Flash Flood Warning 78, NWS Tucson, AZ

585 
WGUS75 KTWC 082010
FFSTWC

FLASH FLOOD STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TUCSON AZ
110 PM MST WED OCT 8 2014

AZC019-082115-
/O.CON.KTWC.FF.W.0078.000000T0000Z-141008T2115Z/
/00000.0.ER.000000T0000Z.000000T0000Z.000000T0000Z.OO/
PIMA AZ-
110 PM MST WED OCT 8 2014

...A FLASH FLOOD WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 215 PM MST FOR
NORTHEASTERN PIMA COUNTY...

HEAVY DOWNPOURS HAD MOVED THROUGH EASTERN SECTIONS OF THE GREATER 
TUCSON AREA...WITH A LARGE AREA OF STEADY LIGHT TO MODERATE RAINFALL 
OVER SPREADING NORTHEAST PIMA COUNTY EARLY THIS AFTERNOON. RUNOFF 
FROM THE HEAVY DOWNPOURS IN ADDITION TO THE STEADY LIGHT TO MODERATE 
RAINFALL WILL CONTINUE TO CAUSE FLOODING PROBLEMS THROUGH 215 PM 
MST. THE KOLB ROAD AND GOLFLINKS AREA RECEIVED 1.22 INCHES OF RAIN 
AS THE HEAVIER SHOWERS MOVED THROUGH THAT AREA. OTHER LOCATIONS ON 
THE EAST SIDE OF TUCSON RECEIVED ANYWHERE FROM ONE-HALF TO 
THREE-FOURTHS OF AN INCH IN LESS THAN 30 MINUTES. 

CONDITIONS WILL IMPROVE FOR THE RUSH HOUR COMMUTE. 

LAT...LON 3248 11084 3247 11051 3213 11054 3216 11091

$$

091 
WGUS75 KTWC 082121
FFSTWC

FLASH FLOOD STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TUCSON AZ
221 PM MST WED OCT 8 2014

AZC019-082129-
/O.EXP.KTWC.FF.W.0078.000000T0000Z-141008T2115Z/
/00000.0.ER.000000T0000Z.000000T0000Z.000000T0000Z.OO/
PIMA AZ-
221 PM MST WED OCT 8 2014

...THE FLASH FLOOD WARNING HAS EXPIRED FOR NORTHEASTERN PIMA
COUNTY...

HEAVY RAINFALL HAD ENDED AND THE LIGHT RAIN WILL CONTINUED TO 
DIMINISH ACROSS THE AREA. THAT SAID...THE WARNING WAS ALLOWED TO 
EXPIRE ON TIME. SOME PONDING OF WATER ON CITY STREETS AND FLOWS IN 
NORMALLY DRY WASHES CAN BE EXPECTED...BUT IMPROVING CONDITIONS WILL 
CONTINUE FOR THE RUSH HOUR COMMUTE. 

LAT...LON 3248 11084 3247 11051 3213 11054 3216 11091

$$

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TUCSON AZ
914 AM MST WED OCT 8 2014

.SYNOPSIS...AMPLE MOISTURE WILL PROVIDE SHOWERS AND ISOLATED
THUNDERSTORMS INTO THIS EVENING. LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL WILL BE
POSSIBLE ALTHOUGH WIDESPREAD FLOODING IS NOT ANTICIPATED. RAIN WILL
TAPER FROM SOUTHWEST TO NORTHEAST ON THURSDAY...THEN EXPECT DRY
CONDITIONS THIS WEEKEND AND EARLY NEXT WEEK. BELOW NORMAL DAYTIME
TEMPERATURES WILL PREVAIL INTO THURSDAY FOLLOWED BY A WARMING TREND
FRIDAY THROUGH THIS WEEKEND.

&&

.DISCUSSION...THE BULK OF THE RAINFALL CONTINUED ACROSS THE TOHONO
O'ODHAM NATION AND WESTERN PIMA COUNTY THIS MORNING. THE RAIN HAS
BEEN STEADY AND MODERATE SINCE LAST NIGHT AND SOME OF THE LARGER
WASHES IN THE AREA WERE STARTING TO RESPOND TO THE RUNOFF THIS
MORNING. THAT SAID...THE FORECAST LOOKED ON TRACK WITH THE BULK OF
THE RAINFALL SHIFTING EASTWARD TODAY WITH THE MID-LEVEL TROUGH AXIS.
NO UPDATES NECESSARY AT THIS TIME...SO PLEASE REFER TO THE PREVIOUS
DISCUSSION AND ADDITIONAL SECTIONS IN THIS PRODUCT FOR MORE
DETAILS.

&&

.AVIATION...VALID THRU 09/12Z.
ABUNDANT MOISTURE MOVING ACROSS THE REGION WITH MULTIPLE CLOUD
LAYERS AOA 5K FT AGL THROUGH TONIGHT. LOCAL MVFR CIGS UNDER AND
AROUND HEAVIER SHOWERS. AREA OF SHOWERS MOVING NORTH THROUGH GRAHAM
AND GREENLEE COUNTIES BY 08/14Z WITH WIDELY SCATTERED SHOWERS FOR
THE REST OF THE AREA THIS MORNING. SHOWER ACTIVITY IS EXPECTED TO
INCREASE THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING ESPECIALLY WEST OF BENSON THEN
TRANSLATE EAST LATER TONIGHT. ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS ARE POSSIBLE
THROUGH THIS EVENING. SURFACE WIND WILL GENERALLY BE LESS THAN 12
KTS WITH BRIEF GUSTY WINDS POSSIBLE NEAR STRONGER SHOWERS OR
THUNDERSTORMS. AVIATION DISCUSSION NOT UPDATED FOR TAF AMENDMENTS.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...TROPICAL MOISTURE ACROSS THE REGION COMBINED WITH AN
UPPER LEVEL TROUGH WILL RESULT IN PLENTY OF SHOWER ACTIVITY THROUGH
TONIGHT...WITH ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS POSSIBLE AS WELL. THERE
REMAINS A CHANCE FOR SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS THURSDAY AS THE UPPER
TROUGH MOVES ACROSS THE REGION WITH DRYING FOLLOWING FRIDAY THROUGH
THIS WEEKEND. SOUTHERN AREAS WILL HAVE A SOUTHERLY BREEZE OF 10-15
MPH THIS AFTERNOON WITH LOCALLY GUSTY WINDS POSSIBLE ANYWHERE TODAY
AROUND ANY THUNDERSTORMS. BEYOND THAT...20-FOOT WINDS WILL GENERALLY
BE LESS THAN 15 MPH EXCEPT FOR POTENTIALLY STRONG NORTHWEST WINDS
DOWN THE GILA VALLEY FRIDAY AND SUNDAY AFTERNOONS DUE TO A PASSING
TROUGH.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION...THE BULK OF THE ONGOING SHOWERS WAS ASSOCIATED
WITH A MID/UPPER LEVEL TROUGH WHICH WILL SHIFT THE RAINFALL EWD INTO
CENTRAL SECTIONS...INCLUDING THE TUCSON METRO AREA...EARLY THIS
AFTERNOON.

PRECIP-FREE CONDITIONS SHOULD BE THE RULE EARLY THIS AFTERNOON
ACROSS GREENLEE/GRAHAM/COCHISE COUNTIES. THE MID/UPPER LEVEL VORT
MAX WILL CONTINUE TO MOVE NEWD THIS AFTERNOON AND THIS EVENING. THE
RESULTANT AREA OF RAINFALL IS EXPECTED TO EXPAND EWD FOLLOWED BY
GRADUALLY DECREASING CHANCES OF RAIN ESPECIALLY ACROSS WRN SECTIONS
LATE TONIGHT. GIVEN THE FAIRLY FAST STORM MOTIONS...THE PROSPECT FOR
WIDESPREAD FLOODING IS NOT ANTICIPATED AT THIS TIME.

HOWEVER...LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL MAY YET OCCUR...WITH THE PERIOD OF
HEAVIEST RAINFALL MOST LIKELY THIS AFTERNOON INTO THIS EVENING. POPS
WERE ADJUSTED UPWARD SIGNIFICANTLY ESPECIALLY FROM TUCSON WWD WITH
THE BELIEF THAT MOST LOCALES WILL RECEIVE AT LEAST A HUNDREDTH OF AN
INCH OF RAINFALL. SCATTERED SHOWERS AND ISOLATED TSTMS WILL STILL BE
A POSSIBILITY ACROSS MUCH OF SE AZ LATE TONIGHT INTO THUR AS THE MID-
LEVEL TROUGH AXIS MOVES FROM WRN AZ AND TOWARD THE NEW MEXICO BORDER
BY THUR EVENING. THERE SHOULD BE ENOUGH RESIDUAL MOISTURE FOR A
SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHOWERS/TSTMS MAINLY FROM TUCSON EWD THUR NIGHT.
DRY CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL ACROSS WRN PIMA COUNTY. A FEW LINGERING
SHOWERS MAY OCCUR ACROSS THE WHITE MOUNTAINS FRI. OTHERWISE...EXPECT
DRY CONDITIONS FRI-TUE UNDER GENERALLY NWLY FLOW ALOFT.

BASED ON THE ANTICIPATED CLOUDINESS AND RAIN POTENTIAL...HAVE
LOWERED THE INHERITED HIGH TEMPS FOR TODAY BY SEVERAL DEGS...
ESPECIALLY FROM TUCSON WWD. THUS...HIGH TEMPS TODAY AND THUR WILL
AVERAGE ABOUT 5-10 DEGS F OR SO BELOW NORMAL. A WARMING TREND WILL
BEGIN FRI AND CONTINUE THIS WEEKEND...AND DAYTIME TEMPS MON-TUE WILL
TREND WITHIN A DEGREE-OR-TWO OF NORMAL VALUES FOR MID-OCTOBER.

&&

.TWC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...NONE.

VISIT US ON FACEBOOK...TWITTER...YOUTUBE...AND AT WEATHER.GOV/TUCSON

PREV DISCUSSION...FRANCIS
AVIATION/FIRE WEATHER...CERNIGLIA

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TUCSON AZ
1145 AM MST WED OCT 08 2014

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

1122 AM     FLOOD            1 WSW SAN SIMON VILLAGE 32.19N 112.38W
10/08/2014                   PIMA               AZ   LAW ENFORCEMENT

            HIGHWAY 86 IMPASSIBLE AT SEVERAL LOCATIONS BETWEEN MILE
            MARKERS 79 AND 106. ROUTE 21 CLOSED AT SANTA CRUZ.

&&

EVENT NUMBER TWC1400128

KD