Flash Flood Warning 65, NWS Tucson, AZ

055 
WGUS75 KTWC 081729
FFSTWC

FLASH FLOOD STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TUCSON AZ
1029 AM MST MON SEP 8 2014

AZC019-081830-
/O.CON.KTWC.FF.W.0065.000000T0000Z-140908T1830Z/
/00000.0.ER.000000T0000Z.000000T0000Z.000000T0000Z.OO/
PIMA AZ-
1029 AM MST MON SEP 8 2014

...A FLASH FLOOD WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 1130 AM MST FOR EAST
CENTRAL PIMA COUNTY...SOUTHEAST GREATER TUCSON AREA...

AT 1020 AM MST...RADAR WAS SHOWING SOMEWHAT A LULL IN THE HEAVY 
RAINFALL ACROSS PORTIONS OF THE SOUTHEAST GREATER TUCSON AREA AROUND 
RITA RANCH AND VAIL WHERE HEAVY DOWNPOURS OCCURRED EARLIER THIS 
MORNING. EVEN THOUGH THE HEAVY RAIN HAD ENDED...RADAR WAS SHOWING 
SOME ADDITIONAL SHOWERS DEVELOPING SOUTH OF THE AREA WHICH WILL 
TRACK THROUGH PORTIONS OF VAIL BY 1130 AM. ALSO...HEAVY RUNOFF FROM 
EARLIER RAIN WILL CONTINUE TO RESULT IN PONDING OF WATER ON ROAD 
WAYS AND ELEVATED FLOWS IN AREA WASHES AND SMALL STREAMS. 

LOCATIONS IN THE WARNING INCLUDE BUT ARE NOT LIMITED TO SAGUARO 
NATIONAL PARK EAST...RITA RANCH...AND PORTIONS OF VAIL. 

REMEMBER...ADDITIONAL FLASH FLOOD WARNINGS REMAIN IN EFFECT FOR 
PORTIONS OF TUCSON NORTHWARD TO THE CATALINA FOOTHILLS AND ORACLE. 
IN ADDITION...A FLASH FLOOD WATCH REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR ALL OF 
SOUTHEAST ARIZONA UNTIL MIDNIGHT TONIGHT. 

LAT...LON 3225 11079 3220 11067 3216 11060 3190 11077
      3203 11092

$$

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TUCSON AZ
336 AM MST MON SEP 8 2014

.SYNOPSIS...SCATTERED SHOWERS ARE EXPECTED TO INCREASE IN COVERAGE
AND INTENSITY TODAY THROUGH TONIGHT. SOME OF THESE STORMS WILL
PRODUCE HEAVY RAIN. MOISTURE WILL BEGIN TO DIMINISH ON WESTERLY FLOW
TUESDAY ONWARD FOR A BRIEF DRY PERIOD FROM LATE WEDNESDAY THROUGH
LATE THURSDAY WITH AFTERNOON TEMPERATURES RISING BACK TO NORMAL
LEVELS DURING THAT TIME. LOW END RAIN CHANCES WILL RETURN LATE NEXT
WEEK AND INTO THE WEEKEND...BUT MAINLY EAST OF TUCSON.

&&

.DISCUSSION...NORBERT HAS BEEN DOWNGRADED TO JUST A POST-TROPICAL
CYCLONE...WITH THE LATEST POSITION AS OF 2 AM PDT/MST NEAR 27.4 DEG
N; 118.3 DEGS W. THE SYSTEM WILL CONTINUE TO DECREASE IN INTENSITY
DURING THE NEXT 24 HOURS BECOMING JUST A REMNANT LOW OFF THE WEST
COAST OF THE NORTH CENTRAL BAJA PENINSULA AS IT MAKES A HARD TURN TO
THE EAST ON TUESDAY.

NEEDLESS TO SAY...THE FORECAST PROCESS DURING THE PAST 24 HOURS HAS
BEEN A CHALLENGE AND CONTINUES TO BE THIS MORNING. WATER VAPOR
IMAGERY SHOWS HIGH PRESSURE CENTERED TO OUR SOUTH OVER NORTHERN
MEXICO WITH WESTERLY WINDS ALOFT OVER MUCH OF ARIZONA. MEANWHILE...
FLOW IN THE LOWER TO MID LEVELS IS FROM THE SOUTHEAST AND WILL
BECOME SOUTHERLY AS THE DAY PROGRESSES. YESTERDAY EVENINGS KTWC
SOUNDING INDICATED A PRECIPITABLE WATER VALUE OF 1.60 INCHES. THE
LATEST SATELLITE DERIVED BLENDED TOTAL PRECIPITABLE WATER IMAGERY
SHOWS VALUES JUST OVER THE 1 INCH MARK FOR THE WHITE MOUNTAINS AND
INCREASING TO ABOVE THE 2 INCH MARK FOR THE WESTERN DESERTS OF PIMA
COUNTY...WHICH INCLUDES THE TOHONO O'ODHAM NATION...AJO AND ALSO THE
YUMA AREA...INCLUDING MUCH OF THE COLORADO RIVER VALLEY AS FAR NORTH
AS NEEDLES CALIFORNIA.

THE LATEST IR SATELLITE IMAGERY SHOWS EXTENSIVE LOW TO MID LEVEL
CLOUDINESS COVERING A LARGE PART OF SOUTHEAST ARIZONA AND EXTENDING
NORTHWEST THROUGH THE PHOENIX AREA AND TOWARDS SOUTHERN NEVADA.
RADAR MOSAIC FROM THE PAST 3 TO 4 HOURS HAS BEEN SHOWING INCREASING
SHOWER AND THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY BETWEEN THE NORTHERN FRINGES OF MY
FORECAST AREA FROM PINAL COUNTY INTO THE HEART OF MARICOPA COUNTY
AND NORTHWEST FROM THERE TO NEAR WICKENBURG...PRESCOTT AND LAKE
HAVASU CITY. PREVIOUS MODEL RUNS HAVE SHOWN CONSIDERABLE DIFFERENCES
RECENTLY WITH REGARD TO QPF VALUES...WITH THE NAM BEING MUCH MORE
AGGRESSIVE THAN SOME OF THE OTHER MODELS. THE 00Z RUN DID NOT
INITIALIZED VERY WELL AND WAS SHOWING A 2.5 INCH BULLSEYE OF QPF
BETWEEN 08/00Z-08/06Z NEAR NOGALES...WHICH DID NOT MATERIALIZE. THE
08/06Z NAM IS MUCH TAMER THAN THE PREVIOUS RUN...BUT STILL THE
OUTLIER WITH RESPECT TO AMOUNTS AND LOCATIONS OF QPF. AT THIS POINT
A BLEND OF THE GFS AND ECMWF SEEMS MORE REASONABLE GIVEN THAT THEY
ARE FOCUSED ON THE CURRENT RADAR TRENDS AT LEAST. ONE CAVEAT TO THIS
IS THAT THE SHOWERS AND STORMS IN THE PHOENIX AREA THIS MORNING HAVE
BEEN VERY HEAVY RAINERS...WITH ONE SPOTTER IN THE AREA REPORTING
0.75 INCHES OF RAIN IN 10 MINUTES NEAR MESA DR. & 8TH ST. JUST AFTER
3 AM...NOT TO MENTION SOME WATER OVER SOME OF THE ROADWAYS IN THE
PHOENIX METRO.

AS THE WINDS BECOME MORE SOUTHERLY TODAY...EXPECT TO SEE STORMS FIRE
OFF IN THE JUICY AIRMASS OVER THE REGION WITH STORMS FILLING IN OVER
WESTERN PORTIONS OF PIMA COUNTY EARLY THIS MORNING...WITH CONVECTION
INCREASING THROUGHOUT THE DAY. WILL KEEP THE FLASH FLOOD WATCH GOING
STARTING MID MORNING AND CONTINUING THROUGH THE LATE EVENING HOURS
TONIGHT. DAY SHIFT CAN REVISIT WHETHER PARTS OF THE WATCH CAN BE
REMOVED GIVEN THE SATELLITE AND RADAR TRENDS DURING THEIR SHIFT.

AS THE PACIFIC TROUGH CONTINUES TO MAKE ITS WAY TOWARD THE WEST
COAST AND EVENTUALLY TOWARD WESTERN ARIZONA BY LATE TUESDAY...WE
WILL HANG ON TO LINGERING RAIN CHANCES TUESDAY...ALTHOUGH GENERALLY
JUST SCATTERED TYPE POPS AND MAINLY EAST OF TUCSON TOWARD NEW
MEXICO.

A CONTINUED SLIGHT THREAT FOR SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WEDNESDAY AS
THE TROUGH AXIS CONTINUES TO BE DRAPED ACROSS NORTHERN NEW MEXICO
AND NORTHERN ARIZONA AND TOWARD NORTHERN BAJA.

BY THURSDAY THE RIDGE IS EXPECTED TO BE CENTERED NEAR THE COAST OF
LOUISIANA WITH THE RIDGE AXIS EXTENDING WEST TOWARD NORTHERN SONORA
AND EXTREME SOUTHEAST ARIZONA...WHICH SHOULD KEEP OUR THUNDERSTORM
THREAT IN JUST THE SLIGHT CHANCE CATEGORY.

BY FRIDAY AND INTO THE WEEKEND MOISTURE SHOULD INCREASE AGAIN AS A
LONG FETCH OF SOUTHEAST FLOW ON THE SOUTHERLY FLANK OF THE RIDGE
PULLS MOISTURE INTO ARIZONA DURING THAT TIME FRAME. THEREFORE...
EXPECT MOSTLY ISOLATED COVERAGE OF THUNDERSTORMS...MAINLY EAST OF
TUCSON...WITH PERHAPS A BETTER CHANCE OVER THE MOUNTAINS.

HIGH TEMPERATURES WILL GENERALLY BE BELOW NORMAL TODAY THROUGH
WEDNESDAY...WITH THE COOLEST DAY OCCURRING TODAY...WHEN HIGHS ARE
EXPECTED TO BE ABOUT 7 TO 10 DEGS BELOW NORMAL. BY WEDNESDAY HIGHS
RANGING FROM 2 TO 4 DEGS BELOW NORMAL. NEAR NORMAL HIGHS FOR
THURSDAY...THEN 1 TO 3 DEGS ABOVE NORMAL FOR FRIDAY THROUGH THE
WEEKEND. LOW TEMPS ARE EXPECTED TO BE ABOVE NORMAL THROUGHOUT THE
FORECAST PERIOD...WITH HIGHS RANGING FROM 2 TO 5 DEGS ABOVE NORMAL
EACH MORNING...ALTHOUGH THE WARMEST MORNINGS SHOULD OCCUR FRIDAY AND
SATURDAY.

&&

.AVIATION...VALID THRU 09/12Z
ISOLD-SCT -SHRA/-TSRA TIL 08/17Z THEN SCT-NUMEROUS SHRA/TSRA
EXPECTED THRU 09/02Z.  AREAS OF CEILINGS AT 5-8K FT AGL WITH
MULTIPLE LEVELS ABV.  LOCAL MVFR CEILINGS/VSBYS WITH THE STRONGER
TSRA.  SURFACE WIND GENERALLY LESS THAN 10 KTS EXCEPT GUSTY OUTFLOW
WINDS IN THE VICINITY OF THUNDERSTORMS.  AVIATION DISCUSSION NOT
UPDATED FOR TAF AMENDMENTS.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...DEEP MOISTURE ACROSS THE REGION WILL MAINTAIN THE
THREAT FOR SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS THE AREA THROUGH THIS
EVENING.  ANY STORMS THAT DEVELOP WILL BE CAPABLE OF PRODUCING HEAVY
RAIN WITH THE POTENTIAL FOR LOCAL FLOODING PROBLEMS.  20-FOOT WINDS
WILL GENERALLY BE LIGHT AND TERRAIN DRIVEN...EXCEPT FOR STRONG GUSTY
OUTFLOWS ASSOCIATED WITH THUNDERSTORMS.  THE DEEP MOISTURE OVER THE
REGION WILL DIMINISH TUESDAY ONWARD RESULTING IN A DECREASING THREAT
OF CONVECTION ACROSS THE AREA.

&&

.TWC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
      FLASH FLOOD WATCH FROM 10 AM MST THIS MORNING THROUGH MIDNIGHT
      THIS EVENING FOR ALL OF SOUTHEAST ARIZONA INCLUDING AZZ501>515.

&&

VISIT US ON FACEBOOK...TWITTER...YOUTUBE...AND AT WEATHER.GOV/TUCSON

PUBLIC...MOLLERE
AVIATION/FIRE WEATHER...CERNIGLIA

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TUCSON AZ
922 AM MST MON SEP 08 2014

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0919 AM     FLASH FLOOD      3 N DAVIS-MONTHAN AIR F 32.22N 110.87W
09/08/2014                   PIMA               AZ   NWS EMPLOYEE

            SAW A CAR STALLED IN FLOOD WATERS NEAR PARK PLACE MALL

&&

EVENT NUMBER TWC1400108

KD