONIGHT...E WIND 30 KT. SEAS 10 TO 14 FT. RAIN.
.MON...E WIND 20 TO 30 KT. SEAS 10 TO 15 FT.
.MON NIGHT...E WIND 15 TO 25 KT. SEAS 9 TO 13 FT.
.TUE...NE WIND 15 TO 25 KT. SEAS 8 TO 11 FT.
.TUE NIGHT...NE WIND 15 TO 25 KT. SEAS 10 FT.
.WED THROUGH FRI...NE WIND 10 TO 25 KT. SEAS 5 TO 9 FT.

$$

PKZ414-051430-
BERING SEA OFFSHORE EAST OF 171W-
313 PM AKST SUN JAN 4 2015

.TONIGHT...E WIND 20 TO 30 KT. SEAS 6 TO 9 FT. PATCHY FOG.
.MON...NE WIND 30 KT. SEAS 9 FT. PATCHY FOG.
.MON NIGHT...NE WIND 30 KT. SEAS 12 FT.
.TUE...NE WIND 30 KT. SEAS 9 TO 12 FT.
.TUE NIGHT...NE WIND 20 TO 30 KT. SEAS 6 TO 11 FT.
.WED...NE WIND 10 TO 25 KT. SEAS 5 TO 8 FT.
.THU THROUGH FRI...SE WIND UP TO 20 KT. SEAS 4 TO 9 FT.

$$

171 
FZAK62 PAFC 051249
OFFALU

OFFSHORE WATERS FORECAST
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ANCHORAGE AK
349 AM AKST MON JAN 5 2015

OFFSHORE WATERS FORECAST FOR THE BERING SEA

WIND FORECASTS REFLECT THE PREDOMINANT SPEED AND DIRECTION
EXPECTED. SEA FORECASTS REPRESENT AN AVERAGE OF THE HIGHEST
ONE-THIRD OF THE COMBINED WIND WAVE AND SWELL HEIGHT.

PKZ499-060230-
349 AM AKST MON JAN 5 2015
.SYNOPSIS FOR CENTRAL BERING SEA...

A 976 MB LOW NEAR 51N 163E MOVES TOWARD THE KAMCHATKA PENINSULA
AND WEAKENS THROUGH TONIGHT. A 999 MB NORTH PACIFIC LOW MOVES TO
47N 174E TONIGHT THEN TO 55N 172E AT 1009 MB TUE EVENING.

$$

PKZ411-060230-
BERING SEA OFFSHORE WEST OF 180 AND EAST OF THE INTERNATIONAL
DATELINE-
349 AM AKST MON JAN 5 2015

.TODAY...SE WIND 20 TO 30 KT. SEAS 13 TO 16 FT.
.TONIGHT...SE WIND 15 TO 30 KT. SEAS 14 FT.
.TUE...E WIND 15 TO 30 KT. SEAS 10 TO 13 FT.
.TUE NIGHT...E WIND 15 TO 30 KT. SEAS 9 TO 14 FT.
.WED THROUGH FRI...NE WIND 15 TO 30 KT. SEAS 8 TO 13 FT.

$$

PKZ412-060230-
BERING SEA OFFSHORE 171W TO 180 AND NORTH OF 56N-
349 AM AKST MON JAN 5 2015

.TODAY...E WIND 30 KT. SEAS 9 TO 15 FT.
.TONIGHT...E WIND 30 KT. SEAS 12 FT.
.TUE...NE WIND 20 TO 30 KT. SEAS 12 FT.
.TUE NIGHT...NE WIND 25 KT. SEAS 10 FT.
.WED THROUGH FRI...NE WIND 15 TO 30 KT. SEAS 7 TO 12 FT.

$$

PKZ413-060230-
BERING SEA OFFSHORE 171W TO 180 AND SOUTH OF 56N-
349 AM AKST MON JAN 5 2015

.TODAY...E WIND 20 TO 30 KT. SEAS 9 TO 15 FT.
.TONIGHT...E WIND 15 TO 25 KT. SEAS 9 TO 13 FT.
.TUE...NE WIND 15 TO 25 KT. SEAS 8 TO 11 FT.
.TUE NIGHT...NE WIND 20 KT. SEAS 10 FT.
.WED THROUGH FRI...NE WIND 10 TO 25 KT. SEAS 5 TO 9 FT.

$$

PKZ414-060230-
BERING SEA OFFSHORE EAST OF 171W-
349 AM AKST MON JAN 5 2015

.TODAY...NE WIND 30 KT. SEAS 9 FT. PATCHY FOG.
.TONIGHT...NE WIND 30 KT. SEAS 11 FT. FREEZING SPRAY.
.TUE...NE WIND 20 TO 30 KT. SEAS 9 TO 12 FT. FREEZING SPRAY.
.TUE NIGHT...NE WIND 15 TO 30 KT. SEAS 6 TO 11 FT.
.WED...NE WIND UP TO 20 KT. SEAS 4 TO 8 FT.
.THU THROUGH FRI...SE WIND UP TO 20 KT. SEAS 4 TO 9 FT.

$$

SOUTHCENTRAL AND SOUTHWEST ALASKA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ANCHORAGE AK
319 PM AKST THU JAN 1 2015

.ANALYSIS AND UPPER LEVELS...
WATER VAPOR IMAGERY THIS MORNING SHOWS THE UPPER LEVEL PATTERN
IN TRANSITION. A GALE FORCE LOW OVER THE EASTERN GULF REALLY
SQUASHED DOWN THE EAST PACIFIC RIDGE WHICH HAD BEEN FIRMLY IN
PLACE OVER THE GULF AND SOUTHCENTRAL A COUPLE DAYS AGO. THIS IS
OPENING THE WAY (TEMPORARILY) FOR MORE PROGRESSIVE FLOW FROM THE
ALEUTIANS TO THE GULF. THE REMNANTS OF THE BERING TROUGH FROM THE
PAST WEEK HAVE LARGELY STALLED OVER MAINLAND ALASKA WITH GENERALLY
WEAK AND FAIRLY CHAOTIC FLOW. MEANWHILE A CUT-OFF HIGH IS
STRENGTHENING TO THE NORTH (OVER THE BEAUFORT AND CHUKCHI SEAS).
SOME OF THE ENERGY TO THE SOUTH IS BEING PULLED NORTHWARD AROUND
THE WEST SIDE OF THIS HIGH WHILE SOME IS BEING PULLED EASTWARD
WITH THE GULF STORM SYSTEM. WITH GENERALLY LIGHT SURFACE FLOW AND
AREAS OF WEAK LIFT ALOFT...AREAS OF FOG AND STRATUS ALONG WITH A
FEW SHOWERS HAVE DEVELOPED OVER PORTIONS OF SOUTHWEST AND
SOUTHCENTRAL ALASKA. PRESSURE GRADIENTS ARE ON THE RISE ACROSS
SOUTHCENTRAL AS THE GULF LOW MOVES CLOSER CAUSING GAP WINDS TO
KICK UP ALONG PRINCE WILLIAM SOUND AND THE NORTHERN GULF COAST.
LOW LEVEL FLOW INLAND WILL BEGIN TO BECOME MORE UNIFORMLY
NORTHERLY AND STRENGTHEN AS WE HEAD THROUGH THIS AFTERNOON WHICH
SHOULD HELP BREAK UP THE EXISTING FOG.

LOOKING UPSTREAM...A COUPLE SHORT-WAVE TROUGHS OVER THE CENTRAL
BERING SEA ARE BEGINNING TO HEAD IN DIFFERENT DIRECTIONS WITH ONE
CONTINUING EASTWARD ALONG THE ALEUTIANS AND THE OTHER LIFTING
NORTHWARD UP THE WEST SIDE OF THE CUT-OFF HIGH. THE RESULT IS
VERY EVIDENT AT THE SURFACE WITH A VERY ELONGATED AND WEAKENING
FRONT PROGRESSING SLOWLY NORTH AND EAST ACROSS THE EASTERN BERING
SEA.

A VERY PERSISTENT DEEP UPPER TROUGH/CUT-OFF LOW PERSISTS OVER THE
SEA OF OKHOTSK WITH ANOTHER STORM FORCE LOW TRACKING TOWARD THE
WESTERN BERING AND ALEUTIANS.

&&

.MODEL DISCUSSION...
NUMERICAL GUIDANCE REMAINS IN EXCELLENT AGREEMENT WITH LARGE SCALE
FEATURES OVER THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS. THERE ARE SOME MINOR
DIFFERENCES WITH SPLITTING ENERGY OVER THE EASTERN BERING/SOUTHWEST
COAST. BASED ON SATELLITE IMAGERY THE MORE SOUTHERN WAVE IS MUCH
MORE IMPRESSIVE...SO WILL UP POPS TO CATEGORICAL ALONG THE ALASKA
PENINSULA TONIGHT. EVEN THOUGH THE NORTHERN TROUGH IS ELONGATED
AND UNIMPRESSIVE...STILL THINK PRECIP WILL SURVIVE TO THE KUSKOKWIM
DELTA COAST...WITH ALL MODELS SHOWING SOME LIGHT QPF AMOUNTS. THUS...
WILL ALSO UP POPS IN THAT AREA. WHILE THE NORTHERN WAVE EVENTUALLY
GETS OVERTAKEN BY A BUILDING UPSTREAM RIDGE (OUT AHEAD OF THE STRONG
LOW MOVING INTO THE WESTERN BERING SEA) THE SOUTHERN TROUGH WILL
SURVIVE INTO THE GULF AND INTERACT WITH THE REMAINING TROUGH AXIS
SITTING OVER SOUTHCENTRAL. MODELS INDICATE A BRIEF PERIOD OF LIGHT
PRECIP OVER THE PRINCE WILLIAM SOUND AREA FRIDAY NIGHT. WITH
CONTINUED LOW LEVEL OFFSHORE FLOW MAINTAINING DRY LOW LEVELS...
THE CHALLENGE IS IN DETERMINING WHETHER THERE IS ENOUGH PRECIP
FALLING THROUGH THE LAYER TO REACH THE GROUND. THE INTERACTION IN
THE UPPER LEVELS IS QUITE COMPLEX SO ITS HARD TO SAY WHICH AREA
HAS THE BEST SHOT OF PRECIP. WILL MAINTAIN SOME POPS IN THERE...
BUT CONFIDENCE IS PRETTY LOW. ASIDE FROM THIS CHALLENGE...FORECAST
CONFIDENCE IS HIGH ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA.

&&

.SHORT TERM FORECAST SOUTHCENTRAL ALASKA (DAYS 1 AND 2)...
BASED ON TIMING OF PEAK PRESSURE GRADIENTS AND WEAK LOW LEVEL COLD
AIR ADVECTION GAP WINDS ACROSS PRINCE WILLIAM SOUND AND THE NORTH
GULF COAST WILL PEAK LATE THIS AFTERNOON THROUGH THIS EVENING. THERE
IS CONTINUED GRADUAL COOLING THROUGH FRIDAY MORNING...ESPECIALLY
FROM THE NORTH AND EAST AS ARCTIC AIR DROPS DOWN THE EAST SIDE OF
THE CUT-OFF HIGH ADVECTING SOUTHWARD ACROSS THE YUKON THEN WESTWARD
INTO ALASKA. SO EVEN AS PRESSURE GRADIENTS SLACKEN EXPECT PURE GAP
WINDS TO CONTINUE...THOUGH NOT NEARLY AS STRONG AND WIDESPREAD AS
THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING. MEANWHILE...AN SHORT-WAVE RIDGE MOVING
IN BEHIND THE GULF LOW WILL INCREASE UPPER LEVEL FLOW AND SUBSIDENCE
OVER THE KENAI PENINSULA FRIDAY MORNING WHICH WILL ALSO CAUSE GAP
WINDS TO LINGER A LITTLE LONGER NEAR SEWARD AND WHITTIER AS WELL.

ELSEWHERE ACROSS SOUTHCENTRAL THERE MAY BE A BRIEF PERIOD OF GUSTY
WINDS AS COLDER AIR FILTERS IN...PRIMARILY THROUGH MOUNTAIN GAPS
AND AT HIGHER ELEVATIONS. THE VALLEYS SHOULD DEVELOP A STRONG
ENOUGH SURFACE INVERSION TO KEEP WINDS FROM MIXING DOWN.

THERE IS THE POSSIBILITY OF A QUICK SHOT OF PRECIP FRIDAY NIGHT
INTO SATURDAY ALONG THE GULF COAST/KODIAK ISLAND AS THE TROUGH
FROM THE BERING CROSSES THE GULF. OTHERWISE...THE CUT-OFF UPPER
LEVEL HIGH WILL SINK SOUTHWARD ACROSS MAINLAND ALASKA WITH DRY
AND SEASONABLY COLD TEMPERATURES SETTLING IN OVER SOUTHCENTRAL
ALASKA AS WE HEAD THROUGH THE WEEKEND.

&&

.SHORT TERM FORECAST SOUTHWEST ALASKA (DAYS 1 AND 2)...
AS DISCUSSED IN THE MODEL DISCUSSION ABOVE THE KUSKOKWIM DELTA
AND SOUTHERN ALASKA PENINSULA WILL SEE A QUICK SHOT OF PRECIP
WITH THE APPROACHING UPPER LEVEL WAVES TONIGHT. A BUILDING RIDGE
OVER THE BERING WILL CAUSE PRECIP TO RAPIDLY DIMINISH FRIDAY
MORNING. THE REGION WILL THEN SETTLE INTO A DRY AND COOL REGIME...
WITH TEMPERATURES FALLING TO NEAR SEASONABLE NORMALS FOR THIS
TIME OF YEAR.

&&

.SHORT TERM FORECAST BERING SEA/ALEUTIANS (DAYS 1 AND 2)...
THE DEEP TROUGH OVER THE SEA OF OKHOTSK COMBINED WITH A STRONG
SUBTROPICAL JET TO THE SOUTH WILL MAINTAIN AN ACTIVE STORM TRACK
OVER THE WESTERN BERING SEA. THE ONE CHANGE WILL BE THE DEVELOPMENT
OF A STRONG BLOCKING HIGH DOWNSTREAM AS THE BUILDING RIDGE AHEAD
OF THE CURRENT STORM SYSTEM STALLS OVER THE EASTERN BERING SEA AND
CONNECTS UP WITH THE CUT-OFF HIGH OVER NORTHERN ALASKA. THIS WILL
CAUSE THE NEXT FRONTAL SYSTEM TO STALL OVER THE CENTRAL BERING
LATE FRIDAY AND RAPIDLY WEAKEN SATURDAY AS UPPER LEVEL FORCING
EXITS TO THE NORTH AND THE SURFACE FRONT IS ELONGATES NORTH-SOUTH
FROM THE CHUKCHI SEA SOUTHWARD TO THE NORTH PACIFIC

&&

.LONG TERM FORECAST (DAYS 3 THROUGH 7)...
HIGH PRESSURE THAT HAS MOVED IN OVER MAINLAND ALASKA WILL DRY OUT
THE AREA KEEPING PRECIPITATION ALONG THE GULF COAST AND IN THE
CENTRAL AND WESTERN ALEUTIANS. THE HIGH WILL THEN SLOWLY TRACK
WEST AND MAKE IT OVER NORTHEASTERN RUSSIA BY TUESDAY. THIS WILL
LEAVE NORTHERLY FLOW OVER THE STATE THAT WILL CONTINUE TO KEEP
PRECIPITATION OUT OF MUCH OF MAINLAND ALASKA INTO WEDNESDAY.
FINALLY A NEW SYSTEM WILL MOVE INTO THE GULF FROM THE SOUTH AND
PUSH PRECIPITATION BACK INTO THE SOUTHCENTRAL AND SOUTHWESTERN
PARTS OF THE STATE.

&&

.AFC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
PUBLIC...NONE.
MARINE...STORM WARNING 177 178.
 GALE WARNING 120 121 127 128 129 130 131 132 173 174 175 176 185.
FIRE WEATHER...NONE.

&&

SYNOPSIS AND MODEL DISCUSSION...SB
SOUTHCENTRAL ALASKA...SB
SOUTHWEST ALASKA/BERING SEA/ALEUTIANS...SB
LONG TERM...DK