Flash Flood Warning 178, NWS Las Vegas, NV

256 
WGUS75 KVEF 170235
FFSVEF

FLASH FLOOD STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LAS VEGAS NV
735 PM MST TUE SEP 16 2014

AZC015-170244-
/O.CAN.KVEF.FF.W.0178.000000T0000Z-140917T0330Z/
/00000.0.ER.000000T0000Z.000000T0000Z.000000T0000Z.OO/
MOHAVE AZ-
735 PM MST TUE SEP 16 2014

...THE FLASH FLOOD WARNING HAS BEEN CANCELLED FOR CENTRAL MOHAVE
COUNTY...

ONLY LIGHT TO MODERATE RAIN SHOWERS REMAIN OVER STOCKTON HILL AND 
PIERCE FERRY ROADS AT THIS TIME. THE FLOODING REPORTED BY TRAINED 
SPOTTERS EARLIER HAS SUBSIDED AND THE ROADS ARE ONCE AGAIN PASSABLE. 
THE WARNING HAS THEREFORE BEEN CANCELLED. CONTINUE TO EXERCISE 
CAUTION IN THE AREA.

LAT...LON 3527 11425 3552 11442 3583 11413 3567 11382
      3530 11395

$$

WOLCOTT

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LAS VEGAS NV
113 PM PDT TUE SEP 16 2014

.SYNOPSIS...HE REMNANTS OF HURRICANE ODILE ARE FORECAST TO TRACK
EAST OF OUR AREA OVER THE NEXT 48 HOURS. A SURGE OF MOISTURE FROM
THIS STORM WILL INCREASE THE THREAT OF SCATTERED AFTERNOON
THUNDERSTORMS AND FLASH FLOODING FOR PORTIONS OF THE AREA THROUGH
THURSDAY. AN UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE WILL MOVE INTO THE AREA ON
THURSDAY EVENING TO BEGIN A DRYING TREND.
&&

.SHORT TERM...
LATEST COMPUTER MODEL GUIDANCE CONTINUES THE TREND OF TRACKING
HURRICANE ODILE (OR HER REMNANTS) FURTHER TO THE EAST. THIS PLACES
CENTRAL AND SOUTHEASTERN ARIZONA IN THE CROSS HAIRS FOR WIDESPREAD
PRECIPITATION. OUR FORECAST AREA REMAINS ON THE PERIPHERY OF THE
STORM AS IT TRANSITS THE DESERT SOUTHWEST. ANAYSIS REVEALS THAT
ODILE HAS PUSHED A GREAT DEAL OF LOW LEVEL MOISTURE OUR WAY.
DEWPOINTS TO THE SOUTH OF LAS VEGAS HAVE SOARED INTO THE MID 60S.
UPPER LEVEL CLOUD COVER FROM ODILE IS STAYING TO THE EAST AS WELL
WHICH GIVES OUR AREA THE ABILITY TO DESTABILIZE IN THE AFTERNOON AND
TAP THAT LOW LEVEL MOISTURE FOR THUNDERSTORMS.

SO WHAT DOES ALL THIS MEAN FOR OUR AREA? FOR STARTERS...THERE IS A
HIGH AMOUNT OF UNCERTAIN IN THE FORECAST SINCE WE REMAIN ON THE
PERIPHERY OF THE STORM. IT IS NOW CLEAR THAT OUR AREA WILL NOT BE IN
THE AREA WHERE WIDESPREAD PRECIPITATION WILL OCCUR. RATHER...WE NOW
EXPECT BOTH TODAY, WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY TO BE VERY ACTIVE WITH
AFTERNOON THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY...SOMEWHAT AKIN TO A STRONG MONSOON
DAY. FOR THIS REASON WE ARE KEEPING THE FLASH FLOOD WATCH FOR
WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY TO MAINTAIN AWARENESS THAT FLASH FLOODING
CONTINUES TO BE A THREAT. THURSDAY REMAINS PROBLEMATIC THOUGH. IF
CURRENT MODEL TRENDS HOLD...WE MAY END UP CANCELING THE WATCH DUE TO
DRIER AIR WORKING IN AHEAD OF THE PACIFIC TROUGH. HOWEVER, IT IS TOO
EARLY TO SAY AT THIS POINT.

.LONG TERM...
HIGH PRESSURE IS FORECAST TO STRENGTHEN OFF THE WEST COAST FRIDAY
WITH TROUGHING OVER THE SOUTHWEST. THE GFS/GEM FORECAST A CLOSED LOW
CENTERED ALONG THE CENTRAL/SOUTHERN CALIFORNIA COAST WHILE THE ECMWF
FORECASTS AN OPEN WAVE. WITH A LOW IN THIS GENERAL LOCATION,
LINGERING MOISTURE OVER THE AREA COULD BE AN ISSUE. THE GFS AND
ECMWF FORECAST THE TROUGH/LOW WILL SWEEP MOISTURE OFF TO THE
EAST...LEAVING DRY AND STABLE CONDITIONS AREAWIDE FOR MUCH OF THE
DAY FRIDAY WITH NO PRECIPITATION FORECAST. THE 06Z NAM12, WHICH RUNS
THROUGH MID DAY FRIDAY, STILL GENERATES PRECIP OVER THE EASTERN CWA
IN THE MORNING SO LEFT CHANCE POPS IN LINCOLN/MOHAVE COUNTY IN THE
MORNING TO ACCOUNT FOR THIS BUT THEN LOWERED CHANCES AGAIN IN THE
AFTERNOON AS THE DRY/STABLE AIR PUSHES IN.

LOW FORECAST CONFIDENCE IN THE SAT-MON TIME PERIOD AS MODEL
SOLUTIONS DIVERGE REGARDING HOW THE LOW EVOLVES. THE ECMWF FORMS A
CLOSED LOW OFF THE COAST EARLY SATURDAY AND THEN RETROGRADES IT
WESTWARD OUT TO SEA THROUGH SUNDAY BEFORE BRINGING IT BACK INLAND ON
MONDAY. THIS LEAVES THE ENTIRE FORECAST AREA DRY ALL WEEKEND WITH
CHANCES FOR PRECIPITATION INCREASING AGAIN ON MONDAY. THE GFS DROPS
THE LOW TO NEAR SAN DIEGO SATURDAY AND THEN SLOWLY MOVES IT ACROSS
THE FORECAST AREA SUNDAY AND MONDAY. MOISTURE AND INSTABILITY
INCREASES, ESPECIALLY ACROSS THE SOUTHERN CWA AND THE GFS GENERATES
QPF ACROSS MUCH OF THE AREA BOTH SUNDAY AND MONDAY AS THE LOW
INTERACTS WITH THE MOISTURE. MAINTAINED A MENTION OF THUNDER ACROSS
PORTIONS OF THE AREA SAT-MON TO ACCOUNT FOR THE VARIOUS SOLUTIONS.

TEMPERATURES SHOULD GENERALLY RUN A FEW DEGREES BELOW NORMAL WITH
TROUGHING OVER THE AREA FRI-MON PER THE GFS/GEM HOWEVER, IF THE
ECMWF SOLUTION DOES PAN OUT, THE WEEKEND WOULD BE WARMER/SUNNIER
WITH TEMPERATURES NEAR OR SLIGHTLY ABOVE NORMAL.
&&

.AVIATION...FOR MCCARRAN...SOUTH-SOUTHEAST WINDS ARE LIKELY TO
INCREASE EARLY THIS EVENING TO AROUND 10-12 KTS...THEN SETTLING TO
SOUTH UNDER 10 KTS AFTER 06Z THIS EVENING. SCT CUMULUS DEVELOPING
THIS AFTERNOON WITH ISOLATED TO SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS MAINLY
LIMITED TO THE PEACH SPRINGS CORRIDOR AND THE SURROUNDING MOUNTAINS.
ERRATIC WINDS DUE TO THUNDERSTORM OUTFLOW BOUNDARIES CANNOT BE RULED
OUT LATER THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING. WEDNESDAY...MORE AFTERNOON
THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY CAN BE EXPECTED ESPECIALLY IN THE AFOR
MENTIONED PEACH SPRINGS CORRIDOR AND HIGHER TERRAIN AROUND LAS
VEGAS.

FOR THE REST OF SOUTHERN NEVADA...NORTHWEST ARIZONA...AND SOUTHEAST
CALIFORNIA...LIGHT WINDS EARLY WILL GENERALLY BECOME SOUTHERLY 10-15
KTS MUCH OF TODAY THROUGH THIS EVENING. ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS ARE
EXPECTED OVER MOST OF MOHAVE AND SAN BERNARDINO COUNTIES AND PERHAPS
SOUTHERN CLARK COUNTY THIS AFTERNOON AND EARLY EVENING. THUNDERSTORM
CHANCES WILL INCREASE FROM SOUTH TO NORTH WEDNESDAY AND LINGER INTO
THURSDAY.
&&

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...
SPOTTERS ARE ENCOURAGED TO REPORT ANY SIGNIFICANT WEATHER CONDITIONS
ACCORDING TO STANDARD OPERATING PROCEDURES.
&&

LERICOS

FOR MORE FORECAST INFORMATION...SEE US ON OUR WEBPAGE:

HTTP://WEATHER.GOV/LASVEGAS OR FOLLOW US ON FACEBOOK AND TWITTER

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LAS VEGAS NV
346 PM PDT TUE SEP 16 2014

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0330 PM     FLASH FLOOD      1 NNE JOSHUA TREE       34.14N 116.32W
09/16/2014                   SAN BERNARDINO     CA   FIRE DEPT/RESCUE

            FIRE DEPARTMENT REPORTS SIGNIFICANT FLOODING ACROSS
            HIGHWAY 62 NEAR PARK BLVD. FLOOD CHANNELS ARE FLOWING BUT
            NOT YEAT AT CAPACITY.

0333 PM     HAIL             2 S JOSHUA TREE         34.10N 116.32W
09/16/2014  E1.00 INCH       SAN BERNARDINO     CA   TRAINED SPOTTER

            SPOTTER REPORTS QUARTER SIZE HAIL WITH VERY HIGH WIND
            GUSTS ESTIMATED AT 40 MPH

0333 PM     HEAVY RAIN       2 S JOSHUA TREE         34.10N 116.32W
09/16/2014  M0.00 INCH       SAN BERNARDINO     CA   TRAINED SPOTTER

            OVER 1.0 INCH OF RAIN IN ABOUT 25 MIN REPORTED BY A
            SPOTTER IN JOSHUA TREE.

0337 PM     FLASH FLOOD      4 N JOSHUA TREE         34.18N 116.32W
09/16/2014                   SAN BERNARDINO     CA   FIRE DEPT/RESCUE

            FIRE DEPARTMENT REPORTS HOME FLOODED ON OUTPOST ROAD IN
            JOSHUA TREE

0344 PM     FLASH FLOOD      2 SW JOSHUA TREE        34.11N 116.34W
09/16/2014                   SAN BERNARDINO     CA   FIRE DEPT/RESCUE

            HOUSE FLOODED ON NAVAJO TRAIL NEAR SUNNY VISTA

&&

TLERICOS